Displaced New Orleans Residents in the Aftermath of Hurricane Katrina:
Results from a Pilot Survey
Narayan Sastry
University of Michigan and RAND Corporation E-mail: nsastry@umich.edu
Tel/Fax: 734-936-0462
Population Studies Center Research Report 08-640 June 2008
(Original paper: July 2007; revised April 2008)
The author gratefully acknowledges the contributions of many colleagues in designing, implementing, and analyzing the Displaced New Orleans Residents Pilot Study, including Megan Beckett, Sandro Galea, Katherine Hall, Amelia Haviland, Anne Kenyon, Karol Krotki, Nicole Lurie, Adrian Overton, Kavita Patel, Christine Peterson, Michael Rendall, Ben Springgate, Greg Stone, Susan Twiddy, Joseph McMichael, Lily Trofimovich, Mark VanLandingham, Clayton Williams, and Julie Zissimopolous.
INTRODUCTION
Hurricane Katrina displaced virtually the entire population of New Orleans, scattering people throughout the region, state, and country. In the months following the disaster, there was no source of representative information on people’s whereabouts, well-being, or their plans to settle in a new location or return to the city.
We designed and fielded the Displaced New Orleans Residents Pilot Study (DNORPS) to provide preliminary information on these topics and to assess the feasibility of collecting
representative data on this population. The pilot study was based on a probability sample of pre-Katrina dwellings in New Orleans and was fielded in the fall of 2006, approximately one year after Hurricane Katrina. It was designed to form the basis for a larger, more extensive effort to track and interview displaced New Orleans residents in the coming years. The information from a full-scale longitudinal survey would help us understand the effects of Hurricane Katrina over the medium and long term and to investigate how individual, family, and contextual characteristics shaped the adjustment to this extraordinary experience (Briggs 2006; National Academy of Sciences 2007).
The data from DNORPS are of particular value for studying the recovery of New Orleans. DNORPS provides one of the few sources of information on displaced residents who have not returned to New Orleans, which allows comparisons between the pre-Katrina residents of the city who have and have not returned. This comparison provides valuable insights into key factors that shape decisions about whether to return to the city. With DNORPS data we can also gain insights into the future population of New Orleans from estimates among returned residents of their likelihood of staying in the city and among displaced residents of their likelihood of returning.
In this paper, we describe the return to New Orleans of displaced residents. We begin by providing an overview of current data sources for studying the demographic effects of Hurricane Katrina and by describing the design and implementation of DNORPS, including the sampling plan, questionnaire, fieldwork operations, and fieldwork results.
POPULATION CHANGE AFTER HURRICANE KATRINA
Studying population change in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina has been a major challenge because valid and generalizable results require data that are representative of everyone and outcome measures that are relevant for describing the post-hurricane experience. The difficulty is that some population groups are difficult to find. For example, it is harder to track and interview those who have resettled away from New Orleans. At the same time, national studies that include displaced New Orleans residents may not track relevant outcomes and may only provide a brief window for examining their circumstances.
Data sources for studying the demographic effects of Hurricane Katrina fall into two categories. The first is early and generally small-scale studies of evacuees. The second is larger-scale surveys, including ongoing national surveys. Researchers conducted early studies rapidly and under very demanding circumstances. Although these studies provide useful information on the immediate aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, they focus on special populations, such as evacuees in shelters or families that had registered with the Red Cross. They were also exclusively cross-sectional and often lacked representative samples owing, for example, to unknown but possibly high nonresponse rates and various shortcomings of their sampling frames (see, for example, Abramson and Garfield 2006; Brodie, Weltzien, Altman, Blendon, and Benson 2006; Elliott and Pais 2006; Stone, Grant, and Weaver 2006). However, early information on the current location of evacuees was also available from change-of-address forms filed with the U.S. Postal Service and from registrations with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) for aid. Analyses of these data show, for instance, that nearly 15 percent of evacuees from New Orleans relocated to distant cities in the East Coast, Midwest, and West Coast (Tizon and Smith 2005).
Larger-scale and longer-term studies are likely to provide key insights into the location and well-being of displaced New Orleans residents. These studies generally have well-designed sampling plans and, for studies focusing on the effects of Hurricane Katrina, they include relevant outcome measures. Among the studies that we review are the Hurricane Katrina Community Advisory Group, the Louisiana Health and Population Survey, the Kaiser Post-Katrina Baseline Survey, the Current Population Survey, and the American Community Survey.
