How Will Technology Shape
Our Future?
Tom Franke
University of New Hampshire
At NERCOMP 2007
Copyright © Thomas L Franke (2006). This work is the
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What this session is not. . .
{
how to/practical
{
a survey of future technologies (ala
What this session is. . .
{
reflection on three expert,
contemporary , but sharply
diverging, views of the future our
technology may bring forth:
z constraint/collapse (Heinberg’s peak oil
scenario)
z globalization (Friedman’s flat world) z technological utopia (Kurzweil’s
Selection of Scenarios
{
Evidence based
{Reason based
{
Some intelligent support
{
Excluded: faith based and total
Goals
{
thoughtful reflection on the part of
the participants
{
attendees will be stimulated to
investigate further
The Books
{ Richard Heinberg, The Party’s Over: Oil,
War and the Fate of Industrial Societies.
{ Richard Heinberg, Power Down: Options
and Actions for a Post-Carbon World.
{ Thomas L. Friedman, The World is Flat: A
Brief History of the Twenty-first Century.
{ Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity Is Near:
Summarize the three views
z What are the main drivers of change? z What are the primary information
sources?
z What are stages of history? z What is the timeline?
z What are implications for our future? z What can we do?
z What could derail the scenario? z What is the role of technology?
Discussion (at end)
{
What are the implications for
education generally?
{
What are the implications for higher
education (and faculty) specifically?
{
What are the implications for
technology leaders (and support)
specifically?
The Party’s Over:
Heinberg’s Peak Oil Scenario-1
{
Main drivers: Energy & complexity
{History defined by technology
stages: Stone age-Industrial age
Industrial societies built on fossil
fuels
{
Heinberg: Petroleum Era =
Petroleum Interval or Industrial
Bubble
The Party’s Over:
Heinberg’s Peak Oil Scenario-2
{
Peak oil is a near-point
phenomenon (2005-2020)
{
Four options:
{ Last One Standing { Powerdown
{ Magic Elixer
The World is Flat:
Friedman’s Flat Earth Scenario- 1
{
Drivers: Economic competition &
technology
{
Globalization
z Globalization 1.0: 1492-1800 (brawn) z Globalization 2.0: 1800-2000
(multinational companies)
z Globalization 3.0 (flat world):
2000-present (individual empowerment to collaborate & compete globally)
The World is Flat:
Friedman’s Flat Earth Scenario-2
{
Rising of individuals and
non-western cultures
{
Empowered by info technology
{Globalization will continue
The World is Flat:
Friedman’s Flat Earth Scenario-3
{ Five Action Areas for compassionate flatism
(“Progressive” agenda)
z Leadership-hope & challenge (emphasize
Basic research & science & engineering)
z Muscles-empower individuals (portable
benefits, lifelong learning)
z Cushions-social security, wage insurance z Social activism-ecology, labor standards z Parenting-push education and
The Singularity is Near:
Kurzweil’s Singularity Scenario-1
{
Main drivers: evolution &
information
{
Fundamental premises:
z Law of accelerating returns
z Evolution moves toward complexity z There’s always an idea that matters.
The Singularity is Near:
Kurzweil’s Singularity Scenario-2
{ 6 information epochs:
1. Physics & chemistry (info in atomic) 2. Biology (info in dna)
3. Brains (info in neural structures)
4. Technology (info in hw & sw design) NOW 5. Merger of tech & human intelligence
2000-2050, including reverse engineering human brain
6. Universe Wakes Up (patterns of matter &
The Singularity is Near:
Kurzweil’s Singularity Scenario-3
{ Epoch 5: GNR revolution
z Genomics-gene therapies at the cellular level z Nanotechnology (molecular nano-technology
MNT)-Nanobots will eliminate scarcity (incl. energy)
z Robotics-Intelligent machines & human-machine hybrids
z Strong AI (Robotics)- “comparable in importance to . . .advent of biology”
z By 2050 $1,000 computer = all human brains on earth
Provocative thought: Heinberg
“the prospects for maintaining the
coherence of large nation states like
the US . . . appear dim. Lacking an
industrial infrastructure of
production, transportation,
communication, and control, large
nations may eventually devolve into
regional enclaves. . .” (Party’s Over,
pp. 209-210).
