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Analysis of Characteristics of the Forecast Jump in the NCEP Ensemble Forecast Products

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Figure

Figure 1 shows schematic diagram of the three forecast jump phenomena. For any forecast time, such as point A, B and C forecast jump index is beyond the critical value,
Figure 2. NCEP ensemble mean and control forecast time average forecast jump index.
Figure 3. The frequency of “flip” in the NCEP ensemble mean and control forecast.
Figure 5. The frequency of “flip-flop-flip” in the NCEP ensemble mean and control forecast
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