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Exam STAM

Exam STAM

Adapt to Your Exam

Adapt to Your Exam

SEVERITY, FREQUENCY &

SEVERITY, FREQUENCY &

 AGGREGATE MOD

 AGGREGATE MODELSELS

Basic Basic

CDFs, Survival Functions, and Hazard Functions CDFs, Survival Functions, and Hazard Functions

(()) =  = PrPr((    ≤ ≤ )) =  = * * (())

//

--

dd

(()) =  = PrPr((  >

  > )) =  = * * (())

--

//

dd

ℎℎ(()) = =  (())

(())

(()) =  = * * ℎℎ(())

//

--

d d = = −−lnln(()) ;  ; (()) =  = 

((--))

Moments Moments

EE[[((  )])] =  = * * (())⋅ ⋅ (())

//

//

dd

= * ′

= * ′(())⋅ ⋅ (())



//

dd



DD

 raw moment: raw moment:



HH

= = EE[[  



]] ;  ; 

HH

= = 



DD

 central moment: central moment:





 =  = EE[([(  −

  −))



]]

VarVar[[  ]] =  = 

MM

 =  = 

MM

VarVar[[((  )])] =  = EE[[((  ))

MM

]] − E − E[[((  )])]

MM

Covariance:

Covariance:

CovCov(( , ,)) =  = EE[[  ]] − −EE[[  ]]EE[[]]

Coefficient of variation:  =

Coefficient of variation:  =  

Skewness =

Skewness =  



__

__

 ; Kurtosis =

 ; Kurtosis =  







Moment and Probability Generating Functions Moment and Probability Generating Functions





(()) =  = EE[[



]]



(())

((00)) =  = EE[[  



]]

 where where



(())

 is the is the



DD

 derivative derivative





(()) =  = EE[[



]]



(())

((11)) =  = EE[[  ((  − 1

  − 1))⋯⋯((  − 

  −  ++11)])]

where

where



(())

 is the is the



DD

 derivative derivative Conditional Distributions Conditional Distributions

PrPr((  ∣   ∣ )) = = Pr Pr((  ∩ 

PrPr(()) == Pr Pr(( ∣  ∣ ))PrPr((  ))

  ∩ ))

PrPr(())

  

∣

∣

(()) = = 

PrPr((  <   <   < < )),where  <  < 



(())

,where  <  < 

Law of Total Probability Law of Total Probability

PrPr((  =

  = )) =  = EE



[[PrPr((  =

  =   ∣ ∣ )])]

Law of Total Expectation Law of Total Expectation

EE



[[  ]] =  = EE



EE



[[  ∣   ∣ ]]

Law of Total Variance Law of Total Variance

VarVar



[[  ]] =  = EE



VarVar



[[    ∣ ∣ ]]+Var

+Var



EE



[[  ∣   ∣ ]]

Independence Independence For independent

For independent

  

andand



,, •

PrPr((    = = ,, =  = )) =  = PrPr((    = = ))⋅ Pr⋅ Pr((  = = ))

EE[[((  )) ⋅ ℎ ⋅ ℎ(()])] =  = EE[[((  )])] ⋅ E ⋅ E[[ℎℎ(()])]

Parametric Distributions

Parametric Distributions Special Distribution Shortcuts Special Distribution Shortcuts

  

  − 

−  ∣  ∣  > > 

Pareto

Pareto((,,)) Pareto

Pareto((,

, ++))

Exponential

Exponential(()) Exponential

Uniform

Uniform((,,)) Uniform

Uniform((0, − 

Exponential(())

0, − ))

Zero-Truncated Distributions Zero-Truncated Distributions



áá

 = = 111 −1 −



  



,,fofor  = 1

r  = 1,,2,⋯2,⋯

EE[([(

áá

))



]] = = 111 −1 −



 E E[[



]]

Zero-Modified Distributions Zero-Modified Distributions



ää

 = = 1 − 1 −

11− − 

ää



  



,,fofor  = 1

r  = 1,2,,2,⋯⋯

EE[([(

ää

))



]] = = 1 − 1 −

11− − 

ää



 E E[[



]]

(,,0)

(,,0)

 Class Property Class Property











 =  =  + +  ,,fofor  = 1

r  = 1,2,,2,⋯⋯

Mixtures and Splices Mixtures and Splices Bernoulli Shortcut Bernoulli Shortcut If

If

    == ã ã, , PrProbobababililitity y = = 

, , ProProbababibilility ty = = 1 1 −−

, then:, then:

VarVar[[  ]] = = ( ( − −))

MM

((1 −1 −))

Poisson-Gamma Mixture Poisson-Gamma Mixture If

If

    ∣  ∣  ∼ P∼ Poisson

oisson(())

 where where

 ∼ Gamma

 ∼ Gamma((,,))

,, then

then

  ∼

  ∼ Neg.

