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(1)ASIA NEWSFLASH February 2017. COUNTRY SPOTLIGHT. CHINA. Consolidation on Commodities and Cross Payment Border Controls China’s upstream industrial supply cuts and domestic stimulus helped revive key global commodities in 2016. Its copper import rose 31% y/y in Q1-Q3 2016, imparting optimism to the market (our price forecasts for 2018 shifted back over USD5,300 per tonne). Coal imports rose from under 40m tonnes in Q1 2016 to almost 60m tonnes in Q3 2016, after the state work safety agency enforced a limit of 276 working days on the coal industry, reviving coal prices, with Australian and Indonesian coal taking up most of the demand gap. In an allied sector, China’s steel mills increased output and sourced more overseas iron ore at the expense of the high-cost domestic industry. China is unlikely to be continuously supportive for commodities in 2017 with OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers rather taking up the task of upstream supply cuts. Likewise the automotive market witnessed growth of close to 20% in 2016 in vehicle sales, which will not be repeated in 2017 given the effective tax rises on cars with sub-1.6 litre engines, as purchase incentives are withdrawn. However, we expect the authorities to avoid another hard landing in 2017 as the political cycle moves up to the fiveyearly party congress, to re-appoint Xi Jinping as CCP General Secretary. On cross payment border controls, the State Council in November restricted outbound mergers and acquisitions. State agencies must vet all overseas acquisitions of over USD10bn (USD1bn for non-core acquisitions and purchases of real estate by stateowned enterprises). Gold imports were restricted in November; and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) now vets all FX purchases of over. USD5m, down from a previous USD50m. Moreover, the central bank will block domestic firms from transferring more than 30% of their net equity into offshore renminbi. Please click here to view the full report via your D&B subscription.. Country Headlines – Australia - Outlook downgraded amid weakness and economic contraction. – Indonesia - Economic growth expected to pick up modestly in 2017. – Japan - Yen faces more volatility as the Federal Reserve tightens policy. – Malaysia - The growth outlook for 2017 deteriorates as downside risks prevail. – New Zealand - Economic growth accelerates at the fastest rate in over five years. – Taiwan - Export recovery should strengthen economy in 2017.. Whether you are involved in strategic investment decisioning; financial risk analysis; or supply chain management, understanding the operational landscape in the countries where you do business is crucial. Dun & Bradstreet Country Insight Services provide analysis, ratings, and forecasting for over 130 countries. To find out more about our country insight reports and services please click here..

(2) ASIA NEWSFLASH February 2017. COUNTRY SPOTLIGHT | WEST ED ITIO N. The Brexit Effect Despite the elevated levels of uncertainty caused by the June 2016 Brexit vote, the British economy finished the year reasonably strongly particularly the manufacturing and service sectors. Nonetheless, the outlook is becoming gloomier as the weak pound (which has fallen considerably against the dollar, the euro and other major currencies since the referendum) is pushing up inflation. Import demand in particular will suffer, with the weakness of the pound likely to last until a Brexit settlement with the EU is in place. Our baseline scenario still foresees Brexit being completed within the 24-month timeframe laid out in. Article 50; however, as two years will not be sufficient time to negotiate post-Brexit EU-UK relations, we predict that an interim arrangement will come into force in Q1 2019, and that this will maintain freedom of movement in exchange for market access, thus giving the British economy time to prepare for ‘hard’ Brexit. By the mid-2020s, this interim arrangement will be replaced by a final agreement between London and Brussels: it seems likely that, under this deal, Click here to read the rest of the report if you have a subscription with us or contact your local D&B office. Growth set to pick up As the new government has promised changes in the tax and regulatory regimes; to the extent that expected corporate tax reform and deregulation aid business continuity and make it easier for US businesses to invest domestically, we will see an acceleration in the growth of business spending. Near-term FX risk will remain significant due to the strength of the US dollar. The strong dollar was largely responsible for net exports subtracting 1.7 percentage points from topline GDP in Q4, as exports dropped while imports rose.. Abstracting from day-to-day fluctuations, the broad trade-weighted US dollar is at its highest since February 2002, and we expect it to be under upward pressure in the near term. On the plus side, the strong dollar will counter some of the inflationary pressures building in the economy. Click here to read the rest of the report if you have a subscription with us or contact your local D&B office. Country Headlines – Germany - Political pressure increased with recent terror attack in Berlin.. – Spain - The country’s economic expansion looks likely to continue.. – France - Political risk is elevated but the economy holds up well.. – Netherlands - Political uncertainty rises ahead of March’s general election.. – Italy - Political uncertainty weighs on the short-term outlook.. – Switzerland - The risk of non-payment rises as business failures increases.. To read the full analysis on these countries click here or contact your local D&B office..

