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FSG.ORG
Metroplex Regional Overview
Prepared for:
2
FSG.ORG
Executive Summary – Metroplex
• Metroplex is dominated by two densely populated, largely white urban centers with strong business bases,
Dallas and Fort Worth
. The region is currently experiencing major growth in the Hispanic population, with a
Hispanic college-age population that will increase from 30% to 47%
in the next 20 years
•
Hispanics - the fastest growing population - have the lowest postsecondary completion rate
of any
major demographic group in the region. While higher than Hispanic rates, graduation rates for other ethnicities
are also below state average - 24% for whites and 9% for African-Americans
• Community colleges are the preferred gateway into postsecondary education, enrolling 60% of the students in
the region
. A majority of those students (60%), however , are not ready to enroll in credit bearing
courses and require developmental education,
halving their chances of graduating
with a credential.
Although not as staggering, a significant percent of 4-year students (23%) also require developmental
education and have a smaller chance of graduating with a degree. Given these high developmental education
rates,
improving postsecondary outcomes will require increased regional collaboration
among IHEs and
K12.
Historic dynamics, however, have been more competitive than collaborative
and not focused on
student success
• If the Metroplex does not improve its graduation rates, it will not produce enough graduates to fill jobs in rapidly
growing industries such as telecom and finance. The inability to produce a career-ready workforce will threaten
regional competitiveness and economic development
• The region has numerous assets to leverage towards education reform: a
strong business community, a
tradition of collaboration between 2 and 4-year institutions around student transfer and a growing
conscience about the need to increasingly collaborate to improve student success
. A public-private
partnership can play a critical role in fostering greater collaboration among IHEs and with K12, and in
incentivizing change in institutional practices that support student success
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The Metroplex Population Is Largely White And Concentrated Around
Two Urban Centers, Dallas and Fort Worth
Population Concentrated Around
Two Counties: Tarrant and Dallas
≥1 M residents100K≥x>1 M <100K
Regional Context
Source: Texas Data Center, 2008 Population Projections, Migration Scenario 0.5; FSG analysis
47%
55%
4%
100%
Texas
24.3 M
11%
37%
27%
13%
5%
6.6 M
Metroplex
Metroplex Is Majority White and Less
Hispanic than Texas as a Whole
Cooke
Grayson
Fannin
Wise
Denton
Collin
Hunt
Palo Pinto Parker
Tarrant
Dallas
Kaufman
Navarro
Ellis
Johnson
Hood
Erath
Somervell
Rockwall
The region contains ~27% of the state population
Fort Worth Dallas
Populati
on by
Ethnicity, 2010
(in thousands)
Other
African-
American
Hispanic
White
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The Region Will See Significant Growth in the College-Age Population,
Fueled Almost Entirely by the Hispanic Population
The Demographics of the
College-Age Population Will Shift Hispanic
5,111
19,526
201,829
-21,294
The Hispanic Population Will Add
Over 200,000 College-Age Residents
Regional Context
Source: Texas Data Center, 2008 Population Projections, Migration Scenario 0.5; FSG analysis
Growth i
n Num
be
r of Metr
opl
ex
Resi
dents Ages 18-24, 2010-30
49%
34%
30%
100%
2030
0.8 M
6%
13%
47%
2010
0.6 M
5%
16%
Other
African-
American
Hispanic
White
Approximately 25% of the total post-secondary student population in the
state is enrolled in the Metroplex
White
Hispanic
African-American
Other
Student Popul
ati
on, Ages 18-24
by Ethnicity
(in thousands)
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Notes: (1) Median Household Income by Ethnicity calculated using the median household income per county and weighting by 2008 county population, (2) Federal poverty level for a 3 person household was $17,600 for 2008
Source: 2008 American Community Survey; FSG analysis
The Metroplex Median Income Mirrors the Broader State Disparity
in Incomes Between White and Minority Households
Federal Poverty Level,
2008, 3-person household
Median Household Incomes by Ethnicity
(in thousands), 2008
1,2$30
$20
$10
$60
$50
$40
$5
$15
$25
$35
$45
$55
$65
$18
Texas
$35
$37
$0
$61
Metroplex
$38
$40
$63
African-American
Hispanic
White
Regional Context
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The Recession Has Dampened Growth, but Job Sectors that Are
Rebounding Are the Ones that Require Higher Education Degrees
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington MSA data), FSG analysis
Employment Change from 2005 to 2010
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Future Job Growth Will Mostly Occur in Fields Requiring a Higher
Education Degree or Credential
Regional Context
Source: Texas Workforce Commission as reported in the THECB’s 2010 Regional Plan for Texas Higher Education
Computer Software Engineers
35.1
25.4
9.7
Registered Nurses55.1
41.2
14.0
Middle & Secondary Teachers57.2
41.1
Geological & Petroleum Techns0.9
0.6
9.6
6.4
3.3
Network Systems & Data Communications Analysts0.3
Physician Assistants10.0
6.5
3.6
Accountants & Auditors Veterinarians0.5
1.1
1.6
0.5
Special Ed Teachers1.1
1.6
37.3
29.5
7.8
16.1
Kindergarten & Elementary Teachers56.6
38.7
17.9
2006 Existing Jobs
2016 Additional Jobs created
Occupations Adding the Most New Jobs or Growing the Fastest, 2006-2016,
Metroplex (in thousands)
“Right now if you happen to have an accounting background, companies are hiring like crazy, but
overall there’s a concern with the base of people applying for jobs and how qualified they are.”