Neg.Binomial

Binomial(( = , = 

 = , = ))

.. Frailty Models

Frailty Models

ℎℎ((  ∣ ∣ )) =  ⋅ 

 =  ⋅ (())

(()) =  = 

ôô

[[−−(()])],,whe

where re (()) =  = * * (())

//

--

dd

Insurance Applications Insurance Applications



öö

: payment per loss: payment per loss Policy Limits, Policy Limits,





öö

 =  ∧  =

 =  ∧  = ù ù ,  ,   < < 

, ,   ≥ ≥ 

EE[([(

öö

))



]] =  = EE[([(  ∧ 

  ∧ ))



]]

= = * * 

üü



  (())



d d ++



 ⋅  ⋅ (())

= * 

= * 

üü





(())



dd

Increas

Increased Limit Fac

ed Limit Factor:

tor:  =

 = E E[[  ∧ 

EE[[  ∧ 

  ∧ ]]

  ∧ ]]



: original limit: original limit •



: increased limit: increased limit Deductibles, Deductibles,



Ordinary deductible: Ordinary deductible:



öö

 = = ( (  −

  −))

••

 = = ã ã  0 0, ,   < < 

  −

  −, ,   ≥ ≥ 

EE[[

öö

]] =  = EE[([(  − 

  − ))

••

]] =  = EE[[  ]] − E − E[[  ∧ 

  ∧ ]]

EE[([(

öö

))



]] =  = EE[([(  −  −))

••

]]

= = ** (( − −))

¶¶

//



  (())

dd

= = * * (( − −))

¶¶

//





(())

dd

Loss eliminiation ratio:  =

Loss eliminiation ratio:  = E E[[  ∧ 

  ∧ ]]

EE[[  ]]

Franchise deductible: Franchise deductible:



öö

 = = ã ã00, ,   < < 

 ,  ,  ≥

 ≥ 

EE[[

öö

]] =  = EE[([(  − 

  − ))

••

]] + + ⋅  ⋅ (())

Payment per Payment Payment per Payment



©©

: payment per payment: payment per payment

EE[[

©©

]] = = E E[[

(()) ; ; EE[[

öö

]]

öö

]] =  = EE[[

©©

]]⋅ ⋅ (())

With ordinary deductible With ordinary deductible



,,

[[

©©

]] =  = (()) =  = EE[[  −  −  ∣  ∣  > > ]] = = E E[([(  −  −))

(())

••

]]

Special Shortcuts for Special Shortcuts for

(())

(())

Exponential

Exponential(())



Uniform

Uniform((,,))

 −  − 22

Pareto

Pareto((,,))

 + +

 − −11

S-P S-P

Pareto((,,))

Pareto

 − −11

The Ultimate Formula for Insurance The Ultimate Formula for Insurance

EE[[

öö

]] =  = ((1 +1 +))™E´ ∧

™E´ ∧ 1 +1 +≠≠− E− EÆÆ  ∧  ∧ 1 +1 +ØØ

where where



: deductible (set to 0 if : deductible (set to 0 if not applicable)not applicable)



: policy limit (set to: policy limit (set to

∞∞

 if not applicable) if not applicable)



: coinsurance (set to 1 if not applicable): coinsurance (set to 1 if not applicable)



: inflation rate (set to 0 if not applicable): inflation rate (set to 0 if not applicable)

: maximum covered loss,

: maximum covered loss,which equal

which equalss  + +

 Aggregate L

 Aggregate Loss Modelsoss Models Collective Risk Model Collective Risk Model If

If

  == ∑ ∑ 

µµ¥∂¥∂

¥¥

for for independentindependent



 and and

  

