7LPH +HDGZD\ 0RGHOOLQJ RI 0RWRUF\FOH-'RPLQDWHG 7UDIILF WR $QDO\VH 7UDIILF
6DIHW\ 3HUIRUPDQFH DQG 5RDG /LQN &DSDFLW\ RI 6LQJOH &DUULDJHZD\V
' 0 3UL\DQWKD :HGDJDPD
'HSDUWPHQW RI &LYLO (QJLQHHULQJ )DFXOW\ RI (QJLQHHULQJ 8GD\DQD 8QLYHUVLW\ %XNLW -LPEDUDQ ± %DOL (-PDLO SUL\DQWKD ZHGDJDPD#JPDLO FRP
Jurnal Teoretis dan Terapan Bidang Rekayasa Sipil Jurnal Teoretis dan Terapan Bidang Rekayasa Sipil
$EVWUDFW
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
YHKLFOHV KRXU YHKLFOHV KRXU DQG YHKLFOHV KRXU UHVSHFWLYHO\
.H\ZRUGV 7LPH KHDGZD\ PRWRUF\FOH-GRPLQDWHG WUDIILF WUDIILF VDIHW\ URDG FDSDFLW\ $EVWUDN
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
.DWD-NDWD .XQFL 7LPH KHDGZD\ ODOX OLQWDV \DQJ GLGRPLQDVL VHSHGD PRWRU NHVHODPDWDQ ODOX OLQWDV NDSDVLWDV
MDODQ
,QWURGXFWLRQ
0RVW RI WUDIILF WKHRULHV XVHG LQ GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV LQFOXGLQJ ,QGRQHVLD DUH DGRSWHG IURP GHYHORSHG FRXQWULHV LQFOXGLQJ WKH 86$ WKH 8. DQG $XVWUDOLD 0LQK HW DO 7KHVH WKHRULHV DUH EDVHG RQ KRPRJHQHRXV WUDIILF GRPLQDWHG E\ OLJKW YHKLFOHV ,Q DGGLWLRQ ,QGRQHVLDQ +LJKZD\ &DSDFLW\ 0DQXDO XVHV OLJKW YHKLFOHV DV VWDQGDUGV UHIHUHQFH WR GHWHUPLQH WKH URDG FDSDFLW\ 'HSDUWPHQW RI 3XEOLF :RUNV
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
PLQLPXP YDOXH DQG GLVWULEXWLRQ RI WLPH KHDGZD\V 7LZDUL ,Q DGGLWLRQ WUDIILF YROXPHV DQG URDG FDSDFLW\ DUH H[DPLQHG RQ WKH DVVXPSWLRQ WKDW YHKLFOHV PRYHG DQG VWRSSHG FRQVLVWHQWO\ RQ URDG ODQHV ODQH GLVFLSOLQH )RU PL[HG WUDIILF KRZHYHU GHWHUPLQLQJ WKH LGHDO FDSDFLW\ EDVHG RQ ODQH GLVFLSOLQH PD\ QRW EH YHU\ SUHFLVH 7LZDUL
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¶ EHKDYLRXUV WR NHHS VDIH UHFRPPHQGHG GLVWDQFHV WR WKH
YHKLFOHV LQ IURQW 7KLV VWXG\ WKHUHIRUH DLPV WR GHYHORS WLPH KHDGZD\ GLVWULEXWLRQ PRGHOV RI PRWRUF\FOH-GRPLQDWHG WUDIILF WR DQDO\VH WUDIILF VDIHW\ SHUIRUPDQFH DQG URDG OLQN FDSDFLW\ RI VLQJOH FDUULDJHZD\V LQ 'HQSDVDU %DOL
/LWHUDWXUH 5HYLHZ
7LPH KHDGZD\ GLVWULEXWLRQ PRGHOV
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
