Schedule Development Project Planning and Time Management

(1)

(2)

(3)

Activity

Duration

Estimating



Estimate activity duration is the

Estimate activity duration is the process

process

of approximating the number of work

periods needed to complete individual

activities with

(4)

Estimate

Activity

Duration

•

• Input:Input:

–

– Activity ListActivity List

–

– Activity AttributesActivity Attributes

–

– Activity Resource RequirementActivity Resource Requirement

–

– Resource CalendarsResource Calendars

–

– Project Scope StatementProject Scope Statement

–

– Enterprise environmental factors (Databases and Ref. data, Productivity metrics &Enterprise environmental factors (Databases and Ref. data, Productivity metrics &

published commercial

published commercial informationinformation

–

– Organizational Process Assets -Historical, Project Calendar, SchedulingOrganizational Process Assets -Historical, Project Calendar, Scheduling

methodology, Lesson Learnt methodology, Lesson Learnt

•

• TTools ools & T& Techechniqniquesues

–

– Expert JudgmentExpert Judgment

–

– Analogous estimating (Duration, budget, size, weight & Complexity from a previousAnalogous estimating (Duration, budget, size, weight & Complexity from a previous

project) project)

–

– Parametric estimating (square footageParametric estimating (square footage – – cost budget & duration) cost budget & duration)

–

– Three-point estimates (PERT) Most likely, Optimistic, Pessimistic = te = to + 4tmThree-point estimates (PERT) Most likely, Optimistic, Pessimistic = te = to + 4tm

+tp / 6 +tp / 6

–

– Reserve analysis (Cater for schedule uncertainty)Reserve analysis (Cater for schedule uncertainty)

•

• OutputsOutputs

–

– Activity duration estimates (@ weeks +- 2 Activity duration estimates (@ weeks +- 2 days etc)days etc)

–

– Project document updates (activity Project document updates (activity attributes, attributes, assumptions made in developing theassumptions made in developing the

activity duration) activity duration)

(5)

Padding:

◦

With the help of WBS

◦

work package (the WBS dictionary)

◦

activity list.

◦

Equip the estimator relevant

information.

Padding is a sign of unprofessional project management



So, what is wrong with padding?

◦

A pad is extra time or cost added to an estimate.

(6)

Padding:

Padding is a sign of unprofessional project management!

◦ In cases where the estimator has many unknowns, the need for a pad should

be addressed through the risk management process, and the uncertainties should be turned into identifiable opportunities and threats (risks).

◦ Uncertainties should not remain hidden; instead, they need to be identified

and addressed openly with the project manager.

 Think about what happens if all or many of your estimates are padded: you have

a schedule that no one believes.

◦ If that is the case, why even bother creating a schedule?

◦ In the real world, we need the schedule to manage the project against, so we

need it to be as believable and realistic as possible and we need to adhere to it.

◦ To be a successful project manager, you need to be able to make sure the

agreed-upon project completion date (or cost) is met.

◦ It is important to understand that padding is a sign of poor project

(7)

Exercise 1



What do you need before you try to

(8)

A

n

s

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1 :

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u

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f

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r

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p

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?

 An understanding of the work required on the project (project scope statement)  Defined activities (WBS, WBS dictionary and activity list)

 The order of how the work will be done (activity sequencing)

 An estimate of the resources needed (activity resource estimating)

 An estimate of the duration of each activity (activity duration estimating)

Let's get more specific. You should also have:

• A company calendar identifying what are the working and non-working

days • Imposed dates • Milestones • Assumptions • Constraints • Activity list

• Risk management plan-because it includes a schedule and budget for

performing risk

• identification, qualitative risk analysis and other risk management

activities

• Risk register-because it includes risks known to date • Leads and lags

(9)

Exercise

2

2 Now

Now

,

Please thin

k

about the r

eal w

orld and

create a schedule that you will be

able to

stake your r

eputation

& SUGGEST

What would y

ou need to do in order to

take the estimating data and create a

finalized schedule?

