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CHINA 2050 HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION SCENARIO AND RODAMAP STUDY

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国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所

Energy Research Institute National Development and Reform Commission

CHINA 2050 HIGH RENEWABLE

ENERGY PENETRATION SCENARIO

AND RODAMAP STUDY

CHINA NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY CENTER

ENERGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF NDRC

(2)
(3)

Partnership

Core Working Group:

(4)

High Renewable Energy Penetration Scenario

Economic Dreams

Ecological Dreams

生态文明是人类文明的重要标志

To get rid of fossil fuels is our

global development trend.

Ecological civilization is the

moral high ground of human

development.

THE ACHIEVEMENT of “CHINA 2050 HIGH RE

PENETRATION SCENARIO” IS the KEY FACTOR for

OUR “BEAUTIFUL CHINA”

(5)

THE ACHIEVEMENT of “CHINA 2050 HIGH RE

PENETRATION SCENARIO” IS VISION AND

CONSENSUS OF THE WHOLE SOCIETY

Energy Strategy

—Low Carbon and Green

Electricity for Future

Social Economic

—Middle Level of

Developed Country

Ecological

Environment

—Blue Air and

Green Water

(6)

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

GDP:4b CNY

GDP:28.2b CNY,7

times the GDP in 2010

2010

2013

2020

2030

(7)

ECOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENT

CO2 Emissions (b tons)

6.7 7.25

3.02

2010 2011 2050

2010

1990

3.99t

4.44t

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

SO2 NOx PM10 PM2.5 Atmo

Hg

China USA EU

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2050

The emission trends of various main air pollutants

SO2 10k tons

NOx smoke and dust

10k tons

Below the level of

emissions in 1980

Pollutant Emissions

3b tons of annual

CO2 emissions, 2.17

tons of emissions

per capita

CO2 Emissions

The level of global

average emissions

1.4b tons in 2050,

3.2b tons in 2010

(8)

MAIN CALCULATED RESULTS for HIGH

RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION in 2050

The rate of

electrification to be

higher than 60% in

end-use energy

consumption

The proportion of

non-fossil energy

generation to be

higher than 91%

3.4billion tce of

primary energy

supply , and 3.2billion

tce of end-use energy

consumption

3X

22%

62%

2010

2050

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000

Twh

2400GW of wind capacity ,

2600GW of solar power

capacity , and 9660TWh of total

annual power generation

2010

2050

2.7b

(9)

HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION

SCENARIO: PARTHWAY

TEN CONLUSIONS OR

TEN THINKS?

(10)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0

Coal

Oil Nature Gas

Nuclear Hydro Wind

Biomass Bio fuel Solar Power

SWH & Geothermal RE Share

Primary Energy Supply(billion tce, thermal equivalent )

BY 2050, RENEWABLE ENERGY COULD MEET MORE

THAN 60% OF PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND

(11)

HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION WILL

PROMOTE FOSSIL ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND

CARBON EMISSIONS TO PEAK BY 2025

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Units: million tce

7.8 8.5

9.2 9.2

8.2 6.5 5.3 4.1 3.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Reference High penetration

Units : billion tons

Metal smelting Services Residents Transport Argriculture

(12)

RENEWABLE POWER IS THE ESSENTIAL

REPLACEMENT FOR FOSSIL ENERY

22% 23% 29% 41% 53% 67% 78% 84% 86% 28% 34% 46% 57% 71% 82% 88% 91%

TWh

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000

2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

COAL NAT_GAS FUELOIL NUCLEAR Hydro

WIND SOLAR MUNI_WASTE BIOGAS STRAW

(13)

WIND POWER AND SOLAR POWER WILL BECOME

IMPORTANT PILLARS OF THE FUTURE POWER

SUPPLY

Development Phase Diagram of Wind and Solar power in High Penetration Scenario

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000

20112013 2015201720192021202320252027 2029203120332035203720392041 2043204520472049

Wind PV&CSP

2020,307GW

2020,174GW

2040, 2204GW

(14)

HIGHER ELECTRIFICATION RATE BRING

HUMAN SOCIETY INTO MORE HIGHER LEVEL

OF CIVILIZATION FORMATION

26% 33% 37% 41% 47% 51% 54% 59% 62% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Coal Oil

products Nature Gas Electricityconsumption Bio fuel SWHGeo thermal Electrification share

(15)

TRANSFORM THE ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION

NETWORK TO A PLARTFORM FOR OPTIMIZING

RESCOURES ALLOCATION

(16)

国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所

Energy Research Institute National Development and Reform Commission

TECHNOLOGICAL AND INSTITUTIONAL

INNOVATION IS THE FOUNDATION BUILA A HIGH

RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION POWER SYSTEM

RE

Thermal power Hydro power Wind power PV

Power System

Flexibility

Wireless charging

储能电站

Forecast Flexible generation Driverless EV EV Driverless EV

Charging Station

Mobile Station

Bidding at power market

Coordinate EVs with smart vehicle network, driverless cars and wireless charging technology

Business model: charging and

discharging services, and shared EV services

Recycle Battery,

provide energy storage service to Grid

Integration Operator

Demand

Response

Ancillary

Services

Power

Generation

Regulation

Output

Regulation

Smart metering Virtual data center

Power Market

(17)

