IT Infrastructure Trends & Directions

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IT Infrastructure Trends & Directions

October 3rd 2002

Andrew Butler

Vice President & Research Group Director

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■ Standard hardware ■ Standard applications stack ■ Deep metrics ■ High quality of service ■ Policy-based management ■ Platform choice ■ _Nonstandard app. stack ■ Many suppliers ■ _Chaotic management environment; little instrumentation ■ Low quality of service ■ Less platform choice ■ Move toward a few standard app. stacks ■ Improved instrumentation ■ Push for SLAs/metrics ■ Process maturity ■ NSM supplier shakeout ■ Active management ■ _{Effective root-cause} analysis ■ Self-healing application services ■ Policy-based management ■ Autoprovisioning

■ Service views via autodiscovery “Big Iron” Age “Big Iron” Age Distributed and Internet Revolution Distributed and Internet Revolution Age of Maturation and Platform Shake-out Age of Maturation and Platform Shake-out Renaissance Era Renaissance Era 1980s 1990s 2000 to 2005 2006 to 2010

Macro Trend on Application and Infrastructure

Central IT

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Terse data expanded on use GUI processing at client

Local copies of data

Consumer location matters Distributed centers

Application on few, big servers

Full images stored Thin is in!

Central copies of data

Centralization for scale advantage Consolidated

Application on many, little servers Compute cheaper than bandwidth Bandwidth cheaper than compute

Grid computing based on P2P

• Advertisement • Discovery

• Use

Issues and inhibitors

• Quality of service • Economics

• Privacy & security

Bandwidth Becomes More Cost-Effective Than

Computing

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Conflicting priorities

No common “owner”

Not built for x-enterprise

Incompatible NSM tools

Must integrate • NSM tools • IT processes • Help desk Must develop • Coordination • Policies • Virtual teams

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Number of Software Vendors

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Innovators of Internet boom burn themselves &

venture capital cash

Oligopoly of fewer vendors

Return of green shoots of innovation, new entrants

and big VC cash

Big brand stacks slow down their innovation, products

mature

Most surviving small firms just complement the big

brand stacks

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Half of today’s software vendors gone by 2004

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Utility

High reliability

Lowest cost

Enhancement

ROI-based Prioritized

Frontier

Strategic linkage Risk balancing

Business Units, Not IT, Will Make Most Application

Decisions

9% 63% 28% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 38% 30% 33% Future Today

Percentage of IT Resource Allocation Resource Function Frontier/ Strategic Enhancement/ Efficiency Utility/ Maintenance

The lines of business want to see more of a transition to innovation

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Where is the Money Going?

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

Hardware Software IT Services Telecom Equipment Telecom Services 0.00% 0.20% 0.40% 0.60% 0.80% 1.00% 1.20% 1.40% 1.60% 1.80% 2002 2003 Growth Rate

EMEA IT Market Forecast, 2002-2003

Billions of $ Percent Growth

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0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Server Appliance < $5k $5k-$10k $10k-$25k $25k-$100k $100K-$500K >$500K Linux Windows Other UNIX

Consolidation Platforms Rise, Midrange Collapse

-13%

-28% _-53%

+29%

+13%

EMEA Server Market: 1H02 Billions of $

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Would you be willing to replace or bypass current Microsoft Windows servers with Linux if near-equivalent applications existed for Linux, even if the software is a commercially licensed package?

Yes: 53% No: 47%

Source: Data Center Conference Survey (December 2001) and Dataquest Forecasts (1H02)

Pressure on Microsoft From Unix Resilience & Linux

Adaptability

0 5 10 15 20 25 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Windows Unix Linux Other Billions of $ Value of Shipments by OS

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Distributed computing (scale out) Monolithic computing (scale up)

Processors 64+ 32 16 8 4 2 1

Traditional

tower or

frame-based

servers

Compute

clusters

New

NUMA

Rack dense

G

r

i

d

Matching Server Technology Choices to Enterprise

Needs: 2002 - 2007

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Desktops

Client

Devices

• Databases • Documents • Images ERP SCM CRM HR

Business

Application

Server

Internet

Access

Line of

Business

Enterprise

Data

Data/ Content

Server/

Warehouse

Network Edge

Servers

Compute Clusters

R&D, biotech, geophysical, energy, environment, visualize

Infrastructure

Server/Blade

• Directory • Security • Load balance • File/print • Web • E-mail • NAS

Linux in the Enterprise

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zSeries and Linux: Where Are The Savings?

