Process towards the final NTP

(1)

NTP 2018-2029

Planning basis from Avinor, the Norwegian National Rail Administration, the Norwegian Coastal Administration,

(2)

Process towards the final NTP 2018-2029

• The basis documents were

handed to the Minister of Transport and

Communications on 29 February 2016

• Deadline for hearing

statements: 1 July 2016

• According to plan, the White Paper will be

presented to the Storting in the winter/spring of 2017

(3)

Developments and challenges

• Globalisation and

internationalisation

• Population growth

• Economic development

• Climate

• Technological

development

(4)

Norway’s population is growing

2015: 5.1 million

2040: 6.3 million Population figures as of 1 January - registered and stipulated

(5)

Frameworks and priorities

• Joint financial planning framework (ex. Avinor)

• Financial framework (baseline) of approx. NOK

60 bn/year incl.

Nye Veier AS

• 12-year plan; 4+2+6 years

• Major obligations

• Socio-economic profitability

• + civil protection and consistent

standards/development

(6)

Financial framework

Low 574 NTP 2014-23 664 Baseline 716 Medium 860 High 932 0 13 69 129

For new investments (NOK billion)

Nye Veier AS Operation, maintenance Backlog

Compulsory projects Urban Environment Agreements, incentive schemes

Priority areas and og guidelines

(7)

Issue-specific analyses

• Climate strategy

• Long-term railway strategy • Coastal Highway Route E39 • Progress plan for InterCity

development • Motorway plan

• Future capacity of Oslo Airport • New airport at Bodø

(8)

Greenhouse gas emissions from transport 2014

Varebiler og tunge kjøretøy 4,4 Sjøfart og fiske (innenriks) 3,5

Emissions to air (million tonnes Co₂ equivalents)

Source: Norwegian Environment Agency

Passenger cars 5.5 Other mobile sources 2.0 Air traffic (domestic) 1.4 Motorcycles and mopeds 0.1

Oil and gas

14.7 Transport 16.55 Industry 11.6 Agriculture 4.4 Energy supply 1.7 Construction 1.3 Waste

Total greenhouse gas emissions in Norway

Vans and heavy vehicles

4.6

Shipping and fishing (domestic) 2.9

(9)

Climate strategy

50 % reduction of emissions from transport by 2030

• Zero- and low-emission technology

• Sustainable biofuels • Private cars

– Objective: Zero growth in cities

• Transfer of goods from road to sea and railways

• Reduced emissions from construction, operation and maintenance

Foto: Knut Opeide

(10)

Climate strategy

Introduction of low- and zero-emission technology

• After 2025, new private cars, city buses and light vans are to be zero-emission vehicles

• By 2030, new heavy vans, 75 % of new long-distance buses, and 50 % of new lorries are to be

zero-emission vehicles

• By 2030, goods distribution in major uban centres are to be almost emission free

(11)

Zero-emission cars

• Tax exemptions to be

continued

• Facilitation (parking etc)

• Access to public

transport lanes where

they do not present a

major hindrance to

public transport

• Low rates at toll rings

• Ordinary rates at other

toll points and ferries

(12)

Climate strategy:

Introduction of low- and zero-emission technology

• New ferries and speed boats are to run on biofuels, low-or zero-emission technology • By 2025, shoreside electrical

power and charging power are to be available for ships in major ports

• By 2030, 40% of all ships in local shipping are to run on biofuels or be low-/zero-emission vessels

(13)

Cars in cities

• All private cars are covered by

the zero-growth objective

• Need for control of city traffic

– Environment- and time-differentiated toll rates

• Hybrids – a good interim

solution?

(14)

Operation, maintenance and renewal of

infrastructure on the coast and on roads and railways

• Ensure optimal standards

• Prioritise operation and

maintenance before investments

– All decay to be removed with the highest framework level (NOK 55-60 bn.)

• Climate changes pose new challenges

(15)

Urban areas

More people means more transport

1 200 000 400 000 280 000 _{240 000} 1 540 000 510 000 345 000 _{300 000} 0 200 000 400 000 600 000 800 000 1 000 000 1 200 000 1 400 000 1 600 000 1 800 000

Oslo/Akershus Bergens-området Trondheims-området Nord-Jæren

+ 28 %

(16)

More emphasis on

• Public transport • Walking

• Cycling

Requires more

co-ordinated land-use and transport planning

Foto: Knut Opeide

(17)

Stronger investment in urban areas

• NOK 66.5 bn with the medium and high framework alternatives

– NOK 23.6 bn for «50/50» public transport projects (50% from the national government)

– NOK 18.5 bn for public transport, walking and cycling

– NOK 7.8 bn for bicycle express routes – NOK 16.6 bn for incentives

• Nine urban areas eligible for urban environment agreements

• Proposal: Extend the zero-growth objective for passenger car traffic to more areas

