Explaining cost overruns in highway projects : a geo spatial regression modelling and cognitive mapping of latent pathogens and contextual drivers

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Explaining Cost Overruns in Highway Projects: A

Geo-Spatial Regression Modelling and Cognitive Mapping of

Latent Pathogens and Contextual Drivers

Amadi Alolote Ibim

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Explaining Cost Overruns in Highway Projects: A Geo-Spatial Regression

Modelling and Cognitive Mapping of Latent Pathogens and Contextual Drivers

Amadi Alolote Ibim

School of the Built Environment

College of Science and Technology

University of Salford, UK.

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Table of

List of Figures

Figure 1.1: Map of Niger Delta Showing Heterogeneous Terrain ... 2

Figure 1.2: Typical Transportation Mode in the Meander Belts of the Niger Delta ... 6

Figure 1.3: Degenerating Uncompleted and Abandoned Road Projects in the Niger Delta ... 7

Figure 1.5: Thesis Structure ... 16

Figure 2.1: Average Annual Expenditure as a percentage of GDP in Sub-Saharan Africa ... 20

Figure 2.2 Trends in Transport Sector Contribution to GDP ... 22

Figure 2.3: Nigeria’s Road Network ... 24

Figure 2.4: Analysis of Cargo Delivered at Nigerian Seaports (1991-2002) ... 24

Figure 2.5: Road Ownership in Nigeria ... 25

Figure 2.6 Federal Road Network in Nigeria ... 26

Figure. 2.7 Map of Nigeria showing Geographic Boundaries ... 27

Figure 2.8 Vegetation Map of Nigeria ... 28

Figure 2.9 Map of Nigeria showing Land Form and Relief ... 28

Figure 2.10: Aerial photograph of the Niger Delta Lowlands, Southern Nigeria... 29

Figure 2.11 Geologic Definition of the Niger Delta ... 30

Figure 2.12 Political Definition of the Niger Delta ... 31

Figure 2.13: Transportation in the Niger Delta ... 33

Figure 2.14: Proposed Intra-Regional Road Network in the Niger Delta ... 35

Figure 2.15: Resumption of Construction Work after over Five Decades of Abandonment .... 36

Figure 2.16 Flooded Abandoned Community Roads in the Niger Delta ... 37

Figure 2.17: Community Protest over the Abandonment of the Opume-Okoro Road Project .. 37

Figure. 3.1. Typical Bounds of Estimate Accuracy in Project Development Phases ... 48

Figure 3.2: Freiman Curve Showing Estimating Scenarios ... 51

Figure 3.3. Budgetary Implementation Phases ... 51

Figure 3.4 Circle of Concern for Ground conditions ... 57

Figure 3.5 Explanatory Model of Cost overruns ... 60

Figure 3.6: Theoretical Framework of Lock-in ... 74

Figure 3.7: Decision level Time Line... 75

Figure 3.9: Explanatory Framework for cost overruns by Love et al. (2012) ... 76

Figure 3.12: Core and Periphery Framework ... 82

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Figure 3.14: Counterfactual Causal Chains/Case Histories Leading to Cost Overruns ... 88

Figure 3.15: Generic Model of Ideal Explanation to Cost Overruns ... 89

Figure 4.1: Research Methodology of this Study ... 94

Figure 4.2: Research Philosophical Position ... 112

Figure 4.3: Deductive/Inductive Based Research Reasoning in this Study ... 116

Figure 4.5: Approach to Theory generation in this Research ... 118

Figure 4.6: Methods of Study in this Research ... 123

Figure 4.7: Researcher’s Conceptualisation of Study Phenomena ... 138

Figure 4.8: Embedded Single Case Study Design showing Elements of the Case ... 139

Figure 4.9: Practical Approach to Theory Construction in this Study ... 141

Figure 4.10: Interview Structure used for Collecting Primary Data ... 146

Figure 4.11: Overall Case Study Research Design ... 157

Figure 5.1: Mangrove/Freshwater Swamps in the Niger Delta... 158

Figure 5.2: Tropical Rainforest in the Niger Delta ... 159

Figure 5.3: Data Filtration Criteria for Analysis ... 160

Figure 5.4: Frequency Distribution and Box-plot of Cost Overrun Data ... 162

Figure 5.5: Cost Implication of Road Construction in the Niger Delta... 163

Figure 5.7: Highway Construction in the Niger Delta Mangrove Swamp Forest ... 165

Figure 5.8: Geologic Classification of the Niger Delta (Allen, 1965) ... 170

Figure 5.10: Geotechnical Zones of the Niger Delta after Akpokodje (1987). ... 172

Figure 5.11: Geomorphic Units of the Niger Delta after IGST (1996) ... 173

Figure 5.12: Geomorphic Units of the Niger Delta after Ngah and Youdeowei (2013) ... 174

Figure 5.13: Map of Disaggregated Niger Delta Showing Rivers and Bayelsa State ... 176

Figure 5.14: Engineering Classification of Niger Delta Sub-Grade Soils ... 177

Figure 5.16: Niger Delta Showing LGA’s in the Adopted Basis of Geo-Classification ... 178

Figure 5.17: Error Bar Chart and Mean Plot of Group Samples... 180

Figure 5.18 (a and b): Normality Plots of Project Data before and after Transformation ... 181

Figure 5.19: Box-plots showing Cost Overrun and Log-transformed Cost Overrun Values .... 182

Figure 5.20: Hierarchical Array of Pair-wise comparisons... 184

Figure 5.21: The USCS Soil Classification Designation Symbols ... 187

Figure 5.22 Engineering Behaviour of Fine Grained Soils with Increasing Water Content ... 191

