ABSTRACT BOOK
International Scientific
Conference
International Scientific Conference
7-10 JUL
Y 2015
PARIS, FRANCE
ABSTRACT BOOK
This Abstract book is based on a compilation of all abstracts
selected for oral and poster presentations, as of 15 May 2015.
Due to the inability of some authors to attend, some of those
works will therefore not be presented during the conference.
ABSTRACT BOOK
International Scientific Conference
7-10 JUL
Y 2015
PARIS, FRANCE
Welcome to the Conference
Welcome to Paris, welcome to ‘Our Common Future under Climate Change’!
On behalf of the High Level Board, the Organizing Committee and the Scientific Committee, it is our pleasure to welcome you to Paris to the largest forum for the scientific community to come together ahead of COP21, hosted by France in December 2015 (“Paris Climat 2015”). Building on the results of the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5), this four-day conference will address key issues concerning climate change in the broader context of global change. It will offer an opportunity to discuss solutions for both mitigation and adaptation issues. The Conference also aims to contribute to a science-society dialogue, notably thanks to specific sessions with stakeholders during the event and through nearly 80 accredited side events taking place all around the world from June 1st to July 15th.
When putting together this event over the past months, we were greatly encouraged by the huge interest from the global scientific community, with more than 400 parallel sessions and 2200 abstracts submitted, eventually leading to the organization of 140 parallel sessions. Strong support was also received from many public French, European and international institutions and organizations, allowing us to invite many keynote speakers and fund the participation of more than 120 young researchers from developing countries. Let us warmly thank all those who made this possible.
The International Scientific Committee deserves warm thanks for designing plenary and large parallel sessions as well as supervising the call for contributions and the call for sessions, as well as the merging process of more than 400 parallel sessions into 140 parallel sessions. The Organizing Committee did its best to ensure that the overall organization for the conference was relevant to the objectives and scope. The High Level Board raised the funds, engaged the scientific community to contribute and accredited side events. The Conference Secretariat worked hard to make this event happening. The Communication Advisory Board was instrumental in launching and framing our communication activities on different media. We are very grateful to all.
We very much hope that you will enjoy your stay in Paris and benefit from exciting scientific interactions, contributing to the future scientific agenda. We also hope that the conference will facilitate, encourage and develop connections between scientists and stakeholders, allowing to draw new avenues in the research agenda engaging the scientific community to elaborate, asses and monitor solutions to tackle climate change together with other major global challenges, including sustainable development goals.
Christopher Field, Chair, CFCC15 Scientific Committee Jean Jouzel, Chair, CFCC15 High Level Board
International Scientific Conference
7-10 JUL
Y 2015
PARIS, FRANCE
ABSTRACT BOOK
Committees
Scientific committee
• Chris FIELD (IPCC, USA) - Chair
• Philippe CIAIS (LSCE, France)
• Wolfgang CRAMER (IMBE, France)
• Purnamita DASGUPTA (IEG, India)
• Ruth DEFRIES (Colombia University, USA)
• Navroz DUBASH (CPR, India)
• Ottmar EDENHOFER (PIK, Germany / IPCC, USA)
• Michael GRUBB (University College London, UK)
• Jean-Charles HOURCADE (CNRS- France)
• Sheila JASANOFF (Harvard Kenny School of Government, USA)
• Kejun JIANG (Nanyang Technological Univerisity, China)
• Vladimir KATTSO (MGO, Russia)
• Hervé LE TREUT, France (CNRS-UPMC/France)
• Emilio LEBRE LA ROVERE (National University, Brazil)
• Valérie MASSON-DELMOTTE (LSCE/IPSL, France)
• Cheik MBOW (ICRAF, Kenya)
• Isabelle NIANG-DIOP (IRD, Senegal)
• Carlos NOBRE (SEPED/MCTI, Brazil)
• Karen O’BRIEN (Universty of Oslo, Norway)
• Joe JACQUELINE PEREIRA (University Kebangsaan, Malaysia)
• Shilong PIAO (Peking University, China)
• Hans OTTO PÖRTNER (Alfred Wegener Institute, Germany)
• Monika RHEIN (University of Bremen, Germany)
• Johan ROCKSTRÖM (Stockhom University, Sweden)
• Hans Joachim SCHELLNHUBER (PIK, Germany)
• Robert SCHOLES (University of Witwatersrand, South Africa)
• Pete SMITH (University of Aberdeen, UK)
• Youba SOKONA (The South Centre, Switzerland)
• Jean-François SOUSSANA (INRA, France)
• Mark STAFFORD-SMITH (Future Earth, Australia)
• Thomas STOCKER (University of Bern, Switzerland)
• Laurence TUBIANA (IDDRI, France)
• Diana ÜRGE-VORSATZ (Central European University, Hungary)
• Penny URQUHART (Independent analyst, South Africa)
• Carolina VERA (University of Buenos Aires, Argentina)
ABSTRACT BOOK
International Scientific Conference
7-10 JUL
Y 2015
PARIS, FRANCE
Organizing committee
Chair:
• Hervé Le Treut (CNRS-UPMC)
Members:
• Wolfgang Cramer (CNRS/Future Earth)
• Pascale Delecluse (CNRS)
• Robert Kandel (CNRS/Ecole polytechnique)
• Frank Lecocq (AgroParis Tech/CIRED)
• Lucilla Spini (ICSU)
• Jean-François Soussana (INRA)
• Marie-Ange Theobald (UNESCO)
• Stéphanie Thiébault (CNRS)
• Sébastien Treyer (IDDRI)
Conference Secretariat:
• Claire Weill, Head (INRA)
• Géraldine Chouteau (Météo-France)
• Aglaé Jézéquel (INRA)
• Gaëlle Jotham (INRA)
• Ingrid Le Ru (IDDRI)
• Benoît Martimort-Asso (IRD)
• Nadia Mersali (IDDRI)
• Catherine Michaut (CNRS-UVSQ/IPSL)
• Aline Nehmé (INRA)
• Jeremy Zuber (INRA)
• Aimie Eliot (INRA)
• Eve Le Dem (INRA)
Communication Advisory
Board:
• Richard Black, Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit
• Hunter Cutting, Climate Nexus
• Owen Gaffney, Future Earth/Stockholm Resilience Centre
• Kalee Kreider, United Nations Foundation
• Michelle Kovacevic, Communications consultant
• Jonathan Lynn, IPCC
• Kim Nicholas, Lund University
• Tim Nuthall, European Climate Foundation
• Nicholas Nuttall, UNFCC
• Roz Pidcock, Carbon Brief
• Charlotte Smith, Communications INC
• Sue Williams, UNESCO
• Denise Young, ICSU
International Scientific Conference
7-10 JUL
Y 2015
PARIS, FRANCE
ABSTRACT BOOK
High Level Board
• Future Earth
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
• International Council for Science (ICSU)
• United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)
• World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
• European Commission - Climate action
• European Investment Bank (EIB)
• The World Bank
• Ministère de l’agriculture, de l’agroalimentaire et de la forêt
• Ministère de l’écologie, du développement durable et de l’énergie
• Ministère de l’éducation nationale, de l’enseignement supérieur et de la recherche
• Ministère des affaires étrangères et du développement international
• Observatoire national sur les effets du réchauffement climatique
• Bureau de recherches géologiques et minières (BRGM)
• Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement (CIRAD)
• Centre national d’études spatiales (CNES)
• Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS)
• Commissariat à l’énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)
• Institut de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l’environnement et l’agriculture (IRSTEA)
• Institut de recherche pour le développement (IRD)
• Institut français de recherche pour l’exploitation de la mer (IFREMER)
• Institut français des sciences et technologies des transports, de l’aménagement et des réseaux (IFSTTAR)
• Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA)
• Météo France
• Muséum national d’Histoire naturelle (MNHN)
• Alliance nationale de coordination de la recherche pour l’énergie (ANCRE)
• Alliance nationale de recherche pour l’environnement (AllENVI)
• Alliance nationale des sciences humaines et sociales (Athéna)
• Alliance nationale pour les sciences de la vie et de la santé (Aviesan)