$QRWKHU SDVW VWXG\ FRQGXFWHG RQ IUHHZD\V LQ 5L\DGK VKRZLQJ WKDW JDPPD DQG VKLIWHG H[SRQHQWLDO GLVWULEXWLRQV ILWWHG WR PRGHO WLPH KHDGZD\ IRU ORZ DQG PHGLXP WUDIILF IORZ UHVSHFWLYHO\ ZKLOH (UODQJ GLVWULEXWLRQ ILWWHG WR PRGHO KLJK WUDIILF IORZV $O-*KDPGL ,Q DGGLWLRQ JDPPD GLVWULEXWLRQV ILWWHG WR PRGHO WUDIILF IORZV LQ EHWZHHQ DQG YHKLFOHV KRXU RQ DUWHULDO URDGV 7KH QRQ-QRUPDO GLVWULEXWLRQV FRQVLGHUHG LQ WKLV VWXG\ DUH
D 3HDUVRQ ,,, GLVWULEXWLRQ PRGHO
3HDUVRQ ,,, GLVWULEXWLRQ PRGHO RIWHQ FDOOHG *DPPD GLVWULEXWLRQ ZLWK WKUHH SDUDPHWHUV LV GHWHUPLQHG DV IROORZV /XWWLQHQ
ZKHUH
LV D *DPPD IXQFWLRQ DQG D JHQHUDOL]DWLRQ RI WKH IDFWRULDO IXQFWLRQ
7KH GLVWULEXWLRQ IXQFWLRQ FRQVLVWV ORFDWLRQ VFDOH DQG VKDSH SDUDPHWHUV
E /RJQRUPDO GLVWULEXWLRQ PRGHO
/RJQRUPDO GLVWULEXWLRQ PRGHO LV GHWHUPLQHG E\ 3HDUVRQ 7\SH ,,, GHQVLW\ IXQFWLRQ DQG H[SUHVVHG DV IROORZV
ZKHUH
/RJQRUPDO ZLWK SDUDPHWHUV 3 LV HTXDO WR D ORJQRUPDO GLVWULEXWLRQ RI WZR SDUDPHWHUV H[FHSW WKDW WKH ORZHU OLPLW RI WKH DGGLWLRQDO SDUDPHWHU LV QRW HTXDO WR ]HUR
ZKHUH
F :HLEXOO GLVWULEXWLRQ PRGHO ZLWK SDUDPHWHUV
3
7KH SUREDELOLW\ GHQVLW\ IXQFWLRQ SGI DQG WKH FXPXODWLYH GLVWULEXWLRQ IXQFWLRQ FGI RI D :HLEXOO UDQGRP YDULDEOH DUH H[SUHVVHG DV IROORZV 7HLPRXUL DQG *XSWD $QG t e t t f E D D
D
W
E
D
E
W
*( ) ) ( ) , , | ( 1 dy e y x x y . ) ( 0 1 ³ f *)
W
) ED
)
°¿ ° ¾ ½ °¯ ° ® -¸¸ ¹ · ¨¨ © § 2 ( ) log( 2 1 . ) 2 )( )( ( 1 ) ( S X X e S X X f S ) ( Xf 3UREDELOLW\ RI ORJQRUPDO GLVWULEXWLRQ
IRU WKH REVHUYHG YDOXH RI ; ; 2EVHUYHG YDOXHV
X 7KH ORJDULWKPLF DYHUDJH RI ; XVXDOO\
GHWHUPLQHG ZLWK LWV JHRPHWULF YDOXH 6 6WDQGDUG GHYLDWLRQ RI ORJDULWKPLF
YDOXH RI ; ¸ ¹ · ¨ © § n n X e X X f V P E S E ) ln( 2 1 . 2 ) ln( 1 ) ( ) ( X
f 3UREDELOLW\ RI ORJQRUPDO GLVWULEXWLRQ IRU WKH REVHUYHG YDOXH RI ;
; &RQWLQXRXV UDQGRP YDULDEOH E
X /RZHU OLPLW SDUDPHWHU
D E P D E P E D ¨¨©§ ¸¸¹· ¸¸ ¹ · ¨¨ © § x e x x fx( ) . 1 D E P ¸¸ ¹ · ¨¨ © §x e x Fx( ) 1
7KHVH HTXDWLRQV VKRXOG VDWLVI\ [ ! .! DQG ! 7KH WKUHH SDUDPHWHUV FRQVLVW RI VKDSH . VFDOH DQG ORFDWLRQ SDUDPHWHUV 7KH VWDJHV WR YDOLGDWH WLPH KHDGZD\ GLVWULEXWLRQ PRGHO DUH DV IROORZV
