Exam STAM
Exam STAM
Adapt to Your Exam
Adapt to Your Exam
SEVERITY, FREQUENCY &
SEVERITY, FREQUENCY &
AGGREGATE MOD
AGGREGATE MODELSELS
Basic Basic
CDFs, Survival Functions, and Hazard Functions CDFs, Survival Functions, and Hazard Functions
(()) = = PrPr(( ≤ ≤ )) = = * * (())
//
--
dd
(()) = = PrPr(( >
> )) = = * * (())
--
//
dd
ℎℎ(()) = = (())
(())
(()) = = * * ℎℎ(())
//
--
d d = = −−lnln(()) ; ; (()) = =
((--))
Moments MomentsEE[[(( )])] = = * * (())⋅ ⋅ (())
//
//
dd
= * ′
= * ′(())⋅ ⋅ (())
//
dd
DD
raw moment: raw moment:
HH
= = EE[[
]] ; ;
HH
= =
DD
central moment: central moment:
= = EE[([( −
−))
]]
VarVar[[ ]] = =
MM
= =
MM
VarVar[[(( )])] = = EE[[(( ))
MM
]] − E − E[[(( )])]
MM
Covariance:
Covariance:
CovCov(( , ,)) = = EE[[ ]] − −EE[[ ]]EE[[]]
Coefficient of variation: =
Coefficient of variation: =
Skewness =
Skewness =
__
__
; Kurtosis =
; Kurtosis =
Moment and Probability Generating Functions Moment and Probability Generating Functions
(()) = = EE[[
]]
(())
((00)) = = EE[[
]]
where where
(())
is the is the
DD
derivative derivative
(()) = = EE[[
]]
(())
((11)) = = EE[[ (( − 1
− 1))⋯⋯(( −
− ++11)])]
where
where
(())
is the is the
DD
derivative derivative Conditional Distributions Conditional DistributionsPrPr(( ∣ ∣ )) = = Pr Pr(( ∩
PrPr(()) == Pr Pr(( ∣ ∣ ))PrPr(( ))
∩ ))
PrPr(())
∣
∣
(()) = =
PrPr(( < < < < )),where < <
(())
,where < <
Law of Total Probability Law of Total Probability
PrPr(( =
= )) = = EE
[[PrPr(( =
= ∣ ∣ )])]
Law of Total Expectation Law of Total Expectation
EE
[[ ]] = = EE
EE
[[ ∣ ∣ ]]
Law of Total Variance Law of Total Variance
VarVar
[[ ]] = = EE
VarVar
[[ ∣ ∣ ]]+Var
+Var
EE
[[ ∣ ∣ ]]
Independence Independence For independent
For independent
andand
,, ••
PrPr(( = = ,, = = )) = = PrPr(( = = ))⋅ Pr⋅ Pr(( = = ))
••
EE[[(( )) ⋅ ℎ ⋅ ℎ(()])] = = EE[[(( )])] ⋅ E ⋅ E[[ℎℎ(()])]
Parametric DistributionsParametric Distributions Special Distribution Shortcuts Special Distribution Shortcuts
−
− ∣ ∣ > >
Pareto
Pareto((,,)) Pareto
Pareto((,
, ++))
Exponential
Exponential(()) Exponential
Uniform
Uniform((,,)) Uniform
Uniform((0, −
Exponential(())
0, − ))
Zero-Truncated Distributions Zero-Truncated Distributions
áá
= = 111 −1 −
,,fofor = 1
r = 1,,2,⋯2,⋯
EE[([(
áá
))
]] = = 111 −1 −
E E[[
]]
Zero-Modified Distributions Zero-Modified Distributions
ää
= = 1 − 1 −
11− −
ää
,,fofor = 1
r = 1,2,,2,⋯⋯
EE[([(
ää
))
]] = = 1 − 1 −
11− −
ää
E E[[
]]
(,,0)
(,,0)
Class Property Class Property
= = + + ,,fofor = 1
r = 1,2,,2,⋯⋯
Mixtures and Splices Mixtures and Splices Bernoulli Shortcut Bernoulli Shortcut If
If
== ã ã, , PrProbobababililitity y = =
, , ProProbababibilility ty = = 1 1 −−
, then:, then:VarVar[[ ]] = = ( ( − −))
MM
((1 −1 −))
Poisson-Gamma Mixture Poisson-Gamma Mixture If
If
∣ ∣ ∼ P∼ Poisson
oisson(())
where where ∼ Gamma
∼ Gamma((,,))
,, thenthen
∼
∼ Neg.
