Life
expectancy
…
is the
average
lifespan a newborn
can expect
…
is short when
20 000
$
2000
$
200
$
Income per person
(comparable dollars per year)
100
80
60
40
20
0
Life expectancy
(years)
1000
100
1
Population
(millions)
50 years
Burund
i
81 years
20 000
$
2000
$
200
$
Income per person
(comparable dollars per year)
100
80
60
40
20
0
Life expectancy
(years)
1000
100
1
Population
(millions)
50 years
Burund
i
Burundi
2007
20 000
$
2000
$
200
$
Income per person
(comparable dollars per year)
100
80
60
40
20
0
Age
(years)
Life expectancy
(years)
2007
20 000
$
2000
$
200
$
Income per person
(comparable dollars per year)
100
80
60
40
20
0
Age
(years)
Life expectancy
(years)
50 years
1000
100
1Population
(millions)
Burund
i
Burundi
2007
Look at the expected
life of five newborn
100
80
60
40
20
0
Age
(years)
Sarah
Ann
Jean
Liz
Pierre
Burundi
2007
…
if conditions remain as in
Burundi in 2007
during their whole lifetime?
100
80
60
40
20
0
Age
(years)
Sarah
Ann
Jean
Liz
Pierre
Burundi
2007
84
72
57
36
100
80
60
40
20
0
Age
(years)
Sarah
Ann
Jean
Liz
Pierre
Burundi
2007
84
72
57
36
1
child
adult
old
So yes, 2 of 5
100
80
60
40
20
0
Age
(years)
Sarah
Ann
Jean
Liz
Pierre
Burundi
2007
84
72
57
36
1
This is the Life
Expectancy
50 years
Calculate the
mean
…
1+36+57+72+84
20 000
$
2000
$
200
$
Income per person
(comparable dollars per year)
100
80
60
40
20
0
Life expectancy
(years)
20 000
$
2000
$
200
$
Income per person
(comparable dollars per year)
100
80
60
40
20
0
Life expectancy
(years)
1000
100
1Population
(millions)
81 years
Sweden
Sweden
Do all Swedes
2007
20 000
$
2000
$
200
$
Income per person
(comparable dollars per year)
100
80
60
40
20
0
Life expectancy
(years)
1000
100
1Population
(millions)
81 years
Look at the expected
life of five newborn
Swedes
…
2007
Sweden
Sweden
Age
100
80
60
40
20
0
Age
(years)
Sara
Anton
Jan
Lisa
Per
How long will
they live
…
…
if conditions remain as in
Sweden in 2007
during their whole lifetime?
100
80
60
40
20
0
93
Age
(years)
Sara
Anton
Jan
Lisa
Per
Sweden
2007
63
77
84
88
1 adult
100
80
60
40
20
0
93
Age
(years)
Sara
Anton
Jan
Lisa
Per
Sweden
2007
63
77
84
88
63+77+84+88+93
5
=81
81 years
Sweden
2007
100
80
60
40
20
0
1000
100
1
Population
(millions)
Life expectancy
(years)
Sweden
81 years
20 000
$
2000
$
200
$
Let’s compare
Sweden
20 000
$
2000
$
200
$
Income per person
(comparable dollars per year)
100
80
60
40
20
0
Life expectancy
(years)
1000
100
1
Population
(millions)
81 years
Sweden
50 years
Burund
100
80
60
40
20
0
Age
(years)
2007
81
100
80
60
40
20
0
Age
(years)
2007
But “dying young” in
Sweden
is very
different
from “dying young” in
Burundi
So, no,
all Burundians do
not live 31
years shorter
than Swedes
“To live long” in
Sweden
is almost the
same
as
Life expectancy
…
is an average
…
is low when
child-deaths are common
-Most Burundians get older than 50
-Some die in childhood
-It is low in Burundi
not because all die a bit earlier
-But because
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Essential Question:
•
How does geography of health
influence population dynamics?
Ans:
Life Expectancy affected. How?
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Infectious Diseases
–invasion of
parasites into body (Two Types)
• 65% of all diseases are infectious
• Malaria –
Vectored (Need Host)
• HIV/AIDS, Influenza-
Nonvectored
(Need Contact)
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Chronic and Genetic Diseases
•
Also called degenerative diseases
• Afflict middle and old age populations
• 100 years ago in the United States: tuberculosis,
pneumonia, and heart diseases
• Today: Cancer, heart disease, stroke and accidents
are the leading causes of death in the United States
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
HIV/AIDS
•
Leads to Lower Life Expectancies
•
1980’s began the rapid diffusion
•
In 2007 68% of all AIDS cases occurred in Sub-Saharan Africa
•
¼ people in Sub-Saharan Africa infected
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Map of HIV Prevalence Worldwide
2005
Source: UNAIDS, 2006 Report on the Global AIDS Epidemic, 2006.
Adults Ages 15-49 with HIV
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
People Living with HIV, by Region
Distribution, 2005
Note: Total exceeds 100 percent due to rounding.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
• In 2005, an estimated 38.6 million adults and children worldwide were living with HIV.
• Sixty-three percent of the world’s HIV population lives in sub-Saharan Africa.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
HIV Demographics, Worldwide
Composition of the Population Living with HIV, 2005
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
HIV Demographics, Africa
Composition of the Population Living with HIV, 2005
Sub-Saharan Africa
Rest of the World
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Notes on HIV Demographics, Africa
• The proportion of people living with HIV who are adult women (ages 15 to 49) is 1.9 times higher in sub-Saharan Africa than in other regions.
• In sub-Saharan Africa, where HIV is spread predominantly through heterosexual activity, women account for more than half of the 24.5 million people living with HIV. In other regions, the proportion of people living with HIV who are women drops to an average of around
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Adults with HIV Who are Women
Source: UNAIDS, 2006 Report on the Global AIDS Epidemic, 2006.
2005
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
• Women make up almost one-half of HIV-infections worldwide and 59 percent of infections in sub-Saharan Africa, where the virus is spread predominantly through heterosexual transmission and has reached the general population. In a generalized epidemic, women’s low status and inability to negotiate with men puts them at great risk of contracting the disease.
• Women account for smaller percentages of infected people where the AIDS epidemic is limited to high-risk populations such as injecting drug users or men having sex with men.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Population Structure in 2020
Millions
Male s
Females
With AIDS Without AIDS Age 80+ 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
AIDS’ Toll on Population Structure, South Africa
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Millions
South Africa’s Population With and Without AIDS
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Selected Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2002-2005
Deaths of children under age 5 per 1,000 live births
Source: UNAIDS and UNICEF, A Call to Action: Children, The Missing Face of AIDS, 2005; and United Nations,
World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Sub-Saharan Africa
Millions of children under age 18
Note: Estimate of children who lost at least one parent to an AIDS-related cause. Source: UNAIDS, UNICEF, and USAID, Children on the Brink 2004.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
