PRINCE GEORGE S COUNTY SEPTEMBER 2020

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MARKET IN A MINUTE

A SUMMARY OF MARKET CONDITIONS FOR AUGUST 2020

Unless otherwise noted, data derived from Metropolitan Regional Information Systems, Inc. (MRIS®_).

“Northern Virginia” is defined as Arlington and Fairfax counties and the cities of Alexandria, Falls Church & Fairfax.

CONTRACTS

Contract activity in August 2020 was

up 7.6%

from August 2019 and was up for three of the five price

categories. Through the first eight months of the year, contract activity is down 7.1%. The average

number of days on the market for homes receiving contracts was 26 days in August 2020, down

significantly from 40 days last August.

URGENCY INDEX

The Urgency Index, simply the percentage of homes going under contract that were on the market 30

days or less, was up in August compared to the year prior. During the past 15 years, the Index has been as

high as 83% (May 2005) and as low as 30% (December 2008). In August 2020, the Urgency Index was

81.1%

, up significantly from 63.3% in August 2019. And that is Prince George’s County’s highest August

Urgency Index in the past 12 years.

INVENTORY

The number of homes on the market at the end of August was

down 58.1%

compared to the end of

August 2019. The number of new listings coming on the market

decreased 8.3%

compared to August

2019. The drop in inventory combined with the increase in contract activity cutting overall supply by

more than 60% to 0.6 month from 1.5 months at the end of August 2019.

INTEREST RATES

30-year fixed mortgage interest rates at the end of August stood at 2.93%, and that is the lowest

month-end rate in history. It is two-thirds of a point lower than this time last year and slightly lower than the

end of last month. Global economic conditions will keep rates low for an extended period of time.

AFFORDABILITY

The payment on a no-money-down, 30-year fixed mortgage for a median-priced home is

60%

higher

than a decade ago in August 2010 – but the median price is

90% higher

! The payment is

5% higher

from

that of last August despite lower interest rates – there was a big spike in the median home price. The

mortgage payment for a median priced home ($1,483) was much lower in August than the median

rented price ($2,000).

DIRECTION OF THE MARKET

Prince George’s County’s real estate market continues its remarkable rebound from the COVID-induced

spring slump. Contract activity over the summer looked more like what we typically see in March

through April, and the extreme lack of inventory continues to make it challenging for buyers. In most of

the region, condo inventory is much higher than last year, but not in Prince George’s. Inventory is much

lower in all price ranges and all property types, and supply is less than two weeks for attached homes.

Across the board, absorption rates near or above 60% – what we consider the mark for an extreme

sellers’ market. For three consecutive months, there has been more new contract activity than

end-of-month inventory, contributing to an ever-tightening market.

PRINCE GEORGE’S COUNTY

SEPTEMBER 2020

S

TAT

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MONTHLY SUMMARY AUGUST 2019 vs. AUGUST 2020

August August %

PRINCE GEORGE'S COUNTY 2019 2020 Change

Number of Sales 924 1,006 8.9%

Fully Available Inventory on 8/31 1,728 724 -58.1%

Number of New Listings 1,347 1,235 -8.3%

Number of New Contracts 1,159 1,247 7.6%

Days on Market - New Contracts 40 26 -35.0%

Average Sales Price $316,267 $364,877 15.4%

Average Seller Subsidy $5,770 $5,006 -13.2%

Urgency Index 63.3% 81.1% 28.1%

Months' Supply 1.5 0.6 -61.1%

MONTGOMERY COUNTY

Number of Sales 1,213 1,314 8.3%

Fully Available Inventory on 8/31 2,105 1,267 -39.8%

Number of New Listings 1,268 1,452 14.5%

Urgency Index 55.6% 77.5% 39.4%

Months' Supply 1.9 0.9 -50.7%

WASHINGTON, DC

Number of Sales 782 917 17.3%

Fully Available Inventory on 8/31 1,319 1,527 15.8%

Number of New Listings 872 1,246 42.9%

Number of New Contracts 703 975 38.7%

Average Seller Subsidy $2,397 $2,448 2.1%

Urgency Index 58.3% 73.6% 26.2%

Months' Supply 1.9 1.6 -16.5%

NORTHERN VIRGINIA

Number of Sales 1,950 2,318 18.9%

Fully Available Inventory on 8/31 2,605 2,134 -18.1%

Urgency Index 70.9% 83.4% 17.6%

Months' Supply 1.5 0.9 -39.3%

LOUDOUN COUNTY

Number of Sales 639 775 21.3%

Fully Available Inventory on 8/31 968 499 -48.5%

Number of New Listings 706 831 17.7%

Number of New Contracts 581 857 47.5%

Urgency Index 66.4% 86.0% 29.5%

Months' Supply 1.7 0.6 -65.1%

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YEAR-TO-DATE SUMMARY 2019 vs. 2020