Neg.Binomial
Binomial(( = , =
= , = ))
.. Frailty ModelsFrailty Models
ℎℎ(( ∣ ∣ )) = ⋅
= ⋅ (())
(()) = =
ôô
[[−−(()])],,whe
where re (()) = = * * (())
//
--
dd
Insurance Applications Insurance Applications
öö
: payment per loss: payment per loss Policy Limits, Policy Limits,
öö
= ∧ =
= ∧ = ù ù , , < <
, , ≥ ≥
EE[([(
öö
))
]] = = EE[([( ∧
∧ ))
]]
= = * *
üü
(())
d d ++
⋅ ⋅ (())
= *
= *
üü
(())
dd
Increas
Increased Limit Fac
ed Limit Factor:
tor: =
= E E[[ ∧
EE[[ ∧
∧ ]]
∧ ]]
•
•
: original limit: original limit ••
: increased limit: increased limit Deductibles, Deductibles,
Ordinary deductible: Ordinary deductible:
öö
= = ( ( −
−))
••
= = ã ã 0 0, , < <
−
−, , ≥ ≥
EE[[
öö
]] = = EE[([( −
− ))
••
]] = = EE[[ ]] − E − E[[ ∧
∧ ]]
EE[([(
öö
))
]] = = EE[([( − −))
••
]]
= = ** (( − −))
¶¶
//
(())
dd
= = * * (( − −))
¶¶
//
(())
dd
Loss eliminiation ratio: =
Loss eliminiation ratio: = E E[[ ∧
∧ ]]
EE[[ ]]
Franchise deductible: Franchise deductible:
öö
= = ã ã00, , < <
, , ≥
≥
EE[[
öö
]] = = EE[([( −
− ))
••
]] + + ⋅ ⋅ (())
Payment per Payment Payment per Payment
©©
: payment per payment: payment per paymentEE[[
©©
]] = = E E[[
(()) ; ; EE[[
öö
]]
öö
]] = = EE[[
©©
]]⋅ ⋅ (())
With ordinary deductible With ordinary deductible
,,[[
©©
]] = = (()) = = EE[[ − − ∣ ∣ > > ]] = = E E[([( − −))
(())
••
]]
Special Shortcuts for Special Shortcuts for
(())
(())
Exponential
Exponential(())
Uniform
Uniform((,,))
− − 22
Pareto
Pareto((,,))
+ +
− −11
S-P S-PPareto((,,))
Pareto
− −11
The Ultimate Formula for Insurance The Ultimate Formula for InsuranceEE[[
öö
]] = = ((1 +1 +))™E´ ∧
™E´ ∧ 1 +1 +≠≠− E− EÆÆ ∧ ∧ 1 +1 +ØØ
where where
: deductible (set to 0 if : deductible (set to 0 if not applicable)not applicable)
: policy limit (set to: policy limit (set to∞∞
if not applicable) if not applicable)
: coinsurance (set to 1 if not applicable): coinsurance (set to 1 if not applicable)
: inflation rate (set to 0 if not applicable): inflation rate (set to 0 if not applicable): maximum covered loss,
: maximum covered loss,which equal
which equalss + +
Aggregate L
Aggregate Loss Modelsoss Models Collective Risk Model Collective Risk Model If
If
== ∑ ∑
µµ¥∂¥∂
¥¥
for for independentindependent
and and
, then:, then: ••
EE[[]] = = EE[[]]EE[[ ]]
••
VarVar[[]] = = EE[[]]VarVar[[ ]] + +VaVarr[[]]EE[[ ]]
MM
Impact of Deductibles on Claim Frequency Impact of Deductibles on Claim Frequency For For = Pr
= Pr(( >
> ))
,, ′′
Poisson Poisson
Binomial Binomial,, ,
,
Neg. Neg. Binomial Binomial,, ,
,
Negative Binomial/Exponential Compound Models Negative Binomial/Exponential Compound Models
ãã ∼ Neg.Binomial
∼ Neg.Binomial((,,))
∼ Exponential
∼
Exponential(()) ππ
⇕⇕
ªª ∼ Binomial ™,
∼
∼ Exponential
∼ Binomial ™, 1 +1 +
Exponential(([[11+ + ])])ºº
Compound Poisson Models Compound Poisson Models
A collective risk model where the frequency A collective risk model where the frequency follows a Poisson distribution.
