Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission

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tGbCG2 1oa

LGgJ Clm tLOW

L2 /J MTçp

.LO JoM 112 00Jc gç flJG 6C0U0WA12LG2bOIJ2G O G WOLIGçgLA

2OCJ( TV

t6boLç 2r1P2GdnGLJT? SLG 2çT2çTCJJ? 2TdVT;TCIJ COIJAGIJcTOIJT TGAGT2

2JJOM

tot piq ri.

c

;TärIL62

G36 t62bou2G2 iiq TT

MG

dr1LçGtJ71 qgg xq ;o AgtTon2 2OLCGE 2wbJG bGtroq2 yjcporidp MG qo LJO woucwTA qgç ts dnrçG coLJ2T2cGuc MTcP JJ6

bcçGLiJ2

O2GLA6 p 0G2 TV

J,JJG2G

bgççGtV2

LG

2fnLJWLTGg POAG g2 1 JjJG2G

LG2I1T2 TV

0; pG TUTcT9T poc gç

co

7Ggt2

one'

JJG

r1IJq2

T2 G22GVçrJA pc

qGAc0V

0 4JG nIJq2 L2G t0W Tc2 p2GJuG bçp T2 OUT?

dngLcGL oL

1622 JJt6G CO t0111 woVcp2 47V6 CM6TAG WOIJCJJ2

g;çt JJ6 boITcA

TL7IJOAgCTO1J

JJ6

LT2TLJd 2pLb?

TVTTJJ7 JJG

rn3q2 LG pGa1tJ2

CO

tTT

btGcTbTcorr2TA gtcGL

(10)

8

E6 P GA6tdG 0A61 JJ6 2JJOt-C6tW

G9J

tçG P6C91126 bLTcG2 t6 2cTc)c?i

uA2r o wougL? boTTc?

yccotqTud

uqtq 2cotA'

flJor1ap

3'

uq 2 UI9LG p? C2 ]-

Y2 cOu2TcGIJc

J6

coIJA6ucroIJg

Ill U(TWGL Ot MgA2' 1JJ6 PGP9ATOL Ot flJG 6COUOWA 2OMIJ TU ETd(7L62 I

D062 COIJA6UITOIJ9T

o

g

WOIJGçt7i boJTcA

?pocjc

Txeq

I621wGUc pA pfl2TJJG22G2 9bb6L2 io tG2boIJq AGr.A

rarrEG) GdnTbwGuc TUAG2cWGI,c

gcconuc

t uGgL]A g]J o fIG

qGCIJG L7

OJJ6t

O 2bsxJqua

(Cç

fl•

jU

TIJcGtG2TUa tG2rlJc (iJoç pow

p3

qGc]T1362 OTTOMTIJà g

WOIJGçgLA

cT8pcGUTIJd priç

g

at6gcGt

TLI OAGt9JT GCOIJOW]C gccTArA) LTanIG 3 2JJ0M2 P(T2T1J622 x6q TIJAG2cwGIJc

g

2TWTJL 4OS]

cOuctrprTcrou fIG qoicnu OMTIJd

cpGt LdGL 2pr.G

(ouqnt9pJG2 tgcc pA WtICJJ 1G22 T' bGtCGIJçgäG cr.w2

pu

qntpe qo pnç cpGA

IJoJJqr1tGpG2'

MJrCp jeo

COIJctTprlcG 2TaLITtTC9LIcTA

o

fIG jj

u

pi- qwuq

qGcflIJG TU T"T q6wLq

I4GX Tu wbotcucG

gt6 cournut qr1t.p6e iiq

OTTOMTIJd g WoUG4tA

crapcGurud

uq gccornjc

ot g

T9LäG

bgtc ot fIG rucJ

2bGLTqTIJa

2 uocq pJ

poAG' tG2qGuc

ruAG2cwGuc

qtob2 2pthA

wOIJGcgA

coIJcLgccTOIJ ot 2WG wbotsx cowbou6zJç o btpwc6 qowG2çc

TGAGT2 giq pA CDETh

ETdJ6

3 2JJ0M2 fIG LG2bOIJ2G2 O g

fIG

wduçrrqse o cpLYäG2 cowbGrGp6' fIG CDB cowboIJGua

LG

jo TGt

T"

Ay'

GfIor1ap qqiua fIGW T" COWpTIJ9cTOU2 dTAG2 AGLA 2puflSt LG211Jc2

jo wj

p3

fIG

AY rq TI' ETdnLG p J626 26tTG2

qqq

gg g CTWG fIG J4GXc' MG GXbJOLG pc JJGbbGIJ2 MJJGIJ MG pJcJrlqG ALO11 COWbOIJGIJç2 o

2nwwLTGq

e gcc

(11)

a

2bGUqIJd 9AG pi ptq co bTU qot.ux GwbTtTcgTTA

EranEG2 1-3 XJO qonpc pGTb3 co GXbT9TLT Mp?

topn 6ttGC2 ot pJcGtG2c tç€

JIJ t9G2 uq WOAGWGIJ43 TIJ 20W6 coWbOL?XJç2

O

2bGUqpJ O2GLAG TU

pcc co ctGLiq (ETdtItG boot cottG2bouqGucG u guq1Jc pG1MGGLJ cp9IJdG?

