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SEE PAGE 15 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
Global Markets Daily
Powell Down Sentiment
Still Looking for AUD and S&P500 to Extend Losses
Dovish remarks from Fed Chair Powell overnight further weighed on market sentiment. He warned that the “scope and speed of
this downturn are without modern precedent, significantly worse than any recession since WWII… while outlook is highly uncertain and subject to significant downside risks… (Economic) recovery may take time to get going…” Our tactical call (see here and
here) for a corrective pullback on risk asset rally panned out. We remain cautious of the big divergence between Wall Street and Main Street and a trigger could close the gap. Furthermore technical signs have been building up on risk proxies. In particular we shared that if S&P500 can further push below 2850 (21 DMA) then an extension of the decline could pick up pace towards 2775 (23.6% fibo retracement of Mar to May rally), 2725 (50 DMA) and 2663 (38.2% fibo). The break below 21 DMA took place overnight. We continue to look for AUD to head lower towards 0.6420, 0.6290 levels while EURAUD could see a bounce towards 1.69, 1.72 levels. AXJ FX could also unwind some of its recent gains. Malaysia GDP Slowed as Expected; Likely to Slow Further in 2Q Malaysia 1Q 2020 real GDP growth slowed to +0.7% YoY (4Q 2019: +3.6% YoY) in line with our house view’s +0.6% YoY estimate (consensus: -1.0% YoY) as the impact of global pandemic and local lockdown kicked in. Our Economist maintained their -3.3% full-year real GDP growth forecast but lowered the average declines in 2Q-4Q 2020 GDP to –4.8% YoY from –4.0% YoY previously, largely to factor in the longer movement control order (MCO) albeit with conditional easing. Please see note here for further details. USDMYR continues to trade within recent range; last seen at 4.3360 levels.
US Jobless Claims Eyed Today
Key data of interest today include US Initial jobless claims (May 9); Import, export price index (Apr); German CPI.
Implied USD/SGD Estimates at 14 May 2020, 9.00am Upper Band Limit Mid-Point Lower Band Limit
1.3930 1.4215 1.4499
Analysts
G7: Events & Market Closure
Date Ctry Event
13 May NZ RBNZ
AXJ: Events & Market Closure
Date Ctry Event
11 May MY Market Closure Saktiandi Supaat (65) 6320 1379 [email protected] Christopher Wong (65) 6320 1347 [email protected] Tan Yanxi (65) 6320 1378 [email protected] Fiona Lim (65) 6320 1374 [email protected] Majors Prev Close % Chg Asian FX Prev Close % Chg EUR/USD 1.0818 -0.28 USD/SGD 1.42 0.16 GBP/USD 1.2232 -0.23 EUR/SGD 1.5362 -0.12 AUD/USD 0.6455 -0.25 JPY/SGD 1.3267 0.24 NZD/USD 0.5991 -1.43 GBP/SGD 1.7369 -0.08 USD/JPY 107.03 -0.10 AUD/SGD 0.9171 -0.10 EUR/JPY 115.8 -0.36 NZD/SGD 0.8513 -1.23 USD/CHF 0.9721 0.27 CHF/SGD 1.4604 -0.16 USD/CAD 1.4101 0.16 CAD/SGD 1.007 -0.02 USD/MYR 4.3278 -0.04 SGD/MYR 3.0528 -0.11 USD/THB 32.085 -0.10 SGD/IDR 10474.41 -0.37 USD/IDR 14865 -0.27 SGD/PHP 35.4484 -0.13 USD/PHP 50.267 -0.11 SGD/CNY 4.9997 -0.13
14 May 2020 2
G7 Currencies
DXY Index – Consolidate. Dovish remarks from Fed Chair Powell
overnight further weighed on market sentiment. His bleak assessment of growth outlook was a divergence from what Trump’s Administration has been painting – that the economy will see a quick rebound. Powell sounded a lot more cautious. He warned that the “scope and speed of this downturn are without modern
precedent, significantly worse than any recession since WWII… outlook is highly uncertain and subject to significant downside risks… (Economic) recovery may take time to get going…” He
acknowledged that fiscal response was the swiftest in post war era but emphasized that additional fiscal support though costly, is needed to battle the downturn. He also assured that Fed will continue to use tools to support the economy until recovery is well underway; and when crisis ends, the Fed will wind down emergency support tools. On negative rates, Powell reiterated that NIRP is not currently an attractive monetary tool and evidence of NIRP’S effectiveness is very mixed. Fed will continue to use forward guidance and asset purchases. Our tactical call (see here
and here) for a corrective pullback on risk asset rally panned out. We remain cautious of the big divergence between Wall Street and Main Street and a trigger could close the gap. Furthermore technical signs have been building up on risk proxies. In particular we shared that if S&P500 can further push below 2850 (21 DMA) then an extension of the decline could pick up pace towards 2775 (23.6% fibo retracement of Mar to May rally), 2725 (50 DMA) and 2663 (38.2% fibo). The break below 21 DMA took place overnight. We continue to look for AUD to head lower towards 0.6420, 0.6290
levels while EURAUD could see a bounce towards 1.69, 1.72 levels. AXJ FX could also unwind some of its recent gains. DXY firmed; last
seen at 100.2 levels. Broader price action continues to suggest consolidation in the triangle formation. Resistance at 100.5 and 101 levels. Support at 99.60 (50 DMA), 98.70 (100 DMA) and 98.40 (200 DMA). Week remaining brings Initial jobless claims (May 9); Import, export price index (Apr) on Thu; Retail sales, industrial production (Apr); Empire Manufacturing (May) on Fri.
