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Future Commercial Aircraft

Professor Andrew Walker

Christine Bowling

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AEROSPACE MARKET

CLASSIFICATION OF AEROSPACE MARKET

ACCORDING TO AIRCRAFT TYPE

-Turboprop - Jet - Piston - Turboprop - Bizjet - Civil - Military -Fighter -Ground attacker -Bomber -Trainer -UAV -Satellite -Launch Vehicle REGIONAL JET GENERAL AVIATION

HELICOPTER DEFENCE SPACE

$7.7bn $11.4bn $9.2bn $36.9bn $17.2bn Global Market 2008 COMMERCIAL AEROSPACE $51.0bn -Narrow-body Aircraft - Wide-body Aircraft

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A G E N D A

1. Commercial Demand

2. Future Aircraft

3. Composites – Design & Manufacturing

4. Carbon Fibre

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1. Commercial – Demand Forecast

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World Passenger Air Travel in 2008

25.9% 2.5% 9.5% 14% 2.6% 1.4% 9.7% 9.7% 16.4% in 2022 18.4% in 2022 Region 1999-2008 2009-2018 1999-2018 Africa 203 354 457

Asia, Oceania and CIS 1664 2844 4508

Europe 2794 3221 6015

Middle East 285 270 555 Central America, Caribbean &

South America

652 734 1386

North America 3304 3925 7229 Total 8902 11248 20150

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Fuel Burn

50% reduction in fuel consumption per passenger by 2020

20% more efficient engines

30% advanced airframes (CFRP) and aerodynamics

Streamlined ATM?

“Triple the number of passengers flying by 2020”

Need to reduce emissions by 65% or better?

20 June 2005 oil hits ~ $60 per barrel in the Far East!

At $60 Barrel - Aircraft Operations lost $6.2 billion in 2005

NB: Profit of $6 billion would represent an operating margin of 3%

21 April 2006 oil hits ~ $75 per barrel in New York Cathay Pacific – 12% wasted fuel

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Low Mass Transport Systems

• It is common convention to describe Newton‟s 2

nd

Law

• Thus if we reduce the mass of a moving object, we

reduce the energy required to move it.

• The passenger to weight ratio of a vehicle or aircraft is a

key measure of its energy consumption efficiency.

Force = Mass x Acceleration

Paradox – rising fuel costs and increasing

vehicle/airframe weights

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8 8 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 750 950 1050 1150 1250 1350 850 1450 1550 Ford Escort MK2 Ford Escort MK3 Ford Escort MK4 Ford Escort MK5 Ford Focus VW Golf Mk1 VW Golf Mk2 VW Golf Mk3 VW Golf Mk4 2004 Citroen GS Citroen BX VW Golf Mk5 Citroen ZX Citroen Xsara Toyota Corolla Toyota Corolla Toyota Corolla Toyota Corolla Toyota Corolla Toyota Corolla Astra Mk1 Astra Mk2 Astra Mk3 Astra Mk4 Astra Mk5 Vauxhall Cavalier Mk1 Cavalier Mk2 Cavalier Mk3 Vectra 1 Vectra 2 YEARS Kg

Vehicle Weight by Generation

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Weight per passenger

BOEING 707

1954, 700kg/passenger

AIRBUS A380

2008, 1,100kg/passenger

(Approx. 430k litres of fuel

per day)

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An Economic Crisis

“ COMMERCIAL AVIATION is a mature

industry at the end of its current product life

cycle, our Industry requires a more efficient

aircraft – a composite airframe, advanced

engines and electric systems!”

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or Business Opportunity!

Airbus A320 $61-$67m (inc. discount) – Annual full bill $20m

JET „A‟ Fuel $0.71 per gallon in 2002. $3.92 → $4.65 in 2008 (Forecast $2.70/gal,

2009)

Fuel is 50-60% of operators cost

If we cut fuel burn by 30%, we save $6m/yr per single aisle

A320 order book ~ 2450 aircraft, build rate ~35 aircraft per month

Airbus likely to build 4000-5000 single aisle aircraft over the next 10 years

General inflation will start feeding into manufacturing cost of metallic aircraft in

2009 and there is no room absorb increased prices. - lean programmes running.