• Agence de l’environnement et de la maîtrise de l’énergie (ADEME)
• Agence française du développement (AFD)
• Agence nationale de la recherche (ANR)
• Conférence des présidents d’université (CPU)
• Université Pierre et Marie Curie (UPMC)
• Kic Climat
• Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI)
• International institute for environment and development (IIED)
• Sustainable development solutions network (SDSN)
• The energy and resources institute (TERI)
• Universcience
• Ville de Paris
ABSTRACT BOOK
International Scientific Conference
7-10 JUL
Y 2015
PARIS, FRANCE
Partners
W
ith the generous patronage of
International partnerships
Major sponsors
Official partners
Partners
Participation of Southern Researchers is supported by
The Conference is grateful for the collaboration of
MINISTÈRE DES AFFAIRES ÉTRANGÈRES ET DU DÉVELOPPEMENT INTERNATIONAL MINISTÈRE DE L’AGRICULTURE, DE L’ALIMENTATION, DE LA PêCHE ET DE LA RURALITÉ MINISTÈRE DE L’ÉDUCATION NATIONALE, DE L’ENSEIGNEMENT SUPÉRIEUR ET DE LA RECHERCHE MINISTÈRE DE L’ÉCOLOGIE, DU DÉVELOPPEMENT DURABLE ET DE L’ÉNERGIE
International Scientific Conference
7-10 JUL
Y 2015
PARIS, FRANCE
TABLE OF CONTENT
TABLE OF CONTENT
L1.1 - Climate variability and change over the last millennia: Paleoclimate
information and climate simulations 13
L1.2 - Climate Change and Land Systems: Impacts and Feedbacks 14
L1.3 – Climate Change and Ocean Systems: Introduction and Background 16
L1.4 - Climate change and health - Risks and Responses 17
L1.5 – Climate variability, change and vulnerability in the Pacific, Indian
and Southern Oceans 18
L2.1 - Drivers of Change and Visions of Development: Are Climate Policy
and Development Compatible Goals? 19
L2.2 - New pledges (INDCs) for 2025/2030: Are they reinforcing development
and consistent with a 2 oC pathway? 19
L2.3 - Climatic Variability and the Social and Human Dimensions of Vulnerability 21
L2.4 - Early Warning for Thresholds and Tipping Points in the Earth System 22
L2.5 - Food and water security under climate change 23
L3.1 - Socio-economics and Instruments for Transforming the Energy Sector:
Economic Policy Tools for Mitigation of Energy-related GHG Emissions 25
L3.2 - Transformational Energy Technologies 27
L3.3 - Managing Transitions in Cities: Towards resilient, low-carbon cities 27
L3.4 - Ecosystem-based Adaptation and Biodiversity Conservation: How we can help organisms to adapt by themselves, what the limits are, and
how we can use ecosystem processes to help people adapt 29
L3.5 - Benefits of mitigation of climate change for coastal areas 30
L4.1 - The climate, finance and trade nexus: turning a political challenge into
a sustainable development opportunity 33
L4.2 - Resilience and Transformative Solutions - Refining Old Strategies and
Developing New Ones for Adaptation in Island Environments 34
L4.3 - Regional Perspectives on Low Carbon Pathways: exploring the
conditionalities for climate resilient and equitable development 36
L4.4 - Multilevel Governance of Climate Change - New Strategies for
Coordinating Policies on Mitigation and Adaptation 36
L4.5 - Equity: A Condition to Triggering Action ? 38
1101 - From the Holocene to the Anthropocene: the history of
human-environmental interactions 39
1102 - From past to future Climate Changes 43
1103 - Climate variability and external forcings of the Common Era with
special focus on the role of volcanic eruptions 53
1104 - Climate services and information: from global change to local decisions 55
1105a - Assessing climate observations 61
1105b - Quality and availability of data for global sustainability 62
1106 - The Earth’s energy imbalance and exchanges at the atmosphere-ocean
interface: from fundamental research to societal concern 72
1107 - Sea level rise and ice sheets 75
1108 - Middle Atmosphere influence on Climate 81
1109 - Understanding the Earth’s changing water cycle 85
1110 - Observing the changing ocean climate 88
1111 - Climate variability, change and vulnerability in the Pacific, Indian and
Southern Oceans 93
1112 - The Arctic Climate system 99
TABLE OF CONTENT
International Scientific Conference
7-10 JUL
Y 2015
PARIS, FRANCE
1114 - Global emissions and their implications for climate targets 112
1115 - GHG Monitoring 119
1116 - Biogeochemical Feedbacks to Climate Change 128
1117 - Understanding decadal variations in the climate system and implications
for the future 136
1118a - Attribution of extreme events: How are high impact extreme events
changing and why ? 153
1118b - Attribution of extreme events: How are high impact extreme events
changing and why ? 155
1119a - Extreme hydrological events: Deciphering changes in hazard and
risk at different time-scales 158
1119b - Extreme hydrological events: Deciphering changes in hazard and
risk at different time-scales 160
1121 - Air Pollution and Climate Change linkages and Health Impact
Assessment 168
1122 - Global warming hiatus 176
1123 - Climate change education for sustainable development 178
2201 - Between the cracks of future climate projections: exploring weather
events and climate scenarios with no precedence 185
2202 - Turn down the Heat: Climate Change Impacts, Development and Lock-in 187
2203 - Defining dangerous climate change: Contributions from the AR5
‘Key Risks’ and ‘Reasons for Concern’ frameworks and future directions 191
2204 - A world above 2°C global warming: understanding risks and developing
transformative solutions 194
2205 - Multi-sectoral analysis of risks to climate change (hot spots) at 2 °C warming 201
2206 - The World in 2050 – What does it look like and how do we get 206
2207 - Ocean Change: Understanding and projecting the impacts of warming
and acidification on natural and human systems 207
2208 - Deep-sea ecosystems and climate-change: new perspectives to address
knowledge gaps in impact assessment 212
2209 - Transformative pathways to sustain marine ecosystems and their
services under climate change 214
2210 - Coastal Impacts of Climate Change 219
2211 - Climate change in mountains: from impacts to resilience 225
2212a - Climate change and freshwater – 1: State of knowledge 232
2212b - Climate change and freshwater – 2: Shaping the Future 241
2213 - Ecological feedbacks to climate change 249
2214 - Climate-ready adaptation for conservation and ecosystem services 252
2215 - Tropical degraded forests response to global change: current knowledge and cross-cutting research challenges for monitoring and
processes understanding 260
2216 - Climate smart forestry- Integrating mitigation and adaptation into
sustainable development 267
2217 - Global scenarios of land-use change and land-based mitigation,
and their importance in the climate system 273
2218 - Land-based mitigation: agriculture, forests, bioenergy 287
2219 - Politics and numbers: Political and technical challenges in reducing
emissions from forests with REDD+ 293
2220 - Landscape level adaptation and mitigation: integrating science, policy
and practice 303
2222 - Semi-Arid Regions Adaptation 307
2223 - Modeling Our Agricultural Future 313
2224 - Agrarian and pastoral societies: adaptive strategies and innovations 323
International Scientific Conference
7-10 JUL
Y 2015
PARIS, FRANCE
TABLE OF CONTENT
2226 - Health and climate change : the need for a diversity of approaches 343
2228 - Removing Barriers to Climate Change Mitigation at City Level 348
2229 - Cities and their environments: Assessing Climate Change Impacts,
Adaptation and Mitigation strategies across scales from rural to urban 349
2230 - Transport and climate change: mitigation and adaptation measures
for transport infrastructures 354
2231 - Cultural Heritage facing up to Climate Change, Sea Level Rise and Pollution 358
2232 - The Copernicus Climate Change Service : an European answer to
Climate Change Challenges 364
2233 - Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction: International
and Urban approaches 367
2234 - Building Resilience to Climate and Weather Extremes: Sustainable
Solutions Grounded in Socio-Cultural Context 371
2235 - Reinforcing Resilience 374
