TRANSPORTATION
LSC Transportation Consultants, Inc.
Amador County Transportation Commission
AMADOR COUNTY
Transit Development Plan
Final Report
Prepared for the
Amador County
Transit Development Plan
Final
Report
Prepared for the:
Amador County Transportation Commission
11400 American Legion Drive
Jackson, California 95642
(208) 223-2877
Prepared by:
LSC Transportation Consultants, Inc.
P.O. Box 5875
2690 Lake Forest Road, Suite C
Tahoe City, California 96145
(530) 583-4053
June
2
4
, 2008
Amador County TDP Executive Summary
The Amador County Transportation Commission (ACTC) retained LSC Transportation Consultants, Inc. to prepare a 5-Year Transit Development Plan to improve and enhance transit services for Fiscal Years (FY) 2008/09 to 2012/13, through June 30, 2013. This plan document first presents and reviews the characteristics of the study area, including demographic factors. A thorough review of existing land use and transportation plans is then presented. The operating history of transit services is reviewed, and demand for transit services in the study area evaluated. Finally, a detailed, financially constrained Transit Development Plan is presented for the future improvement in Amador Regional Transit System (ARTS) services.Study Area
This study considers the entirety of Amador County. Population of the area in 2007 is estimated based on U.S. Census data as 38,435. Excluding prison inmates, 18 percent was elderly (age 65 or above), 2.4 percent was mobility-limited (age 16-64), 8.0 percent were low-income, while 4.9 percent of households did not own a private vehicle. Population from 2000 to 2007 grew at 1.7 percent per year countywide. State projections identify a future countywide population of 54,788 by 2030. The study presents detailed information on travel and commute patterns.
Existing Transit Services
Amador County transit services are provided through a joint powers agreement between the County and its five incorporated cities. Existing services include local deviated fixed-route services (Routes C, I, K, M, P, R, S and V) as well as Route X Commuter Services to downtown Sacramento, and VMRC contract services. A Kirkwood Ski Shuttle service was initiated for the 2007/08 ski season. The service operates a total of 14 vehicles. Systemwide ridership in 2007 on all ARTS services was 104,113 one-way passenger-trips, an increase of 16 percent since FY 2001/02.
Other transit providers serving the study area consist of Blue Mountain Transit, the Amador Unified School District, two taxi companies, Jackson Rancheria services, visitor tour operators, and several social service programs. In addition, Calaveras Transit provides connecting public transit service between Jackson and Calaveras County to the south.
Transit Development Plan
Service Plan
Implement Jackson/Sutter Hill/Sutter Creek Express and Service Route Plan – Service to the Jackson/Sutter Hill/Sutter Creek area will be expanded to two routes: the “Service Route,” which provides service at major activity centers in the Jackson and Sutter Hill/Creek areas, and the “Express Route,” which will offer hourly headways and serve many of the activity centers and residential areas. Hours of operation will be roughly 8:00 AM through 6:00 PM. This service plan will substantially reduce in-vehicle travel times, provide more frequent and easy to use service, and serve new destinations
Eliminate Route R – Route R service will be eliminated, as it operates well below ARTS performance standards. This will save approximately $45,000 per year that can be better used for other services.
Revise and Expand Route I – To better serve commuters, students and other potential passengers, the Route I 10:00 AM departure from Sutter Hill will be eliminated, and morning and evening commute runs will be instituted.
Monitor the Kirkwood Skier Service in the 2008/09 Ski Season – The operation of the Kirkwood Skier Service will be monitored over the 2008/09, and marketing efforts expanded. If it does not attain minimum performance standards (based on the number of actual passengers served), the service will be eliminated.
Establish Service to the MACT Clinic – The MACT Clinic will be served on an on-call basis, with new runs provided between Sutter Hill and the clinic at approximately 9:30 AM and 3:30 PM, and deviation provided on the mid-day M4 run of Route M.
Improve the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) Policy – For ADA eligible passengers, deviations will be accommodated within three-quarters of a mile of the local fixed-routes. In addition, the ARTS Board will adopt a policy designating the Transit Manager as the ADA Administrator, and better define ADA policies.
Consider a Daffodil Hill Shuttle Service – If additional funding is available, ARTS will consider partnering to provide a seasonal shuttle between parking lots and the Daffodil Hill area.
Encourage Use of Foothill Rideshare – ARTS will encourage use of the Foothill Rideshare program to expand opportunities for commuters in and out of the Sacramento Valley Region, including
Stockton.
Reserve-A-Ride Taxicab Subsidy Program – A “Reserve-A-Ride” program will be instituted to provide Saturday and weekday evening service (Wednesday evening only, at least to start) through a private service subsidy program. This service is initially funded at $40,000 per year, though the details of this service are expected to change as actual ridership patterns are determined. Social Services Package Transportation – To make services more available to the outlying
communities of Amador County and the transit dependent population in these areas, a package transportation program will be offered for social service programs on specific ARTS runs, so long as passengers are not significantly delayed.
Revise Route M to Consistently Serve SR 88 in Buckhorn – Due to the low number of passengers boarding or alighting along Buckhorn Ridge Road, the additional running time needed to serve this road, and the benefits of providing a consistent service in both directions, Route M will be revised to use SR 88 except when deviation requests are received.
Monitor and Track On-Time Performance and Deviation Requests – To provide better data for refining schedules and improving on-time performance, ARTS will track the on-time performance of the buses and will revise the schedules as warranted to allow for adequate time in between the scheduled stops.
Implement a Transportation Reimbursement Program – The Transportation Reimbursement Program will be implemented to provide gas vouchers to qualified participants based on mileage estimates.
Capital Plan
Fleet Replacement and Expansion – While no additional vehicles are needed for the TDP
improvements, ARTS will need to replace six existing vehicles of the over the coming five years. In addition, particulate traps will be installed as needed to attain air quality requirements.
Improvements to Passenger Amenities and Bus Stops – Bus benches and shelters will be installed at major stops. Schedules will be posted at all stops with five or more passengers per day.
Improvements will also be made at the Main Street/California Street stop in Jackson.
Sutter Hill Transit Center –To be located on a parcel along Valley View Way, this center will provide a safe and attractive location for transfers between buses, for additional park-and-ride
activity, for driver breaks, and for pedestrian/bicycle access. Current cost estimates for this facility are on the order of $5.3 million, depending on final design.
Provide an On-Board Surveillance System – ARTS will install a mobile video surveillance system on all commuter and local route buses to enhance security for passengers, employees, and the general public.
Provide an Automatic Vehicle Location System –An Automatic Vehicle Location system will be implemented on the ARTS service to provide better “real time” information on vehicle location, improve emergency response, and reduce driver distraction.
Short-Range Institutional and Management Plan
Increased ARTS Role as Coordinated Transportation Service Agency – ARTS will maintain and expand coordination efforts with social service programs in the region.
Revise Unmet Needs Definition – ACTC will enact changes to the definition of “unmet need that is reasonable to meet” in order to make the unmet needs definition more clear and consistent.
Adopt Goals, Performance Measures, and Standards – ARTS will establish specific goals, performance measures and standards to better measure the efficiency/effectiveness of the service, and conduct bi-annual reviews of services
Marketing Improvements – ARTS will expand promotions through radio, newspaper and public access television, expand information to social service programs, develop and distribute rider information in Spanish, improve the agency website, and promote the connections available through ARTS to rail and air service in Sacramento.
Marketing/Special Project Position – ARTS will establish a part-time Marketing/Special Project position to enhance marketing efforts, help in the implementation of the TDP plan elements, and serve as the liaison with the Social Services Transportation Advisory Committee.
Hold Regular Staff Meetings With Bus Drivers and Maintenance Personnel – Existing driver safety meetings will be expanded to include discussions regarding service or passenger issues and potential solutions, with follow-up by administrative staff.