EURUSD – Consolidating in Triangle Pattern. EUR slipped amid broad USD rebound post-Powell’s bleak assessment on growth outlook while NIRP idea once again fell flat on Powell’s rejection. Pair was last seen at 1.0850 levels. Momentum indicators are not showing a clear bias. Resistance at 1.0850 (21 DMA), 1.0930 (50 DMA). Support at 1.0790, 1.0730 levels. We look for 1.0790 – 1.0089 range intra-day. Week remaining brings German CPI (Apr) on Thu; EU, German GDP (1Q); Trade (Mar) on Fri.
14 May 2020 3
1.2230 levels. Daily momentum is mild bearish. Support at 1.2180 (38.2% fibo) and 1.2040 (50% fibo). Resistance at 1.2350/60 (50 DMA, 23.6% fibo retracement of Mar low to Apr double-top), 1.2390 (21 DMA) and 1.2550. We reiterate our caution on GBP in the near term on a combination of factors including the severity and spread of COVID-19 in UK that is likely to inflict a sharp damage to growth for 1H, more BoE stimulus, confusion over lockdown exit strategy and little visibility over post-brexit trade talks with EU (negotiations to start this week).
USDJPY – Ranged, Risks Modestly Skewed to Downside. As
cautioned yesterday (“ranged, risks modestly skewed to downside”), pair saw modest swings around 107 but on net dipped by around 30pips compared to yesterday morning. Last seen at 106.90. Powell’s dire view of the economy in his speech yesterday night as well as a bleak report by the UN (pandemic wiping out four years of growth, possibly pushing 130mn people into poverty by 2030) took the S&P down towards the 2800 mark (from intraday peak of around 2875). There were also signs of US-China tensions, as the US federal employee retirement fund may scrap its plan to shift its international component into an index that includes Chinese companies, voiding US$4.5bn of potential inflows into Chinese equities. Yields on USTs had dipped alongside, supporting USDJPY down-moves as well. On net, ranged trading could persist, with risks still skewed to the downside for the pair, especially if the US-China risk factor gets played up. Momentum on daily chart is mildly bullish while stochastics do not show clear biases at this point. Resistance at 107.10 (21-DMA), 107.70 (38.2% fibo retracement from Mar low to high), 108.50 (100-DMA). Support at 106.40 (50.0% fibo), 105.20 (61.8% fibo). Machine tool orders due today.
NZDUSD – Bearish Divergence Playing Out. NZD fell amid broad
USD strength as Powell’s dovish remarks on growth dampened risk sentiment. Pair was last seen at 0.5985 levels. Daily momentum turned bearish while RSI is falling. Potential bearish divergence on daily MACD is playing out. Risks skewed to the downside. Support at 0.5960, 0.5910. Resistance at 0.6050 (21, 50 DMAs), 0.6110 levels. Week remaining brings Budget 2020 on Thu; Mfg PMI (Apr) on Fri. In MPC meeting yesterday, RBNZ kept OCR on hold as expected at 0.25% but expanded size of QE by twice to $60bn. RBNZ’s OCR forward projection into 2021 showed no forecast of negative rates – resulted in NZD’s initial spike earlier but subsequently ease to trade intra-day low when RBNZ said it is prepared to cut cash rate further if needed.
14 May 2020 4
14 May 2020 5
Asia ex Japan Currencies
SGD trades around +0.15% from the implied mid-point of 1.4215 with the top estimated at 1.3930 and the floor at 1.4499.
USDSGD – Bearish Trend Channel at Risk. Pair traded largely ranged yesterday, alongside zig-zagging in broad dollar strength. It was headed towards 1.4140 at one point but retraced upwards last night as risk sentiments soured alongside Powell’s dire view of the economy in his speech. Last seen at 1.4195. There were also increasing signs of US-China tensions, as the US federal employee retirement fund may reportedly scrap its plan to shift its international component into an index that includes Chinese companies, voiding US$4.5bn of potential inflows into Chinese equities. Domestically, the real estate market is starting to see Covid-led pains as well, with April private home sales diving 62%. Pair is trading near to the upper bound of our identified potential bearish trend channel. A decisive close above 1.4250 may nullify the trend channel. On net, some ranged trading may be seen in the interim, with a swift recovery in AxJ FX looking less likely than before. On daily chart, momentum has turned slightly bullish, while stochastics are on the climb. Resistance nearby at 1.4200 (50.0% fibo retracement from March low to high), before 1.4310 (38.2% fibo). Support at 1.4100 (61.8% fibo), 1.3970 (76.4% fibo)..