2236 - Scenarios, public deliberation and decisions 378
2237a - Planetary Economics (1): Costs of Inaction and Benefits of Policy Action 387
2237b - Planetary Economics (2): expanding the horizons of economic sciences
and the policy implications 389
2238 - Indigenous and Non-Indigenous Science in Collaboration for Our
Common Future 391
2239 - Co-production of knowledge : How to interact to produce climate adaptation research, between scientific communities and stakeholders,
at local or international, also between North and South countries? 398
2240 - Perceptions of climate change 405
2241 - New representations and new frames for the climate change debate 414
2242 - Migration dynamics under current and future climate change 416
2243 - Multi scale adaptation and responses in vulnerable coastal sectors
under climate change risks 423
2244 - Climate Change Biodiversity and Human Well-Being : illustration
from forests and agro-forests systems 432
2245 - Modelling the complexities of the Earth System 436
3301 - Climate Intervention: Evaluating its Risks, Benefits, and Potential 441
3302 - Key Energy Technologies for Low Carbon Pathways 446
3303 - Decarbonizing Electricity/Electricity Transition 449
3304 - Climate change, carbon budgets and energy sector regulation 460
3305 - Energy efficiency as a core means to decarbonize demand 462
3306 - Transitioning from fossil fuels and avoiding lock-ins 473
3307 - Negative emissions for climate change stabilization & the role of
CO2 geological storage 476
3308 - Fiscal Reform 482
3309 - Costs and benefits of adaptation: Lessons from developed and
developing countries 484
3310 - Climate finance at scale: emerging opportunities? 487
3311 - Climate mitigation policies - learning, evaluating and comparing national
TABLE OF CONTENT
International Scientific Conference
7-10 JUL
Y 2015
PARIS, FRANCE
3312 - Planning and assessing adaptation: Frameworks, methods and results 495
3313 - Coordinated Adaptation to Climate Change 507
3314 - Innovate for addressing climate change challenges: examples from
different industries 512
3315 - Energy Innovation for Climate Change: systems approaches and
societal responses 513
3316 - Towards solutions that transcend technology and markets: The role
of choices and behaviour change 523
3317 - Mainstreaming low carbon consumption : challenges and opportunities 528
3318 - Sustainable strategies to mitigate climate and improve public
health in developed and developing countries 533
3320 - Food Systems and Food Security: Health and Environment 537
3321 - Health Responses 546
3322a - Representation of technological dynamics and societal transformation 555
3322b - Development of pathways: their mix of endogenous and exogenous
uncertainties and their future under a changing climate 556
3323 - Governance and Justice 563
3324 - Paradigms for Building Resilience from Cross-scale Integrated Risk
Governance Perspectives 565
3325a - Overcoming barriers to transitions: knowledge to action and the
importance of communication 567
3325b - Creating the climate change groundswell by communicating business,
science and regional activity 568
3326 - The Mediterranean Basin in a warmer and drier world : challenges
and opportunities 572
3327 - Adapting to Arctic Climate Change 580
3328 - Climate Change Challenges, Adaptation Barriers and Responses 582
3329 - How Might East African Landscapes Respond to Future Climate Change? 589
3330a - Facing climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa 593
3330b - Facing climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa 595
3331 - Forest landscape management to create resilience in the face of climate
change in West and Central Africa 624
3332 - Asia on the Frontlines: Projected Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation 628
3333 - China’s climate policies and low-carbon innovation 631
3335 - Climate Change Mitigation in Latin America 633
3336 - Post-2030 decarbonisation pathways in Europe 637
3337 - Facing floods and climate challenges: designing governance
arrangements and unlocking financing on the pathway to resilient cities 637
3338 - European Collaborative Research and Innovation for Climate Action 641
3339 - Effective design and implementation of EU climate policy 642
3340 - Conflict and Climate Change 644
3341 - Gender and Climate Change: From Vulnerability to Mainstreaming
International Scientific Conference
7-10 JUL
Y 2015
PARIS, FRANCE
TABLE OF CONTENT
3342 - Developing Capacity through Low Carbon Initiatives, Climate Adaptation
and Increased Resilience to Climate Impacts in the Asia-Pacific Region 652
4401 - Sustainable development goals and the new climate regime :
synergies for change ? 656
4402a - Low carbon pathways for staying below 2°C: Global requirements 658
4402b - Low carbon pathways for staying below 2°C: Global requirements 660
4403 - Revising the 2015 Paris Climate Change Agreement architecture for
better governance and outcomes 668
4404 - Climate finance: New sources, new instruments, more effects? 671
4405 - On the macroeconomic opportunity of climate policy 673
4406a - Climate, Sustainable Development and Energy Security 676
4406b - Climate change and Development: Alleviating poverty and achieving inclusive development within the constraints of a global carbon budget
and other planetary boundaries 678
4407 - The Challenges and Opportunities of Multilevel Adaptation Governance 683
4408 - Risk and Insurance 687
4409a - The «new» climate governance: Driving societal transformations? 689
4409b - Climate Governance: New and emerging challenges after Paris 689
4410 - Citizens and governments as drivers of cultural and political change 705
4411 - Can the Green Economy save the climate? 709
4412 - Inequalities, responsibilities and equity in global climate policy 713
4413a - Technology, transformations and capabilities in developing countries 719
4413b - Environmental policies to enable innovation and transformation 720
4414 - Leveraging Multi-layered Climate Science-Policy Social Learning and Dialogue for Transformative Solutions: Towards A Proposal to “Decade
for Accelerating Climate Dialogue for Action” 723
4415a - Urban policies for Accessibility, Mobility and Informal settlements in the Global South to cope with Climate Change: Emerging Issues, Innovations
and Opportunities 734
4415b - Transformative solutions for urban sustainability governance: Multi-level
government and cross-sectoral collaboration for efficient climate action 737
4417 - Transforming Society and Science for Sustainability – Addressing Challenges
in Transdisciplinary Research 742
4418a - Information for decision-making - How to engage in future thinking or
plan for the long term 747
4418b - Information for decision making - Improve availability, access and use
of information 748
4419 - Climate science in the public sphere. Media coverage and communication devices analysis for effective policy implementation 763
4420a - How to price carbon for industry? 766
ABSTRACT BOOK
International Scientific Conference
7-10 JUL
Y 2015
PARIS, FRANCE
K-L1.1-01
Model-data comparison over the last
millennium: progress, uncertainties and
challenges
F. Gondalez Rouco (1)
(1) Instituto de Geociencias, Madrid, Spain
Present day climate variability and change, including recent anthropogenic warming, poses questions that cannot be answered based solely upon instrumental records. The last two millennia (L2k), and specifically the last millennium (LM), are immediate temporal intervals that involve climate processes similar to nowadays. The last 2k and LM have the potential to expand our understanding of climate variability from inter-annual and decadal to multi-centennial timescales, place a wider context for current warming and explore internally induced and externally forced responses of the climate system. Knowledge about proxy-based climate reconstructions, paleoclimate model simulations and estimations of external radiative forcing emerge then as key elements to gain insights about the relative roles of internal versus forced variability.