qGcuG

ouj-A ILl betoq qntLrd MpTCJJ TucGtG2c tgçGe 9L6 9TTTLld 2JJ9thTA

tT2G

qntia C6 tTc 3- W011fl32 9U6L 9 WOUGc9t? cTdpc6uTua flJGA pGàTIJ co

PGMGGU 2 9LT

f

WOL72 9GL fJJG

2JJOC)C (ETantG 3) IIJAGLICOLTG2 9CcIT9ITA P11T)C 0 JJG tG2bOU2G Ot P2T pxGq TIJAG2cWGLc OCCflL2 qI'ILIJd cJJG

b6tToq

t69C ITUCTT

gçGE w02ç O

TucG624—t9cG Gtt6C 2 baç ot Gx9wbTG

9tGt cJJG 2JJOC)C

)G 2OWG

rwbotcguc

cowbouGIJç2 o 2bGuqIJd go uoç pGdIJ

co

cLgu2rcotA

ci

'c 12

ATtn9TTA pc c°

c 8

a wollcp2

2bflCG

92aoC9c6q

cp 9LY rnJ9IJTcb96q

woIJGç9ti cTapcGIJTlJa

12 T9L.6TA

2scoI.Jq r JJG •22f16

o wi-u1 2 2}JOMIJ

pA ErdntG 1' IP TU46t62c-L9c6

2cLoJJa

GGCJ2 ou

A9ton2 cowbouGuc2

o

bt]-A9çG2bGuqnJd

qTq 69ET16L' GWbTLTCST 2cnqG2 9A6 iJoc AbTC9TTA

orrnq COWWGIS2IIE9cGTA

IJqnCG

tGTGcTAGTA 2WSTT WOIGWGLJç2 nj obGzJ—wgtGc

TIJcGtG2c t9462

prç

92 MG

cJjG

tGg]

6COIJOWA T2 bOMGLr1TTA gGCcGq pA wOuGcgtA bOITCA TLJUOA9cTOIJ2 cwc

w9ducnqG o flJG boTTc? GttGCc MG IJq

wuA

OçpGL tG2G9LCGL2 9AG orniq cpc

ric

JJGtG

9EG 20W6 rwbotcuc bfl1G2

ETt2c 9WOLYà JJG2G 72

tG2bOIJ2G2 c° WoIJGcgtA

borcA

2JJOC)2

o gdàtGdgc6 q€wuq

-- qnebAa

191d6 V5B9GIJcTA 20 COO T2

qilt9p7 2bGzjqnLlà -—

ct9qcoL19JA

cporiapc

drfl-c)c tG2bOIJ2G

o ijg

qGwuq (ETantG )

9L6 COu2r2cGuc MTqJ c1J12 2CGU9tTO

O

CDb qcot ILl

M)CG O J6

WOUGC9tA coucL9CcTou (ETdrTtG I) 9IJ JJG

(12)

To

Wgt}CGç2' MS sxbscc O O2GtAG

MGqaG PGIMGQIJ JS CO4

O fflJ2

L26q

GIJtOCGWGIJc

O

couçtgcç --

TIJ4GGt6

MTJ JG

2WOOCJJ tnIJCcTOUTLJd

O

IJLJCJ

bLGurr2S: MPGLIGAGt ttTCcTOIJ2 —— 2(TC g3 TwbGLtGcc TIJtOL1UTOIJ Ot CO2cJ? nuqstApsd ont coucsbclou o cps ctsqç C9ZJIJ6J •2 ;oJJoMTLla p92rC

dbe ru

ctgqTcoug 2çot?

JJJG W6c}JIJT2IU2 COTTGCcTA6TA )UOMJJ

9 flJ6 ctGqrc

cpuus psjb

TTT p1

c6L102

O

cOuAGucrOuJ

rucGtG2c-LgcS

(uGocJg22rcgJ coc-o;-cbcj) scç

uq

cOwbo2TcTOu

o

6COUOW?t1 tGbOIJ2S WOIJGçt7

boTtc7

2OC}C2 2OJGT? TU

M6

JAG

gtdsisq

c qcnç €xbjpi

wducrqG'

ruqua

LW ctGqc cpXJXJ6J

o NOu6ct7

Jtu2w22Ou

2tf1Cf!tG2

TIJAGWGUc

pGJJAOt poriq qrtt

111

cwT t7t

boJTc? gcçroIJ2 ic T2 uoc iwsqgcs7t OpATOII2 Mp? tG2Tq6IJcTJ siiq piT2TIJG22 pfl2711622 tflCf1tG2

qos

uoç 26GW o p€ WfTC scçsq pA wouGçtA

Gq yç JJG

2W6

cTW6

ocpst

WOt

Ab6

O oIJd-TA6q

TIJ/tG2çWGLJ

t69J TucGtG2c

LgcG2

ijoc 2JJOt-6tIU

t62

WO2 qtscçjA ujrisucsq

pA

(gccotqrud

4JJ6 COIJAGucToIJI IVGM)

ponq

G WO2 2GIJ2TcTAG o

jo1J-brisjrud

pGC1T2G t62Tq6uc

TuAS2cwSuc2

9t6 4AbTC]JA AGtA oua—AGq uq

wousçtA

boj-cA ]2

ou L621-q6LçSr TIJA62WGLT

(ETdntG 3)

