ICCG 9 - Egbert-

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Dr Ir Egbert-Jan Sol High-Tech Systems & Materials

The low lands – 1500-1600

an economy build on wind

!  Colony of the Catholic Spanish King with representative in Brussels

!  80 years (1560-1640) war in a cold swamp area in NW-Europe

!  The first Republic

!  Trading wood / grain with North Europe for exchange with

southern goods until blocked by the Spanish

Uitgeest

[email protected] 1

Cornelis Corneliszoon van Uitgeest

Inventor (1593) enabling Holland’s Golden Age (1600-1750)

Sawing a tree took 2 men 30 weeks

Still today we know hardly anything on Cornelis van Uitgeest

2

“besonder creckwerk” 3 saws at 120o

Cornelis Corneliszoon van Uitgeest

1593 patent sawing mill – did not work 1597 the improved crankshaft

3

Now sawing a tree took 1 week

That is an improvement of 30 x

4

A society build on wind energy

It required a lot of innovations •  A republic replacing a king

•  A flat instead of hierarchical society •  With bottom-up innovations •  Technological innovations as:

•  The saw-windmills

•  The very economical small “fluit” ships •  The double decks large sail ships •  Geographic sea & first world maps •  Binocculars

•  But also societal and economic innovations •  Around 1600 50+% population in cities •  Dutch 1st_{stock market & (ship) bonds}

NL 400 years later: strong trading (5

th

_{) economy(16}

th

₎

agro/food (2nd_{), petro trading (1}st_{), high-tech (equipment niches 1}st₎

Ex p o rt (2 83 B € ) 223 B€ 36 24

Dutch (internal) market (324 B€)

Im p o rt (2 50 B € ) 113 110 78 Financial, Media and ICT services (815.000 p, 46 B€) Infra, transport & construction (Added value 61 B€ 832.000 p, ) Agro/Food Industry Petro-chemical Industry HighTech Systems (637.000 p, 47 B€) Health Care (1.100.000 people) Government (900.000 people) 5M other jobs 16M population NL 2.3M jobs in value creation

Surplus 32 B€

(6B€ gas)

We Ind ustry

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Challenges

4M 5M 5M 7M 27M 170M 6B Agriculture age 1800:

Till 1800 from 10M to 1B humans (100 x) from hunting and fishing to agriculture Industrial age: how wrong Marx was Since 1800 making & transportation of goods improved (100 x) 2000 and beyond: resource challenge From 1B to 5B middle class consumers we can’t continue to plundering the earth resources, burning fossil fuel and dumping waste, we need to become sustainable What can innovation offer

De missie van TNO

Toepasbaar maken van wetenschappelijke

kennis ter versterking van het

innovatief vermogen van

het bedrijfsleven en van de overheid.

! High-Tech Systems & Materials ! Including Semicon Equipment Materials and Solliance Holst Centre ! Maritime & Offshore ! Sustainable Chemical Industry

High Added Value Knowledge Intensive Niche marketing High Export Value Pushing the limits All about sustainability Make it

happen combinations Surprising

Pushing the limits

! Extreme fast, clean, pure, thin, high pressure, small, still, deep, strong, long lifetime, precise, low power, low cost and more!

! To enable breakthrough innovations in product and process design.

! Bringing private enterprise, knowledge institutes and government together – national (NL) and international

! Chain innovation ! Co creation platforms

(Shared Research) next to bilateral Contract Research

! Built on best practices: ! Holst Centre & ! Solliance

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Surprising Combinations

! Working in Multidisciplinary teams

! Adding ‘the extra expertise and the unexpected’ to top private R&D teams

! Complexity as challenge ! Continuous stimulation of

out of the box thinking ! Great examples such as food

printing, medical diagnoses with radar

It is all about sustainability

! Sustainability refers to lower energy consumption, addressing scarcity in materials and resources, supporting health and well-being of people and efficiency improvements.

! For most companies sustainability is a mean to improve competitiveness

! For the society it allows economic growth without further environmental pressure.