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The Metroplex Is Challenged by Low Graduation Rates for
Postsecondary Students, Particularly for Hispanics
Note: (1) nindicates the size of the 7th grade cohort for each ethnicity, (2) HE enrollment includes 5.7% of the 7th grade cohort that did not graduate from
public high school. Source: Texas Higher Education Data, Regional Data for Seventh Grade Cohort and High School to College
Education Landscape
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Hispanic
(n=15,295)
7%
30%
56%
African-American
(n=13,005)
9%
45%
63%
White (n=42,506)
124%
59%
72%
Graduation Rates Slightly Below Average for
Whites and African-Americans and Significantly
Below Average for Hispanics
HE Graduate
Enrolled in HE
2HS Graduate
Texas Average
FY 1998 7th Grade C
ohort Tracked
through FY 2009 Hi
gher Educati
on
Hispanics are the fastest growing student population and the ones
furthest below state averages
Total TX
HE
Graduate
17%
Total
Enrolled
in TX HE
50%
Total HS
Graduate
67%
0%
30%
10%
40%
20%
50%
70%
60%
80%
Total Metroplex Cohort Achievement
Slightly Below State Average Across
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Only One University and Three Community Colleges Have Better
Than State Average Graduation Rates
Education Landscape
25%
27%
28%
28%
29%
30%
33%
34%
37%
46%
51%
54%
55%
56%
56%
56%
71%
Tarrant County College District
3Dallas Community College District
2Regional Average
Weatherford College
Navarro College
Texas Average
North Central Texas College
Collin County Community College District
Grayson County College
Univ. of North Texas At Dallas
Tarleton State University
Texas A&M University-commerce
Texas Woman’s University
U. of Texas At Arlington
Texas Average
Regional Average
University of North Texas
U. of Texas At Dallas
N/A
19,634
20%
27,427
26%
1,696
63%
20,642
35%
7,251
40%
5,349
29%
7,154
15%
79,153
29%
4,712
14%
24,517
23%
9,037
20%
9,124
35%
5,370
13%
69,012
52%
52,349
36%
174,121
438%
Fall ‘09 Total UG
Enroll.
% Hispanic or
African-American
Four-year Institutions
(6-year Graduation Rates)
Two
‐
year
Institutions
(6‐year Graduation Rates)
Notes: (1) University is new, started in 2000, and does not report graduation rate, (2) Includes seven of nine colleges: Brookhaven, Cedar, Eastfield, El Centro, Mountain View, North Lake, Richland, (3) Includes five campuses: Northeast, Northwest, South, Southeast, Trinity River (4) Data from THECB for Fall enrollment – credit students
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Community Colleges Are a Preferred Gateway for Most Ethnicities
and Grew at a Faster Rate then 4-Year Institutions
Note: (1) Enrollment for Metroplex residents Source: THECB and Institutional Data
Thousands of Students
180
160
140
62
21
15
13
36
102
30
87
2000
12
174
2009
40
60
80
20
0
100
120
140
Thousands of Students
120
100
160
180
20
40
60
80
0
2009
115
20
84
15
15
13
9
65
2000
7
56
African-American
Hispanic
White
Other
Two-Year College
Enrollment by Ethnicity
1Four-Year College
Enrollment by Ethnicity
1Education Landscape
Total White enrollment grew the most, but annual Hispanic enrollment grew 3
times as fast in two-year colleges, and 4 times as fast in four-year colleges
CAGR
4%
12%
8%
6%
CAGR
2%
8%
6%
5%
6%
4%
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60% of Metroplex High School Graduates Who Enroll in College Stay
within the Region, Which Underscores the Need for a Regional Approach
32% of continuing students also stay within their county
Source: Texas Higher Education Data; FSG analysis
% of Students Attending PSE Who Stay Within Their Home County
Education Landscape
Cooke
53%
Grayson
59%
Fannin
Wise
Denton
11%
Collin
49%
Hunt
16%
Palo Pinto
Parker
49%
Tarrant
54%
Dallas
20%
Kaufman
Navarro
66%
Ellis
Johnson
Hood
Erath
43%
Somervell
Rockwall
2-year public institution (not all campuses of DCCCD and Tarrant shown)
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49% of High School Graduates Do Not Go Directly Into College, Which
Translates Into a Low Probability of Graduating College
Challenges
Students enrolling in postsecondary education immediately after graduating high