D 7KH QXPEHU RI WUDIILF GDWD FROOHFWHG VKRXOG EH VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VXIILFLHQW IURP HDFK ORFDWLRQ ZKLOH WKH PLQLPXP LQFUHDVLQJ WUDIILF LV EHWZHHQ DQG YHKLFOHV SHU KRXU
E $V WKH VXEVWLWXWH RI .ROPRJRURY-6PLUQRY $QGHUVRQ-'DUOLQJ DQG RWKHU QRQ-SDUDPHWULF PRGHOV FKL-VTXDUH WHVW PHWKRG DOWHUQDWLYHO\ FDQ EH HPSOR\HG WR WHVW VWDWLVWLFDO GLVWULEXWLRQ PRGHOV 7KH FKL-VTXDUH WHVW LV H[SUHVVHG DV IROORZV
ZKHUH
&KL-VTXDUH N PHWKRG LV XVHG WR GHWHUPLQH WKH VXLWDELOLW\ EHWZHHQ WKH WKHRUHWLFDO W DQG HPSLULFDO REVHUYHG R GDWD 7HVWV ZHUH FDUULHG RXW E\ FRQVWUXFWLQJ K\SRWKHVHV DV IROORZV
5RDG FDSDFLW\
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
SHUFHQWDJH YDOXH EHORZ D VHW RI GDWD )RU H[DPSOH WKH WK
SHUFHQWLOH LV D YDOXH RU VFRUH WKDW LV EHORZ RI REVHUYHG GDWD
&DVH 6WXG\ $UHD DQG 'DWD 'HVFULSWLRQV
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
0D\ IURP WR KRXUV $ YHKLFOH
ZLGWK WKDW LV RYHU FURVVLQJ D SDUWLFXODU ODQH LV LQFOXGHG LQ WKDW ODQH DQG QRW XVHG LQ WKH RWKHU ODQH 7KH K\SRWKHVHV ZHUH FRQVWUXFWHG WR H[SUHVV WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ PRGHOV DQG H[DPLQHG ZLWK FKL-VTXDUH PHWKRG 7LPH KHDGZD\ GLVWULEXWLRQ PRGHO DUH VXEVHTXHQWO\ GHYHORSHG WR GHWHUPLQH WKH URDG FDSDFLW\ 7LPH KHDGZD\ GDWD LV JURXSHG LQWR PLQXWHV LQWHUYDO $W HDFK LQWHUYDO WKH GDWD LV VHSDUDWHG DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH DUULYDO RI SDLU RI YHKLFOHV LQFOXGLQJ
D SDLUV RI PRWRUF\FOHV 0&V DQG OLJKW YHKLFOHV /9V E SDLUV RI OLJKW YHKLFOHV /9V DQG PRWRUF\FOHV 0&V F SDLUV RI PRWRUF\FOHV 0&V DQG PRWRUF\FOHV 0&V G SDLUV RI KHDY\ YHKLFOHV +9V DQG OLJKW YHKLFOHV
/9V
H SDLUV RI OLJKW YHKLFOHV /9V DQG KHDY\ YHKLFOHV +9V
I SDLUV RI KHDY\ YHKLFOHV +9V DQG KHDY\ YHKLFOHV +9V DQG
J SDLUV RI OLJKW YHKLFOHV /9V DQG OLJKW YHKLFOHV /9V
6DPSOHV XVHG WR FDOFXODWH WLPH KHDGZD\ ZHUH H[DPLQHG XVLQJ FULWHULD DV IROORZV 6XNRZDWL
