• No results found

Valuation 2003A 2004E 2005E 2006E

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2021

Share "Valuation 2003A 2004E 2005E 2006E"

Copied!
19
0
0

Loading.... (view fulltext now)

Full text

(1)

Financial Reports

Tecnologico de Monterrey

Burkenroad Latin

America (Mexico)

Burkenroad Reports is produced by a select group of students at ITESM. This report is based on

information available to the public and does not purport to be a complete statement of all data

relevant to the securities mentioned and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Furthermore, this

report is not an offer to buy or sell a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned.

Analysts:

Advisors:

Eny García

Aurelio Aguilar

Ma. Concepción del Alto

Bárbara de la Garza

Jordán Rodríguez

Miguel Moreno Tripp

Oliver Fernández

Carlos Morán

Roberto Martínez

All amounts are as of the date of the report as reported by BMV, and Infosel Inversionista. *EBITDA is based on operating income plus depreciation and amortization, divided by the number of shares outstanding.

** Equity Market Capitalization is based on market price for the number of shares outstanding.

All amounts in Mexican pesos .

*** Enterprise value is based on market capitalization adjusted for long-term debt, minority interest, cash, and short-term investments.

^Performance is based on ending prices and dividends for the November 2003 to November 2004 period.

Valuation

2003A

2004E

2005E

2006E

EPS

$0.75

$1.16

$2.77

$2.30

P / E

29.03x

18.82x

7.90x

9.50x

EBITDA*

$4.56

$7.23

$9.11

$7.12

P / EBITDA

4.80x

3.03x

2.40x

3.07x

Market Capitalization

Stock Data

Shares Outstanding (000)

286,129

52-Week Range:

$17.56 - $22.31

Market Cap (M)

$5,293

12-Mo. Stock Performance: ^

5.956%

Enterprise Value (M)**

$7,033

Dividend declared on 06/05/04

$0.60

6-Mo. Avg. Daily Volume:

86,042

Book Value Per Share

$18.40

Beta

0.87

November 1, 2004

GRUPO INDUSTRIAL SALTILLO, S.A. de C.V.

GISSA*/BMV

CONTINUING COVERAGE: GISSA faces economic

challenges by maintaining and adapting strategies.

Investment Recommendation: MARKET OUTPERFORM

Price: $18.40

IPC: 12,076.08

IMC30: 232.75

DJIA: 10,522.23

• Castech, a company of GISSA was awarded as Supplier of the Year 2003 by General

Motors for its excellent performance, quality, service, technology, and price.

• The automotive metal mechanical division launched operations of an iron plant,

CIMETECH, located in Irapuato, Guanajuato, with a US$ 51 million investment, increasing

production volume at 57% compared to 2003.

• VITROMEX, a ceramic tiles plant, started operations in Chihuahua. This investment

of US$ 42 million will allow to meet actual demand and increase production capacity

by 20%.

• GISSA will start important agreements with Toyota and Nissan in 2005.

• GISSA issued Ps$ 2,160 million graded “mxAA” (national scale).

• It is recognized as one of the top 20 most ethical companies in Latin America

• Accumulated investments by the end of the third quarter amounted to US$ 58 million

in maintenance and construction of currently operating new plants.

(2)

STOCK PRICE PERFORMANCE

Source: Infosel Financiero

COMPANY DESCRIPTION

Grupo Industrial Saltillo, S.A. is a Mexican holding company with three business divisions. Founded in

1928 when Isidro López Zertuche and his brothers Carlos and Ricardo started a laminated metal products

factory. In 1975 the company name was changed to its current name and in 1985 the legal form was

changed to variable capital. In 1976 it became a listed company in the Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV)

with the ticker symbol GISSA and current series *. Its ADRs trades at the over the counter market since

March 2000 under the name GISQY. The company has joint ventures with foreign companies Nork

Hydro Aluminum, Metal Technologies, and NPL.

GISSA have subsidiaries in several locations across the country and employs 11,071 people.

The company is a conglomerate of three business units:

Metal mechanical

Building Materials

Housewares

Sales

47%

53%

Domestic

Foreign

Sales by Division at III Quarter 2004

44% 44% 12% Metal and Automotive Building Materials Housewares

Source: GISSA

1

2

(3)

Metal Mechanical Division

This business includes the manufacturing of gray cast iron, ductile iron, and aluminum for monoblocks,

motor heads and auto parts. The automotive metal mechanical has the following companies:

1.

Castech

: Aluminum blocks and heads for internal combustion engines.

2.

Cifunsa:

Iron engine blocks and heads for diesel and gasoline motors.

Tech Matec

and

Ditemsa

: The first manufactures automation systems for manufacturing processes and the

second produces plastic injection moldings and tools. They help round up

Castech

and

Cifunsa

operations.

In order to supply General Motors, a new plant of

Castech

starts operations in 2005 with a US$ 20 million

investment. This project –employing 200 people- will support

Castech’

s growth by increasing exports to

Canada and Australia; for this last country, daily exports account for 1,200 motor heads and 600 aluminum

blocks.

As for

Cifunsa,

the group invested US$ 11 million in June 2004, to expand the heart pack area for Toyota,

a new GISSA customer.

The strategy of this division is focus on developing new customers such as Toyota, Nissan, Ford and VW,

a business increase with John Deere and Caterpillar as well as an increase of the performance and focus on

larger margins products.

During the third quarter of 2004, this division contributed with 44% of consolidated sales, an increase of

68% versus 2003 and 25% against third quarter of 2003 and a 15% as compared to the second quarter of

2004. All of this was due to its US customers, John Deere and Caterpillar, the consolidation of the EV-6

project with GM and the start of the new automotive ductile iron plant.

Accumulated nine months sales had an increase of 45% versus last year’s same period. However,

EBITDA fell 14% as compared to the second quarter but a growth of 23% year to year.

Building Materials Division

This division manufactures ceramic tiles, water and air heaters, as well as markets bathroom fixtures, with

two companies:

1.

Vitromex:

Manufactures and markets ceramic tiles and bathroom fixtures. Sales for the domestic

market trough Vitromex and Artemis brands and the US market with Vitromex USA and St. Thomas

Creations brands.

2.

CINSA Boilers:

Manufactures water heaters with three brands for different market niches: Cinsa

Boilers, Cal-o-Rex, and Heat Master.

In August 2004, a new VITROMEX plant was opened in Chihuahua, with an investment of US$ 42

million. It was planned to begin operations until 2005, but an increasing demand forced the start of

operations ahead of schedule.

Since 1998, the ceramic tiles, bathroom fixtures, and water heaters segment has invested an amount of

US$ 110 million for the manufacturing plants located in the states of Guanajuato and San Luis Potosí.

(4)

This division strategy is focused on developing new products, migrate operations to more efficient plants

and an increased regional penetration as well as an increase in exports.