! Chemergy: a great example

Dr Ir Egbert-Jan Sol

! 1956 - Born, Sneek (Fryslân) the Netherlands

! 1973 oil crisis as 16-17 year old teenager

! 1975 - Nijmegen: finished secondary school ! 1979 – Eindhoven: TU/e mechanical engineering

! 1982 ‘financial crisis’ salary reduction as PhD student

! 1983 – Eindhoven: PhD kinematics & dynamics of multi-body systems ! 1983 – 2004: Hoogovens, Philips, BSO/Origin, Ericsson

(steel/robots) (electronics) (software) (communication)

! 1991 near-bankruptcy of Philips Electronics (lay-offs)

! 1990-1998 TU/e1 d/w professor technology mgt (34 year)

! 2000 Internet bubble (Ericsson 60% job vaporized)

! 2004-2009: TNO Science & Industry, CTO

! 2009 Financial crisis

! 2010 – TNO Managing Director High-Tech Systems & Materials

! 2018? Energy & Material crisis (ala Carlotta Perez)

[email protected] 14

Content

!Introduction !History !TNO !Sustainability !Earth

!Material & Energy Scarcity

!100% sustainable by 2050 with solar

!Short term impact on electronics

!New business in thin solar

!Evolution in smaller

!foil electronics

!Additive manufactured products

!Conclusion

Economische groei en golven van

4-5 jaar voorraden en 8-10 jaar investeringen in machines

4-5 jaars dal is mild, maar 8-10 jaar daal doet pijn

0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 2009/1973 2018/1982 4 year cycle (inventory) 8-‐9 year cycle (equipment) total (4 & 8-‐9) growth 1973/2009 1982/2018 [email protected] 16 9/23/12 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2009 /197 3 2018 /198 2 1987 2027 /199 1 2036 /200 0 2045 /200 9

4-year cycle (inventory) 9 year cylce (invest machinery) 19 year cycle (invest build) Kondratieff (50 year) totaal constant growth

5 jaar, 10 jaar, 20 jaar (bouw) en 40 jaar (Kondratieff)

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1973 2009

1982

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Kondratieff waves in economy:

4-5 years waves, 8-10 years, 20 year & 50 (long) waves (0-wave: Dutch + 0 Industrial Revolution (Wood/Wind)) 1-wave: French + 1e_{Industrial Revolution (Railroad)} 2-wave: Marx + Steel Industry (Steam) 3-wave: Capitalism + Electricity (1892-1948) 4-wave: Consumption + Oil (1948-1990)

5-wave: trigged by “computer as communicator” value creation by handling information cheaper and faster (from mainframe, microcomputer to mobile device) Kondratieff:

- A combination of technology & society -  During upswing a lot changes rapidly (1990-2010) - After 20 years it gets quiet again,

as our society grows elder (2010-2030) 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0 80,0 90,0 100,0 19501960197019801990200020102020203020402050 65+ Working 20-64 0-19 2050 1950 1973/2009 1982/2018 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2009/1 973 2018/1 982 1987 2027/1 991 2036/2 000 2045/2 009 4-year cycle (inventory) 9 year cylce (invest machinery) 19 year cycle (invest build) Kondratieff (50 year) totaal constant growth

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The Future is always different

Space Transport

Jules Verne saw a glimpse

A space rocket did not

became a large bullet

It will be ...

What will be our future?

Improvements on Kondratieff

! Kondratieff (1930) – basic mechanism

! Predictions in Stalin period resulted in his deportation & death in Goulag ! Perez (2000)

! Improvements in interactions in technology and financial mechanisms within a Kondratieff cycle of 40-50 years

! (2010 financial trigged crisis, next is technological trigged crisis) ! (2000 was Internet bubble, 2020 ?? Energy scarcity??) ! Current Kondratieff wave – end of 5th_{– depression / stagnation – then 6}th

! 5th_{digitalization (computers, mobile telephony, Internet, mobile data)} ! Global economy, open innovation, but

also looming scarcity issues, elderly population, climate risks ! (relatively) Less growth for many years to come (debt restructuring,

high(-er) prices for energy and raw material, wealth shifts)