(3) THE DUNS REGISTERED SEAL Building your business is all about making the right connections and marketing to the right buyers. Establishing the credibility of your business, especially online, is a major challenge faced today by most enterprises especially with crowded marketplace. Potential customers or business partners are very wary about giving their Trust, more so, when they rely on online information. Considered a soft business attribute for far too long, Trust has emerged as a hard-edged economic driver that gives your business a competitive edge. To build online credibility a business must be keenly aware of the factors that influence the trust and confidence of prospects who visit their website. Companies have been known to invest enormous resources in elements like the aesthetics, security and commercial appeal of their websites. However, most companies continue to ignore one of internet’s stickiest problems - how to establish a credible connection between a website and the company behind it. With the D&B DUNS Registered program, Dun & Bradstreet (D&B), the world’s leading provider of global business information, knowledge and insight has designed a comprehensive set of online trust solutions. D&B Online Trust Solutions seek to enhance. the trust and confidence that your audience invests in your company and to help establish your credentials to a global audience by displaying verified and validated information about you online. With a D&B D-U-N-S Registered™ seal and profile, your company is able to: – Increase export / import opportunities as a result of increased global visibility and transparency in addition to establishing credibility and authenticity online – Shorten the decision making cycle of your potential customers, suppliers and business partners by proactively displaying your business information – Stand out and differentiate your business from your peers and competitors who have not opted for D&B D-U-N-S Registered – Give your potential customers, suppliers and business partners increased confidence to do business with you. To understand more on D&B online seal product and services, contact your local D&B office now.. CLIENT TESTIMONIALS Care&Care Health Products Co.. Hưng Thuận Group. Mr. Tsai, General Manager. Mr. Trần Văn Phương, General Secretary. Under the globalize trading, it is important to obtain the buyers or the partners trust. After applying for D&B D-U-N-S Registered Service, it is not only helpful for promoting our company’s global brand awareness, also let the buyers increase the confidence with us. And it can reduce the period of establishing mutual confidence and increase negotiating chips with customers. Up to the present, our company achieved the annual goal, 90%. By this recommendation, we express our agreement to D&B D-U-N-S Registered Service.. Hưng Thuận is a Group of 8 joint stock companies. To date, 7 of our companies are using DRS and we will renew our contracts this year. We were told of the seal’s benefits which include gaining trust from international partners and building strong connections with global players in our respective industries for business development purposes. We decided to purchase DRS for our First Company for the above benefits. Fast forward, we then bought 6 more seals. DRS  has helped us win some contracts with foreign partners.. To learn more on broadening your client base and partnership, contact your local D&B office now..

