Grand Valley State University
ScholarWorks@GVSU
Peer Reviewed Articles
School of Engineering
9-1-2000
Using Expert Systems for Simulation Modeling of
Patient Scheduling
Charles R. Standridge
Grand Valley State University, [email protected]
Duane Steward
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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Recommended Citation
Standridge, Charles R. and Steward, Duane, "Using Expert Systems for Simulation Modeling of Patient Scheduling" (2000).Peer Reviewed Articles.Paper 2.
TECHNICAL ARTICLE
Using
Expert
Systems
for Simulation
Modeling
of Patient
Scheduling
Charles
R.Standridge
Padnos School of
Engineering
GrandValley
StateUniversity
Eberhard
Center,
301 West Fulton GrandRapids, Michigan,
49504-6495E-mail:
Duane
Steward
Clinical Decision
Making Group
Massachusetts Institute of
Technology
NE43-415, 545
Technology
Square
Cambridge,
Massachusetts,
02139E-mail:
Modeling
thescheduling of patient appointments
is an
important
issue insimulating
a health caredelivery facility.
A simulation model mustin-clude the control
logic of appointment
scheduling
software
and theexplicit
andimplicit
decisionrules used
by
the human scheduler inselecting
an
appointment
time.Expert
systems
provide
oneway
of
modeling
such controllogic
and decision rules. We describe astructure for
anexpert
sys-tem that models
patient appointment scheduling
and theintegration of
such anexpert system
within a simulation model. An
example
expert
system
for
a small animalveterinary
clinic ispresented.
Keywords:
Expert
systems,
scheduling,
health care
delivery
1. Introduction
In a health care
delivery
system,
patients
often are scheduled to arriveaccording
to theirappointment
times. The time betweenappointments
may be suffi-cient to characterize the arrival process if the carede-livered,
as well as thedelivery
system
resourcesem-ployed,
can be modeled ashomogeneous
among thepatients
served.Such
homogeneity
is notalways
the case. Patient visits may include initial examinations and annual wellnesschecks,
as well asfollow-up
examinationsand
procedures
forpreviously
seenproblems.
Differ-ent
types
of examinations orprocedures
mayrequire
different work areas,
equipment,
or health carepro-viders. Time
requirements
may varysignificantly
aswell.
Follow-up
examinations andprocedures
need tobe scheduled within a
specified
time interval afterpreceding
examinations andprocedures.
Eachtype
of examination orprocedure
may be clustered in apar-ticular time
period.
A health care
delivery
system
meets theserequire-ments for
determining
whenpatients
arriveby
using
ascheduling
system.
Thissystem
may becompletely
keep
track of what times health careproviders
andphysical
system
resources are available and when within these timesappointments
arecurrently
sched-uled. The
operator
of thescheduling
system,
typically
a
receptionist,
isresponsible
forselecting
anappoint-ment time from among those available that meets the
requirements
of the examination orprocedure
that will beperformed.
Theserequirements
includeassur-ing
that neededequipment
and theappropriate
healthcare
provider
are not scheduled forconflicting
tasks.A simulation model of such a health care
delivery
system
mustincorporate
thescheduling
system.
Thus,
the model must include the control
logic
of thesched-uling protocol
and theexplicit
andimplicit
decision rules usedby
thereceptionist
inselecting
anappoint-ment time as well as
keeping
track of currentappoint-ments and available times.
Expert
systems
provide
one way ofmodeling
con-trol logic
and decision rules such as thoseemployed
in anappointment
scheduling
system.
Existing
simu-lationlanguages
support
themodeling
of examinationsand
procedures
as well as the tasksperformed by
health care
delivery personnel
and the use ofequip-ment.
Integrating
anexpert system
into a modeldevel-oped
using
anexisting,
commerciallanguage
supports
the inclusion of anappointment
scheduling
system
within a simulation.Patient
scheduling
in acompanion
animalveteri-nary medicine
practice
is ofparticular
interest. Agreat
variety
of examinations andprocedures
areperformed
in such apractice.