SGDMYR – Respect Trend Channel. SGDMYR slipped modestly amid SGD underperformance. Cross was last seen at 3.0530 levels. Bearish momentum on daily chart intact which potential bearish divergence seen on daily RSI remains. Nonetheless price action remains confined to the bullish trend channel formed since Feb. Respect the trend channel and fade the extremes. Resistance at 3.06 (21DMA, 23.6% fibo). 3.0880. Support at 3.0440/50 (38.2% fibo, 50 DMA), 3.0380 (200 DMA), 3.0300 (100 DMA, 50% fibo retracement of 2020 low to high, lower bound of channel).
14 May 2020 6
City and higher numbers in Germany) suggests that the second wave risk remains real and this could see policymakers adopt more cautious steps ahead in opening up their respective economies while US-China trade tensions remain an on-off event. Pair was last seen at 1228 levels. Daily momentum turned bullish while RSI is rising. Risks skewed to the upside. Resistance at 1230, 1235 levels. Immediate support at 1222 (21, 50 DMAs).
AUDSGD – Mixed Signals. Cross traded largely ranged yesterday but is on net modestly lower than yesterday morning. Last seen at 0.9160. Technical signals are mixed at this point. The 21-dma has crossed the 100-dma to the upside, usually a bullish signal. But we also note that recent highs in the AUDSGD are matched by lower highs in MACD forest (a bearish divergence signal, similar to AUDUSD). On net, key support could be seen at the lower bound of the rising trend channel, at around 0.9100 (also 100-dma). But a break of the support at around 0.9100 could open the way towards 0.8920.
USDCNH – Supported. USDCNH traded with a modest upward bias yesterday. It touched 7.0950 at one point but retraced upwards subsequently alongside a recovery in broad dollar strength, as markets focused on Powell’s dire view of the economy in his speech last night. Last seen at 7.1092. After earlier news of Republican senators introducing a bill allowing Trump to sanction China over any refusal to cooperate on Covid-19 origin investigations, there are now reports that the US federal employee retirement fund may also scrap its plan to shift its international component into an index that includes Chinese companies, voiding US$4.5bn of potential inflows into Chinese equities. These developments add on to market chatter earlier that some of “China’s trade insiders” had raised the notion of voiding the US-China trade pact and renegotiating a new one that could be more favourable for China. Emerging US-China tensions could keep the pair supported in the interim. Back on the chart, support is seen around 7.0790 (50-dma) before the 200-dma at 7.0450 and then at 7.02. Resistance at 7.1680. The CFETS RMB TWI has started to decline. As we cautioned over the past few days, CNHTHB has continued to fall. Last seen around 4.5114, this cross could continue to head lower towards 4.5070 (38.2% fibo retracement of the Jan-Mar rally), before the next at 4.4610 (50%). Resistance at 4.5590 (21-dma), 4.5800 (50-DMA). The 21-dma has crossed the 50-dma to the downside, a bearish signal. Bearish momentum intact.
14 May 2020 7
this pair has little directional cues at this point. Some bearish signals forming with 21-dma poised to cut the 50-dma to the downside. Even so, the sense of optimism in the global markets may fade in light of potential risk of US-China tensions and seemingly buoyant USD. Support around 75.30 before 74.50. We may continue to see price action remaining within these key levels. WPI today before trade for Apr on Fri.
1M USDIDR NDF – Ranged. NDF traded largely ranged yesterday. Last seen at 15,020. Portfolio outflow pressures appear to have eased from March, with dollar bond issuances recently seeing healthy bids. MTD (as of 12 May) net bond outflows are at a modest –US$346mn, compared to massive –US$7.5bn in Mar. A BI official had said earlier that the central bank would be amenable to IDR strengthening past 15,000 in the interim, in line with expectations of narrowing current account deficit. Nonetheless, on-the-ground macro developments are less rosy. A top business lobby estimated that most businesses in Indonesia only have enough cash to continue operating till end-April with little to no sales under the current large scale social restrictions. Covid contagion is still not tapering off in a meaningful manner. Bearish momentum on daily chart shows signs of waning, while stochastics are stuck near oversold conditions. On net, ranged trading around 15,000 (61.8% fibo retracement from Jan low to Apr high) may be likely in the interim, with down-moves somewhat constrained given remaining risk factors. Support at 14,770 (100-DMA), before 14450 (76.4% fibo). Resistance at 15420 (50.0% fibo), 15850 (38.2% fibo). Trade data due Fri.