(4) ASIA NEWSFLASH February 2017. MARKET INSIGHT. Business Optimism to Gradually Falter By Dun & Bradstreet Malaysia | Dun & Bradstreet WWN partner. Business confidence in Malaysia remains upbeat despite signs of downward moderation in Q1 2017. According to Dun & Bradstreet (D&B) Malaysia’s Business Optimism Index (BOI) study, overall BOI has remained in the expansionary region, slipping for the third consecutive quarter, from +3.83 percentage points in Q4 2016 to +1.65 percentage points in Q1 2017. On a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis, BOI fell moderately from +4.75 percentage points in Q1 2016 to +1.65 percentage points in Q1 2017. OVERALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX (Q2 2013 – Q1 2017) 40. BOI. SCORE. 30. 20. percentage points. On the other end of the spectrum, both selling price and inventory levels have improved q-o-q. Selling price rose by +8.91 percentage points; this is partly attributed to the inflation in the country which is on an increasing trend (Dun & Bradstreet forecasts 2.5% inflation in 2017, up from 2.1% in 2016). Inventory levels by +2.97 percentage points. The agricultural sector has emerged as the most optimistic sector with 6 indicators in the expansionary region followed by transportation sector with 5 indicators in the positive region. The construction sector has also remained relatively upbeat for Q1 2017 with 4 indicators in the expansionary zone. However, net profits moderated downwards strongly from +25.0 percentage points to 0 percentage points. As with Q4 2016, both wholesale and mining sectors have remained the least optimistic sectors for Q1 2017.. 10. 0. -10. 2013. 2014. 2015. 2016. Q1. Q4. Q3. Q2. Q1. Q4. Q3. Q2. Q1. Q4. Q3. Q2. Q1. Q4. Q3. Q2. -20. 2017. Both net profits and employment levels have fallen into the negative territory q-o-q. Net profits fell by -12.94 percentage points while employment slipped by -3.49. FOLLOW HONG KONG. The CEO of Dun & Bradstreet Malaysia, Audrey Chia, remarked that the overall sentiments among the Malaysian business community for Q1 2017 have been relatively tepid compared to the preceding quarters as downside risks to growth have risen. Externallyoriented sectors such as wholesale trade will continue to face headwinds with softening exports. However, we expect the ongoing infrastructure projects within the construction and transportation sectors to offset the weakness in other sectors and provide modest growth support in the coming months.. THE PHILIPPINES. SINGAPORE. THAILAND. TAIWAN.

(5) ASIA NEWSFLASH February 2017. ASIA PERSPECTIVES. Dun & Bradstreet Explore how the Asia Pacific Region has Already Been Affected by the Trump Presidency By Dun & Bradstreet United Kingdom. HEADLINE ISSUES – The upward shock to global bond yields from the US election result has been felt across Asia Pacific sovereign debt. – US policies on trade and security over 2017-20 remain wildcards, which will promote uncertainty for Asia’s diplomats and supply chains alike. M A C R O E C O N O M I C I M PA C T S : E A R LY S I G N S. In 2016, the picture for much of the Asia Pacific region was dominated by low inflation, flat or shrinking international trade volumes, moderating interest rates, expansion in services and private consumption, and swings in market responses to Chinese industrial overcapacity. The US election result’s impact on bond markets and inflation expectations, and hence on emerging market currencies, has already potentially upended this holding pattern. If the avowed fiscal policy aims of the incoming US administration are credible, and do drive inflation, US short-term rates will be north of 2% by 2018 and long-term rates higher. The result has been Asian government bond yields jumping sharply - often by as much as half a percentage point - since the US election, to above end-2015 levels in South Korea, Malaysia and the Philippines. FOLLOW HONG KONG. If the post-US election trend is sustained for regional bond markets, further pressure on emerging Asia currencies will follow and could bring debtservicing challenges for both local currency- and FXdenominated borrowing. By the end of November, the Chinese yuan had already almost touched CNY7:USD offshore, and Malaysia’s ringgit had reached a low versus the dollar not seen since the Asian financial crisis almost 20 years ago. The prospect for higher US inflation and interest rates has also weakened the yen, which has not demonstrated its safe-haven status since the US presidential election, and this is likely to remain the case for the near term. The weaker yen favours Japan’s large corporations (which earn the bulk of their profits abroad) and exporters, but it harms smalland medium-sized enterprises that will have to rely on more expensive imports.. THE PHILIPPINES. SINGAPORE. THAILAND. TAIWAN.

