Guidelines for Designing Disaster Risk Assessment Projects. GLOBAL RISK IDENTIFICATION PROGRAMME Better Risk Information for Sound Decision Making

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GLOBAL RISK IDENTIFICATION PROGRAMME

“Better Risk Information for Sound Decision Making”

Guidelines for Designing

Disaster Risk Assessment Projects

Methodology and Tools

Empowered lives. Resilient nations.

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We encourage the free use of the contents of this report with appropriate and full citation. Acknowledgements: The development of these guidelines was led by Jianping Yan with valuable inputs from current and former members of GRIP, especially Carlos Villacis, Avani Dixit and Veronica Grasso. We would also like to thank for generous contributions by other people that participated in the development process.

Disclaimer: GRIP is hosted by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). The informa-tion and opinions expressed in this publicainforma-tion do not necessarily reflect the views of UNDP. This publication is avaliable from:

Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP) Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery (BCPR) United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)

11-13, chemin des Anémones, Châtelaine, CH-1219, Geneva, Switzerland http://www.gripweb.org

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Better Risk Information for Sound Decision Making

Guidelines for Designing

Disaster Risk Assessment

Projects

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Acronyms and Abbreviations

BCPR Bureau for Crises Prevention and Recovery

CD Capacity Development CRA City Risk Assessment DA Disaster Analysis

DRM Disaster Risk Management

DRM/R Disaster Risk Management/Reduction DRR Disaster Risk Reduction

DRRRT Disaster Risk Reduction and Recovery Team

GIS Geographic Information System

GRIP Global Risk Identification Programme

NDO National Disaster Observatory

NRA National Risk Assessment

NRIS National Risk Information System

PAC Policy Advisory Committee RI Risk Informer

SIERA Systematic Inventory Evaluation Risk Assessment TAC Technical Advisory Committee

UNDP United Nations Development Programme

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List of Figures

Figures

Figure 1: Organigram for Implement NRA 12 Figure 2: A summary of GRIP’s Knowledge Products and Services 15

Acronyms and Abbreviations

5 GRIP— GUIDELINES FOR DESIGNING DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT PROJECTS

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1. Introduction

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2.Scope and Context

GRIP aims to promote sustainable development by reducing the impact of natural hazards in high-risk areas. Its specific objectives are to im-prove the quality of risk information and under-standing of disaster risks and to increase its use in decision making processes. With the mission of providing “better risk information for sound de-cision making”, GRIP facilitates the generation of evidence-based risk information and promotes its application to improve the quality of policies, regulations and investments at all levels.

At national level, GRIP supports countries at high risk to reduce the risks they are facing to their acceptable levels, and thus protect its develop-ment gains, by promoting effective Disaster Risk Management/Reduction (DRM/R) based on risk assessment – a long-term, locally supported and implemented process. The current levels of the risks a country is facing are the results of decades or centuries of unplanned growth and an almost complete absence of proper risk considerations in decision making. Therefore, DRM/R cannot be achieved with short-term, isolated actions. In line with the required long-term processes that UNDP would like to promote, GRIP focuses its practices to support the countries to build the capacities and necessary conditions to carry out risk assessment at different levels on their own, which involve the following main aspects:

t3JTLJEFOUJmDBUJPOBOEBTTFTTNFOUUPVOEFS -stand the problem and set up realistic, measur-able goals, such as reducing mortality or expect-ed economic losses by 50% in the next 10 years;

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(or delineation of one if there is none) based on the newly-generated information and under-standing of risks. This plan should include a clear implementation strategy that defines priorities, roles, policies and regulations, monitoring and evaluation mechanisms, timelines, among other things:

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-gal, Institutional, financial frameworks) to make it possible the implementation of the National DRM/R Strategy. This should be done through the close engagement of all relevant stakehold-ers in both the risk identification and the revi-sion of the DRM Master Plan;

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building to actively engage the various sectors of the society in the implementation of the DRM Strategy;

t*NQMFNFOUBUJPOPGEFNPOTUSBUJPOQSPKFDUTJO -cluded in the Master Plan for the identified high-risk areas of the country to initiate a long-term implementation process of the National DRM Master Plan;

tUIZFBS&WBMVBUJPOPGUIF/BUJPOBM%3.4USBU -egy to see what is working and what is not and make the necessary corrections.

Specifically, the scope and elements of GRIP practices in the countries include:

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vulnerabilities, disaster-prone areas, and recov-ery capacities;

t&WJEFODFCBTFESJTLJOGPSNBUJPOBOECBTF -lines: to set up measurable goals and prepare evidence-based DRR strategies;

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measure progress (or lack of it) and evaluate and correct strategies;

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conduct risk assessment at national and local levels, on their own.