follows a Poisson distribution.
SEVERITY, FREQUENCY
SEVERITY, FREQUENCY & AGGREGATE& AGGREGATE
MODELS
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Risk MeasuresValue-at-Risk (VaR)
VaR
æ
( ) =
.I
()
Tail-Value-at-Risk (TVaR)
TVaR
æ
( ) = E ∣ > VaR
æ
( )y
= VaR
æ
( ) +VaR
æ
( )y
TVaR
æ
( )
Normal + ¿¬
æ
√
1 − ƒ
LognormalE[ ] ⋅ ¿Φ¬ −
æ
√
1 − ƒ
Coherence( )
is coherent if it satisfies the properties below: • Translation invariance:( + ) = ( )+
• Positive homogeneity:() = ⋅ ( )
• Subadditivity:( + ) ≤ ( )+()
• Monotonicity:() ≤ ()
, ifPr( ≤ ) = 1
VaR is not coherent because it fails subaddivity. TVaR is coherent.Tail Weight
1. Fewer positive raw moments
⟹
heavier tail 2. Iflim
-→
À
Ã
(-)
(-)
= ∞
or-→
lim
Õ
Õ
À
Ã
(-)
(-)
= ∞
, then numerator has a heavier tail.3.
ℎ()
decreases with ⟹
heavy tail 4.()
increases with⟹
heavy tail CONSTRUCTION AND SELECTION OF PARAMETRIC MODELSMaximum Likelihood Estimators Steps to Calculating MLE
1.
() = ∏ ()
2.() = ln()
3.
H
() =
–
–—
()
4.Set
H
() = 0
Incomplete Data Left-truncated at
() ()
⁄
Right-censored at
()
Grouped data on interval(,]
Pr( < ≤ )
Special Cases Distribution Shortcuts Gamma, fixed
” = ̅
Normal̂ = ̅
÷
= ∑
g¥∂I
¥
−̂
Lognormal̂ = ∑ ln
¥
g¥∂I
÷
= ∑ (ln
g¥∂I
− ̂
¥
)
Poisson◊ = ̅
Binomial, fixed
÷ = ̅
Neg. Binomial, fixed
◊ = ̅
Zero-Truncated Distribution:• Match
E[
á
]
to̅
Zero-Modified Distribution:• Match
Bä
to the proportion of zero observations • MatchE[
ä
]
to̅
Uniform Distribution on
(0,)
: •” = max(
I
,
,…,
g
)
Choosing from
(,,0)
ClassTwo methods to fit data to an
(,,0)
class distributions:• Method 1: Compare
̅
and
•Method 2: Observe the slope of
Gg
‹
g
‹›À
Distribution Method 1 Method 2 Poisson
̅ =
0 Binomial̅ >
Negative Neg. Binomial̅ <
Positive Variance of MLE Fisher’s Information One Parameter:() = −E
[′′()]
Var”y = [()]
.I
Two Parameters:(,) = −E
¿
fi,—
H
fiHH
(,)
(,)
fi,—
H
—HH
(,) ƒ
(,)
[(,)]
.I
= fl Var[÷] Cov÷,”y
Cov÷,”y Var”y ‡
Delta Approximation One-Variable:Var¬”√y ≈ Æ ()Ø
Var”y
Two-Variable:Var¬÷,”√y ≈ (
fiH
)
Var[÷] +2
fiH
—H
Cov÷,”y
+(
—H
)
Var”y
Confidence Interval” ±
(I•æ)/
‰ Var ”y
Hypothesis Tests
B
: null hypothesis
I
: alternative hypothesisReject
B
when test statistic>
critical value
is true
is false Reject
Type I Error Correct Decision Fail to reject
DecisionCorrect Type II Error Hypothesis Tests: Kolmogorov-Smirnov Empirical DistributionEqual probability for each observation
g
() = # of observations ≤
Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test
