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On the uncertainty of phenological responses to climate change, and implications for a terrestrial biosphere model

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Figure

Fig. 1. Schematic representation of the model-data fusion approach for model optimization, the forecat mechanism and the characterizationof the three sources of uncertainty
Table 1. List of the 11 species used in the analysis, species identifier (Species ID), species Latin and common name, average bud-burst date(BB), best model according to data (Best Model), coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE, day)
Fig. 2. Model representation of the seasonal cycle of terrestrialcumulated forcing reaches a critical state
Table 3. �data. Species ID are as given in Table 1. The best model, based on Akaike’s Information Criterion corrected for small samples (AICc) has�AICc values for a range of different models (see text and Tables 1, 2 for additional information) fit to Harvard Forest bud-burstAICc = 0 and is indicated by bold type.
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