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3. Implications on DRR

The assessment and understanding of potential losses is the basis for risk management. It allows for the determination of the acceptable level of risk - defined as the level of losses that is accept-able without destroying lives, national economy or personal finances. Once the acceptable level of risk is determined, the capacity (legal, finan-cial, institutional, and political) to reduce the risk above the acceptable level can be assessed. Risk prevention and reduction measures such as policy formulation, land-use plans, and disaster preparedness should be taken to counter exist-ing risks. Mechanisms, such as insurance, can be implemented to transfer non-reducible risk. Risk assessment is therefore central to the imple-mentation of risk reduction strategies. Periodic evaluation of potential losses (risk) can provide an explicit indication of progress (or lack of it) in risk reduction.

Risk assessment therefore is not a one-time ef-fort but a continuous process, crucial for every stage of the risk management process to under-stand the risk, its causes and possible solutions; to monitor the effectiveness of risk reduction ac-tivities and their actual impact; and to evaluate periodically the overall strategies and make the necessary adjustments.

Risk assessment can also play a crucial role in early and long-term recovery. Estimation and planning of emergency shelter after a major dis-aster can be an example of risk assessment ap-plication in early recovery. The conditions of ex-posure and vulnerability that led to the disaster in the first place can be avoided during recon-struction phase through proper analysis of risks and implementation of risk reduction activities.

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4. Target Group

NRA is mainly targeted to the following audi-ence:

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local governments);

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projects (United Nations Development Pro-gramme (UNDP), United Nations (UN) or other agencies’ staff).

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The development and implementation of a NRA project or programme requires a full engage-ment of all the stakeholders in the country and extensive collaboration and partnership. The fol-lowing are typical partners in NRA programmes/ projects (Figure 1).

1. National Coordination Team

It is composed of a programme coordinator from the government or the national agency in charge of disaster risk management and technical coor-dinators from a prestigious national technical in-stitution, at a minimum. It is in charge of overall project implementation.

2. Multi-sectoral Technical Groups

Technical advisory committee (TAC) and policy advisory committee (PAC). TAC provides technical advice on risk assessment and its applications and revises the project for technical accuracy. PAC pro-vides overall guidance and advice on long-term project planning, project priorities, visibility to the project and ownership promotion, functioning as a programme steering committee as well. In gen-eral, TAC is composed of a task force of universities, research institutes, and professional associations, whereas the members of PAC include representa-tives from relevant ministries, local authorities, civ-il society, and the private sector.

3. Working Groups

It is composed of a group of disaster risk man-agement experts, hazard specialists, structural engineers, economists, social scientists, and in-formation analysts. It is responsible for the im-plementation of all project activities. To ensure the sustainability of National Risk Assessment, it is highly recommended that the risk assessment team is built with a long-term vision.

4. Implementing Partners

They are the agencies and institutions that keep and/or provide information needed for the na-tional risk assessment and the establishment of the National Risk Information System. Besides pro-viding basic data, they also play a key role in the review and validation of the results, the calibration of methodologies, and the application and pres-entation of the results.

5. Partners and Stakeholders

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Figure 1: Organigram for Implement NRA

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6. Implementation Strategies

To initiate the required long-term processes that UNDP would like to promote, GRIP suggests the countries to start with a comprehensive 4-5 year phase in which the countries build the capaci-ties and necessary conditions to carry out the long-term process on their own, as a first step of action. In the implementation of these ac-tivities, local capacity building and institutional strengthening must be a priority. Hopefully, by the end of these activities (in about 4-5 years), there will be the necessary awareness, experi-ence, capacity, community support and political commitment for the local institutions to contin-ue the implementation of the National DRM/R Strategy with increasingly less assistance from UNDP and other international organizations. For most countries to implement DRM/R pro-grammes, it is suggested to start with, at least, the following 5 activities:

t5PQFSGPSNBTZTUFNBUJDJOWFOUPSZBOEFWBMV -ation of risk assessment (SIERA) to create base-lines for national DRM activities;

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(NDO) to learn from the past;

t5PDPOEVDUNVMUJIB[BSE/BUJPOBM3JTL"TTFTT -ment (NRA) to create a comprehensive national disaster risk profile;

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cities at high risk in the country; and

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Reduction Action Plans for the main urban areas (cities) based on the risk assessment results. To assist the countries with these activities, the

GRIP has developed a comprehensive solution package for national risk identification and as-sessment, which consists of 5 risk assessment services (Figure 2):