Physical
resources, such as surgeryspace, are few.
Staff-to-patient
ratios are low. Often asingle
veterinarian isrequired
toperform
at least asig-nificant
part
of eachprocedure.
Such aresource-con-strained situation enhances the
importance
ofpatient
scheduling
for the efficient and economicaloperation
of the
practice.
We discuss a
technique
formodeling
apatient
sched-uling
system
using
anexpert
system
and how such anexpert system
can beintegrated
into a simulation model. Wepresent
ageneral
structureshowing
how anexpert
system
can model apatient
scheduling
system.
The
patient
scheduling
problem
meets two criteria forusing
anexpert
system:
1. An inherent IF-THEN
knowledge
structure, and2. A
loosely
structured constraint context.Solutions to the
patient
scheduling problem
are notunique.
Theexpert system
is used to select andrecom-mend one solution from among those that are
possible.
If the constraint context is morehighly
structured,
orunique
solutions can begenerated
from a decision tree, a staticprocedure
based onexplicit
IF-THENstate-ments may be
employed
with smaller overhead thanan
expert
system.
We show the
application
of this structure within ageneric
simulator. The simulator was constructed toassist in the
design
andoperation
of small-scalecompanion
animalveterinary
medicinepractices.
Theuse of a small
expert
system
within this simulatordem-onstrates how such a mechanism can be used for pa-tient
scheduling
within a simulation model.2.
Background
Little work has been
reported
concerning
theapplica-tion of simulation to
veterinary practice design.
Stew-ard and
Standridge
[1, 2]
discuss and illustratepoten-tial benefits for the
design
andoperation
of the prac-tice of asingle
veterinarian. Benefits identified includeestimating
the amount ofphysical
space,pieces
ofequipment
and number of staff needed to meet the de-mand forpatient
care. Alternative uses of space andscheduling policies
can be evaluated. The economicfeasibility
ofpractice
expansion
can be assessed. Illus-trativepractice design
cases included simulationex-periments
conductedusing
ageneric
simulationmodel,
or simulator. The effect on the number ofpatients
seen,the number of late
patient discharges,
and the averageminutes late for late
discharges
are measured fordif-fering
numbers oftechnicians,
numbers ofphone
lines,
and intervals between the last
appointment
andclos-ing
time.Using
simulation in thedesign
of a newvet-erinary practice
is demonstrated. Technicalaspects
of the simulator arepresented by
Steward andStandridge
[3].
However,only
a brief overview of themodeling
of
patient
arrivals isgiven.
The reader who isprimarily
interested inmodeling
andexperimentation
forveteri-nary
practice
design
is referred to the papers discussedin this
paragraph.
There is
significant
workconcerning
the concurrentuse of artificial
intelligence, including
expert
systems,
and simulation. Some work seeks to
provide
aunify-ing
framework between the two fields. Fishwick[4]
seeks to find a common
terminology
andtaxonomy
between artificial
intelligence,
softwareengineering,
and simulation to facilitate theinter-working
of thesespecialties.
O’Keefe[5] presents
ataxonomy
forcom-bining
simulation andexpert
systems.
Onecomponent
of thetaxonomy
provides
for theparallel
andinterac-tive
operation
ofexpert systems
andsimulation,
theapproach
followed in this paper.Some work has focused on
modeling
thedynamic
behavior of human
beings
and othersystem
resourcesusing
artificialintelligence
techniques.
Two papers aretypical.
Nadoli andBiegel
[6] present
aknowledge
representation
scheme to achieve modularmodeling.
Blackboards are used to model howintelligent
agents
makecomplex
decisions in theoperation
of amanu-facturing
system.
