DS/MKI | 140125 | 25.09.2014 | © Robert Bosch GmbH 2014. Alle Rechte vorbehalten, auch bzgl. jeder Verfügung, Verwertung,
Diesel Systems
Perspective on CO
2
-Technology Penetration in CV-Market
Michael Bitter, Robert Bosch GmbH
DS/MKI | 140125 | 25.09.2014 | © Robert Bosch GmbH 2014. Alle Rechte vorbehalten, auch bzgl. jeder Verfügung, Verwertung,
Diesel Systems
Development of average CO
2
-emission in Europe
Heavy commercial vehicles >6t from 1965 - today
Source: lastauto omnibus
1985:
1965:
~1.325
-26%
Direct injection / Turbo chargers / New transmissions and intercooling
Introduction of different stages of emission legislation (mainly NO
x
)
Increasing fuel prices, ongoing CO
2
-emission legislation discussions, SCR technology as well as
Innovations pushes further consumption reductions
2014:
~848
2
1985
1965
800
1.100
1.000
900
0
2020
2015
2010
2000
1995
1990
2005
CO
2
Emi
ssi
on
[g/
Km]
720
~973
-20%
-12%
ACEA
2020
Expected CO
2
reduction potential
until 2020 compared to 2005
Target Commitment
DS/MKI | 140125 | 25.09.2014 | © Robert Bosch GmbH 2014. Alle Rechte vorbehalten, auch bzgl. jeder Verfügung, Verwertung,
CO
2
/Greenhouse Gas regulations worldwide*
Heavy Commercial Vehicles
Diesel Systems
~45%
No regulation
Regulation under discussion
Regulation effective
Source:
http://www.c2es.org/international/key-country-policies/emissions-targets
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 2011, FCCC/AWGLCA/2011/INF.1 and FCCC/SB/2011/INF.1/Rev.1
CO
2
/ Greenhouse Gas Regulations for heavy-duty trucks and buses start to spread worldwide
Different to car CO
2
-emission regulations, the limits in the Asian countries are stricter than for EU/US.
17%
~35%
20%
~25%
~20%
~20%
*Bubble size equates to relative market volume
DS/MKI | 140125 | 25.09.2014 | © Robert Bosch GmbH 2014. Alle Rechte vorbehalten, auch bzgl. jeder Verfügung, Verwertung, Reproduktion, Bearbeitung,
Diesel Systems
Vehicle measures for CO
2
reduction in Europe
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
30,0%
35,0%
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
7)
8)
9)
10)
ACEA Vision 2020
2005 2012
2020
Additional CO
2
-reductions require further power train measures
2025…2030
Source: BOSCH / CO
2
picture: Verivox
//
EGR: Exhaust Gas Recirculation / FIE: Fuel Injection Equipment / PPC: Predictive Power train Control /
DCT: Double Clutch Transmission / HEV: Hybrid Electric Vehicle / WHR: Waste Heat Recovery
7.5%
1.0%
1.5%
1.5%
4.0%
1.5%
1.5%
0.5%
5.0%
5.0%
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
30,0%
35,0%
Fuel
/CO
2
e
ff
ic
ie
ncy
//
4
DS/MKI | 140125 | 25.09.2014 | © Robert Bosch GmbH 2014. Alle Rechte vorbehalten, auch bzgl. jeder Verfügung, Verwertung,
Diesel Systems
Quelle: BOSCH
Results
2035
2014
2000
Simulation
model
Use cases:
Longhaul
Lower
Construction
Garbage
Coach
Distributor
City Bus
Technologies:
Customer:
Model to simulate the diffusion of CO
2
-technologies in the market
HD Distributor
• Construction Industry
• Logistic Industry
• Consumer goods Industry
• Municipality
- Public transportation
- Waste management
• …
DS/MKI | 140125 | 25.09.2014 | © Robert Bosch GmbH 2014. Alle Rechte vorbehalten, auch bzgl. jeder Verfügung, Verwertung,
Diesel Systems
Causal loop diagrams can reveal the complexity as well as
inter-dependency of stake holders in the CV market
Quelle: BOSCH-Seitz
Driving profil Willingness to select powertrain technologies Relevance Noise Noise emission regulation Technology subsidies Well-to-wheel emissions Refilling effort Willingness to invest in on-site reffilling stationToxic emission Familiarity Service training effort Range Technological development/ engine concepts Training subsidies External Service KnowHow On-site refilling Infrastructure Costs Urbanisation Relevance toxis emissions Alternative technology availability Personal cost Uncertainty Bidding process TCO Entry restriction Political interest Investment costs/ price sensitivity Knowledge about DVP National infrastructure availability Electrification auxiliaries Local infrastructure availability Technical uncertainty Economical uncertainty Service effort E-mobility Fleet homogenity Preference for dominant design "Green Image" Technology "Green Image" society On-side refilling capabilities Cooperation energy supplier Infrastructure cost Fleet size
