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DS/MKI | 140125 | 25.09.2014 | © Robert Bosch GmbH 2014. Alle Rechte vorbehalten, auch bzgl. jeder Verfügung, Verwertung,

Diesel Systems

Perspective on CO

2

-Technology Penetration in CV-Market

Michael Bitter, Robert Bosch GmbH

(2)

DS/MKI | 140125 | 25.09.2014 | © Robert Bosch GmbH 2014. Alle Rechte vorbehalten, auch bzgl. jeder Verfügung, Verwertung,

Diesel Systems

Development of average CO

2

-emission in Europe

Heavy commercial vehicles >6t from 1965 - today

Source: lastauto omnibus

1985:

1965:

~1.325

-26%

Direct injection / Turbo chargers / New transmissions and intercooling

Introduction of different stages of emission legislation (mainly NO

x

)

Increasing fuel prices, ongoing CO

2

-emission legislation discussions, SCR technology as well as

Innovations pushes further consumption reductions

2014:

~848

2

1985

1965

800

1.100

1.000

900

0

2020

2015

2010

2000

1995

1990

2005

CO

2

Emi

ssi

on

[g/

Km]

720

~973

-20%

-12%

ACEA

2020

(3)

Expected CO

2

reduction potential

until 2020 compared to 2005

Target Commitment

DS/MKI | 140125 | 25.09.2014 | © Robert Bosch GmbH 2014. Alle Rechte vorbehalten, auch bzgl. jeder Verfügung, Verwertung,

CO

2

/Greenhouse Gas regulations worldwide*

Heavy Commercial Vehicles

Diesel Systems

~45%

No regulation

Regulation under discussion

Regulation effective

Source:

http://www.c2es.org/international/key-country-policies/emissions-targets

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 2011, FCCC/AWGLCA/2011/INF.1 and FCCC/SB/2011/INF.1/Rev.1

CO

2

/ Greenhouse Gas Regulations for heavy-duty trucks and buses start to spread worldwide

Different to car CO

2

-emission regulations, the limits in the Asian countries are stricter than for EU/US.

17%

~35%

20%

~25%

~20%

~20%

*Bubble size equates to relative market volume

(4)

DS/MKI | 140125 | 25.09.2014 | © Robert Bosch GmbH 2014. Alle Rechte vorbehalten, auch bzgl. jeder Verfügung, Verwertung, Reproduktion, Bearbeitung,

Diesel Systems

Vehicle measures for CO

2

reduction in Europe

0,0%

5,0%

10,0%

15,0%

20,0%

25,0%

30,0%

35,0%

1)

2)

3)

4)

5)

6)

7)

8)

9)

10)

ACEA Vision 2020

2005 2012

2020

Additional CO

2

-reductions require further power train measures

2025…2030

Source: BOSCH / CO

2

picture: Verivox

//

EGR: Exhaust Gas Recirculation / FIE: Fuel Injection Equipment / PPC: Predictive Power train Control /

DCT: Double Clutch Transmission / HEV: Hybrid Electric Vehicle / WHR: Waste Heat Recovery

7.5%

1.0%

1.5%

1.5%

4.0%

1.5%

1.5%

0.5%

5.0%

5.0%

0,0%

5,0%

10,0%

15,0%

20,0%

25,0%

30,0%

35,0%

Fuel

/CO

2

e

ff

ic

ie

ncy

//

4

(5)

DS/MKI | 140125 | 25.09.2014 | © Robert Bosch GmbH 2014. Alle Rechte vorbehalten, auch bzgl. jeder Verfügung, Verwertung,

Diesel Systems

Quelle: BOSCH

Results

2035

2014

2000

Simulation

model

Use cases:

Longhaul

Lower

Construction

Garbage

Coach

Distributor

City Bus

Technologies:

Customer:

Model to simulate the diffusion of CO

2

-technologies in the market

HD Distributor

• Construction Industry

• Logistic Industry

• Consumer goods Industry

• Municipality

- Public transportation

- Waste management

• …

(6)