D 3DLU RI YHKLFOHV VKRXOG EH XQREVWUXFWHG E\ DQRWKHU YHKLFOH ZKHQ WKH IURQW ZKHHO SDVVHV WKH REVHUYDWLRQ SRLQW
E 7KH UHFRUGHG WLPH KHDGZD\ LV EDVHG RQ VXFFHVVLYH SDLUV RI YHKLFOHV 7UDYHO WLPH UHFRUGHG LV IRU WKH OHDGLQJ YHKLFOH 7DEOH 5RDG VHJPHQW ORFDWLRQV
¦
n i t t o count f f f 1 2 2 ( ) F IR 2EVHUYHG GDWD IW 7KHRUHWLFDO GDWD 2 F &KL-VTXDUH FRXQW YDOXHVD
+R K\SRWKHVLV QXOO IW IRE
+D K\SRWKHVLV DOWHUQDWLYH IWz
IRF
7KH K\SRWKHVLV LV DFFHSWHG LI WKH NFRXQW NWDEOHG
7KH K\SRWKHVLV LV UHMHFWHG LI WKH NFRXQW! NWDEOH KP 6 KS Q VHFRQG YHKLFOH T Q 7 KP YHKLFOH VHFRQG T KP YHKLFOHV KRXU KS 7LPH KHDGZD\ VHFRQG YHKLFOH T &DSDFLW\ YHKLFOHV KRXUKP $YHUDJH WLPH KHDGZD\ VHFRQG YHKLFOH Q $OO YHKLFOHV SDVVLQJ D FHUWDLQ SRLQW GXULQJ
7 SHULRG -O +D\DP :XUXN -O +DQJ 7XDK -O 3DGPD P WR WKH VRXWK RI SHWURO VWDWLRQ DQG P WR WKH QRUWK RI 5HQRQ URXQGDERXW P WR WKH ZHVW RI VLJQDOLVHG MXQFWLRQ RI -O +DQJ 7XDK--O 6HGDS 0DODP 6LWXDWHG LQ %DQMDU 6DED WKH QRUWK VLGH RI WKH URDG LV ULFH ILHOGV
F 7KH PD[LPXP WUDIILF YROXPH IRU ILIWHHQ PLQXWHV LQWHUYDO LV FDOFXODWHG DQG XVHG WR GHWHUPLQH WLPH KHDGZD\ GLVWULEXWLRQ PRGHO DQG
G 7UDYHO WLPH IRU RYHUWDNLQJ YHKLFOH RQ WKH REVHUYDWLRQ SRLQW LV QRW UHFRUGHG
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
7DEOH VKRZV DYHUDJH WLPH KHDGZD\V GDWD IRU SDLUV RI GLIIHUHQW YHKLFOH W\SHV ,Q WKHRU\ E\ XVLQJ D VWDQGDUG RI GULYLQJ VNLOOV WUDLQLQJ SURJUDP WZR VHFRQGV LV WKH PLQLPXP VDIH YDOXH IRU WLPH KHDGZD\ RU VDIH IROORZLQJ EHWZHHQ D SDLU RI YHKLFOHV $EWDKL
,QWHUHVWLQJO\ PRVW SDLUV RI 0&-+9 /9-+9 DQG +9-+9 IRU DOO URDG VHJPHQWV NHSW WKHLU WLPH KHDGZD\V PRUH WKDQ WZR VHFRQGV 7KLV JLYHV DQ
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
0RGHO 'HYHORSPHQW
&KL 6TXDUH PHWKRG LV XVHG WR WHVW WKH QRUPDOLW\ RI WKH HPSLULFDO GDWD GLVWULEXWLRQV 7DEOH VKRZV WKDW WLPH KHDGZD\ GLVWULEXWLRQV IRU WKHVH WKUHH URDG VHJPHQWV GR QRW IROORZ QRUPDO GLVWULEXWLRQ VDPSOH! WDEOH $V WKH UHVXOWV QRQ-QRUPDO GLVWULEXWLRQV DUH H[DPLQHG DFFRUGLQJO\