school are 14 times more likely to complete a degree than those who did not
High school graduates in this box include both those that attended and never attended a postsecondary institution
Enrolled Immediately (n=80,512)
Did Not Enroll Immediately (n=82,826)
163,338
51%
49%
3%
41%
Probability of Completing
Higher Education in 6 Years
Status of Postsecondary Enrollment After
Graduating High School
1Note: (1) ‘n’ refers to total number of students for that status of enrollment after graduating from high school
Source: THECB data on public high school graduates who earned a degree or certificate in a two-year or four-year institution within six years of high school graduation, for FY 2001, 2002, & 2003
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Furthermore, Almost Half (45%) of Students Enrolling in PSE Are
Not Academically Ready and Require Developmental Education
12,759
With Dev Ed
No Dev Ed
40%
60%
20%
41%
Two- Year College
Percent of Students Who Take Dev Ed
Fall 2003 Cohort
Four-Year College
Percent of Students Who Take Dev Ed
Fall 2003 Cohort
9,246
With Dev Ed
No Dev Ed
77%
23%
40%
60%
•
Graduation rate for African-Americans
taking dev ed is especially low – 13%,
while for others it is 24%
Most students who need developmental education start in community colleges,
but their chances f graduating college are half that of college-ready students
Source: THECB and Institutional Data, FSG analysis
Challenges
Probability of achieving a postsecondary degree within 6 years Probability of achieving a postsecondary degree within 6 years14
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To Improve Student Success Rates, Metroplex Must Address the Hispanic
Shift And A Fragmented Education System More Used to Compete than
Collaborate
Challenges
Source: THECB and Institutional Data, FSG analysis and interviews
Demographic shift to
largely Hispanic
student population
•
Hispanic Shift:
Hispanic college-age population growing from 30% to 47%
•
Low Achievement of Hispanic Students
: This population has lower academic
achievement due to a number of factors such as having to work to pay for college,
being the first in a family to attend college, and not having adequate English
language skills
Challenges
Description
Fragmented systems
leads to lack of student
engagement,
particularly in CCs
Dynamics of the region
are more competitive
than collaborative
•
Independent, Competitive Regional Environment:
Institutions are more
independent and competitive and have not take a regional approach to addressing
challenges, partly due to having two urban centers
•
Incentives Do Not Prioritize Student Success:
3 of the 7 TRIPS schools are in the
Metroplex, where becoming a Tier 1 research university is the highest priority
•
Students Not Going Directly to College:
45% of high school graduates do not
attend college immediately and have a 3% graduation rate after 6 years
•
“Swirling”:
In the urban centers of Dallas and Fort Worth, postsecondary students
often take courses at different institutions to fit work schedules, but this decreases
student engagement
•
Low Graduation Rates for Community Colleges:
As a result, graduation rates
are low, esp. for community colleges (56% for four-years, 28% for two-years)
• “There is pressure on four-year institutions to raise the academic profile of the institution, so whenever a spare dollar is available it goes to research and not to student services”– IHE Stakeholder
• “When the legislature gives money to IHEs, they usually are earmarked for research or STEM, but not student services”– IHE Stakeholder
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Strong Pipeline from
Two-Year to Four-Two-Year
Institutions
The Metroplex, However, Has Unique Assets to Build on As It Moves to
Address These Challenges
Regional Assets and Opportunities
Increasing Collaboration to
Improve Student Success
Strong Business
Community
• 69% of enrolled undergraduates at four-year universities
transferred from two-year colleges
• 54% of transfer students have earned over 30 semester credit
hours in community college (nearly a quarter of hours
required for a bachelor’s degree)
• 6
thlargest metro economy in the U.S.