, then:, then: •

EE[[]] =  = EE[[]]EE[[  ]]

VarVar[[]] =  = EE[[]]VarVar[[  ]] + +VaVarr[[]]EE[[  ]]

MM

Impact of Deductibles on Claim Frequency Impact of Deductibles on Claim Frequency For For

 = Pr

 = Pr((  >

  > ))

,,

 ′′

Poisson Poisson

 

Binomial Binomial

,, ,

,

Neg. Neg. Binomial Binomial

,, ,

,

Negative Binomial/Exponential Compound Models Negative Binomial/Exponential Compound Models

ãã ∼ Neg.Binomial

 ∼ Neg.Binomial((,,))

  ∼ Exponential

  ∼

Exponential(()) ππ

⇕⇕

ªª  ∼ Binomial ™,

  ∼

  ∼ Exponential

 ∼ Binomial ™, 1 +1 +

Exponential(([[11+ + ])])ºº

Compound Poisson Models Compound Poisson Models

A collective risk model where the frequency A collective risk model where the frequency follows a Poisson distribution.

follows a Poisson distribution.

SEVERITY, FREQUENCY

SEVERITY, FREQUENCY & AGGREGATE& AGGREGATE

MODELS

(2)

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Copyright © 2018 Coaching Actuaries. All Rights Reserved. 2

Risk Measures

Value-at-Risk (VaR)

VaR

æ

( ) = 

.I

()

Tail-Value-at-Risk (TVaR)

TVaR

æ

( ) = E  ∣  > VaR

æ

( )y

= VaR

æ

( ) +VaR

æ

( )y

TVaR

æ

( )

Normal

 + ¿¬

æ

1 − ƒ

Lognormal

E[ ] ⋅ ¿Φ¬ − 

æ

1 −  ƒ

Coherence

( )

 is coherent if it satisfies the properties below: • Translation invariance:

(  + ) = ( )+

• Positive homogeneity:

() =  ⋅ ( )

• Subadditivity:

(  + ) ≤ ( )+()

• Monotonicity:

() ≤ ()

, if

Pr(  ≤ ) = 1

VaR is not coherent because it fails subaddivity. TVaR is coherent.

Tail Weight

1. Fewer positive raw moments

 heavier tail 2. If

lim

-→

À

Ã

(-)

(-)

 = ∞

 or

-→

lim

Õ

Õ

À

Ã

(-)

(-)

 = ∞

, then numerator has a heavier tail.

3.

ℎ()

 decreases with

 ⟹

 heavy tail 4.

()

 increases with

⟹

 heavy tail CONSTRUCTION AND SELECTION OF PARAMETRIC MODELS

Maximum Likelihood Estimators Steps to Calculating MLE

1.

() = ∏ ()

2.

() = ln()

3.

H

() =

–—

 ()

4.

Set 

H

() = 0

Incomplete Data Left-truncated at

 () ()

Right-censored at

()

Grouped data on interval

(,]

Pr( <  ≤ )

Special Cases Distribution Shortcuts Gamma, fixed

” = ̅

Normal

̂ = ̅

÷

 = ∑ 

g¥∂I

¥

 −̂

Lognormal

̂ = ∑ ln

¥

g¥∂I

÷

 = ∑ (ln

g¥∂I

 − ̂

¥

)

Poisson

◊ = ̅

Binomial, fixed

÷ = ̅

Neg. Binomial, fixed

◊ = ̅

Zero-Truncated Distribution:

• Match

E[ 

á

]

 to

̅

Zero-Modified Distribution:

• Match

 to the proportion of zero observations • Match

E[ 

ä

]

 to

̅

Uniform Distribution on

(0,)

: •

” = max(

I

,

,…,

g

)

Choosing from

(,,0)

 Class

Two methods to fit data to an

(,,0)

 class distributions:

• Method 1: Compare

̅

 and

Method 2: Observe the slope of

Gg

g

‹›À

Distribution Method 1 Method 2 Poisson

̅ = 

0 Binomial

̅ > 

  Negative Neg. Binomial

̅ < 

  Positive Variance of MLE Fisher’s Information One Parameter:

() = −E

[′′()]

Var”y = [()]

.I

Two Parameters:

(,) = −E

 ¿ 

fi,—

H

fiHH

(,) 