Provide Dispatch Service During All ARTS Operating Hours – ARTS will revise or expand dispatch hours to ensure that a dispatcher is available while all routes are in operation (until 7:15 PM).
Financial Plan
Modifications to Fares – Reflecting the increases in operating costs, the Local Route fare will be increased from $1.00 to $1.25 for the general public and from $0.50 to $0.60 for elderly/disabled. Monthly passes will be increased from $34 to $40 for the general public and from $17 to $20 for elderly/disabled. General public passengers will be charged an additional $1.00 per deviation request, while elderly/disabled passengers not qualified under the ADA will be charged $0.50. Fares for the Route X segment between Sutter Hill and Rancho Murieta will be increased from $1.25 to $1.75 for the general public and from $0.75 to $1.00 for senior/disabled. Additional fare increases may be necessary to address future changes in operating costs or subsidy funding.
Make Full Use of Existing Subsidy Funding Sources – ARTS existing funding sources (LTF, FTA, Sacramento County, Proposition 1B, CMAQ, Transportation Enhancement, etc.) will continue to be used to fund operating and capital plans.
Pursue a new FTA Section 5316 Jobs Access and Reverse Commute Grant – This source will be pursued to fund half of the increase in operating subsidies needed to provide the new Route S Express route, and to expand the schedule on Route I to serve commuters.
In total, operating revenues are forecast to exceed operating costs for every year of the plan. The financial plan indicates that the plan elements can be fully funded, while still generating a positive Capital Fund balance that will grow to approximately $898,000 by the end of the plan period. Overall, the TDP will expand transit ridership by at least 11 percent, will better allow ARTS services to serve a wider segment of the population, and will position the transit program to help the community address the expanding need for alternatives to private vehicle transportation.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Chapter
Page
1 Introduction ... 1
2 Setting for Transportation Services... 3
Amador County Background... 3
Major Transit Activity Centers ... 3
Employment... 6
Population... 7
Long Range Plans and Forecasts ... 13
Transit and Transportation Related Goals ... 27
3 Transportation Services... 31
Amador Regional Transit System... 31
Other Transportation Services in Amador County ... 54
4 Transit Demand Analysis ... 59
Existing Transit Demand ... 59
Forecast of Future Transit Demand ... 64
Unmet Needs Hearings ... 65
Rural Master Planned Community Transit Demand... 68
5 Amador County Goals and Objectives Analysis... 73
Background... 73
Review of Existing Adopted Goals ... 73
Recommended Goals, Performance Measures, and Standards... 76
6 Service Alternatives ... 83
Deviated Fixed-Route Service Alternatives ... 83
Commuter Service Alternatives... 92
Other Service Alternatives... 94
Comparison of Short-Range Service Alternatives... 102
7 Capital Alternatives... 111
Vehicle Alternatives ... 111
Passenger Facilities... 116
Advanced Public Transit System Technologies ... 118
8 Institutional and Management Alternatives ... 123
Increased ARTS Role as Coordinated Transportation Service Agency ... 123
Unmet Needs Definition ... 123
Marketing Improvements... 125
9 Financial Alternatives ... 131
Federal Transit Funding Sources ... 131
State Transit Funding Sources ... 133
Local Transit Funding Sources ... 134
10 Transit Development Plan... 139 Service Plan ... 139 Capital Plan... 148 Institutional/Management Plan ... 152 Financial Plan ... 158 Implementation Plan... 166 Appendix A – Boarding Activity Appendix B – Recommended Attachment A to Reserve-A-Ride Contract
LIST OF TABLES
Table
Page
1 Amador County Unemployment ... 62 Major Employers in Amador County... 8
3 Historical Amador County Population ... 8
4 Amador County 2000 Census Data by Tract ... 9
5 Amador County Mode to Work ... 16
6 Amador County Commuter Flow... 17
7 Amador County 2000 School Enrollment by Census Tract ... 19
8 Summary of Planned and Approved Large Residential Development in Amador County... 22
9 Amador County Population Forecast ... 23
10 Amador County Transportation Model Demographic Data... 24
11 Existing and Forecast Daily Traffic Volumes on Key Roadways in Amador County... 26
12 ARTS FY 2006-07 Revenues... 36
13 Local Transportation Fund History ... 37
14 ARTS Fiscal Year 2006-07 Expenses & Cost Allocation... 39
15 Annual Operating Data and Route Evaluation – Calendar Year 2007... 40
16 Annual ARTS Ridership by Route and Run – January 2007 through December 2007 ... 43
17 Monthly Ridership by Route – January 2007 through December 2007... 44
18 Annual Fare Passenger Type by Route, January 2007 through December 2007 ... 45
19 ARTS Vehicle Fleet ... 52
20 Estimated General Public Employee Transit Demand ... 60
21 Amador County Rural Non-Program Transit Demand ... 61
22 Amador County Rural Program-Related Transit Demand ... 62
23 Total Transit Demand in Amador County... 64
24 Forecast of Future Amador County Demand for Transit Service ... 66
25 Ridership Generated by Rural Master-Planned Communities ... 70
26 Amador County Goals and Standards for Transit Service ... 77
27 Amador County Service Alternatives ... 88
28 Amador County Transit Service Alternatives Performance Analysis... 103
29 Example of Simplified Schedule Format ... 129
30 Rural California Transit Systems Fare Review, 2008... 137
31 Peer Fare Review on Downtown Sacramento Commuter Services ... 137
32 Estimated Reserve-A-Ride Fares ... 146
33 CARB Compliance Schedule for ARTS Transit Fleet ... 150
34 ARTS Air & Rail Connections in Sacramento... 156
36 Amador County TDP – Estimated Ridership ... 161
37 Amador County TDP – Estimated Farebox Revenues... 162
38 Amador County TDP Capital Plan... 163
39 Amador County TDP Financial Plan ... 165
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure
Page
1 Amador County Site and Location Map ... 42 Amador County Population by Census Tract... 10
3 Amador County Elderly Population by Census Tract ... 11
4 Amador County Below Poverty by Census Tract ... 12
5 Amador County Zero Vehicle Households by Census Tract ... 14
6 Amador County Mobility Limited Population by Census Tract ... 15
7 Counties to which Amador County Residents Commute... 18
8 Counties from which Amador County Employees Commute... 18
9 Amador County Bus Routes... 33
10 Transportation Development Act Funding History... 38
11 Total Annual Ridership by Route, January 2007 – December 2007... 41
12 Annual Ridership Per Vehicle Service Hour by Route ... 47
13 Annual Ridership Per Vehicle Service Mile by Route... 47
14 Total Annual Operating Costs by Route ... 49
15 Annual Operating Cost Per Passenger Trip by Route ... 49
16 Annual Operating Farebox Return Ratio by Route ... 50
17 Annual Subsidy Per Passenger Trip by Route ... 50
18 Forecast of Future Transit Demand... 67
19 Sutter Creek – Jackson Fixed/Service Route Alternatives ... 85
20 Annual Ridership Change by Alternative ... 104
21 Annual Operating Subsidy Change by Alternative ... 105
22 Operating Subsidy Per Passenger Trip... 106
23 Passenger Trips Per Vehicle Service Hour ... 107
24 Alternative Farebox Return Ratio ... 108
25 Amador County Transit Plan ... 140
Chapter 1
Introduction
Transportation considerations play a key role in the quality of life provided by any community. Access to social services and medical services, employment opportunities, educational resources and basicnecessities are topics of universal concern, as they have a strong impact on the economy, ease of movement, and quality of life for the residents of an area. In addition to providing mobility to residents without easy access to a private automobile, transit services can provide a wide range of economic development and environmental benefits.