The Hurricane Katrina Advisory Group (2006) is a panel study of 1,043 adults from Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana who were selected from multiple sampling frames. This study focuses on the psychological well-being of adults. Although this was the first large-scale study launched after Katrina, it suffers from a number of shortcomings for addressing topics of interest to social scientists, such as migration and broader measures of well-being. Among these shortcomings are a response rate of approximately 27 percent, no information on characteristics of
nonrespondents, a total of only 168 respondents in New Orleans, and no contextual information on respondents’ pre-Katrina neighborhood of residence.
The Louisiana Population and Health Survey (2006) collected cross-sectional data for parishes in Louisiana that were directly affected by Hurricane Katrina, including Orleans Parish. Researchers collected basic demographic information for all respondents, including some broader measures of health status and social and economic well-being. The 2006 Kaiser Post-Katrina Baseline Survey (Kaiser Family Foundation 2007) is a cross-sectional survey that interviewed 1,504 randomly selected adults living in the New Orleans metropolitan area, including 901 respondents in Orleans Parish. It collected information on several dimensions of well-being, including economic
status, physical and mental health, and quality of life. These two studies provide complementary information to DNORPS. All three studies provide information on individuals who lived in New Orleans prior to Katrina and have subsequently returned to the city. Only DNORPS collects information on New Orleans residents who have not returned, while the Louisiana Population and Health Survey and the Kaiser Post-Katrina Baseline Survey collect data on new migrants to the city.
Finally, the American Community Survey (ACS) and the Current Population Survey (CPS) provide valuable data on the entire region affected by Katrina (U.S. Census Bureau 2006; Bureau of Labor Statistics 2006). These national surveys are fielded by the U.S. Census Bureau and achieve high response rates. Sample sizes in the CPS are too small to provide detailed estimates for New Orleans, but sample sizes in the ACS are sufficiently large to identify and analyze displaced New Orleanians as well as the current population of the city. Both studies will provide only a brief window into the whereabouts and well-being of displaced New Orleans residents: they each ask just a single migration question about place of residence one year previously, and the CPS special questions on Katrina migrants ended in October 2006 (Cahoon et al. 2006).
DESIGN OF THE DISPLACED NEW ORLEANS RESIDENTS PILOT STUDY
The Displaced New Orleans Residents Pilot Study was planned to provide key information and insights for launching a major new panel study of displaced New Orleans residents. In this section, we describe DNORPS, providing an overview of the study design, questionnaire content, fieldwork operations, and fieldwork results.
Study Design
DNORPS is based on a stratified, area-based probability sample of pre-Katrina dwellings in the City of New Orleans. We sampled 344 cases for the study, with the sample size determined by the budget. We selected these cases at random from two separate lists of housing units, a “named” list that included the name of the head of household and an “unnamed” list. The sample was also stratified by flood depth. Using DNORPS sample weights, the data provide representative information on pre-Katrina residents of New Orleans.
Area-based sampling meant that researchers selected dwelling units at random from the entire geographic area of the study in a single stage. In other words, dwellings were the primary sampling unit and there was no geographic clustering of cases. This feature leads to more precise estimates than alternative sampling designs. Knowing the addresses of all sampled cases allows us to geocode the sample and to attach area-based summaries at the block, block-group, tract, and zip-code level from the 2000 U.S. Census and from other data sources.
We divided New Orleans into three strata (see Figure 1) on the basis of flood depth on August 31, 2005, for sampling purposes. Flood depth was directly tied to housing damage (McCarthy, Peterson, Sastry, and Pollard 2006), and thus represents a crucial factor shaping residents’ migration decisions (such as whether to return to the city) and financial and other dimensions of well-being. The first stratum was areas with no flooding, which included about 29 percent of all dwellings in New Orleans. The second stratum included areas with less than four feet of flooding, or about 20 percent of all dwellings. Finally, areas with four or more feet of flooding made up the third stratum, which included 51 percent of dwellings.