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Evolution or Revolution

New efficient designs sell for premium prices! (B787 Vs B767, B747-8 Vs B747 Classic) Options

A320 enhanced, 4-5% Fuel saving, aircraft “sales” value $64m-$70m each (2010)

Revised A320 with GTF powered engine (Geared Turbo Fan), 12-18% fuel saving (2014)

New A32X Composite Airframe/Electric Systems/GTF Engine, 30% fuel saving? - aircraft sales value $80 – $90m each (2016)

400 aircraft per year @ $20m → $8bn extra sales

“CHICKEN AND EGG” (Pratt & Witney laid the egg!)

Retention value of existing metallic fleet Vs replacement requirements

Customers want new aircraft now!

Will Boeing lead Airbus?

New mainstream single aisle manufacturer?

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AIRBUS A320 ENHANCED

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14 14

DC3

Aluminium Aeroplane War Technology

Merlin Engine Pressured Cabin – Boeing 307 Constellation

TWA

707, Swept Wing, Jets Pan-Am 747 A300 A380 787 Composites Jetliner - 102 Comet Tu-104 DC-10 1930‟s 1940‟s 1960‟s 1970‟s 2004 De-regulation Timeline Boeing 707 Golden Anniversary

Activity

Index

Flying Wing Approx. 30% improvement over 50 years 30% efficiency improvement over 5-10 years

Commercial Aircraft

EUREKA TIMES

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1927 – 1932 Biplanes to Monoplanes

Vickers Vernon (1927)

Boeing 247 (1932)

• Metal Construction

• Monocoque (Stressed-Skin) Construction • Cantilevered Wing

• Variable Pitch Propeller • Reliable Engine

• Retractable Landing Gear

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“An Operators Perspective”

• 115 Aircraft

-

15, B747-400

(14+ hours/day)

-

13, B747-400F

(14 hours/day)

-

58, B777-200/200ER/300

(15+ hours/day)

-

19, B777-300ER

(14 hours/day)

-

5, A340-500

(16+ hours/day)

-

5, A380-800

4

th

largest airline in terms of international (RPK) Revenue Pax

Kilometre

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FLEET OPERATION CHARACTERISTICS

• “Operating a demanding deployment pattern while not

compromising safety and high service standard

demands reduction or elimination of unscheduled flight

interruptions”.

• The challenge “To create high reliability in an

environment fraught with uncertainties”

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Corrosion: 33% of aluminium floor beams replaced in B747-400 after 5 years (25 man hours each beam)

No corrosion in CFRP B777-200/300s after 10 years!

The Maintenance Bag

Corrosion Costs Repairability Weight Fatigue Reliability

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Worries

1. Insidious mode of failure. Aluminium Cracking Propagation is well

understood.

February 1989, SIA, “ Composite Rudder Panel bulging & billowing wind” (3 months repair + similar defect on 2 other aircraft)

2. Susceptibility to Heat Cold and Heat “SIA lost a portion of thrust reverse in

December 2007”. Overheating of CFRP by hot air. Cold also a problem -50°c!

3. Full or Zero Repair Approach “Quick & dirty option”

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Consequence of Unscheduled Event

The Goal is to eliminate all

unscheduled events

Conclusions

“Composites enable us to do more with less”

“Next Quantum leap involves making

detection of defects and repair actions simpler and more convenient”

“The ultimate challenge is to have a new

composite material that has active health

monitoring features embedded, to accurately pre-empt failures”

“In this way we would be the „master of the

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21 21

2. FUTURE AIRCRAFT – REVOLUTION!

- Payload ratio

- Drag

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22 22 Timeline A380 Eclipse 500 ARJ 21 Cessna Mustang Honda Jet

FUTURE AIRCRAFT

Composites Avionics Payloads Blended Wing Boeing 787 Airbus A350 Oblique Wing Activity Index (air traffic) (value) (performance)

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23

Airbus A380 (500+ passenger sector, 330 aircraft -

2008-2024)

A380 Fuselage

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25 25

Airbus A350

(large twin aisle sector ~2300 aircraft 2008 - 2024)

35% of the aircraft, by weight, will be CFRP

Conventional Derivative of the A330

Original entry into service 2010

Major Redesign

Now 2012-2014

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30 30

Boeing 787 Dreamliner

(Small Twin Aisle Sector, 3200 aircraft 2008 - 2024)

More than 50% composite aircraft

Faustian bargain with Japan, nearly 70% foreign content, wings!