Comparisons of last millennium simulations and reconstructions constitute opportunities for learning about pre-instrumental climate variability beyond the lessons that climate simulations or reconstruction efforts can offer by themselves. Model-data comparisons provide insight about the relative roles of internal variability and external natural or anthropogenic induced changes and the processes involved. The relatively short ranges of external forcing variability within the last 2k/LM nevertheless make these comparisons challenging and further complicated by the large uncertainties that affect both reconstructions and model simulations (Masson-Delmotte et al. 2013). This work reports on the progress of about a decade of efforts in L2k/LM model-data comparison and discusses how model-data comparison exercises focused on the last millennium can improve our understanding of decadal to multi-centennial climate variability as well as contribute to our knowledge of present and future climate and/or associated projection uncertainties. For this purpose, the available continental, hemispherical and global L2k/LM temperature reconstructions, an ensemble of simulations including both Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase III / Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (PMIP3/CMIP5; Taylor et al 2012) and non-PMIP3 model experiments, as well as the external forcing configurations applied (Schmidt et al 2012) are analysed. In addition, for each simulation considered, a total external forcing (TEF), including all individual forcing factors, is estimated as a simple approach to compare the total radiative forcing applied to each experiment (Fernández-Donado et al., 2013).
At hemispherical and global scales, simulations and reconstructions broadly agree on the major temperature changes and suggest, despite the important influence of the internal variability, an overall linear response to external forcing above multidecadal timescales. The rate of temperature response to LM changes in TEF is quantified as a metric of the transient climate response during the LM (LMTCR) and its distribution from the model and reconstructed ensembles are compared to other estimates of climate sensitivity and transient climate response. LMTCR also allows to frame a simple quantitative comparison between simulations and reconstructions where discrepant behaviors can be singled out. The uncertainties in reconstructions and model experiments that impact our understanding of simulated and reconstruction responses at these spatial scales are also discussed.
At regional/continental scales we focus on the assessment of PMIP3/CMIP5 experiments and temperature reconstructions developed within the PAGES 2k project (PAGES 2k consortium 2013) and their responses to forcing and report on their consistency across regions and timescales. Inter-regional behavior is more homogeneous
in the simulated than in the reconstructed climates. Agreement between simulations and reconstructions is higher for Northern Hemisphere regions whilst models disagree more with the reconstructions in the Southern Hemisphere.
Fernández-Donado, L. et al., 2013: Temperature response to external forcing in simulations and reconstructions of the last millennium. Climate of the Past, 9, 393-421. Masson-Delmotte, V., M. et al., 2013: Information from Paleoclimate Archives. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T. F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P. M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
PAGES 2k Consortium, 2013: Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia. Nature Geoscience, 6, 339-346.
Schmidt, G. A., et al., 2012: Climate forcing reconstructions for use in PMIP simulations of the last millennium, Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 185-191.
Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl, 2012: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93.
K-L1.1-02
Variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation
during the past millennium
V. Masson-Delmotte (1) ; P. Ortega (2) ; F. Lehner (3) ; D. Swingedouw (4) ; CC. Raible (5) ; M. Casado (6) ; P. Yiou (7) (1) IPSL, Paris; (2) 1LSCE/IPSL, UMR 8212 (CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), CEA Saclay , Gif-sur-Yvette, France; (3) University of Bern, , Climate and environmental physics, physics institute,, Bern, Switzerland; (4) Universite de Bordeaux, UMR CNRS 5805 EPOC, Pessac, France; (5) University of Bern, Climate and environmental physics, physics institute, Bern, Switzerland; (6) 1LSCE/IPSL, UMR 8212 (CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), CEA Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; (7) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Saclay, France
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant mode of winter atmospheric circulation variability in the Northern Hemisphere. This atmospheric mode is characterized by a changing dipole of sea-level pressure between the Azores and Iceland, and has widespread impacts on temperature, precipitation, storm tracks and therefore on strategic sectors such as insurance, renewable energy production, crop yields and water management.
Recent developments of dynamical methods offer promising advances for seasonal NAO predictions. However, assessing potential predictability at multi-annual time scales requires a documentation of past NAO low-frequency variability. A recent bi-proxy NAO reconstruction spanning the last millennium suggests that long-lasting positive NAO conditions were established during medieval times, explaining the particularly warm conditions over Europe; however, this result is still debated. Here, we present a new annually-resolved NAO reconstruction for the last millennium based on an initial selection of 48 proxy records distributed around the Atlantic Ocean and surrounding continents and built through an ensemble of multivariate regressions. This approach has been validated in perfect model analyses, using climate simulations as physically consistent surrogates of the real world. The analysis makes evident that the multi-proxy reconstruction outperforms the bi-proxy index.
The final reconstruction shows no persistent positive NAO during the medieval period, but suggests that positive phases were dominant during the thirteenth and fourteenth
L1.1 - Climate variability and change over the last millennia:
Paleoclimate information and climate simulations
International Scientific Conference
7-10 JUL
Y 2015
PARIS, FRANCE
ABSTRACT BOOK
centuries. It also reveals that a positive NAO emerges two years after strong volcanic eruptions, consistent with results obtained from models and satellite observations for the Mt Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines.