We drew the sample from a listing of all dwellings in the city of New Orleans created by Marketing Systems Group, Inc. (MSG), which develops and maintains an enhanced listing of all households in the United States on the basis of records from the U.S. Postal Service and other sources. We used an archived version from August 2005 to draw the sample. We oversampled those dwellings for which MSG provided a name of the household head, under the assumption that these cases would be easier to locate. For similar reasons, we oversampled dwellings in the no-flood and low-flood strata and undersampled dwellings in the high-flooding stratum. The oversampling rate was modest, however, and sample weights can be used to generate estimates for the entire
population. Questionnaire
The DNORPS questionnaire first confirmed that the respondent did indeed reside at the sampled dwelling at the time of Hurricane Katrina. Interviewers then obtained a complete roster of all pre-Katrina household residents, their relationships with one another and their background characteristics, such as age, sex, race and ethnicity, place of birth, and education. The questionnaire asked about the evacuation and resettlement experience, including when each person left New Orleans, the initial evacuation destination, the evacuation location where they spent the most time, the current place of residence, and, if they currently resided in New Orleans, when they had moved back to the city. We also collected information on the likelihood that each person would be living in New Orleans in one year’s time.
The questionnaire asked about each person’s pre-Katrina and current employment, marital, and health status. Other measures of well-being for each person include whether they had consulted a health professional for mental health problems and whether their lives were better, the same, or worse since the hurricane.
Information collected on housing characteristics includes the type of dwelling, whether the unit was owned or rented, and the extent of damage from Hurricane Katrina and the subsequent flooding. We also asked respondents their household’s total monthly income after taxes in the
month preceding Hurricane Katrina. It took respondents approximately fifteen minutes, on average, to complete the ten-page questionnaire. Respondents received a check for $20.00 as an incentive for their participation.
Fieldwork Operations
Fieldwork for the DNORPS began in mid-September 2006 and ended in November 2006. The goal was to complete interviews with an adult respondent in each sampled household through either a mail survey, a telephone interview for those who did not complete the mail survey, or an in-person interview for respondents who were unable or unwilling to complete the survey by mail or telephone.
We first mailed a cover letter and questionnaire to all 344 cases, with an address correction requested. As questionnaires were mailed out, we began batch tracing of respondents using electronic databases such as Telematch, TransUnion, Death Audit Search, National Change of Address, and Accurint to obtain names (for the unnamed sample) and up-to-date telephone numbers and
addresses. We obtained names for 270 cases (78 percent of total) and telephone numbers for 230 of these cases, leaving 114 cases to be traced interactively by telephone or in person. We sent cases with a telephone number to the call center for an attempt at a telephone interview. Cases without a telephone number, or which could not be reached by telephone, were sent to one of four field interviewers located in New Orleans for on-the-ground tracing. Fieldwork ended in mid-November 2006 when the budget was exhausted. At that time, 113 cases had pending tracing activities because we had been unable to confirm a name, telephone number, or new address (and had not determined whether the dwelling was vacant at the time Hurricane Katrina).
FIELDWORK RESULTS
A descriptive analysis of the fieldwork results is presented here. Elsewhere we present a multivariate analysis (Sastry, forthcoming) that examined the association between demographic, social, economic factors, and fieldwork outcomes for each case.
Results for DNORPS are summarized in Table 1. The top panel shows the disposition of all cases released to the field, and the bottom panel shows several key outcome rates based on reporting guidelines from the American Association for Public Opinion Research (2006). The fieldwork results are presented for each of the three strata separately as well as for the entire sample.
In all, we successfully located 231 cases, or about two-thirds of all eligible cases. We completed 147 interviews. Of the 344 cases released to the field, 19 were ineligible. Reasons for ineligibility included having no surviving household members, a vacant dwelling at the time of Hurricane Katrina, or being unable to classify a case as a pre-Katrina household from New Orleans.
Fieldwork staff located sixty-five cases that were not interviewed for various reasons. These cases were approximately evenly divided among three groups—refusals, unable-to-contact cases, and cases on which work had stopped. Unable-to-contact cases were finalized cases with an identified respondent and a current telephone number or address, but for which interviewers were unable to reach after numerous attempts. Additional attempts to contact these cases were judged to be unwarranted. Cases on which work had stopped include those with an address outside of New Orleans but no telephone number (and which hence required an in-person visit).
Not being able to locate a case (113 instances) was the main reason for not completing an interview. Some of the unlocated cases may have been ineligible, a fact that can only be determined by locating and questioning a respondent or informant. For virtually all of these cases, we had open leads that could have been pursued by the fieldwork staff but budget constraints prevented it.
