Jefferson (County of) TN

(1)

CREDIT OPINION

4 May 2021 Contacts Christopher Coviello +1.212.553.0575 VP-Senior Analyst christopher.coviello@moodys.com Nicholas Lehman +1.617.535.7694 VP-Senior Analyst nicholas.lehman@moodys.com CLIENT SERVICES Americas 1-212-553-1653 Asia Pacific 852-3551-3077 Japan 81-3-5408-4100 EMEA 44-20-7772-5454

Jefferson (County of) TN

Update to credit analysis

Summary

Jefferson County, TN (Aa3 GOULT) is located in eastern Tennessee. Its local economy and tax base has experienced annual growth as a result of ongoing commercial and residential development. The county's financial position remains healthy and stable as management actively controls operations. The long-term debt profile of the county is average however further debt issuances are expected to fund new school facilities.

We regard the coronavirus outbreak as a social risk under our ESG framework, given the substantial implications for public health and safety. Jefferson County is not susceptible to immediate material credit risks related to coronavirus. Revenue collections for the county remained strong in fiscal 2020 and are continuing a similar trend in fiscal 2021. The situation surrounding coronavirus continues to evolve, if our view of the credit quality of the county changes, we will update the rating and/or outlook at that time.

Credit strengths

» Stable financial position

» Moderately-sized and diversified tax base

Credit challenges

» Slightly below average socioeconomic indicators » Future debt related to schools

Rating outlook

Moody’s does not typically assign outlooks to local government issuers with this amount of debt outstanding.

Factors that could lead to an upgrade

» Material growth in the tax base along with strengthening of wealth indicators » Sizeable increases in reserves

Factors that could lead to a downgrade

» Significant contraction in the tax base

(2)

» Dramatic increase in debt levels that creates financial pressure

Key indicators

Exhibit 1

Jefferson (County of) TN

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Economy/Tax Base

Total Full Value ($000) $4,156,915 $4,376,190 $4,468,176 $4,806,443 $4,831,498

Population 52,851 52,887 53,247 53,679 53,679

Full Value Per Capita $78,653 $82,746 $83,914 $89,540 $90,007

Median Family Income (% of US Median) 77.8% 77.0% 76.4% 77.1% 77.1%

Finances

Operating Revenue ($000) $82,980 $84,073 $86,284 $89,653 $92,752

Fund Balance ($000) $19,312 $19,855 $20,004 $21,465 $27,303

Cash Balance ($000) $20,658 $22,158 $22,627 $26,489 $32,878

Fund Balance as a % of Revenues 23.3% 23.6% 23.2% 23.9% 29.4%

Cash Balance as a % of Revenues 24.9% 26.4% 26.2% 29.5% 35.4%

Debt/Pensions

Net Direct Debt ($000) $80,713 $76,210 $70,727 $66,299 $60,495

3-Year Average of Moody's ANPL ($000) $73,646 $74,539 $58,565 $61,930 $57,794

Net Direct Debt / Full Value (%) 1.9% 1.7% 1.6% 1.4% 1.3%

Net Direct Debt / Operating Revenues (x) 1.0x 0.9x 0.8x 0.7x 0.7x

Moody's - ANPL (3-yr average) to Full Value (%) 1.8% 1.7% 1.3% 1.3% 1.2%

Moody's - ANPL (3-yr average) to Revenues (x) 0.9x 0.9x 0.7x 0.7x 0.6x

Sources: US Census Bureau, Jefferson (County of) TN’s financial statements and Moody’s Investors Service

Profile

Jefferson County, TN is located just east of Knox County (Aa1 stable) in eastern Tennessee (Aaa stable). The county's population was 53,679 as of the 2019 American Community Survey.

Detailed credit considerations

Economy and tax base: Moderately sized and growing tax base in eastern Tennessee

The county's local economy will continue to show annual growth with ongoing commercial and residential development. The county has a $4.8 billion tax base that has generated a five year average annual growth rate of 3.2%. The county has seen continued growth in its tax base with expansions of its commercial and industrial bases. Overall, the county has not experienced any significant slow down in development during the pandemic as construction has been ongoing. In addition to commercial development, the county reports several hundred new residential units in the planning or construction phases.