Figure 6.1: Conceptual Approach to the Literature ... 195

Figure 6.2: Ground Related Risk and its Impact on Construction ... 196

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Figure 6.5: Typical Bounds of Estimate Accuracy ... 210

Figure 6.6: Association between Expenditure on Site investigations and Cost overruns ... 215

Figure 6.7: Geotechnical Information Flow for Traditional/Design and Build ... 222

Figure 6.8 Impact of Geotechnical Information on Designs in Highway Project Phases ... 223

Figure 6.9: Cost Impact of Variations in Projects with Project Advancement ... 227

Figure 6.9: Contractual Impact of Lack of GI on Highway Project Delivery ... 229

Figure 6.1: Organisational Structure (NDDC) ... 236

Figure 7.2: Map of Rivers State ... 238

Figure 7.3: Map of Rivers State Showing Relief ………..239

Figure 7.4: LGAs in Rivers State ... 240

Figure 7.5: Organisational Structure- RMW ... 242

Figure 7.6: Map of Bayelsa State... 243

Figure 7.7: Bayelsa State showing Relief ... 243

Figure 7.8: Human Settlement in Bayelsa State ... 244

Figure 7.9: Map of Bayelsa State Showing LGA’s ... 245

Figure 7.10: Organisational Structure – BMWI ... 246

Figure 7.11: Conceptual Template of A Priori Themes highlighting the flow of (GI) ... 255

Figure 6.12: Snapshot of NVivo Coding ... 259

Figure 7.13: Clusters of Emergent Sub-Themes and Themes ... 260

Figure 7.14: Hierarchical Structure of the Themes ... 262

Figure 8.1: Configuration of Pre-Contract Phases for HA1 ... 266

Figure 8.2: Coding Structure for Geotechnical Input in Preliminary Phases ... 268

Figure 8.3: Coding Structure for Geotechnical Input in designs ... 274

Figure 8.4: Design Configurations ... 279

Figure 8.5: Coding Structure for GI in Contracts ... 284

Figure 8.6: Contract Documentation provided by Clients to Contractors in Bidding ... 285

Figure 8.7: Post contract Impact of Geotechnical Risk ... 293

Figure 8.8: Calls in the Literature for a Step Change in Geotechnical Practice ... 303

Figure 9.1: Word Cloud Showing Frequently Discussed Issues ... 304

Figure 9.2: Organisational Structure HA3 ... 308

Figure 10.1: Complexity of Interaction and Contexts in Highway Projects in the Niger Delta . 338 Figure 10.2: Flow Chart Depicting a Step-Wise Multiple Regression Explanatory Modelling.. 340

Figure 10.3: Histogram and Normality Plots of Residuals ... 344

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Figure 10.5: Histogram of Residuals before and after Log-Transformation ... 345

Figure 10.6 Normality P-P Plots before and after Log Transformation ... 345

Figure 10.7: Residual Plots before and after Transformation ... 346

Figure 10.8: Normality of Distribution of Residuals, after Transformation/Outlier Omission.... 347

Figure 10.9 Residual Plots showing Improvement in Non-autocorrelation ... 347

Figure 10. 10: Scatter Plot of Free Swell Vs Plasticity Index ... 349

Figure 10.11: Scree Plot of Principal Components ... 350

Figure10.12: Component Plot in Rotated Space... 351

Figure 10.13: Assessment Criteria for Comparison of Level of GI ... 356

Figure 10.14: Residual Plots ... 359

Figure 10.15: Partial Regression Plots of Cost overrun Vs geotechnical indices... 361

Figure 10.16: Partial Regression Plots of Cost Overrun Vs Geo-Zone ... 362

Figure 10.17: Partial Regression Plots for Levels of GI in Project Phases ... 362

Figure 10.18: Bar Chart of Nodes Compared by Frequency of Coded References... 365

Figure10.19: Cognitive Map of Geotechnical and Emergent Themes as Cost Drivers ... 367

Figure 10.20 Conceptual Approach to Managing Ground Conditions ... 370

Figure 11.1: Summary of the Research Process ... 374

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List of Tables

Table 1.1 Infrastructure Backlog of Uncompleted Projects in the Niger Delta ... 7

Table1.3: Abandoned and Uncompleted Road Projects in the Niger Delta ... 8

Table 1.4: Identified Cost Drivers/Potentials for Added Value in Highway Investment ... 11

Table1.5: Approach to Achieving Research Objectives/Answer Research Questions ... 14

Table2.1:TotalNationalRoadNetwork ... 25

Table 2.2 Delay and Abandonment Causes in Developing Countries ... 39

Table 2.3: Delay and Abandonment Causes for Public Projects in Nigeria ... 40

Table 3.1: Cost Estimation Scenarios ... 44

Table 3.2: Historic Cases of Cost Overrun in Construction Projects ... 45

Table 3.3: Perspectives on Critical Cost overrun phase ... 50

Table 3.4: Dichotomous Explanations of Cost Overruns in Highway Projects ... 62

Table 4.3: Five Axioms of Quantitative vs. Qualitative Research Methods ... 119

Table 4.4: Typical Characteristic of Qualitative Research identified in this Study... 119

Table 4.5: Attributes of Qualitative and Quantitative Research Methods ... 120

Table 4.6: Characteristics of this Research ... 121

Table 4.7: Research Strategies in Qualitative and Quantitative Methods ... 124

Table 4.8: Measures of Reliability and Validity in Case Study Research ... 137

Table 4.9: Measures of Validity and Reliability adopted in this Case Study ... 137

Table 5.1: Project Cost Overrun Data for Completed Highway Projects ... 160

Table 5.2: Descriptive Summary Measures ... 161

Table 5.3: Hypotheses and Statistical Tests used in the inferential Quantitative Analysis ... 166