The bottom panel of Table 2 presents outcome rates for the pilot study. Overall, the DNORPS field staff located 65 percent of sampled cases. In the no-flood stratum, we located 76 percent of cases, declining to 62 percent in the low-flood stratum and 58 percent in the high-flood stratum. It was clearly more difficult to locate respondents in areas that had flooded, primarily because a higher fraction of these respondents no longer resided in the dwellings. Differences in rates of locating cases across flood strata are statistically significant on the basis of an F-test. The overall contact rate for DNORPS, calculated as the percentage of eligible located cases that were successfully contacted, was 79 percent. There was little variation across flood stratum in contact rates, which ranged from 77 percent in the no-flood strata to 81 percent in the low-flood stratum to 79 percent in the high-flood stratum. Differences in the contact rates across strata are not statistically
significant.
The DNORPS cooperation rate, calculated as the percentage of contacted cases that were interviewed, was 88 percent overall. This high cooperation rate corresponds directly to a low refusal rate of 12 percent, which was achieved even in the absence of extensive refusal-conversion efforts. Cooperation rates did not vary greatly by stratum; refusal rates were 12 percent in the no-flood stratum, 8 percent rate in the low-flood stratum, and 15 percent rate in the high-flood stratum. Differences across flood strata in the cooperation rates were not statistically significant.
At the bottom of Table 2 we present two separate response rates—an observed response rate and an adjusted response rate. In both cases, these rates reflect the percentage of eligible cases that were successfully interviewed. The adjusted rate controls for the final fieldwork stage in which we selected a subsample of cases for additional tracking and interview attempts while work stopped on the remaining cases. The adjusted response rate varies substantially by stratum, from a high of 63 percent in the no-flood stratum to a low of 41 percent in the high-flood stratum. The overall observed response rate for the study was 45 percent, with the response rate in the no-flood stratum
exceeding this rate by six percentage points (51 percent) and the response rate in the high-flood stratum falling six percentage points below this rate (39 percent). However, differences in the observed response rates across strata were not statistically significant.
The area-based sample design of the DNORPS allowed us to conduct a multivariate logistic regression analysis of the fieldwork outcomes, with covariates based on area-characteristics at the block and block-group level from Census 2000 (details are reported in Sastry, forthcoming). The dependent variables are fieldwork outcomes coded at the individual level that indicate whether an eligible case was located, a located case was contacted, or a contacted case cooperated (that is, was interviewed). In addition, we examined the individual-level analog of the overall response rate by modeling whether an eligible case was successfully interviewed. Covariates in the model included sample-design variables (flood-depth stratum and whether the case was named or unnamed), and census-based areal measures of demographic characteristics (age and percentage of population that was black), socioeconomic status (percentage of employed adults with executive or professional occupations and median family income), residential stability, and percentage of vacant dwellings.
The regression results revealed few systematic differences in fieldwork outcomes by
demographic, socioeconomic, and housing characteristics, across any of the fieldwork stages—with the exception of locating sampled cases. We found that cases classified as “older” (based on the average age of residents in the New Orleans block of the dwelling) were located at higher rates. This may be because households in neighborhoods with older residents are more established and have stronger ties to the neighbors and to the local area. Cases in tracts with a higher fraction of non-family households had lower rates of being located. This reflects the greater likelihood of
respondents living alone or with roommates and correspondingly higher levels of transiency and weaker ties to the dwelling, the neighborhood, and the city. Finally, none of the covariates describing race or socioeconomic status were statistically significant. There were no notable effects of covariates on rates for contacting or completing cases or for the overall response rate model; the only
statistically significant result was the lower probability of a cases completing the survey in the high flood area.
SAMPLE CHARACTERISTICS
The 147 households successfully interviewed reported information on a total of 386
individuals who were residing in the sampled households prior to Hurricane Katrina, for an average of 2.6 individuals per household. Table 2 lists the demographic, socioeconomic, and housing characteristics of these individuals using DNORPS sample weights.
The sample is divided fairly uniformly across four broad age groups, with 27 percent under age eighteen; 19 percent aged eighteen to twenty-nine; 29 percent between ages thirty and
forty-nine; and 24 percent age fifty and older. Slightly more than one-half of the individuals (53 percent) are female. Four-fifths were born in Louisiana, reflecting minimal in-migration and the slow, steady population decline in New Orleans prior to Hurricane Katrina (Brookings Institution 2005). Approximately two-thirds (67 percent) of individuals in the DNORPS sample are black and 28 percent are white. These results align closely with those from the 2004 American Community Survey, which estimated that 69 percent of the New Orleans population was black and 28 percent white (U.S. Census Bureau 2005).