(,) 

fi,—

H

—HH

(,) ƒ

(,)

[(,)]

.I

 = fl Var[÷] Cov÷,”y

Cov÷,”y Var”y ‡

Delta Approximation One-Variable:

Var¬”√y ≈ Æ ()Ø

Var”y

Two-Variable:

Var¬÷,”√y ≈ (

fiH

)

Var[÷] +2

fiH

—H

Cov÷,”y

+(

—H

)

Var”y

Confidence Interval

” ±

(I•æ)/

‰ Var ”y

Hypothesis Tests

B

: null hypothesis

I

: alternative hypothesis

Reject

B

 when test statistic

 >

 critical value

 is true

 is false Reject

Type I Error Correct Decision Fail to reject

DecisionCorrect Type II Error Hypothesis Tests: Kolmogorov-Smirnov Empirical Distribution

Equal probability for each observation

g

() = # of observations ≤ 

Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test

Test statistic:  = max

ÍÎÎ 

 

y

 where

 = max¬Ï

g

¬

√−

¬

√Ï,Ï

g

¬

.I

√− 

¬

√Ï√

If data is truncated at

, then

() = ()− ()

1 − () ,for  ≥ 

Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test Properties • Individual data only

• Continuous fit only

• Lower critical value for censored data • If parameters are estimated, critical value

should be adjusted

• Lower critical value if sample size is large • No discretion

• Uniform weight on all parts of distribution

()

 Plot

Graph the difference between empirical CDF and fitted CDF

Peak:

() = 

g

¬

√− 

¬

Valley:

() = 

g

¬

.I

√−

¬

-

 Plot 

Coordinate: Ó

g

¬

√,

¬

√Ô where 

g

¬

√ = 

 + 1

Hypothesis Tests: Chi-Square Goodness-of-Fit Chi-Square Goodness-of-Fit Test

Test statistic:

 = Ò¬

 − 

G

∂I

 where

: # of groups

: expected # of observations in group

 

: actual # of observations in group

 

Degrees of freedom

 =  − 1 −

 where •

: # of estimated parameters

Chi-Square Goodness-of-Fit Test Properties • Individual and grouped data

• Continuous and discrete fit

• No adjustments to critical value for censored data

• If parameters are estimated, critical value is automatically adjusted via degrees of freedom • No change for critical value if s ample size is

large

• Data needs to be grouped according to

• More weights on intervals with poor fit Hypothesis Tests: Likelihood Ratio

Test statistic: = 2[(

I

) − (

B

)]

Degrees of freedom

 = # of free parameters in 

I

− # of free parameters in 

B

Score-Based Approaches Two types of criteria:

• Schwarz Bayesian Criterion (SBC), a.k.a. Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) • Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)

SBC/BIC

 − 2ln

AIC

 − 

where

:

 log-likelihood

:# of estimated parameters

: sample size

Select model with the highest SBC or AIC value.

CONSTRUCTION AND SELECTION OF PARAMETRIC MODELS

(3)

CREDIBILITY Classical Credibility

a.k.a. Limited Fluctuation Credibility Full Credibility

# of exposures needed for full credibility,

ı

: Full credibility of aggregate claims:

ı

 = ´

(•æ) ⁄

 ≠

(



)

# of claims needed for ful l credibility,

ˆ

: Full credibility of aggregate claims:

ˆ

 = ´

(•æ) ⁄

 ≠

fl

µ

µ

 + 



• Full credibility of claim frequency: set





 = 0

Full credibility of claim severity: set

˜

¯Ã

˘

¯

 = 0

ˆ

 = 

ı

 ⋅ 

µ

; 

ı

 = 

µ

ˆ

Partial Credibility

Credibility premium: 

˙

 = ̅ + (1 − )

=  + (̅ − )

where

: manual premium

: credibility factor/credibility

Square Root Rule: = ¸  

ı

 = ¸ ′

ˆ

where

: actual # of exposures

′

: actual # of claims Bayesian Credibility Model Distribution

Distribution of model conditioned on a parameter Model density function:

 ( ∣ )

Prior Distribution

Initial distribution of the parameter Prior density function:

()

Posterior Distribution

Revised distribution of the parameter Posterior density function:

( ∣ data)

( ∣ data) = (data ∣ ) ⋅()