6

th

_{Kondratieff 2020-2050 Sustainability}

! No. 5 from 1990-2010 society adapts fast to new tech ! New tech takes / took 25-30 years from idea to 1% use

and another 30 years from 1% to massive use ! Internet 1960-1985, now 2010 everywhere ! Co-operative driving 1990-2015 (1%), 2040 standard

! The 6th_{is about sustainability – (you can’t predict the future: Jules Verne)} ! If company, region adapts to sustainable before 2020 and

full sustainability by 2030, they will still continue to exist, else they dissolve in history (too expensive, etc.) ! Renewable energy, green / biobased energy / raw materials,

nano-technologies (small products)

[email protected]

There is enough for everyone's need,

but there is not enough for everybody's greed

1  Black Swan Surprise invention and we live happy after 2  Gran Tradizionne More of the same, but with some tensions 3  Closed Continents Europe is lacking resources, cost welfare 4  Perfect Storm Tension, drop in welfare, some win, many loose

5  WO III Everybody looses

6  Antarctica We drown (1/13 of earth, 2 km ice)

Perfect Storm Scenario:

Three storms at the same time (2018-2020)

! 1

! BRICK economies will grow rapidly, increase in demand for energy and materials, not for 1B, but for 5B consumers

! Energy prices and minerals grow too fast because of minimal price elasticity: with huge demand, prices explode

! 2

! Then every country want to lower its dependency on fossil fuels, but installing sustainable solutions is too expensive,

! Need for more sustainable energy, even 10-20% in NL creates a huge demand for indium for 1000+ km2 solar cells or neodymium for high power magnets for 10.000 + direct drive windmills

! 3

! And then models for land-ice melting in Antarctica gets accurate and indicate wrong trend, CO2 reduction is desperately pursued to avoid wakening a climate monster.

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Earth Climate:

Moderate or Monster

! Earth 4.5 Billion years old ! Sun heat increases by 40% over

10 Billion years, we are half way ! First Billion years, more CO2,

creating a warm blanket when sun was still cold

! Ice ages 2.2B ago, then 1B year warm period, then the super ice age ! 300M y again huge period of ice ages with low CO2 (New Scientist, 26 jun 2010) ! 

! Last 2M years ups & downs, last 1M years 4 period around CO2 220-280 (homo sapiens max 2M years, once only 1000 humans)

! Sea level can be -120 m below and 75 m above today's level

! Antarctica and Greenland 15% of world area (Wikipedia) and 1500 m land ice, if melted 65 m sea level rise

[email protected] 24 9/23/12

Save the Planet

(is really: save us)

! Mankind: ! Lucy 4 My ! more signs 1 M

! Homo Heidelberg (300.000 y)

! Last 2 ice age (100.000 y) periods 6 m delta in less then 100 years of a period from max ice to no ice of 5000 years

! Last century: rise in order of decimeter, this century in order of meter? ! Today CO2 380 ppm and rising rapidly (max fossil 440 ppm) ! Back to Miocene (20My ago): 6 o_{C warmer & 40 m sea rise in ?????y}

(New Scientist, 22 may 2010, p36 (and the good new is: no ice ages any more))

[email protected] 25 9/23/12 [email protected] 26 9/23/12 [email protected]

There is enough for everyone's need,

but there is not enough for everybody's greed

1  Black Swan Surprise invention and we live happy after 2  Gran Tradizionne More of the same, but with some tensions 3  Closed Continents Europe is lacking resources, cost welfare 4  Perfect Storm Tension, drop in welfare, some win, many loose 5  WO III Everybody looses

6  Antarctica We drown (1/13 of earth, 2 km ice) !  Fixed

! BRICK will (at least initially) continue to grow rapidly ! Fossil fuels and minerals will get more expensive (huge inflation) !  Scenario invariance – postpone / delay hitting the wall

! Lower consumption patterns (less usage, smaller products) ! Secondary / mining / production and cradle to cradle designs ! Substitution and Elements of hope

! More rapid deployment and transition to sustainable energy !  Technology plays a key role, develop innovative solutions and

accelerate the introduction of those greener solutions

Metals 2030 : demand versus production

(Source: Institute for Futures Studies and Technology Assessment (IZT) / Fraunhofer ISI, 2009) Gallium (used in LEDs, solar

cells, IC’s): 6 x

Indium (transparent electrodes in LCD, mobile phones and solar cells): 3 x

Neodymium (lasers, electrical power): 3 x

Germanium (fibre glass and IR optics) : 2 x

Scandium (fuel cells) : 2 x China has 70% of Indium and 97% of Neodymium reserves.