At the third quarter of 2004, revenues of this division were 44% of net consolidated sales. Comparing

results of this quarter with the same period in 2003 revenues grew up 5% however, operating income

decreased 10%, due to increases in raw materials costs, the start up of the Chihuahua plant, and an

unexpected provision of US$ 0.9 million, as well as the re-launching of some bathroom fixtures brands in

the US market.

EBITDA by Division

III Quarter 2004

34%

65%

1%

Metal and

Automotive

Building Materials

Housewares

Source: GISSA

Housewares Division

This division manufactures and markets stainless steel, steel enamel, and aluminum kitchenware as well as

ceramic ware, through four subsidiaries:

1.

Cinsa:

Stainless steel, steel enamel, novacero, and aluminum kitchenware and tableware.

2.

Enasa:

Stainless steel, porcelain, and enamel steel non stick kitchenware, pots, and pans.

3.

Esvimex:

High quality enamel for the ceramic industry.

4.

Santa Anita:

Household and institutional ceramic ware.

During the last two years, GISSA has been forced to lower prices due to the intense competition by

increasing imports of Chinese and South American products. In order to maintain competitiveness and

increase profitability margins, the conglomerate has increased quality standards and streamlined

production processes.

On the other hand,

Enasa

will invest a million dollars in the development of a new production line, which

will strengthen the production of non stick pans.

At the third quarter of 2004, this division sales were 12% of consolidated net revenues (Ps$ 234 million).

Comparing the third quarter of 2004 with the same period of 2003, division sales decreased 3%, operating

losses amounted to Ps$ 10 million, and EBITDA decreased 92% year-to-year.

GISSA Overall Strategies

Implementation of a quality model for goals and objectives achievement: transformation map towards

a competitive organization, supported by tools such as Kaizen and information technologies.

(5)

Leading edge technology, world class quality standards, strong distribution channels, and growth by

means of capital investment.

Focus on business identified as core businesses due to their growth and profitability potential.

Board of Directors

Name

Function

Ernesto López de Nigris

Co-Chairman

Juan Carlos López Villarreal

Co-Chairman

Felipe César Mellado Flores

Secretary

Adán Elizondo Elizondo: member of Board of Directors of Grupo Cydsa, S.A.

Proprietary Commissary

Antonio Madero Bracho: Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Board of

Directors of San Luis Corporation and member of several boards of directors.

Director

Eugenio Clariond Reyes Retana: Chairman of Board of Grupo IMSA and

member of other boards of directors.

Director

Julián Dávila: Private Investor

Director

Guillermo Elizondo López: Regional Advisor of Grupo Financiero HSBC, S.A.

de C.V.

Director

Eduardo López Alanís: Private Investor and member of Board of Directors of

Compañía Hotelera de Norte S.A.

Director

Armando López Recio: Chairman of Board of Directors of Compañía

Inmobiliaria Mágnum S.A., Chairman of Board of Directors of Compañía

Agroindustrial Makike, S.A.

Director

Andrés Marcelo Sada Zambrano: member of Board of Directors of Valores

Corporativos, S.A. de C.V. and Grupo Cydsa, S.A. de C.V

Director

José Antonio Fernández Carvajal: General Manager and Chairman of Board of

Directors of FEMSA and Coca Cola Femsa, among others.

Director

José Luís Berrondo Ávalos: member of board of HSBC and Grupo Mabe, S.A.

Director

Claudio X. González: Chairman and General Manager of Kimberly Clark de

México and member of several boards of directors.

Director

Board of Officers

Juan Carlos López Villarreal

Co-Chief Operations Officer

Ernesto López de Nigris

Co-Chief Operations Officer

Emilio del Bosque

Corporate Supplying President

Rodolfo Fernández González

Ceramic Tiles and Bathroom Fixtures Business President

José Manuel Garza Martínez

Foundry Iron Business President

Marco Antonio Barraza Valdez

Foundry Aluminun Business President

Guillermo Triana Flores

Water Heaters Business President

Marcelo Rodríguez Segovia

Housewares Business President

Francisco Guzmán Alvarez

Human Resources President

Felipe César Mellado Flores

Corporate Services President

Source: GISSA prospectus, February 2004

Corporate Governance

GISSA implemented in 2002 measures promoting a transparency culture, good management practices, and

optimization of the corporate structure, which improved the group performance. In 2003 GISSA was

acknowledged as one of the top twenty ethical companies in Latin America in a survey conducted by

Management & Excellence agency.

(6)

Financial Summary

GISSA consolidated sales at the third quarter of 2004 were Ps$6,181 million, an increase of 18.2% year to

year; 47% of total sales are domestic and the remaining 53% are exports. During the last quarter, GISSA

made investments of US$18 million for new projects and maintenance.

ROE

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

III_1999

III_2000

III_2001

III_2002

III_2003

III_2004

GISSA

ALFA

CARSO

Source: Prepared with information from Infosel Inversionista

Metal Mechanical Division grew 68% compared to same period of last year, due to a strong demand of

diesel blocks and heads, the consolidation of the US and Australia exports project of aluminum blocks and

heads, and the increase in production of iron auto parts. Recovery of the US economy is other variable

that explains this division performance; sales of this division account for 44% of consolidated net

revenues.

Sales for last quarter of 2004 are also expected to improve due to the demand of steel blocks and heads by

Chrysler, as well as new orders placed by Toyota, a client with whom GISSA recently signed an

agreement.

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

III_1999

III_2000

III_2001

III_2002

III_2003

III_2004

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Sales

Operating Margin

Source: Prepared with information from Infosel Inversionista

On other hand, Building Materials Division increased revenues in 5% compared to the same period of

2003. Performance of the water heaters and ceramic tiles business is outstanding; revenues increased for

these businesses in 12 and 7%, respectively, due to the economic recovery of the Mexican and US

markets.

The scenario for this division is positive due to several factors, among them, increased sales pushed by the

federal government housing program, consolidation of ceramic tiles marketing strategies, the increase in

water heaters and ceramic tiles exports to US, all this supported by the lowest interest rates in modern

history of Mexico. Recently, this economic sector has experienced the greatest historical growth.

(7)

GISSA opened in June 2004 the VITROMEX plant in Chihuahua, which will increase production capacity

by 20%. This will allow meeting the existing demand of ceramic tiles.

Consolidated cost of sales had an increase of 23.5% compared to the same period of 2003, due to, among

other reasons: exchange fluctuation from operations in some of the divisions of the group, as well as the

increase in some commodities; steel and iron scrap had price increases of 60% during the year. This was

the cause of operating income decrease by 19% compared to 2003. Steps to correct inefficiencies in the

plant capacity utilization and reduction of implicit costs have been taken. EBITDA was Ps$905 millions,

an increase of 9% compared to the same period of 2003.