(6) ASIA NEWSFLASH February 2017. ASIA PERSPECTIVES. In any case, if the Fed rate rise due in December is followed by more in 2017, the easing cycle seen in the region after the policy rate cuts by Australia, South Korea, India and Indonesia since Q2 (the most recent being Indonesia’s and India’s in October) will be over. Meanwhile, the stabilising oil price since the OPEC deal in late 2016 will help energy sectors throughout Asia but also help to prise the lid off inflation and act to import costs for oil importers China and India.. to impose a cascade of anti-dumping/countervailing duties on US grain exports, which would rile the farm lobby early in the Trump administration, as well as anti-monopoly and straight-up criminal investigations. US soybean exporters are potentially already under the cosh, with a Chinese action in readiness. Meanwhile, Qualcomm’s almost USD1bn fine imposed by Chinese authorities in 2015 speaks to the levels of cost regulatory risk can impose.. N E W A D M I N I S T R AT I O N : P O L I C Y I M PA C T S. US trade and security policy remain wildcards. The former has already seen a collapse of hopes for the Trans-Pacific Partnership, an ambitious, US-led 12-country pact to deepen and accelerate trade via common standards and limits on non-tariff barriers. Although China’s alternative Regional Closer Economic Partnership will now make headway, in a coup for Chinese policymakers, it is a less ambitious gluing together of existing regional free trade agreements, and important players in the TPP such as Australia and New Zealand will have to invest in further rounds of trade diplomacy to reposition. Moreover, if the US administration’s intent on defending US employment over free trade is really made an immediate priority, the threat to tens of thousands of supply chains built up over almost two decades, such as Apple’s – almost 75% of its more than 200 suppliers are located in China – could be existential. China’s components and raw materials suppliers throughout Asia, located in many US-allied countries, would also be at risk from a US-China trade war and 1930s-style tariffs. Even if the Trump campaign view of 45% tariffs on Chinese goods is quickly abandoned, the 266% tariffs on Chinese steel imposed by the US Commerce Department in 2016 could be replicated quickly in other areas – the Department was already considering aluminium. If broad US tariffs are unlikely, more pinpoint trade measures, for example to defend breaches of American intellectual property rights, are feasible. China will certainly not be gaining support from the US for ‘market economy’ status at the WTO in December. What is not immediately appreciated is the scope for Chinese policymakers to respond to a trade war. Boeing and Apple have been cited as potential losers, but farm states in the US are also vulnerable. Chinese policymakers equally have their finger on the trigger. FOLLOW HONG KONG. R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S. – Expect to see a continued divergence of collection patterns for manufacturing and services sectors, and for consumer/downstream and upstream firms, into 2017 – Use a mix of credit insurance, guarantees and documentary credit and collection terms across sectors – Expect a move in China’s yuan past the CNY7:USD threshold by early 2017 To read the full article, visit here.. THE PHILIPPINES. SINGAPORE. THAILAND. TAIWAN.

(7) ASIA NEWSFLASH February 2017 COMPOSITE CFO OPTIMISM INDEX QUARTERLY REPORT Q1 1 2017 D&B India latest report unveils risk management tool to be adopted during the next six months. Percentage of CFOs indicating increase in close monitoring of strategic accounts have almost doubled from around 45% during the survey conducted for the period Apr to Sept of 2016 to an average of around 88% for the period between Oct 2016 to Mar 2017. OVERALL OPTIMISM INDEX. S TAT ESID E. D&B’s U.S. Economic Health Tracker Reveals Continued Challenges for Small Businesses Balanced by Positive Job Growth – The U.S. Small Business Health Index fell 1.0 point on a sequential basis in December 2016 bringing the level to 90.8 points – a little over 3 points below its level from one year ago. Although all sectors declined on a sequential basis, two sectors – Business Services and Real Estate showed improvement on a Y/Y basis. – We forecast the U.S. labor market to have added 171,000 jobs to U.S. payrolls during January 2017. As the country transitions to a new administration, the labor market will presumably continue to strengthen creating opportunities for more workers. Policies that target specific portions of the labor market that still show weakness will be most beneficial. – Dun & Bradstreet’s Overall Business Health Index (OBHI) rose 0.2% on a month-tomonth basis in December, signaling a slight post-election improvement in balance sheet health among all active and open U.S. businesses.. – Dun & Bradstreet Composite CFO Optimism Index on a q-o-q basis declined most in 6 quarters – The Composite CFO Optimism Index for Q1 2017 declined by around 8.0% on a q-o-q basis – The fall in optimism among the CFOs in the industrial sector have turned out to be stronger than the CFOs in the services sector during Q1 2017. To get the full reports, please contact SinghArun@DNB.com. SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT Our Newsflash release schedule has been updated. Mark your calendar now.. April. 7day 1 n o M. August. 15. June. 15 Friday. October. 16. Monday. Tuesday. December. 15. Friday. Click here to read the latest report. FOLLOW HONG KONG. THE PHILIPPINES. SINGAPORE. THAILAND. TAIWAN.