Number of cars per gas pump Refilling time Service and maintenance cost Number of pilot projects Electrification powertrain Amortisation time Corporate social responsibility Political regulation Competition transportation business Competition OEM Personal attitude decision maker Usefulness Buying decision technologies Willingness to invest in technologies OEM Conventional technology availability Technology availability Market volume technologies OEM R&D budget Modular concepts Saving potential technologies Technology maturity level Battery cost Battery weight "Green Image" OEM Cooperation OEM/ local government Governmental subsidy program Technology development time Technology attractiveness Installation space Technology weight Battery capacity
Fuel/ CO2 savings
Harmonisation Global spread of regulation Technological awareness Reduction of dependency on cruide oil Fuel diversification CO2-Limits Expactation of OEM OEM Interest Exhaust gas emission/ Euro6 Subsidies EU infrastructure subsidies Infrastructure Availability Local subsidies Period of usage Willingness to invest in company owned infrastructure Market volume natural gas "Stand alone" gas
station Component cost Fuel consumption Amortisation inrastructure investment Pipline infrastructure Pipline pressure level Security of demand Customer acceptance Willingness to invest in infrastructure Amortisation costs
Interest gas station owner Technical know-how infrastructure construction Technical regulation LNG Technical regulation CNG Overcapacity CNG Number of existing gas station Financial capabilities city government Market volume cruide oil Interest of gas industry Fuel price Power/ torque of natural gas engines
LongDistance DVP Reliability/ durability of technologies Energy density natural gas
Fuel price natural gas Fuel price Diesel
Technology availability CNG Competition power trains Transportation business Technology rediness level Uncertainty subsidies e.g. tax Comparability/ price
declaration of natrual gas
Market volatility
Transparency of fuel prices New business models in
transportation business
Gas station density
Political technology openess Vehicle loading capacity Additional weight alternative technology Quality and reliability
of delivery Energy tax regulation CO2-regulation Technology availability LNG Urban DVP
Natural gas engine concepts Existing pipeline network Combustion efficiency Well-to-wheel savings Engine efficiency meassures Predictive Powertrain Control (PPC) Aerodynamic messures Waste Heat Recovery (WHR) Cooperation natrual gas provider/ OEM
Profitability OEM Tank volume Investment area-covering infrastructure Willingness to invest in long-haulage infrastructure
Market volume natrual gas engines passenger cars
Responsibility CO2-targets OEM margin Procurement of components Trade margin Achievement of objectives OEM Market share OEM Emission free cities
Awareness CO2 ExtraUrban DVP Battery loading time Availability of energy/ raw material Effort to apply for
subsidies Request of subsidies National subsidies Technology/ car concepts Transport volume Public transportation Market penetration alternative powertrains Environmental zone/ vehicle labeling Society's pressure/ development Compatibility infrastructure Capacity of gas station/ infrastructure R&D expenses OEM Additional cost of alternative power trains
Cruide oil price Kind of transportation Marketing expenses OEM PC/ LCV regulation Willingness to invest in alternative vehicles customer R&D subsidies Willingness to research customer Battery rediness level Overhead (electrical) line Engagement customer Periode of usage old vehicles Willingness to invest in alternative powertrains market Cooperation customer/ energy provider Profitability of infrastructure investment Willingness to invest in
infrastructure natural gas provider Driver Pioneering spirit customer Stable political/ market conditions Number of return-to-base vehicles Return-to-base DVP Political decision making process Variety of technologies Price stability Autonomous driving CO2-oriented taxiation
Interest local/ city government Infrastructure problems
e.g. congestion Number of cars within city center Factor cost Usage of platforms over segments Innovativeness OEM OEM size Qualification employee OEM Lightweighting Technological complexity E-Connectivity Driver assistance systems
Telematic-/ early error detection service
OEM presence in segments
Life time engines OEM brand diversification User know-how "Green logistics" Number of vehicles Vehicle loading volume Tour mangement/ planing Particulate matter Lobbying Interest European Union Reference meassures European climate politics Road tolls and
charges Local interest of members of the EU Personal background of EU commissioner Market transparency Air quality Global market penetration Attractiveness of market position OEM Transportation efficiency Vehicle loading utilization Local restrictions Number of empty drives Willingness to cooperate user Costs of cooperation HUB construction