∫ (data ∣  ) ⋅ () d

//

Predictive Distribution

Revised unconditional distribution (w.r.t. model) of the model

Predictive density function:

 ( ∣ data)

Predictive Mean = Bayesian Premium

Bühlmann Credibility

Expected Hypothetical Mean (EHM):

 = EE[  ∣ ]

Expected Process Variance (EPV):

 = EVar[  ∣ ]

Variance of Hypothetical Mean (VHM):

 = VarE[  ∣ ]

Bühlmann :  = 

Bühlmann Credibility Factor: =  + 

Bühlmann Credibility Premium:

˙

 = ̅ + (1 − )

=  + (̅ − )

Bühlmann As Least Squares Estimate of Bayesian

Minimize

∑ ´

ÍÎÎ -

-

¬

-

 − ”

 

-

where

-

: Bayesian estimate given

 

 = 

”

-

: Bühlmann estimate given

 

 = 

Properties of a Bayesian/Bühlmann graph • Bühlmann estimates are on a straight line • Bayesian estimates are within the range of

hypothetical means

• There are Bayesian estimates above and below the Bühlmann line

• Bühlmann estimates are between the sample mean and theoretical mean

Conjugate Priors Poisson/Gamma • Model:

Poisson()

• Prior:

Gamma(,)

Posterior

( ∣ data) ∼ Gamma(

,

)

 =  + ∑ 

¥∂

¥

 = Ó

—

 + Ô



Predictive

Neg.Binomial( = 

, = 

)

Binomial/Beta • Model:

(  ∣ ) ∼ Binomial(,)

• Prior:

 ∼ Beta(,,1)

Posterior

( ∣ data) ∼ Beta(

,

,1)

 =  + ∑ 

¥∂

¥

 =  + [() − ∑ 

¥∂

¥

]

Predictive -Exponential/Inv. Gamma • Model:

(  ∣  ) ∼ Exponential()

• Prior:

 ∼ Inv.Gamma(,)

Posterior

( ∣ data) ∼ Inv.Gamma(

,

)

 =  + 

 =  + ∑ 

¥∂

¥

Predictive

Pareto( = 

, = 

)

Normal/Normal • Model:

(  ∣  ) ∼ Normal(,)

• Prior:

 ∼ Normal(,)

Posterior

( ∣ data) ∼ Normal(

,

)

 = ̅ + (1− )

 = (1− )

Predictive

Normal( = 

,

 =  + 

)

Uniform/S-P Pareto • Model:

(  ∣  ) ∼ Uniform(0,)

• Prior:

 ∼

 S-P Pareto

(,)

Posterior

( ∣ data) ∼

 S-P Pareto

(

,

)

 =  + 

 = max(,

,…,

)

Predictive -Exact Credibility

Bayesian estimate = Bühlmann estimate

• Poisson/Gamma • Binomial/Beta

• Exponential/Inv. Gamma • Normal/Normal

Empirical Bayes Non-Parametric Methods Uniform Exposures

̂ = ∑ ∑ 

!

∂

¥

¥∂

 ⋅ 

÷ = ∑ ∑ ¬

!

∂

¥

 − ̅

¥

¥∂

( − 1)

÷ = ∑ (̅

!

¥

 − ̅)

¥∂

 − 1 − ÷

Non-uniform Exposures

̂ = ∑ ∑ 

"

¥

¥

∂

!

¥∂

÷ = ∑ ∑ 

"

¥

¬

¥

 − ̅

¥

∂

!

¥∂

∑ (

!

¥

 − 1)

¥∂

÷ = ∑ 

!

¥

(̅

¥

 − ̅)

 − ÷( − 1)

¥∂

 − 



∑ 

¥

!

¥∂

Balancing the Estimators

Estimate E

H

M as: ̂ = ∑ 

¥

̅

¥

!

¥∂

∑ 

!

¥

¥∂

Empirical Bayes Semi-Parametric Methods To estimate

÷

:

Model %

Poisson()

̅

Neg.Binomial(,) ̅(1 + )

Gamma(,)

̅

To estimate

̂

 and

÷

, use the non-parametric method formulas shown above.

(4)

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Copyright © 2018 Coaching Actuaries. All Rights Reserved. 4

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Personal copies permitted. Resale or distribution is prohibited.

