Annual market update
2010
Global
Wind
RepoRt
2010 was a tough year for our industry, and although cumulative market growth was still a healthy 24.1 %, the annual market decreased for the first time in about two decades. The medium term consequences of the financial crisis and the economic slowdown finally took their toll, and very low orders in OECD countries at the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009 made themselves felt in the 2010 installation totals, particularly in the United States. Having said that, 38.3 GW of new wind power capacity was added around the world last year, and for the first time the majority of that new capacity was in developing countries and emerging economies; driven mainly by the booming wind sectors in China and India, but also with strong growth in Latin America, where we believe we are on the cusp of the wind energy boom in that wind resource-rich region which we have been waiting for and expecting for so many years.
We look forward to a rebound in the global market and for the period out to 2015. There has been a massive intake of orders by major manufacturers in 2010 which will manifest itself in the 2011 and 2012 installation figures, driven by continued strong growth in Asia, a recovery in North America, and steady growth in Europe. Also, new markets in Latin America and Africa will begin to seriously flex their muscles for the first time.
Public finance continues to play a stronger role in the financing of wind projects, and we see that as a permanent shift in the financing pattern for our industry. While we are hoping for a strong return of the commercial banks to the sector, that will no doubt take a lot longer than was thought last year. Fortunately, public finance institutions seem to have taken up the slack with some gusto, well beyond the stimulus funds put forward during the worst of the recession in 2009.
We are still waiting for a resolution to the global debate on climate change and we are still waiting for any signs of a clear pathway towards a global price on carbon. If the pace of the international climate negotiations during 2010 is any indication, we are going to have to continue to wait for some time. Hopes are higher for COP17 in Durban this year than they were for Cancun, but few observers expect final resolutions to the fundamental unresolved issues. We expect that by the time this report is printed global installed capacity will have reached 200 GW. We estimate that this will double again within three to four years, keeping open the option to reach GWEC’s aspirational goal of 1,000 GW of installed capacity by 2020.
This is the sixth annual report on the status of the global wind industry by the Global Wind Energy Council. It provides a comprehensive snapshot of this global industry, now present in about 80 countries. The data and country profiles for this report have been collected through GWEC’s member associations and companies around the world, as well as from other analysts and government contacts. We thank our contributors and look forward to continued close cooperation for future editions.
April 2011
Steve Sawyer
Secretary General
Global Wind Energy Council
Klaus Rave
Chairman
Global Wind Energy Council
Wind power in emerging economies. . . . 5
The global status of wind power in 2010 . . . 10
Market forecast for 2011-2015 . . . 18
Country reports Australia . . . 22 brazil . . . 24 Canada . . . 26 Chile. . . . 28 PR China . . . 30 Egypt . . . 34 European Union. . . . 36 EU offshore . . . 38 France . . . . 40 Germany . . . 42 India . . . . 44 Iran . . . 46 Mexico . . . 48 Morocco. . . . 50 New Zealand . . . 52 Portugal . . . . 54 Romania. . . . 56 South Korea. . . . 58 Spain . . . 60 Turkey . . . . 62 United Kingdom . . . 64 United States . . . . 66 About GWEC . . . 68
table of ContentS
Wind power in emerging
economies
In 2010, for the first time ever, more new wind power capacity was installed in developing countries and emerging economies than in the traditional wind markets of the OECD. This puts an end to the assertion that wind power is a premium technology only for rich countries which cannot be deployed at scale in other markets. It is also testament to the inherent attractiveness of wind power for countries striving to diversify their energy mix, improve their security of supply in the face of rapidly growing demand, and relieve national budgets of the burden of expensive fossil fuel imports at volatile prices. Environmental factors such as improving air quality and public health, and carbon reductions to fight against climate change also play an important role in many of these new markets.
There is also a noticeable shift in attitudes towards wind power in many countries. While the technology would have been dismissed as too expensive by many developing country energy planners just a few years ago, the continuing success of the technology in an ever widening group of countries has changed that attitude to one of dramatically increased knowledge about wind generation and the role that it can play in a country’s power mix.
The growth of wind power outside of the OECD has been
primarily driven by the continuing boom in China, which is
now the country with the largest installed wind power capacity in the world. The Chinese government has a clear commitment to developing the country’s massive wind resource, partly driven by the need for increasing its power generation capacity to fuel a growing economy and to spur rural economic development. Furthermore, the Chinese government is committed to slowing down the country’s increasing greenhouse gas emissions and reducing air pollution. This political commitment was underpinned by favourable policies to boost wind power development, and this has led to exceptional growth in this sector. After four years of doubling its installed wind capacity from 2006-2009, a record capacity of 18.9 GW was added to the Chinese wind fleet in 2010, taking the total up to 42.3 GW. Wind power now represents nearly a fifth of all yearly net power generation capacity additions in China, nearly on par with hydro.
beyond wind power’s environmental and energy security benefits, the Chinese government also recognises the
economic opportunity of building a strong domestic
manufacturing base. In 2009, out of the world’s top ten wind turbine manufacturers, three were Chinese, and annual domestic production capacity is now at least 30 GW. Chinese manufacturers are increasingly looking at international markets, and it is expected that Chinese wind turbines will soon be fully competing in the global market place. (For more information on China, see p. 30)
A similar picture is emerging in india, albeit on a smaller scale. A rapidly growing economy and expanding population create a growing demand for power, and supply struggles to keep up with demand. Electricity shortages are common, and a significant part of the population has no access to
electricity at all. In order to address this problem, the Indian government created a target of an additional 78.7 GW of generation capacity from 2007-2012, 10.5 GW of which will be new wind generation capacity. The Indian Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) estimates that there is a potential of 48.5 GW of wind power development, but industry experts estimate that a minimum of 100 GW could be realised in India. At the end of 2010, India had 13.1 GW of installed wind capacity, with 40% operating in the southern state of Tamil Nadu.
Like in China, India’s wind power development has spurred domestic manufacturing, and the Indian company Suzlon is now a global leader. 17 companies now manufacture wind power equipment in India, with a production capacity of 7.5 GW per year. Thanks to new market entrants, it is expected that this will rise to 17 GW or more by 2013, according to the World Institute for Sustainable Energy (WISE). Wind turbines and turbine blades made in India have been exported to the USA, Europe, Australia, China and brazil. (See p. 44 for more information on India)
While wind markets in the rest of asia are only at the early stages of development, there is considerable potential and some promising signs. Across the region there are at least a dozen vibrant and rapidly growing economies in which wind energy could play a significant role, and there is increasing interest in the technology from policymakers and utility executives.
While wind energy in South Korea is still in its infancy, the Korean government recently introduced a Renewable
Portfolio Standard (RPS) scheme and set an ambitious target of developing 2.5 GW of offshore wind power by 2020. Several Korean heavy manufacturers such as Samsung, Hyundai and Daewoo have started to include wind turbines in their portfolio in order to compete both domestically and in the international marketplace. In 2010, installed wind capacity increased by 30 MW to reach 379 MW.