Resident wealth levels are moderately below average with median family income equal to 90% and 77.1% of state and national levels, respectively. The county's poverty level is below the state (15.2%) and on par with national (13.4%) levels at 13.2%. County-wide unemployment was at 5.1% as of February 2021, slightly above both the state level (4.9%) but below the nation (6.6%).

Financial operations and reserves: Stable financial operations

The county's financial position will remain stable over the near term given conservative budgeting practices, prudent fiscal

management and formalized General Fund reserve policies. Available General Fund balance at the end of fiscal 2020 was $8.6 million or a solid 34.7% of General Fund revenues. The county's operating funds (General Fund, General Purpose School Fund, Highway/ Public Works Fund and Debt Service Fund) also finished the year strong with $27.3 million or 29.4% of annual revenues. In addition to

(3)

its standard operating funds, the county maintains an additional $7.7 million in its Other Special Revenue Fund that can be used for additional liquidity if needed.

Fiscal 2021 operations are tracking close to budget according to the county's management team. The county's single largest revenue stream is property taxes, which have remained strong during the current fiscal year, despite the ongoing pandemic. While local option sales taxes primarily benefit schools and local cities, revenues have continued to performed well during the last several months of the pandemic. In addition, the county is seeing strength in it's local tourism section, with hotel/motel taxes increasing throughout the first half of the fiscal year.

The fiscal 2022 county budget was approved recently and the school budget will be reviewed in the first couple of weeks of May.

Liquidity

The county finished fiscal 2020 with General Fund net cash of $10.4 million (42.2% of annual revenues) and operating fund net cash of $33.9 million (35.4% of annual revenues). These levels of cash will continue to be sufficient to support county operations over the near term.

Debt and pensions: Manageable long-term liabilities

The county's debt levels will remain manageable in the near term due to ongoing tax base growth. Including the current refunding issues, the county's net direct debt burden is approximately 1.4% of full value. Within the next year, the county expects to issue up to $20 million to construct one new elementary school. The county has committed $17 million of cash to renovate a second elementary school. The county may have further capital needs as it relates to upgrades for county administrative buildings. The county has also issued debt in the past related to its nursing home. While the county has never had to financially assist its nursing home (either general operations or debt service), any negative pressure on the nursing home could impact the county's credit quality.

Legal security

The Series 2021A&B bonds are payable from unlimited ad valorem taxes levied on all taxable property within the county. For the prompt payment of principal of and interest on the bonds, the full faith and credit of the county is irrevocably pledged.

Debt structure

The majority of the county's outstanding debt is fixed rate with approximately 8% in variable rate mode. The county's only variable rate Series E-3-D is privately placed with PNC Bank.

Debt-related derivatives

The county is not party to any interest rate swaps or derivative agreements

Pensions and OPEB

Pension costs are not a source of pressure for the county, and will remain manageable. The county participates in the Political Subdivision Pension Plan (PSPP) and the State Employees, Teachers, and Higher Education Employees' Pension Plan (SETHEEPP). Both of these plans are agent multiple-employer defined benefit plans administered by the Tennessee Consolidated Retirement System (TCRS). The county's combined adjusted net pension liability, under Moody's methodology for adjusting reported pension data, is $138.2 million, or an average 1.49 times operating fund revenues. Moody's uses the adjusted net pension liability to improve comparability of reported pension liabilities. The adjustments are not intended to replace the county's reported liability information, but to improve comparability with other rated entities. We determined the county's share of liability for the state-run plans in

proportion to its contributions to the plans. Total fixed costs, when considering debt service, pension, and OPEB, amounted to 14.3% of operating revenues.

ESG considerations

Environmental

Environmental risks do not pose a credit risk over the next two years for the county. Moody's utilizes environmental exposure data from its affiliate Four Twenty Seven to assess environmental risk for specific issuers. Of the physical climate risks assessed by Four Twenty Seven, Jefferson County's highest exposure is to heat stress.