7KH PRGHOV DUH FRQVHTXHQWO\ FDOLEUDWHG ZLWK FKL-VTXDUH WHVW SURGXFLQJ WKH VXLWDELOLW\ RI QRQ-QRUPDO GLVWULEXWLRQ ZKLFK LQGLFDWHG ZLWK JRRGQHVV RI ILW DV VKRZQ LQ 7DEOH 7KH DSSURSULDWH GLVWULEXWLRQ LV VHOHFWHG ZLWK WKH PLQLPXP YDOXHV
7DEOH 7UDIILF YROXPH DQG VSHHG
1R 5RDG
/LQNV 3HDN +RXU V
7UDIILF )ORZ YHKLFOHV KRXU 6SDFH 0HDQ 6SHHG
0& /9 +9 0& /9 +9 -O +DQJ 7XDK 0RUQLQJ -(YHQLQJ --O +D\DP :XUXN 0RUQLQJ -(YHQLQJ --O 3DGPD 0RUQLQJ -(YHQLQJ -7DEOH 7LPH KHDGZD\ GDWD 1R 5RDG /LQNV 3HDN +RXU $YHUDJH 7LPH +HDGZD\ VHF $YHUDJH 7LPH +HDGZD\ VHF $YHUDJH 7LPH +HDGZD\ VHF 0&-0& 0&-/9 0&-+9 /9-0& /9-/9 /9-+9 +9-0& +9-/9 +9-+9 -O +DQJ 7XDK 0RUQLQJ ± (YHQLQJ ± -O +D\DP :XUXN 0RUQLQJ ± 1 $ (YHQLQJ ± -O 3DGPD 0RUQLQJ ± (YHQLQJ ± :KHUH
0& 0RWRUF\FOH /9 /LJKW YHKLFOH +9 +HDY\ YHKLFOH :KHUH
0& 0RWRUF\FOH /9 /LJKW YHKLFOH +9 +HDY\ YHKLFOH
2
F F2
2
)LJXUH )UHTXHQFLHV RI HPSLULFDO DQG WKHRUHWLFDO GDWD RQ -O +DQJ 7XDK
7DEOH 1RUPDO GLVWUEXWLRQ WHVW RI HPSLULFDO GDWD
5RDG /LQNV 3HDN +RXUV VDPSOH N- 'HVFULSWLRQ
-O +DQJ 7XDK
0RUQLQJ N 1RQ QRUPDO GDWD GLVWULEXWLRQ
(YHQLQJ N 1RQ QRUPDO GDWD GLVWULEXWLRQ
-O +D\DP :XUXN
0RUQLQJ N 1RQ QRUPDO GDWD GLVWULEXWLRQ
(YHQLQJ N 1RQ QRUPDO GDWD GLVWULEXWLRQ
-O 3DGPD
0RUQLQJ N 1RQ QRUPDO GDWD GLVWULEXWLRQ
(YHQLQJ N 1RQ QRUPDO GDWD GLVWULEXWLRQ
2
F F2
7DEOH *RRGQHVV RI ILW IRU QRQ-QRUPDO GLVWULEXWLRQV
5RDG /LQNV 3HDN +RXUV 'LVWULEXWLRQ 6WDWLVWLF 2
F
'HVFULSWLRQV -O +DQJ 7XDK 0RUQLQJ 3HDUVRQ ,,, /RJQRUPDO %HVW )LW :HLEXOO 3 -O +DQJ 7XDK (YHQLQJ 3HDUVRQ ,,, /RJQRUPDO :HLEXOO 3 %HVW )LW -O +D\DP :XUXN 0RUQLQJ 3HDUVRQ ,,, /RJQRUPDO %HVW )LW :HLEXOO 3 -O +D\DP :XUXN (YHQLQJ 3HDUVRQ ,,, %HVW )LW /RJQRUPDO :HLEXOO 3 -O 3DGPD 0RUQLQJ 3HDUVRQ ,,, /RJQRUPDO 3 %HVW )LW :HLEXOO 3 -O 3DGPD (YHQLQJ 3HDUVRQ ,,, /RJQRUPDO 3 :HLEXOO 3 %HVW )LW:KHUH N QXPEHU RI FODVV LQWHUYDO
)LJXUH )UHTXHQFLHV RI HPSLULFDO DQG WKHRUHWLFDO