K-L1.1-03
European summer hydroclimate variability
during the last millennium
H. Linderholm (1) ; K. Seftigen (2) ; E. Cook (3) ; D. Chen (4) ; T. Ou (4)
(1) University of Göteborg, Institute of geography, Göteborg, Sweden; (2) Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland; (3) Columbia University, Lamont-doherty earth observatory, Columbia, United States of America; (4) Gothenburg University, Department of earth sciences, Gothenburg, Sweden
Associated with global warming, changes in extreme weather and climate events have been observed in Europe, including increased frequencies of heat waves as well as the frequency or intensity of heavy precipitation events. In a future warmer world, it is likely that the risk of hydroclimatological extremes will increase. Extreme hydroclimate events, such as droughts and floods, can have significant impacts on society, e.g. by affecting food availability, water quality, health, energy, infrastructure etc., but also on ecosystems. It is apparent that climate variability and change already pose a challenge to Europe’s economic sectors, production systems, and ecosystems. Increased drought frequency will significantly affect natural and human systems, and compared to other hazards, hey can persist for long periods and affect large areas. Floods, associated with heavy precipitation events, can pose threats to human life and property, and also affect water quality, e.g. by spreading pollutants and fertilizers. Clearly, society must prepare for an intensification of hydroclimate extremes in the future. However, major uncertainties and knowledge gaps still exist in understanding and modeling hydroclimate, making it difficult to quantify future changes and their impacts on systems and sectors. A prerequisite to mitigate extreme hydroclimatological events is good understanding of their spatiotemporal characteristics as well as the mechanisms generating such events. However, the lack of instrumental observations limits the period of spatial analysis to the recent century, making it difficult to fully understand natural hydroclimate variability.
Tree rings can provide annually resolved environmental and climate information and are widely used as proxies of past climatic events, such as drought or floods. The wide geographical distribution of tree-ring chronologies, compared to most other high-resolution climate proxies, provides a potential to infer past climate change on large spatial scales. Recently, past hydroclimate variability has been reconstructed from networks of moisture-sensitive tree-ring chronologies in North America and Monsoon. These reconstructions have not only provided valuable information of past hydroclimatic characteristics, but they have also contributed essential background data for increasing the understanding of the underlying mechanisms of past drought variability.
This presentation will focus on a new reconstruction of summer hydroclimate variability in Fennoscandia during the last millennium. Using tree-ring data from a dense network, a point-by-point multiple nested regression approach was used to reconstruct June through August average Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) with a spatial resolution of 0.5°x 0.5°. We will show that the data provides highly useful information of regional natural hydroclimate variability in time and space in a long-term context, making it possible to assess the impact of global warming on hydroclimate in Fennoscandia. It also allows for identification of historical extreme hydrological events, including severity, duration and magnitude. Moreover, we will discuss potential drivers of hydroclimate regional drought variability on different time scales. Finally, we will take a broader, European, look on summer hydroclimate variability during the last 1000 years.
K-L1.1-04
Atmospheric carbon dioxide tracks climate
and land carbon changes during the past
millennium
T. K. Bauska (1)
(1) University of Cambridge, Department of earth sciences, Cambridge, United Kingdom
The land carbon reservoir is predicted to turn into a net source of carbon to the atmosphere if global warming continues unabated. Multi-decadal, global-scale observations needed to test this predication are difficult adding uncertainties to projections of atmospheric CO2 and climate. Ice core records of the last millennium document atmospheric CO2 variations on multi-decadal to centennial timescales but attempts to constrain the underlying drivers of atmospheric CO2 using the stable isotopic composition of atmospheric carbon dioxide (δ13C-CO2) have been limited by the precision and temporal resolution of existing data. This spurred discussion on the magnitude of climate-carbon feedbacks and emissions from past anthropogenic land use change . We developed a new high-resolution, high-precision ice core record of δ13C-CO2 and use it to show that terrestrial organic carbon likely controlled multi-decadal scale atmospheric CO2 variability from 760-1850 C.E. Our results put strong limits on the net source of land carbon to the atmosphere prior to the Industrial period. If significant long-term carbon emissions came from pre-industrial anthropogenic land-use changes, they must have been offset by some natural 13C depleted land sink, plausibly peatlands. On multi-decadal timescales, carbon cycle changes appear to covary with reconstructed regional climate changes, consistent with climate as an important driver of land carbon storage on these time scales. Our new observations present a challenging benchmark for models attempting to simulate the climate and carbon cycle of the past in order to understand the projections for the future. However, reducing the uncertainties in past temperature reconstructions and developing stronger constraints on pre-Industrial anthropogenic emissions are likely needed to provide further insight into climate-carbon cycle interactions.
L1.2 - Climate Change and Land Systems: Impacts and
Feedbacks
K-L1.2-01
Climate change and land systems: Impacts
and feedbacks related to drought
S. Seneviratne (1)
(1) ETH, Zurich, Institute for atmospheric and climate science, Zurich, Switzerland
Land systems have numerous two-way interactions with the climate system. While they are often strongly affected by climate variability and changes, in particular in relation to droughts and hot extremes, they also impact climate through direct forcing and feedbacks. In particular, the modulation of soil water dynamics by ecosystems is an
important factor affecting itself the evolution of droughts and heatwaves in several regions. In addition, human management, e.g. through changes in surface properties associated with agriculture practice, also affects these interactions. This presentation will provide a brief overview of the underlying mechanisms, including insights from new research, and will introduce the main topics addressed in this session.
ABSTRACT BOOK
International Scientific Conference
7-10 JUL
Y 2015
PARIS, FRANCE
K-L1.2-02
Climate and the water-energy-food nexus
C. Dalin (1)
(1) LSE, Grantham research institute,, London, United Kingdom
Water, energy and food are essential for human well-being, and socio-economic development. Global projections indicate that demand for these resources will increase significantly over the next decades, under the pressure of population growth, economic development, urbanisation, diversifying diets, cultural and technological changes, and climate change (Hoff 2011). Annual and seasonal climate variability, as well as climate change, strongly affect all components of the water-energy-food nexus, adding to the challenge of using resources sustainably across sectors. While uncertainties remain high, climate models project decreases in annual precipitation in many developing countries, e.g. by as much as 20% in southern Africa by 2080. These changes would propagate into reduced water availability and crop yields, which, combined with projected population growth, reinforces the need for planners to collaborate across sectors and account for climate variability and change. Recognition of spatial and sectoral interdependencies in the nexus should inform policies, institutions, and investments for enhancing water, energy, and food security, and thus support sustainable development in climate-sensitive environments. This presentation will highlight the importance of recognising these linkages, and identify spatial and topical hotspots in current nexus research.
K-L1.2-03
Revising the planetary boundary for
fres-hwater use
D. Gerten (1)
(1) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Nine intertwined ‘planetary boundaries’ demarcate the multidimensional ‘safe’ space for key earth system processes. Leaving this safe space due to the environmental imprint of collective human activities, Earth may be moved out of its Holocene status which up to now enabled the development of a human society of several billion people. While the concept and quantitative basis of planetary boundaries has recently undergone a comprehensive update (Steffen et al., Science, 2015), some boundaries still require a more robust quantification, especially in terms of upscaling regional patterns to the planetary scale and in terms of boundary interactions. Moreover, comprehensive assessments of development pathways for civil society under the constraint of planetary boundaries are still lacking.