• Change the framework for urban environment

(18)

More emphasis on public transport

Trains

• «Indre InterCity» (central InterCity network) • Improved route efficiency, increased frequency

Underground, city light rail

• Financing through the 50%50 scheme

Buses

• Public transport lanes as part of road projects

Subsidies for public transport

• Incentives

Foto: Knut Opeide

Foto: Øysten Grue Foto: Knut Opeide

(19)

Investment in cycling

• Cycling at express speed

The Oslo region:E6 Bryn – Lillestrøm and Rv163

Akershus border – Økern

Bergen: E39 Rådal – Bergen city centre

Trondheim:E6 Tiller and Heimdal – Rotvoll

Nord-Jæren: E39 Stavanger – Sandnes

Nedre Glomma: Grålum-Kalnes

Buskerudbyen: E134 Gulskogen – Mjøndalen

Grenland: Rv36 Vabakken – Gråtenmoen

Kristiansand: E18 Vollevann – Oddemarka –

Tordenskjoldsgate

Tromsø: E8 Solligården – Tromsgården – Tomasjord

• VAT exemption for electric bikes should be considered

(20)

Urban Environment Agreements

• An important tool in order to reach the

zero-growth objective

• Mutually binding agreements between the national government, county administration and the local government (municipality) • Agreement signed for Trondheim

(2016-2023)

• Agreements for Oslo/Akershus, Bergen and Nord-Jæren to be signed in 2016 according to plan

• Subsequently Tromsø, Kristiansand,

(21)

ITS

- for a sustainable transport system in urban

areas

• Traffic management

• Flexible payment

system

• Information flow

– Real-time information – Information about disruptions/delays – Accidents – Traffic flow

(22)

- 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Freight transport on Norwegian territory in

2030

Petroleum 21% Sea, other 58% Road 17% Rail 4% Air 0%

Transfer from road to rail and sea Growth towards 2030 Transport volume in 2013 Petroleum by sea in 2030 Petroleum by sea in 2013

(23)

• Sea transport dominates the transport volume – 83%

– 110 bn tonne-km by sea – 20 bn tonne-km by road – 4 bn tonne-km by rail

• Around 500 million tonnes are transported per year

– 260 million tonnes by road – 200 million tonnes by sea – 30 million tonnes by rail

Globalisation – increased transport needs

(24)

Increased goods transport – emissions

reduced by 50 %

Efficient and environmentally sound transport

• Incentives for zero and low emissions/ climate neutrality

• More load per transport • Improved efficiency

• Improved road access to ports and terminal

Transfer from roads to sea and railway

• Railways to become more reliable – increased capacity

• Incentives for transferring goods to sea – reduced costs

(25)

Transport safety

• Vision Zero – of no

fatalities or serious injuries in the transport system

• Road traffic as the major challenge

• Sea, air and rail transport are to maintain their current high safety levels

(26)

Road safety

Registered number of fatalities/serious

injuries and proposed target curve towards 2030

Foto: Knut Opeide

1593 840821 840 600 500 350 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 14 20 15 20 16 20 17 20 18 20 19 20 20 20 21 20 22 20 23 20 24 20 25 20 26 20 27 20 28 20 29 20 30 N um ber of f at al it ies /s er ious i nj ur ies

(27)

Civil protection, preparedness and climate

adaptation

Challenges related to • Climate change – Structural design (dimensions) of new infrastructure • Major accidents • Terrorist threats • Energy security • ICT security

(28)

International connections

• Railway connections

to Sweden

• Joint Barents

Transport Plan

• E8

• 3

rd

_runway,

Gardermoen

(29)

Motorway plan

(30)

Coastal Highway Route E39

– ferry free by 2035

Development strategy

• Technologically possible

– New technology for fiord crossings

• Possible from a planning

perspective

• Financially challenging

– NOK 10-20 bn. annual

investment costs to achieve the goal

(31)

Airport analyses

(32)

More efficient implementation of projects

• Coherent analysis, planning and building

• Earlier and better strategic decisions

• More use of central government plans

• Contracting stategies, e.g. PPP

(33)

Reforms

• Nye Veier AS –

«New Roads Ltd»

• Railway reform

Opening portfolio,

Nye Veier AS /«New

(34)

Joint focus on research and development

• Inter-agency R&D

co-operation

– Joint financing

– Improved utilisation of resources

– Share experience

• Five focus areas

• Transport analysis and methodology • Technology and ITS

• Environment and climate adaptation • Civil protection

• Improved efficiency in the planning

(35)

Road users and vehicles

• More cooperation to prevent and reveal illegal activity in the

sector

• EU regulations, increasing number

of supervisory tasks

• Focus on motorcycle acidents • Increased risk of accidents for

road users above the age of 75 • Overarching plan for the

(36)