APRIL, 2009 EXTERNAL
SCAN
2008‐2018 ECONOMIC
TRENDS
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1987‐2008 ECONOMIC TRENDS—Unemployment and Enrollment
For LAHC, Rising Unemployment is associated with Rising Enrollment associated with Rising Enrollment 200.00% 220.00% 240.00% 140.00% 160.00% 180.00% 80.00% 100.00% 120.00% 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 * 198 198 8 198 9 199 0 199 199 199 199 4 199 199 199 199 8 199 9 200 0 200 200 200 200 4 200 200 200 200 8 2009 Unemployment Enrollment *Spring 2009 estimate Sources: LACCD Office of Institutional Research; CA Economic Dev. Dept.
2008‐2018 ECONOMIC TRENDS—Changes in Industries and Occupations
So far Projections that reflect the recession are unavailable So far, Projections that reflect the recession are unavailable Percent change in employees from Feb. '08 to Feb '09 By Industry ‐4.0% ‐2.0%0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% By Industry ‐12.0% ‐10.0%‐8.0% ‐6.0% % change
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; http://www.bls.gov
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2008‐2018 ECONOMIC TRENDS—Unemployment and Educational Attainment
In March 2009 the national unemployment rate was 8 5 but In March 2009, the national unemployment rate was 8.5, but Educational background is a major factor. Unemployment Rate by Educational Level, National Data, March 2009 10 12 14 4 6 8 Rate 0 2 Less than a high school diploma HS graduates, no college Some college or associate degree Bachelor's degree or higher Rate 13.3 9 7.2 4.3
2008‐2018 ECONOMIC TRENDS
SUMMARY
SUMMARY
High demand for classes will continue through at least
High demand for classes will continue through at least
Spring 2010—perhaps Fall 2010.
Industrial and Occupational Projections will be hard to find
during the recession
during the recession.
Education remains the “best defense” against
unemployment.
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2008‐2018 DEMOGRAPHIC
TRENDS
2008‐2018 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS‐‐Numbers
Our Service Area is projected to grow by 4%, the state is projected to grow by 7%. A year ago, the percentages were 6% and 11%respectively
106 108 Percent Change 100 102 104 Service Area CA. 96 98 100 2008 2018 Year
Source: EMSI Complete Employment - Spring 2009
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2008‐2018 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS—High School Seniors
The number of High School Seniors in our Service Area will peak in 2010 and then decline
2008‐2018 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS—Our Service Area is Aging
Our Service Area population is aging
Source: EMSI Complete Employment - Spring 2009 Source: EMSI Complete Employment - Spring 2009
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2008‐2018 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS—Age Distribution Alternate View
Our Service Area population is aging
Source: EMSI Complete Employment - Spring 2009 Source: EMSI Complete Employment - Spring 2009
2008‐2018 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS— While Our Service Area Population is Aging, Our Students Aren’tp g g, 3,000 1 500 2,000 2,500 1999 f Students 500 1,000 1,500 2008 Number O f 0
Concurrent H.S. Under 20 20‐24 25‐34 35 and over
Age
Source: LACCD Office of Institutional Research and Information, Information Digest, February 2009. http://research.laccd.edu/research/
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2008‐2018 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS— So, putting the two together, you get something like this, p g g , y g g o ld Age Breakdown of Students and Service Area 25 0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% tion 15+ ye ar s o 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 15 20 20 24 25 34 35 54 55 % of popula 15‐20 20‐24 25‐34 35‐54 55+ Fall 2008 students 34.2% 30.8% 19.4% 12.5% 3.0% 2008 service area 9.9% 8.8% 17.3% 37.4% 26.5% 2018 service area 7.7% 8.4% 17.9% 32.7% 33.2%
2008‐2018 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS—Ethnicity
In our Service Area, current trends continue
Source: EMSI Complete Employment - Spring 2009 Source: EMSI Complete Employment - Spring 2009
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2008‐2018 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS—Ethnicity Alternate View
In our Service Area, current trends continue
2008‐2018 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS Ethnicity of Our Students y 3,500 4,000 e r Of Studen ts 2,000 2,500 3,000 1999 2008 Numb e 500 1,000 1,500 2008 Ethnicity 0
African Amer Asian Hispanic White
Source: LACCD Office of Institutional Research and Information, Information Digest, February 2009. http://research.laccd.edu/research/
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2008‐2018 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS
SUMMARY
SUMMARY
O
h
10
h
l i
i
i
Over the next 10 years, the population in our service area
will grow by 4%, the state will grow by 7%.
Over the next 10 years, the population in our service area
will age and the number of people in the age groups of
traditional college students will decline
traditional college students will decline.
The percentage of Hispanics/Latinos and Asians will
i
hil th
t
f hit
d Af i
increase, while the percentage of whites and African‐
Americans will decrease.