This talk shows ways to improve the definition and assessment of the planetary boundary for human freshwater use, which is challenging as the regional pattern of water availabilities and limitations and the tight interactions with land cover and use are to be considered. The core approach is to account, spatially explicitly, for the environmental flow requirements of riverine ecosystems, which define local limitations to human water use and serve as a basis for a geographically explicit ‘bottom-up’ estimation of the planetary boundary. A pilot assessment – based on high-resolution simulations with a dynamic global vegetation and water balance model – indicates that the value of the planetary boundary may be lower than suggested earlier. Different estimation methods to assess environmental flows suggest a value between 1,100 and 4,500 km3 consumptive water use per year (original estimate from Rockström et al., Nature 2009: 4,000 km3 per year). Thus, humanity’s current consumptive water use (at least ~1,600 km3 per year), let alone water withdrawal (~3,600 km3/year), already exceeds the lower end of this range that reflects stringent environmental policies. Moreover, local tolerance limits of water use are already exceeded in many places, such as in parts of southern Europe, southern Asia, the Near and Middle East, and in the western US. Building on these results, the presentation elaborates on how the definition and quantification of the freshwater boundary can be further improved, for example by including “green” water, by specifying linkages with other planetary boundaries (such as the one for land-system change), and by water ethical considerations. Initial estimates of the potential of improved on-farm water
management to increase crop production while staying within the planetary boundaries for freshwater use and land-system change are also presented.
K-L1.2-04
Land use changes and their impacts on
climate
J. Pongratz (1)
(1) Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
About three quarters of the ice-free land surface have undergone some form of land use change: about one quarter has undergone a change in land cover, in particular deforestation for agricultural expansion; on another one half the vegetation cover has been kept but is managed, as happens e.g. in forestry. This land cover change and land management affects climate through multiple pathways. The political focus mostly lies on land use change as contributor to the human-induced rise in atmospheric CO2 and thus global warming. The local-scale climate, more relevant for adaptation, can show strong effects due to biogeophysical effects such as changes in water and heat fluxes.
Land use change (mostly restricted to land cover change) has therefore entered into most Earth system models (ESMs) used to project climate change. With the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) land use change has for the first time been considered in the climate simulations underlying the IPCC assessment report. However, the spread across model results for both carbon cycle and biogeophysical aspects has been found to be substantial. This initiated a range of studies that aim at understanding the reasons why estimates differ so much. These findings can be arranged along a chain of uncertainties from uncertain land use datasets, differences in their implementation in ESMs, to various definitions of land-use-induced carbon fluxes in models. This talk will discuss these sources of model spread and ways forward to reduce the uncertainties.
Understanding the sources of uncertainty is particularly important now: Recent observational studies suggest that land management can have effects on climate that are of similar strength as those of land cover change, yet occur on much larger area. The ESM community is therefore moving beyond land cover change towards land management for a more complete representation of the human impact on climate.
K-L1.2-05
Terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks in the
climate system
L. Mercado (1)
(1) University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
Terrestrial ecosystems take up around a quarter of the human CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning, land use and land cover changes each year (Le Quéré et al., 2015), mitigating climate change for the present day. Can we rely on this carbon sink in the future?
Terrestrial ecosystems store a vast quantity of carbon in biomass and soils and their storage capacity depends on environmental conditions. Elevated CO2 is known to act as a fertilizer, stimulating plant production, and a changing climate (e.g. temperature and precipitation) will alter the lifetime of carbon in plants and soils. For example, the seminal work by Cox et al., (2000) suggested that future climate warming will lead to a release of carbon from terrestrial ecosystems, through temperature-enhanced soil decomposition, and highlighted the vulnerability of tropical forests to climate change. This represents a positive climate carbon cycle feedback, whereby an initial warming leads to a terrestrial release of CO2, which in turn leads to further warming.
Subsequently much research has focused on the role of terrestrial ecosystems and their feedbacks in the Earth system. Here we review the current state-of-the-knowledge drawing from the latest synthesis in the IPCC AR5 WG1 report, and our research at the University of Exeter, Met Office Hadley Centre and Centre of Ecology and Hydrology, UK. In particular, we present the effect of aerosols, implications of plant acclimation to temperature,
International Scientific Conference
7-10 JUL
Y 2015
PARIS, FRANCE
ABSTRACT BOOK
and the resilience of tropical forests on the future development of the land carbon sink (Mercado et al., 2009, Booth et al., 2012, Huntingford et al., 2013). I will highlight the key uncertainties in our understanding of climate- terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks, and present recent work on emerging constraints on climate carbon cycle feedbacks (Cox et al., 2013, Wenzel et al 2014).
K-L1.2-06
Global impacts of climate change on
ter-restrial biodiversity and ecosystem service
supply
W. Cramer (1)
(1) CNRS, Imbe, Aix-en-Provence, France
Impacts of recent climate change have been observed and attributed worldwide. Many of these affect land ecosystems, their function and the diversity of organisms
in them. Scenarios of future warming, changes in rainfall patterns, and sea-level rise all indicate significant impacts on biodiversity in natural and managed landscapes, despite uncertainties regarding spatial patterns and confounding drivers such as land use and land management change, and urbanisation. While biodiversity loss may be considered a major impact of climate change in its own right, concerns are growing that the supply of essential services to humanity, where these depend on intact ecosystems, is also at risk. For certain key ecosystem services, such as climate regulation, food and timber production, water purification and others, the global nature of possible losses has been considered widely (also by the IPCC), but other ecosystem services are less easily quantified. I will summarise the state of knowledge for more comprehensive assessments of future global biodiversity loss and changes in ecosystem service provisioning, and thereby indicate the need for interaction between assessments of risks made by the IPCC and the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES).
L1.3 – Climate Change and Ocean Systems: Introduction and
Background
K-L1.3-01
Climate Change and Ocean Systems:
Intro-duction and Background
JP. Gattuso (1)
(1) CNRS and Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Laboratoire d’Océanographie de Villefranche, Villefranche-sur-mer, France
The ocean moderates climate change at the cost of profound alterations of its physics, chemistry, ecology, and services. However, despite the ocean’s critical role in global ecosystem processes and services, international climate negotiations have only minimally touched on ocean impacts. Any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts will be incomplete and inadequate. This session, as well as session «2207: Ocean Change: Understanding and projecting the impacts of warming and acidification on natural and human systems» on Wednesday afternoon will provide an integrated and updated perspective on the changes, risks and projections for both natural and human systems. This will facilitate the construction of key messages for the COP21 negotiation process on the Ocean and associated issues.