USDTHB – Bearish Momentum Holding. Pair traded ranged yesterday. Last seen at 32.07. Phuket is seeking permission from authorities to re-open the airports, ports and permanent road access to the mainland, but consensus is growing that tourism flows may only recover in 2021. Markets seem to be looking past poor macro data at this point. FX which were hit most in Feb-Mar, which include THB, may see more support relative to peers, as the world prepares to return (slowly) to a more normalized state. Bearish momentum in the pair seems to be holding, even as stochastics remain in oversold conditions. Support nearby at 32.00 (38.2% fibo retracement from Jan low to Apr high), before 31.60 (50.0% fibo). Resistance at 32.40 (21-DMA), 33.20 (Apr high).
14 May 2020 8
14 May 2020 9
Malaysia Fixed Income
Rates IndicatorsMGS Previous Bus. Day Yesterday’s Close Change (bps)
3YR MH 3/23 2.38 2.33 -5 5YR MO 9/25 2.62 2.53 -9 7YR MK 5/27 2.76 2.82 +6 10YR MO 8/29 2.84 2.87 +3 15YR MS 7/34 3.07 3.13 +6 20YR MY 5/40 3.41 3.40 -1 30YR MZ 7/48 3.75 3.78 +3 IRS 6-months 2.23 2.23 - 9-months 2.21 2.21 - 1-year 2.21 2.21 - 3-year 2.23 2.23 - 5-year 2.31 2.30 -1 7-year 2.40 2.40 - 10-year 2.62 2.63 +1 Source: Maybank KE *Indicative levels
Global: Export Growth (% YoY,
MGS had mixed performance with yield movements in the range of +6bps to -9bps. The front end outperformed amid better buying, with 3y and 5y yields down 5bps and 9bps respectively. Long ends were better sold due to profit taking and yields ended 3-6bps higher for the 15y and 30y benchmarks. GII benchmarks largely untraded and stood pat in yields. Thursday will see a reopening of 15y GII in a total size of MYR5b (MYR3.5b auction + MYR1.5b private placement). MYR IRS market was tepid and rates either stayed flat or marginally lower. The 5y IRS was dealt at 2.30%, while other rates had either single-sided or wide quotes. 3M KLIBOR remained the same at 2.30%. PDS space stayed fairly active but in contrast with the previous day, there was better buying at the front end and belly. GG front end and belly yields lowered 1-3bps. Supply technical has been supportive of local corporate bonds, especially the AAA sector as spreads have tightened in the past one month. AAAs had better bids and Rantau and Telekom short end bonds were taken at 2-5bps lower yields. AA space saw subdued price movements. Penang Port and BGSM bonds dealt with the latter 3bps firmer.
14 May 2020 10
Singapore Fixed Income
Rates IndicatorsSGS Previous Bus. Day Yesterday’s Close Change (bps)
2YR 0.38 0.34 -4 5YR 0.52 0.49 -3 10YR 0.87 0.79 -8 15YR 1.07 1.01 -6 20YR 1.21 1.16 -5 30YR 1.22 1.16 -6 Source: MAS
SGD IRS were marked down lower again at the open as risk-off sentiment drove USD rates lower overnight. The curve flattened with rates lower by 1-7bps initially. Better paying interest and a mild recovery in sentiment later led IRS to retrace slightly and rates closed 1-5bps lower, with the curve still flatter. SGS curve bull-flattened as well and was lower by 3-8bps amid thin trading.
Asian credits continued to see demand from investors in Asia. Spreads tightened 3-7bps, led by China tech names such as Tencent, Alibaba and Baidu. Weibo outperformed as it tightened 20-25bps, aided by short covering and little supply in secondary. Newer China issuances, however, saw some profit taking as Xiaomi and Sinope 2030s widened 5-8bps. Korea and Japan IGs were firmer amid better buying up to the 5y tenor. Asian sovereign space was mixed. INDON spreads tightened/ prices unchanged while new 10y PHILIPs saw profit taking, though after it had already rallied almost 3pts from reoffer price..
14 May 2020 11
Indonesia Fixed Income
Rates IndicatorsIDR Gov’t Bonds Previous Bus. Day Yesterday’s Close Change (bp) 1YR 5.56 5.56 (0.00) 3YR 6.94 6.94 0.00 5YR 7.28 7.28 0.00 10YR 7.88 7.89 0.00 15YR 8.19 8.19 0.00 20YR 8.22 8.22 0.00 30YR 8.38 8.38 0.01
* Source: Bloomberg, Maybank Indonesia
Global: Export Growth (% YoY,signif
Indonesian government bonds were relative flat yesterday. Yesterday, the government also didn’t held the sovereign notes auction after obtaining Rp26.975 trillion from both the conventional bond auction and the private placement issuances. It’s quite enough for the government to achieve its biweekly auction target by around Rp35-45 trillion.