Improved availability Reduced people costs

• If the number of images is reduced significantly or

• If administration efficiency is improved sufficiently

• After consolidation alternatives are ruled out

Reduced software costs

• If engine-based or switching to open source

• Until software vendors adjust pricing

Reduced hardware costs

• If the number of systems is reduced significantly

• If moving from a non-Linux environment

• After consolidation alternatives are ruled out

Efficient use of hardware

• If workload peaks are offset

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Size of

Application

Portfolio

Independent Software Vendor Enthusiasm

HP-UX

Windows 2000

HP NonStop

IBM AIX

•

• Solaris/

SPARC

Solaris/

SPARC

HP Tru64 Unix

•

• IBM OS/400

IBM OS/400

•

• IBM z/OS

IBM z/OS

•

• Caldera Open

UNIX

Caldera Open

UNIX

•

• Red Hat Linux

Red Hat Linux

•

• HP OpenVMS

HP OpenVMS

•

• _{Other Linux}

_{Other Linux}

•

• Linux on zSeries

Linux on zSeries

Safe for virtually

all mainstream

deployment

Safe for many

target segments

and installed base

leverage

Limited verticals,

niche segments

and installed base

only

Commercial ISV Support Profile

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Match Consolidation Options To Required Benefits

Footprint Manageability Vertical Scaling Horizontal Scaling CPU Utilization Isolation Application OS Hypervisor Frame Generic Rack Server/Node Rack Workload Manager Physically Partitioned Logically Partitioned

Best

_Worst

Blades/ Bricks June 2002 Software Firmware/ Software Circa 40 (1.6Mtr) Up To 300 (1.6Mtr)

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Today’s Computing Geography — Static

and Unsharable Islands

Service A

Edge

Application

Database

Service B

Service C

• Inefficient

• Overprovisioned

• Hard to manage

Current state is inflexible and does not reflect business priorities

(And Many

Others)

STRATEGIC PLANNING ASSUMPTION: Policy-based computing services are inevitable, rolling out in phases through 2010 (0.8 probability), driving lower IT costs, greater quality of service and greater agility. Those IT organizations and service providers not embracing them will risk

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Gartner’s Server Evaluation Model -- Weighted Data

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

IBM zS erie s HP NonS top Sun 15K HP S upe rdom e IBM Regat ta FSC Pri mepo we r IBM x440 HP Prol iant Dell Power Edg e Uni sys ES 7000

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NAS NAS SAN

SAN iSCSI iSCSI SAN

SAN FibreFibre Channel Channel

Direct Attach Direct Attach

Storage Network Adoption Rate

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Block based Private Over-hyped No-standards yet File based

Not general-purpose, niche Simple to deploy

Public & Standardized SCSI over IP

Block access

Low cost, entry level SAN Interconnection over wide area

Lower performance

Highest Performance Management overhead Proprietary

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PC Vendors - Fighting More, Taking Less

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90 100%

4Q98

4Q01

4Q04

Channel Margin

Vendor Margin

OS

Other

Processor

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Software Tortoise, Hardware Hare

‘01

‘02

‘03

‘94

‘95

‘96

‘97

‘98

‘99

‘00

Pentium

Hardware capacity will continue to

outpace software requirements for

the foreseeable future

Excess

Capacity

Excess

Capacity

P4

3.11 95

NT4

_2K

98SE

XP

PIII

PII

GHz

100

300

500

700

900

1.8 3+

MHz

Need fo

r speed

Need fo

r speed

Action Item: Organizations should begin the due diligence to determine whether a four-year replacement strategy is applicable.

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g Multi-regional support

g _{Large-scale integration}

g Local presence

g _{High touch} g Accountability

g _{Specific business knowledge}

Global Vendors

Regional Vendors

Large Enterprise

SMB

Education

Gov’t

Vendor Suitability

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Infrastructure Recommendations

Server consolidation is driving the demand for agnostic server fabrics and policy-based computing. We encourage clients to target servers three years or older for replacement and possible consolidation.

Do not select the storage technology first and then look for solutions. Direct-attached storage (DAS), SAN and NAS are all viable solutions, but typically they are for different situations. Check your challenges, set your targets and then select the most appropriate technology.

The launch of Itanium II alone will not stimulate a volume market; expect that widespread Windows and Linux Itanium adoption will not commence until at least 2004.

ISV enthusiasm is still a major selection criterion for server platform

selection. But the volatile market makes it hard to guess the ISV leaders of tomorrow, and how and when today’s ISVs will endorse Linux and IPF.