(10)

w w e e r r e e 2 2 : : T T h h i i n n k k a a b b o o u u t t t t h h e e r r e e a a l l w w o o r r l l d d . . Y Y o o u u n n e e e e d d t t o o c c r r e e a a t t e e a a s s c c h h e e d d u u l l e e t t h h a a t t y y o o u u w w i i l l l l a a b b l l e e t t o o s s t t a a k k e e y y o o u u r r r r e e p p u u t t a a t t i i o o n n

o o n n m m e e e e t t i i n n g g . . W W h h a a t t w w o o u u l l d d y y o o u u n n e e e e d d t t o o d d o o i i n n e e r r t t o o t t a a k k e e t t h h e e e e s s t t i i m m a a

t t i i n n g g d d a a t t a a a a n n d d c c r r e e a a t t e e s s u u c c h h a a f f i i n n a a l l i i z z e e d d s s c c h h e e d d u u l l e e ? ? 1.

1.

Work with stakeholders' priorities

2.

Look for alternative ways to complete the

Look for alternative ways to complete the work

work

3.

Look for impacts on other projects

4.

Meet with

Meet with managers to negotiate for

managers to negotiate for resour

resource availabilit

ce availabilityy

5.

Give the team a chance to approve the final schedule. They might have

estimated an activity, but should also look at the calendar allocation of

their estimates to see if

their estimates to see if they are feasible

they are feasible

6.

Adjust all the components of the project management plan

7.

Simulate the project using Monte Carlo analysis

8.

Level resources

9.

Conduct meetings and

Conduct meetings and conv

conversations to gain

ersations to gain stakeholder and

stakeholder and

management formal approval

The data available so far is put into a schedule, called the schedule model, and

the project manager then

the project manager then performs various calculations and alternative what-

performs various calculations and alternative

what-if analysis to

if analysis to determine the

determine the optimum schedule.

optimum schedule.

Schedule development is iterative

and will occur

many times over the

life of the project (at least once per project life cycle phase).

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Conflict Intensity Over the Life of a

Project

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

Project Project Formation Formation Ea

Early rly PhPhaseases s MidMiddldle e PhPhaases ses EnEnd d PhPhasesases

C C o o n n f f l l i i t c c t I I n n t t e e n n s s i i t t y y Schedules Schedules Priorities Priorities Manpower Manpower Technical opinions Technical opinions Procedures Procedures Cost Cost Personality conflicts Personality conflicts Average Average Total Conflict Total Conflict

(12)

Develop Schedule

• Develop Schedule is the process of analyzing activity sequence, duration, resource

requirements and constraints to create project schedules

• Input

– Activity List

– Activity Attributes

– Project Schedule Network Diagrams

– Activity Resource Requirements

– Resource Calendars

– Activity duration estimates

– Project Scope Statement

– Enterprise environment factors

– Organizational process assets

• Tools & Techniques

– Schedule network analysis

– Critical path method

– Critical chain method (manage limited resources)

– Resource Leveling

– What-if scenario analysis

– Applying leads and lags

– Schedule compression

– Scheduling tool

• Output

– Project Schedules (milestone chart, bar charts, project schedule network diagrams)

– Schedule baseline Component of project management plan with baseline start & finish dates.

– Schedule Data (resource requirement by time period in resource histogram best & worst case

(13)

Schedule Network Analysis



PERT



Critical path method



Schedule compression



What-if scenario analysis



Resource leveling

(14)

PERT

In PERT analysis, instead of obtaining one

estimate from each expert, experts are

asked to provide an optimistic, realistic and

pessimistic estimate.

(15)

PERT



Optimistic



Realistic



Pessimistic

6 estimate

Optimistic

estimate

Realistic

4 estimate

c

Pessimisti

duration

Expected

   

(16)

PERT Dialogue

How long do you think it would take

to send 100 surveys out?

(17)

PERT Dialogue

It all depends. I have seen people do it in 6 hours and I have seen others do it in 1 hour.

(18)

PERT Dialogue

But given what I know about your operations I

think it will take 2 hours.

(19)

PERT Dialogue

5 .

2

6

15

6

1

2

4

6 duration

Expected

     

Pessimistic estimate = 6 hours

Optimistic estimate = 1 hour

Realistic estimate = 2 hours

(20)

PERT Formula and Example



PERT weighted average =

optimistic time + 4 * most likely time + pessimistic time

6



Example:

optimistic time= 8 days

most likely time = 10 days

pessimistic time = 24 days

PERT weighted average =

8 workdays + 4 X 10 workdays + 24 workdays = 12 days

6

Therefore, you’d use

12 days on the network diagram instead of 10

when using PERT for the above example.