(8) ASIA NEWSFLASH February 2017. SPECIAL REPORT. Country Outlook 2017 T H I S R E P O R T F E AT U R E S C U R AT E D I N D U S T R I A L O U T L O O K A N D O V E R A L L INSIGHT FROM FIVE COUNTRIES IN SOUTH EAST ASIA FROM THE O R I G I N A L C O U N T R Y I N S I G H T 2 0 1 7 , C O U R T E S Y O F AT R A D I U S .. INDONESIA. THE PHILIPPINES. SINGAPORE. THAILAND. VIETNAM. Icons explain:. EXCELLENT. GOOD. FA I R. POOR. BLEAK. The credit risk situation in the sector is strong / business performance in the sector is strong compared to its longterm trend.. The credit risk situation in the sector is benign / business performance in the sector is above its long-term trend.. The credit risk credit situation in the sector is average / business performance in the sector is stable.. The credit risk situation in the sector is relatively high / business performance in the ector is below long-term trend.. The cedit risk situation in the sector is poor / business performance in the sector is weak compared to its longterm trend.. Atradius Country Report – Asia Pacific – January 2017.

(9) ASIA NEWSFLASH February 2017. SPECIAL REPORT. INDONESIA. INDONESIA INDUSTRIES PERFORMANCE OUTLOOK JANUARY 2017 AGRICULTURE. AUTOMOTIVE/ TRANSPORT. CHEMICALS/ PHARMA. CONSTRUCTION. CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS. CONSUMER DURABLES. ELECTRONICS/ICT. FINANCIAL SERVICES. FOOD. MACHINES/ ENGINEERING. METALS. PAPER. SERVICES. STEEL. TEXTILES. Indonesia is a large and relatively closed economy. Structurally it is vulnerable to external shocks, due to a high dependency on commodity exports (which account for more than 60% of exports), its dependence on oil imports and a high stock of inward portfolio investment. STRUCTURAL WEAKNESSES REMAIN, AND F I R M S A R E I N C R E A S I N G LY V U L N E R A B L E T O C U R R E N C Y V O L AT I L I T Y. Despite generally sound economic fundamentals, Indonesia’s external position is currently more vulnerable than in the past. Indonesia is highly dependent on portfolio investments for financing its persistent current accounts deficits and increased private sector external debt, which makes the economy vulnerable to further monetary tightening in the US and the resulting impact on capital flows to and from emerging markets in general. In 2013/2014 Indonesia already experienced a massive international capital Atradius Country Report – Asia Pacific – January 2017. outflow when the local currency came under pressure, as the US Federal Reserve tapered its bond-buying programme and foreign investors sold off financial assets and shares. That said, Indonesia´s vulnerability to shifts in investor sentiment is somehow mitigated by sound monetary policies and the fact that a large part of public external debt is long term. While the overall economy is generally shielded from major repercussions due to a relatively low foreign debt level and strong access to capital, Indonesian firms are increasingly vulnerable to currency volatility. This is because of their large share of external debt: Indonesian corporate external debt has more than doubled since 2010 and currently amounts to more than 70% of total exports, the highest such ratio in the world. This increases refinancing risk for firms and their vulnerability to exchange rate depreciation..