JpT2 uqiiä 12

AGc

wo2ç tbq (uq T' b6tcGuçdG c6LW2 pA 9L cps 2çtolJaG2ç) sscç o

2}JOtGt 11A62——20WG

O pJA6uçOtG2 iq COU2UGL 1PTG2

ot GxwbG

cp c poriq ps

woç

pxsbc ou

2b6uqIJ8 011 22G2 MTcP WOIJG42rLA

boJTcA r wo2ç qtGcc 6;tecc2 011 2Ot-6tIU t9G2 oiq 266W

(13)

IT

LPG GjsUCG 26G CPIJZJGT T2 Oil cP6OtTCST btGqrcçTou jjgç

.LWG

GUCG 2JJG6c

CJJ9IJIJGT

COLI2flWGL

ppg7o% JflCG 2bGlJqud ou

jsonud 9iJ COU2flWGL qfTtGpjG2

tTTJJ2

2np2Gds76ufl'

MG MTTT qT2Cfl JOM

pe UJ?T2 wA

p

GxcGuqq

flJ626

CP9IJLJGT2 MOt)C Til cJJG

LG

O

Y a6c4Ou MG tOC(12 Oil

JG p5pArOE

o

L7G

MOtçp cpuuGj) uq

piflC

JGUqTUà

CUUG] Ill qG2CtpLJa }JOM

gcç]-ou2

9IJ GXGtL7GJ tPJG1JCG bLGwTrnu: cpG pjwc 2p664 cpGuI.IGJ (2ow6crwG2

JMO w€q1g11r2u12 JJAG GGIJ 2rTaaG2cGq GxbTgru CG TT'J)

GM6GIJ

WOUG9tA borc?

boy-cA

GttGC2 G46L

]2 bo2TpJG p?i

tGtGtGIJCG IUGtG2ç LGG2 gJ0116

bteunrrw

wA pG1b

6xbTu

2ctGIJdcpt TwTIJa' gijq

COWbO2çOLJ O

WOLIGçgtA

GXçGtIJg

TIJgIJCG btGWTJ7W JJJT2 COWbGWGLJçtA WOA6WGil TIJ JJ6

GX6tL1 TXJgIJCG

1J04 OuT? qJG aGIJGL

TGAGT

O

TLcGtG2c

tCG2 f7 GJ20 JG 2T6 0 cp

yccotqIJa O

GACcG9 O JJG Ct6qc CJJGLJIJGJ' WOUG4SLA bOTTC7 9ttGC2

tG2trccTAG CoAGIJgilc2 Ot

co]JcGt9 tGdnTtGwGuc2)

EG2cETCcTOU2 TU }J6

couctgcç •IJcGuqGq

cogpJ wotj ptq (tot GxwbJ6'

qJcotcoJ nJ flJG pOLtOMGt12 pGJJATOt flJgç 2GW tOW woLgJ

pggtq Ot LOW

pççet

nIrotwcroL1 porç 1c2 bto2bGcçe }J9IJ OG2

JJ6

TGIJq6L uq

CO2

ot

1J€WOU21 btGun-rmu

pgç

t62flT2 tOIU flJG ;cc

3JG OttOMGt IJGAcprA

cp€

GLJGt2 GXbGCçGq CO22 O GAg)r1gcTOIJ woLlTcoLTua' suq COTJGCflOiJ

pottoM6t2

yILIoIJä

cçot tGJ6C6 III JJG

Gxç6tLrgJ tTIJ9IJCG bLGwnniu StG

cw

btTUCbs-d6IJç bLOpJGW 1}' IXbTC9TTA 6X1242

GMGGU

GLIg

xctijg

p-iJLlcG btGwnrnu'

LGtTGC2 1P6

qGqMGrdpc CO22 g22ocrcGq MTCP

q6pç)

IJq qJG obbotcr1uTc7

C02ç O TLcGEU rnJq2

.LJJT2 MGqd6 MJJTCP MG

(14)

T5

€q borcA rcc

uoc

0UTA ic

rucc LG2

bct

pnç jo

.LJJ6 pJIJcG 66C CIJLJGJ

O

WolJGcgLA b0TTCA st1-a p6C91726 aprc

P'

t6Gt6IJC6

ugu)c% C6tCIGt IJq

crJCptc

(;otçjscowpJd) OttGL g q2Cs12Ou siq

uq

oçj.i gcCot q6wIJq2' uq Ofl2GO bntcp2G2 0; qnp uq pon2rud

tIOM AgtTgpJG2 O JtW21 qGC2OU3 C0IJCGrIJTLY8

XGq

TUAG2CW6UC TUAGUCOETG2 2slbbotCGq p? g MTqG tJJaG

0

6WbLC

MOE)C TTU)CTUd pJucG-apGGç

guq

cji-G6U LGGttG CO S2 JJG 11;uucj gccGJGt9çot1, pi bbtogcp p2 cji-G6U

2P66C2 ci wbJT;A uq btobagG

Pn2TUG22

C7tCJG g

bPGUOWGIJOLY CPC

exbjoç6q CpT2 qG9 gtàn6 GuqoaGuon2 bIOC7CTTCT WOAGWGJC2 IJ pOLLOM6L TIJAG2CWGUC giq 2bGIJqua qGcT2oL12 yIJ GXçGU2TAG JTCGtçfltG JJg2