DS/MKI | 140125 | 25.09.2014 | © Robert Bosch GmbH 2014. Alle Rechte vorbehalten, auch bzgl. jeder Verfügung, Verwertung,

Diesel Systems

Causal loop diagrams can reveal the complexity as well as

inter-dependency of stake holders in the CV market

Quelle: BOSCH-Seitz

Driving profil Willingness to select powertrain technologies Relevance Noise Noise emission regulation Technology subsidies Well-to-wheel emissions Refilling effort Willingness to invest in on-site reffilling station

Toxic emission Familiarity Service training effort Range Technological development/ engine concepts Training subsidies External Service KnowHow On-site refilling Infrastructure Costs Urbanisation Relevance toxis emissions Alternative technology availability Personal cost Uncertainty Bidding process TCO Entry restriction Political interest Investment costs/ price sensitivity Knowledge about DVP National infrastructure availability Electrification auxiliaries Local infrastructure availability Technical uncertainty Economical uncertainty Service effort E-mobility Fleet homogenity Preference for dominant design "Green Image" Technology "Green Image" society On-side refilling capabilities Cooperation energy supplier Infrastructure cost Fleet size

Number of cars per gas pump Refilling time Service and maintenance cost Number of pilot projects Electrification powertrain Amortisation time Corporate social responsibility Political regulation Competition transportation business Competition OEM Personal attitude decision maker Usefulness Buying decision technologies Willingness to invest in technologies OEM Conventional technology availability Technology availability Market volume technologies OEM R&D budget Modular concepts Saving potential technologies Technology maturity level Battery cost Battery weight "Green Image" OEM Cooperation OEM/ local government Governmental subsidy program Technology development time Technology attractiveness Installation space Technology weight Battery capacity

Fuel/ CO2 savings

Harmonisation Global spread of regulation Technological awareness Reduction of dependency on cruide oil Fuel diversification CO2-Limits Expactation of OEM OEM Interest Exhaust gas emission/ Euro6 Subsidies EU infrastructure subsidies Infrastructure Availability Local subsidies Period of usage Willingness to invest in company owned infrastructure Market volume natural gas "Stand alone" gas

station Component cost Fuel consumption Amortisation inrastructure investment Pipline infrastructure Pipline pressure level Security of demand Customer acceptance Willingness to invest in infrastructure Amortisation costs

Interest gas station owner Technical know-how infrastructure construction Technical regulation LNG Technical regulation CNG Overcapacity CNG Number of existing gas station Financial capabilities city government Market volume cruide oil Interest of gas industry Fuel price Power/ torque of natural gas engines

LongDistance DVP Reliability/ durability of technologies Energy density natural gas

Fuel price natural gas Fuel price Diesel

Technology availability CNG Competition power trains Transportation business Technology rediness level Uncertainty subsidies e.g. tax Comparability/ price

declaration of natrual gas

Market volatility

Transparency of fuel prices New business models in

transportation business

Gas station density

Political technology openess Vehicle loading capacity Additional weight alternative technology Quality and reliability

of delivery Energy tax regulation CO2-regulation Technology availability LNG Urban DVP

Natural gas engine concepts Existing pipeline network Combustion efficiency Well-to-wheel savings Engine efficiency meassures Predictive Powertrain Control (PPC) Aerodynamic messures Waste Heat Recovery (WHR) Cooperation natrual gas provider/ OEM

Profitability OEM Tank volume Investment area-covering infrastructure Willingness to invest in long-haulage infrastructure

Market volume natrual gas engines passenger cars

Responsibility CO2-targets OEM margin Procurement of components Trade margin Achievement of objectives OEM Market share OEM Emission free cities