Table 5.4: ANOVA Table ... 168

Table 5.5: Classifications of the Niger Delta Soils ... 175

Table 5.6: Geotechnical Regions of the Niger Delta as adopted in the Study ... 178

Table 5.7: Geo-Classification of LGA’s in the Niger Delta ... 178

Table 5.8: Percentage Cost Overruns in the Geo-Zones ... 179

Table 5.9: Test of Homogeneity of Variances ... 180

Table 5.10: Descriptives for Cost Overruns in Geo-Zones ... 181

Table 5.11: Descriptive Summary Measures before and after Log Transformation ... 182

Table 5.12: ANOVA Analysis Output for Log Cost overrun ... 182

Table 5.13: Multiple Comparisons of Log-cost overrun using Tukey HSD ... 183

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Table 5.16: The AASHTO Classification System ... 187

Table 5. 17: AASHTO and USC Description of Subgrade Soils at Project Locations ... 188

Table 5.18: Geotechnical Index Properties of Soils at Project Locations ... 190

Table 5.19: Correlation Geotechnical Variables versus Cost Overrun ... 192

Table 6.1: Empirical Studies Identifying Ground Related Cost Overrun factors ... 198

Table 6.2: Geotechnically induced Cost Overrun Drivers in Highway Projects ... 203

Table 6.3: Conceptual Costing Trends in Highway Agencies ... 205

Table 6.4: AACE Best Practice Cost Estimation Standard ... 207

Table 6.4: Risk Allocation Matrix for Highway Projects ... 217

Table 6.5: Geotechnical Input Approaches in DB Contractor Selection ... 225

Table 7.1: NDDC States and Volume of Infrastructure executed from 2000-2005 ... 235

Table 7.2: Local Government Areas in Rivers State ... 241

Table 7.3: Interview Response Rate... 248

Table 7.4: Respondents’ Affiliations,Years of Experience and Qualfications ... 248

Table 7.5: Anonymous Reference Codes for Respondents ... 252

Table 7.6: Qualitative Analytic Procedure used in this Thesis ... 254

Table 6.6: Structure of A priori Themes in Template as linked to Interview Questions ... 257

Table 8.1: An Extract of Community Projects Currently Delayed and Abandoned by HA1 ... 297

Table 8.2: Highway Projects Executed by HA2... 298

Table 8.3: Extract of Completed and Ongoing Road Projects Awarded by HA3 in 2012 ... 299

Table 8.4: Assessment of Level of Geotechnical Input in Highway Projects ... 302

Table 9.1: Levels of GI in Major and Community Projects Executed by HA1... 322

Table 9.2: Levels of GI in Major and Community Projects executed by HA2 ... 323

Table 9.3: Levels of GI in Major and Community Projects executed by HA3 ... 324

Table 9.4: Projects Executed by HA2 in Different Upland and Riverine Locations ... 324

Table 9.5: Cost Overrun Drivers inferred from the Deductive and Inductive Analysis ... 335

Table 10.1: Variables Entered/Removed... 342

Table 10.2: Collinearity Diagnostic for Geotechnical Index Variables ... 342

Table 10.3: Model Summary ... 342

Table 10.4: ANOVAOutput ... 343

Table 10.5: Residuals Statisticsa_{... 343}

Table 10.6: Model Summary Regression Re-run ... 344

Table 10.7: Residual Statistics ... 345

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Table 10.8: Studentized Deleted Residuals Statistics ... 346

Table 10.9: Initial and Fitted Regression Model ... 348

Table 10.10: Correlation Matrix of Geotechnical Variables. ... 348

Table 10.11: PCA output for Total Variance Explained ... 350

Table 10.12: Loadings of Principal Components ... 350

Table 10.14: Rotated Component Matrix... 351

Table 10.15: Alternative Regression Models after Collinearity Diagnostic ... 352

Table 10.16: Unfitted and Fitted Initial Models ... 352

Table 10.17: ANOVAa_{... 352}

Table 10.18: Regression Coefficients ... 353

Table 10.18: Regression of Cost overrun Vs Geo-zone ... 354

Table 10.18: ANOVAOutput for Regression of Cost overrun Vs Geo-zone... 354

Table 10.21: Model Summary for Cost Overrun Vs Geotechnical Variables... 355

Table 10.22: Levels of GI in Sampled Highway Projects ... 356

Table 10.23: Regression Coefficients for Final Regression Model ... 358

Table 10.24: Final Model Summary ... 359

Table 10.25: ANOVA Output for Final Model ... 359

Table 10: 26: Optimised Explanatory Power of the Cost Overrun Model ... 360

Table 10.27: Zero Order and Partial Correlation Coefficients ... 361

Table 10.28: Barriers to Geotechnical Input as Complementary Cost Overrun Drivers ... 364

Table 10.29: Content Analysis of Emergent Themes ... 365

Table 10.30: Colour Coded List of Emergent Themes as Barriers to Geotechnical Input. ... 366

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Acknowledgement

I would like to acknowledge all persons who have directly and indirectly contributed to the successful completion of this study.

I would like to acknowledge the effort of my supervisor, Dr Anthony Higham, for his academic guidance and moral support, throughout the writing of this thesis. His critical and articulate guidance during the past year and half, has contributed immensely to developing my skills as a researcher. I would also like to express my sincere gratitude to Professor D. Eaton, for his tireless effort at initially moulding my research skills, during the first year of conducting this study.