Test statistic: = max
ÍÎÎ
y
where
= max¬Ï
g
¬
√−
∗
¬
√Ï,Ï
g
¬
.I
√−
∗
¬
√Ï√
If data is truncated at
, then
∗
() = ()− ()
1 − () ,for ≥
Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test Properties • Individual data only
• Continuous fit only
• Lower critical value for censored data • If parameters are estimated, critical value
should be adjusted
• Lower critical value if sample size is large • No discretion
• Uniform weight on all parts of distribution
()
PlotGraph the difference between empirical CDF and fitted CDF
Peak:
() =
g
¬
√−
∗
¬
√
Valley:() =
g
¬
.I
√−
∗
¬
√
-
PlotCoordinate: Ó
g
¬
√,
∗
¬
√Ô where
g
¬
√ =
+ 1
Hypothesis Tests: Chi-Square Goodness-of-Fit Chi-Square Goodness-of-Fit Test
Test statistic:
= Ò¬
−
√
G
∂I
where
•
: # of groups•
: expected # of observations in group
•
: actual # of observations in group
Degrees of freedom= − 1 −
where •
: # of estimated parametersChi-Square Goodness-of-Fit Test Properties • Individual and grouped data
• Continuous and discrete fit
• No adjustments to critical value for censored data
• If parameters are estimated, critical value is automatically adjusted via degrees of freedom • No change for critical value if s ample size is
large
• Data needs to be grouped according to
• More weights on intervals with poor fit Hypothesis Tests: Likelihood RatioTest statistic: = 2[(
I
) − (
B
)]
Degrees of freedom
= # of free parameters in
I
− # of free parameters in
B
Score-Based Approaches Two types of criteria:
• Schwarz Bayesian Criterion (SBC), a.k.a. Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) • Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)
SBC/BIC
− 2ln
AIC −
where:
log-likelihood:# of estimated parameters
: sample size
Select model with the highest SBC or AIC value.
CONSTRUCTION AND SELECTION OF PARAMETRIC MODELS
CREDIBILITY Classical Credibility
a.k.a. Limited Fluctuation Credibility Full Credibility
# of exposures needed for full credibility,
ı
: Full credibility of aggregate claims:
ı
= ´
(•æ) ⁄
≠
(
)
# of claims needed for ful l credibility,
ˆ
: Full credibility of aggregate claims:
ˆ
= ´
(•æ) ⁄
≠
fl
µ
µ
+
‡
• Full credibility of claim frequency: set
= 0
•Full credibility of claim severity: set
˜
¯Ã
˘
¯
= 0
ˆ
=
ı
⋅
µ
;
ı
=
µ
ˆ
Partial CredibilityCredibility premium:
˙
= ̅ + (1 − )
= + (̅ − )
where
: manual premium
: credibility factor/credibilitySquare Root Rule: = ¸
ı
= ¸ ′
ˆ
where
: actual # of exposures′