In the philippines, 33 MW of wind power are currently
operating, but the technical potential is estimated at around 55 GW, over three times the country’s current total installed generation capacity, according to UNEP’s Solar and Wind Resource Assessment (SWERA). The government has set a target for 40% of its electricity to be generated by renewable sources by 2020, up from the current 33%. both the
Philippines government and the Asian Development bank (ADb) have set up funds to help with this process.
Vietnam has 18 MW of operating wind power capacity, but strong winds could support 642 GW of wind energy
development, according to SWERA. In addition, Vietnam has a fast-growing economy and a growing demand for electric power. The Vietnamese government is aiming for renewable power to provide about 5% of the nation’s electricity by 2020. Investor interest in the Vietnamese wind market is considerable, and various wind power projects are reported to be in the pipeline.
thailand’s growing affluence has led to a startling rise in per capita electricity consumption, which has grown by almost 25% in the past five years. An estimated 30.2 GW of new generation capacity will be needed by 2021. The government has announced a target of increasing the share of renewable energy from 6.4% in 2008 to 20% in 2022, with an 800 MW target for wind capacity. According to SWERA, Thailand’s technical wind resource could support the development of 190 GW of wind power.
Prosperous taiwan imports 98% of its fuel needs, and has
set a target for renewables to meet 10% of its electricity by 2010, up from 5.8% currently. Wind power is expected to meet 80% of that, and a feed-in tariff was introduced in 2009. During 2010, Taiwan installed 83 MW of new wind power, bringing its total to 519 MW.
In pakistan, the far-reaching implications of the flood disaster of 2010 on infrastructure in general, and the power infrastructure specifically, have worsened the supply situation and led to acute power shortage. Most of the country’s power needs to date are met by fossil fuels. To support the addition of renewable capacity, the Asian Development bank set up a 510 million USD financing facility in 2006, and a feed-in tariff was introduced. In addition, USAID is co-funding a public-private partnership to develop a 150 MW wind project in the Gharo Corridor. The potential for wind power is estimated to be around 350 GW, according to both the Pakistani government and SWERA.
Other countries in the region have also set ambitious targets for wind power development, but this has not always been followed up by the introduction of effective policy
frameworks. bangladesh, for example, has set a target of
reaching 5% of its electricity to come from renewables by
2015; Mongolia plans to increase its share of renewable
electricity from the current 3% to 20–25% by 2020;
Sri lanka wants to go from the current 5% to reach 10% by
2017 and 14.1% by 2022, and indonesia is planning to build
255 MW of wind capacity by 2025.1
latin america
Latin America, a region of great cultural and economic diversity, has some of the world’s best wind resources. Home to many growing economies with increasing electricity demand, this part of the world is considered prime territory for the deployment of wind power.
While beginnings have been modest, there are now concrete signs that the region is on the verge of developing a
substantial wind power industry to complement its rich hydro and biomass (and potential solar) resources, most notably in brazil and Mexico. The total installed capacity in the region grew by 50% during 2010, and more than 2,000 MW of wind power are now operating across the region.
Wind power is making the most progress in brazil, the
region’s largest economy. This country has many areas with tremendous potential for wind energy, combined with a
growing electricity demand and solid industrial and grid infrastructure. As a country with a large share of hydro power, this combination forms an ideal basis for large-scale wind power development. At the end of 2010, 930 MW of wind capacity were operating in brazil, with a project pipeline of more than 4,000 MW up to 2013, most of which were contracted in the 2009 and 2010 auctions. Two new auctions have already been announced for June 2011. Since the December 2009 auction, seven major international manufacturers have committed to building production facilities in brazil, most of which are already under construction. brazil is set to not only be the largest wind power market in the region, but will also be a major manufacturing hub for the region. (See p. 24 for more information on brazil)
Mexico, too, has an outstanding wind resource, especially in the Oaxaca region, but also in baja California as well as in other regions. Mexico’s installed wind capacity has increased more than 6-fold since the end of 2008, and 316 MW of new capacity were added in 2010 to reach a total of 519 MW. (See p. 48 for more information on Mexico)
argentina’s wind resources are unrivalled in the region, and are estimated to be sufficient to supply Latin America’s entire electrical demand several times over. However, to date, only a tiny amount of the potential has been developed with just 60 MW of wind power operating, up from 33.5 MW at the end of 2009.
Another promising market is Chile, which had nearly 172 MW
of wind power in operation at the end of 2010. A number of large wind power projects are under development, and they are desperately needed to help alleviate chronic gas shortages.
Uruguay is also starting to develop its wind resource and added 23 MW of new capacity for a total of 43 MW at the end of 2010. The country has a target of reaching 500 MW by 2015.
Other wind power markets in the region include Costa Rica,
which had about 123 MW of wind power at the end of 2010,
and a new 50 MW project in the pipeline; peru, which had
nearly 150 MW under construction at the end of 2010;
Venezuela with 100 MW currently under construction, 1 REN21 Global Status Report 2010
scheduled to come on line in 2011; Jamaica, with 24 MW
installed capacity; nicaragua, which installed 40 MW of
wind power in 2009; and Honduras, with 102 MW under
development, due to come online in 2012.
Unfortunately, however, most of these early markets suffer from the lack of a clear, long-term policy framework for wind power development which continues to hamper market development.
africa
Wind energy could bring many benefits to Africa due to its scalability, which means that it can play a key role in both decentralized and centralized systems. Also, the fact that wind power uses no water to generate electricity is good news for this water-stressed continent.
About a quarter of the world’s population has no access to electricity, and the problem is especially acute in peri-urban and rural areas in Sub-Saharan Africa. In many African countries, the electricity that is available is likely to be generated from diesel generators or other small-scale plant. These very often use expensive imported fuel and many countries spend a considerable share of their scarce foreign exchange reserves on energy imports.
Large-scale power production in Africa, where it exists, is mostly by large hydro (as found in Egypt) or coal-based generation (as in South Africa).
Africa’s wind resource is best around the coasts and in the eastern highlands, but it is only in Mediterranean North Africa that wind power has been developed at scale. 97% of the continent’s total wind installations are located in Egypt (550 MW), Morocco (286 MW) and Tunisia (114 MW).
egypt has a target of producing 20% of its electric power from renewable sources by 2020, and this includes a 12% contribution from wind energy, which translates into more than 7,200 MW of grid-connected wind power. Most of Egypt’s wind development to date is in the Zafarana district on the Red Sea coast, but there are also plans to construct a 250 MW plant at Gabal el-Zeit, and a recent tender has called for proposals to build a further 500 MW in the Gulf of
Suez. A second tender for the same amount is expected for July 2011. (For more information on Egypt see p. 34)
Morocco has excellent wind resources along the coastline, as well as inland near the Atlas Mountains. The Moroccan government has set a target of raising the contribution of renewable energy to 20% of national electricity consumption (up from 7.9%) by 2020. Wind power is poised to play a key role with a targeted 2,000 MW of capacity, up from the existing 286 MW at the end of 2010. Half of this will be installed by the government owned utility ONE, with the other half coming from industrial players producing their own wind power. (See p. 50 for more information on Morocco)
South africa’s electricity system, which is primarily based on coal, suffers from low reserve margins, and is barely adequate to meet demand. The state utility Eskom estimates that the country needs to construct 40 GW of new generating capacity by 2025. South Africa is ideally suited for wind power development, given its abundant wind resources. While currently only one commercial-scale wind farm is in operation, the 8 MW Darling wind farm, the South African Wind Energy Association (SAWEA) estimates that with the right policy framework, wind power could provide as much as 20% of the country’s energy demand by 2025, translating into 30,000 MW of installed wind capacity. According to SAWEA, 7,000 MW of this wind capacity is already at various stages of development, waiting for confirmation of grid connection and a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA). Interestingly there have recently been developments in East Africa, with a 300 MW project under construction in
Kenya and other wind projects well advanced in ethiopia
and tanzania. These early projects will make a substantial contribution to the total generating capacity in each of these countries and may spur similar large scale developments in other African countries.