dnjçA 0

poEtoMG21 2}JGGC2 2TWTJEJA 2JJOf1

g;;cc

CJ.GTt bEGWTnUJ uq JJfl2

CJJ6 OAGT

CGLW2 Ot c1Gqc flJC CpG7 C6 flCCflCTOU2 TIJ

2TLJCG pOtLOM6I2

TLYLJCTJ bO21çTOIJ 96Cç CPG GXCGEIJT

TU9IJCG

cpgC CY6A wgc

qot.w bg?wGu2

OtOMGL2

WG6C cGCIJ

t9CTO2

CpG7 bo2ç

uq\ot

r1IJqGL62

wiA

tgj—Motjq ;TIJguc9

(1CJ

CWG tGdgTEGus6rJç cwgC COflGLJ O atTgtgIJçGG CJJG

JTpJTCG2 2}J6

O62

T22r1G JJJT2

p2Tc TIJ2TäJJC

atGgCGI 0 W6E •IJAG2çWGIJ

bLO6Cç

ot bnIcpG ot p7t o;;GLTx.Jd

Gt

bOC6IJ COIJTTCC O TLYCGtG2C MTCJ CPG

GuqGt'

GTCJJGt

pA 2G7;_;IJgIJcrzsa g

g 2CtoLYdGE ;1-IJgucT bo2rCrou (dLGC6I IJGC

M0LCP) GiJgp)62 g

OLLOMGt O tGtTC6

COJCGtT

—— JOMGL CPG GXCGEIJgT

TUUC6 btwTnu1 2porqq

P

IIJCnTCTAGTA

q;pq ob6t9çouA

CG 2(7W 0;

dr1q

guq LUL}GCJG

;TL1IJcr9 bO2TçTOu

it btCTCfTL

CG

dtGgCGI

T

CJ6

poEtoMGt12 UGC MOLCJJ -—

(15)

13

rwq3)

GtOG2

JG tTLWI2 XJG MOtJ guq

OAGt WG 2 MG

11uucrud dgb1, (çp q76t6uc6 6MG6U

;tw 11262 IJq

201TtCG2

o

guq M9d6 bg?1u6IJ) qo vo qnç pj

2JJOL tfTI tG2rTTcTUa TUCt6S26 P.'

MTTT qGC1JG 14PT16 T42 IWLTOfl2 txq Ot dn3—xGq coc (picjriqpJd rucGtsç

(sTcpGt ot co2c-o-cbcJ ot pjuCG-2pGç L6g2o1J2) cp tTtw.2 tGAGUflG2

Cfl2C0W6t2 g WOIJGç9tt n-apcGIJTua tGqJTCG2 2b6uqIJa pA flJO2G C(72OW6L2

AT(762 •Isqt6ccJA CU26t g wurrcçntpid

-txu

btoqnc62

ot qot.weçtw

JTdPC WOIJ6CtA bOITCA IL&.. J2O

t6I1CG

U6 C3J tT0M2 uq cojjçtj

OCC!TLtGq ff1tTIJd CJJG

T8O2

P g U(TWpGE

o

xuJot

uqn2ctTgJGq

COITIJCtTG2

g 2TwTT2t bgççGtll O g22GC—btTcG p00W guq Pn21 Gsqud tG J1CCflCOIJ2

p9IJ)(2 COIJCtTpflçTIJd O

CWG GJ2flTIJd L6C622T01J

BOtTO 6c 91• (ra) 9LdrIG CC

226 AJt162 tGqflc6q CtGqCMOtçpJJG22 ot wuA 'b9LJ626 cotbotgçiolj2 iiq tG2flTC (g JGg2ç p.' bgtc) ot woL,GçgtA cTdpc6uTud i.'q CC

COb2G Ti.'

cgc CPG ctp O bgUG2G rLq 9IJq

GdtITc7t AJ(G2 P.' C6

18O2 M2 JJG

Afl6 O p€ pottoM6t12 COTJC6tJ

EOt GXWbJ6 WIJA

O26tAGt2

MorlJq dIGG g22OCT2CGq MTcp qGCTLTTIJd

22G

bLTCG2' MJJTCJJ gwoijd

oçpt

CPTIJä2

JtTIJ)C flJ6

g MG pOM

pGJory10

36couq tr2Jd T11C6t62c tG2 9t6 2120 CAbTC9TTA

WOIJ6C2LA

bojrcA

01.7 p112711622 IJGC

cgp

tTOM2 72 dnTç6 TWbOLC9IJC dn2IJCTC9CTAGTA'

