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Future Commercial Aircraft
Professor Andrew Walker
Christine Bowling
AEROSPACE MARKET
CLASSIFICATION OF AEROSPACE MARKET
ACCORDING TO AIRCRAFT TYPE
-Turboprop - Jet - Piston - Turboprop - Bizjet - Civil - Military -Fighter -Ground attacker -Bomber -Trainer -UAV -Satellite -Launch Vehicle REGIONAL JET GENERAL AVIATION
HELICOPTER DEFENCE SPACE
$7.7bn $11.4bn $9.2bn $36.9bn $17.2bn Global Market 2008 COMMERCIAL AEROSPACE $51.0bn -Narrow-body Aircraft - Wide-body Aircraft
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A G E N D A
1. Commercial Demand
2. Future Aircraft
3. Composites – Design & Manufacturing
4. Carbon Fibre
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1. Commercial – Demand Forecast
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World Passenger Air Travel in 2008
25.9% 2.5% 9.5% 14% 2.6% 1.4% 9.7% 9.7% 16.4% in 2022 18.4% in 2022 Region 1999-2008 2009-2018 1999-2018 Africa 203 354 457
Asia, Oceania and CIS 1664 2844 4508
Europe 2794 3221 6015
Middle East 285 270 555 Central America, Caribbean &
South America
652 734 1386
North America 3304 3925 7229 Total 8902 11248 20150
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Fuel Burn
50% reduction in fuel consumption per passenger by 2020
20% more efficient engines
30% advanced airframes (CFRP) and aerodynamics
Streamlined ATM?
“Triple the number of passengers flying by 2020”
Need to reduce emissions by 65% or better?
20 June 2005 oil hits ~ $60 per barrel in the Far East!
At $60 Barrel - Aircraft Operations lost $6.2 billion in 2005
NB: Profit of $6 billion would represent an operating margin of 3%
21 April 2006 oil hits ~ $75 per barrel in New York Cathay Pacific – 12% wasted fuel
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Low Mass Transport Systems
• It is common convention to describe Newton‟s 2
ndLaw
• Thus if we reduce the mass of a moving object, we
reduce the energy required to move it.
• The passenger to weight ratio of a vehicle or aircraft is a
key measure of its energy consumption efficiency.
Force = Mass x Acceleration
Paradox – rising fuel costs and increasing
vehicle/airframe weights
8 8 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 750 950 1050 1150 1250 1350 850 1450 1550 Ford Escort MK2 Ford Escort MK3 Ford Escort MK4 Ford Escort MK5 Ford Focus VW Golf Mk1 VW Golf Mk2 VW Golf Mk3 VW Golf Mk4 2004 Citroen GS Citroen BX VW Golf Mk5 Citroen ZX Citroen Xsara Toyota Corolla Toyota Corolla Toyota Corolla Toyota Corolla Toyota Corolla Toyota Corolla Astra Mk1 Astra Mk2 Astra Mk3 Astra Mk4 Astra Mk5 Vauxhall Cavalier Mk1 Cavalier Mk2 Cavalier Mk3 Vectra 1 Vectra 2 YEARS Kg
Vehicle Weight by Generation
Weight per passenger
BOEING 707
1954, 700kg/passenger
AIRBUS A380
2008, 1,100kg/passenger
(Approx. 430k litres of fuel
per day)
An Economic Crisis
“ COMMERCIAL AVIATION is a mature
industry at the end of its current product life
cycle, our Industry requires a more efficient
aircraft – a composite airframe, advanced
engines and electric systems!”
or Business Opportunity!
• Airbus A320 $61-$67m (inc. discount) – Annual full bill $20m
• JET „A‟ Fuel $0.71 per gallon in 2002. $3.92 → $4.65 in 2008 (Forecast $2.70/gal,
2009)
• Fuel is 50-60% of operators cost
• If we cut fuel burn by 30%, we save $6m/yr per single aisle
• A320 order book ~ 2450 aircraft, build rate ~35 aircraft per month
• Airbus likely to build 4000-5000 single aisle aircraft over the next 10 years
• General inflation will start feeding into manufacturing cost of metallic aircraft in
2009 and there is no room absorb increased prices. - lean programmes running.
