London Prime Residential Property Market Report
Autumn 2016
London Prime Residential Property Market Report Autumn 2016
Supply and demand
The third quarter of this year provided a welcome dose of relative positivity compared to the considerable negativity following the EU referendum: buyers were much more active - the number of new buyers registering with Chestertons rose by 12% over the quarter - while the number of property sales increased by over 15%. Sellers also appeared more motivated, with the number of new instructions increasing by 7.5% compared to the previous quarter and the total number of properties available at the end of the quarter was consequently up by 5.4%.
This uptick in quarterly activity is very
encouraging and indicates how quickly market sentiment can change. The market certainly seemed to have turned a corner and there was a greater willingness among both buyers and sellers to commit to deals as concern about the potential negative impact of Brexit reduced, at least in the shorter term.
The triggering of Article 50 by the end of next March – which will formally start the UK’s exit procedure from the EU - is likely to create further turbulence and slow the market again – but it could also spur the market into a further increase in activity over the next six months if property investors and homeowners take a view that the country’s economic prospects might take a turn for the worse.
The property tax hikes of the past 18 months continue to exert a drag on the market above
£1.5m but sellers have started to realise that this is a situation that is unlikely to change and that sensible pricing is the best way to secure a sale. As a result, there has been a 15% increase in price reductions over the quarter.
Sales market: Key trends
– Sellers and buyers much more active in third quarter – Capital values remained under downwards pressure
– New homes sales still strong, but buyers focussed on sub-£1,000 / sq ft market
-2%0%2%4%6%8%
10%12%
14%16%
18%
Exchanges ThroughsFall
Price Reductions Viewings
Applicants Stock
(end period) Instructions
Appraisals
15.3%
2.9%
7.5%
-0.3% 12.0% 2.2%
15.3%
7.1%
Figure 1: Key market indicators: Q3 2016 v Q2 2016
In the 12 months to the end of September, the pound had fallen by just over 14% against the US dollar and the euro and by 10%
against the Chinese yuan. This has meant that overseas buyers, especially those transacting in US dollars, have been able to use sterling’s
continued weakness to acquire property assets at a significant discount. Anecdotal evidence from Chestertons’ branches suggest that the number of overseas buyers being registered has increased by over 50% in some areas of central London.
New homes market
The new homes market experienced a busier quarter than many had anticipated, with completions reaching a record 6,860 units and exceeding starts for the second successive quarter. A total of 60,800 new properties were under construction at the end of the quarter, which is just 1% more than at the end of 2015 but 151% above the previous market peak in 2007.
4,830 new build properties were sold – 27% down on the quarterly average for 2015 but 9% higher than Q2 2016 and 19% higher than the quarterly average since the start of 2009.
At the end of the quarter, 60% of units under construction had been sold off-plan, which although less than the 67% record achieved in 2014, is much higher than the 48% recorded for the previous market peak in 2007. Around a fifth of sales were to corporate PRS investors, suggesting that some developers have become more prepared to entertain discounted bulk sales, but most of the well capitalised developers sought to hold their value position and did not want to be seen to be discounting prices.
Nonetheless, as in the resale market, pricing remains key to achieving sales. This is demonstrated by the fact that over half (55%) of the completed new properties that were sold by the end of the quarter were marketed in the £600-£999 per sq ft bracket while only 30% were priced at £1,000 and above.
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000
2009 q1 Starts2009 q2 2009 q3 2009 q4 2010 q1 Completions2010 q2 2010 q3 2010 q4 2011 q1 2011 q2 2011 q3 Sales2011 q4 2012 q1 2012 q2 2012 q3 2012 q4 2013 q1 2013 q2 2013 q3 2013 q4 2014 q1 2014 q2 2014 q3 2014 q4 2015 q1 2015 q2 2015 q3 2015 q4 2016 q1 2016 q2 2016 q3
Source: Molior
Figure 2: London new homes’ starts, completions & sales: Q1 2009-Q3 2016
Property values
Property values in the ‘prime’ areas of London remained under downwards pressure with the most central locations and were the most expensive properties experiencing the most significant price falls – mainly as a direct result of the stamp duty hikes introduced since December 2014.