(21)

Take Home Lesson

Estimate-Talk-Estimate and PERT method can

increase accuracy of estimate of duration of

activities

(22)



Estimates are in hours. It is best to calculate to three decimal

places and round to two decimal pIaces.

Expected Activity Duration = (P+4M+O)/6 Activity Standard Deviation = P-O/6

Activity Variance = [(P-O)/6]2

PERT: Example 1

P M O PERT or Expected duration Activity Standard

Deviation Activity Variance (Rance of Estimate) Range of the estimate A 47 27 14

B 89 60 41 C 48 44 39 D 42 37 29

(23)

PERT

P M O PERT or Expected duration Activity Standard

Deviation Activity Variance (Rance of Estimate) Range of the estimate

A 47 27 14 28.167 5.500 30.250 22.667 to 33.667 or 28.167 +/- 5.500

B 89 60 41 61.667 8.000 64.000 53.667 to 69.667 or 61.667 +/- 8.000

C 48 44 39 43.833 1.500 2.250 42.333 to 45.333 or 43.833 +/- 1.500

(24)

PERT

 Note that the previous formulas relate to activities, rather than the overall project. But

knowing the ranges of individual activity duration estimates is not enough to manage a project successfully; you need to understand how these ranges affect the overall project duration estimate in order to effectively address variations on your project.

 Range for the overall project duration estimate is not as simple as finding the range

for an individual activity estimate. You start by finding the expected project duration:

◦ This is the sum of the PERT estimates (EADs, or Expected Activity Durations) for each

activity on the critical path. You then find the standard deviation for the project.

◦ You cannot simply add the standard deviations for each activity on the critical path. ◦ Instead, you must calculate the variances for each critical path activity,

◦ Add those variances, and then take the square root of the sum of the activity

variances.

◦ So the project duration estimate range is the expected project duration (the sum of the

FADS) plus or minus the project standard deviation (the square root of the sum of the activity variances).

(25)

PERT: Exercise 2

 Assuming that the activities listed in Exercise 1, make up the entire critical path for the project,

how long should the project take?

 The answer is 170.167 hours +I- 10.06 hours at one standard deviation.

P M O PERT or Expected duration Activity Standard Deviation Activity Variance (Rance of

Estimate) Range of the estimate

A 47 27 14 28.167 5.500 30.250 22.667 to 33.667 or 28.167 +/- 5.500 B 89 60 41 61.667 8.000 64.000 53.667 to 69.667 or 61.667 +/- 8.000 C 48 44 39 43.833 1.500 2.250 42.333 to 45.333 or 43.833 +/- 1.500 D 42 37 29 36.500 2.167 4.696 34.3333 to 38.667 or 35.500 +/- 2.167

For Critical Path: 170.167 101.196

160.167 to 180.227 or 170.167 +/-10.060 10.059622 Project PERT or Expecte d Duration Project Standard Deviation Project Varianc

e Range of the Estimate

Project PERT or Expected Duration Project Standard Deviation Project

Variance Range of the Estimate Project

Duration

(26)

 The expected duration of the project, 170,167, is found by adding the PERT

estimates for each of the critical path activities (in this case, all the activities listed).

 The +I- 10.06 represents the standard deviation of the estimate (the range of the estimate)

and is found by adding the variances of the critical path activities, total of 101.196, and

taking the square root to get 10.060.

 In order to find the standard deviation of a series of items, remember the rule.

You cannot add standard deviations; you must convert standard deviations into variances, add the variances, and then take the square root of the total to

convert back into standard deviation.

 This calculation means adding 30.250 + 64.000 ₊ 2.250 + 4.696 and taking the

square root to find 10.06.

 Therefore, if we add one standard deviation to the PERT total (for a 68.26

percent confidence level ; see the Quality Management), the project would not be estimated to take 170.167 hours, but between 160.107 hours and 180.227 hours. If we add two standard deviations (for a 95.46 percent confidence Ievel), the project would be estimated to take between 150.047 hours and 190.287 hours (170.167 +I- 20.12).