(10) ASIA NEWSFLASH February 2017. SPECIAL REPORT. THE PHILIPPINES. PHILIPPINES INDUSTRIES PERFORMANCE OUTLOOK JANUARY 2017 AGRICULTURE. AUTOMOTIVE/ TRANSPORT. CHEMICALS/ PHARMA. CONSTRUCTION. CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS. CONSUMER DURABLES. ELECTRONICS/ICT. FINANCIAL SERVICES. FOOD. MACHINES/ ENGINEERING. METALS. PAPER. SERVICES. STEEL. TEXTILES. P E R S I S T E N T LY H I G H G R O W T H R AT E S D R I V E N BY DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION. Growth is expected to remain at a level of about 6% in 2017, on the back of increasing government spending (infrastructure projects) and private consumption, which is sustained by low oil prices, decreasing unemployment and the continuing inflow of remittances. A growing middle-class is expected to sustain robust private consumption growth over the next couple of years. The Duterte administration is promoting infrastructure projects and is focused on empowering merchandise competitiveness. Indeed, rail networks, ports, roads and airport developments are necessary in order to safeguard high economic growth rates in the long term. Business investments and exports are contributing to GDP growth as well. Given that the US and Japan are major export destinations, the Philippines is less Atradius Country Report – Asia Pacific – January 2017. affected by lower demand from China than many of its Southeast Asian peers. Consolidation has helped the Philippine banking sector remain healthy. Banks are largely financed by deposits, making them more resilient to tighter credit conditions in the wholesale credit market. Despite trade deficits, the current accounts are structurally positive due to the inflow of remittances from overseas workers and rising services exports. External financing requirements are low and international reserves amount to more than 15 months of import cover. Despite robust domestic demand, the Philippines´ economic expansion is still hampered by a difficult business environment, with corruption and poor infrastructure impeding investments..

(11) ASIA NEWSFLASH February 2017. SPECIAL REPORT. SINGAPORE. SINGAPORE INDUSTRIES PERFORMANCE OUTLOOK JANUARY 2017 AGRICULTURE. AUTOMOTIVE/ TRANSPORT. CHEMICALS/ PHARMA. CONSTRUCTION. CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS. CONSUMER DURABLES. ELECTRONICS/ICT. FINANCIAL SERVICES. FOOD. MACHINES/ ENGINEERING. METALS. PAPER. SERVICES. STEEL. TEXTILES. SLUGGISH GROWTH, BUT STRONG F U N D A M E N TA L S R E M A I N. Singapore’s income per capita and level of development meet OECD standards. This city state is the main transport and financial service hub for Southeast Asia, but its economy is somewhat vulnerable because of its high reliance on demand from its trading partners and the focus on certain specific sectors such as electronics and pharmaceuticals. Nevertheless, for a small state the economy is relatively well diversified. Singapore’s banking sector is healthy and adequately supervised. The city state´s long-term growth strategy is to move away from being just a trade, transport and financial hub and to become a centre of high-tech Atradius Country Report – Asia Pacific – January 2017. industry. This strategy is starting to bear fruit in the bio-medical sector. Singapore’s economic growth is expected to remain subdued in 2017, due to continued weaker demand from China and other Asian countries. Mainly affected are manufacturing, the oil and gas industry and the services sector. Private consumption and investment growth are expected to increase in 2017, sustaining the economic performance. However, due to its high dependency on international trade Singapore is very susceptible to risks stemming from a hard landing of the Chinese economy and any protectionist measures taken by the new US government in its trade policy towards Asia..

(12) ASIA NEWSFLASH February 2017. SPECIAL REPORT. THAILAND. THAILAND INDUSTRIES PERFORMANCE OUTLOOK JANUARY 2017 AGRICULTURE. AUTOMOTIVE/ TRANSPORT. CHEMICALS/ PHARMA. CONSTRUCTION. CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS. CONSUMER DURABLES. ELECTRONICS/ICT. FINANCIAL SERVICES. FOOD. MACHINES/ ENGINEERING. METALS. PAPER. SERVICES. STEEL. TEXTILES. HIGHER GROWTH EXPECTED IN 2017. Thailand’s economy is expected to grow about 3% in 2016 and 2017, mainly due to increasing tourist arrivals (tourism accounts for 45% of services output) and public investment in infrastructure improvement, populist measures and longstanding subsidies. Extensive fiscal populism is expected to be pursued until the next elections in late 2017. The Thai banking sector is healthy, as banks are well capitalised, although profitability is shrinking. While lending is covered by deposits, non-performance loan ratios are low (2.4% in June 2016) and do not currently raise concerns. Yearly growth rates of around 3% are below the economy´s potential and lower than those of many of Thailand´s peers in Southeast Asia. Higher growth is held back by less export demand from China and low commodity prices, which have eaten into the revenues of the agricultural sector. Reliance on tourism exposes Thailand to economic downturns in other economies (especially China, which Atradius Country Report – Asia Pacific – January 2017. accounts for a major share of tourist arrivals) and risks from security issues. The Thai baht is subject to a managed floating exchange rate regime, which reduces volatility risks. However, the expected decrease in the current account surplus (due to reduced exports and rising import costs to ensure supplies for infrastructure projects and government spending) and monetary tightening in the US will probably put downward pressure on the baht in 2017. While Thailand´s short-term economic outlook is positive, the long-term perspective is less so, due to decreasing international competition, high private debt levels and long-term political uncertainty. High income inequality and poverty have increased social instability, which together with the current autocratic political trend increases the likelihood of renewed large scale protests and the incentive for the military government to introduce costly populist transfer policies in order to appease the rural poor..