• Greatest concentration of Fortune 500 Companies in the state
• 25 billionaires in Dallas-Fort Worth
• Universities and two-year colleges increasing level of
partnership to promote student success (e.g., through
articulation and reverse transfer agreements)
• Emergence of regional student success initiatives involving
multiple stakeholders (e.g., Dallas Regional Chamber
Education Initiative and UNT at Dallas’ collaborative)
Source: FSG analysis and interviews
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Metroplex Is an Economic Powerhouse but the Business
Community Has Been Slow to Engage on Education Issues
BusinessCommunity
• Metroplex is the 6
thlargest metro economy in
the U.S.
‒
2008 GDP was $380B
1• 24 Fortune 500 companies headquartered in
the Dallas-Fort Worth area
‒
Examples include Exxon Mobile, AT&T,
Burlington Northern Santa Fe, Dean
Foods, and Texas Instruments
• A fast-growing electronics and
telecommunications presence
‒
Located along Telecom corridor, and
dubbed “Silicon Prairie,”
‒
Companies include Dell Services,
Ericsson, HP, Verizon, among others
• 25 billionaires in Dallas-Fort Worth
“There is no commitment from the private
sector…they are not serving on advisory
committees to help. We provide a skilled labor
force, abatement, and TIFF, and then they don’t
support you and say you’re not doing a good
job.”
–IHE StakeholderNote: (1) Based on most recently available data from the U.S. Department of Commerce Source: FSG interviews, Forbes 400 List
Dallas-Fort Worth Has One of the Most
Vibrant and Wealthy Economies in Texas
Business Community Has Not Played a
Significant Role in Higher Education
•
Perceived lack of concern and investment
in supporting education and workforce
development
“There’s a concern from businesses about
building a pipeline, especially with the number
of people going into math, science, or computer
technology…The business community is now
focusing on economic development and
education is part of it.”
– Dallas Education Leader• However, the business community is
beginning to engage on this issue
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The intertwined systems afford great impetus and opportunity for closer collaboration
between two-year and four-year colleges
Universities Rely On Community Colleges to Provide Lower
Division Education and a Strong Pipeline of Students
Four-Year Institutions
Regional Assets and Opportunities
66%
69%
100%
TX Total
34%
Metroplex Total
31%
First-
Time College Students
Transfers
Undergraduates at Universities Receive More Transfer Students Than the Texas
Average, and Students Come with More Credit Hours
1Note: (1) Universities typically require 120 hours min. to graduate with a Bachelor’s, while two-year IHEs typically require 60 hours min. for an Associates degree Source: THECB Accountability System
54%
44%
% Transferring with 30+ Credit Hours or ~25% of Hours Required for a BA
% Transferring with 30+ Credit Hours or ~25% of Hours Required for a BA
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University and Community
College Partnerships
Metroplex Is Beginning to Launch Large Scale Collaboration
Efforts
Source: FSG interviews, Dallas Regional Chamber Strategic Plan,
• Easing the transfer process for
students by establishing
articulation agreements 2+2
programs, and dual enrollment
programs (e.g., Eagle Bound
Program between UNT and
DCCCD)
• RN to BSN program allows
nurses to earn a Bachelor’s
degree through UT Arlington’s
partnership with a consortium of
North Texas schools
• Encouraging stronger transfer
partnerships with reverse
transfer agreements (e.g.,
between University of Texas at
Arlington and DCCCD)
Regional Assets and Opportunities
Dallas Regional Chamber
Education Initiative
• Education has become a
strategic priority to drive
economic development
• Established goals to improve
higher education outcomes
‒
Increase % of Dallas ISD
students who are college and
career ready
‒
Increase % of Dallas residents
with advanced degrees
• Taking regional partnership
approach
‒
Engaging other education
actors such as nonprofits,
foundations, districts, and
IHEs, to encourage alignment
and reduce duplication
UNT at Dallas
Collaborative
• Convened ISDs, universities,
2-year colleges, private colleges to
discuss improve college
readiness standards; convening
was well-received
• Working committee in process of
developing preliminary goals for
a collaboration of actors, and a
proposed structure
Coordination is moving from individual agreements between colleges to
emerging regional collaboration between businesses, IHEs, ISDs, and nonprofits
Collaboration, Success
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Source: FSG interviews
A Number of Specific Solutions Are Being Implemented Across
the Region to Increase Postsecondary Student Success
Initiative
Parties Involved
Description
University
College
University of
Texas at Arlington
One-stop center for freshmen, focused on supporting students to successfully
transition to college. Programs and services offered include:
•Mentorship of faculty and peer academic leaders
•Counseling services