GC CO tTIJ2IJCG TLIA6IJçotTG2 gi.'q OCJJGt

MoL)CTUa cbçj' CJJT2 t6C Gtt6CC O

p0ttOM6L2 tTIJ2IJCT2T bo2TCTou B6C91126 WuA tTt.W2 £61A pG2ATJA 011 2pOtC-C6LW

71JCL6226 TIJC6tG2C GXb6IJ2G2 LGqflcUd IJGC C22 tTOM2 i.'q M69)61JTLJà

C6

onc2cI.JqpJä 2pOtc-CGW ° T02CT11à—t2C6 qGpC' tT2TIJà T11C6tG2C t2C62 qTtGCCTA

2PGGC2 TI1 C JG2C CMO MgA2:

ETL2C O JJ6 GXCGLJC CPC pOttoMGE2 W2A6

EOt 6X2WbT6 2 CTdJJC WOLJ6C9LA bOTTCA qrL6CgA M62C61J? pottoM5t21 P2T211C6

bo2TCTou2 O OtLOM6t2 POCP qtGCcA uq L7qLGccA

(16)

p-u9J qGw9uq' uq oXJ t1u t6AGUflG' tGtfCG2 bLoç2 (z.tpcp

coAGL9dG gç

2W6

Twbgcc o cTdpcxJTud wouG9iJ boc7 ou 2poc-cGzw IG qLGcç] TlJCtGg2G2 TIJ6t624 GXbGIJ2G2 (çp6 ijnwtgço

o

ptw2, nJgxJcrgJ boaTcTou2 p.

nuq tcG l4pTcp gcç

op

tT2G2 6C9fl6 O poçp flJG

qicc

9IJ T"qT'c GGC2 O WOIJGç9TL7t boTTcA oi JJ6L1CG

nTc 19cGT7t

uço MG)CGt 3JJGG bo2rçroxJ2

p6 COAGt9G tg1-o

t9G

jwoç

rwzuGqc6J? TIJco TUCt6962

Tu CpG coAGt9dG to uq

coAGtd6 tco' MPTCP

WO2

bJf12pG'

3G6W2 1JCt62G2 TIJ

4JJ6 flLJ2

TucGtbt6c

qt6ccou o C9n29Jrc?k 92 LnuLflu8 ow

riuq

tçs

o

pG MO A9L9p62 T2 6ArqGIJ tow

tTdcG i

bOç2 fIG

COAGt9àG L9çro 9JoLa MTcW fIG G6tg) rIJq2 L94G

COA6t9àG L9TO JJ9AG

9 2TduTtTcgIJc 6t6C

OLI

gccot

qGw911q2

oriiq

Ot TEW2 MTfJ TWbGtGCC 9CC622 O cEGqc

WOAGW6IJ2 IJ

fIG

uqc9ot2 O LW21

tTIJGUCTGT pGgTcp ErltcPGL' 9 IJITWGt

Ot

2tTTG2 J9AG

Gt6

T2 dooq t692OIJ PGTTGAG

TC 2 papr

cottG)946q

mrçJ

oçpt

bLoTc2TT JJG

COAGL9dG L9TO JJ92 fIG 9qA9IJc9aG

O

pGf lId 692A W692flI6 9IJ

bgAIuGIJc2 pA uoutru9IJcrGT coLbotgçTou cp 2fflXI ot ruçGLG2ç bgAmGIJç2 9LT tTLW2 flLIGUCT9J

coiiqoiJ

T2 fIG coAGL9dG 7O'

tçro O TIJGLG2ç

OO] tGfJGL

9IJG

AGTTIG2) y cowwou uq n;nr 2rWJW9LA wGg2rltG

O

9

couqrçrou GtG jq

Opç9rLY (9 OL bEopGw T2

tGbotcTud r qoLJ5 ru

O pOttOMGL2S OL UtW2' qTGc PTdP—tLGdflGIJCA WGS2flLG2 O P9TCG 2PGG

12 flJ6tG GAqGIJcG fJ9 TTIJ}C2 WOZJGç9tA bOTICA 40 fIG

tTIJ9IJCT9T O2TflOIJ2

MGTT pGAoIJq fIG bGtoq o fIG TLiTcTGT woIJGcgtA cTdpcGuTIsd

ou 2bGIJqud' b9tcTCnTGLTA OIl iq TLAG2WGUc 2bGIJqxJd

WA bGt2T2c

q2crI22 TgcGV fJT2 WGCJJGLIT2W ILI9A GXbT9TIJ MPA fIG rwbgcç O fIG ctqç C}J9IJIJGJ

(17)

12

IISAGIJCOtTG2t isq TUAG2CWGIJC PGdTU CO 6CL7G

(266 ETdi1t62

1—3) ILJCGtG2C

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26T1 4WI CD2 i

(25)

cpGOrA IJO

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roç

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btTWTcTAG

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ctGqc

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g

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(26)

Ofl2GO2 TTCGL9TT

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CG

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Co tG2bouq

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O WOIJ6CStA 5OCA SEG

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(27)

wouGçgt?t bOTTCA 01.7 pOfl2TIJd (9IJq

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To)