Price reductions consequently remained a feature of the market and increased by 15%
compared to the previous quarter and were 78% up on the corresponding quarter in 2015.
The Chestertons Prime London Residential Capital Values Index fell by 1.8% over the quarter and by 3.0% over the year to end- September 2016. The decline was more pronounced in prime central London, with quarterly values reducing by 7% in Mayfair and by 5.3% in St. John’s Wood. Interestingly, analysis of property sales by price reveals that sales of £1.5m+ properties now accounts for just 16.3% of sales, compared to 21.3% in Q2.
In stark contrast, the wider London and national markets both experienced continued robust price growth of 12.1% and 8.4% respectively in the year to August. This reflects a combination of constrained supply and strong buyer demand supported by low mortgage interest rates.
The impact of the stamp duty hikes has also been minimal given the lower average property values, while Brexit has been less of a negative issue outside London.
19.3%
28.2%
17.3%
18.8%
9.9%
6.4%
£2m and above
£1.5m – £1.999m
£1m – £1.499m
£750,000 – £999,999
£500,000 – £749,999 Less than £500,000
Source: Chestertons Research
Figure 3: Exchanges by price band: Q3 2016
Outlook
There are encouraging signs that the prime sales market in London is recovering some of its lost momentum in terms of activity, although this is not apparent in all locations and may not be sustained in the traditionally quieter final quarter of the year.
For the time being, vendors are demonstrating greater willingness to give ground on asking price which is prompting buyers to move off the fence and commit to deals. Sterling’s weakness is additionally making UK property look very attractive for overseas buyers and UBS has even predicted that the pound will trade at parity against both the euro and the dollar by the end of 2017.
There are, however, a number of uncertainties on the horizon that will affect the property market:
– While Brexit may have moved from a “red”
to an “amber” alert for the time being, the triggering of Article 50 next March may create a fresh wave of anxiety. The impact of Brexit on the UK economy, including the housing market, has so far proved less severe than anticipated by some commentators but no-one knows how things will pan out during the negotiations and after exiting.
– London’s Mayor, Sadiq Khan, recently announced that he intends to conduct
“the most thorough research ever undertaken”
on the foreign ownership of property in the capital and the resulting actions from this will be a concern to many of the capital’s overseas owners.
– The Autumn Statement on 23rd November will give us a better idea of Chancellor Philip Hammond’s attitude to the property market and indicate where he might be looking to intervene. However, it is unlikely that he will give ground on high-end stamp duty rates or the planned phased reduction of mortgage relief for buy-to-let (BTL) landlords from next April.
The shock election result in the US could turn out to be positive for the UK. Mr. Trump has already stated that the UK will be ahead of the EU in the trade deals queue. Moreover, his pre-election anti-Muslim rhetoric may also turn Middle Eastern investors away from the US towards the UK. However, we will have to wait until he is in post to see whether his words are reflected in his actions.
In conclusion, we maintain our view that prime values will remain under downwards pressure for at least the remainder of this year.
What happens after March will largely depend on the ongoing Brexit negotiations and the tone of the accompanying media coverage.
A positive start to the negotiations would encourage price growth to resume but any significant loss of jobs in the financial services sector could cause prices to fall.
Assuming no major systemic shock, we anticipate that prime values in 2017 will see further correction in Zone 1 locations but should stabilise in Zone 2, with modest growth likely in eastern Zone 2 locations and other decentralised prime areas.