K-L1.3-02
Challenges to ocean life and associated
human interests: IPCC assessments and
beyond
HO. Pörtner (1)
(1) Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Oceans cover more than 70% of the planet and their biota create half the oxygen humankind uses to breathe and burn fossil fuels. Oceans cover about 11 % of the global population’s demand for animal protein. Climate change causes oceans to warm and stratify, and sea level to rise, as well as Arctic summer sea ice to shrink. Ocean warming accounts for more than 90% of the energy accumulated in the climate system. Warming causes oceans to lose oxygen overall and during an expansion of hypoxic water layers. Concomitantly, the accumulation of anthropogenic CO2 in ocean surface waters disturbs water chemistry and causes acidification. These climate drivers alter ocean ecosystems and the services they provide. They frequently relocate and reduce marine biological resources on which human societies depend, affecting economic benefits, livelihoods, food availability and public health particularly for coastal communities. The recent IPCC assessment report (AR5) as well as the Structured Expert Dialogue have comprehensively considered impacts, vulnerability, adaptation options and projected climate risks for the oceans and their services to humankind. Ocean warming has caused geographical shifts in the distribution of marine species, associated with changes in the species composition and function of ecosystems. Recent
meta-analyses indicate that ambient temperature and hypoxia extremes in some regions are already close to permanent tolerance limits of marine animals and plants indicating a risk of expanding water bodies void of higher marine life. Empirical observations together with mechanism-based knowledge of organism and ecosystem vulnerabilities support the detection of climate impacts in the field and their attribution to climate change. They also support more accurate, higher confidence projections of climate change impacts in the oceans, as well as of associated risk such as of ocean acidification effects on key animal phyla and their economic value. Such assessments of risks were recently developed further by the Oceans 2015 initiative. Warming-induced shifts in ocean productivity and species distribution, including of exploited fish and invertebrates, and declines in their body size are projected to result in reductions of fisheries productivity, especially at lower latitudes. In contrast, fisheries at high latitudes may benefit from increased abundance and diversity of commercially valuable species. Evidence is increasing that anthropogenic ocean acidification is affecting organisms, ecosystems and associated human interests (particularly bivalve fisheries and aquaculture) in areas with and without a natural background of elevated CO2 concentrations. Hypoxic areas that exclude active pelagic fishes such as tuna and their fisheries are expanding. Impacts thus go beyond those of simply warming and include effects of acidification and deoxygenation. These combined effects of the three climate drivers will lead organisms to reach long-term tolerance limits even earlier than with temperature changing alone, enhancing sensitivity through dynamic shifts of thermal limits. For example, recent modeling emphasizes that combined warming and oxygen loss constrain metabolic scope of key species and thereby habitat and biogeographical distribution across wider ocean areas than previously thought. Through effects on performance at the levels of reproduction, behaviour and growth, marine life forms including those that are economically relevant, are thus threatened by climate drivers changing individually and even more so by their additive or synergistic effects. Together with shifts in ocean circulation and productivity the resulting dynamic changes in thermal bioenvelopes have major implications for the ranges of geographical distribution of marine species, their competitive and trophic interactions, population dynamics and community compositions. Such integrative view is also being developed for paleo-observations of climate change effects. It should also be included in modeled projections of ecosystem change, which will inform social-ecological models projecting effects on fisheries and aquaculture. Assessments of risks of ocean warming, deoxygenation, and acidification to ecosystem services have generally concluded that human communities and artisanal fishermen at low latitudes often have the lowest capacity to adapt to losses in natural resources, for example by replacement with alternative foods. Substantial challenges remain to anticipate the ecosystem-wide impacts of the combined drivers of warming, deoxygenation, and acidification, and the ensuing alterations of ecosystem services for human communities. Finally, the projections of climate change impacts in the oceans and along coasts, including sea level rise, and the associated risks and scopes for adaptation,
ABSTRACT BOOK
International Scientific Conference
7-10 JUL
Y 2015
PARIS, FRANCE
need to be considered when setting the long-term global goals (LTGG) of climate change mitigation. As an example, the long-term risks of sea-level rise, Arctic sea ice loss and combined impacts of ocean warming and acidification on key groups of corals, bivalves and other calcifiers, that have high economic value in tourism, coastal protection and fisheries, strongly support setting the LTGG to but not above 1.5°C global warming above preindustrial values.
K-L1.3-03
Oceans of Concern
E. Poloczanska (1)
(1) CSIRO, Ocean and atmosphere flagship, Brisbane, Australia
Climate change and ocean acidification will reorganize food webs and alter ecosystem function, with attendant impacts on human communities and activities. The impacts of climate change have been detected across all oceans; changes to ocean have altered the timing of plankton blooms and migratory patterns and spawning in fish and invertebrates, over recent decades. Shifts in species distributions to higher latitudes are a commonly reported response of marine fishes and invertebrates to warming oceans. Differences in rates of change with climate change amongst species and populations imply
that marine ecosystems may be substantially reorganized at regional scales. Indeed, at a global scale a strong warming signal is already evident in fish catches, with an increasing dominance of warm-water species found in catches coastal and shelf areas. Modelling approaches project a global redistribution of marine biodiversity this century with regional differences driven by species invasions and local extinctions. The emergence of novel assemblages of species with no past or contemporary analogues will consequently require new strategies for managing coastal areas and fisheries. Large changes in species composition are projected in both polar and tropical oceans with increases in species richness at high latitudes. High local extinctions are projected in equatorial oceans, particularly in the central Indo-Pacific, as species are eliminated with warming. The different futures emerge for tropical biodiversity by 2050s under high and low emission scenarios with widespread species losses and declines in species richness around the equator, particularly in the central Indo-Pacific, if global temperatures exceed the 2°C limit. Further, under the medium to high emission scenarios, ocean acidification poses substantial risks to marine ecosystems, particularly coral reefs and polar ecosystems. Climate change is a risk food resources, coastal livelihoods, and industries dependent on the Ocean, adding to the threats of over-fishing and other non-climate stressors, and the likelihood of exceeding adaptation limits increases with greater rates and magnitude of climate change.
L1.4 - Climate change and health - Risks and Responses
K-L1.4-01
A holistic approach to assessing the risks
of climate change
D. King (1)
(1) Foreign and Commonwealth Office, London, United Kingdom
Sir David King will present a new approach to assessing the risks of climate change, designed to inform governments’ decision-making on how to prioritise the objective of reducing the risks of climate change relative to other national objectives. At the core of this is a different way of interrogating the science: instead of projecting ‘most likely’ climatic changes and then describing the impacts of those, this approach asks first what it is that we might wish to avoid, and then considers its likelihood as a function of time under different scenarios. This assessment of the science is complemented by assessments of the relative difficulty of achieving different global emissions pathways, and of the systemic risks of climate change to the global economy and international security. When combined with a recognition of the essentially subjective nature of any valuation of future events, this approach can give governments a clearer and more holistic assessment of the risk that climate change poses to their national interests.
K-L1.4-02
2015 Lancet Commission on Health and
Climate Change: Emergency actions to
protect human health
W. Nick (1)
(1) Lancet Commission On Health And Climate Change, London, United Kingdom
In 2009, the UCL-Lancet Commission on Managing the Health Effects of Climate Change called climate change “the biggest global health threat of the 21st century”. Five years on, a new multidisciplinary, international Commission has formed to map out a comprehensive response to climate change, in order to ensure the highest attainable standards of health for populations worldwide. The Commission represents a collaboration between over 80 European and Chinese climate scientists and geographers, social and environmental scientists, biodiversity experts, engineers and energy policy experts, economists, political scientists and public policy experts, and health professionals – all seeking a response to climate change which is designed to protect and promote human health.