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31 31

Single Aisle (sector 17000+ aircraft 2007-2024)

100-200 Seats

Boeing Y1 Project (2014)

scaled version of 787? composite airframe

higher aspect ratio wing design

Airbus A320 successor (2015)

higher bypass engines extended wingspan reduced rear stabilisers

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Bombardier CSeries (sector 5900 aircraft 2008- 2024)

PI = Range x Speed x Volume MTOW

Flying 2008 – 15% more efficient than Airbus, Boeing or Embraer

100-150 seater – 4 models / 2 fuselage lengths – maximum take-off weight 55-66T – seating is 5 abreast 3-2 layout

A new aircraft family to fill the sweet-spot between regional jets and mid-size airlines A318 107 seats $45m A319 124 seats $55m A320 150 seats $62m B717 107 seats $40m RJ’s 100 seats $30m ENTRY IN SERVICE 2013

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Boeing Yellowstone Project

Yellowstone is a Boeing Commercial Airplanes project to replace its entire Civil Aircraft Portfolio. (Composite aerostructures, electrical systems and new turbofan engines)

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Yellowstone 3 and Airbus A370

350+ seats, twin deck, twin engine

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39 39

HAWKER BEECHCRAFT

PREMIER 1

First Commercial Aircraft to utilize an all composite fuselage manufactured using Cincinnati System

Adam Aircraft Honda

Total Market for Business and General Aviation

19,700 aircraft 2005 - 2014

29,800 aircraft 2014 - 2024

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40 40

3. COMPOSITES

Weight Saving and Aerodynamics

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41 41

Percentage of Total Take-off Weight

Vimy Commercial 1920 Vickers Viscount 1956 Modern Single Aisle 1986 Modern Long Range 1979 Concorde Supersonic 1969 Payload 17 14 24 18 9 Fuel 25 23 18 37 48 Systems Crew etc. 11 25 18 12 10 Power Plant 18 12 11 10 10 Structure 29 26 29 23 23

History shows we need to improve payload/performance by 30% to “ignite” a new Triz curve.

A300-600F Boeing 737NG Freight A380-800F Freighter A400M

Payload

~30

~26

~26

25-28

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Performance Targets

Advanced Aircraft Technologies

Weight Reduction Drag Reduction Engines

Manufacturing Design + Advanced Materials Aerodynamics + Composites 12% fuel saving in 2014 17%-19% saving in 2020 6.5% fuel saving 5.5%-6.0% fuel saving Low Noise 29% - 31% FUEL SAVING 11% 7%

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43 43

Composite Applications in the

Aerospace Market

Boeing 777 – Different composite material systems

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44 44

Bell Boeing V-22 Osprey

Interior of V-22 wing upper surface shows the integral skin and stringers in the one-piece composite structure (picture taken from book by Bill Norton)

V-22 wing for the GTA being fitted in a manufacturing fixture (picture taken from book by Bill Norton)

Assembly hall in Ridley Park August 1988

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Composites allow a wing to be designed with a smaller wing box

Baseline B787-8 wing box aspect ratio of 10. B777-200 has a ratio of 8.7

Composites are particularly suited to very large aircraft

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58 58

Airflow is the greatest single determining factor for aircraft

performance

Cd A380 = 0.0133 Typical subsonic

transport Cd = 0.012

COMPOSITE MATERIAL properties allow for the design of high aspect ratio wings (increased laminar airflow and reduced turbulent airflow )

REDUCED DRAG DUE TO ENHANCED AERODYNAMICS

AERODYNAMICS

F-8 Supercritical Wing (1973)

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Laminar Airflow

Airflow stays attached to the wing. The greater the region of separated flow the greater the drag.