Themanufacturing
system
isrepre-sented
by
classes ofqueueing
networks. Burns andMorgeson
[7]
present
a simulationmodeling
procedure
for
representing
intelligent
decisionmaking
entities, called actors, whorespond
tochanges
in the state ofthe
system.
The decisions that each actor must makeare
defined,
along
with the event thattriggers
theset of actions. The action set may be modified in the
course of the simulation. This may take the form of a
choice of one action from a database of
options
guided
by
aloosely
structured list of rules. Morecomplex
sce-narios may arise that include the retraction of earlierassertions and
dependent
inferences. This is referredto as non-monotonic
reasoning
in the artificial intelli-gence literature. In a similarvein, Robinson, Edwards,
and
Yongfa
[8]
describe the use of anexpert
system
tomodel human decision
making.
Twopossible
approaches
are identified:(1)
elicit the decision rules from theex-pert
andrepresent
them within anexpert
system,
and(2)
use the simulation model toprompt
theexpert
tomake
decisions,
building
up a set ofexamples
from which anexpert system
could learn. Theexpert system
issubsequently
linked with a simulation model as the means to include human decisionmaking.
Expert
system
techniques
have beendeveloped
toassist the modeler in
designing
simulationexperiments
as discussedby Taylor
and Huron[9]
as well as Taoand Nelson
[10].
Others haveapplied
expert systems
to the statistical
analysis problems
associated withsimulation
experiments:
Mellichamp
and Park[11]
and Ramachandran,
Kimbler,
and Naadimuthu[12].
No work
discussing
the use of thesetechniques
formodeling
thescheduling
components
ofsystems
has been located.3.
Expert System
Structure for PatientScheduling
Modeling
receptionist
decisionmaking
forpatient
ap-pointment
scheduling
was ofprimary importance
indesigning
andbuilding
theveterinary practice
simu-lator. A
general
expert system
structure forrepresent-ing
such human decisionmaking
wasdeveloped.
We believe
by building
ageneral
structureinitially,
as well as
by
constructing
onetypical application
us-ing
the structure, thatsubsequent applications
willrequire
less time. The structure andprevious
applica-tions
provide guidance.
Small animalveterinary
prac-tices are similar to each other.Thus,
rulesdeveloped
in
modeling
onepractice
willlikely
serve as thestart-ing point
for rules needed to model otherpractices.
Inaddition,
the same rules may be used inmultiple
models.
A
general
structure for anexpert system
formodel-ing
apatient appointment scheduling
system
is shown inFigure
1. Theexpert system
consists of aworking
knowledge
base ofcurrently
scheduledappointments
(appointment
calendar)
and a rule basespecifying
howappointments
arescheduled,
as well as an inferenceengine.
The latter uses the rulebase,
theappointment
calendarfacts,
and information about anappointment
to be scheduled to determine one or more
appointment
times consistent with allrequirements.
The rule base has four
types
of rulesexpressed
in IF-THEN statement form:appointment-type-compatibility,
appointment-time-determination, temporal-constraint
and current-time.Appointment-type-compatibility
ruleshelp
manage theassignment
of health carede-livery
system
resources topatient
care tasks. Theserules seek to maximize resource utilization while
avoid-ing
conflicting
assignments
to concurrent tasks. Forexample,
anoutpatient
examination cannot be sched-uled tobegin concurrently
with anoutpatient
surgery since the veterinarianrequires
asignificant
amount oftime to
perform
both. However, anoutpatient
exami-nation can be scheduled tobegin concurrently
with anoutpatient
non-surgical
treatment ifsignificant
parts
of that task can be
performed by
a technician.Appointment-time-determination
rulesspecify
howto search the
appointment
calendar to determine anappointment
time. The searchstrategy
tries to mini-mize the difference between the desiredappointment
timespecified by
the health careprovider
and the ac-tualappointment
time. Anappointment
time is feasibleif no
incompatible appointments
existduring
thein-terval :
appointment
time + duration ofappointment.