Meanwhile, we also saw persistent outflow by the foreign investors in the domestic bond market. The global investors have negative response to the emerging market during recent Coronavirus outbreak. It indicated that the local market players, led by Bank Indonesia, have strong contribution to keep maintaining the local bond market. Foreigners hold Rp917.16 trillion of Indonesian government bonds until 12 May-20. It equals with 30.28% of total government bonds that have been issued. Indonesian bond market is relative flat so far, also driven by weak possibility of incoming negative interest policy implementation by the Federal Reserve. Investors have speculated that the U.S. Federal Reserve may push its benchmark overnight interest rate into negative territory to help offset the economic devastation of the coronavirus pandemic. The U.S. President Donald Trump has said doing so would be a “Gift” to the U.S. economy. Fed officials led by Chairman Jerome Powell have consistently opposed it. Powell has repeated pushed back against the idea of negative rates. During the last recession, which ended in 2009, Fed officials considered a variety of tools and chose not to deploy them, Powell has pointed out in the past. “We do not see negative policy rates as likely to be an appropriate policy response here in the U.S.,” he stated. In more recent comments, Fed colleagues have agreed without completely ruling out the option. On May 11, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said: “At best, we’d have to study it more, but I don’t anticipate that being a tool we would be using in the U.S.” On the same day, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said “I am not a big fan of going into the negative rate territory.”
Going forward, we expect that investors are seen to be oriented towards short-term investment strategies. Sell on Rally for recommendations. Some of the data that are of primary concern from the global are the situation of the development of Coronavirus and its vaccines, as well as the easing of lockdowns in Europe and some US states. In addition, the geopolitical developments between the US and China must also be monitored.
Analysts
Myrdal Gunarto
14 May 2020 12
Equity Indices and Key Commodities
V a lue % C ha nge D o w 23,247.97 -2.17 N a s da q 8,863.17 -1.55 N ik k e i 2 2 5 20,267.05 -0.49 F T S E 5,904.05 -1.51 A us t ra lia A S X 2 0 0 5,421.85 0.35 S inga po re S t ra it s T im e s 2,572.01 -0.61
Kua la Lum pur
C o m po s it e 1,397.13 1.25 J a k a rt a C o m po s it e 4,554.36 -0.75 P hilippine s C o m po s it e 5,626.25 -0.45 T a iwa n T A IE X 10,938.27 0.54 Ko re a KO S P I 1,940.42 0.95 S ha ngha i C o m p Inde x 2,898.05 0.22 H o ng Ko ng H a ng S e ng 24,180.30 -0.27 India S e ns e x 32,008.61 2.03 N ym e x C rude O il WT I 25.29 -1.90 C o m e x G o ld 1,716.40 0.56 R e ut e rs C R B Inde x 120.63 -1.63 M B B KL 7.39 -0.67
Foreign Exchange: Daily Levels
EUR/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD GBP/USD USD/CNH NZD/USD EUR/JPY AUD/JPY
R2 1.0926 107.56 0.6558 1.2391 7.1272 0.6141 116.6867 70.1187 R1 1.0872 107.29 0.6507 1.2311 7.1196 0.6066 116.2433 69.6063
Current 1.0811 106.90 0.6428 1.2207 7.1118 0.5973 115.5600 68.7100
S1 1.0788 106.75 0.6421 1.2181 7.0997 0.5948 115.5233 68.7373 S2 1.0758 106.48 0.6386 1.2131 7.0874 0.5905 115.2467 68.3807
USD/SGD USD/MYR USD/IDR USD/PHP USD/THB EUR/SGD CNY/MYR SGD/MYR
R2 1.4249 4.3463 14908 50.3490 32.2143 1.5429 0.6369 3.0683 R1 1.4225 4.3370 14886 50.3080 32.1497 1.5395 0.6236 3.0605
Current 1.4212 4.3400 14895 50.3900 32.1050 1.5364 0.6179 3.0542
S1 1.4157 4.3230 14854 50.2410 32.0167 1.5339 0.5976 3.0479 S2 1.4113 4.3183 14844 50.2150 31.9483 1.5317 0.5850 3.0431 *Values calculated based on pivots, a formula that projects support/resistance for the day.