Middle east
The Middle East is rich in oil and gas, yet these reserves are unevenly distributed, with some countries major oil exporters and others importers. With increasing prosperity in much of the region, power demand has been growing rapidly.
A number of governments in the Middle East have developed national plans for renewable energy, but current uptake of wind power is in its infancy, with only 92 MW installed in Iran, 8 MW in Israel and 2 MW in Jordan. While less evenly distributed than solar, the region’s wind resource is excellent in some countries such as Iran, Oman, Syria, Saudi Arabia and Jordan.
iran is the only country in the region with any large scale wind power installations. The country currently has two wind farms, with a combined capacity of 92 MW. There are plans for expanding wind capacity to reach 400 MW in the coming years. Preliminary studies conducted by SUNA have shown that Iran has at least 6.5 GW of practical wind power potential. (For more information on Iran see p. 46)
Jordan has a target of achieving 7% of its primary energy demand from renewables by 2015, and 10% by 2020. In 2010 Jordan introduced a Renewable Energy Law which requires the National Electric Power Company to purchase all electricity produced by independent and small-scale renewable plants at full retail price (net metering). Syria’s
target is for renewable energy to make up 4.3% of primary energy demand by 2011, and it has two wind farms (100 MW
and 30 MW) in planning. oman also has considerable wind
power potential, mainly in the South and in the mountains north of Salalah.
Wind power uptake in emerging economies –
a trend for the future?
Given the vast potential for wind power development in Asia, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East, GWEC’s Global Wind Energy Outlook “advanced scenario” forecasts that by 2020, more than 40% of the total global wind power capacity could be installed in these regions, up from 31% at
the end of 2010.1 Given the swing in the 2010 market, this
shift could be even more pronounced. China will continue to drive this development, hosting more than half of the wind power operating outside of the OECD by 2020, but other markets in the rest of Asia, Latin America and Africa are also expected to contribute substantially to the global total. While there are strong economic, supply security and environmental drivers for wind power in developing countries and emerging economies, a key determining factor for realising the vast potential will be the political will of governments to make this happen. Favourable support schemes, financial incentives, adequate grid infrastructure and access to financing are some key conditions required for allowing wind power to thrive in these countries.
1 Global Wind Energy Council: Global Wind Energy Outlook 2010. www.gwec.net/index.php?id=168 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2030 2020 2010 2009 [GW] oeCd
europe oeCd north america
China india oeCd
pacific oeCd non-asia
eastern europe/
eurasia
latin
america africa Middle east
2009 76 39 26 11 5 0.5 0.5 1 0.8 0.1
2010 87 50 41 13 6 0.7 0.9 2 1 0.1
2020 279 279 250 65 48 55 16 37 19 11
2030 515 622 513 161 109 140 87 93 67 34
The expectations for wind power market growth in 2010 were mixed, as the low level of orders seen during the financial crisis worked their way through the system. The results of this were felt much more strongly in 2010 than in the previous year, and the overall annual market shrunk by 0.5% to 38.3 GW, down from 38.8 GW in 2009. The new capacity added in 2010 represents investments worth EUR 49.8 billion (USD 71.8 billion).
The US market installed almost 50% less than in 2009. In the European market, new installed capacity in 2010 was 7.5% down on 2009, despite a 50% growth of the offshore market in countries like the UK, Denmark and belgium, and rapid growth in Eastern Europe, led by Romania, bulgaria and Poland.
Despite the decrease in annual installations, global installed wind power capacity increased by 24.1% during the year, and now stands at 197.0 GW. For most other sectors that have not become accustomed to growth rates of 30% or more, this would represent a major achievement.
The main markets driving growth continue to be Asia and Europe, which installed 21.5 GW and 9.9 GW respectively in 2010. However, emerging markets in Latin America are beginning to take off, led by brazil and Mexico. In cumulative terms, the Latin America and Caribbean market grew by more than 53% during 2010.
For the first time in 2010, more than half of all new wind power was added outside of the traditional markets of Europe and North America. This was mainly driven by the continuing boom in China, which accounted for half the new global wind installations, with 18.9 GW. China now has 44.7 GW of wind power, and has surpassed the US to claim the number one spot in terms of total installed capacity.
The outlook for 2011 is more optimistic, with overall investment in wind power in 2010 up by 31% to reach USD 96 billion (EUR 70.4 billion), according to bloomberg New Energy Finance (bNEF). This investment gives rise to some optimism going forward, as it is likely to translate into actual projects in 2011 and 2012. It is notable that 38% of this total investment was accounted for by China and by large European offshore wind farms.
China leads booming markets in asia
For the third year in a row, Asia was the world’s largest regional market for wind energy, with capacity additions amounting to 21.5 GW.
China was the world’s largest market in 2010, adding a staggering 18.9 GW of new capacity, and slipping past the USA to become the world’s leading wind power country. The Chinese market more than doubled its capacity from 12 GW in 2008 to 25.8 GW in 2009 and added 16.5 MW in 2010 to reach 42.2 GW at the end of 2010.
The growing wind power market in China has encouraged domestic production of wind turbines and components, and the Chinese manufacturing industry is becoming increasingly mature, stretching over the whole supply chain. China has now become the world’s largest producer of wind energy equipment, and components made in China are now starting to not only satisfy domestic demand, but also meet
international needs. Two Chinese companies, Sinovel and Goldwind, were already among the world’s top five turbine manufacturers in 2009, and there are first moves by Chinese manufacturers to enter international markets.
The planning, development and construction for the “Wind base” programme, which aims to build 138 GW of wind capacity in eight Chinese provinces, is well underway. In its twelfth Five-Year Plan, which was passed by the Chinese Parliament in March 2011, the government set a new target of building a total 90 GW of wind energy by 2015.