Marriage, education, and employment rates are shown only for individuals age eighteen and older. Two-fifths of the adult sample is married, while a similar fraction has never been married. One-fifth of the sample is separated, divorced, or widowed. A plurality of adults (49 percent) are high school graduates, 37 percent are college graduates, and 14 percent have no high school degree. The majority of the adults (57 percent) are employed, with 15 percent unemployed and 15 percent retired.
Only 5 percent of individuals in the sample had homes that were undamaged by Hurricane Katrina, although 25 percent of respondents lived in the non-flooded stratum. About one-quarter of individuals lived in a home that was damaged but habitable, while 71 percent of respondents’ homes were rendered uninhabitable (49 percent uninhabitable and 22 percent destroyed). At the time of the hurricane, one-third of the individuals lived in a rented dwelling in New Orleans and two-thirds lived in a family-owned home. The most common destinations for displaced individuals were Texas (44 percent) and elsewhere in Louisiana (43 percent).
CURRENT AND FUTURE RESIDENCE IN NEW ORLEANS AMONG DISPLACED PRE-KATRINA RESIDENTS
We next describe the return of displaced New Orleans residents to the city and the likelihood that they were living in the city one year after the survey was conducted in fall 2006. These results provide insights into the processes that have shaped or are shaping decisions to return to New Orleans. The results also allow us to calibrate the survey’s results to independent estimates of the city’s population and point to the city’s possible future population.
One year after the hurricane struck, 49 percent of pre-Katrina residents in our sample had returned to New Orleans (Table 3). The most widely accepted pre-Katrina estimate of the
population of New Orleans was 454,863 in July 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2005). Therefore, the population of New Orleans in fall 2006 most likely included approximately 222,900 returned residents (plus any new residents who had not resided in the city prior to the hurricane). This
estimate is very similar to other independent estimates, including those from the U.S. Census Bureau (2007), which estimated the July 1, 2006, population to be 223,000, the Louisiana Health and
Population Survey, which estimated the city’s total population in fall 2006 at approximately
200,000 (LPHI 2007), and the Kaiser Post-Katrina Baseline Survey, which placed the population in fall 2006 at approximately 221,000 (Kaiser Family Foundation 2007).
Older, White, College-Educated, Employed or Retired with a Habitable Home Have Returned
Table 3 presents the estimated percentages of pre-Katrina New Orleans residents who have returned to the city by individuals’ demographic, socioeconomic, and housing characteristics. All of the percentages are weighted, and we examine differences in return rates by individual characteristics using a sample design-based F-test for which we also report the statistical significance. We find large and statistically significant disparities in return rates by level of housing damage and employment and, to a lesser extent, by age, race, education, and flooding stratum. We find marginally significant differences in return rates by sex and state of birth but no differences by marital status, housing tenure (owned versus rented), or displaced location. Of those who had not returned to the city, 37 percent were living elsewhere in Louisiana, 34 percent in Texas, 9 percent in Georgia, and 20 percent in various other states (results not shown).
Disparities in return rates are most pronounced by housing damage. Twice as many individuals whose homes were undamaged (86 percent) or damaged (83 percent) had returned as those whose homes were uninhabitable (Table 3). Those with undamaged or damaged homes were four times as likely to return as those whose homes were destroyed. Differences in return rates among these groups are statistically significant at the .01 level. Flooding is closely related to housing damage, but we find much smaller differences in return rates by flooding stratum than by housing damage. In the unflooded stratum, nearly three-quarters of pre-Katrina residents had returned, while in the low-flood stratum, about one-half had returned. In the high-flood stratum, 38 percent of pre-Katrina residents had returned. Return rate differences by flooding stratum are statistically
significant at the .05 level.
Employment also affects return rates. Individuals who are employed or retired have high return rates (63 percent and 59 percent, respectively) (Table 3). Those who are unemployed,
students, or homemakers have return rates that are only one-half those of the first group (27 percent to 29 percent). Differences in return rates are statistically significant at the .01 level. Those with college degrees are more likely to have returned (69 percent) than those who have a high-school degree or less (return rates of 45 percent to 47 percent). Older adults (aged thirty and older) are also more likely to return; 58 percent to 68 percent have returned compared with 38 to 39 percent of children and young adults under age thirty. Finally, 40 percent of blacks had returned while 69
percent of whites had returned. Differences in return rates by education, age, and race are all statistically significant at the .05 level.
