Improving decision-making by reducing ignorance

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Intelligence Applications & Intelligence Led

Decision Making for Security Professionals

13th European Security Conference

The Hague, 2nd_{April 2014}

Erik de Vries, CPP & Dick Oey, MSc, CPP

Intelligence …….

Improving decision-making

by

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Before making a strategic decision

1. Do you know … all you need to know?

2. … what you don’t know?

3. … where to find what you need to know?

4. … what to do with the info once you find it?

2 April 2014 ASIS EU 2014 3

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Introduction Dick Oey, MSc CPP CCIA

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Agenda

• Introduction

• Threats | Security Domains

• Triple A

©

_{| Knowledge Cycle}

• Practical cases | Better and worse cases

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CHANCE X EFFECT

Do you know all you kneed to know?

20 th

_{Century vs. 21}

st

_Century

• Tangible, linear, comprehensible

• Analog, singular, deterministic

• Mechanistic, logical, simple

• Not easy

• Manageable

Known knowns & Known unknowns

What don’t you know?

20 th

_{Century vs. 21}

st

_Century

• Networked, Adaptive, Creative, Positive

• Pro-Active, Holistic, Engaged, Social

• Sustainable, Responsible, Constructive

• Multi-Dimensional

• Digital, Viral

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If you can see the invisible,

you can do the impossible

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The last Kodak moment …..

• Revenues $ 16 billion (1996)

• 12.000 employees

• Bankruptcy 2012

• Inventor of the digital camera in 1976

2 April 2014 ASIS EU 2014 13

Kodak moment = Security moment?

Kodak was the Google of its day; pioneering technology

and innovative marketing

“You press the button, we do the rest”

• 90% of film and 85% of camera sales in US

• Decision: No shift from film tot consumer electronics

Not willing to trade 90% (film) market share

for 10% in consumer electronics

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Kodak moment = Security moment?

Now what if ...

… you want to hold on to your market share:

• Selling security guards hours

• Selling physical security measures

• Etc.

Instead of …

… entering into new innovative security solutions

2 April 2014 ASIS EU 2014 15

Human gate

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Security (management) domains

People

Security

Physical Security

Information

Security

ICT Security Security Management 2 April 2014 ASIS EU 2014 17

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Where to find what you need to know?

2 April 2014 ASIS EU 2014 19

You cannot escape the

responsibility of

tomorrow by evading it

today.

– Abraham Lincoln

Informed decision-making

Lessons Learned From History: The Military Process

Out- OODA Looping… the history of planning…success

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System of Systems Analysis

2 April 2014 ASIS EU 2014 21

From: Guillaume Nicaise

21 st

_{Century Business Continuity}

Survival in the information age requires

A knowledge driven corporate decision model Knowledge management & foreknowledge

Flexible

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Implementation: Triple A

©

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Security Intelligence

Protective Intelligence Red teaming

Practical

• Actions

• Steps

• Examples

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Practical cases

• Crisis management exercise

• Euro

• Arabic spring • WTC

• Next level of Foreknowledge:

• Tactical: Predictive Profiling • Operational: Crime Analysis • Strategic: Red Teaming

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Remember…?

1. Do you know … all you need to know?

2. … what you don’t know?

3. … where to find what you need to know?

4. … what to do with the info once you find it?

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Top 4 actions list

1. Build a network

– Platform information exchange

2. Switch from Reactive to Proactive

– Analytical Hiërarchy

3. Demand Professional Quality

– Certification & Education Standards

4. Use Informed Corporate Decisionaking

– Aquire Foreknowledge

2 April 2014 ASIS EU 2014 27

Platform Information Exchange

Security Intelligence

Protective Intelligence

Red teaming

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Top 4 actions list

1. Build a network

2. Switch from Reactive to Proactive

3. Demand Professional Quality

4. Use Informed Corporate Decisionaking

2 April 2014 ASIS EU 2014 29

Events / Incidents Indicator

Behaviour & Movements Model A n a ly ti c a l H ie ra rc h y

Proactive Behaviour Prediction

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Top 4 actions list

1. Build a network

2. Switch from Reactive to Proactive

3. Demand Professional Quality

4. Use Informed Corporate Decisionaking

2 April 2014 ASIS EU 2014 31

Certification & Education Standards

–

Protective Intelligence /

Triple A

–

Certified Security

Intelligence Professional

(CSIP



)

–

Certified Crime &

Intelligence Analyst

–

Certified Protection

Professional

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Top 4 actions list

1. Build a network

2. Switch from Reactive to Proactive

3. Demand Professional Quality

4. Use Informed Corporate Decisionaking

– Aquire Foreknowledge 2 April 2014 ASIS EU 2014 33

Acquire Foreknowledge

Competitor Model Knowledge Management Informed Decision Enlightened Action

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2 April 2014 ASIS EU 2014 35

Intelligence …….

Improving decision-making

by

reducing ignorance

Reducing security is an option …

but only if it’s

a conscious decision!

Security innovation needs:

a shift from repression to prevention

&

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Thank you

@Erik_de_Vries http://www.linkedin.com/pub/erik-de-vries-cpp/2/65a/24 [email protected] +31 6 1174 4521 Erik de Vries CPP Director/Owner DutchRisk bv Chairman ASIS Benelux

https://www.linkedin.com/profile/ view?id=22670177

[email protected]

+31 6 2462 8723

HDGT Oey, MSc, CPP, CCIA Principal Consultant - Director Enigma Solutions