The interval should not contain theclosing
time of thefacility,
thatis,
theappointment
can becompleted
be-fore
closing.
Appointment-type-compatibility
rules andappoint-ment-time-determination rules model the
explicit
de-cision
making procedure by
which anappointment
time is selected. The individualperforming
theappoint-ment
scheduling
function alsoemploys implicit
rules that constrain whenappointments
can occur. Such rules must be madeexplicit
in theexpert system.
The health care
facility
may be closedduring
certain time intervals eachday,
such as 6:00 p.m. to 7:00 a.m.the
following day,
and onspecified days
of the week such asSunday.
These times may be initialized in theappointment
calendar asappointments
of a nulltype.
Closed-facility
rules define nullappointments
asin-compatible
with all otherappointment
types.
Current-time rules forbid thescheduling
of anappointment
prior
to the current simulation time.Contextual
parameters
are stored as facts within theknowledge
base. These are used toprovide operational
quantities
that can bechanged
for simulationexperi-mentation without
modifying
the IF-THEN statements.Typical
parameters
include the minutes beforeclosing
after whichappointment
times are notallowed,
as well as thedaily
opening
andclosing
times.Appointment
information characterizes eachindi-vidual
appointment.
The inferenceengine
uses thisinformation to enforce the
appointment-type-compat-ibility
rules and to select feasibleappointment
timesusing
theappointment-time-determination
rules.Typi-cal
appointment
information includes thetarget
start-ing
time,duration,
andtype
ofappointment,
as well as the current simulation time and aunique patient
identifier.
4. The
Veterinary
Practice SimulatorScheduling Expert System
Employing
anexpert system
formodeling
patient
scheduling
using
the structure shown inFigure
1re-quires
thefollowing:
1.
Specifying
theappointment
information,
2.
Specifying
therules,
3.
Specifying
contextualparameter
facts,
4.
Implementing
theappointment
calendar and the inferenceengine.
In the
veterinary practice
simulator,
thesesteps
areaccomplished
as follows. Acompanion
animalveteri-nary
practice
serves avariety
ofpatients
thatrequire
a widevariety
of services. These services include annual examinations,follow-up
examinations forpreviously
provided
treatment,outpatient
treatments,inpatient
treatments one to three times
daily,
andinpatient
andoutpatient
surgery. Resourcesrequired
to deliver thishealth care include
personnel
such as veterinarians,veterinary
technicians,
andreceptionists.
Physical
space resources arerequired:
examination rooms,sur-gical
areas,surgical
preparation,
recovery areas,den-tal treatment areas, cages, and
phone
lines.Appointment
informationuniquely
characterizes eachappointment
and is as follows:To avoid a voluminous and
unnecessarily
detailedpresentation,
only
the rules mostsignificant
inmodel-ing
the behavior of the individualperforming
thescheduling
task arepresented.
Other rules take care ofexpert system computer
implementation
details.Appointment-type-compatibility
rules define theappointment
types
that may and may not be scheduledconcurrently.
In theveterinary
practice
simulator,
thefollowing
appointment
types
weresupported:
exami-nation(Exam),
outpatient
orinpatient non-surgical
treatment
(Treatment),
andoutpatient
orinpatient
surgery
(Surgery). Compatibility
rules areprocessed
only
when thefeasibility
ofscheduling
anappointment
concurrently
with anexisting appointment
is assessed. Thecompatibility
rules used in theveterinary
practice
simulator are shown inFigure
2.DesiredType
is thetype
ofappointment
to bescheduled,
andCurrentType
is thetype
ofappointment already
sched-uled. The rules return NO if the
appointment
types
cannot be scheduled
concurrently
and YES ifthey
can. In summary, theappointment-type-compatibility
rules forbid an
appointment
to start when anotherap-pointment
of the sametype
isongoing.
Anongoing
surgery or examination excludes
starting
anotherap-pointment.