PERT: Exercise 2

(27)

Critical Path Method



The critical path method includes

determining the longest path in the

network diagram (the critical path) and the

earliest and latest an activity can start and

the earliest and latest it can be completed.



The critical path is the longest duration

path through a network diagram and

determines the shortest time to complete

the project.

(28)

How does the critical path help the

project manager?



Helps prove how long the project will take



Helps the project manager determine where

best to focus their project management efforts



Helps determine if an issue needs immediate

attention



Provides a vehicle to compress the schedule

during project planning and whenever there

are changes



Provides a vehicle to determine which

activities have float and can therefore be

delayed without delaying the project

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Near-Critical Path



In addition to the critical path, a smart project

manager should be familiar with the concept of a

near-critical path.



This path is close in duration to the critical path.



Something could happen so the critical path is

shortened, or the near-critical path lengthened so

the near-critical path becomes critical.



The closer the near-critical and critical paths are,

the more risk the project has.



The project manager should spend more time

and effort monitoring and controlling critical and

near-critical path activities so they don't delay the

project completion.

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Float (Slack)



Total float (slack) The amount of time an activity

can be delayed without delaying the project end date

or and intermediary milestone. This is the key type of

float, but there are others.

◦

Please note that the terms float and slack mean the

same thing.



Free float (slack) The amount of time an activity

can be delayed without delaying the early start date

of its successor(s).



Project float (slack)

The amount of time a project

can be delayed without delaying the externally

imposed project completion date required by the

customer, management, or previously committed to

by the project manager.

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 Activities on the critical path almost always have zero float. Critical path

activities that are delayed or have dictated dates can result in negative float.

Float = LS – _ES _{Float = LF - EF}

 HOW

◦ Once you know the critical path and any near-critical paths, you can

use float as a way to focus your management of a project.

◦ Better allocation of resources.

◦ For example, let's say you have a resource who is not very

experienced and you must make use of him. You can assign him, assuming he has the skill set, to work on the activity with the most float. This gives you some safety that even if his activity takes longer, the project will not be delayed.

◦ Float also helps team members juggle multiple projects.

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Float (Slack)

(32)

Critical Chain Scheduling



Critical Chain Project Management (CCPM),

developed by Eliyahu M. Goldratt, is a

method of planning and managing projects

that puts more emphasis on the resources

required to execute project tasks.



A Critical Chain project network will tend

to keep the resources levelly loaded, but will

require them to be flexible in their start

times and to quickly switch between tasks

and task chains to keep the whole project

on schedule.

◦

Typically, CCPM case studies report 95% on-time

and on-budget completion when CCPM is

(33)

Wake UP ….

QuiZ

 Can there be more than one critical path?

 Yes, you can have two, three or many critical paths.  Do you want there to be?

 No, it increases risk.

 Can a critical path run over a dummy?  Yes.

 Why is a dummy included in a network diagram?

 To show interdependencies of activities on an activity-on-arrow diagram.  Can a critical path change?

 Yes. .

 How much float does the critical path have?  The critical path should have zero float.

 Can there be negative float?  Yes, it shows you are behind.

 Does the network diagram change when the end date changes?

 No, not automatically, but the project manager should investigate options such as fast

tracking and crashing the schedule to meet the new date and then, with approved changes, change the network diagram accordingly.

 Would you leave the project with a negative float?  No, you would compress the schedule.

(34)

Exercise: 1

Let's start with an exercise that uses the AOA type diagram. You can complete these exercises without using a forward and backward pass. Using the table below, draw the network diagram and answer the questions.

1) What is the critical path?

2) If the duration of Activity C-E changes to 2,what is the effect on the project?

3) What activity (activities) must be completed before Activity C-D begins? 4) If management tells you to complete the project two weeks early, what is the project float? Does the critical path change?

(35)

1)

2)

(36)

3) Start-A, A-C, and Start-B.

Caution!!! The question is really trying to get you to

answer Start-B because that is what the dummy is for,

to show that dependency. Remember there are no

one-letter activity names (e.g., not activity C, but activity

A-C. B-C is a dummy, not an activity.

4) The project float is -2 and the critical path would not

change. This question is about project float.