•Freshman seminar that teaches academic self-management and study skills
Partnership with
CC on Transfers
University of
Texas at Arlington
Through partnership, UT-Arlington sends counselors to CCs to prepare students
who desire to transfer; also has reverse articulation agreements
Rising Star
Scholarship
Program
Dallas County
Community
College District
Foundation
Rising Star provides academic support services and up to $4,000 for tuition and
books over a three year period for students with financial need attending any of the
DCCCD colleges
College
Counseling
Dallas ISDs,
Education is
Freedom
Education is Freedom provides college access services to 20 of 23 ISDs in Dallas;
also partners with colleges to provide scholarships to students in their program
College-Readiness and
Academic
Success Unit
UNT-Dallas (with
assistance from
AT&T Foundation)
Initiative by UNT-Dallas to tackle college readiness issues and promote higher
educational standards in the region. Activities include:
•Working with school districts, civic groups, and other organizations to promote
higher educational standards in area schools
•Providing informational presentations
•Increasing the campus’ Hispanic population to become an HSI
Male Leadership
Initiative
UNT-Dallas
Initiative at UNT to create a college-going culture among the male population and
tackle low male enrollment at UNT Dallas (current enrollment is 70% female, 30%
male)
Collaboration, Success
Appendix
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A Public Private Partnership Could Help the Metroplex Build On Its
Assets, Address Critical Gaps, and Drive Student Success
Institutional
Change
Institutional
Change
Regional Assets and Opportunities
K-12 and PSE
Alignment
K-12 and PSE
Alignment
Collaboration
with
Business
Collaboration
with
Business
Source: FSG analysis and interviews
• Foster greater
academic alignment between K-12 and PSE
‒
Dedicate resources for redesigning gateway and dev ed courses
• Encourage a culture of
going to college immediately after high school
• Encourage four-year institutions to deepen partnerships with community colleges and
strengthen pipeline of transfer students
(e.g., encouraging students to transfer with AA)
• Emphasize
regional approaches
that cut across entire Metroplex
•
Incentivize institutions to prioritize student success
‒
Provide professional development to educate the entire staff and faculty on how to
address students and their environment
‒
Change incentives for four-year institutions so that student success is a competing
priority with becoming a top-tier institution (e.g., offer matching grants to increase
success)
•
Incorporate wrap-around services into the infrastructure of the institutions
(e.g.,
mandatory student success course)
• Partner to
invest in workforce pipeline
(e.g., fill funding gap to pilot initiatives and scale
efforts that are working to improve student success)
•
Engage businesses in the higher education system
‒
Ask executives to serve on advisory committees for colleges, P-16 councils, regional
initiatives
‒
Actively engage regional chambers of commerce to prioritize building a strong workforce
pipeline and helping to build an infrastructure to measure progress (e.g., developing
shared metrics, collecting data)
ILLUSTRATIVE
Preliminary Opportunities for the Region
21
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22
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FSG Interviewed 15 Stakeholders in the Metroplex Region
Name Title Organization Category
Interview with IHEs
Dr. Pam Haws
Associate Vice President and Director of Institutional Research Planning and Effectiveness
University of Texas at Arlington Institutional researcher (4-year institution) Michael Moore Senior Vice Provost University of Texas at Arlington 4-year institution Carey Israel District President Collin County Community College District 4-year institution
Dr. Brenda Kihl Vice President of Academic & Institutional Effectiveness Collin County Community College District Institutional researcher (2-year institution) Dr. Wright Lassiter Chancellor Dallas County Community College District 2-year institution Dr. Teri Walker District Director of Institutional Research Dallas County Community College District 2-year institution Dr. Andrew Jones Executive Vice Chancellor of Education Affairs Dallas County Community College District 2-year institution Betheny Reid Associate Vice Chancellor, Development; President DCCCD Foundation Dallas County Community College District 2-year institution Dr. Mary Brumbach Executive District Director of Strategic Funding, Development Office/Foundation Dallas County Community College District 2-year institution
Dr. John Price President UNT at Dallas 4-year institution
Dr. Lee Jackson President UNT Dallas 4-year institution
Interviews with Other Stakeholders
Marcia Page President & CEO Education is Freedom Nonprofit
Adam Powell Manager of Student and Parent Services Education is Freedom Nonprofit Ilyssa Schlereth VP of Evaluation and Accountability Education is Freedom Nonprofit Patti Clapp Vice President, Education Dallas Regional Chamber Private Sector