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2016–20 growth
(compounded)
London 10.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 5.0% 37.6%
Prime London -7.5% 0.0% 3.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Figure 4: London residential price growth forecasts
-0.9%946 Tower Bridge Hampstead 778
-2.0%
Kentish Town 0.0%861
1,187 -5.3%
Covent Garden Mayfair
Knightsbridge
& Belgravia Camden
Kensington
Little Venice
Fulham
Putney
Chelsea &
South Kensington Chiswick
-4.2%756
-2.0%729
Wandsworth 0.7%711
-3.9%737 East Sheen -3.9%800 Richmond
-1.5%796
1,371 0.0%
-1.8%876
To Canary Wharf
0.0%895 Kew
Battersea 1004 Park
-1.7%
-1.8%989 Barnes
1,537 0.5%
St John’s Wood
Battersea Rise 0.0%935
Islington -4.6%983
Westminster
& Pimlico HydePark 1,312
-1.2% 2,361 -7.0%
2,453 -0.6%
1,522
-3.6% 1,331
-0.6%
Notting Hill 1,167 -1.2%
1,631 -0.5%
Canary Wharf
& Docklands 710 0.6%
Greenwich &
Blackheath 631 -1.8%
Figure 5: Chestertons’ Prime residential capital values & 3-month growth as at end-Sep 2016
Source: Chestertons Research The Chestertons Prime London Residential Sales & Lettings Indices track
quarterly changes in rental values in 27 locations across London. They are fixed-base indices using the quarterly repeat valuation of a standard basket of properties (selected so as to be representative of a typical cross-section of prime stock within each location) in order to remove inconsistencies that can arise from using a transaction-based approach where the number and type of properties may vary significantly between reporting periods. We have not applied any adjustment for seasonality or property mix. The geographical coverage of our indices is as follows:
Barnes, Battersea Park, Battersea & Clapham, Camden, Canary Wharf, Chelsea & South Kensington, Chiswick, Covent Garden, East Sheen, Fulham, Greenwich & Blackheath, Hampstead, Hyde Park, Islington, Kensington, Kentish Town, Kew, Knightsbridge & Belgravia, Little Venice, Mayfair, Notting Hill, Putney, Richmond, St John’s Wood, Wandsworth, Westminster & Pimlico and Tower Bridge.
Supply and demand
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Stock (end period) Agreed
Lettings Properties
Viewed ApplicantsNew
Instructions Valuations
20.9%
20.0% 45.6% -11.2%29.6% 15.5%
Figure 6: Key market indicators: Q3 2016 v Q2 2016
Lettings market: Key trends
– Increased lettings activity in third quarter
– Prime rental values remained under downwards pressure
– No apparent reduction in investor appetite despite increasing tax and regulatory burden
London’s lettings market maintained its upward momentum in the traditionally busy third quarter: the number of new applicants registering was up by an impressive 46% and new lettings (not including tenancy renewals) rose by 15.5% compared to the previous quarter.
This increase in tenant activity resulted in a drop in available properties to rent, which fell by 11%, despite a 21% increase in properties coming onto the market from landlords.
Despite the reduction in available properties, there was still plenty of choice for tenants and there was a significant increase (57%) in early terminations on existing contracts as many of them sought better deals elsewhere. Tenants and relocation agents acting on behalf of large businesses continued to look away from the more central locations in search of better value for money.
Tenant demand was split between corporate executives with or without families, overseas higher education students and lifestyle renters, the latter category including frustrated sellers who have let their owned property and have moved into rented accommodation while they await a better time to sell.
Financial services workers remain an important component of prime rental demand but there is also growing demand from the tech sectors as London cements its position as Europe’s tech centre. This sector appears to be less concerned about Brexit than financial services, as evidenced by Apple’s decision to relocate over 1,000 staff from their various London offices into a new 500,000 sq ft building in Nine Elms by 2021.
12-month leases with a break at six months remain the norm but since the EU referendum, there has been an increase in the number of requests for “business break clauses” to be included in tenancy agreements, particularly for employees within the financial services sector. These allow tenants to break at any point during the lease (with a standard notice period still required) if they are relocated by their company by more than a certain distance from the property – which in London is typically 25 miles. This is a clear indication of nervousness within the sector with regard to Brexit and is also reflected when renewing contracts with greater flexibility often being requested by tenants.
Rents and yields
0% 0.5% 1% 1.5% 2% 2.5% 3% 3.5% 4% 4.5%
Knightsbridge & Belgravia Mayfair Hyde Park Prime central London average Chelsea & S Kensington Kensington Prime London average Notting Hill St John's Wood
2.2%
2.2%
2.5%
2.75%
2.8%
2.9%
3.0%
3.9%
4.0%
Source: Chestertons Research
Figure 7: Prime central London gross residential yields (at end-Sep 2016) Despite the increase in lettings activity, there
was still plenty of choice for tenants with regard to available properties. Consequently, rental values in ‘prime’ areas of London continued to slide in Q3 and the Chestertons Prime London Residential Rental Index recorded a 2.9% fall in rents over the quarter and a 7.1% drop over the 12 months to September.