After a few years of slow growth, the indian wind power
market is now back on track and witnessed significant growth in 2010. It comes in third behind China and the USA in terms of new installed capacity during 2010 at 2,139 MW, taking total capacity up to 13.1 GW. The states with highest wind power concentration are Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh. The country’s energy mix now boasts a share of 10.9% of renewable energy in terms of installed capacity, contributing about 4.13% to the electricity generation mix. Wind power accounts for 70% of this renewable installed capacity. In 2010 the official wind power potential estimates for India were revised upwards from 45 GW to 49.1 GW by the Centre
The global status of wind power
in 2010
1 South Africa, Cape Verde, Israel, Lebanon, Nigeria, Jordan, Kenya 2 Thailand, bangladesh, Indonesia, Sri
Lanka, Philippines, Vietnam 3 bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech
Republic, Estonia, Faroe Islands, Finland, Hungary, Iceland, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Norway, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Switzerland, Ukraine
4 Austria, belgium, bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, UK
5 Colombia, Chile, Cuba * Provisional figures
Please note:
Project decommissioning of 151 MW and rounding affect the final sums
gLoBaL insTaLLed Wind PoWeR caPaciTY (MW )– RegionaL disTRiBuTion
end 2009 new 2010 end 2010
aFRica Egypt 430 120 550
& MiddLe easT Morocco 253 33 286
Tunisia 54 60 114 Iran 92 0 92 Other 1) 37 0 37 total 866 213 1,079 asia China 25,805 18,928 44,733 India 10,926 2,139 13,065 Japan 2,085 221 2,304 Taiwan 436 83 519 South Korea 348 31 379 Philippines 33 0 33 Other 2) 6 48 54 total 39,639 21,450 61,087 euRoPe Germany 25,777 1,493 27,214 Spain 19,160 1,516 20,676 Italy 4,849 948 5,797 France 4,574 1,086 5,660 UK 4,245 962 5,204 Denmark* 3,465 327 3,752 Portugal 3,535 363 3,898 Netherlands 2,215 32 2,237 Sweden 1,560 604 2,163 Ireland 1,310 118 1,428 Turkey* 801 528 1,329 Greece 1,087 123 1,208 Poland 725 382 1,107 Austria 995 16 1,011 belgium 563 350 911 Rest of Europe 3) 1,610 1,070 2,684 total 76,471 9,918 86,279 of which EU-274) 75,090 9,295 84,278
LaTin aMeRica brazil 606 326 931
& caRiBBean Mexico 202 316 519
Chile 168 4 172 Costa Rica 123 0 123 Caribbean 91 8 99 Argentina 34 27 60 Others 5) 83 23 106 total 1,306 703 2,008
noRTh aMeRica USA 35,086 5,115 40,180
Canada 3,319 690 4,009
total 38,405 5,805 44,189
PaciFic Region Australia 1,712 167 1,880
New Zealand 497 9 506
Pacific Islands 12 0 12
total 2,221 176 2,397
World total 158,908 38,265 197,039
for Wind Energy Technology (C-WET). However, the
estimations of various industry associations and wind power producers are more optimistic, citing a potential in the range of 65-100 GW.
Other Asian countries with new capacity additions in 2010
include Japan (221 MW, for a total of 2.3 GW), South Korea
(31 MW for a total of 379 MW) and taiwan (83 MW for a
total of 519 MW).
north america: disappointing USa results
The USA wind energy market installed 5.1 GW in 2010, only about half of the 2009 market. The country now has 40.2 GW of wind power capacity (up from 35.1 GW at the end of 2009), thereby conceding its global leadership to China.
38 of the 50 states now have utility-scale wind installations and 14 of those have more than 1,000 MW installed. Texas remains the leading state with more than 10 GW of total installed capacity and wind power now generates 7.8% of the state’s electricity needs. Iowa is in second place with
3,675 MW, and now receives close to 20% of its electricity from wind power, followed by California, Minnesota and Washington State.
In terms of new capacity added in 2009, Texas again led the pack with 680 MW, followed by Illinois (498 MW), California (455 MW), South Dakota and Minnesota (396 MW each). The American manufacturing sector, meanwhile, appears to view 2010’s slowdown as short-term. New component suppliers continued to enter the wind energy industry last year, and over 400 US manufacturing plants now serve the
ToP 10 cuMuLaTiVe caPaciTY dec 2010
Rest of the world Denmark Canada UK France Italy India Spain Germany USA China Country MW % China 44,733 22.7 USA 40,180 20.4 Germany 27,214 13.8 Spain 20,676 10.5 India 13,065 6.6 Italy 5,797 2.9 France 5,660 2.9 UK 5,204 2.6 Canada 4,009 2.0 Denmark 3,752 1.9
Rest of the world 26,749 13.6
total top 10 170,290 86.4
World total 197,039 100
ToP 10 neW insTaLLed caPaciTY Jan-dec 2010
Rest of the world Sweden Canada Italy UK France Germany Spain India USA China Country MW % China 18,928 49.5 USA 5,115 13.4 India 2,139 5.6 Spain 1,516 4.0 Germany 1,493 3.9 France 1,086 2.8 UK 962 2.5 Italy 948 2.5 Canada 690 1.8 Sweden 604 1.6
Rest of the world 4,785 12.5
total top 10 33,480 87.5
industry. Around half of the wind generation equipment deployed in the USA is now manufactured domestically. In addition, the construction pipeline for wind power is healthy, with 5,600 MW currently under construction. Given such indicators, the industry could finish 2011 well ahead of 2010 numbers.
Canada’s wind power market was also down in 2010 compared to the previous year, but it was still the second best year ever. 690 MW of new wind capacity came online, compared to 950 MW in 2009, taking the total capacity up to more than 4,000 MW.
Ontario leads Canada’s wind energy development with 1.5 GW of installed wind capacity. The province adopted its Green Energy Act in 2009, which introduced a feed-in tariff for wind power, and this is set to substantially boost wind
power development in the province. Other leading wind energy provinces include Quebec (806 MW) and Alberta (663 MW).
european growth driven by eastern europe and
offshore wind
During 2010, 9,918 MW of wind power was installed across Europe, with European Union countries accounting for 9,295 MW of the total. This represents a decrease in the EU’s annual wind power installations of 10% compared to 2009. Of the 9,295 MW installed in the EU, 8,412 MW were installed onshore and 883 offshore. This means that in 2010, the annual onshore market decreased by over 13% compared to last year, while the annual offshore market grew by 51%, and accounted for 9.5% of all capacity additions.
[ MW ] 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 38,265 2010 38,793 2009 26,560 2008 15,245 2006 11,531 2005 8,207 2004 8,133 2003 7,270 2002 3,760 2000 3,440 1999 2,520 1998 1,530 1997 1,280 1996 6,500 2001 19,866 2007 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 0 6,100 1996 7,600 1997 10,200 1998 13,600 1999 17,400 2000 23,900 2001 31,100 2002 39,431 2003 47,620 2004 59,091 2005 74,052 2006 93,820 2007 120,291 2008 158,908 2009 197,039 2010 [ MW ] [ MW ]
Europe North America Asia Latin America Africa & Middle East Pacific
0 2003 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 25,000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
gLoBaL cuMuLaTiVe insTaLLed Wind caPaciTY 1996-2010
gLoBaL annuaL insTaLLed Wind caPaciTY 1996-2010
In terms of annual installations, Spain was the largest market in 2010, installing 1,516 MW, followed by Germany with 1,493 MW. France was the only other country to install over 1 GW (1,086 MW), followed by the UK (962 MW), Italy (948 MW), Sweden (604 MW), Romania (448 MW), Poland (382 MW), Portugal (363 MW) and belgium (350 MW). For the first time, two new EU Member States were among the top ten largest annual markets.
The total wind power capacity installed by the end of 2010 will, in a normal wind year, produce 181 TWh of electricity (up from 163 TWh), meeting 5.3% of overall EU electricity consumption (up from 4.8% in 2009).