It is important to mention that the Company has taken steps towards correction of inefficiencies in plant

utilization thereby reducing implicit costs.

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

18.00

20.00

III_1999

III_2000

III_2001

III_2002

III_2003

III_2004

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

Interest Coverage

Long Term Liabilities/EBITDA

Source: Prepared with information from Infosel Inversionista

INDUSTRY ANALYSIS

Metal-Mechanical Industry

This industry is cyclical and its performance depends basically on automobiles demand. Since the US is

one of the largest consumers, this industry is tightly related with the economic growth of that country.

This industry is under several risks, challenges, and threats. One of the most important is the constant is

the variation on manufacturing costs (iron, steel, energy, natural gas) prices, together with the permanent

capital investment needs to keep a competitive position in the market.

Recently, the Mexican Automotive Industry Association stated that the production of January-August

2004 increased 9% (146,065 units), 4.4% lower than that for the same period in 2003. In August, export

units were 110,050, accounting for 79% of total production. Although the number of units of last year has

not been exceeded, recovery in the following months is expected.

(8)

Car Production Units Index

Source:INEGI

According to a CEPAL study, automotive industry shows great challenges, but it could double its capacity

by 2010, provided increased competitiveness through innovation, logistics development, and labor

training.

In this area, GISSA has continues to invest strongly in its iron and aluminum blocks manufacturing plants,

and given that the automotive industry is growing, this division is expected to generate the largest portion

of revenues in the group.

In this regard, last March, the Secretary of Economy authorized a decrease in customs duties for steel

imports from countries with whom Mexico does not have free trade agreements. This will benefit GISSA

by allowing an increase of its suppliers’ portfolio and improving operating margins thanks to raw

materials costs reduction.

As of the third quarter, Mexican economy shows a GDP growth of 4.4%, compared to same period of

2003. This increase is explained by a high performance of industrial activity, which includes outstanding

improvement of manufacturing activity (5.0%). An increase in exports and improvement in employment

levels had a favorable effect on this industry.

That, as well as the US economy strength. According to Banamex, the US economy has performed

according to the beginning of 2004 analysts expectations with an increase of the GDP grater than last

year’s 3%. Such increase was achieved notwithstanding higher oil prices and the fact that at the second

semester there were not important fiscal aids. Analyst’s expectations set end of year GDP growth at 4.4%.

The industrial sector has been benefited by this set of conditions, as is the case of the car manufacturing

sector. For example, from the first to the second semester of 2004, there was an increase greater than 15%

Source: INEGI and Santander

Mexico – Gross Domestic Product (Annual Variation %)

0

50

100

150

200

250

1993/01

1993/09

1994/05

1995/01

1995/09

1996/05

1997/01

1997/09

1998/05

1999/01

1999/09

2000/05

2001/01

2001/09

2002/05

2003/01

2003/09

2004/05

(9)

in the light vehicle and it is expected a slight increase for the next year. This is also supported by an

increase in car loans due to lower interest rates and better economic conditions as mentioned before.

Altogether , this imply growth opportunities for GISSA, since more than 50% of its sales are exports.

However, Brazil is a latent threat in the production of specialized auto parts, and intends to expand to

markets such as Germany, Hungry, and Argentina, projecting exports of US$ 100 million by 2007. But

actual pressure comes from the fact that the American market prompted Sabo Company to invest US$ 10

million in Brazil to build a second facility that will serve General Motors, which is GISSA’s main client.

Construction Industry

GISSA is an active participant in the building material sector, that has enjoyed a dynamic behavior in the

last years.

Due to demographic tendencies and plans that support housing construction, Mexican government

forecasts that housing demand will grow during the next twenty five years, and is planning to build

approximately twenty million houses. According to INEGI´s projections for 2005, federal support will

amount to Ps$ 126.3 million, both for financing the acquisition and house improvements, which represents

an actual growth of 4.5% compared to current year.

This industry has grown considerably; according to Lloyd’s economic report, listed companies in the

house construction industry experienced a 55% growth as of June 2004. During April-June 2004 alone,

21,116 houses were built, and by the end of the year, an above 14% growth for the housing industry is

expected.

Source: CONAPO

On another hand, INEGI forecasts that demand for houses during 2004 – 2006 will be around 2.1 million

units, while 1.1 million households will require repair and maintenance. Demand is focused mainly in five

states: Estado de Mexico 21.2%, Baja California 7%, Veracruz 6.9%, Jalisco 6.6%, and D.F. 5.8%.

Although the construction industry in Mexico appears promising, it is not feasible to stimulate the housing

purchases without the necessary economic conditions that include attractive interest rates. For example,

mortgage loans rates in Mexico, both medium and long-term, have decreased dramatically to below 15%.

Last year, only 489 thousand houses were purchased through some form of financing and by the end of the

year this amount is expected to reach 575 thousand units. Another factor is about the tax benefits for

financial expenses on individuals mortgages, together with fierce competition among banks and other

financial institutions.

Tasa de crecimiento anual de viviendas

particulares en Mexico

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

(10)

It is important to mention that in Mexico, financing for the purchase of low value houses is dominated by

INFONAVIT, who has granted 1.8 million loans in the last three years and plans to increase credits 11.1%

per year during the next five years. If this rate continues, INFONAVIT will be the largest mortgager in

North America.

Anticipating the mortgage bonanza, several participants appear to be interested in opportunities that the

market of housing loans will offer. A clear example is that Grupo BBVA Bancomer acquired last

September, 100% of Hipotecaria Nacional, the largest private mortgage company in Mexico.

Hipotecaria Su Casita, another important mortgage company in the country, started offering mortgages in

Mexican pesos through its office in Denver, Colorado. This will allow Mexican residents in the US to

finance the acquisition of a house for their relatives in Mexico. Money transfers sent to Mexico by

Mexican residents in the US are an estimated US$ 13.3 million and are directed to purchasing non

essential goods instead of acquiring a house. This represents an attractive potential market.

On the other hand, goods and services offered increased 5.8% in actual terms from April to June 2004 due

to imports.

Also, wholesale and retail sales have grown 11.1% and 8.2% respectively, compared to the previous

quarter. This was due to middle class consumption financed by personal loans. The largest demand was

in chemical, electric material, and home products.

Based on the above and according to housing industry forecasts, prosperity and several opportunity areas

are foreseen for the Vitromex division in the medium and long term.

Home Products Industry

This division accounts for the smallest share of the group’s revenues (12%). Due to its low production

and marketing costs, China is a threat not only for GISSA, but for the Mexican industry in general.

China’s competitive advantage endangers the Mexican domestic industry. Therefore, Mexican government

has taken drastic measures, such as increasing compensatory quotas for the imports of Asian tableware,

which in the current year were 95.06%-99.81%, compared to 23%-26% rates prevailing in 1992.