I would also like to thank all those who have aided in the data collection process during the field work, and the School of the Built Environment, for providing a conducive learning environment for the conduct of this study. I also acknowledge the Rivers State University of Science and Technology, Port Harcourt, on whose platform, I was granted leave to pursue this degree.

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Dedication

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Declaration

The work presented in this thesis titled "Explaining Cost Overruns in Highway Projects: A Geo-Spatial Regression Modelling and Cognitive Mapping of Latent Pathogens and Contextual Drivers", is to the best of the researcher’s knowledge and belief, original. I hereby faithfully declare that this thesis is my own work and effort, and has never been previously written by another person, published or submitted for the award of any academic degree, excluding where due acknowledgements has been made in this thesis text.

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Publications and Presentations

Amadi, A.I. and Eaton, D. (2015). Accuracy of Estimates in the Development Phases of Highway Projects: What Critical Cost Overrun Phase? Proceedings of the 12th International Postgraduate Research Conference (IPGRC15), School of the Built Environment, at the University of Salford, Media City, UK.

Amadi, A.I. and Eaton, D. (2015). Potentials for Added Value in Highway Investments Predicated on Ground Condition in the Niger Delta. What Critical Cost Overrun Phase? Proceedings of the 12th International Postgraduate Research Conference (IPGRC15), School of the Built Environment, at the University of Salford, Media City, UK.

Amadi, A.I. and Higham, A. (2015). Current State of Conceptual Estimating Practice: A proposed Alternative Methodology predicated on Geotechnical Input. 8th Manchester Metropolitan University. Postgraduate Research Conference. MMU Business School, UK.

A

madi, A.I. (2016). Proposing an Engineering Geologic Mapping Based Costing Prototype: Towards a Change from Traditional Highway Costing Practices. Salford Postgraduate Annual Research Conference .14-16 June 2016. Media City. UK.

Amadi, A.I. (2016). Exploring Geologic-Cost factors in flood prone Housing construction in Coastal Communities of the Niger Delta. Proceedings of the CHOBE/ARCOM Doctoral Workshop.

Going North for Sustainability Doctoral Workshop. 30th_{June 2016. London South Bank}

University, London.

Amadi, A. I and Higham, A. (2016) Geotechnical Characterization of Cost Overrun Drivers in Highway Projects: Predicated on Heterogeneous Ground Conditions in the Niger Delta Region of Nigeria. In: PW Chan and C J Neilson (Eds.) Proceedings of the 32nd_{Annual ARCOM}

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List of Abbreviations

AACE Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering ACEC American Council of Engineering Companies

ADB African Development Bank

AICD African Infrastructure Country Diagnostic ADOT Alabama State Department of Transportation ASCE American Society of Civil Engineers Institute

AASHTO American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials BBC British Broadcasting Corporation

BMWT Bayelsa State Ministry of Works and Transport BSCL Brown Sandy Clay Loam

CAQDAS Computer Aided Qualitative Data Analysis Software CBN Central Bank of Nigeria

CEVP Cost Estimate Validation Process CIOB Chartered Institute of Building CBR California Bearing Ratio CBR Case based reasoning

CDOT California Department of Transport DSC Differing Site Condition Clause DBB Design-Bid-Build

DB Design and Build

DFID Department for International Development DOT Department of Transportation

DOE Department of Energy DOPC Dark Organic Peaty Clay

DETR Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions DMRB Design Manual for Roads and Bridges

EDF Executive Director Finance EDP Executive Director Projects

EJCDC Engineers Joint Contract Documents Committee FHWA Federal Highway Administration

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FIDIC International Federation of Consulting Engineers FS Free Swell

GAO Government Accountability Office GI Geotechnical Input

GIR Ground Investigation Report

GCC Government General Conditions of Contract JCT Joint Contract Tribunal

IDOT Illinois Department of Transportation IRG Infrastructure Risk Group

IGST Institute of Geosciences and Space Technology. ICE Institution of Civil Engineers

LL Liquid Limit

LGFSC Light Grey Fine Sand and Clay MDD Maximum Dry Density

NAO National Audit Office

NEDO National Economic Development Office

NHCRP National Highway Cooperative Research Program NBRRI Nigerian Building and Road Research Institute NDES Niger Delta Environmental Survey.

NRDMP Niger Delta Regional Development Master Plan NCE New Civil Engineer

NDDC Niger Delta Development Commission OMC Optimum Moisture Content

NSE Nigeria Society of Engineers

PPAC Presidential Projects Assessment Committee RMW Rivers State: Ministry of Works

TRL Transport Research Laboratory

TRRL Transportation and Road Research laboratory UNDP United Nations Development Programme. USDOT United States Department of Transportation USIP United States Institute of Peace

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GDP Gross Domestic Product

OMPADEC Oil Mineral Producing Areas Development Commission PI Plasticity Index

PL Plastic Limit

PTF Presidential Task Force

SPDC Shell Petroleum Development Company UAE United Arab Emirates

RBSCL Reddish Brown Sandy Clay Loam USCS Unified Soil Classification System WisDOT Wisconsin Department of Transportation VDOT Virginia Department of Transport LWD Length Width Depth

WBS Work Breakdown Structure NEC New Engineering Contract

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Abstract

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Chapter 1 Introduction

1.1 Background to the Study

The cost performance of construction projects is emphasized by Baccarani (2004), as a key success criterion for project sponsors, against the background that construction projects are known for running over budget estimates. Inaccuracy in projected cost estimates, under conditions of uncertainty, typically expressed as cost overruns, is an issue of primary concern for clients, project managers, contractors, and all other stakeholders in construction works (National Highway Cooperative Research Program, 2004; Georgia Department of Transportation, 2007). Cost overrun is measured as actual out-turn costs, minus estimated costs, as a percentage of estimated costs (Cantarelli et al., 2010:6). The negative consequences of cost overruns in highway projects has led some to question the efficiency of public highway commissioners, through the developed and developing world, leading to questions about the ability of such organisations to initiate and deliver highway infrastructure projects. The phenomenon of cost overruns in highway projects has consequently attracted profuse scholarly attention over time, from researchers: Wachs (1989); Mackie and Preston (1998); Bruzelius et al. (2002); Flyvbjerg et al. (2002); Anderson et al. (2006), as well as numerous other recent works, who have led the discussion of the factors accounting for cost overruns in transportation projects.