(4)

Social

Social considerations are not material to the credit profile except as described above in the economy section relating to median family income.

Governance

Jefferson County maintains formal fund balance policies for its General and Debt Service funds. In the General Fund, the county is required to maintain 15% of subsequent year's appropriation in unassigned fund balance. The Debt Service Fund is required to maintain 50% of the subsequent year's debt service requirement.

Tennessee Counties have an institutional framework score 1_{of "Aaa", which is very strong. The sector has one or more major revenue}

sources that are not subject to any caps. Unpredictable revenue fluctuations tend to be moderate, or between 5-10% annually. Across the sector, fixed and mandated costs are generally less than 25% of expenditures. Unpredictable expenditure fluctuations tend to be minor, under 5% annually.

(5)

Rating methodology and scorecard factors

The US Local Government General Obligation Debt methodology includes a scorecard, a tool providing a composite score of a local government’s credit profile based on the weighted factors we consider most important, universal and measurable, as well as possible notching factors dependent on individual credit strengths and weaknesses. Its purpose is not to determine the final rating, but rather to provide a standard platform from which to analyze and compare local government credits.

Exhibit 2

Jefferson (County of) TN

Rating Factors Measure Score

Economy/Tax Base (30%)[1]

Tax Base Size: Full Value (in 000s) $4,831,498 Aa

Full Value Per Capita $90,007 Aa

Median Family Income (% of US Median) 77.1% A

Finances (30%)

Fund Balance as a % of Revenues 29.4% Aa

5-Year Dollar Change in Fund Balance as % of Revenues 11.8% Aa

Cash Balance as a % of Revenues 35.4% Aaa

5-Year Dollar Change in Cash Balance as % of Revenues 16.6% Aa

Management (20%)

Institutional Framework Aaa Aaa

Operating History: 5-Year Average of Operating Revenues / Operating Expenditures 1.0x Aa Debt and Pensions (20%)

Net Direct Debt / Full Value (%) 1.4% Aa

Net Direct Debt / Operating Revenues (x) 0.7x A

3-Year Average of Moody's Adjusted Net Pension Liability / Full Value (%) 1.2% Aa

3-Year Average of Moody's Adjusted Net Pension Liability / Operating Revenues (x) 0.6x Aa Notching Factors:[2]

Standardized Adjustments[3]: Unusually Strong or Weak Security Features Up

Other Analyst Adjustment to Debt and Pensions Factor (specify): new debt for schools Down Scorecard-Indicated Outcome Aa2

Assigned Rating Aa3 [1] Economy measures are based on data from the most recent year available.

[2] Notching Factors are specifically defined in the US Local Government General Obligation Debt methodology. [3] Standardized adjustments are outlined in the GO Methodology Scorecard Inputs publication.

Sources: US Census Bureau, Jefferson County, TN's financial statements and Moody’s Investors Service

Endnotes

1 The institutional framework score assesses a municipality’s legal ability to match revenues with expenditures based on its constitutionally and legislatively conferred powers and responsibilities. See US Local Government General Obligation Debt (July 2020) methodology report for more details.

(6)

CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODY'S CREDIT RATINGS AFFILIATES ARE THEIR CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES, AND MATERIALS, PRODUCTS, SERVICES AND INFORMATION PUBLISHED BY MOODY’S (COLLECTIVELY, “PUBLICATIONS”) MAY INCLUDE SUCH CURRENT OPINIONS. MOODY’S DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT OR IMPAIRMENT. SEE APPLICABLE MOODY’S RATING SYMBOLS AND DEFINITIONS PUBLICATION FOR INFORMATION ON THE TYPES OF CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS ADDRESSED BY MOODY’S CREDIT RATINGS. CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO: LIQUIDITY RISK, MARKET VALUE RISK, OR PRICE VOLATILITY. CREDIT RATINGS, NON-CREDIT ASSESSMENTS (“ASSESSMENTS”), AND OTHER OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT. MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS MAY ALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS OR COMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODY’S ANALYTICS, INC. AND/OR ITS AFFILIATES. MOODY’S CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS AND PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND MOODY’S CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS AND PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE, SELL, OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES. MOODY’S CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS AND PUBLICATIONS DO NOT COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR. MOODY’S ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS AND OTHER OPINIONS AND PUBLISHES ITS PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL, WITH DUE CARE, MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE, HOLDING, OR SALE.