The Amador County Transportation Commission, aware of the importance of transportation issues, has retained LSC Transportation Consultants, Inc. to prepare a Transit Development Plan (TDP) for the County and its communities. This study provides an opportunity to develop plans that will tailor transit services to current conditions and guide the development of transit programs over the coming five years that will best match the expected changes in the region. While the primary goal is to provide effective transportation to all of those who need it, a number of issues are being closely evaluated in this study, including the following:
Population Growth and Development: The population of Amador County is expected to increase as a result of increased development, including casinos, large residential and commercial/retail
developments. Due to its proximity to Sacramento and other large employment areas as well as its attractive setting, the County is becoming a bedroom community, with residents commuting to these other areas. Further, the growth in population also includes an increase in the senior/aging population, of which many are transit dependent. Growth and new development patterns may warrant changes in current service strategies.
Transit Service Marketing: Ridership on the Amador County transit services has increased slightly over the past five years. While ridership has grown on the fixed routes, new services have been added that are not resulting in significant ridership numbers, including the ski shuttle to Kirkwood. Further, new services such as the Amador/Sacramento Express could attract many more riders than it has since the route’s inception. An increase in passengers due to new marketing efforts would help to alleviate the financial strain currently faced by ARTS due to lack of ridership on these services.
Coordination of Services: There are a variety of existing public, non-profit, and private transportation services serving Amador County. While some services benefit from shared management or operations (such as the ARTS contract for VMRC service), maximizing the coordination of services is a key strategy to make the most of limited funding for passenger transportation services.
Expanded Route and Casino Service:The Jackson Rancheria is the largest employer in the County, and therefore produces significant employee demand for transit. Further, new medical clinics serving low income and tribal residents located near the Jackson Rancheria casino are in high demand for transit service, as existing routes do not currently serve these areas adequately, particularly from Ione and Camanche where there are larger concentrations of low income housing development.
This study report presents and reviews the characteristics of the study area, including demographic factors. A thorough review of existing land use and transportation plans is then presented, focusing on the factors that impact the need for public transportation services. The operating characteristics of the transit services provided in the study area is then reviewed, and the lessons learned from the service changes
implemented as a result of previous plan efforts are analyzed. The document also includes an updated analysis of the demand for transit services in the study area through 2012/13. The final report affords the leaders and transportation providers of the area an opportunity to take an in-depth look at the transit system currently in place, choose the optimal manner in which transit can meet the public’s needs within this dynamic area, and carefully identify where transit resources should be devoted over the plan period.
Chapter 2
Setting For Transportation Services
AMADOR COUNTY BACKGROUND
Amador County is in the heart of California’s Gold Country, bordered by Sacramento County and San Joaquin County to the west, El Dorado County to the north, Alpine County to the east, and Calaveras County to the south. The closest major cities are Sacramento and Stockton (each about 45 miles from Amador County). The major north-south road is State Route (SR) 49, and the major east-west road is SR 88. The five incorporated cities of Amador County are Jackson (the County seat), Ione, Amador City, Plymouth and Sutter Creek. Figure 1 presents Amador County and its communities.
European settlement of Amador County accompanied the Gold Rush 150 years ago. Rich in history and agriculture (it is home to an increasing number of wineries), its tourism industry flourishes. Other industries in the County include lumber, mining, and agriculture. The County is also increasingly attractive as a second-home or retirement area.
Existing Land Use
Amador County, approximately 568 square miles in size, stretches from the Sacramento Valley, through the foothills to the Sierra Nevada mountain range. Elevations range from 200 feet in the west, to over 9,000 feet in the east, with a large diversity in climate and terrain. Development within the County is concentrated in Ione, Jackson, and Sutter Creek, with the unincorporated areas of the County growing the fastest, particularly in the “Upcountry” region of Pine Grove and Pioneer. The Jackson Rancheria casino, located off SR 88 east of Jackson, serves as a major activity and employment center for residents of the County and surrounding areas.
MAJOR
TRANSIT
ACTIVITY
CENTERS
It is helpful to identify the existing areas in Amador County that may generate transit ridership. Below are lists of major community activity centers in Amador County based on the type of person or activity being served. They include the following:
Retail Concentrations
The primary retail-shopping areas in Amador include Plymouth, Sutter Creek, Martell, Jackson, Ione Pine Grove, and Pioneer. Other retail centers include:
Ione: Downtown on Preston Avenue and Main Street
Martell: K-Mart, Wal-Mart, the Amador Plaza shopping center on SR 88, and the Martell Business Park between SR 49, 88, and 104
Jackson: Along SR 49 Pine Grove: Primarily along SR 88
Plymouth: Primarily along Main Street and SR 49
Pioneer: Primarily along SR 88
Sutter Creek: Downtown (Old Hwy 49) and Sutter Hill (SR 49/104)
CALA VERAS COUNTY 50 49 16 124 104 49 4 26 88 88 TUOLUMNE COUNTY EL DORADO COUNTY BUENA VIST A IONE JACKSON AMADOR CITY AMADOR CITY PL YMOUTH PINE GROVE PINE GROVE CAMANCHE RIVER PINES RIVER PINES FIDDLET OWN SUTTER CREEK SUTTER CREEK SUTTER HILL SUTTER HILL VOLCANO PIONEER COOKS ST A TION COOKS ST A TION HAMS ST A TION HAMS ST A TION 104 4 MACE MEADOW MACE MEADOW AMADOR COUNTY
Amador
County
Site
and
Location
Map
TRANSPORTATION CONSULTANTS, INC. AaAMADORSITE SCALE 0 IN MILES 5 MAJOR HIGHW AYS MAJOR ROADS/MINOR HIGHW AYS LAKES COUNTY BOUNDAR Y URBAN AREA TOWN LEGENDFIGURE
1
Activity Centers for Seniors, Persons with Disabilities, and Low-Income Persons
Amador County Department of Social Services/Mental Health Services 10877 Conductor Blvd Sutter Creek, CA
Amador Residential Care 155 Placer Drive, Jackson (assisted Senior living) Amador County Senior Center
229 New York Ranch Road, Jackson
Amador-Tuolumne Community
Action Agency
935 South SR 49, Jackson The Arc of Amador and Calaveras
75 Academy Drive, Jackson
WIC Program
Amador and Calaveras Counties 12356 Martell Road, Martell The Arc Whole Life Services
218 Water Street, Jackson, CA
Jackson Gardens Elder Care Home 185 Placer Drive, Jackson, CA Gold Quartz Inn Senior Retirement Home
15 Bryson Drive, Sutter Creek
Oak Manor Senior Retirement Home 223 New York Ranch Road, Jackson
Medical Facilities
Sutter Amador Hospital 200 Mission Blvd., Jackson
Kit Carson Nursing & Rehabilitation Center 811 Court Street, Jackson
Plymouth Center
9279 Locust Street, Plymouth
Sutter Amador Pediatric
601 Court Street, Suite 200, Jackson Pioneer Center
24685 SR 88, Pioneer
Jackson Rancheria Health Complex 15515 Dalton's Drive, Jackson Sutter Amador Women’s Services
100 Mission Blvd., Suite 2800, Jackson
Sutter Amador Family Practice 255 New York Ranch Road, Jackson
Government
Jackson City Hall 33 Broadway, Jackson
Amador City Hall 14531 E. School Street Municipal Court and Superior Court
500 Argonaut Lane, Jackson
Amador County Offices 810 Court Street, Jackson Public Health Department
10877 Conductor Blvd, Sutter Creek
Ione City Hall
1 East Main Street, Ione Sutter Creek City Hall
18 Main Street, Sutter Creek
Plymouth City Hall
9426 Main Street, Plymouth
Recreation & Tourism
Shenandoah Valley Wineries
Jackson Rancheria Casino, Hotel and Conference Center, Jackson
Black Chasm Cavern, Pine Grove
Kirkwood Ski Resort, Kirkwood
TABLE 1: Amador County Unemployment
Year Amador County State of California2002 5.8% 6.7% 2003 6.2% 6.8% 2004 5.8% 6.2% 2005 5.6% 5.4% 2006 5.3% 4.9% 2007 6.8% 6.1%
Source: California Employment Development Department, 2008.