%DVHG RQ 7DEOH WKH EHVW VWDWLVWLFDO GLVWULEXWLRQV WR PRGHO WLPH KHDGZD\V YDULHG DPRQJ WKHVH WKUHH URDG VHJPHQWV /RJQRUPDO GLVWULEXWLRQ PRGHOV DUH EHVW ILW WR PRGHO WLPH KHDGZD\V IRU PRUQLQJ SHDN KRXUV RQ WKHVH WKUHH URDG VHJPHQWV 0HDQZKLOH :HLEXOO 3 GLVWULEXWLRQ PRGHOV DUH EHVW ILW WR PRGHO WLPH KHDGZD\V IRU HYHQLQJ SHDN KRXUV RQ -O +DQJ 7XDK DQG -O 3DGPD 7R PRGHO WLPH KHDGZD\V IRU HYHQLQJ SHDN KRXUV RQ -O +D\DP :XUXN KRZHYHU LV EHVW ILWWHG ZLWK 3HDUVRQ ,,, GLVWULEXWLRQ
)LJXUH )UHTXHQFLHV RI HPSULFDO DQG WKHRUHWLFDO
GDWD RQ -O 3DGPD
7DEOH )UHTXHQFLHV RI HPSLULFDO DQG WKHRUHWLFDO GDWD
-O +DQJ 7XDK 0RUQLQJ 3HDN +RXU ,QWHUYDO VHFRQGV - - - (PSLULFDO 7KHRUHWLFDO -O +DQJ 7XDK (YHQLQJ 3HDN +RXU ,QWHUYDO VHFRQGV - - - (PSLULFDO 7KHRUHWLFDO
-O +D\DP :XUXN 0RUQLQJ 3HDN +RXU
,QWHUYDO
VHFRQGV - - -
(PSLULFDO
7KHRUHWLFDO
-O +D\DP :XUXN (YHQLQJ 3HDN +RXU
,QWHUYDO VHFRQGV - - - (PSLULFDO 7KHRUHWLFDO -O 3DGPD 0RUQLQJ 3HDN +RXU ,QWHUYDO VHFRQGV - - - -(PSLULFDO 7KHRUHWLFDO -O 3DGPD (YHQLQJ 3HDN +RXU ,QWHUYDO VHFRQGV - - - -(PSLULFDO 7KHRUHWLFDO )LJXUH 3UREDELOLW\ 'HQVLW\ )XQFWLRQ 3') DW PRUQLQJ SHDN KRXUV )LJXUH 3UREDELOLW\ 'HQVLW\ )XQFWLRQ 3') DW HYHQLQJ SHDN KRXUV
)LJXUH &XPXODWLYH 'HQVLW\ )XQFWLRQ &') DW PRUQLQJ SHDN KRXUV
)LJXUH &XPXODWLYH 'HQVLW\ )XQFWLRQ &') DW HYHQLQJ SHDN KRXUV
)LJXUHV DQG DQG 7DEOH VKRZ WKH PRGHOOHG WKHRUHWLFDO DQG WKH REVHUYHG HPSLULFDO IUHTXHQFLHV RI WLPH KHDGZD\ 7KH\ DUH GHSLFWHG DFFRUGLQJ WR EHVW ILW PRGHOV RQ 7DEOH ,W FDQ EH VHHQ WKDW JUDSKLFDOO\ QR VLJQLILFDQW WLPH KHDGZD\ IUHTXHQF\ GLIIHUHQFHV IRXQG RQ WKH WZR PRGHOV )LJXUHV DQG VKRZ WKDW WKH PD[LPXP WLPH KHDGZD\ IRU PRUQLQJ DQG HYHQLQJ SHDN KRXUV DUH DERXW VHFRQGV ZLWK WKH SHUFHQWDJH RI 7KHVH ERWK RFFXUUHG RQ -O +D\DP :XUXN
)LJXUH VKRZV WKDW DERXW RI PRWRULVWV DW
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
5RDG &DSDFLW\ 'HWHUPLQDWLRQ
5RDG FDSDFLW\ LV GHWHUPLQHG E\ WKHRUHWLFDO GLVWULEXWLRQ PRGHO WKDW EHVW ILWWHG WR FKL-VTXDUH VWDWLVWLFDO WHVW ,Q RUGHU WR DQDO\VH URDG FDSDFLW\ WKH FHQWUDO YDOXHV RI GHVFULSWLYH VWDWLVWLFV LQYROYLQJ PHDQ PHGLDQ PRGH DQG
WK
SHUFHQWLOH DUH VKRZQ LQ 7DEOH )RU H[DPSOH DQ HPSLULFDO GDWD ZLWK D YDOXH RI WKSHUFHQWLOH LV HTXDO WR LQGLFDWLQJ WKDW RI WLPH KHDGZD\ GDWD DUH OHVV WKDQ VHFRQGV ,Q RUGHU WR GHWHUPLQH URDG FDSDFLWLHV HTXDWLRQV DQG DUH HPSOR\HG WR FDOFXODWH WKH SDUDPHWHUV RI WKH FHQWUDO YDOXHV RI WLPH KHDGZD\V VKRZQ LQ 7DEOH