Germany continues to lead Europe in terms of total installed capacity, adding 1.5 GW in 2009 for a total of 27.2 GW. As in other developed markets, growth was hampered by the ramifications of the financial crisis.
The leading federal state in Germany in terms of installed capacity is Lower Saxony with 6.7 GW. A number of states now receive 40% or more of their electricity from wind
energy, including Saxony-Anhalt (52%), Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (45%) and Schleswig-Holstein (44%). The contribution of wind energy to total German power consumption is around 6.2%.
Spain led the European league tables for new installed capacity just ahead of Germany, with additions of 1.5 GW of wind power, bringing its total up to 20.7 GW. This
represented the smallest annual wind power since 2003. 2010 was a good year for wind resources, and the country’s wind farms generated 42.7 TWh of electricity, accounting for 16.6% of total Spanish power consumption.
Castile and Leon was again the region that installed the most wind power in 2010 (917 MW, or 60.4% of the new installed capacity), followed by Catalonia with 327 MW and Andalusia with 139- MW. As a result, Castile and Leon continues to lead the country in terms of total wind installations with 4.8 GW, followed by Castile-La Mancha with 3.7 GW and Galicia with
3.3 GW. Five out of Spain’s 17 regions now host 1,000 MW or more of wind power.
italy now has a total installed capacity of 5.8 GW. The regions which added the most new capacity were Sicily (334 MW for a total of 1,449 MW), Calabria (189 MW for 589 MW) and Molise (130 MW totalling 372 MW). The other regions which added new wind power capacity in 2010 were: Apulia, Sardinia, basilicata and Abruzzo. In the North and the Center of Italy, only Liguria installed 2.4 MW in 2010. The Italian wind power sector now employs more than 28,000 people, of which some 10,000 directly.
france’s wind capacity is also growing steadily and has now reached 5.7 GW, up from only 30 MW in 2000. Overall, wind power now covers 1.8% of the country’s electricity demand. The French wind energy sector now employs around 11,000 people, spread over more than 180 companies. The French government set a target to achieve 25 GW of installed wind energy capacity by 2020, including 6 GW of offshore wind.
In the United Kingdom, around 40 new wind farms were
opened in 2010, totalling 962 MW of additional capacity and taking the country’s total installed wind power capacity to 5,204 MW. With 1,341 MW of installed capacity, the UK continues to be the world’s leading offshore wind market. The majority of wind farms in the UK are located in Scotland (2,374 MW), in the North West (1,009 MW) and in Wales
(530 MW). Scotland alone installed a third of all new wind power capacity in 2010 (376 MW).
latin america: new wind capacity in five
countries
The Latin American market seems to be waking up to the opportunity of its enormous wind power potential. While growth in 2010 was still small in absolute terms, with 703 MW installed across the continent, this represented a 50% increase in total installed capacity. In addition, the pipeline for new developments is substantial.
brazil added 326 MW of new capacity, slightly more than in 2009, and is now host to 931 MW of wind power.
brazil’s PROINFA program was initially passed by the brazilian Congress in 2002 in order to stimulate the addition of over 1,100 MW of wind energy capacity, which was later expanded to 1,400 MW. It looks increasingly likely that the full
1,400 MW target will be met. Overall, 40 PROINFA wind farms are now in operation, totalling 900 MW, while a further 13 projects (394.1 MW) are still under construction, and the majority of these are scheduled to be connected to the grid in 2011.
Traditionally dominated by just one turbine manufacturer, Wobben Enercon, several other international players have
now entered the brazilian market, including Vestas, Suzlon, Impsa, GE, Alstom, Gamesa, and Siemens.
Two renewable energy auctions took place in brazil in 2010, contracting more than 2,000 MW worth of new wind power capacity. Together with the 1,800 MW of the 2009 auction and new auctions announced for June 2011, this makes for a very healthy pipeline for the coming years.
In 2010, Mexico’s installed wind capacity more than doubled
for the second year in a row, with 316 MW of new capacity added to the existing 202 MW operating at the end of 2009. The total installed wind power capacity now amounts to 519 MW.
Nearly all the wind projects operating in Mexico are located in Oaxaca (six projects with a capacity of 508 MW), and a further 19 projects are in the pipeline in this region. Other promising regions with good wind potential include baja California and the bay of Campeche in the Gulf of Mexico.
pacific region adds 176 MW
At the end of 2010, 1,880 MW of wind capacity were
installed in australia, an increase of 167 MW from 2009.
There are now 52 operating wind farms in the country, mostly located in South Australia (907 MW) and Victoria (428 MW).
Australia’s expanded Renewable Energy Target (RET) Scheme, which entered into force in January 2010, mandates that 45 TWh or 20% of Australia’s electricity supply will be sourced from renewable energy in 2020. The initial target is 12.5 TWh, and this will be gradually increased until 2020. Following a good year in 2009, the speed of development in
new Zealand dropped with just 8.8 MW of new wind capacity added in 2010, taking the total up to close to 506 MW. Wind energy currently supplies just over 3% of New Zealand’s annual electricity demand.
213 MW installed in africa and the Middle east
In North Africa, the expansion of wind power continues in
Morocco, Egypt and Tunisia. egypt not only saw the largest
addition of new capacity in 2010 (120 MW), bringing the
total up to 550 MW but also continues to lead the region.
Morocco comes in a distant second with a cumulative capacity of 286 MW, 30 MW of which were added in 2010.
tunisia added 60 MW of new capacity in 2010, taking the total up to 114 MW. Other promising countries in the region
include ethiopia, Kenya, tanzania and South africa, where
wind project development is slowly yet firmly underway.
national policies continue to drive wind power
development
2010 was a tough year for most industries, and the wind sector was no exception, with annual capacity additions decreasing for the first time in 20 years. This was primarily a result of low levels of orders during the financial crisis resulting in fewer projects being built in 2010.
The outlook for 2011 is positive, as the global economy is recovering and order books are full again. Global investment in wind power was up by 38% in 2010, and projects will start to materialise from these investments in 2011 and 2012. Emerging markets such as China, India and Latin America are gathering strength and will continue to drive growth. North Africa is already firmly on the wind energy map, and there are signs that sub-Saharan Africa will also soon complete its first wind projects.
The signs are also positive in the established markets. In the USA, AWEA is reporting a very healthy project pipeline, while in Europe, the offshore boom has only just begun and Eastern European countries are starting to realise their potential. While the climate negotiations have failed to deliver a new climate deal which would put a price on carbon emissions and provide a powerful driver for wind power development, the wind industry will continue to draw its strength from national policies and measures. These continue to bear fruit, providing both environmental and economic benefits to those countries enacting them.
Every year in the spring, GWEC undertakes the difficult task of forecasting global wind market developments for the coming five years, and this exercise has become a fixture in our annual report. There is, of course, always a level of uncertainty in prognostication, and never more so than in times of economic upheaval. While the financial and economic crises seem to have been overcome in most markets, the full consequences of the credit crisis in 2008/2009 are only now becoming fully apparent in the wind industry, as the low levels of orders for wind turbines at the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009 have worked their way through the project development cycle.