Amador County Fairgrounds, Plymouth
Lake Pardee Marina, Ione
Lake Amador
Lake Tabeau
Amador County Recreation Agency (ACRA)
Education
Argonaut High School 501 Argonaut Lane, Jackson
Jackson Elementary School 220 Church Street
Amador High School
330 Spanish Street, Sutter Creek
Jackson Jr. High 333 Rex Avenue
Independence High School
525 Independence Drive, Sutter Creek (alternative and adult education)
Pine Grove Elementary 20101 SR 88
Ione Elementary School 415 South Ione Street
Pioneer Elementary 24625 SR 88
Sutter Creek Primary School 110 Broad Street
Plymouth Elementary Fair and Main Street
Ione Junior High School 430 Mill Street
Sutter Creek Elementary 340 Spanish Street
EMPLOYMENT
Amador has recorded an increasing civilian labor force, from an average of 15,616 in 2002 to an average of 17,670 in 2007. However, the County experienced increasing unemployment rates over these years. In recent years, the unemployment rates in Amador County have been slightly higher than the state average, ranging from 5.8 percent in 2002 to 6.8 percent in 2007, as presented in Table 1.
MajorEmployers
Table 2 lists the major employers in Amador County. As presented, the top employer is the Jackson Rancheria located outside of Jackson, which employs over ten percent of the Countywide labor force. Other large employers include Mule Creek State Prison, Kirkwood Mountain Ski Resort, area schools, government agencies, Sutter Amador Hospital and numerous retail businesses.
POPULATION
Table 3 presents the historical population growth for the County. As indicated, the population has increased from 11,821 in 1970 to 35,400 in 2000 to an estimated 38,435 in 2007. Of the total population in 2000, the US Census indicates that 3,582 were in correctional institutions (virtually all in Mule Creek State Prison near Ione). The prison currently houses 3,832 inmates, indicating that the 2007 Countywide population excluding prison inmates is approximately 34,603. Between 1990 and 2000, Amador County’s population increased by 5,361, or 1.7 percent annually. The growth in Amador County from 2000 to 2007 is slightly more than the statewide average, which grew by 1.5 percent per year in the same period. Ione is the largest city in Amador County (7,842), followed by Jackson (4,317) and Sutter Creek (2,945).
Transit-Dependent Population
Nationwide, transit system ridership is drawn largely from various groups of persons who make up what is often called the “transit dependent” population. This category includes elderly persons, persons with disabilities, low-income persons, and members of households with no available vehicles. There is considerable overlap among these groups.
Table 4 presents the transit dependent population by census tract in Amador County from the 2000 U.S. Census. Figure 2 presents the census divisions in the area, as well as the population in each census tract. As presented in the table, the Countywide population in 2000 was 35,100 (per Census data, including prison inmates). Tract 3.02, which includes portions of Jackson and Sutter Creek west of SR 49, as well as the southern half of Ione and all of Camanche Village, is the most populous tract with 7,067 residents. Tract 1, which includes the “upcountry” areas including Kirkwood, Volcano and Pioneer, is the second most populous, with 6,076 residents.
There are an estimated 6,329 persons aged 65 or over residing in the study area (or 18.0 percent of the total population). This percentage is especially high – 26.0 percent – in Tract 4.01 (the heart of the County including portions of Jackson and Sutter Creek east of SR 49). The upcountry area (Tract 1) also has a high percentage of elderly (24.7 percent). Only 3.9 percent of the population of Tract 3.01 (which includes the north portion of Ione) is aged 65 or over, though this reflects prison inmates in the total population. This data is presented graphically in Figure 3.
The number of low-income persons, another likely market for transit services, is measured by the number of persons living below the poverty level. An estimated 2,808 people live below the poverty level within the study area, representing 8.0 percent of the total population (compared with 13.9 percent statewide). The percentage of those persons living below poverty status is highest (around 10 percent) in Tracts 1, 2, and 3.02 (the eastern, northern, and southeastern portions of the County, respectively). See Figure 4 for details.
The number of households without access to an available vehicle is estimated at 738, as presented in the Table 4 above. This represents 4.9 percent of the total households in the area (compared with 8.9 percent statewide). The percentage of zero-vehicle households is highest in Tract 5 (the southern portion of the
TABLE 2: Major Employers in Amador County
Employer
Number of Employees
Jackson Rancheria 2,000
Mule Creek State Prison 1,300
Kirkwood Mountain Ski Resort (winter) 800 Amador Unified School District 600
County of Amador 540
Preston School of Industry 520
Sutter Amador Hospital 400
Wal-Mart 290
Volcano Telephone Company 110
Raley's Grocery Store 100
Kit Carson Care Center 150
Safeway Stores, Inc. 150
Lowe's 130
Renwood Winery 120
K-Mart 85
Prospect Motors 95
Albertsons 79
Pine Grove Group 70
North American Refactories 60
ACM Machinery 60
One-Stop Markets 55
Source: Amador County Chamber of Commerce
TABLE 3: Historical Amador County Population
Year Countywide Population Annual Growth Rate
1970 11,821 --1980 19,314 5.0% 1990 30,039 4.5% 2000 35,400 1.7% 2007 38,435 1.2% Amador City 214 --Ione 7,842 --Jackson 4,317 --Plymouth 1,050 --Sutter Creek 2,945 --Unincorporated 22,067
--Source: California Department of Finance Demographic Research Unit, 2008.
TABLE 4: Amador County 2000 Census Data by Tract Total Population In Correctional Facility Not In Correctional Facility Housing Units Total Percent of Tract Total Percent of Tract Total Percent of Tract Age 16 to 64 Percent of Tract 1 High Country (Kirkwood, Pioneer) 6,076 0 6,076 3,870 1,500 24.7% 596 9.8% 94 2.4% 132 2.2% 2 North County
(Plymouth, Amador City)
4,496 0 4,496 2,155 786 17.5% 466 10.4% 65 3.0% 116 2.6% 3.01 Northwest County
(Part of Ione, to Sac. Co. line)
5,655 3,457 2,198 586 219 3.9% 100 1.8% 48 8.2% 46 0.8% 3.02 Southwest County
(Parts of Ione & Sutter Creek)
7,067 0 7,067 3,005 967 13.7% 722 10.2% 129 4.3% 185 2.6% 4.01 Central County
(parts of Sutter Creek, Jackson, Pine Grove)
4,480 25 4,455 2,100 1,165 26.0% 334 7.5% 139 6.6% 92 2.1% 4.02 Central County
(parts of Jackson, Rancheria, Pine Grove)
4,666 80 4,586 2,057 1,152 24.7% 377 8.1% 127 6.2% 197 4.2% 5 South County
(parts of Jackson, Pine Acres)
2,660 0 2,660 1,262 540 20.3% 213 8.0% 136 10.8% 87 3.3% Amador County 35,100 3,562 31,538 15,035 6,329 18.0% 2,808 8.0% 738 4.9% 855 2.4% State of California 33,871,648 12,214,549 3,586,794 10.6% 4,706,130 13.9% 1,091,214 8.9% 1,718,472 5.1%
Source: U.S. Census and LSC Transportation Consultants, Inc.