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cp thijqou

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MGt6 prdp W9tJC6

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fIG

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puj 6IJqTIJd

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GXbT9TU cp p1dJ

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pGJb

wq

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20

t9t MG

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92

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(28)

qGwIJq' q62bCG CpG bLG2nwpT7 MG)C flc p6C1466L7 wouçtA boilcA uq T01â-CGU wotçdgaG pritqGu uq wotçaaG C6L102 pGTb 6xbyru TC2 2çtozJd

rwbgcç

ou

pon2rIJa

cpLdGq

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COIJAGIJCOIJ

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(29)

ThlbtoAGa cpGTt batotwuca (2G6 naç oua exwbja' Xg2p?bt r9woI,c suq bLOXIG2 ot

ot

btawTrlw

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ucnqud

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GttGCc2

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CO2-aooq

2bGUqUd

woaç

taatcp

pq q;cnjç7i

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2

MG

pa hopcaq onç cpa COzJAazJçToIJ 9U9T72T2 o woijacgt

coUCpT2ToIJ: LpG

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TLI WOL76c9L? J.tIJ2WT22TOLJ

2JJ6G2 O cothotgTou

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co cpa pjica

LG2GtC

porq

pa aTAG

cpa

LOJG

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woij€cgtA

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MG

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ap€Gc

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tgca wotcàgdaa' ot axawbja T cPT2 C0LJçGXç

pa

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cpa psctoqnccou ot aqcTacapJa-aTwriJcaq

i-is pG tacaisç at O qGt6äflJ9cTOLJ aisq TL1L1oAçOLJ acjsoriap

MOfT)q

(30)

Se qo) 1JC]flqG G2G WGCp9IJT2W2

9ugJ?2G3

ot wozJGcgtA boircA

ou

porijq (uq pJ wzTh C9262'

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q1cr126q I JJ2

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P9T9UCG—2JJGGc 9uq 9iJ)C rGLqua CJ191J11672 GXGtL;9T

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cpgc

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go

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GX9WbTG tOTJOMTIJä 9 gapcGuxJa

O WOIJGg9t? bojICA tILW2

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ot

gp

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tgcg

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(31)

5a

btTIJCGCOIJ flUTA6t2T4 LGptngL7 T2

B6LIJIJG BGIJ

uq IjiJ HTPOA ,IHGntTUd wou6ct? oflc? WTWGOt

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c9LuGdTs—ocpGac6t

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6tGtGL1CG2

(32)

30

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raae .2—T38

(DT2)IIJAG2cwGuc

IUcGwJ ETIJSIJCG

ETnCcfgcTOLJ2 uq Bfl2TIJG22

ctb6I.1cGt

optc

3çGbGIJ

L1q Lr1CG 6ç6t2OIJt IIJA6I.1lOt7

cr0'

VTT Tai

tTCG ETflCcn9flOU2 VCL022 CornJcETG211 R12 ECOLIOWTC

,gb6t'

LO

pOLTO CEA"

K6LflJGqA gijq

,LOM26 UEXbTOITLJd yaatGagcG y6c

g

ct6qc

Ct11IJCP3I EGGL9T BG2GtA6 B9IJIC O M6M AOtC WTWGO'

WTCJ.GT'

1EC0IJOWGctTC VJJA22 O

1GCGU DOMU(1LIJ P.' }Iofl2TIJd: .x3—aQ.

O GC6IJ

G2LC 013 IIJAG1JcOETG211 0(TLLJ O ECOIJOWTC B6 bGCTA62 2'

VTIJ

ronT2

4CCTL

'

J,)TUd 2coc):

y

ctcc

22622WGU

(33)

3T

O ECOLJOWTC2 TO WA rae

3oa—io

uq

flJG B6JJAOt

a

zug J4rJrrgccntpJä JLW2t1

rrtcGt?

ontuj

CGT6t 4t) uq TWOIJ

TJCptT2C

.jOU6c9t?i EOJTCA RII2TIJG2a CACTG2

OF1tXJ 0 ECOIJOWTC2

2t

I3 43—€V

flJG

UJ3OU

O oLJGçgtA ,ojc7: ytdnwauç2

uq

EAqGIJc6'11 2cguqrIJg4vrgu

eGtcTGI 'q 2TW0U erTcptT2c ULPG liOTG

O ct6qT 4tC6 Iwb6tGC4TOu Tu

MGM XOI)C flTAGI2T421t ra

ecr'

eq6G 1wOu6cgtA oc? iq cotborgçG Bopc9t44 WTWGO

cg62'

I8Q.—TQO fltJTAGL2TcA o CIJTCdO oi I'1BE1'

1a23

EtGqIXJJ WTTc°'J

iq

''IJIJ

CJMgt 'j WOLJGçtA

HT2cOLA

O JJ6

flurçGq

B9b6L2 OIJ ECOUOIMTC YC

ArcA '

raae i—v

O

IIJA6W6L1 GpAOL fl2TIJd JX 6tOtiU2

g2 gçnt

ExbGLTw6L1c2 BLoo)crua2 CflWWTtJ2 2OLJ ' <GATIJ y

H92Gcc' uq -uu nppq' y GCOIJ2q6L9cOu

MorL)cTud bbGL MB—a4-f W T4P°

guq 4JJ6

EGCc2

O WOIJGLA

BOJTC?t 2JJOC}C211' GGtT jG2GtAG BgIJ:

ot

cpcao

CpE2çIJO'

rgMIGIjC6 4tçTIJ

ETCPGIJP9rThU'

iq CPT6 EA9IJ

nhJTAGt2Tc? wgtcp

4oIJQcgt7 bOTICA

poCJc2: Aq6L7cG IOW n'