These results portray a consistent picture of pre-Katrina residents of New Orleans who have returned and who remain displaced. Older, white, college-educated, employed or retired, with a habitable home were more likely to return to New Orleans in the first year after Hurricane Katrina struck. In contrast, those who remain displaced are largely children and young adults, blacks, the less educated, the unemployed, and those without a habitable dwelling in New Orleans. These
distinctions suggest that the still displaced are likely to face significant obstacles to returning, including those related to schooling (for children), employment (for those without a job or out of the labor force), and in securing housing (for those with uninhabitable homes).
Among Displaced, More Native-Born New Orleanians, Renters, and Singles Want to Return
We asked all respondents to report, on a scale of zero to ten, the likelihood of living in New Orleans in one year’s time (that is, fall 2007) for each resident in the respondent’s pre-Katrina household. A zero indicated no chance that the person would be living in New Orleans and a ten meant that it was absolutely certain that the person would be living in the city. We created a three-category variable from the response scale, with zero to two indicating that the person was not likely to return to New Orleans, three to seven indicating the person might return, and eight to ten indicating the person was likely to return. We chose these categories after examining detailed tabulations of the data. The results, presented in Table 4, are not sensitive to the use of different categories.
Overall, two-thirds of pre-Katrina residents, regardless of where they lived at the time of the interview, were possibly (18 percent) or very likely (48 percent) to be residing in the city in fall 2007. We can use this figure to estimate the population of New Orleans in fall 2007. We recognize, however, that this estimate will exclude new residents of the city and will include people who report that their likelihood of returning is uncertain—and that there is no way to know the relative sizes of these two groups. Nevertheless, the two-thirds figure is consistent with estimates from other sources. In particular, the Brookings Institution and the Greater New Orleans Community Data Center (2008) estimated that in late 2007 the population of New Orleans was about 70 percent of its pre-Katrina size based on U.S. Postal Service counts of households receiving mail. The
Brookings/GNOCDC estimate includes new residents of New Orleans but does not identify the fraction of the population composed of new entrants and of displaced residents who have returned.
The second and third panels of Table 4 show the dramatic differences in the likelihood of living in New Orleans in one year’s time for residents living in the city and for residents living
elsewhere. Overall, among pre-Katrina residents living in New Orleans, 97 percent report being possibly (8 percent) or very (89 percent) likely to be living in the city in one year’s time. This share varies little by flood stratum. Very few residents (3 percent) planned to leave the city in the coming year. On the other hand, only 13 percent of pre-Katrina New Orleanians residing elsewhere said they were very likely to return to the city in the coming year, while 26 percent said they were
possibly going to return. Here we see substantial differences by flood depth. Only approximately one in five of displaced residents from the unflooded stratum said they were likely to return to the city in the coming year. In contrast, nearly one-half of residents from the low-flood zone and four in ten from the high-flood zone said they were likely to return in the coming year.
In examining the characteristics most likely to shape returns to New Orleans among displaced residents we find only three that are related the likelihood of return. The first and largest disparity is by place of birth—displaced individuals who were born in Louisiana (and quite possibly in New Orleans itself) have much higher expectations of returning to the city than those displaced individuals who were born elsewhere (Table 5). In addition, those who had lived in rented housing prior to Hurricane Katrina were more likely to return than those who had owned their home. It is possible that many renters have unreasonably optimistic expectations about being able to find housing in New Orleans. Finally, there is a puzzling disparity by marital status, with married individuals far less likely than the never-married or separated or divorced or widowed individuals expecting to return to the city. Overall, these findings suggest that among the New Orleans residents who remain displaced, those with the strongest desire to return may be the least able to do so because they lack housing, family, and perhaps other resources.
CONCLUSION
The main goals of Displaced New Orleans Residents Pilot Study were to establish the feasibility of identifying a representative sample of pre-Katrina residents of New Orleans and to determine the likely success of efforts to track and interview this sample. An additional aim was to use the pilot data to gain insights into the recovery (as measured by its future population) of New Orleans in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and to study the well-being of displaced residents.