Mobility-Limited
Residents
Census Tract Number & Area Description
Elderly Residents
(age 65+)
Persons Living Below Poverty
Status
Amador
County
Population
by
Census
T
ract
TRANSPORTATION CONSULTANTS, INC. AMADORTRACTS SCALE 0 IN MILES 5 MAJOR ROADS/HIGHW AYS LAKES COUNTY BOUNDAR Y TOWN CENSUS TRACT BOUNDAR Y CENSUS TRACT NUMBER 2000 POPULA TION LEGEND $ 100 100FIGURE
2
49 124 104 88 BUENA VIST A IONE JACKSON AMADOR CITY AMADOR CITY PL YMOUTH PINE GROVE PINE GROVE RIVER PINES RIVER PINES FIDDLET OWN SUTTER CREEK SUTTER CREEK SUTTER HILL SUTTER HILL VOLCANO PIONEER COOKS ST A TION COOKS ST A TION HAMS ST A TION HAMS ST A TION 16 88 49 104 0600500302 7,067 0600500301 5,655 0600500200 4,496 0600500100 6,076 0600500402 4,666 0600500401 4,480 0600500500 2,66049 124 104 88 BUENA VIST A IONE JACKSON AMADOR CITY AMADOR CITY PL YMOUTH PINE GROVE PINE GROVE RIVER PINES RIVER PINES FIDDLET OWN SUTTER CREEK SUTTER CREEK SUTTER HILL SUTTER HILL VOLCANO PIONEER COOKS ST A TION COOKS ST A TION HAMS ST A TION HAMS ST A TION 16 88 49 104
Amador
County
Elderly
Population
by
Census
T
ract
TRANSPORTATION CONSULTANTS, INC. AMADOROLD SCALE 0 IN MILES 5 MAJOR ROADS/HIGHW AYSLAKES TOWN CENSUS
TRACT BOUNDAR Y 0-10% ELDERL Y POPULA TION 10-20% ELDERL Y POPULA TION 20-26% ELDERL Y POPULA TION 26-27% ELDERL Y POPULA TION LEGEND $
FIGURE
3
49 124 104 88 BUENA VIST A IONE JACKSON AMADOR CITY AMADOR CITY PL YMOUTH PINE GROVE PINE GROVE RIVER PINES RIVER PINES FIDDLET OWN SUTTER CREEK SUTTER CREEK SUTTER HILL SUTTER HILL VOLCANO PIONEER COOKS ST A TION COOKS ST A TION HAMS ST A TION HAMS ST A TION 16 88 49 104
Amador
County
Below
Poverty
Level
by
Census
T
ract
TRANSPORTATION CONSULTANTS, INC. AMADORPOOR SCALE 0 IN MILES 5 MAJOR ROADS/HIGHW AYSLAKES TOWN CENSUS
TRACT BOUNDAR Y 0-7.3% BELOW POVER TY POPULA TION 7.3-8% BELOW POVER TY POPULA TION 8-10.3 BELOW POVER TY POPULA TION 10.3-1 1% BELOW POVER TY POPULA TION LEGEND $
FIGURE
4
County including portions of Jackson and Pine Acres), where 10.8 percent of the households have no access to a vehicle, followed by Tract 3.01 (the northwest portion of the County, excluding prison inmates), where 8.2 of the households have no access to a vehicle. Only 3.0 percent or fewer of the households in Tracts 1 and 2 have no access to a vehicle. This is presented graphically in Figure 5. The Census Bureau defines “mobility limited” as having a health condition lasting more than six months that makes it difficult to go outside alone. Currently it is estimated that 855 mobility-limited persons between the ages of 16 and 64 reside in the study area, which comprise 2.4 percent of the County’s population. Statewide, the percent of persons who were reported as mobility-limited in this age range in 2000 was 5.1 percent. The majority of those with mobility limitations reside in Tract 4.02 in the central portion of the County (197 residents) and Tract 1 in the high country (132 residents). This information is presented graphically in Figure 6.
Means of Transportation to Work
Table 5 presents the means of transportation to work for employed Amador County residents according to the 2000 U.S. Census. Countywide, 67.9 percent of employed residents drove alone, while 19.2 percent carpooled (compared with 71.8 percent and 14.5 percent statewide). In addition, 5.6 percent walked, 1.6 percent bicycled, 0.1 percent used public transportation, 1.9 percent used other means of transport, and 3.6 percent worked at home. All of the workers who used public transit resided in Tracts 1, 2 and 4.01.
Commute Patterns
Commuting patterns to and from Amador County are presented in Table 6 and in Figures 7 and 8. As presented, the large majority of Amador County employed residents work within the County. In terms of external commuters, 10.3 percent of Amador County employed residents work in Sacramento County and 9.5 percent of Calaveras County employed residents work in Amador County. Relatively few Amador County employed residents work in nearby San Joaquin County (4.4 percent) or Calaveras County (2.5 percent).
School Enrollment
Students, particularly between the ages of 10 and16, are another population element with a relatively high potential to use transit services. Table 7 presents school enrollment figures. As indicated, a total of 8,109 students reside in the County. Of these, 1,810 students (5.3 percent of the Countywide population) are in the age range most likely to need transportation to and from school or to after school programs. The
Amador Community Assessment (2005) shows that Kindergarten - 12 school enrollment has remained
relatively steady from 2000 to 2003. Special education enrollment increased by 6.2 percent from 2000 to 2003.
LONG RANGE PLANS AND FORECASTS
Planned Land UseAmador County is steadily growing. The County, which is heavily dependent on tourism, is slowly developing other industries as well. Major casinos, such as the Jackson Rancheria, have been developed, with the potential for other casinos in the Ione and Plymouth areas. Further, expansion of the Kirkwood Ski area results in increased tourist-based population, while more business and commercial developments are planned, particularly in the Martell, Jackson, Sutter Creek (Sutter Hill), Ione, and Plymouth areas. In
49 124 104 88 BUENA VIST A IONE JACKSON AMADOR CITY AMADOR CITY PL YMOUTH PINE GROVE PINE GROVE RIVER PINES RIVER PINES FIDDLET OWN SUTTER CREEK SUTTER CREEK SUTTER HILL SUTTER HILL VOLCANO PIONEER COOKS ST A TION COOKS ST A TION HAMS ST A TION HAMS ST A TION 16 88 49 104
Amador
County
Zero
V
ehicle
Households
by
Census
T
ract
TRANSPORTATION CONSULTANTS, INC. AMADORMOBILITY SCALE 0 IN MILES 5 MAJOR ROADS/HIGHW AYSLAKES TOWN CENSUS
TRACT BOUNDAR Y 0-4% ZERO VEHICLE HOUSEHOLDS 4-5% ZERO VEHICLE HOUSEHOLDS 5-8% ZERO VEHICLE HOUSEHOLDS 8-12% ZERO VEHICLE HOUSEHOLDS LEGEND $
FIGURE
5
49 124 104 88 BUENA VIST A IONE JACKSON AMADOR CITY AMADOR CITY PL YMOUTH PINE GROVE PINE GROVE RIVER PINES RIVER PINES FIDDLET OWN SUTTER CREEK SUTTER CREEK SUTTER HILL SUTTER HILL VOLCANO PIONEER COOKS ST A TION COOKS ST A TION HAMS ST A TION HAMS ST A TION 16 88 49 104
Amador
County
Mobility
Limited
Population
by
Census
T
ract
TRANSPORTATION CONSULTANTS, INC. AMADORMOBILITY SCALE 0 IN MILES 5 MAJOR ROADS/HIGHW AYSLAKES TOWN CENSUS
TRACT BOUNDAR Y 0-2% MOBILITY LIMITED POPULA TION 2-2.4% MOBILITY LIMITED POPULA TION 2.4-3% MOBILITY LIMITED POPULA TION 3-4.5% MOBILITY LIMITED POPULA TION LEGEND $
FIGURE
6
TABLE 5: Amador County Mode to Work Drove alone Carpooled Railroad Motorcycle Bicycle Walked Other Means Worked at Home 1 High Country (Kirkwood, Pioneer) 1,633 372 8 8 10 0 64 25 138 2 North County
(Plymouth, Amador City)
1,633 301 19 0 8 4 52 8 104 3.01 Northwest County
(Part of Ione, to Sac. Co. line)
366 140 0 0 33 0 82 1 38 3.02 Southwest County
(Parts of Ione & Sutter Creek)
2,646 359 0 0 0 7 158 25 125 4.01 Central County
(parts of Sutter Creek, Jackson, Pine Grove)
1,519 174 12 0 6 0 59 0 101 4.02 Central County
(parts of Jackson, Rancheria, Pine Grove)
1,438 227 0 0 0 18 20 20 110 5 South County
(parts of Jackson, Pine Acres)
1,043 149 0 0 0 0 28 7 88 Amador County 10,278 1,722 39 8 57 29 463 86 704
Percent of Countywide Workers
(1) 85.7% 14.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 3.9% 0.7% 5.9% State of California 10,432,462 2,113,313 736,037 41,022 36,262 120,567 414,581 395,582 557,036
Percent of Statewide Workers
83.2% 16.8% 5.9% 0.3% 0.3% 1.0% 3.3% 3.2% 4.4%
Note 1: The percentages only account for those persons who worked outside the home. Source: U.S. Census Bureau and LSC Transportation Consultants, Inc.