: actual # of claims Bayesian Credibility Model DistributionDistribution of model conditioned on a parameter Model density function:
( ∣ )
Prior Distribution
Initial distribution of the parameter Prior density function:
()
Posterior DistributionRevised distribution of the parameter Posterior density function:
( ∣ data)
( ∣ data) = (data ∣ ) ⋅()
∫ (data ∣ ) ⋅ () d
//
Predictive Distribution
Revised unconditional distribution (w.r.t. model) of the model
Predictive density function:
( ∣ data)
Predictive Mean = Bayesian Premium
Bühlmann Credibility
Expected Hypothetical Mean (EHM):
= EE[ ∣ ]
Expected Process Variance (EPV):
= EVar[ ∣ ]
Variance of Hypothetical Mean (VHM):
= VarE[ ∣ ]
Bühlmann : =
Bühlmann Credibility Factor: = +
Bühlmann Credibility Premium:
˙
= ̅ + (1 − )
= + (̅ − )
Bühlmann As Least Squares Estimate of Bayesian
Minimize
∑ ´
ÍÎÎ -
-
¬
-
− ”
-
√
≠
where
-
: Bayesian estimate given
=
”
-
: Bühlmann estimate given
=
Properties of a Bayesian/Bühlmann graph • Bühlmann estimates are on a straight line • Bayesian estimates are within the range ofhypothetical means
• There are Bayesian estimates above and below the Bühlmann line
• Bühlmann estimates are between the sample mean and theoretical mean
Conjugate Priors Poisson/Gamma • Model:
Poisson()
• Prior:Gamma(,)
Posterior
( ∣ data) ∼ Gamma(
∗
,
∗
)
•
∗
= + ∑
¥∂
¥
•
∗
= Ó
—
+ Ô
PredictiveNeg.Binomial( =
∗
, =
∗
)
Binomial/Beta • Model:( ∣ ) ∼ Binomial(,)
• Prior: ∼ Beta(,,1)
Posterior
( ∣ data) ∼ Beta(
∗
,
∗
,1)
•
∗
= + ∑
¥∂
¥
•
∗
= + [() − ∑
¥∂
¥
]
Predictive -Exponential/Inv. Gamma • Model:( ∣ ) ∼ Exponential()
• Prior: ∼ Inv.Gamma(,)
Posterior
( ∣ data) ∼ Inv.Gamma(
∗
,
∗
)
•
∗
= +
•
∗
= + ∑
¥∂
¥
PredictivePareto( =
∗
, =
∗
)
Normal/Normal • Model:( ∣ ) ∼ Normal(,)
• Prior: ∼ Normal(,)
Posterior
( ∣ data) ∼ Normal(
∗
,
∗
)
•
∗
= ̅ + (1− )
•
∗
= (1− )
PredictiveNormal( =
∗
,
= +
∗
)
Uniform/S-P Pareto • Model:( ∣ ) ∼ Uniform(0,)
• Prior: ∼
S-P Pareto(,)
Posterior( ∣ data) ∼
S-P Pareto(
∗
,
∗
)
•
∗
= +
•
∗
= max(,
,…,
)
Predictive -Exact CredibilityBayesian estimate = Bühlmann estimate
• Poisson/Gamma • Binomial/Beta• Exponential/Inv. Gamma • Normal/Normal
Empirical Bayes Non-Parametric Methods Uniform Exposures
̂ = ∑ ∑
!∂
¥
¥∂
⋅
÷ = ∑ ∑ ¬
!∂
¥
− ̅
¥
√
¥∂
( − 1)
÷ = ∑ (̅
!¥
− ̅)
¥∂
− 1 − ÷
Non-uniform Exposureŝ = ∑ ∑
"¥
¥
∂
!¥∂
÷ = ∑ ∑
"¥
¬
¥
− ̅
¥
√
∂
!¥∂
∑ (
!¥
− 1)
¥∂
÷ = ∑
!¥
(̅
¥
− ̅)
− ÷( − 1)
¥∂
−
∑
¥
!¥∂
Balancing the Estimators
Estimate E
HM as: ̂ = ∑
¥
̅
¥
!