Rates Current (%) Upcoming CB
Meeting MBB Expectation
MAS SGD 3-Month
SIBOR 0.6543 Apr-20 Easing
BNM O/N Policy Rate 2.00 7/7/2020 Easing
BI 7-Day Reverse Repo
Rate 4.50 5/19/2020 Easing
BOT 1-Day Repo 0.75 5/20/2020 Easing
BSP O/N Reverse Repo 2.75 6/25/2020 Easing
CBC Discount Rate 1.13 6/18/2020 Easing
HKMA Base Rate 0.50 - Neutral
PBOC 1Y Lending Rate 4.35 - Easing
RBI Repo Rate 4.40 6/5/2020 Easing
BOK Base Rate 0.75 5/28/2020 Easing
Fed Funds Target Rate 0.25 6/11/2020 Easing
ECB Deposit Facility
Rate -0.50 6/4/2020 Easing
BOE Official Bank Rate 0.10 6/18/2020 Easing
RBA Cash Rate Target 0.25 6/2/2020 Easing
RBNZ Official Cash Rate 0.25 6/24/2020 Easing
BOJ Rate -0.10 6/16/2020 Easing
BoC O/N Rate 0.25 6/3/2020 Easing
14 May 2020 13
MYR Bonds Trades Details
MGS & GII Coupon Maturity Date (RM ‘m) Volume Last Done Day High Day Low
MGS 6/2013 3.889% 31.07.2020 3.889% 31-Jul-20 211 2.062 2.062 2.062 MGS 3/2015 3.659% 15.10.2020 3.659% 15-Oct-20 121 2.08 2.08 2.06 MGS 5/2017 3.441% 15.02.2021 3.441% 15-Feb-21 6 2.119 2.119 2.119 MGS 1/2011 4.16% 15.07.2021 4.160% 15-Jul-21 1,183 2.135 2.135 2.08 MGS 3/2014 4.048% 30.09.2021 4.048% 30-Sep-21 319 2.169 2.169 2.118 MGS 4/2016 3.620% 30.11.2021 3.620% 30-Nov-21 84 2.18 2.18 2.093 MGS 1/2017 3.882% 10.03.2022 3.882% 10-Mar-22 223 2.235 2.235 2.188 MGS 2/2015 3.795% 30.09.2022 3.795% 30-Sep-22 194 2.29 2.295 2.248 MGS 3/2013 3.480% 15.03.2023 3.480% 15-Mar-23 385 2.324 2.342 2.306 MGS 2/2018 3.757% 20.04.2023 3.757% 20-Apr-23 410 2.361 2.361 2.354 MGS 1/2016 3.800% 17.08.2023 3.800% 17-Aug-23 371 2.372 2.474 2.372 MGS 3/2019 3.478% 14.06.2024 3.478% 14-Jun-24 252 2.467 2.536 2.467 MGS 1/2014 4.181% 15.07.2024 4.181% 15-Jul-24 43 2.478 2.576 2.478 MGS 2/2017 4.059% 30.09.2024 4.059% 30-Sep-24 1 2.572 2.572 2.572 MGS 1/2018 3.882% 14.03.2025 3.882% 14-Mar-25 40 2.554 2.554 2.554 MGS 1/2015 3.955% 15.09.2025 3.955% 15-Sep-25 285 2.582 2.66 2.524 MGS 3/2011 4.392% 15.04.2026 4.392% 15-Apr-26 5 2.69 2.69 2.69 MGS 1/2019 3.906% 15.07.2026 3.906% 15-Jul-26 61 2.735 2.788 2.727 MGS 3/2016 3.900% 30.11.2026 3.900% 30-Nov-26 6 2.805 2.805 2.805 MGS 3/2007 3.502% 31.05.2027 3.502% 31-May-27 363 2.765 2.846 2.763 MGS 4/2017 3.899% 16.11.2027 3.899% 16-Nov-27 11 2.827 2.885 2.827 MGS 5/2013 3.733% 15.06.2028 3.733% 15-Jun-28 9 2.915 2.957 2.915 MGS 2/2019 3.885% 15.08.2029 3.885% 15-Aug-29 295 2.869 2.922 2.858 MGS 4/2013 3.844% 15.04.2033 3.844% 15-Apr-33 10 3.28 3.28 3.28 MGS 3/2018 4.642% 07.11.2033 4.642% 07-Nov-33 19 3.268 3.268 3.268 MGS 4/2019 3.828% 05.07.2034 3.828% 05-Jul-34 7 3.178 3.178 3.132 MGS 4/2015 4.254% 31.05.2035 4.254% 31-May-35 4 3.31 3.31 3.31 MGS 4/2018 4.893% 08.06.2038 4.893% 08-Jun-38 42 3.462 3.474 3.462 MGS 5/2019 3.757% 22.05.2040 3.757% 22-May-40 1 3.394 3.394 3.394 MGS 5/2018 4.921% 06.07.2048 4.921% 06-Jul-48 25 3.778 3.814 3.763 GII MURABAHAH 2/2015 3.799% 27.08.2020 3.799% 27-Aug-20 5 2.04 2.04 2.04
PROFIT-BASED GII 3/2011 30.04.2021 4.170% 30-Apr-21 20 2.091 2.091 2.091
GII MURABAHAH 2/2016 3.743% 26.08.2021 3.743% 26-Aug-21 2 2.137 2.137 2.137 GII MURABAHAH 4/2018 3.729% 31.03.2022 3.729% 31-Mar-22 71 2.256 2.296 2.235 GII MURABAHAH 3/2017 3.948% 14.04.2022 3.948% 14-Apr-22 140 2.257 2.257 2.257 GII MURABAHAH 1/2016 4.390% 07.07.2023 4.390% 07-Jul-23 20 2.398 2.398 2.398
PROFIT-BASED GII 2/2013 31.10.2023 3.493% 31-Oct-23 10 2.411 2.411 2.411
14 May 2020 14 GII MURABAHAH 6/2019 4.119%
30.11.2034 4.119% 30-Nov-34 10 3.049 3.049 3.049
Total 5,841
Sources: BPAM
MYR Bonds Trades Details