Jan-Aug Jan-Aug %

PRINCE GEORGE'S COUNTY 2019 2020 Change

Number of Closed Sales 6,705 6,446 -3.9%

Average Month-End Available Inventory 1,639 1,012 -38.3%

Number of New Contracts 9,295 8,632 -7.1%

Average Urgency Index 59.4% 69.7% 17.5%

Average Months' Supply 1.4 0.9 -33.5% MONTGOMERY COUNTY

Average Months' Supply 1.7 1.1 -31.3% WASHINGTON, DC

Average Months' Supply 1.6 1.6 0.0% NORTHERN VIRGINIA

Average Months' Supply 1.2 0.9 -20.7% LOUDOUN COUNTY

Number of Closed Sales 4,547 4,654 2.4%

Average Month-End Available Inventory 919 640 -30.4%

Average Months' Supply 1.4 1.0 -33.6%

* Note: Percentages depicted in red indicate a negative market trend; black indicates a positive market trend

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30-YEAR FIXED AND 1-YEAR ADJUSTABLE RATES

Month-End Mortgage Rates – 2013-Current MORTGAGE RATES

• 30-year fixed interest rates at the end of August averaged

2.93%, compared to 3.58% at the end of August 2019.

• One-year adjustable rate mortgages were 2.93% at the end of August 2020, which is down from 3.31% at the end of August 2019.

BUYING POWER

• A $1,000 principal and interest payment supported a loan of $239,327 at the end of August, which is $18,831 more than August 2019, and $55,979 more than August 2009.

• In August 2010, it would have taken a monthly PI payment of $930 to purchase a median-priced home – now it takes $1,483, a 60% increase.

• Lower interest rates have helped offset the $168,000 increase (up 90%) in the median price since August 2010.

AVERAGE PRICES

• The average sales price in August 2020 was $364,877, an

increase of 15.4% from the August 2019 average price of $316,267.

• Remember that the change in the average sales price – up or down – doesn’t mean that individual home prices are impacted the same way.

BUYING POWER

Mortgage Amount with $1,000 Payment

AVERAGES SALE PRICE

Prince George’s County – 2012-Current

PRINCE GEORGE’S COUNTY – Detail Pages

2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 In te res t R at e 1-Year ARM 30-Year Fixed

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URGENCY INDEX

% of Contracts on the Market for 30 Days or Less Prince George’s County – 2016-Current

URGENCY INDEX

Prince George’s County – August 2009-2020

URGENCY INDEX

DC Metro Area by Jurisdiction Comparison – August 2020

URGENCY INDEX - August • In the past 12 years, the August

Urgency Index has been as high as 81.1% and as low as 30.0%. And we’re at that high mark now.

• The average August Urgency Index during the past 12 years is 56.4% – which is significantly lower than where we are today.

• Contract activity is up 7.6% from last August – and the Urgency Index increased significantly

from 63.3% to 81.1%.

URGENCY INDEX – DC Metro Area

• The average August Urgency Index during the past 12 years for all five of the jurisdictions we track is 57.3% – significantly lower than where we are today, which is 80.7% for all five jurisdictions.

• Of the five jurisdictions, Prince George’s County is in the middle this month. As noted above, it is at its 12-year peak.

URGENCY INDEX – 2016-Current

• This chart compares the number of contracts (green line) to the percent that were on the market 30 days or less (blue bars). At first glance, it may appear that the lower contract activity also means a lower percentage of homes that sell quickly – but that’s not always true. 0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Jan 16 Mar 16 Ma y 16 _Jul 16 Sep 16 Nov 16 Jan 17 Mar 17 Ma y 17 _Jul 17 Sep 17 Nov 17 Jan 18 Mar 18 Ma y 18 _Jul 18 Sep 18 Nov 18 Jan 19 Mar 19 Ma y 19 _Jul 19 Sep 19 Nov 19 Jan 20 Mar 20 Ma y 20 _Jul 20 Num be r of Cont rac ts % of Cont rac ts on the M ark et 30 Day s o r L es s % of Contracts # Contracts

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NEW CONTRACT ACTIVITY • As noted on page 2, the number

of new contracts ratified in August 2020 was up 7.6% from August 2019, and there were increases for three price categories.