Public
Transportation:
Car, truck, or van
TABLE 6: Amador County Commuter Flow
Amador Residents Commuting To… Amador Employees Commuting From…
County of Workplace Number Percent County of Residence Number Percent
Amador 9,843 73.6% Amador 9,843 77.4%
Sacramento 1,375 10.3% Calaveras 1,211 9.5%
San Joaquin 585 4.4% Sacramento 580 4.6%
Calaveras 331 2.5% El Dorado 369 2.9%
El Dorado 257 1.9% San Joaquin 306 2.4%
Santa Clara 150 1.1% Other CA Counties 2 131 1.0%
Other CA Counties1 135 1.0% Tuolumne 93 0.7%
Alameda 114 0.9% Stanislaus 68 0.5%
Yolo 113 0.8% Placer 40 0.3%
Out of State 107 0.8% Los Angeles 32 0.3%
San Francisco 79 0.6% Butte 23 0.2%
Placer 78 0.6% Solano 21 0.2%
Alpine 60 0.4% San Bernardino 19 0.1%
San Mateo 42 0.3% Nevada 12 0.1%
Contra Costa 37 0.3% Madera 4 0.0%
Mariposa 29 0.2% Total 12,717 100%
Nevada 22 0.2%
Fresno 21 0.2%
Total 13,378 100%
Note 1: Includes 17 counties with less than 20 residents who commuted from Amador County. Note 2: Includes 12 counties with less than 20 employees who commuted to Amador County.
FIGURE 7: Counties to which Amador County Residents Commute Amador 73.6% Calaveras 2.5% El Dorado 1.9% Sacramento 10.3% San Joaquin 4.4% Others 7.4% Amador 77.2% Calaveras 9.5% El Dorado 2.9% Sacramento 4.5% San Joaquin 2.4% Others 3.5%
TABLE 7 : Amador County 2000 School Enrollment by Census Tract Total Population Preschool Kindergarten Elementary (1 -4) Elementary (5-8) High School (9-12) College Total Population In School Not in School 1 High Country (Kirkwood, Pioneer) 5,781 34 75 319 322 251 76 1,077 4,704 2 North County
(Plymouth, Amador City)
4,362 37 43 198 259 272 117 926 3,436 3.01 Northwest County
(Part of Ione, to Sac. Co. line)
5,628 41 17 95 94 985 302 1,534 4,093 3.02 Southwest County
(Parts of Ione & Sutter Creek)
6,820 77 134 442 455 637 282 2,027 4,793 4.01 Central County
(parts of Sutter Creek, Jackson, Pine Grove)
4,366 72 28 203 250 286 123 962 3,404 4.02 Central County
(parts of Jackson, Rancheria, Pine Grove)
4,542 77 12 230 251 297 78 945 3,597 5 South County
(parts of Jackson, Pine Acres)
2,811 50 22 120 179 182 85 638 2,173 Amador County 34,310 388 331 1,607 1,810 2,910 1,063 8,109 26,200
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
total, the County has approved or is currently reviewing applications that would result in over 6,500 new residential housing units1. The following is a summary of the more prominent and large-scale
development projects that are in review or have been recently approved:
Wicklow Subdivision: This project is situated on approximately 201 acres in the Martell area of the County, and would include nearly 750 new single- and multi-family residential units, as well as 26 acres of commercial space. The project is currently in the EIR stage.
Golden Vale: The Golden Vale subdivision includes 607 single- and multi-family residential units and commercial space on 383 acres in Martell. This project is currently in the review stage in the Planning Department.
Creekside at Jackson: Located in Jackson along the South Jackson SR 49 corridor, this project proposes 400 residential units on 277 acres. The project is currently being reviewed by the County’s Planning Department.
Jackson Hills: This proposal located along the South Jackson SR 49 corridor in Jackson includes 540 new residential units on 516 acres. It is estimated that the project would produce nearly 1,300 new residents, should the project be built per the current proposal. The project has been given tentative approval by the City.
Zinfandel: The Zinfandel proposal, located in Plymouth along the SR 49/SR 16 corridor, includes 355 residential units on 150 acres. This project is currently in the EIR stage.
Gold Rush: The largest of the currently proposed or approved projects, this proposal would include 1,334 new residential units on 945 acres, 300 timeshare units at the Golf Course and a 60-room hotel, along the Ridge and SR 88 corridor in the Sutter Creek/Sutter Hill area. The golf course and
condominium portions of the proposal have been approved, and the single-family homes and hotel portions are currently under review.
Sierra West Business Park: This proposal, located in Martell, was approved by the County and includes over 70 acres of commercial development.
Martell Business Park: Located in Martell, the Martell Business Park includes approximately 374 acres of commercial land uses. This project has been approved by Amador County.
Gold Country Plaza at Sutter Hill: This commercial project located in Sutter Hill at the SR 49 and SR 104 intersection proposes 139,430 square feet of commercial space on 11.6 acres. The project has been approved.
In addition to the above projects, other residential proposals have been submitted to or approved by the County in all areas, ranging from 5 units to over 300 units. The Kirkwood Ski area is also being
expanded, with approximately 113 residential condos, townhouses and building lots approved. Further, a number of the projects proposed in the County are designated as “mixed-use” developments where, in addition to residential uses, commercial/retail land uses are also incorporated. An example is the Gold Village project near Ione, which includes 49 single-family lots, 101 multi-family units, 29,400 square feet of retail and 2,100 square feet of office space.
1
Amador County Planning Department maintains an inventory of approved or planned major residential projects throughout the County, which provides a useful picture of the scope and location of new development currently “in the works.” As shown in Table 8, as of 2007 there were developments either approved or in the planning process that would add approximately 6,494 new dwelling units
(approximately a 50 percent increase over the current Countywide total housing stock). By community, the largest proportion (27 percent, or 1,737 units) are planned in the Sutter Creek area, followed closely by 22 percent (1,407 units) in the Jackson area, and 21 percent (1,357 units) in the Martell area.
Considered by roadway corridor, the highest proportion of development is located along the SR 88 Upcountry Corridor (31 percent, or 2,023 units).
Amador County’s General Plan is currently in the process of being updated, which would include changes to the existing land use plan. The new Plan, applicable through 2030, proposes modifications to the land use classification system due to current development trends, changes in state land use law, and
community interests. Modifications include new allowable densities and intensities, new special planning area designations, removal of outdated classifications, and expansion of land use classification
boundaries.
As the General Plan is in the development stage and has not yet been approved, three alternatives discuss the concentration of development and growth in various existing communities of the County. Alternative “A” assumes that the existing trends in growth will continue, with residential development occurring in existing Residential-Rural and Agricultural-Transition areas outside of defined communities and in
Residential-Low Density and Residential-Medium Density within or adjacent to rural communities.