Evolution or Revolution
• New efficient designs sell for premium prices! (B787 Vs B767, B747-8 Vs B747 Classic) Options
• A320 enhanced, 4-5% Fuel saving, aircraft “sales” value $64m-$70m each (2010)
• Revised A320 with GTF powered engine (Geared Turbo Fan), 12-18% fuel saving (2014)
• New A32X Composite Airframe/Electric Systems/GTF Engine, 30% fuel saving? - aircraft sales value $80 – $90m each (2016)
• 400 aircraft per year @ $20m → $8bn extra sales
• “CHICKEN AND EGG” (Pratt & Witney laid the egg!)
• Retention value of existing metallic fleet Vs replacement requirements
• Customers want new aircraft now!
• Will Boeing lead Airbus?
• New mainstream single aisle manufacturer?
AIRBUS A320 ENHANCED
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DC3
Aluminium Aeroplane War Technology
Merlin Engine Pressured Cabin – Boeing 307 Constellation
TWA
707, Swept Wing, Jets Pan-Am 747 A300 A380 787 Composites Jetliner - 102 Comet Tu-104 DC-10 1930‟s 1940‟s 1960‟s 1970‟s 2004 De-regulation Timeline Boeing 707 Golden Anniversary
Activity
Index
Flying Wing Approx. 30% improvement over 50 years 30% efficiency improvement over 5-10 yearsCommercial Aircraft
EUREKA TIMES1927 – 1932 Biplanes to Monoplanes
Vickers Vernon (1927)
Boeing 247 (1932)
• Metal Construction
• Monocoque (Stressed-Skin) Construction • Cantilevered Wing
• Variable Pitch Propeller • Reliable Engine
• Retractable Landing Gear
“An Operators Perspective”
• 115 Aircraft
-
15, B747-400
(14+ hours/day)
-
13, B747-400F
(14 hours/day)
-
58, B777-200/200ER/300
(15+ hours/day)
-
19, B777-300ER
(14 hours/day)
-
5, A340-500
(16+ hours/day)
-
5, A380-800
4
thlargest airline in terms of international (RPK) Revenue Pax
Kilometre
FLEET OPERATION CHARACTERISTICS
• “Operating a demanding deployment pattern while not
compromising safety and high service standard
demands reduction or elimination of unscheduled flight
interruptions”.
• The challenge “To create high reliability in an
environment fraught with uncertainties”
Corrosion: 33% of aluminium floor beams replaced in B747-400 after 5 years (25 man hours each beam)
No corrosion in CFRP B777-200/300s after 10 years!
The Maintenance Bag
Corrosion Costs Repairability Weight Fatigue Reliability
Worries
1. Insidious mode of failure. Aluminium Cracking Propagation is well
understood.
February 1989, SIA, “ Composite Rudder Panel bulging & billowing wind” (3 months repair + similar defect on 2 other aircraft)
2. Susceptibility to Heat Cold and Heat “SIA lost a portion of thrust reverse in
December 2007”. Overheating of CFRP by hot air. Cold also a problem -50°c!
3. Full or Zero Repair Approach “Quick & dirty option”
Consequence of Unscheduled Event
The Goal is to eliminate all
unscheduled events
Conclusions
“Composites enable us to do more with less”
“Next Quantum leap involves making
detection of defects and repair actions simpler and more convenient”
“The ultimate challenge is to have a new
composite material that has active health
monitoring features embedded, to accurately pre-empt failures”
“In this way we would be the „master of the
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2. FUTURE AIRCRAFT – REVOLUTION!
