NATIONAL
INDEX
the next step
HR OPPORTUNITY INDEX
Welcome to the Covid-19 Special Edition of The Next Step HR Job Opportunity Index
Welcome back to The Next Step, HR Opportunities Index. In the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic we suspended publication of the Index as data was very volatile. Six months into the current environment, we are now able to observe and report clearer trends.
Because of the unprecedented collapse in the Australian employment market, largely masked by JobKeeper, we have reverted to reporting short term historical trends rather than predictive analysis for the Human Resources sector. We are now using Seasonally Adjusted data rather than Trend data which “softens” the extent of the collapse and recovery.
Chart 1 National Time Series Analysis
• The Next Step Human Resources Opportunity Index initially fell from a pre pandemic level of 123.42 (February) to an all-time low of 45.51 in April (a 57.6% decline in two months). It then started its recovery
rising back up to 69.94 in September, a 46.1% increase in five months. It should be noted here that a 50% decline in any index requires a 100% rise to get back to its original position. The National HR Opportunity
Index is a net 38.1% lower at the end of the September quarter than it was in February.
• Unsurprisingly both Permanent and Contract demand followed a similar trend. What is unusual is that Contract work has fared slightly worse. It fell a net 43.3% since February while Permanent job opportunities have fallen “just” 33.1%. This is contrary to the general Australian employment trends where “contingent” work, which includes casual work, has generally been stronger than the permanent market. The relative absence of casual HR work largely explains this dichotomy.
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NATIONAL
INDEX
Chart 2 Change in HR Opportunities by Job Type by Quarter
• The larger fall, 36.8% nationally, was characterised by a massive fall in April followed by a slow start to the recovery in May and June. Contract took the brunt of the net loss falling a massive 48.3%, but it has bounced back stronger, rising 17.4% in the September quarter.
• Permanent job opportunities were particularly hard hit it the March quarter, falling 24.3%, as employers froze when faced by unforeseen circumstances in unchartered waters. Likewise, Q2 saw a 29.3% decline over three months. The recovery in permanent work in Q3 was 13.5%. We anticipate that contract job opportunities will recover quicker in contract than permanent work.
> The greatest concern here is Victoria. Owing to the devastating impact on business of the second wave it was the only region to report further contraction in the September quarter, and that a sizeable 17.1%, while all other states and territories recovered in the quarter.
The quarter by quarter changes clearly illustrates how demand has changed over the year. The fall in job opportunities in Q1 was 19.2% nationally. Cast your mind back then and note that the initial lockdown commenced in mid March so this massive fall took place over a two week period.
40.0%
STATE
ANALYSIS
> The greatest concern here is Victoria. Owing to the devastating impact on business of the second wave it was the only region to report further contraction in the September quarter, and that a sizeable 17.1%, while all other states and territories recovered in the quarter.
Chart 3 Change in HR Opportunities by State by Quarter
The trend in NSW was unusual. It seems to have responded slowest, recording just a 9.6% fall in the
March quarter but then collapsing, falling 53.9%, in Q2. Overall its decline in the first two quarters were comparable to Victoria but the difference lies in its 13.9% rise in the last quarter. This provides some hope
for HR job seekers in NSW while those in Victoria face more challenging conditions.
Western Australia is the best performing of the larger states. Not only did it record the lowest aggregate decline in
the first two quarters of the year but it enjoyed the strongest recovery in Q3. The 34.0% rise can be attributed to
both a relatively low Covid spread and resilience in the mining and resources sector. With limited movement possible interstate job seekers in WA will be the envy of HR professionals nationally.
HOURS
ANALYSIS
The differentiation in JobKeeper between Full Time and Part Time and the publication offortnightly Pay and Hours Worked by the ABS has brought Hours Worked back into focus. More broadly Full-Time job vacancies have recovered better across the Australian economy because companies have casuals and part time workers available for additional shifts when required so don’t need to hire externally.
INDUSTRY
ANALYSIS
The surprise performer over the year has been Retail and Wholesale. Not only did it record relatively low falls in
demand in the first half of the year but the 54.0% surge in demand last quarter defies expectations. It is a sector where there are marked differences between subsectors. While there will have been job losses and little job
creation in department stores, clothing and footwear, business is thriving in supermarkets, home maintenance and white goods. This is where new HR opportunities have arisen.
• The sector to have fallen most dramatically is Professional Services. Job advertisements fell by 34.1% in Q1 and
by 54.0% in Q2, They rose by just 12.4% in Q3. Jobs in this sector are primarily in the consulting firms, illustrative
of the wider impact of the pandemic on white collar professions.
• Another area with disappointing recovery is Health Care, an area with more broad resilience in other
occupa-tions such as nursing. It could only muster a 0.6% decline in the latest quarter but as demand only fell 11.7% in
Q2 it has been one of the steadier sectors.
• The Public Sector is the largest employer of HR professionals so further inspection is important for many seek-ing work. The good news is that it has been one of the strongest performseek-ing sectors recordseek-ing just a 7.7% decline in Q1, 29.5% contraction in Q2 and an encouraging 24.1% bounce back in Q3. Further recovery may be restricted by the Federal Budget which gave little in the way of a boost to public sector employment.
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Professional, Scientific & Technical
(Incl IT)
Public Administration &
Safety
Health Care & Social
Assistance Education & TrainingFinancial & InsuranceServices Manufacturing &Distribution Retail & Wholesale Mining, Construction& Utilities Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020
OCCUPATIONAL
ANALYSIS
The clear winner is HSE. With the attention now being given to employee health and welfare this will come as
little surprise to many. Decline was muted in the first six months of the year but demand more than doubled in
the last quarter. It is a relatively small generator of jobs, matched by a relatively small talent pool. Existing HSE professionals will be enjoying an abundance of opportunity while Generalists would do well to focus on skills and experience in HSE when looking for new work.
• Talent Acquisition is the worst affected occupational group over the nine months. With job advertisements
nationally down by at least a quarter, unemployment and underemployment at high levels and many jobs only still there because of JobKeeper one would expect TA specialists to struggle. Indeed, earlier in the pandemic TA teams were reallocated to other areas of HR to assist with some of the operational reconstruction and in employment assessment and contract renegotiation. Short term prospects will be limited but history suggests
significant retrenchment is inevitably followed by rebuilding and recruiting is usually first cab off the rank. It is
just a question of when.
• As the highest paid in their cohort executive level appointments are at a higher level of risk of retrenchment and diminished level of fresh opportunity. Fortunately, this has not been the case thus far for HR Management. Demand did fall in both Q1 and Q2 but it mounted an encouraging 22.4% recovery in the last quarter.
Chart 6 Change in HR Opportunities by Occupation by Quarter
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HR Management HR Generalist / Consultant Talent Acquisition Remuneration and Benefits Training and Development Health Safety and Environment Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020