For the past five years, GWEC’s forecast, which has always erred on the conservative side, was exceeded by actual market developments. Not so for 2010, where we had
anticipated a global market of 40 GW, while only 38.3 GW were in fact installed. This was mainly due to a depressed US market with new wind power installations reaching a mere 50% of those in 2009.
However, there is reason for cautious optimism for 2011 and the following years. Overall investment in wind power was up by 31% in 2010, reaching a record level of USD 96 billion (EUR 70.4 billion), according to bloomberg New Energy Finance. This investment will translate into actual projects in the coming years.
The growth in the Chinese wind sector has continuously outperformed the most optimistic expectations, and 2010 was no exception, with 18.9 GW of new wind power added, accounting for half of the total annual market. Ambitious
Market forecast for 2011-2015
government plans, supportive policies and staggering investment in the wind sector in 2010 all lead to the conclusion that growth is set to continue for the years to come, and China will remain one of the main engines driving the global wind sector.
As for the USA, the other major market driving global growth in the past, the future is less certain. The US manufacturing industry is reporting a healthy 5,600 MW under construction at the beginning of 2011, which is considerably more than at the same time in 2010. Given such indicators, we will probably see an upturn for wind in the USA, and the market might recover to its record 2009 level by 2015, or even before.
Overall, GWEC predicts that at the end of 2015, five years from now, global wind capacity will stand at 459 GW, up from 197 GW at the end of 2010. During 2015, 62.5 GW of new capacity will be added to the global total, compared to 38.3 GW in 2010.
The annual growth rates during this period will average 18.4% in terms of total installed capacity, and 110.3% for annual market growth. These rates are considerably lower than in GWEC’s last forecast published in 2010, and they are very modest compared to the past developments. This is mainly due to the continuing uncertainty about the North American market.
Regional distribution
Three regions will continue to drive the expansion of wind energy capacity: Asia, North America and Europe.
asia will remain the fastest growing market in the world,
driven primarily by China, which is set to continue the rapid upscaling of its wind capacity and hold its position as the world’s largest annual and cumulative market. Annual additions are expected to be well over 20 GW in China by 2015. This development is underpinned by very aggressive government policies supporting the diversification of electricity supply, supporting the growth of the domestic industry, and making significant investments in the transmission needed to get the electricity to market. Sustained growth is also expected in India, which will increase its capacity steadily by 2-3 GW every year, and be
complemented by growth in other Asian markets, including Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and the Philippines, among others. For Asia as a whole, the annual market is expected to increase from 21.5 GW in 2010 to 28 GW in 2015, which would translate into a total of 125.5 GW of new capacity to be added over this period – far more than in any other region. In 2012, Asia is expected to overtake Europe as the region with the largest total installed capacity, and it will reach a cumulative wind power generation capacity of 184.6 GW by 2015. MaRkeT FoRecasT 2011-2015 0 100 200 300 400 500 GW 0 5 10 15 20 25 % Annual capacity [GW] Cumulative capacity [GW] Annual capacity growth rate [%] Cumulative capacity growth rate [%]
2010 38.3 197.0 24.1 -0.5 2011 43.5 240.6 22.1 13.6 2012 48.1 288.7 20.0 10.6 2013 52.7 341.4 18.3 9.6 2014 57.1 398.5 16.7 8.3 2015 62.5 459.0 15.2 9.5 -0.5% 13.6% 10.6% 9.6% 8.3% 9.5% 24.1% 22.1% 20.0% 18.3% 16.7% 15.2%
We expect the north american market to remain subdued for the next two years, as legislative uncertainty at the federal level in both the US and Canada continues to be a concern, although the outlook is brighter in several US states and Canadian provinces. We expect the 2011 market to recover to 8 GW of new wind capacity (up from 5.8 GW in 2010), and by 2014, the annual North American wind market will have recovered to its 2009 size of 11 GW, growing to 12 GW in 2015. This would translate into an addition of 50 GW in the US and Canada over the next five years, and take cumulative capacity up to 94.2 GW.
europe will continue to host the largest wind capacity globally until 2012, when it will be overtaken by Asia. GWEC expects that by the end of 2015, Europe’s installed capacity will stand at 146.3 GW, compared to Asia’s 184.6 GW. by 2015, the annual market will reach 14.0 GW, and a total of 60 GW will be installed in Europe over this five year period. Large scale offshore wind developments in the coming years will account for an increasing share of the new wind capacity added in Europe, and by 2015, 3.1 GW (about 21%) of the annual market is expected to come from offshore
installations. This share is forecast to grow rapidly and will lend new momentum to developments in the following years.
While Germany and Spain are expected to remain the leading European markets, a larger number of strong markets will become the trend as Italy, France, the UK and Portugal continue expanding their wind capacity. There are also encouraging signs from growing markets in the new EU member states, especially in Romania and Poland, and some non-EU markets, such as Turkey. All of these countries are expected to contribute a larger share to the European total in the future.
Wind energy installations in latin america will start to contribute a growing share to the global market. Encouraging developments in markets such as brazil, Mexico and Chile lead GWEC to expect that at the end of 2015, a total of 19 GW will be installed in the region, an increase of 17 GW from 2010. However, this is still far from where many Latin American countries could be, given the region’s excellent wind resource. In many cases, the lack of favourable policy frameworks for wind power development and a lack of political commitment continue to hamper market development. Developments in the past year have shown that the region could still hold some surprises, and there are chances that the expansion of the wind markets could be much larger than what we can see from where we are today.
In the pacific region, both Australia and New Zealand are
expected to start growing at a stronger pace in the coming years to reach annual additions of 1.5 GW by 2015, up from just 176 MW in 2010. This would bring the region’s total installed capacity up to 7.4 GW by the end of 2015. both countries have spectacular wind resources and a great untapped potential, which is only slowly being developed. However, especially in Australia, the political signals are encouraging, and the healthy wind development pipelines across the region suggest that even more than this could be achieved.
GWEC’s outlook for africa and the Middle east is least certain. In the medium-term, the regions could develop into small but not insignificant players in the world’s wind market with annual installations reaching 2 GW by 2015, taking the total capacity up to 7.5 GW. However, substantial wind resources in some areas, developments in Kenya, Tanzania and Ethiopia, and a very large potential market in South Africa on the verge of taking off suggest that we could see much stronger growth rates in Africa in the long term.
annuaL MaRkeT FoRecasT BY Region 2010-2015
cuMuLaTiVe MaRkeT FoRecasT BY Region 2010-2015
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 GW 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 Europe North America Asia Latin America Pacific Middle East and Africa
9.9 5.8 21.5 0.7 0.2 0.2 10.0 8.0 22.5 1.5 0.7 0.8 11.0 9.0 24.0 2.5 0.8 0.8 12.0 10.0 25.0 3.5 1.0 1.2 13.0 11.0 26.0 4.5 1.0 1.6 14.0 12.0 28.0 5.0 1.5 2.0 140 160 180 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 GW Europe North America Asia Latin America Pacific Middle East and Africa
2010 86.3 44.2 61.1 2.0 2.4 1.1 2011 96.3 52.2 83.6 3.5 3.1 1.9 2012 107.3 61.2 107.6 6.0 3.9 2.7 2013 119.3 71.2 132.6 9.5 4.9 3.9 2014 132.3 82.2 158.6 14.0 5.9 5.5 2015 146.3 94.2 184.6 19.0 7.4 7.5
Wind power is expected to play a major role in helping Australia’s transition to a low carbon economy. The country boasts some of the best wind resources in the world, the so-called “roaring forties” which sweep the south coast. The Australian government has set a 20% Renewable Energy Target by 2020, and today, wind power is supplying over 5,100 GWh annually, which represents around 2% of national electricity consumption.