Mid-African countries have monopoly of Cobalt (wear-resistant alloys) and Tantalum (capacitors).

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Europe and the US have already depleted a

significant part of their accessible resources

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Remaining relevant resources of other minerals

“rare”: Cu, Sn, Ni, Sb, Ag, …. “trace”: Pt, In, Se, Ga, ….

Extremely energy-intensive to extract

Source: “Exploring the resource base” by Brian J. Skinner, Yale University, 2001

Mining is in the end an energy challenge too

Mineralogical barrier for elements < 0.1% (mass) earth’s crust

The “Elements of Hope”

H C N O P S Cl non-metal elements Na Mg Al Si elements of hope K Ca Fe Ti Cr Mn Cu B F Ar Br critical elements frugal elements Li Be Sc V Co Ni Zn Ga Ge As Sr Y Zr Nb Mo PGM Ag Cd In Sn Sb Te Ba REM Ta W Re Au Hg Tl Pb Bi

- Elements of Hope are abundant in Earth’s crust, oceans and atmosphere

- The challenge is to realize desired functionality of products with Elements of Hope and to develop processes for production at an economic scale

(use only when unique properties are needed, e.g. Copper and Manganese)

(saved for most critical applications)

[email protected] 31 9/23/12

[email protected]

Passing through the bottleneck

What ever we can do & innovate now,

reduces the future crisis

Proper and timely action: Denial, disbelief and

blind optimism: Armin Reller, 2009

Content

!Conclusion Year GWp Module € / Wp 2010 20 2 2015 250 1 2020 1000 0,60 2025 4000 2030 8000 0,30 2040 24000 0,20 GigaWatts world €/Watt-Peak 100 10 1 0,1 100 GW 1 GW 10.000 GW 1979 2010 2010 2007 Thin Film Silicon

Learning curve for Solar Modules

New data 1000 GW 0,70 10000 GW 0,35

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Extrapolation of solar learning curve and its

consequences

year GW Cum. Installed panels Learning Curve € / Wp 1 GWp fabs New fabs added that year Sales output all fabs 2010 35 2 13 7 40B 2015 285 1 88 15 50B 2020 1210 0,60 263 47 140B 2025 3320 0,40 544 71 300B 2030 7205 0,28 949 96 280B 2040 22800 0,20 2134 146 400B

Solar industry becomes a trillion € market, larger then semicon industry

June 20, 2012 [email protected] Factories of the Future 36

Storage of surpuls solar electricity into hydrocarbons

Surplus Electricity ê Electrolyze of water: 2H2O è 2H2 + O2 í 2H2 + CO2è H2O + CH3OH é ê Surplus CO2 Methanol

CHEMERGY:

store surplus en

ERGY

and

surplus CO2 into

CHEM

ical

fuels

Heinz Frei, 2006, 3-D nanostructure

June 20, 2012 [email protected] Factories of the Future 37 Fixed Costs 25% Operational Costs 5% Raw Materials 43% Scrap costs at inspection 27% Fixed Costs Operational Costs Raw Materials Scrap costs at inspection

Total Cost of Ownership

§ 39

Solliance - CIGS production solutions

30x30 cm2_{demonstrator line + innovative systems}

§ 40

Light Management

200 µm c-Si 1 µm TF µc-Si glass TCO back contact n p Si i TCO back contact n p Si i

Necessary for TF-Si, applicable to CIGS (thinner layers 5->0,5 µm) and OPV (0,1 µm) Amolf

Substrate (100-200 µm) High Conductive Pedot (100 nm) PEDOT (100 nm)

LEP (80 nm) Cathode Ba/Al (5 nm/100-400 nm) Non-transparent barrier

Transparent barrier

What is Atomic Layer Deposition used for?