¥∂
∑
!¥
¥∂
Empirical Bayes Semi-Parametric Methods To estimate
÷
:Model %
Poisson()
̅
Neg.Binomial(,) ̅(1 + )
Gamma(,)
̅
To estimate
̂
and÷
, use the non-parametric method formulas shown above.www.coachingactuaries.com
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Expenses and Profit
Variable Expense Ratio: =
ä
Fixed Expense Ratio: =
ç
Permissible Loss Ratio: PLR = 1− −
ë
,where
ë
is the target profit and contingencies ratio PremiumUnearned premium for CY
:
Uí
=
Uì
−
U
+
U\í
Extension of Exposures Method
Recalculates the premiums of historical policies under the current rate l evel Parallelogram Method
Calculates average factors to be a pplied to the aggregate historical premiums to make them on-level
Ratemaking Loss Ratio Method
Indicated Avg.Rate Change = +
1 − −
ë
−1
Indicated Relativity
U
= Current Relativity
U
⋅
òôöõ
U
Indicated Base Rate = Current Base Rate ⋅ 1+ Indicated Avg.Rate Change
Off-Balance Factor
Off-Balance Factor = Indicated Avg.Relativity
Current Avg.Relativity
Pure Premium Method
Indicated Avg.Rate = † +†
1 − −
ç
ë
Avg.Relativity
U
= Avg.Rate
Base Rate
U
U
Adj.†
U
=
Avg.Relativity
U
U
⋅ Exposure
U
Indicated Relativity
U
= Adj.†
Adj.†
òôöõ
U
Indicated Base Rate = Indicated Avg.Rate
Indicated Avg.Relativity
Credibility-Weighted Relativities
New Relativity = (Indicated Relativity) +(1 −)(Current Relativity)
Other Topics
Increased Limit Factor
= ()+
()+
ß
®
•
: original limit •
: increased limitRate of policy variation with limit
=
ß
⋅ Indicated Base Rate
Loss Elimination Ratio
©
= ()− ()
̅ −()
•
: original deductible •
: increased deductibleRate of policy variation with deductible
= (1−
©
)⋅ Indicated Base Rate
Insurance CoveragesHomeowners Coinsurance
Compensation: = /min, ⋅ 7, <
min(,), ≥
Disappearing Deductible
Deductible decreases linearly over a specific range:
= , ≤
−
−7, < ≤
0, >
Claim Payment: =
⎩
0,
≤
−, < ≤
− −
,
− 7, < ≤
>
Loss ReservingExpected Loss Ratio Method 1.
K
M.
=
⋅
2.
= K
M.
−
S
Chain-Ladder Methoda.k.a. Loss Development Triangle Method 1.
UM.
= ∏
XWYZ[\
W
2.
K
UM.
=
U,Z
⋅
UM.
3. = K
M.
−
S
Bornhuetter-Ferguson Method
= K
M.
1 − 1
M.
7 where
•
K
M.
is calculated based on the expected loss ratio method •
M.
is calculated based on the c hain-ladder methodAlternatively,
= ⋅
+(1 −) ⋅
where = 1
M.
Frequency-Severity Method Alternate Method:
1. Apply the chain-ladder method to frequency and severity separately 2.
K
M.
= k
M.
⋅ K
M.
3. = K
M.
−
S
Closure Method: Frequency 1.
U,W
=
k
,
q.
,
2.
U,W
= ̂
W
k
UM.
−
U,W\
z
Aggregate1.
|
U,W
=
U,W
⋅
U,W
2.
= ∑ |
U[WÄ
U,W
, where
is the valuation CY Data PreparationLosses
Incurred losses for CY
:
UÉ
=
US
+
U
−
U\
where
U
is the reserves at the end of CY
Incurred losses for AY or PY
:
UÉ
=
US
+
U
where
U
is the reserves as of the valuation date† †
†
††
̅
SHORT-TERM INSURANCES Losses Projected Losses Aggregation• Calendar Year (CY) • Accident Year (AY) • Policy Year (PY)
• Trend Period • Trend Factor • Loss Development Factors Develop to Ultimate Trending Premium
Premium at Current Rates
Aggregation Current Rate Level • Calendar Year (CY)
• Policy Year (PY)
• Extension of Exposures Method