(13) ASIA NEWSFLASH February 2017. SPECIAL REPORT. VIETNAM. VIETNAM INDUSTRIES PERFORMANCE OUTLOOK JANUARY 2017 AGRICULTURE. AUTOMOTIVE/ TRANSPORT. CHEMICALS/ PHARMA. CONSTRUCTION. CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS. CONSUMER DURABLES. ELECTRONICS/ICT. FINANCIAL SERVICES. FOOD. MACHINES/ ENGINEERING. METALS. PAPER. SERVICES. STEEL. TEXTILES. H I G H G R O W T H A N D I N F L AT I O N B A C K UNDER CONTROL. Real GDP growth is expected to increase above 6% in 2017, as agricultural output is picking up again after a drought and exports will grow further, since Chinese merchandise is being substituted by cheaper Vietnamese products. Private consumption growth is supported by low inflation, low local interest rates and rising wages. The persistently high inflation (with double-digit rates in 2010 and 2011) has, since 2013, finally decreased, enabling the central bank to lower the benchmark interest rate to the current rate of 6.5%. Inflation is expected to increase modestly in 2017 as the dong continues to depreciate and food prices rise. M A N Y W E A K N E S S E S A N D F U N D A M E N TA L CHALLENGES REMAIN. Vietnam is highly dependent on Asia as an export market (50% of deliveries), and therefore remains susceptible to economic downturns in the region. Vietnam was supposed to be a major beneficiary of the US-led TransPacific Partnership (which would have led to a significant Atradius Country Report – Asia Pacific – January 2017. increase of its medium-term growth prospects), but the decision of the US administration to withdraw from the agreement has left its future in limbo. Foreign-owned businesses account for about 70% of Vietnam´s exports, which makes the economy vulnerable to a slowdown should foreign companies withdraw their operations (e.g. in search of cheaper labour). According to the Asian Development Bank (ADB), only 35% of companies are integrated into export industries as domestic suppliers to foreign-owned export businesses in Vietnam (compared with nearly 60% in Malaysia and Thailand). The Vietnamese banking sector suffers from low transparency, weak capitalisation, state intervention and a high rate of non-performing loans (estimated at about 12%), due mainly to politically motivated lending. The government has been slow to inject new capital into the financial sector and hesitant to modernise their operations. Vietnamese businesses suffer from limited access to capital, making it harder for them to compete internationally. The flaws of the banking sector and limits on foreign ownership hamper efforts to attract more foreign capital..

