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Wangari Maathai Memorial Lecture Micro Business College, Ambo

Challenge of the Balance: A 21

st

Century Challenge of the Balance: A 21 Century 

narrative on Environment and  Development

Development

Chandra Bhushan, Chandra Bhushan, 

Deputy Director General

(2)

Anthropocene Epoch

ƒ Anthropocene period – humans are changing the  planet

ƒ Research published from University College of p y g London & Leeds University puts 1610 as the the  date of start of Anthropocene – a century after  Columbus found Americas and Europeans started  colonising.  

(3)

Orbis Spike & Little Ice Age

(4)

Cyclone Pam & global warming

ƒ Destroyed Vanuatu

ƒ 90% of housing in Vanuatu’s capital, Port Vila,  badly damaged by winds of up to 250km/hy g y p /

ƒ Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines to the recent  floods in Malawi to unseasonal rainfall and

floods in Malawi to unseasonal rainfall and 

hailstorms in India, extreme weather events are  hitting the poorest of the world.

hitting the poorest of the world. 

(5)

1. Humans are changing climate  systems

systems

ƒ Recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse  gases are highest in history

ƒ The atmospheric concentration of key p y

greenhouse gases is “unprecedented” in at least  the last 800,000 years,

ƒ Warming of climate system is unequivocal

(6)

Increasing emissions

Increasing emissions   

(7)

Rising concentration: 400 ppm CO

2

Since 1750 Since 1750, 

concentrations  of CO2, CH4 and of CO2, CH4 and  N2O have 

increased by y 40%, 150% and  20%, 

respectively 

(8)

Temperature:  0.85

O

C over 1880‐2012; 

last 3 decades warmest

last 3 decades warmest

(9)

2. Impacts are unprecedented

Since 1950s many of the observed changes are 

d t d d d t ill i

unprecedented over decades to millennia

oMany terrestrial, freshwater, and marine species  h t t d t “ d t” ( hift d th i hi

have started to “adapt” (shifted their geographic 

ranges, seasonal activities, migration patterns etc.) in  response to ongoing climate change

response to ongoing climate change

(10)

Sea level rise: Over 1901–2010 by 0.19 m

Global averaged sea‐level rise was 1.7 mm/yr between  /

1901‐ 2010 and 3.2 mm/yr between 1993‐ 2010 

(11)

Acidity of the Oceans is increasing

Since the  industrial 

l i h

revolution, the  ocean has 

become 26 become 26  percent more  acidic and its pH acidic and its pH  level is falling

(12)

Shrinking Arctic Ice: 0.73‐1.07 million  km

2

per decade since 1979

km

2

per decade since 1979

Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been losing  mass. Glaciers have continued to shrink worldwide

(13)

Extreme weather events are  increasing

increasing

(14)

3. Poor countries and poor  communities suffered most communities suffered most

o Climate change has started to erode 

“developmental” gains

o Between 2001 and 2006 low income countries lost  about 0.3% GDP due to extreme events; developed  nations lost only about 0.1%. Rapidly developing 

i I di d Chi l b 1% f h i

countries, India and China, lost about 1% of their  GDP

l h h l d ff d h

o Climate change has already affected the 

hydrological systems in many countries and 

d d i ld

reduced crop yields

(15)

4. Impacts are going to get worse 

o Surface temperature is projected to rise over the  21st century under all scenarios. 

o Heat waves will occur more often and last longer o Extreme precipitation events will become more 

intense and frequent in many regions. 

o Ocean will continue to warm and acidify, and  global mean sea level to rise.

o Increasing magnitudes of warming increase the 

(16)

Severe, pervasive, and irreversible  impacts

impacts

(17)

The Climate Challenge: Global 2

O

pathways

pathways

(18)

With limits to technology

Emission (E) = Population (P) x Consumption (C) x  Emission intensity of Technology(T)

Emission intensity of Technology(T)

(19)

The Technology Conundrum

Emission (E) = Population (P) x Consumption (C) x  Emission intensity of Technology(T)

Emission intensity of Technology(T)

P2050 = 1.67 P2000 ( 6 billion to 10 billion)

(20)

The Technology Conundrum

Emission (E) = Population (P) x Consumption (C) x  Emission intensity of Technology(T)

Emission intensity of Technology(T)

P2050 = 1.67 P2000 ( 6 billion to 10 billion)

C2050 = 4 C2000 (2‐3% annual increase)

(21)

The Technology Conundrum

Emission (E) = Population (P) x Consumption (C) x  Emission intensity of Technology(T)

Emission intensity of Technology(T)

P2050 = 1.67 P2000 ( 6 billion to 10 billion)

C2050 = 4 C2000 (2‐3% annual increase)

EE20502050 = 1/7 E 1/7 E20002000 (85% below 2000 level)(85% below 2000 level)

(22)

The Technology Conundrum

Emission (E) = Population (P) x Consumption (C) x  Emission intensity of Technology(T)

P2050 = 1.67 P2000 ( 6 billion to 10 billion)

C2050 = 4 C2000 (2‐3% annual increase)

E2050 = 1/7 E2000 (85% below 2000 level)