›

 

ALD is used micro-electronics

›

 

Would be nice to use it for new applications like solar cells and flexible electronics

›

 

ALD is a wonderful technique, but major drawback: Very, very slow….

›

 

Too expensive for low cost – high

volume products like solar cells and flexible electronics.

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From the 2nm/min with classic ALD

to 70 nm/min Spatial ALD

TMA 20 ms H2O 60 ms Purge/Pump 2 s Purge/Pump 4 s Purge/Pump 4 s TMA 20 ms

SolayTec Ultrafast ALD

TNO spin-off offers a “Process Development Tool”

(100 wafers/hr) and an in-line“High Volume Tool” (3.000 wafers/hr) 156 x 156 mm2_{Solar cell wafer}

Full area, ~ 100 nm Al2O3

www.SoLayTec.org

! Spatial ALD mainly used on rigid substrates

Does it also work for flexible substrates?

! Possible application: encapsulation (WVTR < 10-5_g/m2_{/day with 50 nm alumina)}

Challenges:

! Foil deformation and strain ! Contamination

! Thick films (compared with passivation layers) ! Large substrates

! Temperature

Spatial ALD on flexible substrates

›

 

No mechanical contact on deposition side

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Flexibility in foil- and layer-thickness

›

 

Compact

Roll-to-roll Spatial ALD: TNO approach

We are still searching for companies to join us in this Solliance program contact author [email protected] or [email protected]

Content

!Conclusion

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50 1000 100 10 1 1000 nm 436 nm 365 nm 248 nm 193 nm 130 nm 90 nm 65 nm 45 nm 32 nm 22 nm 16 nm 10 nm From micro-electronics in 1970 to nano-electronics in 2000

with in 2020: 10 nm, 450 mm, EUV, in 3D chip with 512GB, 8 layer, 1000 TSV and 50Gb/s optic. chan.

nano-photonics: Manipulating photons Si-Photonics 2000-2030 optic computing 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 nano-cats: 3D nano structures for chemergy processes

Nano-Tech

[email protected] Factories of the Future

Industrial Technologies: creating value at smaller scales

Food structures made with (crude) Rapid Manuf. printing

Trend Manufacturing: Meter sized metal constructions (pre 1950) Value create at Electronics tubes at millimeter precision

Micro electronics Nano lithography

Trend Processes: Meter sized vessels and refinery columns (400y) Value create at Process Intensification at mm scale Lab-on-Chips

Micro droplet printing, or jetting Nano manipulation at molecule level Trend Food Preparation: Mixing in pots & pans to …

Value create at controlling food & nutriënts at millimeter level

51 June 20, 2012 [email protected] Factories of the Future

Source: Jonathan Koomey, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and Stanford University, 2009

Lithography: keeping Moore’s law alive

Computations per Kilowatt hour double every 1.5 years

Scale log mm3_:

1890 US census (human & electro-mech)

12 1940 relay based cryptography 1000 m3 (= 10 x 10 x 10 m)

11 1955 vacuum-tube 100 m3 (= 5 x 5 x 5 m = 125 m3) 10 1959 mainframe discrete transitor Appollo 10 m3 (=2.5 x 2.5 x 2.5 m = 15,6 m3)

9 1970 minicomputer integrated circuit 1 m3 = 1000 dm3 = 10^6 cm3 = 10^9 mm3

8 1979 microcomputer = human body 100 dm3 =(50 x 50 x 50 cm3) 7 1984 AT 36 liter, 1988 Pentium 22 liter 10 dm3 =10 liter (15 lt = 25 x 25 x 25 cm3)

6 1992 notebook 2 lt 1 dm3 = 1000 cm3 = 10 x 10 x 10 cm3

5 2000 PDA = appx 5 cm3 100 cm3 = 5(12,5) x 5 x 5(2) cm3 4 2008 SiP = appx 2,5 cm3 cubic inch 10 cm3 = 2,5 x 2,5 x 2,5 cm3