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Assessments (SIERA) to support the country to understand its current situation, issues and chal-lenges, strengths and weaknesses, gaps and ex-ternal needs, etc, in the context of national risk assessment, aiming to create clearly-defined baselines for formulating realistic and reason-able implementation plans for national risk as-sessments;

t/BUJPOBM%JTBTUFS0CTFSWBUPSZ /%0UPTVQ -port the establishment of a sustainable institu-tion, which includes a nation-wide network of disaster observers, for the systematic collection, compilation, and interpretation of historic dis-aster losses, providing sound inputs to better disaster preparedness and response that can be incorporated into the national DRR strate-gy;

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country to create a comprehensive national risk profile for formulating evidence-based national strategy for DRR;

t6SCBO3JTL"TTFTTNFOU 63"JTUPTVQQPSUVS -ban or municipal administrations to generate a sound evidence of risks for their urban planning and contingency planning;

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the country to develop a sustainable mechanism for risk assessment by enhancing the capacities of national institutes based on a learning-by-do-ing approach.

All the above-listed 5 services can be imple-mented either entirely or partially, depending on the capacity level of the countries and their special needs for risk information. For the time being, the solution package has been already applied in several countries. For example, in the GRIP Demonstration Countries (i.e. Mozambique, Ecuador, and Sri Lanka), the whole package is being implemented, whereas Armenia, funded

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by BPAC/UNDP, is implementing risk identifica-tion activities as the first phase of a 5-year com-prehensive DRM program.

Regarding the way to implement the work, GRIP would provide the methodologies, training, tech-nical advice, and coordination assistance that would be required. Since the main objective is to build local capacity, especially at the institution-al level, it will be important to engage nationinstitution-al and local institutions, rather than individuals, for the implementation of these activities. By doing so, GRIP will promote the incorporation of these activities into the regular activities of the local institutions, which in many cases have already the mandate to work on these issues. Through this, we will be trying to ensure sustainability of these activities. It is the only way. With consult-ants, one can get the results but no capacity re-mains and the effort is usually an isolated, un-sustainable activity. Additionally, working with national institutions results in much lower costs since the relevant institutions will use their own staff, who will be trained and will continue work-ing for the organization in the long-term but with increased capacities and knowledge. Any funding provided to the institutions will serve for institutional strengthening rather than going

to individuals.

Operationally, GRIP practices in the countries in-clude 15 aspects that are delivered on request, covering the whole UNDP project cycle:

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- Overall vision on DRR based on risk assessment;

- Preparation of concept notes.

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- Scoping workshop; - Proposal development;

- Review and evaluation of technical proposals.

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- Project document finalization; - Access to financial support; - Interaction with other countries.

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- Coordination and overview;

- Provision of appropriate methodologies and tools;

- Hands-on trainings;

- Technical support and advice; - Monitoring and review.

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- Result review and evaluation; - Closing workshop.

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Figure 2: A Summary of GRIP’s Knowledge Products and Services

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7. Typical Outputs

The key outputs of a NRA project or programme include:

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a country faces within a given timeframe, de-scribed in terms of potential losses and probabil-ity of their occurrence. Comprehensive risk pro-files may also include impacts, categorization and relative priority of the risks as well as the identi-fication of acceptable levels of risks, high-risk ar-eas/hotspots and risk reduction measures;

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and local levels, as well as by hazard, in terms of the different needs and requirements of decision making applications;

t/BUJPOBM%JTBTUFS0CTFSWBUPSZ /%0"TVT -tainable institution for the systematic collection, analysis and interpretation of disaster-related

data. NDO is an integral part of National Risk In-formation System (NRIS);

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based decision support system for DRM/R;

t&-JCSBSZTQFDJmDUPSJTLJEFOUJmDBUJPOBTTFTT -ment and applications;

t/BUJPOBMDPPSEJOBUJPONFDIBOJTNGPSSJTLBT -sessment;

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based on risk assessment;

t/BUJPOBMDBQBDJUZGPSJNQMFNFOUJOHSJTLBTTFTT -ment.

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8. Indicative Activities

A comprehensive NRA programme/project gen-erally involves 5 key thematic areas, which can be implemented as projects:

t4*&3"o4ZTUFNBUJD*EFOUJmDBUJPOBOE&WBMVB -tion for Risk Assessment;

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The indicative activities associated with these projects are listed as follows:

1) Key components/activities of a SIERA project (4-6 months)

t$PNQPOFOU1SFMJNJOBSZJEFOUJmDBUJPOJO -ventory (1-2 months):

- Introductory workshop (SIERA Training); - Interviews and group discussions; - Validation workshop.

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(1-2 months);

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- SIERA reporting;

- National scoping workshop.

2) Key components/activities of a NRA project

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- Needs and requirements assessment; - Design of National Risk Information System (NRIS);

- Training on data integration; - Integration of existing datasets; - Production of datasets required.

t$PNQPOFOU%JTBTUFSSJTLBOBMZTJTBOE profiling: - Hazard analysis; - Exposure analysis; - Vulnerability analysis; - Loss/impact analysis; - Disaster risk profiling.