(14) ASIA NEWSFLASH DATA SHOWCASE. The Business Information You Need That We Have CHINA. JAPAN. 4. 2.4. BUSINESS MILLIONS RECORDS BY END OF 2017. MILLIONS RECORDS. 200K NEW BUSINESSES 92K PARTIAL FINANCIAL STATEMENTS. 828K FINANCIAL DATA PACKETS 420K ADDITIONAL SALES FIGURES 54K RECORDS WITH 3+ TRADE EXPERIENCE 1.7M RECORDS NOW SHOW THE LEGAL STATUS CODE. INDONESIA. 4. NEW FAMILY TREES. WITH 2,130 MEMBERS. 12.2K NEW BUSINESS RECORDS PHONE CONNECTIVITY BY 21% 20.6K EXISTING RECORDS. SINGAPORE. 23. NEW TELEPHONE K NUMBERS. 9.4K NEW EMAIL ADDRESSES 72.5K TELEPHONE NUMBERS 36.6K EMAIL ADDRESSES. HONG KONG TRADE ACQUISITION 3 NEW INDUSTRIES: – WHOLESALE LABELS – WHOLESALE MOBILE CASES – WHOLESALE BEAUTY PRODUCTS 11K NEWLY REGISTERED LIMITED COMPANIES 30 TRADE PARTNERS WITH OVER 6K TRADE EXPERIENCES. Legend :. Added. Increased. Updated.

(15) ASIA NEWSFLASH DATA SHOWCASE. The Business Information You Need That We Have INDIA. 1. MILLION+ RECORDS NOW HAVE TRADE PAYMENT DATA. 310. RECORDS NOW HAVE K 3+TRADE DATA. 232K NEW EMPLOYEE FIGURES 600K NEW/REFRESHED TELEPHONE NUMBERS 170K NEW/REFRESHED URLS, AS WELL AS PHONE, CONTACT NAME AND SIC UPDATES ACTIVITY DETECTION IN 7 LARGEST INDIAN STATES. VIETNAM. SOUTH KOREA. 85. % OF THE BUSINESS UNIVERSE SIZE. 1.2. MILLIONS NEW RECORDS. 273K IN DEC 2015 TO 567K IN DEC 2016 38K RECORDS 275K RECORDS WITH FINANCIAL INFORMATION. ALL RECORDS WITH NEW POSTAL CODE AND ADDRESS 120K FINANCIAL STATEMENTS. THAILAND TAIWAN. 248. K. RECORDS WITH 2015 EXPORT/ IMPORT ANNUAL VOLUME. 6.6K NEW OVERSEAS CHINESE AND FOREIGN INVESTMENT COMPANIES. FIRMOGRAPHIC*. DATA COVERAGE 23% TO 52%. 200K PHONE NUMBERS. PHILIPPINES. FIRMOGRAPHIC*. COVERAGE TO 14% BY REFRESHING 17K RECORDS. 65.2K OOB RECORDS * Firmographic data elements include Sales and Employees figures (Actual, Estimate, and Modeled) and Year Start to provide a more complete picture of business size and age.. Legend :. Added. Increased. Updated.

(16) Subscribe. If you wish to stay informed and directly receive industry newsfeeds or market updates regarding specific countries (below) on a regular basis, kindly contact the following: C H I NA H ONG KONG I NDI A I NDONESIA JAPAN . MAL AYSIA PH I L I PP INES SI NGAPORE TAI WA N . : Monthly Market Watch (Chinese) : D&B Hong Kong Quarterly e-Newsletter : Monthly Economy Observer (English) : Daily News Headlines (English) : Monthly Bankruptcy Trends (Japanese) : TSR Global Economic News (Japanese) : Weekly News Bites (English) : Weekly News Bites (English) : Weekly News Bites (English) : Monthly e-Newsletter (Chinese). liclaire@dnb.com loa@dnb.com singharun@dnb.com fariz@dnb.co.id marketing.tsr-net marketing.tsr-net dnb.marketing@dnb.com.sg limonk@dnb.com.ph dnb.marketing@dnb.com.sg marketingtw@dnb.com. Feedback. We welcome your feedback so please send us your comments or email PublicationContact-JP@dnb.com to subscribe or unsubscribe to the monthly Newsflash.. Disclaimer. The information in this newsletter is provided “as is” without warranty of any kind. In no event will D&B or its information providers be liable in any way with regard to such information or your use of it. D&B makes no representations, warranties or endorsements with respect to any websites or services that are linked to this newsletter, or information thereon. When you access a non-D&B site, or information from a non-D&B site, you acknowledge that D&B has no control over the content or information at that site, and that it is your responsibility to protect your systems from viruses and other items of a destructive nature. © 2016 Dun & Bradstreet, Inc..

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