ABI Research. June Stuart Carlaw. Chief Research Officer Scottsdale New York London Singapore.







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ABI Research

June 2013

Stuart Carlaw


About Us

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Proven - Founded 1990 • Objective- Privately owned • Global- HQ in Oyster Bay, NY

with 7 offices around the world • Expert- Analysts spanning 19

Research Practices and 69 Research Services

Comprehensive- 3146 Products Published in 2012

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• The cloud versus edge debate and the ramifications of SDN and EFV, new breed of network vendors and the impact of economics

• Radical changes in the device market change user experiences and alter problem areas

• The shift from a network of consumers to a network of machines • Some near-term concerns


Cloud Versus Edge Simplistic

Transport Control Intelligence Content

Internet Internet Transport Control, Intelligence, Content Network Vendor Approach or Internet Company Approach


Cloud Versus Edge Optimistic

Transport Control Intelligence Content

Internet Internet Transport, Control, Intelligence, Content Universal Complexity, Clash of Agenda, Confusion.


Infrastructure Market Shifts

Clash of Big Iron Telecoms and IT

• Offload • Small Cells • Carrier Wi-Fi • Policy • Optimization • Video • SON • Customer Experience Management • Network API • SDN • NFV B of B Specialists


Net Result

What Goes into the Box – Will differ by Agenda

Consistent Messaging to Carriers and Customers - complexity and Time to Ramp.

Acquisition, Consolidation and Ecosystem – Not all Partners will be there for the Long Haul

All the Specialists - Choose your Partner Carefully.


Smartphone Market Axis Shift

Value Shift

2013 Smartphones by Price 2018 Smartphones by Price

Smartphone Revenues by Market

Smartphone by Price Band

Top end of the market is saturating.

Attention is moving to the emerging markets.

Focus on Smartphones as primary on-boarding for computing is driving costs lower.

Impact of PCB-A/Ref D model and Android lowering barriers to entry.

OEM mix is changing.

Silicon market is also adapting.

Opportunity is being driven out of the market.


Smartphone Market Axis Shift

Innovation is Key







9300 Sept 2010 2Q 2012 Volume Crash N8 Aug 2010 1Q 2012 Volume Crash 21 Months 18 Months 1. Samsung 2. Google

3. Huawei, Lenovo, White Label & Low Cost

4. PCB-A & Ref D - Shanzai 5. Micro-vendors


Net Result

Emerging Market Exposed to the Data Tsunami.

Do you Need to IoT and Who With?

Who is Shaping the Mobile Experience?

Emerging Market Pricing Pressure.

Is Pure Connectivity Enough?


Network of Machines

2013 is seen by many as the year of the Internet of Everything, it will be many years until it reaches its full potential but the next 5 years will be pivotal in its growth and establishment as a tangible concept to the consumer, government or enterprise.

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (B ill io n s ) Others Smart Cities

Retail and Advertising Mobile Devices mHealth

Government, Aerospace, and Defense Connected Home and PCs


M2M/IoE Revenues – Where is the Money?

Cellular M2M Short Range Wireless M2M

Hardware Connectivity VAS

2% 38% 60% 1 % 99% Global Revenues Cellular Voice/Data 26% 68% 6% *Hardware = M2M Modules

*Hardware = Short-range wireless ICs




Platform fees


Next Generation VAS – M2M/IoE

• Social Media Integration • Intelligent Products • Structured and Unstructured Data • Revenue enhancement and customer stickiness • Privacy

• New Pricing Models




Look, Market, Develop Beyond the Consumer – Long Term Game

The Concept of Application Coverage Applies - Coverage Don’t Underestimate Raw Traffic Impact - Capacity

Work with Standards Bodies Controlling the Indirect Connectivity Piece – Extend Reach

Open API to M2M SDP and AEP Owners – Extend Value Prop

Make Sure Core network Assets are Dimensioned and Optimised

for IoE


Near Term Concerns & Observations

Scaling OSS to Small Cells, at least an order of magnitude increase needed

Complexity of deployment and operation underestimated by many MNO’s – slows

market ramp.

LTE uptake faster than expected, so more emphasis to recycle spectrum

Carrier-Grade and Smart Wi-Fi encroaches on licensed spectrum Small Cell Market

and may throttle licensed small cell growth

Neutral host small cell – may be required by municipalities looking to minimize lamp

post “clutter”

X2 interoperability – can small cells be “mixed and matched” in a macro RAN


Multivendor SON interoperability in a “mix n match” underlay


Thank you!

Stuart Carlaw






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