• As noted on page 3, contract activity for the first half of the year is down 7.1%.

• 15.0% of all homes going under contract in August had at least one price reduction. Last August it was 27.8%.

MONTHS’ SUPPLY

• The overall supply of homes on the market at the end of August 2020 was just0.6 month, down from 1.5 months at the end of August 2019. Along with Loudoun County, that is the lowest overall supply in the region.

• Supply is lower for all price categories.

FULLY AVAILABLE LISTINGS • As noted on page 2, the available

inventory for August 2020 was

down 58.1% from August 2019. Inventory decreased for all price categories.

• That is by far the biggest drop in the DC metro area.

• 20.9% of all homes on the market have had at least one price reduction since coming on the market. In August 2019, 35.0% of all homes on the market had at least one price reduction.

FULLY AVAILABLE LISTINGS

Prince George’s County – August 31, 2019 vs. August 31, 2020

MONTHS’ SUPPLY

Prince George’s County – End of August 2019 vs. End of August 2020

NEW CONTRACT ACTIVITY

Prince George’s County – August 2019 vs. August 2020 by Price Range

558 535 61 3 2 432 660 138 15 2 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 $0 - $299,999 $300,000 - $499,999 $500,000 - $749,999 $750,000 - $999,999 $1,000,000 and higher # of New Contracts August 2020 August 2019

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AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS _{ON THE MARKET – NEW} CONTRACTS

• The average number of days on the market for all homes receiving contracts in August 2020 was 26days, down significantly from 40 days in August 2019.

AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS ON MARKET

Prince George’s County – August 2019 vs. August 2020 – New Contracts

NUMBER OF NEW LISTINGS, CONTRACTS AND ACTIVE LISTINGS

• There were 1,235 new listings that came on the market in August 2020, an 8.3% decrease

from the 1,347 in August 2019.

• The wide gap between available listings and new contract activity has steadily narrowed during the past three years, and for the last three months new contract activity has exceeded the month-end available inventory.

SOME DEFINITIONS AND EXPLANATIONS TO AID YOUR UNDERSTANDING OF THE DATA

• The data shown here are collected, in whole or in part, from the Metropolitan Regional Information System, Inc, and are believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed

• “Sales” are transactions that settled during the statistical period; “Under Contracts” are contracts negotiated during the statistical period, but not yet settled

• “Available Listings” reflects single-family homes, town homes, new homes and condos on the market at the end of the period in question.

• “Months’ Supply” is simply the number of “Fully Available Listings” on the market at the end of the month divided by the number of “Contracts” ratified that month.

RELATIONSHIP OF SALES PRICE TO ORIGINAL LIST PRICE vs. DAYS ON MARKET • Initial pricing strategy is critical

to the listing process, regardless of market conditions. The longer a home sits on the market, the deeper the discount to its original list price will likely be.

• Homes settling in August 2020 that received contracts their first week on the market sold, on average, 1.92% above list. Those that took 4 months or longer to sell sold for 5.39%below the original price.

NUMBER OF NEW LISTINGS, NEW CONTRACTS, AND ACTIVE LISTINGS

Prince George’s County – January 2014-Current

RELATIONSHIP OF SALES PRICE TO ORIGINAL LIST PRICE vs. DAYS ON MARKET

Resale Properties Sold in Prince George’s County – Aug. 2019 vs. Aug. 2020

36.7 39.2 69.1 102.3 87.5 28.4 21.4 30.8 71.1 40.5 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 $0 - $299,999 $300,000 - $499,999 $500,000 - $749,999 $750,000 - $999,999 $1,000,000 and higher # of Days on Market August 2020 August 2019

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Analysis by Property Type – Condo/Co-op

CONDO/CO-OP - LISTINGS • The number of new listings for

condos and co-ops coming on the market decreased 4.9%

compared to August 2019.

• The fully available inventory of condos as of August 31, 2020

decreased 32.2% compared to 2019.

LISTINGS

CONDO/CO-OP - CONTRACTS • The number of condos and

co-ops receiving ratified contracts increased 9.1% in August 2020 compared to August 2019.

• Year-to-date, contract activity is

up 3.6% compared to 2019.

CONTRACTS

CONDO/CO-OP – SETTLEMENTS AND AVERAGE PRICE

• The number of condos and co-ops settling in August 2020

decreased 11.0% compared to August 2019. Year-to-date, the number of settlements is down just 0.8%.