Remember project float compares the project

length to an external due date.

(37)

Exercise 2



What is the critical path?



What is the near-critical path and what does knowing

this information about this project tell you?



If the duration of activity Start-B changes to 4, what is

(38)

Exercise 2



Start-A, A-C, C-F, F-End. It has a duration of 21 weeks.



There are two near-critical paths, each with a duration of 20. This

tells you that the project has more risk than a project with only

one near-critical path with a wider difference in length between

the critical and near-critical paths.

(39)

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 You are the project manager for a new project and have figured out the following

dependencies.

 Activity 1 can start immediately and has an estimated duration of three weeks.

 Activity 2 can start after activity 1 is completed and has an estimated duration of three

weeks.

 Activity 3 can start after activity 1 is completed and has an estimated duration of six weeks.  Activity 4 can start after activity 2 is completed and has an estimated duration of eight weeks.  Activity 5 can start after activity 4 is completed and after activity 3 is completed. This activity

takes four weeks. Questions:

1. What is the duration of the critical path? 2. What is the float of activity?

3. What is the float of activity 2?

4. What is the float of the path with the longest float?

5. The resource working on activity 3 is replaced with another resource who is less

experienced. The activity will now take l0 weeks. How will this affect the project?

6. Using the original information, after some arguing between stakeholders, a new activity 6 is

added to the project. It will take 11 weeks to complete and must be completed before

activity 5 and after activity 3.Management is concerned that adding the activity will add 11

weeks to the project. Another stakeholder argues the time will be less than 11 weeks. Who is correct?

(40)

Exercise 3

1) The length of the critical path is 18. There are two paths here:

2) LF - EF = 14 - 9 = 5 3) Zero

4) Five weeks. There are only two paths in this example; Start, 1, 2, 4, 5, End and Start, 1, 3, 5, End. The length of the non-critical path (Start, i,3,5, End) is 13. The length of the project is 18 and 18 - 13 is 5. The total float of the path with the longest float is

Total Length = 18 Weeks

(41)

Exercise 3

5) It will have no effect. The length of path activities 1,3,5 is 13. Adding four more weeks to the length of activity 3 will take that path 17. Since it is shorter than the critical path, the critical path does not change. The length is still 18 weeks because activity 3 is not on the critical path.

6) The stakeholder. This new activity will be added to a non-critical path that has float of 5 weeks. Therefore, adding 11 weeks will make this path the new critical path. The overall effect will be that adding an activity that takes 11 weeks will only delay the project by 6 weeks.

7) Six weeks longer. (NOTE: if you answered 24, it means you did not read the question correctly!) Follow the dark line in the diagram below.

(42)

Exercise 4

1.

What is the duration of the

critical path?

2.

To shorten the length of the

project, the sponsor has offered

to remove the work of activity

E from the project, making

activity D the predecessor to

activities G and F. What will be

the effect?

3.

What is the float of activity B?

4.

What is the float of activity E?

5.

What is the float of activity D?

(43)

Exercise 4

1) The critical path (project duration) is 33 months.

2) No effect on the critical path. The paths are now:

(44)

Exercise

4

Total Length = 33 Months

3) Float B = LF - EF (or 33 - 18) = 15 4) Float E = LF - EF (or 13 - 12) = 1 5) Float D = 5 - 4 = 1 month.

(45)

Schedule Compression

Who’s fault to have an

_{unrealistic schedule:}

Many project managers think an unrealistic schedule is

their boss' fault,

when it is really a lack of good project management; it is

the project manager's fault!



One of the most common problems

(46)

Schedule Compression



When do you need Schedule

compression

◦

project planning when the customer

requires a completion date that cannot be

met, or

◦

during project executing when the project

manager needs to bring the project back in

line with the schedule baseline or to adjust

the project for changes.

(47)

Schedule Compression

–

Techniques:



Fast Tracking



Crashing

(48)

Schedule Compression

–

Technique: Fast Tracking

Doing critical path activities in parallel that

were originally planned in series.

Issues with Fast Tracking:



Rework,



Increases risk

(49)

Schedule Compression

–

Technique: Fast Tracking

Using the network diagram above, what activity would you fast

track to shorten the project length?

•

Activity H could be fast tracked by making it occur at the same time,

or in parallel with, activity G.