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
7DEOH &HQWUDO YDOXHV RI WLPH KHDGZD\V
5RDG /LQN
(PSLULFDO 'DWD
0RUQLQJ 3HDN +RXU (YHQLQJ 3HDN +RXU
0HDQ 0HGLDQ 0RGH WKSHUFHQWLOH 0HDQ 0HGLDQ 0RGH WKSHUFHQWLOH -O +D\DP :XUXN -O +DQJ 7XDK -O 3DGPD 5RDG /LQN 7KHRUHWLFDO 'DWD
0RUQLQJ 3HDN +RXU (YHQLQJ 3HDN +RXU
0HDQ 0HGLDQ 0RGH WKSHUFHQWLOH 0HDQ 0HGLDQ 0RGH WKSHUFHQWLOH
-O +D\DP :XUXN -O +DQJ 7XDK
-O 3DGPD
7DEOH 5RDG OLQN FDSDFLW\ YHKLFOHV KRXU
(PSLULFDO &DSDFLW\
5RDG /LQN 0RUQLQJ 3HDN +RXU (YHQLQJ 3HDN +RXU
0HDQ 0HGLDQ 0RGH WKSHUFHQWLOH 0HDQ 0HGLDQ 0RGH WKSHUFHQWLOH -O +D\DP :XUXN -O +DQJ 7XDK -O 3DGPD 5RDG /LQN 7KHRUHWLFDO &DSDFLW\
0RUQLQJ 3HDN +RXU (YHQLQJ 3HDN +RXU
0HDQ 0HGLDQ 0RGH WKSHUFHQWLOH 0HDQ 0HGLDQ 0RGH WKSHUFHQWLOH
-O +D\DP :XUXN -O +DQJ 7XDK
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
&RQFOXVLRQV
%DVHG RQ WKH DQDO\VLV RI WLPH KHDGZD\ GDWD VKRZ WKDW EHWZHHQ - RI PRWRULVWV LQ 'HQSDVDU GXULQJ PRUQLQJ DQG HYHQLQJ SHDN KRXUV SDLG OHVV DWWHQWLRQ WR WKH VDIH GLVWDQFH ZLWK WKH YHKLFOHV LQ IURQW 3DUWLHV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK URDG DQG WUDIILF VDIHW\ WKHUHIRUH VKRXOG PLQLPLVH WKLV NLQG RI EHKDYLRXUV RQ WKH URDG WR UHGXFH SUREDELOLW\ LQYROYHG LQ WUDIILF DFFLGHQWV
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
7KH URDG FDSDFLWLHV YHKLFOHV KRXU IRU PRWRUF\FOH-GRPLQDWHG WUDIILF YDULHG DV WKH\ DUH LQIOXHQFHG E\ WKH PRWRULVWV¶ EHKDYLRXU LQ NHHSLQJ VDIH GLVWDQFH ZLWK WKH YHKLFOHV LQ IURQW 7KHRUHWLFDO URDG FDSDFLWLHV IRU -O +D\DP :XUXN -O +DQJ 7XDK DQG -O 3DGPD DUH YHKLFOHV KRXU YHKLFOHV KRXU
YHKLFOHV KRXU DQG YHKLFOHV KRXU UHVSHFWLYHO\
)XUWKHU WLPH KHDGZD\ VWXGLHV QHHG WR EH FDUULHG RXW RQ RWKHU W\SHV RI URDG IRU LQVWDQFH RQ GRXEOH FDUULDJHZD\V DQG ERWK DW VLJQDOLVHG DQG XQVLJQDOLVHG MXQFWLRQV ,Q DGGLWLRQ WKH VDPSOH VL]H QHHGV WR EH LQFUHDVHG LQYROYLQJ WUDIILF GXULQJ WKH ZHHNHQG LQ SDUWLFXODU LQ WRXULVWV DUHD LQ %DOL VR WKDW WKH FRPSOHWH SLFWXUHV RI PL[HG WUDIILF SUHGRPLQDQWO\ PRWRUF\FOHV FDSDFLWLHV DUH ODUJHO\ FDSWXUHG