Resourcerequirements
for a treatment areflexible
enough
topermit starting
a surgery or an exam while a treatment isongoing.
Closed-facility
rulesaugment
theappointment-type-compatibility
rules. These rules indicate the times that theveterinary
practice
is closed and unavailable forap-pointments.
Inaddition,
appointments
are not allowedFigure
2.Compatibility
rules used in theveterinary practice
simulatorFigure
3.Closed-facility
rules used in theveterinary practice
simulatorPreClosed. The
closed-facility
rules are shown inFig-ure 3. An
appointment
oftype
Closed indicates thatthe clinic is closed.
Appointment-time-determination
rules search theappointment
calendar for anappropriate
time tosched-ule an
appointment.
Anappointment
time is availableif there is no
incompatible
appointment
in the rangedefined
by
thestarting appointment
time and thedura-tion of the
appointment.
Noincompatible
appointment
means that there is no otherappointment
scheduled or that thecompatibility
rules are satisfied(return
YES).
The best time for the
appointment
isspecified by
Target
= CurrentTimeplus
some Interval. If this time isavailable,
theappointment
time isTarget.
If this time is notavailable,
theappointment
calendar is searchedboth forward and backward in time for the closest
avail-able
appointment
time toTarget.
The closer of the twoappointment
times, one foundby searching
forwardand one found
by searching
backward,
is chosen as theappointment
time.The
appointment-time-determination
rules are shown inFigure
4. This rule set must be reviewediteratively
until an availableappointment
time isreturned,
as shown inFigure
5. The iteration ends when theTarget
appointment
time is theappointment
time returnedby
the rules. The iteration is necessary since thecom-putation
of aproposed
appointment
time,given
thatthe
Target
time is notavailable,
takes into accountonly
the
previously
scheduledappointments
closest to thetarget.
It ispossible
that otherappointments
may exist in the timeinterval,
proposed appointment
time +Duration, that make the
proposed
appointment
timeunavailable.
Current-time rules
prevent
scheduling
appointments
before the currenttime,
CurrentTime as shown in thelast two rules in
Figure
4.The
expert
system
wasimplemented
in the Cpro-gramming
language.
Rules were transliterated into IF-THEN-ELSE statements and associatedlogic.
This C program served as the inferenceengine.
Theappoint-ment calendar was stored as a random access
binary
file. Relevant
pieces
of theappointment
file were readinto memory to search for
appointment
times.5.
Expert
System -
Simulation ModelIntegration
The
scheduling
expert system operates
concurrently
and inparallel
with the simulation model as shown inFigure
6. The simulation model invokes theexpert
system
whenever anappointment
must bescheduled,
either as afollow-up
to aprevious appointment
or asFigure
6.Expert
system-simulation
modelintegration
a newappointment.
Theappointment
information ispassed
to theexpert system
and anappointment
time is returned. The arrival of thepatient
is scheduled onthe simulation event calendar at the
appointment
time. Note how the simulation model and theexpert
system operate
inparallel.
Theexpert system
has noknowledge
of the simulation. Itsimply
uses theap-pointment
informationpassed
from the simulation todetermine an
appointment
timeusing
the rule baseand the
appointment
calendar. The simulation modelhas no
knowledge
of the rule base or theappointment
calendar. It
simply
uses theappointment
time returnedby
theexpert system.
In the
veterinary practice
simulator,
the interface between the simulation model and theexpert system
was constructed as follows. The simulation model was
implemented
in SLAMSYSTEM. Wheneverscheduling
an
appointment
was necessary, an event was invokedat the current simulation time. The event routine, coded
in
FORTRAN,
passed
theappointment
information tothe
expert
system,
coded in C. Anappointment
time was returned. The event routineplaced
theappoint-ment arrival event on the event calendar at the
appoint-ment time.
6.
Example
ScheduleDynamics
Validation evidence
concerning
theexpert system
isobtained if the
expert system
produces
a feasibleappointment
schedule for a small animalveterinary
practice.