On the other hand, final goods and services consumer expenditures grew 5.4% from April to June, 2004

in real terms, including home products, communication, financial services, etc.

Macroeconomic Issues

During the year, inflation was higher than expected –particularly August, September, and October. The

increase was due to increments in energy and vegetables (tomato) prices. Also, there were considerable

increase in utilities along the rise of international prices of raw materials and energy; domestic gas prices,

oil, and several raw materials are based on international prices. October is the latest inflation rate known,

with an increase of 0.69 percent equivalent to an annual rate of 5.40 percent.

(11)

Source: A NYMEX Natural Gas Future contract

According to Banxico´s latest survey, an increase in consumer prices of 0.62 percent and 0.37 percent are

expected for November and December. Analysts estimate an inflation rate of 5.18 percent for 2004, and a

underlying inflation rate of 3.85 percent. Inflation for 2005 is expected to be between 3.5 and 4.4 percent,

and is estimated in 3.93 for 2006.

Concept

SHCP

Private Industry

Banamex

Banxico

CEESP

2004

2005

2004

2005

2004

2005

2005

2005

GDP (% annual actual)

4.0

3.8

4.02

3.72

4.3

3.7

4.1

3.9

Inflation (% annual)

3.9

3.0

5.18

4.19

5.4

4.4

3.9

3.6

Cetes 28 (% at Dec)

7.7

7.8

8.09

8.33

8.3

9.0

7.9

7.4

Exchange Rate Dec

11.3

11.6

11.54

11.95

11.4

11.9

11.91

11.55

Fiscal deficit (% of GDP)

0.3

0.1

0.32

0.29

N.A.

N.A.

0.4

0.2

Mexican oil mex dpb)

29.2

23

31.72

29.08

N.A.

N.A.

26.5

26

GDP US (% annual actual)

4.4

3.7

4.3

3.49

N.A.

N.A.

3.6

3.9

The latest CETES rate for 28 days is 8.36 percent, the highest in the last 18 months; this adds to nine

weeks of interest rates increases in a row.

EMBI Spread Mexico vs. Global

(12)

An important issue is the urgent necessity of a tax reform, to modernize the tax system and make energy

production a more competitive industry, and a key element in industries such as GISSA.

PEER GROUP ANALYSIS

ALFA

ALFA is a Mexican conglomerate consisting of five business units: aluminum auto parts,

telecommunications, steel, food, and petrochemical y synthetic fiber. Through its subsidiary Nemak,

ALFA has an important international position as leader in the production of aluminum motor heads.

ALFA owns manufacturing plants both in Mexico and other countries, and exports to more than 45

countries. Consolidates sales for third quarter is Ps$

41,746

million. It employs 30,193 people. Ticker

symbols: ALFAA (BMV) and XALFA (Latibex).

CARSO

CARSO is a group of domestic companies that participate in the automotive, construction, energy and

telecommunications industries. This group also manufactures aluminum, copper, and PVC products, and

has operations in the chemical and mining industries. The group competes in the retail arena with

department stores such as Sanborns, Sears, and music stores, as well as the bakery chain El Globo. In the

consumer arena, Porcelanite, a direct competitor of GISSA, manufactures tiles. Cigatam manufactures

and markets tobacco. The group’s consolidated sales for Ps$ 49,070 million, at the end of September

2004. This group employed 72,594 people. BMV ticker symbol: GCARSOA1.

DESC

Companies that compete in four sectors: auto parts, chemical, food, and real estate. In the first business,

DESC manufactures a range of products, from pistons, steel rims, traction axels, and motor trains. It is

positioned as the largest independent manufacturer in Mexico. In the chemical business, DESC produces

synthetic rubber, methyl methacrylate, polystyrene, decorative laminates and chipboard. The food division

includes processed food and pig farms. Finally, the real estate business has ambitious project for the

construction of corporate buildings and housing areas. At the end of the third quarter in 2004, DESC had

consolidated sales were Ps$ 17,387 million, and employed 13,854 people. Ticker symbols: DESCA,

DESCB (BMV); DES (NYSE).

Information of competitors at 3rd Quarter 2004

Sales in

Pesos (M)

% change in

sales

3Q03/3Q04

Operating

margin (%)

EBITDA in

Pesos

(M )

Liability/

Stockholders’

Equity

ROE

%

GISSA:

2,248

25

6.2

303

1.02

2.80

Metal mechanical

1,020

68

10

104

Construction

993

5

13

196

Home products

234

(3)

(4)

3

ALFA:

14,695

20.5

9.2

1,868

1.43

6.66

Nemak

2,570

9

10.4

407

CARSO:

17,173

17.9

12.5

2,756

1.23

10.53

Porcelanite

917

10

19.5

258

DESC:

6,165

12

4.5

592

1.13

N/A

(13)

Securities Exchange Information

Source: Prepared with information from Finsat, El Financiero at November 1, 2004

Divisions’ Competitors

Division:

Product:

Market share %

in Mexico:

Market

rank:

Competitors and

market share %:

Automotive

metal

mechanical

Iron blocks and heads

(gasoline)

14

2 (US)

N/A

Iron blocks and heads

(diesel)

19

2 (US)

N/A

Aluminum blocks and

heads

6

3 (US)

Nemak 40

Teksid 10

Construction

products

Ceramic tiles and walls

22

2 (Mexico)

Porcelanite 36

Lamosa 11

Interceramic 11

Water heaters

60

1 (Mexico)

Magamex 15

Bathroom fixtures

19

2 (Mexico)

Ideal Standard 19

Lamosa 18

Orion 6

Home products

Kitchenware

48

1(Mexico)

Tableware

23

1(Mexico)

El Ánfora

STRATEGIC ANALYSIS

Metal and Automotive Division

Competitors

DESC and NEMAK (ALFA)

Strengths

Experienced manufacturers of motor heads, leading edge technology,

adapts easily to change, flexible production and is globally positioned.

They have several clients for its production of steel parts.

Opportunities

Diversifying clients and international growth.

Weaknesses

Economic situation tightly related to US, showing a dependency. Limited

client portfolio, constant technology changes. Only one client in the

aluminum parts manufacturing business.

Threats

Clients have start building their own manufacturing plants. Price of some

raw materials is set by the international market, causing constant variation

and a need for hedging from events that would have a direct impact on

costs. Required capital investment is very high.