BUILDING A HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY

PENETRATION POWER SYSTEM AT A SMALL OR

NON-INCREMENTAL COST

kWh Cost Development Trend in High Penetration Scenario

2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Transmission Cost 0.180 0.182 0.183 0.185 0.190 0.199 0.213 0.230 0.250 Start-up costs 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.005 0.005 0.005 Fuel Cost 0.276 0.259 0.262 0.233 0.186 0.143 0.111 0.094 0.080 Variable O&M 0.022 0.021 0.019 0.016 0.014 0.011 0.010 0.010 0.010 Fixed O&M 0.023 0.028 0.029 0.035 0.040 0.044 0.050 0.053 0.054 Capital Cost 0.244 0.212 0.196 0.212 0.240 0.266 0.285 0.285 0.287

0.746

0.701 0.689 0.683 0.672

0.666 0.674 0.678 0.685

0.000 0.100 0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500 0.600 0.700 0.800

(18)

AS A NEW ECONOMIC GROWTH POINT, RE CAN

SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE DEVELOPMENT QUALITY

OF OVERALL ECONOMY

Contribution of RE and

related industries to GDP

2.5% 1.6% 2.9% 0.9% 6.2% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0%

2010 2020 2030 2050

Growth of Employment in RE and related industries (unit: 10000)

Wind Solar EV Other RE

125 65 46 15 13 481 377 81 36 250 0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Solar Wind Hydro Biomass Others

2015 2050 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

Energy Sector Employment in 2010

(unit: 1000)

(19)

HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION

WILL HELP BRING BACK CLEAR WATER AND

BLUE SKIES

2050 China's SO2and NOXEmission in High Penetration Scenario

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

China USA EU China Share of Global

Units: billion tons

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0

1990 2000 2005 2009 2010 2011 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

China SO2 Emission High Penetration Scenario China Nox Emission High Penetration Scenario

Units: million tons

2050 China's CO2Emission in the Global Contrast in High Penetration Scenario

Note: China's data after 2010 is scenario data And data of other countries is trend prediction Data from IEA ETP 2014

(20)

2050 HIGH PENETRATION SCENARIO:

PATHWAY

Largest Challenge:

Variability of

(21)

Achieve Higher-level Dynamic Stability

Through Changes: Internet +

Intelligence

Comm

Internet

Energy

Internet

Internet of

Things

Flexibility

Supply Side

Changes

Demand

Side

Also

Changes

Stability?

Reliability

(22)

System with High RE Penetration Will Be a

Reliable Power System

Variable demand

Variable generation

Smart Control and

real-time price

Demand side flexibility

(23)

Contribution of EV’s Flexibility to the Power System

Vehicle

Technology

Charging Mode

Operation Features

EV Charging and Discharging Load

EV

Plug-in

Fuel Battery

Low Voltage AC

DC

Changeable Battery

Frequency of Charging

Miles

Time

Wireless Charging

Types and Numbers

Passenger V

Bus/Business/Delivery

Trucks

Daily miles

Integration

Charging Load Curves Charging control and

(24)

New Business model of EV Will Change the

Concept of Power Dispatch

退役电池

回收

EV Integration Operator

Mobile Stations Fixed

Stations

流动站点 Wireless

Charging

EV Business Model and Integrated Operation of Power System

Wireless

(25)

Energy Storage of EV

(26)

880GW Flexible Coal Will Provide Support

for Stable and Reliable Operation of the

(27)

Hourly Dispatch on a Typical Day in High Penetration

Scenario

0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000

T001 T002 T003 T004 T005 T006 T007 T008 T009 T010 T011 T012 T013 T014 T015 T016 T017 T018 T019 T020 T021 T022 T023 T024

NUCLEAR COAL Hydro NAT_GAS WIND

WOOD SOLAR GEOTHERMAL BIOGAS STRAW

(28)

ACTION PLAN FOR HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY

PENETRATION

(29)

BUILDING HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY

PENETRATION FUTURE WILL BRING

NON-ZERO-SUM”RESULTS

Market Oriented

Economically Viable

Consider both long term and near term

Soft and Hard Supports

(30)

KEY ELEMENTS of THE ACTION PLANS

2020

2015

2030

2040

2050

Technology Revolution

Extract potential of grid, strengthen infrastructure of provincial distribution network, especially 500KV interconnection lines for large wind and solar bases

EV Industrialized,EV become pillar of vehicle industry or even of the national economy by 2025

Enter the era of Energy Internet by 2025: efficiently integrate EV, smart network, and Demand Response; annual installation of wind and solar power each hit 100GW

,Power Sector Reform ongoing in parallel with 13th FYP implementation;

Building a competitive power market in China within 10 years

Reform of State Owned Enterprises: Improve Market Mechanism and break monopoly

Energy transformation of Germany(Learn and Cooperate)、Denmark concepts to phase out fossil energy

Global energy governance is a trend,and conformed with Pareto Standard. Only cooperation will lead to win-win!

Technology Innovation: Significantly increase

electrification rate in end-use consumptions, flexible coal(target: 1000 hours), modernized manufacture and 3-Networks Integration

Institutional Reform

International Cooperation

(31)

Do not ever think about that we can escape, our every

each step determine the final outcome, our foot steps

are moving towards the end of own chosen target.

References

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