Rent increases on renewed contracts were similarly lower than in the previous quarter at 1.0%,
and were almost half the average achieved inq3 last year (+1.9%).
Prime gross yields saw further downwards movement but the change was minimal and suggests that yields are now stabilising. The Chestertons’ basket recorded a figure of 3.0%
for prime London and 2.75% for prime central London. At submarket level, yields at quarter end ranged from 4.3% in Canary Wharf down to 2.2% in Knightsbridge/Belgravia.
Rightmove has reported that buyer enquiries on its website from potential landlords and investors rose by 30% between May and September which demonstrates that from an investment perspective, residential property remains an attractive option.
Whilst the increase in stamp duty and the planned reduction in tax relief from next
April on buy-to-let finance costs will impact profitability, there are very few alternative assets which offer comparable long term returns with relatively low volatility, while pensions are looking increasingly fragile. Moreover, investors can take advantage of the current low cost of borrowing to enhance returns by increasing the debt on their property investments.
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
FTSE 100 index
20 year average annual growth
Risk (standard deviation)
Gold price Kens. & Chels. house prices Inner London house price
England house price Outter London house price London
house price
Oil price
Figure 8: Long term risk & return: residential property v selected other assets
Outlook
Being a landlord has become more onerous and costly over the past couple of years as a result of various tax and regulatory impositions and next year will bring further pain: from January, the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) has announced that landlords applying for a buy to let (BTL) mortgage in the UK will need to satisfy more strict criteria from lenders.
The more straightforward changes, including stress tests, must be implemented by 1st January 2017 with the remainder by 30th September 2017. Affordability assessments will include a review of borrower’s costs including tax liabilities, verified personal income and possible future interest rate increases. Lending to portfolio landlords (defined as being those with four or more mortgaged BTL properties) will be assessed using a specialist underwriting process. BTL mortgages with terms of less than five years, or with rates fixed for five years or more, will not be subject to the affordability stress test.
From April, the phased reduction in tax relief for finance costs on rental income will commence which, over a four year period involving a 25%
drop each year, will see the rate of relief for higher rate taxpayers cut to the basic rate. This will include interest on mortgages, other loans (e.g. to furnish properties), overdrafts and fees and any other incidental costs for getting or repaying mortgages and loans.
Brexit remains an unknown quantity although at least we know that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March. Whether the UK achieves a “hard” or a “soft” Brexit is impossible to predict but either way, we are bound to be bombarded by a variety of opinions during
the process which will have their own impact on consumer and corporate sentiment.
As for the “Trump effect”, this will only become clear once he is in post but as noted earlier, could have a positive outcome for the UK.
For the time being, we have an economy which is performing better than many predicted;
record employment levels; a currency which has depreciated which is helping exports; and a stock market which recently – albeit briefly – hit its highest ever level. We should also remember that Euroland is not without its problems – stagnating economies, zero interest rates, a banking sector approaching crisis and elections in France, Germany and Holland next year where anti-immigration populist movements are gaining traction. Could it be that the perfect storm will occur on the other side of the Channel and leave the UK as the rock to which investors will cling?
We forecast that prime rental values will decline further over the final quarter of this year with stabilisation occurring in 2017. Localised supply shortages, which could become more widespread if landlords decide to quit the sector in sufficient numbers, could result in a return to growth next year. Rising costs for landlords, notably the loss of tax relief on finance costs from next April, will additionally likely mean that rents will be increased in response.
Rental growth in the wider market will remain stronger and driven by a rising population, many of whom will be “forced renters”.
Affordability issues will act as a partial brake on rental growth but any significant sell-off of properties by landlords would restrict supply and cause rents to accelerate.
