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(1)

Financiamiento para la

transicion a una

economia verde

Ensenanzas de Rio + 20 para Mexico

Noviembre 16 2012

Walter Vergara

Chief

Climate Change and Sustainability Division

Inter-American Development Bank

(2)

The costs of climate destabilization in the region

Moving ahead, emblematic investments and

future needs

The challenge to move to a low carbon economy

IDB’s plan of action

Outline

(3)

• Major physical impacts

(destabilization

of

hydrology;

glacier retreat; sea level rise;

increase in extreme weather

events; reduction of agricultural

yields; collapse of ecosystems;

increased exposure to disease)

• Large

economic

consequences (IDB estimate:

$80-$105 billion/year by 2050)

(4)

• But, while not addressing

all impacts, adaptation is

cost effective

($1 in adaptation prevents

up

to

$4

in

economic

consequences)

(5)

• What needs to be done?

– Protect water supply and quality

– Make coastal zone management climate resilient

– Adapt agriculture

– Deploy ecosystem based adaptation

(6)

The region has a modest

contribution to the current

GHG global budget (11% of

total, about 5 Gt/year)

However, to meet global

stabilization goals will have to

go to 1 Gt/year by 2050

Carbon signal very focused

(80% in land use change,

power and transport)

94% in eight nations

(7)

The challenge to move to a low carbon economy

Figure 11. " Aggressive Pathway I +", 2010-50

Source: Version 2.0.rc1 of the GEA Scenarios Database of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), and own  elaboration   ‐2000 ‐1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Mt C O 2 e

Land‐use Other energy conversion Industrial feedstocks Industry Resid/commercial N2O (agric) CH4 (Agric+waste) Transportation Electricity BAU Aggressive Pathway BAU 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 MtCO2ee

Other energy conversion Industrial feedstocks

Industry Resid/commercial

N2O (Agric) CH4 (Ag+waste)

Transportation Electricity

Land-use

2 tCO2e per capita 2050 9.3 tCO2e per capita 2050

% of total

% of total

(8)

• What needs to be done?

– Stop net deforestation by 2020.

– No net emissions from land use change by 2030,

net accumulation of carbon sinks to 2050, and a

50% cut in agricultural emissions

– Abate final energy demand by 40%

– Power sector with 90% zero-carbon capacity

– Widespread electrification of the transport sector

– Tag: US$110 billion per year

(9)

Zero out deforestation and decarbonize agriculture

80% of the problem of emissions in the region

Decarbonize power sector

(10)

• Priority one

– Develop response measures to maintain water

supply in key basins

– Make coastal zone management climate resilient

– Adapt agriculture to changes in temperatures and

rainfall patterns

– Deploy ecosystem based adaptation

(11)

• Support efforts to avoid deforestation and

promote low carbon practices in agriculture

• Support efforts to decarbonize power and

transport sectors

– Large scale deployment of renewable energy

– Market entry of promising new technologies

– Reduce barriers for private sector investment

– Low carbon high capacity urban transport systems

(12)

Adaptation Plan for Grijalva Basin in Mexico

12

Value proposition/transformative opportunity 40% of all runoffs in Mexico and 30% of all hidro power generation.

The hydrology in the basin is destabilizing: 4 100 year floods in the last 20 years.

Impacts on settlements and economic activities are not yest controlled

The costs to the States of Tabasco and the border area with Guatemala have exceeded 4% of GDP

Objective

Identify adaptation responses to the impacts of climate change in power generation, water supply, infrastructure, and land use.

Use results to structure an adaptation operation

Financials

Project size 400 Million

SECCI investment $1.0M

Climate Funding $100M

IDB Finance $100M

Status

(13)

Adaptation in Fishing sector in Peru

13

Oportunidad de transformación

• Peru 10% world’s of fish catch

• Fisheries account for 3% of GDP

• Fisheries are being afected by changes in

sea surface temperature and dynamics of the

Von Humboldt current.

Financing

Climate funding (AF) US$7 million

SECCI US$0.5 million

Status

 Project concept approved by Adaptation Fund

Objective

 Design and implement pilot adaptation measures for eventual scale up

(14)

Bioclimate Fund in Peru

14

Value proposition/transformative opportunity 20% of the carbon emissions in Latin America and 56% of the emissions in Peru are linked to land use change (largely deforestation).