Alternative “B” introduces small service centers and encourages focused growth in existing communities and a potential new community in the western portion of the County. Alternative “C” introduces a larger number of service centers and broader agricultural designations that would focus more development into existing communities and add a possible new community in Western Amador County.
It should be noted that there is currently a high degree of uncertainty regarding long-range development potential, particularly in the more rural portions of the County. A good example is the “Rancho Arroyo Seco” proposal, which could potentially result in the development of up to 2,200 acres of land west of Ione. This is the possible “new community” mentioned above in General Plan Alternatives B and C. It could include anywhere from 7,000 to 17,000 homes, as well as several hundred thousand square feet of commercial uses. In addition, the two possible Indian Gaming projects (which are impacted by
considerations beyond local land use controls) also have a high degree of uncertainty as to the scale and timing of ultimate development.
Demographic Forecasts
The California Department of Finance has projected the population for Amador County in ten-year increments, as presented in Table 9. The Countywide population growth rate is expected to remain relatively steady through 2020, averaging approximately 1.7 percent growth per year. According to the Department of Finance, the population in Amador County will increase by approximately 42.5 percent by the year 2030 from 2007 levels.
Table 9 also presents population projections by age. These forecasts are useful in considering future trends in demand for transit services:
Countywide total population is forecast to increase by 19,431 or 55 percent between 2000 and 2030.
Almost half (47 percent) of this future growth in population by 2030 will consist of elderly residents (defined by age 60 and above), which are forecast to increase by a full 9,083.
TABLE 8: Summary of Planned and Approved Large Residential Development in Amador County
Number of Dwelling Units
Ridge/88 49 French Bar NY Ranch N. Main 88 49/16 Gopher Flat 88 104 124/104 Other Total by Area % of Total Buckhorn 74 00000000000 7 4 1 % Mace Meadows 59 00000000000 5 9 1 % Pioneer 202 00000000000 2 0 2 3 % Pine Grove 354 00000000000 3 5 4 5 % Jackson 0 167 1,011 200 29 0000000 1,407 22% Martell 00000 1,357 000000 1,357 21% Plymouth 000000 5 0 0 00000 5 0 0 8 % Sutter Creek 1,334 50 00000 2 3 0 000 1 2 3 1,737 27% Buena Vista 00000000 9 0 000 9 0 1 % Ione 000000000 3 8 6 3 2 8 0 7 1 4 1 1 % Total by Corridor 2,023 217 1,011 200 29 1,357 500 230 90 386 328 123 6,494 100% % of Total 31% 3% 16% 3% 0% 21% 8% 4% 1% 6% 5% 2% 100%
Source: Amador County Planning Department
C o m m u n i t y
Within this elderly population increase, more than half (52 percent) will consist of older seniors age 75 and above that are more likely to need “door to door” transportation services.
Following the aging of the Baby Boom generation, the greatest increase in younger seniors will occur between 2010 and 2020, followed by the greatest increase in older seniors between 2020 and 2030.
The number of children (less than 10 years of age) and youth (age 10 to 19) is actually forecast to drop slightly between 2000 and 2010, followed by a consistent increase. Any appreciable increase in youth population (a group with a relatively high demand for transit service) does not occur until after 2020.
Overall, these forecasts indicate substantial shifts in the demand for public transportation services over the long term, particularly towards increasing needs for seniors.
Long-Range Population and Land Use Forecasts by District
In addition to the inventory of land use plans currently approved or proposed as presented in Table 8, above, another source of land use forecasts that focuses on long-range conditions is provided in the Amador County Regional Transportation Plan Update (ACTC, 2004). Table 10 presents a summary of key land use data by general community area (not specifically for the areas of incorporation), for both 2000 and 2004 (the years evaluated in the TransCAD traffic model currently available). These forecasts indicate the following:
Total housing units will increase by 10,576 (or 81 percent over 2000 totals), of which 8,875 are single family units and 1,701 are multifamily units.
TABLE 9: Amador County Population Forecast
2000 2010 2020 2030 Change 2000 - 2030 % Change 2000 - 2030 Total Population 35,357 40,337 47,593 54,788 19,431 55% Subtotal by Age Children (0 to 9 yrs) 3,308 3,082 4,309 4,477 1,169 35% Youth (10 to 19 yrs) 4,855 4,765 4,818 6,168 1,313 27% Adult (20 to 64 yrs) 20,780 24,017 26,357 28,646 7,866 38%
Younger Senior (65 to 74 yrs) 3,480 4,746 6,922 7,780 4,300 124%
Older Senior (75+ yrs) 2,934 3,727 5,187 7,717 4,783 163%
Change by Decade
Total Population -- 4,980 7,256 7,195
Children (0 to 9 yrs) -- -226 1,227 168
Youth (10 to 19 yrs) -- -90 53 1,350
Adult (20 to 64 yrs) -- 3,237 2,340 2,289
Younger Senior (65 to 74 yrs) -- 1,266 2,176 858
Older Senior (75+ yrs) -- 793 1,460 2,530
Percent of Total
Children (0 to 9yrs) 9% 8% 9% 8%
Youth (10 to 19yrs) 14% 12% 10% 11%
Adult (20 to 65 yrs) 59% 60% 55% 52%
Younger Senior (65 to 74 yrs) 10% 12% 15% 14%
Older Senior (75+ yrs) 8% 9% 11% 14%
TABLE 10: Amador County Transportation Model Demographic Data
District
Single Family
Multi-
Family Total Retail Office
Light
Industrial Institutional Total
2000
Kirkwood Kirkwood 312 0 312 36 20 0 4 60
Cooks Station to Iron Mountain Cooks Stn to Iron Mtn 124 10 134 20 6 0 0 26
Central: Pine Grove to Buckhorn Central 4,449 448 4,897 428 69 80 86 663
Jackson Jackson 1,665 629 2,294 963 265 35 231 1,494
Martell Martell 491 279 770 871 36 136 26 1,069
Ione Ione 1,109 348 1,457 312 13 74 35 434
Camanche Camanche 333 198 531 46 6 34 1 87
Sutter Creek Sutter Creek 794 144 938 406 1 23 22 452
Amador City/Drytown Amador City/Drytown 228 19 247 86 0 0 1 87
Plymouth Plymouth 262 197 459 179 10 4 8 201
Fiddletown/Shenandoah Fiddletown/Shenandoah 720 71 791 128 6 3 2 139
Northwest County Northwest County 196 42 238 24 2 52 4 82
Total Total 10,683 2,385 13,068 3,230 466 441 472 4,609
2025
Kirkwood Kirkwood 372 387 759 36 20 0 4 60
Cooks Station to Iron Mountain Cooks Stn to Iron Mtn 124 42 166 20 6 0 0 26
Central: Pine Grove to Buckhorn Central 6,563 448 7,011 585 89 131 104 909
Jackson Jackson 2,854 957 3,811 1,282 335 172 237 2,026
Martell Martell 2,522 680 3,202 1,416 56 922 284 2,678
Ione Ione 2,343 348 2,691 424 53 154 70 701
Camanche Camanche 458 498 956 68 6 34 1 109
Sutter Creek Sutter Creek 1,130 234 1,364 626 41 29 44 740
Amador City/Drytown Amador City/Drytown 461 39 500 152 32 52 9 245
Plymouth Plymouth 348 340 688 253 50 54 12 369
Fiddletown/Shenandoah Fiddletown/Shenandoah 946 71 1,017 132 6 3 2 143
Northwest County Northwest County 239 42 281 24 2 63 4 93
Total 19,558 4,086 23,644 5,090 728 1,614 823 8,255
Change from 2000 to 2025
Kirkwood 60 387 447 0 0 0 0 0
Cooks Station to Iron Mountain 0 32 32 0 0 0 0 0
Central: Pine Grove to Buckhorn 2,114 0 2,114 157 20 51 18 246
Jackson 1,189 328 1,517 319 70 137 6 532 Martell 2,031 401 2,432 545 20 786 258 1,609 Ione 1,234 0 1,234 112 40 80 35 267 Camanche 125 300 425 22 0 0 0 22 Sutter Creek 336 90 426 220 40 6 22 288 Amador City/Drytown 233 20 253 66 32 52 8 158 Plymouth 86 143 229 74 40 50 4 168 Fiddletown/Shenandoah 226 0 226 4 0 0 0 4 Northwest County 43 0 43 0 0 11 0 11 Total 8,875 1,701 10,576 1,860 262 1,173 351 3,646
Percent Change from 2000 to 2025
Kirkwood 19% -- 143% 0% 0% -- 0% 0%
Cooks Station to Iron Mountain 0% 320% 24% 0% 0% -- -- 0%
Central: Pine Grove to Buckhorn 48% 0% 43% 37% 29% 64% 21% 37%
Jackson 71% 52% 66% 33% 26% 391% 3% 36% Martell 414% 144% 316% 63% 56% 578% 992% 151% Ione 111% 0% 85% 36% 308% 108% 100% 62% Camanche 38% 152% 80% 48% 0% 0% 0% 25% Sutter Creek 42% 63% 45% 54% 4000% 26% 100% 64% Amador City/Drytown 102% 105% 102% 77% -- -- 800% 182% Plymouth 33% 73% 50% 41% 400% 1250% 50% 84% Fiddletown/Shenandoah 31% 0% 29% 3% 0% 0% 0% 3% Northwest County 22% 0% 18% 0% 0% 21% 0% 13% Total 83% 71% 81% 58% 56% 266% 74% 79%
SOURCE: Amador County TransCAD Transportation Model
Residential Dwelling Units
Commercial/Institutional Development (Thousands of Square Feet Floor Area)
Of all residential growth, 23 percent is forecast to occur in the Martell area, 20 percent in the upcountry area between Pine Grove and Buckhorn, 14 percent in Jackson, and 12 percent in Ione. Development in the entire remainder of the County is forecast to only equal 18 percent of the total.