Theproduction
of such a schedule isillus-trated
by
thefollowing.
Figure
7 shows theappointment
calendar for atypi-cal
day
in a small animalveterinary
clinic. The clinicaccepts
appointments
from 9:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. and 1:00 p.m to 4:00 p.m. Thepre-closed period
is from4:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m.
Suppose
anappointment
for an examination of ahalf-hour duration and a
target
of 3:00 p.m. is needed.First consider the
appointment-time-determination
rules:The new
appointment
iscompatible
with the treat-ment scheduled for 3:00 p.m. However, theTarget
is not an availableappointment
time since the examina-tioncurrently
scheduled at 3:15 is notcompatible
with the newappointment.
A new
Target
isproposed by searching
theappoint-ment calendar forward and backward. The new
Tar-get
is 3:15 p.m. The relevantappointment-time-deter-mination rules are as follows.
The iteration shown in
Figure
5 processes the newtarget
time of 3:15 p.m. Thistarget
time isrejected
anda new
target
time of 3:30 p.m.proposed
in the sameway that 3:00 p.m. was
rejected
and 3:15 p.m. waspro-posed.
Thetarget
time of 3:30 p.m. isaccepted
basedon the rules:
7.
Summary
An
expert system
can be used to model thescheduling
ofpatient appointments.
Such anexpert system
can beintegrated
with a simulation model to aid in thedesign
of a medicalfacility
such as a small animalvet-erinary
clinic. Theintegration
isaccomplished by
im-plementing
theexpert system
so that it may be invoked as asubprogram
whenever neededby
the simulationmodel.
Four
types
of rules are identified formodeling
patient
scheduling. Appointment-type-compatibility
rulesprevent
concurrentscheduling
ofappointments
withconflicting
resourcerequirements.
Appointment-time-determination rules search the
appointment
cal-endar for arequested
appointment
time.Closed-facil-ity
rulesprevent
appointments
frombeing
scheduled when thepatient
carefacility
is closed and current-timerules
prevent
appointment
scheduling
before the cur-rent-time.Specific
rules formodeling
patient
scheduling
in asmall animal
veterinary
clinic have beenpresented.
An illustration of the
appointment
schedulegenerated
by
these rules has been shown.8. References
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Simula-tion to the Design and Operation of Veterinary Medical
Prac-tice—Part I." American Journal of Veterinary Medicine, March 1996.
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Simula-tion to the Design and Operation of Veterinary Medical Prac-tice—Part II." American Journal of Veterinary Medicine, March 1996.
[3] Steward, D. and Standridge, C.R. "A Veterinary Practice Simu-lator Requiring the Integration of Expert System and Process
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[5] O’Keefe, R. "Simulation and Expert Systems - A Taxonomy
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10-16, 1986.
[6] Nadoli, G. and Biegel, J.E. "Intelligent
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[7] Burns, J.R. and Morgeson, J.D. "An Object-Oriented
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(eds.), pp 1541-1545, 1998.
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1988.
Charles R.
Standridge
is an Associate Professor in the Padnos School ofEngineering
at GrandValley
StateUniversity
inMichigan.
He has more than 25 years of simulationexperi-ence in academia and
industry.
He hasperformed
manysimulation
applications, developed
commercial simulationsoftware, and
taught
simulation at three universities. Hiscurrent research interests are in the
development
of modu-lar simulation environments (MSE). He isworking
within-dustry
on theapplication
of MSE tostrategic
and tacticallogistics problems.
Dr.Standridge’s
simulationteaching
in-terests are in the use of
computer-aided teaching
studios for instruction ofintroductory undergraduate
andgraduate
courses
using
a case-basedapproach.
He has a PhD inIn-dustrial
Engineering
from PurdueUniversity,
and is anAs-sociate Editor of SIMULATION in the areas of
Logistics,