Nick Watts will present the key messages and recommendations from the Commission’s work.
K-L1.4-03
Climate change, co-benefits and the global
public health agenda
N. Maria (1)
(1) World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland Dr Neira will address the implications of the evidence presented for the wider public health agenda, and in making a positive contribution to the preparations for the UNFCCC CoP21 in Paris in December. This will include outlining how evidence is now being translated into a support programme to build health system resilience to climate change, focussing on the most vulnerable countries. It will also focus particularly on the opportunities for large, local health cobenefits of climate change mitigation policies, particularly in reducing the over seven million annual deaths that WHO estimates are attributable to air pollution.
International Scientific Conference
7-10 JUL
Y 2015
PARIS, FRANCE
ABSTRACT BOOK
K-L1.5-01
ENSO and the Tropical Pacific in a
Chan-ging Climate
M. Mcphaden (1)
(1) NOAA/PMEL, Seattle, United States of America
The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle represents the strongest year to year fluctuation of the climate system on the planet. El Niño, the warm phase of ENSO, and La Niña, the cold phase of ENSO, arise through coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions in the tropical Pacific mediated by positive feedbacks between surface wind and sea surface temperature variations. Warm and cold ENSO episodes lead to global shifts in patterns of weather variability that cause droughts, floods, heat waves and other extreme events around the world. ENSO-related natural disasters have significant consequences for society in terms of lives lost, property damage and economic vitality. Understanding how ENSO may change in the future as a result of anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing is therefore a compelling question that has challenged the scientific community. This presentation will review our current understanding of ENSO dynamics, predictability, and societal impacts. It will also assess current efforts to understand how ENSO may change in the future based on analyses of the instrumental record, CMIP models, and paleo data.
K-L1.5-02
Indian Ocean interannual to decadal
varia-bility in the context of climate change
J. Vialard (1) ; W. Han (2) ; M. Lengaigne (3) ; A. Nidheesh, (4) ; V. Parvathi, (4) ; I. Suresh, (4)
(1) IRD, LOCEAN, Paris, France; (2) University of Colorado, Boulder, United States of America; (3) UPMC, Paris, France; (4) National Institute of Oceanography, Goa, India
In the sixties, the Indian Ocean was the focus of the oceanographer’s international community due to its dynamic response to monsoons. In the eighties, this focus shifted entirely to the neighbouring Pacific, berth of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), most powerful interannual climate mode on earth. It is only at the turn of the century that the Indian Ocean came back into fashion with the discovery of its own intrinsic interannual climate variability (the Indian Ocean Dipole) and the development of a basin-wide observing network. After reviewing interannual variability of the Indian Ocean, I will turn to the natural decadal climate variability, which has comparatively been much less described in this basin than in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. I will in particular question if this decadal variability purely arises from the neighbouring Pacific or if an intrinsic variability also exists in the Indian Ocean. The climate change signal will finally be discussed in the Indian Ocean. We will show, on the particular example of anoxic events along the west coast of India, how long-term trends and shorter-term variability can cause extreme events with important societal consequences.
K-L1.5-03
21st century projections for the Pacific
region
S. Power (1) ; M. Collins (2) ; K. Hennessy (3) ; E. Guilyardi (4) (1) Bureau of Meteorology, Cawcr, Melbourne, Australia; (2) Exeter University, Exeter, United Kingdom; (3) SCIRO, Dickson, Australia; (4) LOCEAN/IPSL, UPMC case 100, Paris, France
Here we will examine the latest scientific information available on projections for climate in the Pacific, and what this means for developing island states in the region. Particular attention will be paid to changes in surface temperature, winds, rainfall, El Nino, tropical cyclones, and ocean acidification, for different scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions. The continuing importance
of decadal climate variability for the region will also be highlighted. This presentation will draw upon the latest IPCC report and more recent research, including research conducted in the Pacific Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning Project.
K-L1.5-04
Southern Ocean in a changing climate
A. Thompson (1)
(1) Caltech , Los Angeles, United States of America
Recent Southern Ocean studies have suggested a slowdown of ocean carbon sequestration, an acidification of the water-masses, an overall warming and freshening in the vicinity of Antarctica, and drastic changes in sea-ice and sea-ice-shelf distributions. Observed changes are profound: the warming rate is faster than the global average, and occurs in the deepest layers of the ocean, therefore isolating the climate signal for decades to millennia ; ice-shelves are melting, which accelerates the discharge of the ice sheet via the ice streams, and has a direct and major impact on the global sea level rise. These important changes are directly related to the large-scale circulation of the Southern Ocean and the associated biogeochemistry. This talk aims at summarizing our current understanding of how the large-scale circulation of the Southern Ocean works, how it impacts the carbon cycle, and how interactions with the Antarctic cryosphere influence it.
O-L1.5-01
Future changes in the South Pacific
conver-gence zone and its tropical cyclones using
regional dynamical downscaling
M. Lengaigne (1) ; M. Bador (2) ; C. Menkes (3) ; J. Lefèvre (4) ; N. Jourdain (5) ; S. Jullien (6) ; P. Marchesiello (7) ; S. Thibaut (8) ; L. Terray (9)
(1) UPMC, Paris, France; (2) CERFACS, Climate Modelling and Global Change team, Toulouse, France, France; (3) IRD, LOCEAN, Noumea, New Caledonia; (4) IRD, Legos, Noumea, New Caledonia; (5) CNRS, Lgge, grenoble, France; (6) UPMC, Locean, Paris, France; (7) IRD, Legos, Toulouse, France; (8) CNRS, Legos, Toulouse, France; (9) CERFACS/CNRS, Sciences de l’Univers au CERFACS, URA1875, Toulouse, France The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is the largest convective area of the Southern Hemisphere and has been recognized as a hot spot for climate variability (CLIVAR, 2012) as its functioning is poorly understood. Regionally, the SPCZ is the main source of rainfall in a vast majority of the Southern Pacific Island nations and the strong precipitation gradients related to the SPCZ make local hydrological conditions very sensitive to small displacement of this rain belt. The interannual variability of the SPCZ location is related to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. El Niño events tend to occur accordingly with a northeastward displacement of the SPCZ, and La Niña events tend to occur with a southwestward displacement of the SPCZ. During strong El Niño events, the SPCZ undergoes an extreme swing by up to ten degrees of latitude toward the equator and collapses to a more zonally oriented structure. The SPCZ location not only strongly constrains the hydrological cycle but is also the breeding ground of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the South Pacific, as it combines all the large-scale atmospheric conditions that favor the genesis of TCs. Current climate models poorly reproduce the key characteristics of the SPCZ, leading to large uncertainties in the potential evolution of the South Pacific TC activity. Hence, assessing the SPCZ and its tropical cyclones in the future climate remains a challenge. Here, we use a dynamical downscaling approach. Using results from an ensemble of 14 CMIP3 climate models under the SRES-A2 greenhouse gas scenario, we force a regional configuration of the WRF atmospheric model. The configuration uses a two-way nesting approach to increase the spatial resolution from 1° to 1/3° in the SPCZ region. We first perform a control simulation forced by the NCEP2 reanalysis over the past 30 years, and a future