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2016–20 total
compound growth
London 4.0% 5.0% 5.0% 6.0% 6.0% 28.8%
Prime London -8.5% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
Figure 9: London private residential rental value forecast
-0.8%493 Tower Bridge Hampstead 800
-5.8%
Kentish Town 0.5%716
1,655 -7.5%
Covent Garden Mayfair
Knightsbridge
& Belgravia Camden
Kensington
Little Venice
Fulham
Putney
Chelsea &
South Kensington Chiswick
-4.4%672
-4.5%627
Wandsworth -2.7%443
-1.4%668 East Sheen -1.1%749 Richmond
-1.1%729
1,187 -3.9%
-2.0%837
To Canary Wharf
-8.2%779 Kew 924
-0.7% Barnes
-0.7%698 St John’s Wood
-3.6%620
Battersea Rise
Battersea Park -2.3%664
Islington 0.0%804
Westminster
& Pimlico HydePark 776
-3.8% 1,719 -1.2%
1,609 -4.1%
1,071
-10.5% 661
1.4%
Notting Hill 850 -2.4%
1,295 0.8%
Canary Wharf
& Docklands
Greenwich &
Blackheath -0.1%608
-4.3%462 Figure 10: Prime London residential weekly rental values & 3-month growth as at end-Sep 2016
The Chestertons Prime London Residential Sales & Lettings Indices track quarterly changes in rental values in 27 locations across London. They are fixed-base indices and are based on the quarterly repeat valuation of a standard basket of properties (selected so as to be representative of the typical cross-section of prime stock within each location) in order to remove inconsistencies which can arise from using a transaction based approach where the number and type of properties may vary significantly between reporting periods. We have not applied any adjustment for seasonality or property mix. The geographical coverage of our indices is as follows:
Barnes, Battersea Park, Battersea Rise, Camden, Canary Wharf, Chelsea &
South Kensington, Chiswick, Covent Garden, East Sheen, Fulham, Greenwich, Hampstead, Hyde Park, Islington, Kensington, Kentish Town, Kew, Knightsbridge
& Belgravia, Little Venice, Mayfair, Notting Hill, Pimlico, Putney, Richmond, St. John’s Wood, Wandsworth and Tower Bridge.
Source: Chestertons Research
The contents of this report are intended for the purpose of general information and should not be relied upon as the basis for decision taking on the part of the reader. Although every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information contained within this report at the time of writing, no liability is accepted by Chesterton Global for any loss or damage resulting from its use. Reproduction of this report in whole
Local Offices:
Nicholas Barnes Head of Research T: 020 3040 8406
E: nicholas.barnes@chestertons.com
Richard Davies Head of Lettings T: 020 3040 8244
E: richard.davies@chestertons.com
Guy Gittins Head of Sales T: 020 7594 4745
E: guy.gittins@chestertons.com
Contact
Chestertons is the London and international residential property specialist that knows its business and markets like no one else and every year helps thousands of people buy, sell, let, rent and
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BARNES
Sales: 020 8748 8833 Lettings: 020 8748 7733 sales.barnes@chestertons.com lettings.barnes@chestertons.com BATTERSEA & CLAPHAM Sales: 020 7924 4400 Lettings: 020 7298 5630 sales.battersearise@chestertons.com lettings.battersea@chestertons.com BATTERSEA PARK
Sales: 020 3040 8700
sales.batterseapark@chestertons.com Lettings: 020 3040 8700
lettings.batterseapark@chestertons.com CAMDEN
Sales: 020 7267 2053 Lettings: 020 7267 3574 sales.camden@chestertons.com lettings.camden@chestertons.com CANARY WHARF
Sales: 020 7510 8310 Lettings: 020 7510 8310 sales.docklands@chestertons.com lettings.docklands@chestertons.com CHELSEA
Sales: 020 7594 4740 Lettings: 020 7594 4750 sales.chelsea@chestertons.com lettings.chelsea@chestertons.com CHISWICK