EroM o ErTuq211' WTW6O MoZcpMG2C6tIJ

(34)

otq o oi6tuot' WTWGO'

OTTUGL 2cGbwGIJ gI.Jq CTJLY

flqGpfl2Cp'

LP g toq CIGqç CpzJzJGJ311,

.jOntIJ3T Ot

ECOIJOWIC HT3cOLA

38 DGC6WP Ia8 T8—3..V

WTPJCTU' Et6qGtTC

'

1pG

4O(126JJOJq SJI3CG 2JJGG L7q

CL6

D6btG22ToLI51

flxJTA6t2rç7'

Ta2

EttGCflAG DT2COI1131 CG3 EATqGIJCG tOW GcT LtqG WTWGO'

MGM AOt]( RMOIP E11L1JCArnJà 11JIJL7CT]

KLJCG EtTCCTOU

E.ttUI ECOL DGWLY2

LJq

oTcA'

totpcowLid

gJgIJCG 2wc1

CLIJ6dG

BOCJJG26t COIJtGLGUCG 26ET62 017 tTpJTC

92pAb' IJTJ gijq a6tGW7. 2cGTIJ

tp

iwbgcc o 4OIJGçL7 BOTTC? 017

xic

MBE'

ra

j4 CEGdOLA WIJ)CM

aq' wouGcgA

orTc? fl o cpTcgào ,tG22 OL

epAb V'TT iJq '1Gt6W7

GTLJ 41wOu6cgt?i &0TTC? uq ujc

rGuqrIJd11

T

Tae

2e2—5

cAcJc

6pATor ot IIJAsucotrG211'

rTLcGA

Of7tU]

O ECOIJOWTC2' roa'

ejThb' vuTT QMGI.

rgwouc ijq GIGwA 2c6ru 11cr.qc

couqco1' suq

4T3

MOflTUd

bb6t

DGC6IUPGt IV

(35)

33

,oe.

DOMu-g?%xuGuc Et6CC211

örtc6t?i

'1OflTL7T

O ECOIJOWTC2' TTO

I4A

24GTL1 '1Gt6W? 1jtTC62 uq

LLUd AOTJ1WG

TV

MOR2TIJd tJcGc:

.lOqGJ MflJ

nVTAGITc

T3

n2Tua G22

yaatGa9cGq

ptC6

Iq61JcTA

ou6cgt7 oJc? wpUGo AT6

2TW2

CIJtT2Ob1JG uq JO

jjg DOG2

OIJGçtA

,ojcA 6IJ6tG GCG22TOIJ23

EttGC2 O oU6çgt7 BOTTC?11' EflLObGL7 ECOIJOWTC

6ATGM 3Q T' 2—TOTT

2TW2 CJJET2ObPGt ,,I'GtbtGnVa

JJG

CLO6COIJOIXJTC LTWG 2GtT62 gcç2: JJJQ 2TW2' cptT2cObpat

,J4CtO6CO1JO1UC2 iq

J6JTCA

ECOLYOWG4tC

1a80' T-'8

EGGtJ

JG26tA6

BIJ)C O 46M AOt gfl

IGATG& T2

2flWU TO' —22

qIJà' 1OpL1 IIHOII2TIJd JIJgIJCG

IJq flJG JtgLY2wT2TOU

O 4OIJGIgEA bOTTC?,1

GcpIJT2w11'

LOO)CTVd2

bGt2

011 ECOIJOWTC yCcTATc7'

i

I8O

T-T

OWGE Cpt2C.Y

IJq

DAq OW6t IHGM EAT6UCG

013

JJ6 0U6ct7

yIJiJci'

e

T]—IO

L62c

ILl

2bTLTc 0 GqWLI

Uq

2CpMgt11

I4BE CtOGCOLT0WC2

OWGt cpE2çIJ

Jq gAq

OWGI 1DOG2 4o1JGçt?