As multifamily dwelling unit residents tend to make greater use of public transit services, it is also worthwhile to review the planned location of these housing units. Areas with an increase of 100 or more multifamily housing units consist of Martell (401), Kirkwood (387), Jackson (328), Camanche (300), and Plymouth (143).
As a whole, commercial and institutional development (as measured in floor area) is forecast to increase by 3,646,000 square feet, or 79 percent over 2000 levels. This includes 1,860,000 square feet of retail development, 262,000 square feet of office development, 1,173,000 square feet of light industrial development, and 351,000 square feet of institutional uses (excluding schools or prisons).
By far, the Martell area is expected to be the location of the largest proportion of future
commercial/institutional development, equaling 44 percent of the Countywide total. This equals a 151 percent increase over 2000 levels, and includes 67 percent of Countywide light industrial growth and 29 percent of retail growth. Jackson is forecast to be the location of 15 percent of all Countywide commercial/industrial growth, including 27 percent of office growth.
It should be noted that there are additional developments that have been proposed or approved in the County and various communities. The above analysis examines the very large scale projects that have been proposed, as these have substantial impact on land use based in increased number of residential units. As discussed in Chapter 2, there are many more projects that have been reviewed by the County, ranging from 5 residential units to over 300 units, as well as mixed-used developments and commercial developments.
Traffic Forecasts
Given that a preponderance of travel (particularly for longer trips) in Amador County are via private vehicles, the TransCAD traffic model is also a very good source of forecasts for overall travel demand both between areas of Amador County as well as external to the County. Table 11 presents a summary of 2004 and 2025 Average Daily Traffic (ADT) volume estimates on major
roadways, for both average annual conditions as well as peak month conditions. Focusing on the average annual figures (as these better reflect overall trends in travel), a review of this table indicates the
following:
The greatest increase in absolute traffic activity is forecast to occur on SR 49/88 between Jackson and Martell, where ADT volumes are forecast to increase by 9,100 total vehicles per day, followed closely by SR 49 north of Jackson Gate (and south of Ridge Road) as well as SR 88 between Martell and Ione where volumes are forecast to increase 8,700 vehicles per day.
On a percentage basis, the greatest increases are forecast on SR 104 just northwest of Ione, where volumes are forecast to increase from 2,700 to 4,300, or 103 percent and on SR 104 southeast of Ione where volumes increase from 4,100 to 8,100, or 98 percent. Other roadways with relatively high proportionate increases include SR 88 east of Hams Station and SR 49 at the El Dorado County line, both of which are forecast to increase by 96 percent. SR 88 between Ione and Martell is also forecast to increase by 85 percent.
TABLE 11: Existing and Forecast Daily Traffic Volumes on Key Roadways in Amador County
Roadway Location 2004 2025 Change % Change 2004 2025 Change % Change SR 16Sacramento County Line
5,000 7,990 2,990 60% 5,300 8,480 3,180 60% SR 16 West of SR 124 7,300 10,600 3,300 45% 7,500 11,000 3,500 47% SR 26 South of SR 88 2,250 4,100 1,850 82% 2,450 4,500 2,050 84% SR 49
Calaveras County Line
6,700 11,700 5,000 75% 7,200 12,600 5,400 75% SR 49 Jackson South of SR 88 18,700 25,700 7,000 37% 19,800 27,200 7,400 37% SR 49/88
Between Martell and Jackson
17,400 26,500 9,100 52% 19,600 29,800 10,200 52% SR 49
Martell North of Jackson Gate
14,400 23,100 8,700 60% 15,800 25,300 9,500 60% SR 49
North of Sutter Creek Bypass
10,100 14,300 4,200 42% 10,600 14,800 4,200 40% SR 49 South of Plymouth 7,900 12,300 4,400 56% 8,600 13,500 4,900 57% SR 49
El Dorado County Line
2,300 4,500 2,200 96% 2,650 5,100 2,450 92% SR 88
San Joaquin County Line
7,100 11,700 4,600 65% 8,900 14,100 5,200 58% SR 88
Between Ione and Martell
10,200 18,900 8,700 85% 15,000 26,900 11,900 79% SR 88
Just East of Jackson
8,300 15,800 7,500 90% 9,300 17,100 7,800 84% SR 88 Pine Grove 13,500 18,900 5,400 40% 15,500 21,700 6,200 40% SR 88 Mace Meadows 5,100 7,400 2,300 45% 6,300 9,100 2,800 44% SR 88
East of Hams Station
2,400 4,700 2,300 96% 3,200 6,200 3,000 94% SR 104
Between SR 88 and Ione
4,100 8,100 4,000 98% 4,350 8,600 4,250 98% SR 104 Northwest of Ione 5,900 12,000 6,100 103% 6,600 13,400 6,800 103% SR 104
Sacramento County Line
1,700 2,400 700 41% 1,900 2,700 800 42% SR 124
Between SR 88 and Ione
2,850 4,400 1,550 54% 3,250 5,000 1,750 54% SR 124 Northeast of Ione 2,700 4,300 1,600 59% 3,100 4,900 1,800 58% SR 124 South of SR 16 1,800 3,000 1,200 67% 2,100 3,500 1,400 67% Dalton Road
Between SR 88 and NY Ranch Rd
–
5,800
5,800
–––––
Latrobe Road
El Dorado County Line
2,420
3,800
1,380
57%
––––
New York Ranch Rd
Northeast of Jackson 2,380 2,700 320 13% ––––
New York Ranch Rd
South of Ridge Rd 5,010 8,200 3,190 64% –––– Ridge Road East of SR 49 11,000 17,000 6,000 55% –––– Ridge Road West of SR 88 6,400 10,000 3,600 56% ––––
Sum of All Count Locations
184,910
299,890
114,980
62%
Source: 2004 Amador County Regional Transportation Plan Update, ACTC
Average Annual Daily Traffic Volume