The DNORPS results showed that sampled respondents once contacted could be
successfully interviewed, with cooperation rates approaching 90 percent, but that the main challenge was in locating respondents. Also, there were few systematic differences in fieldwork outcomes by demographic, socioeconomic, and housing characteristics across any of the fieldwork stages—with the exception of locating sampled cases. The main challenge in improving the fieldwork results and in launching a full-scale study of this population is to locate a high fraction of sampled cases.
In all, we estimate that the New Orleans population will regain over two-thirds of its residents who were displaced by Hurricane Katrina. At the time of the survey in the fall of 2006 approximately one-half of residents had returned to New Orleans and nearly all of those planned to stay. We found essentially no variation in this high likelihood of remaining in the city by flood zone, which is remarkable given the vastly different living environments of flooded and non-flooded residents. At the same time, among the 51 percent of residents who had not yet returned, the likelihood of moving back is modest. Of those displaced, the majority (61 percent) had no plans to return within a year of the interview (i.e., within two years following the hurricane). Interestingly, the likelihood of returning to the city is higher among residents in flooded parts of the city, which likely reflects the effects of unfinished reconstruction efforts, such as repairing or replacing damaged housing and waiting for neighborhood infrastructure to be reestablished. In unflooded parts of the city, few additional displaced residents are likely to return if they have not done so already. The overall implication of these results for the future population of New Orleans is likely only very modest growth from the return of still-displaced residents. The city will continue its post-Katrina experience of being older, whiter and more highly-educated, and with fewer families, children, and people out of the labor force. Our results suggest that perhaps the most effective way to increase the proportion of displaced New Orleanians who return to the city is to increase the availability of low-cost housing to renters who are still away from the city but would like to return.
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Table 1. Final Disposition of Displaced New Orleans Residents Pilot Study Cases
Fieldwork outcome
Flooding stratum
Total 0 feet < 4 feet ≥ 4 feet
Disposition of cases Located cases
Interviewed 59 35 53 147
Ineligible 10 4 5 19
Not-interviewed 28 12 25 65
Total located cases 97 51 83 231
Unlocated cases 27 29 57 113
Total cases 124 80 140 344
Outcome rates
Locating rate[a] 76% 62% 58% 65%
Contact rate[b] 77% 81% 79% 79%
Cooperation rate[c] 88% 92% 85% 88%
Observed response rate 51% 46% 39% 45%
Adjusted response rate[d] 63% 52% 41% 51%
Notes: [a] Percent of eligible cases were located. [b] Percent of located cases that were contacted. [c] Percent of contacted cases that were completed.
Table 2. Summary Statistics for Rostered Individuals in the DNORPS
Variable Weighted % Number of cases Age < 18 years 27% 95 18–29 years 19% 55 30–49 years 29% 110 ≥ 50 years 24% 126 Sex Male 47% 167 Female 53% 219 State of birth Louisiana 80% 304 Other state 20% 82 Race White 28% 141 Black 67% 141 Other 5% 12
Marital status (age ≥ 18 years)
Married 40% 117
Divorced/separated/widowed 20% 68
Never married 40% 105
Education (age ≥ 18 years)
Not HS-graduate 14% 41
High school graduate 49% 142
College graduate 37% 105
Employment (age ≥ 18 years)
Employed 57% 161 Unemployed 15% 39 Sick 5% 14 Homemaker 2% 7 Student 6% 17 Retired 15% 50
Rent or own in New Orleans
Owned 67% 268
Rented 33% 118
Housing damage
Destroyed 22% 65
Uninhabitable 49% 149
Damaged but habitable 24% 144
Undamaged 5% 24 Flooding stratum 0 feet 25% 143 < 4 feet 20% 93 ≥ 4 feet 55% 150 Displaced location Louisiana 43% 128 Texas 44% 124 Mississippi 7% 25 Elsewhere 6% 17 Total 100% 386
Note: Estimates are weighted and adjust for stratification and clustering of observations by dwelling. *p<.10; **p<.05; ***p<.01.