Company:

Enterpris

e value

(Million of

Mexican

pesos)

Market

capitalization

(Million of Mexican

pesos)

Trading

activity

EV/

EBITDA

P/EBITDA

P/EPS

GISSA *

7,033

5,265

6.94/Medium

7.77

5.82

23.27

ALFA A

35,485

26,130

9.34/High

6.55

4.83

10.77

CARSO A1

52,249

43,076

8.54/High

6.49

5.35

11.08

(14)

Building Materials Division

Competitors

LAMOSA, PORCELANITE and INTERCERAMIC

Strengths

Competitive product design and innovation departments, favorable market

expectations, leading edge technology, highly qualified labor.

Opportunities

Growing Mexican market for the construction business, untapped market,

expansion in international markets.

Weaknesses

Strong competition in domestic market.

Threats

High costs in human resources and working capital, due to constant

innovation in design and materials.

Housewares Division

Competitors

El Ánfora

Strengths

Few domestic competitors and good market position.

Opportunities

Manufacturing in China in order to reduce costs provided compensatory

quotas are not applied.

Weaknesses

Manufacturing costs and lack of strategies, unlike competitors.

Threats

Chinese products competing in the market, compensatory quotas.

INVESTMENT THESIS

Market leadership:

GISSA holds leadership in many businesses.

Financial soundness:

Notwithstanding some difficulties at some divisions, due to outside factors, they

have financial soundness and growth in sales.

Client development:

Asian car companies’ contracts allow GISSA to hedge risks among car companies

Consistent investment:

During 2004, GISSA has invested US$ 58 million, with a portion employed in

plants’ maintenance and the remaining for new plants construction. Opening of the VITROMEX and

CIMETECH plants are part of this strategy.

Indebtedness:

According to our projections, total debt ratio will reach its maximum level by the end of this

year (53%), and starting next year it will gradually decrease to 39%, mainly by the return of investment in

plants, and revenues that will be generated with the increased capacity.

Strong management:

Measures related to corporate governance that were implemented in 2002 are

consolidating the image of the group and strengthening its principles of austerity, labor ethics, and

commitment.

Quality:

GISSA holds important agreements with global clients that endorse product quality of the

conglomerate from Saltillo. GISSA operations follows world class quality standards and information

technology that support the organization’s competitiveness. GISSA has also set continuous improvement

practices through the Kaizen quality model.

(15)

RISK ANALYSIS

Volatility in input prices

GISSA uses raw materials -such as steel, copper, aluminum, and gas- that have international set prices

therefore, its manufacturing costs structure is affected by these variations. These costs cannot be

controlled, but their repercussions can be attenuated.

Government Reforms

Lack of legal reforms, specially it the electric sector, inhibits performance to the companies that are part

of GISSA. Energy has a high impact into operative costs.

Stagnation affecting the energy reform has a negative repercussion in GISSA’s (and other manufacturing

companies) competitiveness. Dependency on energy has a direct impact on operating costs.

Concentration of Clients

A GISSA plant located in the outer limits of Saltillo is focused in manufacturing motor heads and hearts,

and total production is destined to only one client: General Motors. This dependency is a risk for the

company, because its sales and exports are important to the group. Diversifying clients should be

considered.

Investment Requirements

GISSA participates in very competitive markets that demand consistent capital investment. If competitors

continue to enter, prices of products would decrease, and therefore, operating margins would also

decrease.

Cyclical Demand of Products

Products offered by GISSA show cyclical demand. This is due to economic situation of the countries in

which GISSA is present. Many factors are not under the control of GISSA and this has a strong impact on

the capital investments required to stay competitive.

INVESTMENT SUMMARY

Target price valuation was calculated using the discounted cash flows method or relative valuation. The

target price obtained was $21.88, therefore we are rating the stock as MARKET OUTPERFORM.

(16)

2002 A 2 003 A 3 1-Mar-04 30-Jun-04 30-Sep-04 31-Dec-04 E F A 2004 E 31-Mar-05 E 3 0-Jun-05 E 30-Sep-05 E 3 1-Dic-05 E F A 2005 E 31-Mar-06 E 3 0-Jun-06 E 30-Sep-06 E 7,620,235 7,316,179 1,937,288 2,023,617 2,262,927 2,627,424 8,851,256 2,473,869 2,511,721 2,650,269 3,076,733 10,712,592 2,877,914 2,847,009 2,950,255 5 ,447,399 5,388,249 1,545,052 1,707,393 1,767,591 1,748,321 6,768,358 1,781,372 1,863,187 1,912,808 2,047,298 7,604,664 2,072,314 2,111,902 2,129,320 2,172,837 1,927,930 392,236 316,224 495,336 879,102 2,082,898 692,498 648,534 737,461 1,029,436 3,107,928 805,600 735,106 820,935 1 ,219,536 1,245,215 257,738 176,849 355,155 456,538 1,246,280 328,505 332,735 397,865 534,609 1,593,715 382,158 377,152 442,899 953,301 682,716 134,498 139,375 140,181 422,564 836,618 363,992 315,799 339,596 494,826 1,514,214 423,442 357,954 378,035 4 27,232 164,901 (31,673) 108,414 (12,835) 37,935 101,841 34,680 32,874 33,295 28,615 129,464 39,971 30,507 28,086 526,069 517,815 166,171 30,961 153,016 384,629 734,778 329,312 282,925 306,301 466,211 1,384,750 383,470 327,448 349,950 105,257 95,503 1,759 20,772 20,962 43,492 4 20,812 422,312 164,412 10,190 132,054 384,629 691,286 329,312 282,925 306,301 466,211 1,384,750 383,470 327,448 349,950 1 68,847 192,537 61,298 3,777 55,624 191,023 311,722 114,473 98,994 128,005 231,540 573,012 133,299 114,573 146,246 251,964 229,774 103,114 6,412 76,431 193,607 379,564 214,839 183,931 178,296 234,672 811,738 250,171 212,875 203,704 2 46,531 231,485 104,722 8,400 78,007 193,607 374,391 214,839 183,931 178,296 234,672 811,738 250,171 212,875 203,704 2 46,531 231,485 104,722 8,400 78,007 193,607 374,391 214,839 183,931 178,296 234,672 811,738 250,171 212,875 203,704 246,531 231,485 104,722 8,400 78,007 193,607 374,391 214,839 183,931 178,296 234,672 811,738 250,171 212,875 203,704 8 ,695 15,868 12,506 520 17,991 10,649 41,666 4,075 (1,321) 3,798 12,470 19,022 4,741 (1,498) 4,227 2 37,836 215,618 92,216 7,880 60,017 182,957 332,726 210,764 185,252 174,499 222,201 792,716 245,430 214,373 199,476 100% 100% 100% 1 00% 100% 100% 100% 100% 1 00% 1 00% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 28.51% 26.35% 20.25% 15.63% 21.89% 33.46% 23.53% 27.99% 25.82% 2 7.83% 3 3.46% 29.01% 27.99% 2 5.82% 2 7.83% 12.51% 9.33% 6 .94% 6.89% 6.19% 16.08% 9 .45% 14.71% 12.57% 1 2.81% 1 6.08% 14.13% 14.71% 1 2.57% 1 2.81% 3.31% 3 .14% 5.32% 0 .32% 3.38% 7.37% 4 .29% 8.68% 7 .32% 6.73% 7 .63% 7.58% 8 .69% 7.48% 6.90% 3.24% 3 .16% 5.41% 0 .42% 3.45% 7.37% 4 .23% 8.68% 7 .32% 6.73% 7 .63% 7.58% 8 .69% 7.48% 6.90% -1.29% -3.99% 5.93% 24.53% 24.89% 28.15% 20.98% 27.70% 24.12% 1 7.12% 1 7.10% 21.03% 16.33% 1 3.35% 1 1.32% 1.26% -11.27% -6.16% 10.30% -0.22% 20.95% 8 .04% 76.55% 105.09% 48.88% 17.10% 49.21% 16.33% 1 3.35% 1 1.32% -9.59% -28.38% -17.81% 252.50% -19.23% 38.10% 22.54% 170.63% 126.58% 142.26% 1 7.10% 80.99% 16.33% 1 3.35% 1 1.32% -49.94% 0 .36% N/A -94.24% N /A N/A N /A 100.30% 2676.56% 1 31.95% 2 1.21% 100.32% 16.45% 1 5.74% 1 4.25% -53.13% -6.10% N/A -92.35% N /A N/A N /A 105.15% 2089.56% 1 28.56% 2 1.21% 116.82% 16.45% 1 5.74% 1 4.25% -52.05% -9.34% 175.07% -92.60% 6 02.85% 172.56% 54.31% 128.55% 2250.81% 1 90.75% 2 1.45% 138.25% 16.45% 1 5.72% 1 4 .31% 2004 E 2006 E 2005 E