- Payload ratio
- Drag
22 22 Timeline A380 Eclipse 500 ARJ 21 Cessna Mustang Honda Jet
FUTURE AIRCRAFT
Composites Avionics Payloads Blended Wing Boeing 787 Airbus A350 Oblique Wing Activity Index (air traffic) (value) (performance)23
Airbus A380 (500+ passenger sector, 330 aircraft -
2008-2024)
A380 Fuselage
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Airbus A350
(large twin aisle sector ~2300 aircraft 2008 - 2024)
35% of the aircraft, by weight, will be CFRP
Conventional Derivative of the A330
Original entry into service 2010
Major Redesign
Now 2012-2014
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Boeing 787 Dreamliner
(Small Twin Aisle Sector, 3200 aircraft 2008 - 2024)
More than 50% composite aircraft
Faustian bargain with Japan, nearly 70% foreign content, wings!
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Single Aisle (sector 17000+ aircraft 2007-2024)
100-200 Seats
Boeing Y1 Project (2014)
scaled version of 787? composite airframe
higher aspect ratio wing design
Airbus A320 successor (2015)
higher bypass engines extended wingspan reduced rear stabilisers
Bombardier CSeries (sector 5900 aircraft 2008- 2024)
PI = Range x Speed x Volume MTOW
Flying 2008 – 15% more efficient than Airbus, Boeing or Embraer
100-150 seater – 4 models / 2 fuselage lengths – maximum take-off weight 55-66T – seating is 5 abreast 3-2 layout
A new aircraft family to fill the sweet-spot between regional jets and mid-size airlines A318 107 seats $45m A319 124 seats $55m A320 150 seats $62m B717 107 seats $40m RJ’s 100 seats $30m ENTRY IN SERVICE 2013
Boeing Yellowstone Project
Yellowstone is a Boeing Commercial Airplanes project to replace its entire Civil Aircraft Portfolio. (Composite aerostructures, electrical systems and new turbofan engines)
Yellowstone 3 and Airbus A370
350+ seats, twin deck, twin engine
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HAWKER BEECHCRAFT
PREMIER 1
First Commercial Aircraft to utilize an all composite fuselage manufactured using Cincinnati System
Adam Aircraft Honda
Total Market for Business and General Aviation
19,700 aircraft 2005 - 2014
29,800 aircraft 2014 - 2024
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3. COMPOSITES
Weight Saving and Aerodynamics
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Percentage of Total Take-off Weight
Vimy Commercial 1920 Vickers Viscount 1956 Modern Single Aisle 1986 Modern Long Range 1979 Concorde Supersonic 1969 Payload 17 14 24 18 9 Fuel 25 23 18 37 48 Systems Crew etc. 11 25 18 12 10 Power Plant 18 12 11 10 10 Structure 29 26 29 23 23
History shows we need to improve payload/performance by 30% to “ignite” a new Triz curve.
A300-600F Boeing 737NG Freight A380-800F Freighter A400M
Payload
~30
~26
~26
25-28
Performance Targets
Advanced Aircraft Technologies
Weight Reduction Drag Reduction Engines
Manufacturing Design + Advanced Materials Aerodynamics + Composites 12% fuel saving in 2014 17%-19% saving in 2020 6.5% fuel saving 5.5%-6.0% fuel saving Low Noise 29% - 31% FUEL SAVING 11% 7%
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Composite Applications in the
Aerospace Market
Boeing 777 – Different composite material systems
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Bell Boeing V-22 Osprey
Interior of V-22 wing upper surface shows the integral skin and stringers in the one-piece composite structure (picture taken from book by Bill Norton)
V-22 wing for the GTA being fitted in a manufacturing fixture (picture taken from book by Bill Norton)
Assembly hall in Ridley Park August 1988
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Composites allow a wing to be designed with a smaller wing box
Baseline B787-8 wing box aspect ratio of 10. B777-200 has a ratio of 8.7
Composites are particularly suited to very large aircraft
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Airflow is the greatest single determining factor for aircraft
performance
Cd A380 = 0.0133 Typical subsonic
transport Cd = 0.012
COMPOSITE MATERIAL properties allow for the design of high aspect ratio wings (increased laminar airflow and reduced turbulent airflow )
REDUCED DRAG DUE TO ENHANCED AERODYNAMICS
AERODYNAMICS
F-8 Supercritical Wing (1973)
Laminar Airflow
Airflow stays attached to the wing. The greater the region of separated flow the greater the drag.