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[image:30.595.118.494.73.314.2]

Figure 1.1: Map of Niger Delta Showing Heterogeneous Terrain

(Niger Delta Home Page, 2015)

This implies that any form of construction work in this heterogeneous terrain will invariably encounter distinct technical and financial connotations (Oguara, 2002; Youdoewei, 2013; Ngerebara et al., 2014). Consequently, Oguara (2002) stressed that road development in some areas would require expensive specification, designs and specialized construction methods to account for this environmental configuration. Cost projection for road development by highway agencies in the region, implies a need to reflect these ground related factors during estimate preparation (Youdoewei, 2013; Ngerebara et al., 2014).

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potential avenues of avoidable cost overruns due to ground conditions, from a scholarly perspective, to close this gap in existing knowledge, whilst also contributing to existing practice in the region by providing a road map to improvements in the financial management of highway infrastructure projects.

The need for the study is evident, against the backdrop of the literature on geotechnical best practices, which shows that geotechnical input should form a fundamental basis on which highway project designs and estimates, be predicated throughout the phases of project development, in order to minimise cost overruns (Nicholson, et al., 1976; ICE, 1999; Venmans, 2006). The Institution of Civil Engineers (1999) advised that project developers should assess ‘what is known and unknown about a site’, and ‘what needs to be known’, via ground investigations, before initiating highway projects to avert cost overruns due to unforeseen ground conditions. Empirical studies, evaluating cost overrun trends and variation orders in completed highway projects, are convergent in stating that ground conditions, ranks high amongst the technical risk leading to underestimation/cost overruns in highway projects (NEDO, 1983; ICE, 1991; Peacock, and Whyte, 1992; NAO, 1994; Isakson, 2002).

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overcome. This is necessary if these organisations are to generate conceptual estimates that are better aligned with later detailed estimates, tender estimates and final accounts for projects.

At the detailed design phase, comprehensive and adequate ground investigations have been recommended as best practice by the ICE (1999). With the ICE (1999), asserting that ground investigations must be conducted as operations of discovery, which are a fundamental prerequisite, to ensuring subsoil conditions are fully reflected in designs and contract cost predictions. Literature abounds which covers a wide range of the links between lack of site investigation, and unexpected costs that can occur thereof (Clark, 1998; Peacock, and Whyte, 1992; Clayton, 1996; Ashton and Gidado, 2002; Isakson, 2002; Gransberg and Gad, 2014). Clark (1998) used case histories to investigate how construction works commencing in the absence of desk studies, and based on minimal ground investigation can lead to costs that could be saved if ground conditions had been properly investigated and formed the basis for both engineering designs and cost analysis. This assertion was also reinforced by Clayton (1996), who used project data to show a very high degree of correlation, between expenditure on ground investigations and cost overruns. Finally, Oguara (2002) opined that inherent to recognising the significant geotechnical challenges in the terrain of the Niger Delta, it would be logical that emphasis be placed on adequately investigating ground conditions, prior to designs, by highway agencies in the region. This was suggested as a primary step in resolving the issues associated with the infrastructure backlog, project abandonments and incessant road failures.

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As best practice, documented in the literature evidences, it can be deduced that various potential avenues for ensuring geotechnical input, necessary to minimise cost overruns, and as mechanisms of adding value for money invested on highway development in the Niger Delta, exists at:

 The preliminary estimating phase (conceptual cost forecasts);  The design stage (appropriate designs);

 The tendering and contracting phase (in terms of risk containment).

Yet, the literature continues to report inadequate use of geotechnical risk containment in highway projects, resulting in considerable post-contract cost overruns. As a result of this confusion within the existing literature, and the lack of a robust empirical analysis to this effect, this study resolved to explore the statistical validity of these geotechnical risk factors in explaining cost overruns in highway projects, contextualised in the geologic setting of the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. It is the researcher’s belief that the Niger Delta region of Nigeria, by virtue of its terrain, is an embodiment of a geologic setting representative of the intricacies of geotechnical risk, and what it foreshadows for the financial management of highway projects. The Niger Delta is thus used as a test bed for empirical verification in this study. The ultimate cost efficiency of highway project delivery in the Niger Delta, is thus hypothesized to be highly predicated on the approach adopted to managing the financial risks inherent in the deltaic ground conditions of the region.

1.2 Statement of the Problem

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Figure 1.2: Typical Transportation Mode in the Meander Belts of the Niger Delta

(Africa Check Home Page, 2014)

However, despite the environmental handicaps of the region, in recent times there has been a renewed drive to open up and link these remote areas of the Niger Delta to foster their economic development (NDDC, 2013). Consequently, a multiplicity of roads is being constructed concurrently across the Niger Delta by the various highway agencies in the region.