5HIHUHQFHV
$EWDKL 6 0 7DPDQQDHL 0 DQG +DJKVKHQDVK +
$QDO\VLV DQG 0RGHOLQJ 7LPH +HDGZD\ 'LVWULEXWLRQ XQGHU +HDY\ 7UDIILF )ORZ
&RQGLWLRQV LQ WKH 8UEDQ +LJKZD\V &DVH RI ,VIDKDQ 7UDQVSRUW 9RO 1R SS -$O-*KDPGL $ 6 $QDO\VLV RI 7LPH +HDGZD\V
RQ 8UEDQ 5RDGV &DVH 6WXG\ IURP 5L\DGK
-RXUQDO RI 7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ (QJLQHHULQJ 9RO
1R SS
-&HQWUDO 6WDWLVWLFV $JHQF\ RI %DOL 3URYLQFH %DOL LQ )LJXUHV 'HQSDVDU
'HSDUWPHQW RI 3XEOLF :RUNV ,QGRQHVLDQ +LJKZD\ &DSDFLW\ 0DQXDO 0.-, LQ ,QGRQHVLDQ
-DNDUWD
-DQJD - 3DUN & .LP % DQG &KRL 1 0RGHOLQJ RI 7LPH +HDGZD\ 'LVWULEXWLRQ RQ 6XEXUEDQ $UWHULDO &DVH 6WXG\ IURP 6RXWK .RUHD 3URFHGLD 6RFLDO DQG %HKDYLRUDO 6FLHQFHV 9RO SS ±
/XWWLQHQ 5 7 6WDWLVWLFDO $QDO\VLV RI 9HKLFOH 7LPH +HDGZD\V +HOVLQNL 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 7HFKQRORJ\ 7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ (QJLQHHULQJ 3XEOLFDWLRQ 2WDQLHPL
0LQK & & 6DQR . DQG 0DWVXPRWR 6 7KH 6SHHG )ORZ DQG +HDGZD\ $QDO\VHV RI 0RWRUF\FOH 7UDIILF -RXUQDO RI WKH (DVWHUQ $VLD
6RFLHW\ IRU 7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ 6WXGLHV 9RO SS ±
0RULGSRXU 6 (YDOXDWLQJ WKH 7LPH +HDGZD\ 'LVWULEXWLRQV LQ &RQJHVWHG +LJKZD\V -RXUQDO
RI 7UDIILF DQG /RJLVWLFV (QJLQHHULQJ 9RO
1R SS
-5RVVL 5 *DVWDOGL 0 DQG 3DVFXFFL ) *DPPD-*40 7LPH +HDGZD\ 0RGHO (QGRJHQRXV (IIHFWV LQ 5XUDO /DQH 7ZR-:D\ 5RDGV 3URFHGLD - 6RFLDO DQG %HKDYLRUDO
6FLHQFHV 9RO SS ±
6XNRZDWL ' * 7KH &KDUDFWHULVWLFV RI 9HKLFOH 7LPH +HDGZD\ RQ 7ROO DQG 1RQ 7ROO 5RDGV &DVH 6WXG\ 7ROO 5RDG 6HFWLRQ % 6HPDUDQJ DQG 'HPDN 5LQJ 5RDG LQ ,QGRQHVLDQ 0(QJ
7KHVLV 3RVWJUDGXDWH 3URJUDPPH LQ &LYLO (QJLQHHULQJ 'LSRQHJRUR 8QLYHUVLW\ 6HPDUDQJ 7HLPRXUL 0 DQG *XSWD $ . 2Q WKH
7KUHH-3DUDPHWHU :HLEXOO 'LVWULEXWLRQ 6KDSH 3DUDPHWHU (VWLPDWLRQ -RXUQDO RI 'DWD 6FLHQFH
9RO SS
-7LZDUL * 7UDIILF )ORZ DQG 6DIHW\ 1HHG IRU 1HZ 0RGHOV IRU +HWHURJHQHRXV 7UDIILF ,QMXU\