• The average price increased 17.5% compared to August 2019.

• Year-to-date, the average price is up 7.5%.

SETTLEMENTS

Condo/Co-op

Listings 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change

$299,999 and under 158 148 -6.3% 157 101 -35.7% $300,000 - $499,999 16 23 43.8% 26 23 -11.5% $500,000 - $749,999 6 3 -50.0% 10 10 0.0% $750,000 - $999,999 3 0 -100.0% 4 0 -100.0% $1,000,000 & higher 0 0 - 2 1 -50.0% Grand Total: 183 174 -4.9% 199 135 -32.2%

New This Month Total Active

Condo/Co-op

Contracts 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change

$299,999 and under 152 155 2.0% 1054 1045 -0.9% $300,000 - $499,999 10 20 100.0% 66 112 69.7% $500,000 - $749,999 2 3 50.0% 20 18 -10.0% $750,000 - $999,999 0 0 - 1 6 500.0% $1,000,000 & higher 0 1 - 0 1 -Grand Total: 164 179 9.1% 1141 1182 3.6%

New This Month Year-To-Date

Condo/Co-op

Settlements 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change

$299,999 and under 124 100 -19.4% 726 712 -1.9% $300,000 - $499,999 7 14 100.0% 56 63 12.5% $500,000 - $749,999 5 5 0.0% 15 16 6.7% $750,000 - $999,999 0 2 - 2 2 0.0% $1,000,000 & higher 0 0 - 0 0 -Grand Total: 136 121 -11.0% 799 793 -0.8%

Average Sales Price: Aug 2019 Aug 2020 % Change YTD 2019 YTD 2020 % Change

Condo/Co-op $187,895 $220,818 17.5% $177,622 $190,877 7.5% New This Month Year-To-Date

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Analysis by Property Type – Fee Simple Attached

ATTACHED HOMES – LISTINGS • The number of new listings

coming on the market in August 2020 for fee simple attached homes decreased 1.4%

compared to August 2019.

• The fully active inventory at the end of August decreased 63.8%

compared to the available inventory at the end of August 2019.

LISTINGS

ATTACHED HOMES – CONTRACTS

• Contract activity for attached homes increased 19.0% in August 2020 compared to August 2019.

down 9.7% compared to last year.

CONTRACTS

ATTACHED HOMES – SETTLEMENTS AND AVERAGE PRICE

• The number of settlements

increased 15.4% in August 2020 compared to August 2019. Year-to-date, the number of

settlements is down 4.3%.

• The average sales price was up 9.6% in August 2020 compared to August 2019.

• The average sales price year-to-date is up 9.7%.

SETTLEMENTS

Fee Simple Attached

$299,999 and under 167 120 -28.1% 147 41 -72.1% $300,000 - $499,999 120 156 30.0% 153 62 -59.5% $500,000 - $749,999 4 10 150.0% 9 9 0.0% $750,000 - $999,999 0 1 - 0 0 -$1,000,000 & higher 0 0 - 0 0 -Grand Total: 291 287 -1.4% 309 112 -63.8%

Fee Simple Attached

$299,999 and under 156 130 -16.7% 1353 1001 -26.0% $300,000 - $499,999 74 139 87.8% 638 780 22.3% $500,000 - $749,999 1 6 500.0% 18 35 94.4% $750,000 - $999,999 1 1 0.0% 3 1 -66.7% $1,000,000 & higher 0 0 - 0 0 -Grand Total: 232 276 19.0% 2012 1817 -9.7%

Fee Simple Attached

$299,999 and under 127 108 -15.0% 991 710 -28.4% $300,000 - $499,999 67 109 62.7% 448 653 45.8% $500,000 - $749,999 1 8 700.0% 19 32 68.4% $750,000 - $999,999 0 0 - 0 0 -$1,000,000 & higher 0 0 - 0 0 -Grand Total: 195 225 15.4% 1458 1395 -4.3%

Fee Simple Attached $295,298 $323,701 9.6% $284,819 $312,341 9.7% Year-To-Date New This Month

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Analysis by Property Type – Fee Simple Detached

DETACHED HOMES – SETTLEMENTS AND AVERAGE PRICE

• The number of settlements

increased 11.3% in August 2020 compared to August 2019. Year-to-date, the number of

settlements is down 4.7%.

• The average sales price for detached homes increased 15.0% in August 2020 compared to August 2019.

• The average sales price year-to-date is up 11.2%.

SETTLEMENTS

DETACHED HOMES – CONTRACTS

• Contract activity for detached homes increased 3.8% in August 2020 compared to August 2019.

down 8.3%.