Expenses and Profit

Variable Expense Ratio:  = 

ä

Fixed Expense Ratio:  = 

ç

Permissible Loss Ratio: PLR = 1−  −

ë

,

where

ë

 is the target profit and contingencies ratio Premium

Unearned premium for CY

:

 = 

 −

U

 +

U\í

Extension of Exposures Method

Recalculates the premiums of historical policies under the current rate l evel Parallelogram Method

Calculates average factors to be a pplied to the aggregate historical premiums to make them on-level

Ratemaking Loss Ratio Method

Indicated Avg.Rate Change =   +

1 − − 

ë

 −1

Indicated Relativity

U

 = Current Relativity

U

 ⋅ 



òôöõ

U

Indicated Base Rate = Current Base Rate ⋅ 1+ Indicated Avg.Rate Change

Off-Balance Factor

Off-Balance Factor = Indicated Avg.Relativity

Current Avg.Relativity

Pure Premium Method

Indicated Avg.Rate = † +†

1 − − 

ç

ë

Avg.Relativity

U

 = Avg.Rate

Base Rate

U

U

Adj.†

U

 =

Avg.Relativity

U

U

 ⋅ Exposure

U

Indicated Relativity

U

 =  Adj.†

Adj.†

òôöõ

U

Indicated Base Rate =  Indicated Avg.Rate

Indicated Avg.Relativity

Credibility-Weighted Relativities

New Relativity = (Indicated Relativity) +(1 −)(Current Relativity)

Other Topics

Increased Limit Factor

 = ()+

()+ 

ß

®

: original limit •

: increased limit

Rate of policy variation with limit

 = 

ß

 ⋅ Indicated Base Rate

Loss Elimination Ratio



©

 = ()− ()

̅ −()

: original deductible •

: increased deductible

Rate of policy variation with deductible

 = (1− 

©

)⋅ Indicated Base Rate

Insurance Coverages

Homeowners Coinsurance

Compensation:  = /min,  ⋅ 7,  < 

min(,),  ≥ 

Disappearing Deductible

Deductible decreases linearly over a specific range:

 =  ,  ≤ 

 −

 −7,  <  ≤ 

0,  > 

Claim Payment:

 =

0,

 ≤ 

 −,  <  ≤ 

  − −

 ,

 − 7,  <  ≤ 

 > 

Loss Reserving

Expected Loss Ratio Method 1.

K

M.

 = 

 ⋅

2.

 = K

M.

 − 

S

Chain-Ladder Method

a.k.a. Loss Development Triangle Method 1.

 

UM.

 = ∏ 

XWYZ[\

W

2.

K

UM.

 = 

U,Z

 ⋅ 

UM.

3.

 = K

M.

 −

S

Bornhuetter-Ferguson Method

 = K

M.

1 − 1 

M.

7 where

K

M.

 is calculated based on the expected loss ratio method •

 

M.

 is calculated based on the c hain-ladder method

Alternatively,

 =  ⋅



 +(1 −) ⋅ 



 where  = 1 

M.

Frequency-Severity Method  Alternate Method:

1. Apply the chain-ladder method to frequency and severity separately 2.

K

M.

 = k

M.

 ⋅ K

M.

3.

 = K

M.

 − 

S

Closure Method: Frequency 1.

U,W

 =

k

,

q.



,

2.



U,W

 = ̂

W

k

UM.

 −

U,W\

z

Aggregate

1.

|

U,W

 = 

U,W

 ⋅ 

U,W

2.

 = ∑ |

U[WÄ

U,W

, where

 is the valuation CY Data Preparation

Losses

Incurred losses for CY

:

 = 

US

 + 

U

 −

U\

where

U

 is the reserves at the end of CY

Incurred losses for AY or PY

:

 = 

US

 + 

U

where

U

 is the reserves as of the valuation date

† †

††

  ̅

SHORT-TERM INSURANCES Losses Projected Losses  Aggregation

• Calendar Year (CY) • Accident Year (AY) • Policy Year (PY)

• Trend Period • Trend Factor • Loss Development Factors Develop to Ultimate Trending Premium

Premium at Current Rates

 Aggregation Current Rate Level • Calendar Year (CY)

• Policy Year (PY)

• Extension of Exposures   Method

(5)

References

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