PDS Rating Coupon Maturity Date (RM ‘m) Volume Done Last High Day Low Day PASB IMTN (GG) 4.42% 05.02.2021 - Issue No. 14 GG 4.420% 05-Feb-21 10 2.196 2.196 2.196 PRASARANA IMTN 4.29% 24.02.2023 - Series 7 GG 4.290% 24-Feb-23 20 2.473 2.497 2.473 DANAINFRA IMTN 4.100% 03.05.2023 - Tranche No 43 GG 4.100% 03-May-23 70 2.496 2.509 2.496 DANAINFRA IMTN 4.530% 12.11.2025 - Tranche No 38 GG 4.530% 12-Nov-25 5 2.791 2.791 2.791 PRASARANA IMTN 4.620% 08.03.2028 - Series 5 GG 4.620% 08-Mar-28 20 2.98 2.98 2.98 DANAINFRA IMTN 4.360% 12.02.2029 - TRANCHE 6 GG 4.360% 12-Feb-29 15 3.071 3.071 3.071 DANAINFRA IMTN 3.930% 27.11.2034 - Tranche No 93 GG 3.930% 27-Nov-34 50 3.38 3.38 3.38 RANTAU IMTN 0% 19.10.2022 - Tranche No 8 AAA (S) 4.570% 19-Oct-22 20 2.746 2.753 2.746 PUTRAJAYA IMTN 28.07.2023 SERIES 11 TRANCHE 014 AAA IS 4.410% 28-Jul-23 20 2.821 2.821 2.818 PUTRAJAYA IMTN 19.09.2023 SERIES 7 TRANCHE 010 AAA IS 4.550% 19-Sep-23 10 2.83 2.83 2.827
MERCEDES MTN 1461D 28.11.2023 AAA (S) 3.570% 28-Nov-23 20 2.908 2.923 2.908
TELEKOM IMTN 4.820% 21.03.2024 AAA 4.820% 21-Mar-24 10 2.911 2.911 2.911
PUTRAJAYA IMTN 11.04.2024 AAA IS 4.350% 11-Apr-24 20 2.886 2.886 2.884
TELEKOM IMTN 4.738% 27.06.2024 AAA 4.738% 27-Jun-24 10 2.94 2.94 2.94
PUTRAJAYA IMTN 29.07.2024 SERIES 12 TRANCHE 015 AAA IS 4.480% 29-Jul-24 10 2.938 2.941 2.938
TELEKOM IMTN 4.550% 07.10.2024 AAA 4.550% 07-Oct-24 25 2.959 2.959 2.959
MANJUNG IMTN 4.360% 25.11.2024 - Series 1 (9) AAA 4.360% 25-Nov-24 10 2.961 2.961 2.958 SURIA KLCC IMTN 4.730% 31.12.2024 - Issue No. 1 AAA 4.730% 31-Dec-24 10 2.942 2.942 2.939
PUTRAJAYA IMTN 11.04.2025 AAA IS 4.400% 11-Apr-25 10 2.969 2.969 2.966
PUTRAJAYA IMTN 26.05.2025 SERIES 13 TRANCHE 016 AAA IS 4.500% 26-May-25 10 3.008 3.01 3.008
TNB NE 4.180% 29.05.2026 AAA IS 4.180% 29-May-26 10 3.126 3.133 3.126
SCC IMTN 4.410% 18.12.2020 AA1 4.410% 18-Dec-20 30 2.793 2.836 2.793
CMS IMTN 4.800% 05.05.2022 - Series No 1 AA3 4.800% 05-May-22 10 3.2 3.228 3.2
BGSM MGMT IMTN 5.450% 28.06.2024 - Issue No 10 AA3 5.450% 28-Jun-24 10 3.306 3.311 3.306
SPG IMTN 4.910% 31.10.2025 AA- IS 4.910% 31-Oct-25 10 3.447 3.461 3.447
BGSM MGMT IMTN 4.130% 03.12.2027 - Issue No 18 AA3 4.130% 03-Dec-27 30 3.501 3.501 3.498
AMBANK MTN 3652D 23.2.2028 AA3 5.230% 23-Feb-28 2 4.302 4.677 4.302
AISL IMTN 5.230% 23.02.2028 AA3 5.230% 23-Feb-28 1 4.402 4.803 4.402
PENANGPORT IMTN 4.480% 27.12.2029 - Tranche No 2 AA- IS 4.480% 27-Dec-29 40 3.699 3.711 3.699 PENANGPORT IMTN 4.680% 26.12.2031 - Tranche No 3 AA- IS 4.680% 26-Dec-31 20 3.89 3.891 3.89
DRB-HICOM IMTN 4.150% 12.12.2022 A+ IS 4.150% 12-Dec-22 10 4.46 4.5 4.46
CIMB 5.800% Perpetual Capital Securities - T1 A1 5.800% 25-May-16 1 3.307 4.382 3.307 CIMB 5.500% Perpetual Capital Securities - T2 A1 5.500% 25-May-16 1 3.52 4.339 3.52 CIMB 4.880% Perpetual Capital Securities - T4 A1 4.880% 25-May-16 1 4.83 4.83 4.83
MBSBBANK IMTN 5.250% 19.12.2031 A3 5.250% 19-Dec-31 1 4.579 4.799 4.579
YNHP 6.850% PERPETUAL SECURITIES - TRANCHE NO 1 NR(LT) 6.850% 07-Aug-19 1 7.233 7.233 7.076
Total 552
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DISCLAIMER
This report is for information purposes only and under no circumstances is it to be considered or intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities or financial instruments referred to herein, or an offer or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any investment strategy. Investors should note that income from such securities or financial instruments, if any, may fluctuate and that each security’s or financial instrument’s price or value may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, the financial situation and the particular needs of