MOODY’S CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS, AND PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY RETAIL INVESTORS AND IT WOULD BE RECKLESS AND INAPPROPRIATE FOR RETAIL INVESTORS TO USE MOODY’S CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS OR PUBLICATIONS WHEN MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION. IF IN DOUBT YOU SHOULD CONTACT YOUR FINANCIAL OR OTHER PROFESSIONAL ADVISER.

ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BY LAW, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, COPYRIGHT LAW, AND NONE OF SUCH INFORMATION MAY BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODY’S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT.

MOODY’S CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS AND PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY ANY PERSON AS A BENCHMARK AS THAT TERM IS DEFINED FOR REGULATORY PURPOSES AND MUST NOT BE USED IN ANY WAY THAT COULD RESULT IN THEM BEING CONSIDERED A BENCHMARK.

All information contained herein is obtained by MOODY’S from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors, however, all information contained herein is provided “AS IS” without warranty of any kind. MOODY'S adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODY'S considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, MOODY’S is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process or in preparing its Publications.

To the extent permitted by law, MOODY’S and its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors and suppliers disclaim liability to any person or entity for any indirect, special, consequential, or incidental losses or damages whatsoever arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information, even if MOODY’S or any of its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors or suppliers is advised in advance of the possibility of such losses or damages, including but not limited to: (a) any loss of present or prospective profits or (b) any loss or damage arising where the relevant financial instrument is not the subject of a particular credit rating assigned by MOODY’S.

To the extent permitted by law, MOODY’S and its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors and suppliers disclaim liability for any direct or compensatory losses or damages caused to any person or entity, including but not limited to by any negligence (but excluding fraud, willful misconduct or any other type of liability that, for the avoidance of doubt, by law cannot be excluded) on the part of, or any contingency within or beyond the control of, MOODY’S or any of its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors or suppliers, arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information.

NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS, COMPLETENESS, MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY CREDIT RATING, ASSESSMENT, OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODY’S IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER.

Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody’s Corporation (“MCO”), hereby discloses that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moody’s Investors Service, Inc. have, prior to assignment of any credit rating, agreed to pay to Moody’s Investors Service, Inc. for credit ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from $1,000 to approximately $5,000,000. MCO and Moody’s Investors Service also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of Moody’s Investors Service credit ratings and credit rating processes. Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities, and between entities who hold credit ratings from Moody’s Investors Service and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%, is posted annually at www.moodys.com under the heading “Investor Relations — Corporate Governance — Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policy.”

Additional terms for Australia only: Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of MOODY’S affiliate, Moody’s Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 and/or Moody’s Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136 972 AFSL 383569 (as applicable). This document is intended to be provided only to “wholesale clients” within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. By continuing to access this document from within Australia, you represent to MOODY’S that you are, or are accessing the document as a representative of, a “wholesale client” and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to “retail clients” within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. MOODY’S credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer, not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors.

Additional terms for Japan only: Moody's Japan K.K. (“MJKK”) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody's Group Japan G.K., which is wholly-owned by Moody’s Overseas Holdings Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO. Moody’s SF Japan K.K. (“MSFJ”) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of MJKK. MSFJ is not a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (“NRSRO”). Therefore, credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings. Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings are assigned by an entity that is not a NRSRO and, consequently, the rated obligation will not qualify for certain types of treatment under U.S. laws. MJKK and MSFJ are credit rating agencies registered with the Japan Financial Services Agency and their registration numbers are FSA Commissioner (Ratings) No. 2 and 3 respectively.

MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have, prior to assignment of any credit rating, agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for credit ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from JPY125,000 to approximately JPY550,000,000.

MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements.

(7)

Americas 1-212-553-1653

Asia Pacific 852-3551-3077

Japan 81-3-5408-4100