T

2050

= 1/47 T

2000 

(7.5%/yr. improvement)

(23)

Efficiency is not sufficiency

(24)

The true climate challenge

(25)

The Development Challenges

2 billion people without access to clean cooking  f l

fuels

More than 1.5 billion people without electricity

More than 1 billion have no access to clean water

About 800 million people chronicallyAbout 800 million people chronically  undernourished 

2 million children die every year from diarrhea

2 million children die every year from diarrhea

30,000 deaths each day from preventable diseases

(26)

In a world with rising inequality

(27)

In a truly unequal world

In 2016, for the first time in human history 1% 

people will own more wealth than remaining 99%

people will own more wealth than remaining 99%

Inequality rising everywhere

Poorest half of population in both developed and  developing world controls less than 10% of wealth

Income inequality equals inequality of opportunity  and extends to gender, ethnicity, disability, and 

age.

(28)

Recap

We are changing the climatic system with disastrous  results for the poor and the ecosystem

results for the poor and the ecosystem

Climate change is eroding development gains

Urgent action required to reduce emissions to keep  global temperature rise below 2OC.

Technology alone can not reduce emissions 

20% of the world consumes 80% of resources

Large parts of the world is “under developed” and a  large part of humanity is poor and yet to start

large part of humanity is poor and yet to start  consuming

(29)

Flawed economic model

Current growth model; highly capital, resource and  pollution intensive

pollution intensive

Small populations; use disproportionate share of 

t h ll ti i t i

resources; create huge pollution; invest massive 

amounts in containing adverse impacts of growth; but  continue to stay behind the problem

continue to stay behind the problem

Current model of environmental management not  able to contain pollution Current economic model able to contain pollution. Current economic model  not working to meet the needs of all

(30)

A new economic‐environment  model?

model?

How to eradicate poverty?o to e ad cate po e ty?

How to achieve sustainable models of  consumption and production?

consumption and production?

How to provide for development for all in a  carbon‐constrained world?

carbon constrained world? 

How to build resilient economies – especially for  the most vulnerable?

the most vulnerable?

How to get to a green economy?

(31)

Narrative 1: A new economic 

indicator to measure prosperity indicator to measure prosperity

GDP does not provide the right signals for valuing G does ot p o de t e g t s g a s o a u g growth, which is just and sustainable (many 

perverse incentives) p

Bhutan: Gross National Happiness

France: Commission on the Measurement ofFrance: Commission on the Measurement of  economic Performance and Social Progress

Set of indicators to that promotes not growth but

Set of indicators to that promotes not growth but  welfare, inclusive development, equality and 

(32)

Narrative 2: Equal rights & 

entitlement to global commons to all entitlement to global commons to all

Create a global and national framework for equal C eate a g oba a d at o a a e o o equa rights and entitlement to global atmospheric 

space for all, which will in turn build conditions for p limits on consumption and production

Without this framework, it is clear that the world , has no real incentive to move away from its 

current unsustainable economic growth model. 

(33)

Apportioning global commons

(34)

Narrative 3: Build ecological assets & 

the resilience of local ecosystems the resilience of local ecosystems

Availability of water for drinking, irrigation & a ab ty o ate o d g, gat o &

ecosystem will be key for improving livelihoods  and well being of peopleg p p

The way to build a water resilient society is to 

promote community‐owned decentralised water 

p y

management assets; every drop of water is  harvested and recycled and reused.

Global right to work programme (MNREGA in 

India) to build ecological assets – employment & 

resilient ecosystem    

(35)

Narrative 4: Leapfrog the technology  treadmill

treadmill

From fossil fuel and centralised grid to renewable o oss ue a d ce t a sed g d to e e ab e energy and decentralised grid

From resource and energy inefficient buildings andFrom resource and energy inefficient buildings and  cities to sustainable cities and green buildings

From personal mobility to most advanced publicFrom personal mobility to most advanced public  transport

From energy inefficient appliances to most

From energy inefficient appliances to most  efficient gadgets (incandescent to LEDs)

(36)

Narrative 5: From products to  services

services

We need mobility not cars; communication and not  mobile phones; cooling & heating and not air

mobile phones; cooling & heating and not air  conditioners; shelter and not buildings

We need services and not products

We need services and not products

Our businesses, therefore, have to move from selling  products to selling services

products to selling services

Selling products is about selling increasing numbers  each year – this is growth every year – more material each year  this is growth every year  more material  each year – more resource extraction & pollution

Selling services is about saving material – increasing g g g the life of products – less resources

(37)

Narrative 6: From global to local  production & consumption

production & consumption

Direct investment and policy and fiscal incentives ect est e t a d po cy a d sca ce t es for local production and local consumption

High value export‐led, mechanised production andHigh value export led, mechanised production and  consumption gets dollars, taxes and few wealthy  people; not jobs, equality and sustainability

p p ; j , q y y

Localization is the new development paradigm – building local grids, small industries, organic g g , , g

argiculture, smart cities

(38)

Challenge of the balance

•“The world has enough for everyone's need,  but not enough for everyone's greed.” g y g

‐‐‐‐ M.K.Gandhi

References

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