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60 60

Geodetic (Basketweave) Principle

Barnes Wallis, Wellington Bomber

Spirally wound retaining wire mesh attached to a

secondary structure

Geodetic line - “Shortest distance between two

points on a curved surface”

Loads carried by shortest route

Eliminates internal load carrying structure

Single Aisle, Geodetic/Carbon Composite aircraft

Payload of 34%

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61 61

Vickers 432 experimental

wing

R-100 Airship

Wellington Factory

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Design Rules

1. Curves not Corners

2. Linear joints rather than bolts and rivets

3. Reduce component “part” count!

4. Wings - high aspect ratio, avoid moving leading edge

- smooth surfaces

- GINA shape, changing system

- reduce monuments, front spar, ribs - high flexural wing

- laminar airflow! (on main wing and aerofoils)

- no centre wing box (streamline wing to fuselage fairing)

5. Fuselage - “tubes” not “panels”

6. “Small” Empanage

7. “Electric” not “hydraulic”

8. Accurate assembly, water jet cutting

9. Materials Specification – Use of different grades of carbon fibre, prepregs etc.

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STRATEGY – NEW SINGLE AISLE COMPOSITE AIRFRAME AIRCRAFT

Vertical Integration

Design for “Use” (Design for Manufacture)

Optimized Virtual Design

Netshape woven textiles

– Advanced Materials Processing Low Cost Composites Net Shape Assembly Low Cost Self Monitoring (NDT) Healing Self

25% Wt Saving - 25% reduction in manufacturing costs – 25% reduction in operating costs

Timescales

0-3 years 3 years 5 years 6 years

Low hanging fruit Simple Primary Medium to Large Primary Wings & Fuselage

- interiors ribs rear pressure bulkhead complete fuselage

- secondary structures stringers tail sector wings

- fuel pipes floor beams complex and thick sections engines general aviation components composite pylons

Philosophy

Background Objectives Scope Constraints Assumptions Resources Deliverables Output Value

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Year A320 A330-A340 A340-600 A380 A400M Total

2007 371 71 10 1 0 453

2008 389 77 12 8 1 487

2009 414 87 10 30 12 553

2010 414 89 10 50 19 582

Year A350 A32X

2014 3 0 2015 65 (140) 4 2016 100 (140) 80 (150) 2017 110 (140) 370 (360) 2018 130 (140) 460 (480) Year B787 Y1 2007 0 2008 7 2009 49 2010 96 2011 148 2012 180 2013 200 2014 200 1 2015 200 65 2016 225 180 2017 200 260 2018 200 450

FORECAST DELIVER FOR NEW AIRCRAFT

A350 & A32X (NEW SINGLE AISLE)

BOEING – B787 & Y1 (NEW SINGLE AISLE)

The above are aircraft delivery dates, components generally enter the supply chain 2-3 years before delivery of the first aircraft.

Both Airbus and Boeing estimate aircraft demand to be about 1000 large passenger aircraft from 2009. However, when we add forecast build numbers, the total is ~1270 aircraft/year (from 2010). Passenger travel is growing at around 6% per year. It therefore seems likely that the “1000” number is a serious underestimate.

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4. CARBON FIBRE

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Estimated Carbon Fibre Demand (Tonnes)

2006-2020

Confirmed Scenario Forecast Scenario Aluminium Model 2006 2010 2020 2020 2020 Civil Aviation Existing aircraft (A320, B777 etc) B747 Replacement B777 Replacement A380 A350 B787

New B737 and A32X

3,700 200 - 100 - 5,200 2,000 - 3,000 - 3,400 2,000 2,700 6,000 15,000 2,000 2,600 6,000 2,200 8,500 6,000 15,000 Military

Fighters, transport, helicopters 900 1,250 1,800 2,600

Regional Aircraft and Business Jets 230 488 625

1,200

Total 5,130 11,938 31,525 46,100

Wind Energy 3,750 7,500 20,000 60,000

Sports 5,420 6,660 8,330 9,000

Industrial (including gas tanks) 11,660 16,666 25,830 50,000

Other uses (including anti-ballistic & medical) 1,000 1,000 1,000 2,000

References

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