Table 3. Percentage of Displaced New Orleans Residents Who Have Returned to the City
Returned to Living Test of
Variable New Orleans elsewhere Total independence
Total 49% 51% 100% Age < 18 years 39% 61% 100% 3.00** 18–29 years 38% 62% 100% 30–49 years 58% 42% 100% ≥ 50 years 60% 40% 100% Sex Male 44% 56% 100% 3.02* Female 54% 46% 100% State of birth Louisiana 46% 54% 100% 2.67* Other state 62% 38% 100% Race White 69% 31% 100% 3.07** Black 40% 60% 100% Other 60% 40% 100%
Marital status (age ≥ 18 years)
Married 54% 46% 100% 1.19
Divorced/separated/widowed 64% 36% 100%
Never married 47% 53% 100%
Education (age ≥ 18 years)
Not HS-graduate 47% 53% 100% 4.13**
High school graduate 45% 55% 100%
College graduate 69% 31% 100%
Employment (age ≥ 18 years)
Employed 63% 37% 100% 3.41*** Unemployed 29% 71% 100% Sick 44% 56% 100% Homemaker 29% 71% 100% Student 27% 73% 100% Retired 59% 41% 100%
Rent or own in New Orleans
Owned 53% 47% 100% 0.88
Rented 43% 57% 100%
Housing damage
Destroyed 22% 78% 100% 14.08***
Uninhabitable 41% 59% 100%
Damaged but habitable 83% 17% 100%
Undamaged 86% 14% 100% Flooding stratum 0 feet 73% 27% 100% 3.93** < 4 feet 51% 49% 100% ≥ 4 feet 38% 62% 100% Displaced location Louisiana 51% 49% 100% 1.22 Texas 44% 56% 100% Mississippi 78% 22% 100% Elsewhere 71% 29% 100%
Note: Estimates are weighted and adjust for stratification and clustering of observations by dwelling. Test of independence based on sample design-based F-test. *p<.10; **p<.05; ***p<.01
Table 4. Reported Likelihood of Living in New Orleans One Year after the DNORPS Interview
Likely to be living in New Flooding stratum
Orleans one year later? 0 feet < 4 feet ≥ 4 feet Total
All Pre-Katrina Residents of New Orleans
Yes 64% 52% 40% 48%
Maybe 11% 22% 19% 18%
No 25% 27% 41% 34%
Pre-Katrina Residents Living in New Orleans
Yes 89% 93% 87% 89%
Maybe 9% 7% 7% 8%
No 2% 0% 6% 3%
Pre-Katrina Residents Not Living in New Orleans
Yes 3% 11% 16% 13%
Maybe 16% 36% 25% 26%
No 81% 53% 59% 61%
Table 5. Cross-tabulations of Reported Likelihood of Living in New Orleans One Year after the DNORPS Interview for Individuals Living outside the City
Living in New Orleans? Test of
Variable Yes/Maybe No Total Independence
Total 39% 61% 100% Age < 18 years 40% 60% 100% 0.10 18–29 years 42% 58% 100% 30–49 years 34% 66% 100% ≥ 50 years 40% 60% 100% Sex Male 42% 59% 100% 0.41 Female 36% 64% 100% Race White 26% 74% 100% 1.41 Black 43% 57% 100% Other 9% 91% 100% State of birth Louisiana 44% 56% 100% 10.21*** Other state 8% 92% 100%
Marital status (age ≥ 18 years)
Married 21% 79% 100% 3.36**
Divorced/separated/widowed 61% 39% 100%
Never married 48% 53% 100%
Education (age ≥ 18 years)
Not HS-graduate 46% 54% 100% 0.43
High school graduate 40% 60% 100%
College graduate 29% 71% 100%
Employment (age ≥ 18 years)
Employed 32% 68% 100% 1.04 Unemployed 58% 42% 100% Sick 28% 72% 100% Homemaker 21% 79% 100% Student 54% 46% 100% Retired 27% 73% 100%
Rent or own in New Orleans
Owned 27% 73% 100% 4.74**
Rented 57% 43% 100%
Housing damage
Destroyed 41% 59% 100% 0.59
Uninhabitable 38% 62% 100%
Damaged but habitable 25% 75% 100%
Undamaged 88% 12% 100% Flooding stratum 0 feet 19% 81% 100% 0.83 < 4 feet 47% 53% 100% ≥ 4 feet 41% 59% 100% Displaced location Louisiana 53% 47% 100% 0.62 Texas 35% 65% 100% Mississippi 42% 58% 100% Elsewhere 43% 57% 100%
Note: Estimates are weighted and adjust for stratification and clustering of observations by dwelling. Test of independence based on sample design-based F-test. *p<.10; **p<.05; ***p<.01