The piedmont areas of the eastern ridge of the Andes, in particular in Peru provides the habitat for the highest

concentration of biodiversity and high carbon storage in the Planet.

Uncontrolled deforestation and development process, in sensitive areas may threaten its large biological and climate capital.

Objective

Stop and revert the deforestation and land degradation process in the most vulnerable areas of influence of the IOH, Enhancement of carbon stocks and other environmental services in the region of IOH

Financials

Project size 200 Million

SECCI investment $2.0M Climate Funding $100M IDB Finance $20M Others $80M Status  In conceptual stage

(15)

Large Scale Deployment

: Atacama CSP Plant (100MW)– Chile

15

Value proposition/transformative opportunity

 Promote use of solar energy in the Atacama desert, a region with the highest solar radiation levels in the world (3150 kWh/m2-y vs ave 1200 kWj/m2-y in Germany)

 Scale –up incentives for barrier removal for use of solar energy technologies

 Entry of solar will offset need for fossil additions to power sector, delay investments in hydro in fragile south.

 Entry of Low Carbon Technology would transform power sector in Chile have replication potential in Peru

Need for concessional finance

• Concessional financing will be catalytic to improve the mix of IDB long term debt and equity to dramatically reduce the cost of energy produced by the project and thereby attract mining companies

• Need to reduce gap in specific investment costs vis a vis coal option

Financials

Project size 100MW

SECCI investment $0.8M

Secured climate funding (CTF+ CCF) $100M IDB Finance $200M KfW Others $130M $170M Projected GHG emission reductions 10 million tCO2e first 10 years Status

 Chile´s Investment Plan for Clean Technology Fund (CTF) endorsed on May 3, 2012; approval for funds September 2012

(16)

Geothermal Risk Management Instruments

- Regional

16

Value proposition/transformative opportunity

 Geothermal plants are the most reliable, and among the most economical, renewable energy sources

 Latin American geothermal potential exceeds 10 GW -some countries could be 100% geothermal

 Technical assistance needed for pre-investment geo-scientific surface surveys, temperature gradient surveys, field modeling, and support for exploratory drilling

 Finance needed for drilling risk guarantees / insurances during early stage development

Need for concessional finance

g

 Developing geothermal plants is inherently risky-high investment costs in mapping, geological studies, test and confirmation drilling can make up 30-50+% of total project costs - before production is assured

 Facility could reduce risks by introducing contingent loans repayable against successful development of geothermal field.

Financials

Potential project size 200MW

SECCI support $2M Climate Finance $100M Projected GHG emission reductions +/-10 million tCO2e first 10 years Status  Under preparation

(17)

Zero Carbon Transport – High Capacity Electric Buses in Colombia

17

Value proposition/transformative opportunity

 Transport sector is growing the fastest in the region in terms of GHG emissions. Latin-America is a leader in the adoption of (BRT) systems

 Most countries have a low-carbon energy matrix that could support the de-carbonization of transport systems

 Low quality fuel results in poor air quality and risks to public health

 Set incentives to operators to adopt vehicles with better efficiency standards and to scrap obsolete fleets

 Introduction of battery driven articulated buses would transform transport sector and become a big step toward low carbon economies

Financials

Potential project size 10-20 buses

SECCI investment (*) US$5M

Risk Capital US$20M

Other lenders and equity US$8M

Projected GHG emission reductions

Need for concessional sector finance

significant incremental costs

 Technology needs to be tested under operational conditions

 Risks to the early adoption of the technology need to be managed

 Deployment of the technology would require financing significant incremental costs Status

p p

 GEF Project registered, Investment Program under preparation

(18)

Chile: Pilot for Marine Energy Deployment

18

Value proposition/transformative opportunity

 Chile has the highest wave energy potential in the world and great tidal potential (164GW raw wave potential compared to 16GW installed overall power capacity).

 Pilot projects with commercial contracts signed in EU, US. More than 10 technologies entering commercial phase.

 Potential UK-Chile technology development partnership.

 Supply of firm capacity to Chile’s energy needs.

Financials

Potential project size 1MW

SECCI Support US$2 million

Other US$4 million

Objective

(19)

Enable de use of new financial instruments

Give priority to adaptation; focus mitigation

Tie all investments to Action Plan

Support large scale climate investments

Way forward

(20)

References

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