(17)

2002 A 2 003 A 3 1-Mar-04 30-Jun-04 30-Sep-04 31-Dec-04 E F A 2004 E 31-Mar-05 E 3 0-Jun-05 E 30-Sep-05 E 3 1-Dic-05 E F A 2005 E 31-Mar-06 E 3 0-Jun-06 E 30-Sep-06 E 1 ,427,455 1,405,501 1,857,229 813,691 712,182 825,885 825,885 871,074 492,825 426,543 402,211 402,211 506,189 242,352 238,663 1 ,372,731 1,650,814 1,685,776 1,856,092 2,090,841 2,101,725 2,101,725 1,942,426 2,288,119 2,264,903 2,341,440 2,341,440 2,478,754 2,722,789 2,678,134 2 39,222 274,615 431,057 462,126 495,485 495,485 495,485 495,485 495,485 495,485 495,485 495,485 495,485 495,485 495,485 691,168 715,151 830,710 929,198 965,381 1,031,099 1,031,099 937,339 1,033,420 1,046,553 1,151,293 1,151,293 1,126,952 1,187,095 1,204,976 31,461 110,264 9,828 24,241 26,577 26,577 26,577 26,577 26,577 26,577 26,577 26,577 26,577 26,577 26,577 3,762,037 4,156,345 4,814,600 4,085,348 4,290,466 4,480,770 4,480,770 4,272,901 4,336,426 4,260,061 4,417,006 4,417,006 4,633,958 4,674,297 4,643,834 56,000 61,624 62,657 66,230 64,255 64,255 64,255 64,255 64,255 64,255 64,255 64,255 64,255 64,255 64,255 6 92 656 655 644 644 644 644 644 644 644 644 644 644 644 56,693 61,624 63,313 66,885 64,899 64,899 64,899 64,899 64,899 64,899 64,899 64,899 64,899 64,899 64,899 5,655,513 6,279,940 6,240,632 6,388,713 6,454,458 7,370,578 7,370,578 7,656,505 7,457,223 7,241,937 7,003,841 7,003,841 7,023,835 6,825,539 6,646,071 577,686 557,560 522,188 560,052 651,401 644,432 644,432 637,462 630,493 623,523 616,554 616,554 609,584 602,615 595,645 232,187 184,154 241,034 212,100 93,973 93,973 93,973 93,973 93,973 93,973 93,973 93,973 93,973 93,973 93,973 10,284,116 11,239,624 11,881,767 11,313,098 11,555,199 12,654,653 12,654,653 12,725,741 12,583,014 12,284,395 12,196,273 12,196,273 12,426,250 12,261,324 12,044,423 2,555,235 5 23,583 758,731 814,918 891,308 1,053,668 800,162 800,162 747,519 932,223 908,659 991,468 991,468 1,098,864 1,243,888 1,202,058 119,449 387,646 402,064 467,261 406,413 731,079 480,993 249,548 576,681 318,205 159,103 1 36,543 130,092 171,126 250,459 227,792 191,023 191,023 114,473 98,994 128,005 231,540 231,540 133,299 114,573 146,246 5 75,181 705,940 667,994 825,789 872,972 872,972 872,972 872,972 872,972 872,972 872,972 872,972 872,972 872,972 872,972 1,354,757 1,982,409 2,056,101 2,434,816 2,560,846 1,864,158 1,864,158 3,207,400 2,879,421 2,406,303 2,095,980 2,095,980 3,423,174 3,043,876 2,627,498 2,725,134 2,504,510 2,153,171 70,406 60,178 2,059,001 2,059,001 1,070,321 1,070,321 1,070,321 1,070,321 1,070,321 221,911 221,911 221,911 973,343 2,212,263 2,174,960 1,789,321 1,789,321 1,295,083 1,295,083 1,295,083 1,295,083 1,295,083 800,845 800,845 800,845 2 15,135 230,896 226,607 233,591 226,918 226,918 226,918 226,918 226,918 226,918 226,918 226,918 226,918 226,918 226,918 2,940,269 2,735,407 3,353,120 2,516,261 2,462,055 4,075,241 4,075,241 2,592,322 2,592,322 2,592,322 2,592,322 2,592,322 1,249,674 1,249,674 1,249,674 5 88,187 761,561 780,070 764,730 806,213 806,213 806,213 806,213 806,213 806,213 806,213 806,213 806,213 806,213 806,213 14,118 9,894 10,186 9,569 9,144 9,144 9,144 9,144 9,144 9,144 9,144 9,144 9,144 9,144 9,144 4,897,331 5,489,271 6,199,477 5,725,376 5,838,258 6,754,755 6,754,755 6,615,079 6,287,100 5,813,982 5,503,659 5,503,659 5,488,206 5,108,907 4,692,529 8,179,984 8,165,442 8,444,361 8,236,938 8,295,285 8,455,398 8,455,398 8,638,356 8,849,119 9,034,371 9,208,870 9,208,870 9,431,071 9,676,502 9,890,874 138,915 252,130 246,240 246,013 251,521 251,521 251,521 251,521 251,521 251,521 251,521 251,521 251,521 251,521 251,521 g s for monetar y p osition (5,614,895) (5,388,669) (5,598,984) (5,517,940) (5,527,797) (5,527,797) (5,527,797) (5,527,797) (5,527,797) (5,527,797) (5,527,797) (5,527,797) (5,527,797) (5,527,797) (5,527,797) (5,614,895) (5,388,669) (5,598,984) (5,517,940) (5,527,797) (5,527,797) (5,527,797) (5,527,797) (5,527,797) (5,527,797) (5,527,797) (5,527,797) (5,527,797) (5,527,797) (5,527,797) 237 ,836 215 ,618 92 ,216 100 ,097 160 ,113 182 ,957 182 ,957 210 ,764 185 ,252 174 ,499 222 ,201 222 ,201 245 ,430 214 ,373 199 ,476 g s 2 ,941 ,839 3 ,244 ,520 3 ,183 ,833 3 ,065 ,107 3 ,179 ,122 3 ,362 ,080 3 ,362 ,080 3 ,572 ,843 3 ,758 ,095 3 ,932 ,594 4 ,154 ,796 4 ,154 ,796 4 ,400 ,226 4 ,614 ,599 4 ,814 ,075 52,182 52,182 51,377 51,346 50,480 50,480 50,480 50,480 50,480 50,480 50,480 50,480 50,480 50,480 50,480 1,923,876 1,941,877 1,940,020 1,939,950 1,943,912 1,943,912 1,943,912 1,943,912 1,943,912 1,943,912 1,943,912 1,943,912 1,943,912 1,943,912 1,943,912 126,820 126,819 126,811 126,810 126,818 126,818 126,818 126,818 126,818 126,818 126,818 126,818 126,818 126,818 126,818 2,102,877 2,120,877 2,118,208 2,118,106 2,121,211 2,121,211 2,121,211 2,121,211 2,121,211 2,121,211 2,121,211 2,121,211 2,121,211 2,121,211 2,121,211 5 ,044,717 5,365,397 5,302,041 5,183,213 5,300,333 5,483,291 5,483,291 5,694,054 5,879,306 6,053,805 6,276,006 6,276,006 6,521,437 6,735,810 6,935,286 3 42,069 384,956 380,249 404,508 416,607 416,607 416,607 416,607 416,607 416,607 416,607 416,607 416,607 416,607 416,607 5 ,386,785 5,750,353 5,682,290 5,587,721 5,716,941 5,899,898 5,899,898 6,110,662 6,295,914 6,470,413 6,692,614 6,692,614 6,938,044 7,152,417 7,351,893 10,284,116 11,239,624 11,881,767 11,313,098 11,555,199 12,654,653 12,654,653 12,725,741 12,583,014 12,284,395 12,196,273 12,196,273 12,426,250 12,261,324 12,044,423 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 18.01% 22.56% 87.02% 91.72% 92.40% 79.99% 23.74% 78.52% 91.10% 8 5.46% 7 6.10% 21.86% 86.13% 9 5.64% 9 0.78% 9.07% 9 .77% 42.88% 45.92% 42.66% 39.24% 11.65% 37.89% 41.14% 3 9.49% 3 7.42% 10.75% 39.16% 4 1.70% 4 0.84% 74.22% 85.84% 322.13% 315.71% 285.23% 280.52% 83.27% 309.50% 296.90% 273.25% 227.64% 6 5.38% 244.06% 239.74 % 2 25.27% 6 .87% 10.37% 42.06% 44.05% 46.56% 30.45% 9 .04% 30.22% 37.11% 3 4.29% 3 2.22% 9.26% 38.18% 4 3.69% 4 0.74% 9.34% 11.43% 43.31% 53.18% 48.64% 40.50% 12.02% 39.92% 38.70% 3 7.77% 3 5.90% 10.31% 34.97% 3 4.69% 3 4.55% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 36.58% 36.98% 40.52% 36.11% 37.13% 35.41% 35.41% 33.58% 34.46% 3 4.68% 3 6.22% 36.22% 37.29% 3 8.12% 3 8.56% 54.99% 55.87% 52.52% 56.47% 55.86% 58.24% 58.24% 60.17% 59.26% 5 8.95% 5 7.43% 57.43% 56.52% 5 5.67% 5 5.18% 13.17% 17.64% 17.30% 21.52% 22.16% 14.73% 14.73% 25.20% 22.88% 1 9.59% 1 7.19% 17.19% 27.55% 2 4.83% 2 1.82% 5 .09% 6.75% 6 .86% 7.88% 9.12% 6.32% 6 .32% 5.87% 7 .41% 7.40% 8 .13% 8.13% 8 .84% 10.14% 9.98% 5.59% 13.72% 12.68% 16.81% 17.08% 15.31% 15.31% 14.62% 14.66% 1 5.25% 1 6.21% 16.21% 15.12% 1 5.17% 1 5.71% 28.59% 24.34% 28.22% 22.24% 21.31% 32.20% 32.20% 20.37% 20.60% 2 1.10% 2 1.26% 21.26% 10.06% 1 0.19% 1 0.38% 5 .72% 6.78% 6 .57% 6.76% 6.98% 6.37% 6 .37% 6.34% 6 .41% 6.56% 6 .61% 6.61% 6 .49% 6.58% 6.69% 5 2.38% 51.16% 47.82% 49.39% 49.48% 46.62% 46.62% 48.02% 50.04% 5 2.67% 5 4.87% 54.87% 55.83% 5 8.33% 6 1.04% 2004 E 2006 E 2005 E g s e x c lu d in g c u rr e n t n e t in c o m e , a n d c a p it a l

(18)

2002 A 2 003 A 3 1-Mar-04 30-Jun-04 30-Sep-04 31-Dec-04 E F A 2004 E 31-Mar-05 E 3 0-Jun-05 E 30-Sep-05 E 3 1-Dic-05 E F A 2005 E 31-Mar-06 E 3 0-Jun-06 E 30-Sep-06 E 246,531 231,485 104,722 113,122 191,130 182,957 591,932 210,764 185,252 174,499 222,201 792,716 245,430 214,373 199,476 6 82,896 737,346 122,178 306,980 450,016 243,390 1,122,564 266,718 280,352 284,479 288,366 1,119,914 291,871 300,651 305,206 929,427 968,832 226,900 420,103 641,146 426,347 1,714,496 477,481 465,604 458,977 510,567 1,912,630 537,301 515,024 504,683 947,884 919,603 50,414 147,311 311,258 59,471 568,454 601,347 193,056 474,506 515,634 1,784,544 433,483 337,144 521,301 476,716 (41,346) 613,363 (307,080) (428,173) 1,206,772 1,084,883 (10,483) (497,205) (478,564) (496,667) (1,482,919) (24,609) (505,595) (406,222) (1,006,582) (900,211) (211,962) (431,944) (576,402) (1,152,540) (2,372,849) (545,675) (74,100) (62,224) (43,300) (725,299) (304,895) (95,386) (118,768) 418,018 (21,954) 451,816 (591,713) (693,317) 113,702 (719,512) 45,189 (378,249) (66,282) (24,332) (423,674) 103,978 (263,838) (3,689) 1,009,437 1,427,455 1,405,413 1,405,404 1,405,499 712,182 1,405,501 825,885 871,074 492,825 426,543 685,989 402,211 506,189 242,352 1,427,455 1,405,501 1,857,229 813,691 712,182 825,885 685,989 871,074 492,825 426,543 402,211 262,316 506,189 242,352 238,663 2004 E 2006 E 2005 E