2008‐2018
TECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS
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TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGES Data from the 2007 student survey at Los Angeles Harbor College: M th 86% f t d t ft ti More than 86% of our students often or sometimes use a computer at home to do school work. Eighty‐two percent (82%) often or sometimes use the g y p ( ) Internet for an assignment. Another 76% utilized the Internet to apply, register, check grades and add or drop classes
TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGES Excerpts from the National Education Technology Plan (2004) 90 percent of children between ages 5 and 17 use computers. 94 percent of online teens use the Internet for school‐ related research. Th l f f h I f The largest group of new users of the Internet from 2000‐2002 were 2‐5 year olds. About 25 percent of all K–12 public schools now offer p f p ff some form of e‐learning or virtual school instruction. Within the next decade every state and most schools will be doing so. 24 Version 4
TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGES
Excerpts from the National Education Technology Plan (cont.) Today’s students are very technology‐savvy, feel strongly
about the positive value of technology and rely upon
technology as an essential and preferred component of technology as an essential and preferred component of every aspect of their lives.
Students are not just using technology differently today
b t are approaching their lives and their daily activities
but are approaching their lives and their daily activities differently because of the technology. As students get older, their use of technology becomes more sophisticated, but, comparatively, the younger students are on a fast track to becoming greater technology users and advocates. The access point for technology use, particularly for older
TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGES‐‐ LAUSD Instructional Technology Plan “Strategic planning goals for the Instructional Technology Planning g p g g gy g project are offered below: Curriculum Identify student technology standards and deliver them equitably y gy q y to all students. Identify and implement approaches for using technology resources to support the District’s goals and learning priorities. Establish electronic access to appropriate informational and learning resources from school to homes and community centers. Provide e‐learning opportunities for remediation, acceleration, e‐ learning opportunities for remediation, acceleration, and possible reduction of class size.” ‐‐‐Source: LAUSD Instructional Technology Plan Version 4 26
TECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS SUMMARY
TECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS SUMMARY
At least 75% of our students use computers for school
At least 75% of our students use computers for school
work.
90% of children and teenagers use computers.
They rely upon technology as an essential and preferred
They rely upon technology as an essential and preferred
component of every aspect of their lives.
Even LAUSD has a plan for integrating technology and e
Even LAUSD has a plan for integrating technology and e‐
COMPETITION IN
PHYSICAL SPACE
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COMPETITION
OUR PHYSICAL SERVICE AREA
Service Areas
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Zip Codes w/ 1000 or more students
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Zip codes w/ 200- 999 students
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Zip codes w/ less than 200 students students Service Area Boundary
COMPETITION
OUR PHYSICAL SERVICE AREA Students per 1000 residents
Age 15 or older
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<2
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deleted. Verify that the link points 10-20 The linked image cannot be
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2-4.9
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>20
to the correct file and location.
Service Area Boundary
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OUR PHYSICAL SERVICE AREA—
LAHC and our feeder high schoolsg
Feeder High Schools
LOS ANGELES HARBOR COLLEGE
Service Area Boundary
1111 Figueroa Place Wilmington, California 90744-2397
OUR PHYSICAL SERVICE AREA— LAHC and our feeder high schools and otherg Public Colleges Public Colleges Feeder High Schools
LOS ANGELES HARBOR COLLEGE
Service Area Boundary 1111 Figueroa Place Wilmington, California 90744-2397 32 Version 4
OUR PHYSICAL SERVICE AREA— LAHC and our feeder high schools and Private Agencies thatg g offer Educational Services Feeder High Schools Public Colleges
LOS ANGELES HARBOR COLLEGE
Private Agencies
1111 Figueroa Place Wilmington, California 90744-2397
Service Area Boundary
COMPETITION IN PHYSICAL SPACE
SUMMARY
The Pacific Ocean to the west and south.
Bigger colleges with lower over‐heads to the north and
east.
east.
Hundreds of other organizations w/in our service area that
offer “education”
offer education .
34 Version 4COMPETITION IN
VIRTUAL SPACE
COMPETITION‐‐
OUR VIRTUAL SERVICE AREA
Moderate Growth in Online Classes
350 Percent Change in Online Enrollments 250 300 350 150 200 Percent Change East Harbor Mission Trade‐Tech 0 50 100 LACCD CA cc's* *Fall only 0 2003‐04 2004‐05 2005‐06 2006‐07 2007‐08 Academic Year 36 Version 4
COMPETITION‐‐
OUR VIRTUAL SERVICE AREA
Rapid Growth in Online Classesp
2500 Percent Change in Online Enrollments 2000 Harbor CA cc's* 1000 1500 CA cc s City LACCD Pierce South‐west 500 West 0 2003‐04 2004‐05 2005‐06 2006‐07 2007‐08 Academic Year
COMPETITION‐‐
OUR VIRTUAL SERVICE AREA
Growth in Online Degrees
Four colleges in the LACCD are now developing or offering online degrees.
Seventy‐four percent of the colleges surveyed in the 2008 Distance Education Survey offer online degrees
Distance Education Survey offer online degrees. More Los Angeles Harbor College students who transfer to private colleges/universities in California transfer to the University of Phoenix than any other private college or university. 38 Version 4