Awareness CO2 ExtraUrban DVP Battery loading time Availability of energy/ raw material Effort to apply for

subsidies Request of subsidies National subsidies Technology/ car concepts Transport volume Public transportation Market penetration alternative powertrains Environmental zone/ vehicle labeling Society's pressure/ development Compatibility infrastructure Capacity of gas station/ infrastructure R&D expenses OEM Additional cost of alternative power trains

Cruide oil price Kind of transportation Marketing expenses OEM PC/ LCV regulation Willingness to invest in alternative vehicles customer R&D subsidies Willingness to research customer Battery rediness level Overhead (electrical) line Engagement customer Periode of usage old vehicles Willingness to invest in alternative powertrains market Cooperation customer/ energy provider Profitability of infrastructure investment Willingness to invest in

infrastructure natural gas provider Driver Pioneering spirit customer Stable political/ market conditions Number of return-to-base vehicles Return-to-base DVP Political decision making process Variety of technologies Price stability Autonomous driving CO2-oriented taxiation

Interest local/ city government Infrastructure problems

e.g. congestion Number of cars within city center Factor cost Usage of platforms over segments Innovativeness OEM OEM size Qualification employee OEM Lightweighting Technological complexity E-Connectivity Driver assistance systems

Telematic-/ early error detection service

OEM presence in segments

Life time engines OEM brand diversification User know-how "Green logistics" Number of vehicles Vehicle loading volume Tour mangement/ planing Particulate matter Lobbying Interest European Union Reference meassures European climate politics Road tolls and

charges Local interest of members of the EU Personal background of EU commissioner Market transparency Air quality Global market penetration Attractiveness of market position OEM Transportation efficiency Vehicle loading utilization Local restrictions Number of empty drives Willingness to cooperate user Costs of cooperation HUB construction

Politics

Technical-Availability

Attractivity of

technology

Customer demand

Infrastructure

Exemplary characteristics out of expert

interviews:

Customer demand:

e.g. Habit, Reliability, Charging station,

E-Mobility, E-Connectivity, Driver assistance

systems

Politics:

e.g. Emission free cities, Subsidies, CO

2

-Reduction, Fuel taxation

Technology:

e.g. Constructed size, OEM-size, Level of

maturity, Market volume

Infrastructure:

e.g. Emerging markets, Margin per fuel- /

Charging-station, Payback period,

Investment cost & incentive

(7)

DS/MKI | 140125 | 25.09.2014 | © Robert Bosch GmbH 2014. Alle Rechte vorbehalten, auch bzgl. jeder Verfügung, Verwertung,

Diesel Systems

Scenarios of CO

2

-technology penetration until 2030*

9%

9%

Scenario 2

67%

10%

14%

Scenario 1

75%

12%

4%

Long-haul

City Bus

Total HCV market

Scenario 2

30%

18%

4%

48%

Scenario 1

50%

27%

4%

19%

70%

50%

12%

10%

6%

15%

8%

6%

19%

Scenario 2

Scenario 1

4%

Source: BOSCH internal PT-Simulation

CO

2

-technology penetration strongly depends on respective use case

Diesel

Diesel Hybrid

Gas

Diesel WHR

Electric PT

* European heavy commercial vehicle market including advanced power train technologies and vehicle efficiency packages

(8)

DS/MKI | 140125 | 25.09.2014 | © Robert Bosch GmbH 2014. Alle Rechte vorbehalten, auch bzgl. jeder Verfügung, Verwertung, Reproduktion, Bearbeitung,

Diesel Systems

Summary

The CO

2

-technology penetration rate depends from different use cases and emission

legislations

For CO

2

-reduction beyond 2020 further power train measures are necessary

The era of pure diesel power trains is far from being over, but in certain commercial vehicle

use cases its dominance will decline

(9)

DS/MKI | 140125 | 25.09.2014 | © Robert Bosch GmbH 2014. Alle Rechte vorbehalten, auch bzgl. jeder Verfügung, Verwertung,

Diesel Systems

Perspective on CO

2

-Technology Penetration in CV-Market

Michael Bitter, Robert Bosch GmbH

References

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