persons who may receive or read this report. Investors should therefore seek financial, legal and other advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities and/or financial instruments or the investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but such sources have not been independently verified by Malayan Banking Berhad and/or its affiliates and related corporations (collectively, “Maybank”) and consequently no representation is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this report by Maybank and it should not be relied upon as such. Accordingly, no liability can be accepted for any direct, indirect or consequential losses or damages that may arise from the use or reliance of this report. Maybank and its officers, directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees may from time to time have positions or be materially interested in the securities and/or financial instruments referred to herein and may further act as market maker or have assumed an underwriting commitment or deal with such securities and/or financial instruments and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking, advisory and other services for or relating to those companies whose securities are mentioned in this report. Any information or opinions or recommendations contained herein are subject to change at any time, without prior notice.
This report may contain forward looking statements which are often but not always identified by the use of words such as “anticipate”, “believe”, “estimate”, “intend”, “plan”, “expect”, “forecast”, “predict” and “project” and statements that an event or result “may”, “will”, “can”, “should”, “could” or “might” occur or be achieved and other similar expressions. Such forward looking statements are based on assumptions made and information currently available to us and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those expressed in any forward looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue relevance on these forward looking statements. Maybank expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise any such forward looking statements to reflect new information, events or circumstances after the date of this publication or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events.
14 May 2020 16
Published by:
Malayan Banking Berhad
(Incorporated In Malaysia)
Foreign Exchange Sales
Singapore Indonesia Malaysia
Saktiandi Supaat Juniman Azman Amiruddin Shah bin Mohamad Shah Head, FX Research Chief Economist, Indonesia Head, Sales-Malaysia, GB-Global Markets [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
(+65) 6320 1379 (+62) 21 2922 8888 ext 29682 (+60) 03-2173 4188
Christopher Wong Myrdal Gunarto Singapore
Senior FX Strategist Industry Analyst Janice Loh Ai Lin [email protected] [email protected] Co-Head of Sales, Singapore
(+65) 6320 1347 (+62) 21 2922 8888 ext 29695 [email protected] (+65) 6536 1336 Fiona Lim
Senior FX Strategist Joanna Leong Wan Yi
[email protected] Co-Head of Sales, Singapore
(+65) 6320 1374 [email protected]
Yanxi Tan
(+65) 6320 1511
FX Strategist Indonesia
[email protected] Endang Yulianti Rahayu
(+65) 6320 1378 Head of Sales, Indonesia
[email protected] (+62) 21 29936318 or
Fixed Income (+62) 2922 8888 ext 29611
Malaysia
Winson Phoon Wai Kien Shanghai
Fixed Income Analyst Joyce Ha
[email protected] Treasury Sales Manager
(+65) 6231 5831 [email protected]
(+86) 21 28932588 Se Tho Mun Yi
Fixed Income Analyst Hong Kong
[email protected] Joanne Lam Sum Sum
(+60) 3 2074 7606 Head of Corporate Sales Hong Kong
[email protected] (852) 3518 8790