At the end of 2010, 1,880 MW of wind capacity was installed in Australia, consisting of 1,052 operating wind turbines spread over 52 wind farms. The amount of wind generation capacity has increased by an average of 30% per year over the past decade. While policy uncertainty, the low price of renewable energy certificates and the financial crisis made it difficult for developers to secure financing in 2010, recent changes to the implementation of the Renewable Energy Target should go a long way toward returning stability to the industry.
the australian wind market in 2010 and
beyond
Three new projects, which are all located in South Australia, became fully operational in 2010, adding 167 MW of capacity to the Australian electricity grid: Hallett 2 (71.4 MW), Clements Gap (56.7 MW) and Lake bonney Stage 3 (39 MW). A further eight projects totalling 1,047 MW are currently under construction and expected to be completed within the next three years.
An additional 8.8 GW of projects are proposed for
development in Australia, and have either received planning
and environmental approvals or are currently applying for them, and another 5 GW of projects are undergoing feasibility studies. There is no shortage of available prime onshore wind sites in Australia, and as a result, there are currently no plans to develop offshore wind farms.
The size of Australian wind farms is increasing, and Acciona’s 192 MW Waubra wind farm in Victoria is currently the largest with 128 turbines spread over 173 square kilometres. However, significantly larger wind farms are under
australia
Wind farms under construction
owner name State expected commission Capacity [MW]
AGL / Meridian Energy Macarthur Victoria 2013 420
Roaring 40s Musselroe Tasmania 2013 168
AGL Hallett Stage 4 (Nth brown Hill) South Australia 2011 132
Roaring 40s Waterloo South Australia 2011 111
Union Fenosa Crookwell 2 New South Wales 2011 92
AGL Oaklands Hill Victoria 2011 67
AGL Hallett Stage 5 (bluff wind farm) South Australia 2012 53
Hepburn Community wind farm Leonards Hill Victoria 2011 4
development, including the 420 MW AGL/Meridian Energy Macarthur wind farm in Victoria. The biggest project currently proposed is a 1,000 MW wind farm in New South Wales (Silverton wind farm) by Epuron, which, in its current form, will have 598 turbines and meet 4.5% of the state’s total power consumption.
While wind farms are present throughout Australia, South Australia accounts for nearly half of the total national wind capacity.
installed wind capacity in australia by state
State installed Capacity (MW)
South Australia 907
Western Australia 428
Victoria 202
Tasmania 187
New South Wales 143
Queensland 12
Australian Antarctic Territory 1
total: 1,880
Vestas dominates the Australian market with a market share of 38%, followed by Suzlon with 25%. Other international turbine manufacturers are also present with smaller market shares, including NEG Micon (11%), Acciona (10%), Repower (8%) and Enercon (6%).
the Renewable energy target Scheme
The Australian government’s Renewable Energy Target (RET)
Scheme1 started on 1 January 2010, mandating that 20% of
Australia’s electricity supply be sourced from renewable energy by 2020. The RET expands on the previous Mandatory Renewable Energy Target (MRET), which began in 2001. The RET is crucial in supporting investment in the renewable energy industry and it provides the main incentive for wind power development in Australia, unlocking an expected investment of more than AUD 20 billion (EUR 15 billion / USD 20 billion) over the next decade. As it is the least expensive large scale renewable energy, much of this target is expected to be met with investment in wind energy.
However, during the last two years, difficulties with the implementation of the RET coupled with the global financial crisis and policy uncertainty surrounding a price on carbon affected the lending practices and risk appetite of banks. This made it difficult for wind farm developers to secure financing in 2010.
In June 2010, the Australian Parliament passed legislation to separate the RET into two parts – the Large-scale Renewable Energy Target (LRET) and the Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme (SRES) – and this legislation entered into force on 1 January 2011. Separating the two parts is intended to provide greater certainty for large-scale renewable energy projects and small-scale renewable energy systems by addressing the oversupply of certificates.
other policy measures
Other policy measures for renewable energy development include the GreenPower schemes, which allow consumers to purchase renewable energy from their electric utility, as well as state-based feed-in tariff or buyback schemes for domestic scale wind technology that provide some level of payment or credit towards electricity bills.
In July 2010, the Environment Protection and Heritage Council released its draft National wind farm Development Guidelines2 for a period of 12 months to provide jurisdictions with the opportunity to assess how these guidelines would be incorporated within their existing planning and development processes. The guidelines aim to outline best practice for industry and planning authorities in areas including heritage, threatened species and turbine noise.
The Australian Wind Energy Forecasting System3 was
launched in 2008. This is a centralised system that provides predictions of wind energy generation using weather forecasts from meteorological bureaus and operational data from wind energy generators to forecast expected wind energy generation.
With input from the Clean Energy Council, Australia.
1 http://www.climatechange.gov.au/government/initiatives/renewable-target.aspx 2 http://www.ephc.gov.au/taxonomy/term/25
3 http://www.aemo.com.au/electricityops/awefs.html
ToTaL insTaLLed caPaciTY
year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Brazil
a tremendous wind resource
In 2001, the first brazilian wind atlas was published, estimating brazil’s wind power potential at around 143 GW at 50m. In 2008 and 2009, new measurements carried out in several states at 80-100 meters indicate that the real potential is considerably higher, at more than 350 GW. This compares to the country’s total power generation capacity of 113.4 GW at the end of 2010.
Large unpopulated land areas, a coastline of 9,650 km and excellent resources help secure brazil’s prime position as a potential wind energy giant. The best proven wind resources are in the North/Northeast region of brazil, and in particular in the states of Rio Grande do Norte, Ceará, Pernambuco and bahia. The South/Southeast also has good wind resources, especially in the states of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina.
Wind energy and hydro power –
perfect partners
brazil’s windiest areas are located conveniently close to the electricity grid and to demand centers. In addition, in a country mainly powered by hydro energy and increasingly suffering from water shortages, wind power can, help alleviate some serious energy security concerns, especially during the dry winters. In addition to seasonal fluctuations, the new hydro power plants that are currently under construction will have very little, if any, water storage due to environmental concerns. This will leave the brazilian
electricity system more vulnerable to climatic variability and climate change. Since 2001, electricity shortages have plagued the brazilian economy.
To mitigate this risk, over the past decade brazil has been investing in fossil fuel based power plants, thereby exposing the economy to high and volatile fuel prices.
the brazilian wind market in 2010
The brazilian wind market grew by 326 MW in 2010, bringing the total installed capacity up to 931 MW, a growth of 54.2% in terms of total installed capacity, and a 23.8% increase in terms annual capacity additions.