1.2.1 The Facts and Figures

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Figure 1.3: Degenerating Uncompleted and Abandoned Road Projects in the Niger Delta

Onokola (2012), noted the tedium associated with the disruption of economic activities, as the mobility of products and services such as farm produce from rural to urban centres, are stalled. The Central Bank of Nigeria (2013), estimated the annual financial loss due to the incompletion and abandonment of road projects, at approximately N80 billion ($533 million), with resultant additional vehicle operating costs of a further N53.8 billion ($360 million), cumulating in an approximate total loss per annum of N133.8 billion ($893 million). This figure, according to the CBN (2013) is exclusive of the associated man-hour losses in traffic, psychological and physical trauma undergone in plying such roads, and other multiplier negative impacts on economic productivity.

Okon (2009) determined the total length of roads, along with the number of other infrastructure projects initiated by the Niger Delta Development Commission’s (NDDC), a regional highway development agency in the region, between 2001 – 2008. Additionally, Okon (2009) established the actual number of projects or kilometres of road completed over this time period. This data, presented in Table 1.1, illustrates the failure of highway agencies, such as the NDDC, to deliver these major infrastructure projects. For instance, the data evidences that only 28% of commissioned water supply and 42% of electrification projects actually achieved completion between 2001 and 2008.

Table 1.1 Infrastructure Backlog of Uncompleted Projects in the Niger Delta (2001 – 2008) Infrastructure type Total no. Initiated Completed Percentage

Completed Roads 156 (3,000Km) 780 Km 26

Bridges 47 - 0

Water Supply 283 78 28

Electrification 316 137 42

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A different study by Goddey (2011), also reported the number of infrastructure projects executed by the NDDC over the same time frame, as shown in Table 1.2.

Table 1.2: Number of Physical Projects Executed by the NDDC (2001 – 2008)

(Source: Goddey, 2011)

The researcher notes that there are discrepancies in the number of completed projects reported in the two studies, for similar types of work, with by Goddey (2011) reporting lower completion rates that those determined by Okon (2009). Yet it is also worthy of note that Goddey (2011) did not show the number of roads initiated relative to those completed, which has prevented the researcher determining the overall accuracy of Goddey’s figures. However, from Okon’s analysis it is clear, only 26% of the commissioned roads in this period have been completed. This dismal completion rate, further reinforced in a recent independent European Union (2011) evaluation of infrastructure projects in the Niger Delta region, again revealed a significant number of road projects in the region remain incomplete and abandoned by various tiers of government (Federal, State, and Local Government). An extract from the EU report is shown in Table 1.3.

Table1.3: Abandoned and Uncompleted Road Projects in the Niger Delta (2000-2011) Communities Assessed Federal Govt NDDC State Govt Local Govt BAYELSA STATE Kolokuma / LGA

(10 communities) 14 0 16 1

BAYELSA STATE / Sagbama LGA

(10 communities) 12 4 18 3

RIVERS STATE / Obio-Akpor LGA

(6 communities) 3 7 13 1

RIVERS STATE / Ahoada East LGA (9 communities)

2 0 9 3

TOTAL 31 13 56 8

(Source: EU Report, 2011)

Despite the abysmal completion rates for road construction projects in the Niger Delta region, as Falade (2016) discovered, completion does not always indicate success. With most, if not all, completed highway projects recording exceedingly high cost overrun figures, a concern currently

Projects Number Completed

Water 22

Electrification 12

Jetties 6

Road/Bridges 37

Canalisation 1

Shore protection 2

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being investigated by the Nigerian Senate. In 2012, a Presidential Projects Assessment Committee (PPAC) was set up, which showed that between 2005 and 2011, 609 projects were initiated in the region of which 222 (37%) have been completed, 102 (16%) are on-going and 285 (47%) have been abandoned. The report thus showed the abysmal performance of the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC) since inception in 2001. The report further highlighted: “…the unjustifiable introduction of astronomical variations on the contracts sum of most projects over short periods of time, with some of these variations effected prior to project commencement” (PPAC, 2012:13).

1.2.2 The Perceived Underlying Issues/ Need for the Study

Whilst these statistics may be giving an impression of complacency or corruption on the part of the highway agencies in the Niger Delta, adverse ground conditions in the region have been repeatedly identified by the highway agencies as the explanation behind these extreme cost escalations. Okon (2009) had quoted cost overrun figures as high as 500% associated with some of the completed highway projects in the Niger Delta region, and attributed this to the various geologic environments in the region, which bears significantly higher risks than other parts of Nigeria. Joseph (2012), as well as Ihuah and Benibo (2014) have equally corroborated this stance in empirical studies investigating the causes of project cost overruns, delays and abandonments in the Niger Delta region. Vulnerability to ravaging environmental (flood and erosion) related disaster; adverse weather conditions; inaccessible and geo-hazardous impassable wetland terrain, were some of the distinct attributes of the region, cited as responsible for the current state of highway project delivery.

However, several other empirical studies in the local literature (Mansfield et al., 1994; Okpala and Aniekwu, 1998; Ajibade and Odeyinka, 2006), have consistently identified issues related to lack of geotechnical best practices, such as: weak and insufficient technical studies and preliminary engineering, design and specification deficiencies as well as inaccurate budgetary and engineering design estimates as contributing to the high spate of project delays and abandonment in Nigeria.

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failure in the region (Ajayi, 1987; Abam, 2005; Aigbedion, 2007; Emujakporue, 2012), although beyond the scope of this research. Sunjka and Jacob (2013), in a study investigating the causes of project delays in the Niger Delta, revealed changes in specifications and designs which were not considered originally, have impeded the time effective delivery of road works in the region, further reinforcing the researcher’s perception. It was suggested:

“Improper design stalls project execution in the Niger Delta because of the time it takes for such design to be reviewed, amended and accepted for construction works” (Sunjka and Jacob, 2013: 641).