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Geodetic (Basketweave) Principle
Barnes Wallis, Wellington Bomber
Spirally wound retaining wire mesh attached to a
secondary structure
Geodetic line - “Shortest distance between two
points on a curved surface”
Loads carried by shortest route
Eliminates internal load carrying structure
Single Aisle, Geodetic/Carbon Composite aircraft
Payload of 34%
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Vickers 432 experimental
wing
R-100 Airship
Wellington Factory
Design Rules
1. Curves not Corners
2. Linear joints rather than bolts and rivets
3. Reduce component “part” count!
4. Wings - high aspect ratio, avoid moving leading edge
- smooth surfaces
- GINA shape, changing system
- reduce monuments, front spar, ribs - high flexural wing
- laminar airflow! (on main wing and aerofoils)
- no centre wing box (streamline wing to fuselage fairing)
5. Fuselage - “tubes” not “panels”
6. “Small” Empanage
7. “Electric” not “hydraulic”
8. Accurate assembly, water jet cutting
9. Materials Specification – Use of different grades of carbon fibre, prepregs etc.
STRATEGY – NEW SINGLE AISLE COMPOSITE AIRFRAME AIRCRAFT
Vertical Integration
Design for “Use” (Design for Manufacture)
Optimized Virtual Design
Netshape woven textiles
– Advanced Materials Processing Low Cost Composites Net Shape Assembly Low Cost Self Monitoring (NDT) Healing Self
25% Wt Saving - 25% reduction in manufacturing costs – 25% reduction in operating costs
Timescales
0-3 years 3 years 5 years 6 years
Low hanging fruit Simple Primary Medium to Large Primary Wings & Fuselage
- interiors ribs rear pressure bulkhead complete fuselage
- secondary structures stringers tail sector wings
- fuel pipes floor beams complex and thick sections engines general aviation components composite pylons
Philosophy
Background Objectives Scope Constraints Assumptions Resources Deliverables Output Value
Year A320 A330-A340 A340-600 A380 A400M Total
2007 371 71 10 1 0 453
2008 389 77 12 8 1 487
2009 414 87 10 30 12 553
2010 414 89 10 50 19 582
Year A350 A32X
2014 3 0 2015 65 (140) 4 2016 100 (140) 80 (150) 2017 110 (140) 370 (360) 2018 130 (140) 460 (480) Year B787 Y1 2007 0 2008 7 2009 49 2010 96 2011 148 2012 180 2013 200 2014 200 1 2015 200 65 2016 225 180 2017 200 260 2018 200 450
FORECAST DELIVER FOR NEW AIRCRAFT
A350 & A32X (NEW SINGLE AISLE)
BOEING – B787 & Y1 (NEW SINGLE AISLE)
The above are aircraft delivery dates, components generally enter the supply chain 2-3 years before delivery of the first aircraft.
Both Airbus and Boeing estimate aircraft demand to be about 1000 large passenger aircraft from 2009. However, when we add forecast build numbers, the total is ~1270 aircraft/year (from 2010). Passenger travel is growing at around 6% per year. It therefore seems likely that the “1000” number is a serious underestimate.
4. CARBON FIBRE
Estimated Carbon Fibre Demand (Tonnes)
2006-2020
Confirmed Scenario Forecast Scenario Aluminium Model 2006 2010 2020 2020 2020 Civil Aviation Existing aircraft (A320, B777 etc) B747 Replacement B777 Replacement A380 A350 B787New B737 and A32X
3,700 200 - 100 - 5,200 2,000 - 3,000 - 3,400 2,000 2,700 6,000 15,000 2,000 2,600 6,000 2,200 8,500 6,000 15,000 Military
Fighters, transport, helicopters 900 1,250 1,800 2,600
Regional Aircraft and Business Jets 230 488 625
1,200
Total 5,130 11,938 31,525 46,100
Wind Energy 3,750 7,500 20,000 60,000
Sports 5,420 6,660 8,330 9,000
Industrial (including gas tanks) 11,660 16,666 25,830 50,000
Other uses (including anti-ballistic & medical) 1,000 1,000 1,000 2,000