Provocative thought: Friedman
“In China today, Bill Gates is Britney
Spears. In America today, Britney
Spears is Britney Spears—and that
is our problem” (World is Flat, p.
351).
Provocative thought: Kurzweil
“Early in the second decade of this century, the Web will provide full immersion
visual-auditory virtual reality with images written directly to our retinas from our
eyeglasses and lenses and very
high-bandwidth wireless internet access woven in our clothing. These capabilities will not be restricted just to the privileged. Just like cell phones, by the time they work well they will be everywhere”
Discussion
{
What are the implications for
education generally?
{
What are the implications for higher
education and faculty?
{
What are the implications for
Contact Information
Tom Franke, Asst. VP & CIO
University of New Hampshire
105 Main Street-307 Thompson Hall
Durham, NH 03824
Bibliography
Primary Sources:
{ Friedman, Thomas L. The World is Flat: A Brief
History of the Twenty-first Century (updated and
expanded edition). Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2006 (first edition, 2005).
{ Heinberg, Richard. The Party’s Over: Oil, War and the
Fate of Industrial Societies (revised and updated
edition). New Society Publishers, 2005 (first edition, 2003).
{ Heinberg, Richard. Power Down: Options and Actions
for a Post-Carbon World. New Society Publishers,
2004.
{ Kurzweil, Ray. The Singularity Is Near: When Humans
Bibliography
Additional resources:
{ On the Singularity:
{ KurzweilAI.net—“includes over six
hundred articles by over one hundred ‘big thinkers’.”
{ Singularity.com—news and information
more specifically related to the book.
{ Kurzweil includes an extensive
bibliography and 111 pages of notes in the book.
Bibliography
Additional resources:
{ On Peak Oil:
{ Deffeyes, Kenneth S. Hubbert’s Peak: The
Impending World Oil Shortage. Princeton
University Press, 2001. This is an elaboration on the science and evidence for peak oil from the perspective of a petroleum geologist who worked for Shell Oil before joining the faculty at
Princeton.
{ Heinberg, Richard. The Oil Depletion Protocol: A
Plan to Avert Oil Wars, Terrorism and Economic Collapse. New Society Publishers, 2006.
Heinberg’s third book apparently focuses on government policy for the impending decline.
Bibliography
Additional resources:
{ On Peak Oil:
{ Tainter, Joseph A. The Collapse of Complex
Societies. In series, New Studies in Archeology.
Cambridge University Press, 1988. Heinberg leans heavily on Tainter’s historical analysis of social
collapse, which he calls “widely recognized as the standard work on the topic” (Party’s Over, p. 34).
{ http://www.peakoil.net/: Web site of the Association
for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO). Includes newsletters of the association, links to national sites, articles,
conferences, and recent developments, as well as links to other sites on this topic.
{ http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/: Declaring that
“Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon,” this site explores social implications of peak oil with somewhat of a survivalist slant.
Bibliography
Additional resources:
{ On the Flat World:
{ Friedman does not provide a bibliography. He
does document many of his points, especially specific data, in good reportorial fashion, but no other books (except his own prior book) appear as key influences. A search on his book’s title will bring up information about Friedman’s book and speaking engagements. A search on the term flat
earth will bring up information about the “flat
earth society,” which believes the world is literally flat! It’s better to search on globalization, which yields sites such as this:
Bibliography
Additional resources:
{ On the Flat World:
{ http://www.globalpolicy.org/globali
z/index.htm : Site provides links and
a bibliography. It is the site of the Global Policy Forum..
{ http://www.sociology.emory.edu/gl
obalization/ provides an overview
and links. The “debates” link gives a succinct summary of some
contentious issues from a social science perspective.