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- Country-specific application needs

assessment;

- Preliminary Analysis of hazard, exposure and risk profiles;

- Training of end users on risk analysis & applications;

- Systematic reporting and knowledge generation;

- Inputs to DRR National Master Plan.

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- Validation & Scoping workshop; - Mid-term progress reporting;

- Evaluation workshop on key findings; - Final symposium.

3) Key components/activities of a NDO project

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- Introductory Workshop;

- Preparation of Working Groups; - Creation of National Network; - Institutionalization of day by day collection;

- Training on Disaster Registration.

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- Needs and requirements assessment; - Inventory of existing DBs;

- Database design; - Training on Data Entry;

- Integration of existing disaster databases;

- Inventory of historical disasters; - Systematic Disaster Registration.

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- Country-specific application needs assessment;

- Preliminary Analysis of disaster database;

- Training of end users on disaster analysis & applications;

- Systematic reporting and knowledge generation;

- Inputs to DRR National Master Plan.

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- Mid-term progress reporting; - Report on preliminary analysis;

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Final symposium.

4) Key components/activities of a URA project

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- Establishment of the coordination team, working groups, and advisory groups;

- Collection and compilation of data from different sources;

- Kick-off meeting to raise awareness among the community and bring all the potential stakeholders on board.

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- Identification of all major hazards prevailing in the city and its surroundings;

- Development plausible event scenarios for relevant hazards; - Mapping of the spatial distribution of hazard event severity.

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- Identification of the exposure of population and physical structures to hazard events.

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- Development of vulnerability functions for exposed physical structures and population;

- Development of realistic damage and impact scenarios;

- Consultation with relevant

stakeholders to validate the developed damage and impact scenarios.

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- Assessment of the current level of risk management and disaster

preparedness;

- Formulation of risk management activities, implementation strategy, and institutional arrangements; - Development of urban disaster risk reduction action plan and contingency plans for relevant risk and disaster scenarios;

- Consultations with relevant authorities to take decisions and put them into practice, and with the public to raise

awareness.

5) Key components/activities of a CRA project

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pecific solutions, local knowledge, implementa-tion planning,capacity development, coordina-tion mechanism in terms of risk identificacoordina-tion and assessment.

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sharing, Interaction & networking, collaboration & partnership, cross-boundary issues in the con-text of risk identification and assessment.

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9. Specific Monitoring and Evaluation

Considerations

GRIP’s Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) consid-erations are 3-fold:

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projects, GRIP tracks the progress of a project in terms of the 15 aspects of country support within the UNDP’s project cycle;

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assessment, GRIP implements SIERA for the crea-tion of country profile for risk assessment and encourages the countries to update the country profile annually and track the changes;

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helps the countries develop baselines for DRR based on evidence-based risk assessment.

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10. Useful Tools and Resources

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Identification and Assessment, please visit GRIP site: http://www.gripweb.org.

t5PCFUUFSEFTJHOUIFNBUJDBSFBTQFDJmDJOUFS -ventions, please refer to the following materials that are available upon request:

- Booklet on GRIP service package;

- Concept paper on GRIP country support; - Concept notes on National Risk

Assessment Framework;

- Template ToRs for SIERA, NRA, NDO, URA;

- Guidelines for implementing NRA, NDO, and URA (under development);

- Concept notes on national workshops on SIERA, NRA, NDO;

- Sample applications of risk assessment;

- Pre-disaster shelter planning;

- Climate change adaptation; - Poverty-disaster loss

nexus;

- Methodologies: - RAIDUS tool;

- Flood Risk Assessment Tool (FRAT);

- SIERA methodology;

- National disaster coding system;

- GRIP hazard

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Guidelines for Designing Disaster Risk Assessment Projects. GLOBAL RISK IDENTIFICATION PROGRAMME Better Risk Information for Sound Decision Making

GLOBAL RISK IDENTIFICATION PROGRAMME

“Better Risk Information for Sound Decision Making”

Guidelines for Designing

Disaster Risk Assessment Projects

Methodology and Tools

Better Risk Information for Sound Decision Making

Guidelines for Designing

Disaster Risk Assessment

Projects

Acronyms and Abbreviations

List of Figures

Table of Contents

1. Introduction

2.Scope and Context

3. Implications on DRR

4. Target Group

5. Partners and Stakeholders

6. Implementation Strategies

7. Typical Outputs

8. Indicative Activities

9. Specific Monitoring and Evaluation

Considerations

10. Useful Tools and Resources

Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP)

Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery (BCPR)

United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)

11-13, chemin des Anémones, Châtelaine, CH-1219

Geneva, Switzerland