Sales: 020 8995 3443 Lettings: 020 8747 3133 sales.chiswick@chestertons.com lettings.chiswick@chestertons.com COVENT GARDEN
Sales: 020 3040 8300 Lettings: 020 3040 8400
sales.coventgarden@chestertons.com lettings.covent garden@chestertons.com EAST SHEEN
Sales: 020 8104 0580 sales.sheen@chestertons.com FULHAM, FULHAM ROAD Sales: 020 7384 9898 Lettings: 020 7384 9899 sales.fulhamroad@chestertons.com lettings.fulhamroad@chestertons.com FULHAM, MUNSTER ROAD Sales: 020 7384 9898
sales.munsterroad@chestertons.com GREENWICH & BLACKHEATH Sales: 020 8104 7500 Lettings: 020 8104 7510 sales.greenwich@chestertons.com lettings.greenwich@chestertons.com
HAMPSTEAD Sales: 020 7794 3311 Lettings: 020 7794 1125 sales.hampstead@chestertons.com lettings.hampstead@chestertons.com HYDE PARK
Sales: 020 7298 5900 Lettings: 020 7298 5950 sales.hydepark@chestertons.com lettings.hydepark@chestertons.com ISLINGTON
Sales: 020 7359 9777 Lettings: 020 7226 4221 sales.ilsington@chestertons.com lettings.islington@chestertons.com KENSINGTON
Sales: 020 7937 7244 Lettings: 020 7937 7260 sales.kensington@chestertons.com lettings.kensington@chestertons.com KENSINGTON CHURCH STREET Sales: 020 7937 7244 Lettings: 020 3040 8446
sales.kensingtonchurchstreet@chestertons.com lettings.kensingtonchurchstreet@chestertons.com KENTISH TOWN
Sales: 020 7267 1010 Lettings: 020 7267 1010 sales.kentishtown@chestertons.com lettings.kentishtown@chestertons.com KEW
Sales: 020 8104 0340 Lettings: 020 8104 0340 sales.kew@chestertons.com lettings.kew@chestertons.com KNIGHTSBRIDGE Sales: 020 7235 8090 Lettings: 020 7235 3530
sales.knightsbridge@chestertons.com lettings.knightsbridge@chestertons.com LITTLE VENICE
Sales: 020 7286 4632 Lettings: 020 7266 2369 sales.littlevenice@chestertons.com lettings.littlevenice@chestertons.com MARYLEBONE
Sales: 020 8104 7550 Lettings: 020 8104 7555 sales.marylebone@chestertons.com lettings.marylebone@chestertons.com MAYFAIR
Sales: 020 7629 4513 Lettings: 020 7288 8301 sales.mayfair@chestertons.com lettings.mayfair@chestertons.com
NOTTING HILL Sales: 020 3040 8585 Lettings: 020 3040 8588 sales.nottinghill@chestertons.com lettings.nottinghill@chestertons.com NORTH BARNES
Sales: 020 8748 8833 Lettings: 020 8748 7733
sales.northbarnes.enquiries@chestertons.com lettings.northbarnes@chestertons.com PARSONS GREEN
Sales: 020 7731 4448 Lettings: 020 7348 7777
sales.newkingsroad@chestertons.com lettings.parsonsgreen@chestertons.com PUTNEY
Sales: 020 8246 5959 Lettings: 020 8704 1000 sales.putney@chestertons.com lettings.putney@chestertons.com RICHMOND
Sales: 020 3758 3222 Lettings: 020 3758 3333 sales.richmond@chestertons.com lettings.richmond @chestertons.com SOUTH KENSINGTON
Sales: 020 7589 1234 Lettings: 020 7589 1244
sales.southkensington@chestertons.com lettings.southkensington@chestertons.com ST JOHN’S WOOD
Sales: 020 3040 8611 Lettings: 020 3040 8622 sales.stjohnswood@chestertons.com lettings.stjohnswood@chestertons.com TOWER BRIDGE
Sales: 020 7357 7999 Lettings: 020 7357 6911 sales.towerbridge@chestertons.com lettings.towerbridge@chestertons.com WANDSWORTH
Sales: 020 8104 7530 Lettings: 020 8104 7540 sales.wandsworth@chestertons.com lettings.wandsworth@chestertons.com WESTMINSTER & PIMLICO Sales: 020 3040 8201 Lettings: 020 3040 8220 sales.pimlico@chestertons.com lettings.pimlico@chestertons.com
Notting Hill
Chiswick
Barnes
Mayfair
Knightsbridge & Belgravia Westminster & Pimlico Chelsea
Kensington South Kensington
Hyde Park
Little Venice
Earls Court
St. John’s Wood
Kentish Town Hampstead
Covent Garden Islington Camden & Primrose Hill
Battersea & Clapham Battersea Park
Putney Wandsworth East Sheen
Kew
Tower Bridge Canary Wharf
Fulham
Greenwich & Blackheath Marylebone
Parsons Green Richmond
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