These numbers show that the brazilian wind market has now reached a stable pace of growth, and total installed capacity is expected to reach 1,000 MW during the first few months of 2011.
pRoinfa programme extended to end of 2011
brazil’s PROINFA scheme was first established in 2002 by the government to spur renewable energy development and to increase the share of renewable energy to 10% of brazil’s electricity supply by 2020, by stimulating the addition of over 1,100 MW of wind power, which was later expanded to 1,400 MW.
After a slow start, the programme was extended several times, now running until the end of 2011, and it looks increasingly likely that most of the 1,400 MW target will be met. Wind projects awarded through the PROINFA
programme account for over 95% of all wind power installations in brazil.
All 14 wind power projects installed and connected in 2010 were PROINFA projects, representing 26% of the total 1,429 MW capacity contracted under the scheme. Overall, 40 PROINFA wind farms are now in operation, totalling 900 MW, while a further 13 projects (394.1 MW) are still under construction, and the majority of these are scheduled to be connected to the grid by mid-2011. Only one remaining 135 MW PROINFA project has not yet started construction.
Wind power auctions in brazil
ReseRVe eneRgY aucTion LeR-2009In December 2009, the brazilian energy regulator ANEEL hosted the country’s first wind-only auction, contracting 71 wind energy projects for a total capacity of 1,800 MW. Six major wind turbine manufacturers successfully received orders following the auction: GE, IMPSA Wind, Siemens, Suzlon, Vestas and Wobben/Enercon.
At the time, ANEEL established a price ceiling of R$189 (EUR 83.4/USD 113.1) per MWh. Although this was already lower than expected, the average price achieved in the auction dropped to R$148 per MWh (EUR 88.6 / USD 65.3) on the day of the auction), as the result of the competition among developers of the more than 13 GW of wind projects that had already been licensed by ANEEL for this purpose.
aLTeRnaTiVe eneRgY aucTion LFa-2010 and ReseRVe eneRgY aucTion LeR-2010
In August 2010, ANEEL hosted another auction for small hydro, biomas and wind (Alternative Energy Auction LFA-2010), and the average price realised was below that of the 2009 auction (R$134 per MWh). 1,519 MW of wind power were contracted at this auction with 20 year PPAs, spread over 50 peojects. The developers with the most contracted capacity were Impsa-Energimp (270 MW) and Iberdrola (258 MW), followed by CHESF, Contour Global and Energisa. The contracted projects will have to deliver electricity to the grid by 1 January 2013.
On the same day, a second auction for the same renewable energy sources took place (Reserve Energy Auction LER-2010), awarding contracts to 20 wind power projects totalling 528 MW. The main winning developers here were Renova Energia, Iberdrola and Enel. These projects need to be
online by 1 September 2013. The average price stayed below the previous auctions at R$ 123/MWh (EUR 54.3 /USD 73.6).
Key players in the brazilian market
Historically, only one wind turbine manufacturer, Wobben Windpower, a subsidiary of German company Enercon, was present in the brazilian market, with two manufacturing plants. More recently other suppliers began to enter the market included the Argentinean company Impsa, as well as Suzlon and Vestas, which have both sold turbines to PROINFA projects.
More new market entrants that sold turbines in the 2009 and 2010 auctions include Alstom, Gamesa, GE Wind and Siemens. These foreign suppliers have now become eligible for bNDES financing, based on their commitment to manufacture wind turbine generators in brazil within a short time frame. The initial goal is to reach a local content share of 60%. In order to achieve this, both GE and Alstom Wind are currently building factories in brazil, while Gamesa and Suzlon have announced local manufacturing plants. Siemens already has a large manufacturing base in brazil which will allow the company to produce and assemble wind turbines. brazil is well positioned to supply the wider Latin American market as well as the market in the United States, either with completed wind turbines or with partly assembled parts.
outlook for 2011 and beyond
Assuming that the projects contracted in the auction are built according to schedule, the outlook for wind energy in brazil is very positive.
Together with the remaining 530 MW of PROINFA projects, which are scheduled to become operational in 2011 or 2012, 470 MW of the first projects from the auctions should be built in 2011 and another 1,800 MW by 2012. A further 1,500 MW could be coming online in 2013, according to the schedule of the 2010 auctions. A further two auctions have been announced for June 2011.
With input from the Brazilian Wind Energy Association (ABEEolica)
ToTaL insTaLLed caPaciTY
year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Wind energy in Canada
2010 represented another significant step forward for the wind energy industry in Canada with the addition of 690 MW of wind energy capacity – representing CAD 1.7 billion (EUR 1.3 bn / USD 1.7 bn) in new investment. These new projects, operating in british Columbia, Alberta, Ontario, New brunswick and Nova Scotia, brought Canada’s total installed wind energy capacity to 4,009 MW at the end of 2010. Ontario is the current provincial leader in installed wind energy capacity accounting for 1,457 MW – roughly one-third- of national wind energy development. Alberta and Quebec follow at 806 MW and 663 MW respectively, and Canada’s other seven provinces together account for the remainder. Wind energy has increased almost ten-fold in the last six years in Canada as governments seek ways to meet rising energy demand, reduce environmental impacts of electricity generation, and stimulate rural and industrial economic development. It is expected that wind energy’s rapid growth in Canada will continue with production tripling in the next five years.
the policy framework for wind energy
At the federal level, the current government’s failure to extend or replace its very successful ecoENERGY for
Renewable Power (ERP) incentive program in its 2010 budget was a significant setback. Among countries actively pursuing wind energy, it would be hard to find another where the federal government is playing such a limited role, and the implications for Canadian competitiveness are serious. That is particularly true when it comes to competing for investment with the United States, where the federal government plays a more important role in facilitating the development of wind energy. While the federal government has indicated that it believes it can best support wind energy deployment through the introduction of a regulatory framework and price for greenhouse gas emissions, the details and timing of such a framework remain unclear. Until then, the federal
government remains on the sidelines and responsibility for competing for wind energy investment rests with the provinces.
In 2009, the Ontario Government introduced Ontario’s new feed-in tariff (FiT) program under the Green Energy and
Economy Act, the first of its kind in North America. 2010 saw the awarding of 1,529 MW of wind energy contracts under the FiT.
Nova Scotia’s new energy policy, released in 2010, has established a new comprehensive framework for facilitating wind energy development in the province. Among its provisions is the creation of a mandatory target for 25% of the province’s electricity needs to be supplied from renewable sources by 2015 and a goal of boosting that to 40% by 2020.
In british Columbia, the provincial government has introduced a Clean Energy Act outlining where it wants to take its electricity sector in the years to come. Wind proved its viability in the market in bC Hydro’s 2010 call for clean power, with contracts awarded to six projects totaling 534 MW of capacity, and the government has made it clear it sees the technology as an important player in its future plans. At the end of 2010, Hydro-Quebec announced the results of a unique tendering process for 500 MW of wind energy from First Nations (indigenous peoples) and regional municipalities. With these new contracts, Quebec will have procured virtually all of the power required to meet its ambitious objective of 4,000 MW of wind energy by 2015. beyond 2015, however, the Quebec government has only indicated that it will procure 100 MW of wind energy for every additional 1,000 MW of