Validation of this assertion will thus be inferred in relation to the stipulated highway standard, recommended by the Federal Government for the construction of highways in Nigeria. The Transportation and Road Research Laboratory (TRRL, 1993) Overseas Road Note 31 guide, sets out a catalogue of design configurations suitable for the various subgrade soils inherent in the tropical setting of Nigeria. The application and level of adherence to this standard by highway agencies in the Niger Delta, which should logically be based on adequate ground investigation as a pre-requisite for detailed designs and costing for proposed roads, however is not known. This is therefore investigated as part of the field work.

Claims and variations arising during construction phase for road works in the Niger Delta region have also been mostly linked to ground conditions in the literature, which have invariably negatively impacted on both project duration and cost (Dlakwa and Culpin, 1990; Sunjka and Jacob, 2013). This is particularly the case in the coastal and meander zones of the Niger Delta which currently has a significant infrastructure backlog (EU Report, 2011; Ngerebara et al., 2014). Literature and physical evidence show that there exists a rather significant spate of extensive project delays and abandonment in these areas, which has retarded the economic development of the local riverine communities to be serviced by such roads (Ossai, 2012).

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This was further reinforced by the World Bank’s (2000), in a Country Procurement Assessment Report (CPAR) for Nigeria. Collectively these studies assert that there exists a need to align best practice into highway project delivery in the region.

As a result of the extensive local literature supporting the link between geology, the lack of geotechnical best practices, and cost and time overruns, it can be argued that in the context of the Niger Delta, the prevalence of the outlined ground related issues in practice, would culminate in a significant disparity between initial budgeted estimates, design estimates, and tender estimates in relation to final cost. As the ICE (1991:12) succinctly enunciates: “The ground is a place where things are likely to go wrong, the worst the ground, the higher the risk”

1.3 Suspected Gaps in the Practices of the Highway Agencies

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Based on the perceived discrepancies in the theoretical and practical approach to the containment of associated ground related risks in cost estimates, several “geotechnical cost drivers” have been identified, and constitutes the rationale of the study. The researcher has thus identified the following gaps in knowledge, suspected as existing in the practice of the highway agencies that need to be verified and addressed, as the primary cost overrun drivers contributing significantly to spate of project delays and abandonment in the geologic context of the Niger Delta.

Table 1.4: Identified Cost Drivers/Potentials for Added Value in Highway Investment

Project Phase Suspected Gaps in Knowledge Potential for Added Value

Conceptual Phase Use of non-differentiated/uniform cost per kilometre of road length estimate that is not reflective of the typically heterogeneous ground profile.

Improved Accuracy of budget Estimates

Design Phase Adequacy of ground investigations prior to highway design and detailed estimate preparation;

Non-Adherence of pavement designs to the adopted National Highway Standard (TRRL, 1993) in relation to sub-soils.

More Appropriate Designs and Accurate Pre-Bid Estimates

Tendering and

Contracting Phase Non-inclusion of GIR and DSC clauses in contract documentation;

Inadequate geotechnical criteria in contractor selection

Better Risk Containment in Tender Estimates, which minimises claims and variations.

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Verification of these suspected gaps in knowledge, summarised in Table 1.4, which principally revolve around subsoil conditions of the Niger Delta region and relevant geotechnical practices, constitute the rationale of the study. In view of the current state of highway project delivery in the Niger Delta, these are thus presupposed as being the more profound technical factors, underlying the significant cost escalations, that need to be investigated. Scrutinising the practises of the highway agencies, therefore constitutes a first step, towards understanding the propagation of significant cost overruns in the Niger Delta, against the backdrop of the virtually non-existent literature, on the estimating and design practices specific to these highway agencies. Filling this identified gap in the local literature, thus establishes the central theme of the subsequent field work, necessary to provide a descriptive account of current practice, relative to the dictates of geotechnical best practice, to serve as a platform to evaluate the need for improvement.

1.4 Aim and Objectives of the Study

The aim of the study is to explain the propagation of cost overruns in highway projects using a geotechnical narrative predicated on the financial risk implications of the heterogeneous geology of the Niger Delta wetland. Specifically, the study has the following objectives:

1. To synthesize the background literature on investment in highway development in Nigeria, and the prevalence of delays and abandonment in project delivery, with emphasis on the Niger Delta region due to its peculiar geologic setting.

2. To critically evaluate the theoretical and methodological lenses that have been used in previous studies, to explain the propagation of cost overruns in highway projects, as a platform for highlighting significant gaps which have implications for this study.

3. To critically evaluate and select an adequate philosophical/methodological orientation relevant to provide rich insights into the phenomena of cost overruns in highway projects executed in the Niger Delta.

4. To analyse the geotechnical characteristics of the heterogeneous configuration of the Niger Delta terrain, to highlight its inherent peculiarity for triggering cost overruns.

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6. To examine the level of adherence/deviations in the practices of highway agencies in the Niger Delta, in line with the precepts of geotechnical best practice.

7. To develop a statistically valid model and cognitive map of deduced geotechnical pathogens, predicted on the heterogeneous geologic configuration of the Niger Delta region, to account for the level of variance induced in cost overruns.

1.5 Research Questions

1. What is the background to Nigeria’s investment in highway development, and what are the peculiarities associated with the geologic setting of the Niger Delta region, that account for the prevalence of delays and abandonment in project delivery?

2. What theoretical and methodological lenses have been used to explain the propagation of cost overruns in highway projects in previous studies, to serve as a platform for highlighting significant gaps, which have implications for this study.

3. What philosophical/methodological orientation is relevant to provide rich insights into the phenomena of cost overruns in highway projects executed in the Niger Delta?

4. What peculiar geotechnical characteristics of the heterogeneous Niger Delta terrain inherently compounds the propensity of highway projects to run over budget?