•

Activities C and H (or any other pair of activities on the critical path)

could also be fast tracked by having part of activity C done

concurrently with activity H.

(50)

Schedule Compression

–

Technique: Crashing

Cost and schedule tradeoffs are analyzed to

determine the greatest amount of compression

for the least incremental cost. Crashing, by

definition, almost always results in increased

costs.



For example, using the diagram shown in the

previous fast tracking discussion, resources

could be added to activity G or any other

activity on the critical path.



These resources could be acquired from

(51)

Schedule Compression

–

Technique: Crashing

(52)

Fast Tracking or Crashing



In crashing or fast tracking, it is best to see all potential choices and

then select the choice or choices that have the least impact on the

project.



If you have negative project float (the estimated completion date is after

the desired date) would your first choice be to tell the customer the

date could not be met or to ask for more time?

◦ No, the first choice would be to analyze what could be done about

it by compressing the schedule.



If you have to choose between crashing and fast tracking, what would

you do?

◦ Adding resources to the project would generally cost more than fast tracking. ◦ However, crashing can also mean moving resources around within the

project.

If making such moves does not add cost, then

crashing would be preferable to fast tracking.

(53)

Exercise

During project planning, the project duration is estimated to be 33 months. However, you have been given a completion date of 30 months. Using the

network diagram below, and the limited information available, describe as many options as possible for shortening the schedule to 30 months.

Make any assumptions you need to make in order to come up with as many options as possible.

(54)

(55)



Which of the options listed is the best? To answer the question, think

of the impacts to the project of each one.

◦ Is it option 7? Why not cut quality?

◦ Is there another option? Why not do what many project managers do, ask

for more resources? But adding resources may also add cost.

◦ Why not work overtime? Overtime should be one of the last choices. Most

organizations are working at close to 100 percent capacity. Your project working overtime removes the possibility of resources working on

emergencies for any other project they are working on, thereby putting other projects at risk. Besides, how much overtime can one take? Overtime is not always free.



Why not do something that does not add cost to your project?



The first, and possibly the best, choice is to look at risks. Once it is

known the schedule (or budget) must be reduced, a project manager

can investigate the activity estimates that contain the most unknowns,

eliminate or reduce these "risks" and thus decrease the estimate.

Eliminate risks in the risk

management process and everyone

wins!

(56)

What are the impacts of different

schedule shortening options?



Fast track

◦

Adds risk

◦

May add management time for the project manager



Crash

◦

Almost always adds cost

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May add management time for the project manager



Reduce scope

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Could save cost and time

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May negatively impact customer satisfaction



Cut quality

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Could save cost and resources

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May increase risk

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Exercise:

1) Imagine that this project has a project float of -3 months. Which activity or activities presented above would you crash to save three months on the project, assuming that the activities listed above represent critical path activities?

2) How much would it cost to crash this project? The options to save three months are:

1) Activities F and H is the least expensive

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Exercise

Consider: Management has told you to get the project completed two weeks early. What is the BEST thing for you to do?

A. Consult the project sponsor B. Crash

C. Fast track

D. Advise the customer (management) of the impact of the change Did you get fooled by this question?

Did you think you had to choose between crashing and fast tracking?

There is no information in the first part of this exercise to help you determine which one is better.

Therefore, the best choice presented is D, inform the customer of the impact of the change.

The exam will ask many such questions requiring you to know that you analyze first and then let management, the sponsor, the customer or other parties know the impact of their requests. A project manager does NOT just say yes!

He could say, for example,

"Yes, I would be happy to make the change, BUT the project will

be delayed by two weeks, I will need two more resources or the

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Exercise :

Suppose we have a project with only 8 activities as shown in the table. Critical Path is ADEH = 27 Days.

Please determine , which activities are the Optimal candidates for crashing. Please calculate

A) Cost of crashing for each activity. B) Project cost by duration

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E

x

e

r

c

i

s

e

Cost of crashing Each Activity ACTIVITY

PROJECT

TOTAL COST CRASH COST

PROJECT DURATION 22450 27 A 22700 250 26 A 22950 25 E 24700 1750 24 E 26450 23 E 28200 22 H 30200 2000 21 H 32200 20