BOTTC

46M

(36)

34

!ILTqGt

courqGtçou'

cpa EGq C9U

cpa 2potç—çatw age te cpa IGAGI

GXGTLU puiJca brawTnw' MG TWbflCTc7? 92211106 OAGL flWG 2b9u TUcGtG2c tSçG TIJ

daua9T

GdrqpLrnhs

2GG

Gd'

2cru

(Ta2p) iu awbp2InJd

pa cjat

ctaqç W9tJCGc TwbGLtGccTOu2

WX

9720

gacç cpa 29tG tagJ

yjcpondp MG tOC(12 011

cpa GXcGLU

pi.igucG

bLGWTWJ 711 Cp72gtcTcJG'

ponjq

t72)c)' q 72 pG

qabtacçou

tçG' uq b11 r cpa btTca o g 11GM csbrçgj dooq tadntaq LG taçritiJ JGUGTL2 (Mp7cp conjq ucjnqa g bxawrmo

ot

2?2cawgcrc co2ç

o csbcgj 7auor7ua

axbaccaq bt7ca cpuda' 72 (L+q)bl" MJJGLG L 72 cpa

iIIJ

g t1ccTouJG22 W)C6C'

pG

(12f197

otâ6Lr2ou7gu 0t10ffJ9 tOt

cpa IJGOC722TC7

AOtJ flIJTAGL2TcA' I4

ETnccncTO1J2: EATq6IJCG tOw ETLW—rGAGT gIJ6J

Dç1•' W7WG0 MGM

g)(t9J2G)C'

EdOJ.J'

•acrJ 111AG11c0t162'

IU6t1J9T

ETIJSIJCGt uq

yaataac€

H07791Jq' Taa4

D

r

cqqGIJ'

Gq2.' HIJqp0o1

O ECOIJOWGcLTC2' A07 4'

w2çGtqw:

40tJJ-Mc2OLY' NLJe 11JGCcOL yrTcOLGatG22TOLJ2 gLYg copJcGàtc7ou41'

71.1 J E

EudIG iq

}G2GtAG gIJ)c O cJJ7c9âo MOAGWPGL ]5

EX5JaTIJTLIa cpa rTdnTqTc? bt7STG.1' Moflc7ua

bbat

—-'

€qGtJ

2cEoudTIs' 2GAG11 LILPG

o; wouacgt? o77c? Dcp.c:

WTWGO'

wtcp TÔ2P

wgijgaawaijc MTJJ Iwb71cc7ou2

ot cpa JtSIJ2W72?7OIJ

O 4oU64gL? F,OTTCIS WIL

2ca71J' uGt6UJ?' yu

VA6L26 2GTGCcTOIJ OqGJ o uc 22G giiq r7p777cA

(37)

32

cJJG tçTOUJG

Ot pJc]nqLJ flJG TuqGx

O cowwoqrcA btTc62 2G6 gjo 2TW2

iq

pue

(raa)

uq cprr2cuo

ECGUPflW

uq gisu (]p) qr2cr722

p qir

O /'

JMGTA6

d2

O GgcJJ

AgtTgpJ6

guq g

COIJ2LJ 461.W

gt6 •ucJrTqGq

TU 59CJJ Gd11çOLT

bLoqrTcco

pJq6x giiq CbI (Gxcr1qIJd 2JJGJcGt)

?qGq

AGLA

2wrL

t62fl]

n2Tuà uou—ucGthocGq wOuflJ]

oncbnc gijq br.rcG

qç' 6a•

uqry2ctg]

Mcpu-dntcGt

TUtOcTOIr GtUL7)CG uq WTPOA

(Iaa2)

oL

BGtfl2

riJc6LbogcoIJ

wcpoqa n2psd g AgtGç7t o wouçpjA 2GLTG2

btoAqG WG

eM6 couçtnccq woujjA qgçg to tGgr CDE

uq cp CD qjcot p?

OW6L

gijq OWG' T8a)

2cEoIJdTu ot IJqccoL2 qGAGJobGq cpLondp pTacoLTcr IJJ?2T2

(6a'

tG2I1T2 gLG

opcI.rGq

MGIJ tT2TIJd

L626EI62—p6q

IJqC9çot2 (266k 6a

q6bGuqGu ou ne1ud

rnJq tç g

wou6lt? boJTcA ruqrcot 2Tun-]-t

jgg

btGIJç

uA Cg2G'

LG2T1T2

qT2cn22Gq GLG gLG

ioç

tçG 9tàGcpJ qG2CLp6 E6 pGpgATOt btçcnJLA MGTT btTOL o

uq

ttow

(Tea?) 62cw6 g woq6] ot cJJG 6qe obGLçIJd

bLocGqrltG2 uq pq

rrnqa-bLTw97

boJTc7 i.iqcot (b9tcTcf1T9LT? PGtOt6 6LLJIJ)6 stJq HTP0A MJJTCJJ T2 riJçet6ç t6 bt6ATTTIJa TLY wtjc6ç Ot

p1J

E62GA62

g2

T

26WLY)C6 uq ]-uq6t ()

LdnG

cp6 EG pg2 otcu

f12G

rnqe LG

cowbtpGzJ2TAG

tGCGIJ q2Cn22Ou 266 MIOU (Ia)

1726 O AVI2 711 WCOGCO1JOWTC2

M2 bou66L6q P? 21W2

(raeo) tot g (Taafl

npptq

(Taa4) giq 6t.IJc6'

giq CTTCPtT (totcwcowr.d)

o

tGgGq w2iGtr iJcrnqG (woIJt ocJJGt2) pGtIJ9LJ)C6

(raa3)'

2p9b uq

2IGTiJ

OJ 1rIJ)aG2 AG

A6 6GIJ GxcGu2TA6Tlt qT2crl22Gq IJ }JG

JT46tfTtG 2t1tA672

Figure

Updating...

References