1 mm x 12,5 cm x 12,5 cm

3 2017 cubic centimeter 1 cm3 = 1000 mm3 = 10 x 10 x 10 mm3

2 2025 intelligent push-pin (punaiske) 100 mm3

From mainframe to smart push-pins

3-times an order of 1000

•  Dimensions: pin length 10 mm by 1 mm

top 10 mm diameter by 1 to 2 mm thickness volume: pi x 5 square x 1 + 10 = 100 mm3

Learning curve for smart devices

(from mainframe to ambient push-pin computer)

Push-Pin 2020 S-i-P 2010 PDA 2001 Notebk 97 Pentium 92 PC-AT 84 Mini 79 Mainframe 1959 0 3 6 9 12 0 3 6 9 12 15

Log 10 (Cum. Amount of devices) 6=1M, 9=1B

L o g 1 0 (V o lu m e (hxbxl ) m m 3) 12 = 1000 B 1x1x1 cm devices by ? 2020 10 = 10B 5x5x5 cm PDA/phones by today

(c) TNO Industrial Technologies, Egbert-Jan Sol, [email protected], 2004

Note: SiP = System in a Package 11 = 100B 1 cubic” (2,5 cm) devices by ? 2010 25 mm x 25 mm x 25 mm 1 mm thick x 125 mm x 125 mm 9 = 1B 10x10x10 cm (1 liter) devices by 2000 54

2. Scope and objectives

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TSV creation Bump creation Carrier bonding Placing Collective bonding Molding Singulation Cleaning Wafer thinning Dicing Picking Inspection TSV filling [email protected] 81 81

Typical System in Package

From stacked toward laminated into a foil

Metal Jetters

Flexible displays/phones

Injection moulded top Fragile glass display Multiple electronic devices

PCB Battery Injection moulded bottom

Lots of small screws!

Functional analysis of iPhone

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2. Scope and objectives

Equipment for: Integrated Products? Step 1: Deposition of base with integrated conductors Step 2: Placement of multilayer chip and

thin film battery

Step 3: Lamination of foil display Step 4: Deposition of finalizing layers, sealing system Semicon equip ment, single ch ip

Large area ele ctronics , displa

y in foil

Integra_{ted Pro} ducts, integ_rated in on_{e sing} e pro duct, n_{o asse} mbly

Integrated Sol ar Cell?

From Rapid Prototyping to Additive Manufacturing

From a night batch to continuous production

Line speed: up to 2 m/s DOD print heads: 2x Dimatix printheads CIJ print heads: 2x Multi nozzle CIJ Domino BitJet+ Build platform: 100x

Build platform size: 50mm x 75mm

Goal:

100 products 50 x 75 x 6 mm in 10 minutes One product every 6 sec!

88 June 20, 2012 [email protected] Factories of the Future

89

Additive manufacturing, like anything else digital, is already becoming both cheaper and more effective. The big breakthrough would be in workflow. At present 3D printers make things one at a time or in small batches. But if they could work in a continuous process—like the pill-making machine in the Novartis-MIT laboratory—they could be used on a moving production line. The aim would be to build things faster and more flexibly rather than to achieve economies of scale. Such a line could be used to build products that are too big to fit into existing 3D printers and, because the machine is digitally controlled, a different item could be built on each platform, making mass customisation possible. That would allow the technology to take off.

Can it be done? Back to the EuroMold exhibition, where TNO, an independent research group based in the Netherlands, showed a novel machine with 100 platforms travelling around a carousel in a continuous loop. A variety of 3D-printing heads would deposit plastics, metals or ceramics onto each platform as they pass to make complete products, layer by layer. Scale up the idea, straighten out the carousel and you have a production line with multiple printing heads.

The Economist – 21st April 2012

Making the future - How robots and people team up to manufacture things in new ways

http://www.economist.com/node/21552897

Conclusions

!The next crisis is on Sustainability

when several innovation succeed (ultra low cost solar, chemical storage, ..)

!Short term impact

!New business in solar & storage

!3D chips & foil electronics

!And even for these developments

a lot of innovations are needed

!here at the HTC in Eindhoven