(19)

Financial Reports

Tecnologico de Monterrey

Burkenroad Latin

America (Mexico)

The Latin America Burkenroad Reports are financial analysis of companies

listed in the Mexican Stock Exchange, and capital budgeting of medium

and small companies. They are elaborated by students of the Bachelor of

Financial Management and Accounting & Finance, under the supervision

of professors from the Accounting and Finance Department of ITESM,

Monterrey Campus.

The ITESM, Instituto de Estudios Superiores de Administración de Venezuela

(IESA), and Universidad de los Andes de Colombia, along with Tulane

University, carry out the Latin America Burkenroad Program. This project

is granted by the Multilateral Investment Fund of the Interamerican

Development Bank. This program enriches human capital by providing

training in financial analysis techniques, and also intends to facilitate access

of companies to financing sources by providing financial information to

investors and financial institutions.

The reports prepared by this program, evaluate financial conditions and

investment opportunities in Latin American companies. Financial reports

of listed companies are distributed to national and foreign investors through

publications and financial information systems such as Infosel Financiero

and Finsat, among others. Investment capital budgeting reports, are

distributed only to beneficiary companies for future private presentations

to financial institutions or potential investors. Investment plans and financial

situation, of the analyzed companies are presented to the financial community

in an Annual Meeting.

For more information about the Burkenroad Latin America Program please

visit the following websites:

http://burkenroad.mty.itesm.mx

http://mx.invertia.com/canales/canal.asp?idcanal=505

http://www.finsat.com.mx/Finsat/pages/Static.asp?Show=CRBR

María Concepción del Alto

mdelalto@itesm.mx

Research Director

Burkenroad Reports - México

School of Business

ITESM,Campus Monterrey

Tel and Fax: +52 (81) 83-28-41-96

Moisés Benavides Elizondo

moises.benavides@itesm.mx

Technical Coordinator

Burkenroad Latin America Program

School of Business

ITESM,Campus Monterrey

Tel and Fax: +52 (81) 83-28-41-96

Burkenroad Reports is produced by a select group of students at ITESM. This report is based on

information available to the public and does not purport to be a complete statement of all data

relevant to the securities mentioned and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Furthermore, this

report is not an offer to buy or sell a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned.

Analysts:

Advisors:

Eny García

Aurelio Aguilar

Ma. Concepción del Alto

Bárbara de la Garza

Jordán Rodríguez

Miguel Moreno Tripp

Oliver Fernández

Carlos Morán

Roberto Martínez

All amounts are as of the date of the report as reported by BMV, and Infosel Inversionista. *EBITDA is based on operating income plus depreciation and amortization, divided by the number of shares outstanding.

** Equity Market Capitalization is based on market price for the number of shares outstanding.

All amounts in Mexican pesos .

*** Enterprise value is based on market capitalization adjusted for long-term debt, minority interest, cash, and short-term investments.

^Performance is based on ending prices and dividends for the November 2003 to November 2004 period.

Valuation

2003A

2004E

2005E

2006E

EPS

$0.75

$1.16

$2.77

$2.30

P / E

29.03x

18.82x

7.90x

9.50x

EBITDA*

$4.56

$7.23

$9.11

$7.12

P / EBITDA

4.80x

3.03x

2.40x

3.07x

Market Capitalization

Stock Data

Shares Outstanding (000)

286,129

52-Week Range:

$17.56 - $22.31

Market Cap (M)

$5,293

12-Mo. Stock Performance: ^

5.956%

Enterprise Value (M)**

$7,033

Dividend declared on 06/05/04

$0.60

6-Mo. Avg. Daily Volume:

86,042

Book Value Per Share

$18.40

Beta

0.87

November 1, 2004

GRUPO INDUSTRIAL SALTILLO, S.A. de C.V.

GISSA*/BMV

CONTINUING COVERAGE: GISSA faces economic

challenges by maintaining and adapting strategies.

Investment Recommendation: MARKET OUTPERFORM

Price: $18.40

IPC: 12,076.08

IMC30: 232.75

DJIA: 10,522.23

• Castech, a company of GISSA was awarded as Supplier of the Year 2003 by General

Motors for its excellent performance, quality, service, technology, and price.

• The automotive metal mechanical division launched operations of an iron plant,

CIMETECH, located in Irapuato, Guanajuato, with a US$ 51 million investment, increasing

production volume at 57% compared to 2003.

• VITROMEX, a ceramic tiles plant, started operations in Chihuahua. This investment

of US$ 42 million will allow to meet actual demand and increase production capacity

by 20%.

• GISSA will start important agreements with Toyota and Nissan in 2005.

• GISSA issued Ps$ 2,160 million graded “mxAA” (national scale).

• It is recognized as one of the top 20 most ethical companies in Latin America

• Accumulated investments by the end of the third quarter amounted to US$ 58 million

in maintenance and construction of currently operating new plants.

References

Related documents

Conversely, 43.7% of all respondents who misused prescription drugs met criteria for alcohol dependence, problem gambling, and (or) had used illicit drugs in the past year..

To further elucidate the po- tential role of IL-31 in allergic rhinitis, we studied the release of IL-31 and IL-13 into nasal secretions and serum after unilateral allergen challenge

19% serve a county. Fourteen per cent of the centers provide service for adjoining states in addition to the states in which they are located; usually these adjoining states have

engineer can concentrate well on requirement gathering process. The collected requirement would help to make the fulfilled software. If any mismatch happened is

The degree of resistance exhibited after 1, 10 and 20 subcultures in broth in the absence of strepto- mycin was tested by comparing the number of colonies which grew from the

Eftekhari, On Some Iterative Methods with Memory and High Efficiency Index for Solv- ing Nonlinear Equations, International Journal of Differential Equations, vol. Eftekhari,

Likewise, if adrenergic blocking agents as adrenolytic drugs are given to rats so, locomotor activity of rats will decrease.In the present study,results