CONTRACTS

DETACHED HOMES – LISTINGS

• The number of new listings for fee simple detached homes

decreased 11.3% in August 2020 compared to August 2019.

• The number of detached homes on the market on August 31, 2020 was down 60.9% compared to August 31, 2019.

LISTINGS

Fee Simple Detached

$299,999 and under 240 126 -47.5% 277 70 -74.7% $300,000 - $499,999 503 489 -2.8% 686 253 -63.1% $500,000 - $749,999 116 147 26.7% 214 128 -40.2% $750,000 - $999,999 11 9 -18.2% 32 16 -50.0% $1,000,000 & higher 3 3 0.0% 11 10 -9.1% Grand Total: 873 774 -11.3% 1220 477 -60.9%

Fee Simple Detached

$299,999 and under 250 147 -41.2% 2194 1333 -39.2% $300,000 - $499,999 451 501 11.1% 3369 3422 1.6% $500,000 - $749,999 58 129 122.4% 547 811 48.3% $750,000 - $999,999 2 14 600.0% 26 60 130.8% $1,000,000 & higher 2 1 -50.0% 6 7 16.7% Grand Total: 763 792 3.8% 6142 5633 -8.3%

Fee Simple Detached

$299,999 and under 183 105 -42.6% 1527 925 -39.4% $300,000 - $499,999 346 419 21.1% 2518 2616 3.9% $500,000 - $749,999 63 124 96.8% 401 669 66.8% $750,000 - $999,999 1 12 1100.0% 18 48 166.7% $1,000,000 & higher 0 0 - 3 0 -Grand Total: 593 660 11.3% 4467 4258 -4.7%

Fee Simple Detached $352,604 $405,325 15.0% $346,471 $385,171 11.2% New This Month Year-To-Date

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Absorption Rate by Property Type

The following tables track absorption rate by property type, comparing the rates in the just-completed month to the

rates in the same month of the previous year. The absorption rate is a measure of the health of the market and

tracks the percentage of homes that were on the market during the given month and in the given price range that

went under contract. [The formula is # Contracts/(# Contracts + # Available).] An example: The absorption rate for

detached homes priced $300,000-$499,999 in August 2020 was 66.4%; that compares to a rate of 39.7% in August

2019, and the increase means the market was better in 2020 for that type of home. If the absorption rate was less in

2020 than in 2019, we have put the 2020 rate in

red

. This month there was

improvement for 11 of the 13 individual

price categories

with contract activity, and one remained the same.

ABSORPTION RATES – CONDOS AND CO-OPS • The overall absorption rate for

condos and co-ops for August was 57.0%, which is an increase from the 45.2% rate in August 2019.

ABSORPTION RATES – ATTACHED HOMES

• The overall absorption rate for attached homes for August was 71.1%, which is a significant increase from the 42.9% rate in August 2019.

ABSORPTION RATES – DETACHED HOMES

• August 2020’s absorption rate for detached homes was 62.4%, which is a significant increase from the 38.5% rate in August 2019.

Fee Simple Attached

Absorption Rates Listings Contracts Rate Listings Contracts Rate

$299,999 and under 147 156 51.5% 41 130 76.0% $300,000 - $499,999 153 74 32.6% 62 139 69.2% $500,000 - $749,999 9 1 10.0% 9 6 40.0% $750,000 - $999,999 0 1 100.0% 0 1 100.0% $1,000,000 & higher 0 0 - 0 0 -Grand Total: 309 232 42.9% 112 276 71.1% August 2019 August 2020

Fee Simple Detached

$299,999 and under 277 250 47.4% 70 147 67.7% $300,000 - $499,999 686 451 39.7% 253 501 66.4% $500,000 - $749,999 214 58 21.3% 128 129 50.2% $750,000 - $999,999 32 2 5.9% 16 14 46.7% $1,000,000 & higher 11 2 15.4% 10 1 9.1% Grand Total: 1220 763 38.5% 477 792 62.4% August 2020 August 2019

Condo/Co-op

$299,999 and under 157 152 49.2% 101 155 60.5% $300,000 - $499,999 26 10 27.8% 23 20 46.5% $500,000 - $749,999 10 2 16.7% 10 3 23.1% $750,000 - $999,999 4 0 0.0% 0 0 -$1,000,000 & higher 2 0 0.0% 1 1 50.0% Grand Total: 199 164 45.2% 135 179 57.0% August 2019 August 2020