5. What shortcomings in geotechnical practice, can potentially trigger cost overruns in highway projects?

6. To what extent have the highway agencies in the Niger Delta region adhered to /deviated from relevant geotechnical best practices?

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1.6 Methods, Research Design, and Outline Structure of the Thesis

The research objectives, designed to provide answers to the research questions are achieved using a multi-method mix of geo-spatial, qualitative and quantitative methods/approaches outlined in Table 1.5.

Table1.5: Approach to Achieving Research Objectives/Answer Research Questions Research Objectives/Questions Method/Approach

To synthesize the background literature on investment in highway development in Nigeria and the prevalence of delays and abandonment in project delivery with emphasis on the Niger Delta region due to its peculiar geologic setting. (Q1)

Literature Review (Descriptive/Explanatory)

To critically evaluate the theoretical and methodological lenses that have been used in previous studies to explain the propagation of cost overruns in highway projects, as a platform for highlighting significant gaps which have implications for this study. (Q2)

Theoretical Literature Review (Critical Analysis)

To critically evaluate and select an adequate philosophical/methodological orientation relevant to provide rich insights into the phenomena of cost overruns in highway projects executed in the Niger Delta. (Q3)

Review of literature on Methodology (Critical Evaluation)

To analyse the heterogeneous configuration of the Niger Delta terrain, and the peculiar practicalities necessary for highway construction, as a case study justification of its inherent geologic distinctiveness for triggering cost overruns. (Q4)

Geologic Literature Vs Field Work Analysis:

(Geo-spatial Statistical Analysis)

To identify the specific mediums of financial risk containment of geologic risks, from best practice, which emphasize the need for adequate geotechnical input in highway projects, as potential triggers to cost overruns (Q5).

Literature on Best Practices (Exploratory)

To examine the level of adherence/deviations in the design/costing practices of highway agencies in the Niger Delta, in line with the precepts of the identified geotechnical best practices, as a basis of ascertaining the suspected gaps in knowledge presupposed as the underlying cost overrun drivers. (Q6)

(Deductive) Interview Analysis (Thematic Analysis)

To develop a statistically valid model and cognitive map of geotechnical best practice based drivers to cost overruns, predicted on the heterogeneous geologic configuration of the Niger Delta region, as basis of accounting for the level of variance induced by geotechnical triggers. Q7)

Regression Analysis, Content Analysis and Cognitive Mapping

(Data Triangulation)

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Figure1.4: Conceptual Mind Map of the Research Design

Le ad out Le ad in C or e

Background literature on highway Investment in the study area

Theoretical and Technical Literature Explanations on Cost Overrun

Exploratory Geostatistical Analysis: Geo-spatial Vs Cost-overrun Data for highway projects in the Niger Delta

Levels of Geotechnical Input (GI)

Latent Geologic Cost Overrun Drivers

Interplay of Latent Geologic/Geotechnical Pathogens with Emergent Organisational, Socio-Cultural, Skills Gap and Psychological

Barriers to Geotechnical Input

Historical Antecedents to Highway Investment Failures in Nigeria, and Technical Peculiarities to Cost Overruns in the Niger Delta Region

Dialectical Debates in the Literature outlined, and Methodological Shortcomings Identified

Geologic Triggers to Cost Overruns in Highway Projects executed in the Heterogeneous Ground Conditions of the Niger Delta Statistically Explained

Explained Variation: Regression Modelling of Levels of GI

in projects and Latent Geologic Cost-Overrun Drivers in the Niger

Delta Theoretical Framework/Gaps in the Literature Explanations to Cost-Overruns D at a Tr ian gu lat io n

Unexplained Variation:

Content Analysis of Contextual Triggers to Cost Overruns in Highway

Projects Latent Geologically Induced Cost Overrun Drivers Optimised Explanatory Model

of Cost Overruns Drivers

Cognitive Map of Variables Inducing

Cost Growth in Highway Projects in

the Niger Delta

Best Practice Based Geotechnical Triggers to Cost Overruns in Highway Projects identified and used to develop interview template

Conceptual Model of Geotechnical

Drivers to Cost Overruns

Exploratory Geotechnical Literature Review: Identify Geotechnical Best

Practices

Deductive Interview Analysis: Cost Overrun Drivers in Geotechnical Practice

Levels of Geotechnical Input in Project Designs and Costing deduced from Practices of Highway Organisations.

Thematic Analysis of Levels of Geotechnical Input

in Project Phases

Reflexive Inductive Interview Analysis: Emergent Barriers to

Geotechnical Input

Emergent Organisational, Socio-Cultural, Skills and Psychological Barriers to geotechnical Input

Thematic Analysis of Emergent Barriers to Geotechnical Input

Emergent Contextual Barriers

Background Rationale of the

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An inductive thematic analysis of emergent barriers, beyond the initial aim of the study, was thus carried out to incorporate the unanticipated social constructs, as part of the research findings. As shown in the research design, the findings from the initial analysis: the exploratory geo-statistical analysis of cost overrun data versus geotechnical index variables, and the deductive thematic analysis of geotechnical themes from the interviews were triangulated using regression analysis to explain the variance in cost overruns explained. The unexplained variation due to the emergent themes were further analysed using content analysis to proportionally assign weightings, as basis of cognitive mapping. The outcomes of the study, were a log-linear regression model of geotechnical pathogens, and a visual conceptual projection of the interplay between the geotechnical and emergent socio-constructs, through the pre and post contract phases of highway projects in the Niger Delta. The chapters of the thesis as shown in Figure 1.5 were thus structured in response to this reflexive adaptation of the research design.

Figure 1.5: Thesis Structure