Wangari Maathai Memorial Lecture Micro Business College, Ambo
Challenge of the Balance: A 21
stCentury Challenge of the Balance: A 21 Century
narrative on Environment and Development
Development
Chandra Bhushan, Chandra Bhushan,
Deputy Director General
Anthropocene Epoch
Anthropocene period – humans are changing the planet
Research published from University College of p y g London & Leeds University puts 1610 as the the date of start of Anthropocene – a century after Columbus found Americas and Europeans started colonising.
Orbis Spike & Little Ice Age
Cyclone Pam & global warming
Destroyed Vanuatu
90% of housing in Vanuatu’s capital, Port Vila, badly damaged by winds of up to 250km/hy g y p /
Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines to the recent floods in Malawi to unseasonal rainfall and
floods in Malawi to unseasonal rainfall and
hailstorms in India, extreme weather events are hitting the poorest of the world.
hitting the poorest of the world.
1. Humans are changing climate systems
systems
Recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are highest in history
The atmospheric concentration of key p y
greenhouse gases is “unprecedented” in at least the last 800,000 years,
Warming of climate system is unequivocal
Increasing emissions
Increasing emissions
Rising concentration: 400 ppm CO
2Since 1750 Since 1750,
concentrations of CO2, CH4 and of CO2, CH4 and N2O have
increased by y 40%, 150% and 20%,
respectively
Temperature: 0.85
OC over 1880‐2012;
last 3 decades warmest
last 3 decades warmest
2. Impacts are unprecedented
Since 1950s many of the observed changes are
d t d d d t ill i
unprecedented over decades to millennia
oMany terrestrial, freshwater, and marine species h t t d t “ d t” ( hift d th i hi
have started to “adapt” (shifted their geographic
ranges, seasonal activities, migration patterns etc.) in response to ongoing climate change
response to ongoing climate change
Sea level rise: Over 1901–2010 by 0.19 m
Global averaged sea‐level rise was 1.7 mm/yr between /
1901‐ 2010 and 3.2 mm/yr between 1993‐ 2010
Acidity of the Oceans is increasing
Since the industrial
l i h
revolution, the ocean has
become 26 become 26 percent more acidic and its pH acidic and its pH level is falling
Shrinking Arctic Ice: 0.73‐1.07 million km
2per decade since 1979
km
2per decade since 1979
Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been losing mass. Glaciers have continued to shrink worldwide
Extreme weather events are increasing
increasing
3. Poor countries and poor communities suffered most communities suffered most
o Climate change has started to erode
“developmental” gains
o Between 2001 and 2006 low income countries lost about 0.3% GDP due to extreme events; developed nations lost only about 0.1%. Rapidly developing
i I di d Chi l b 1% f h i
countries, India and China, lost about 1% of their GDP
l h h l d ff d h
o Climate change has already affected the
hydrological systems in many countries and
d d i ld
reduced crop yields
4. Impacts are going to get worse
o Surface temperature is projected to rise over the 21st century under all scenarios.
o Heat waves will occur more often and last longer o Extreme precipitation events will become more
intense and frequent in many regions.
o Ocean will continue to warm and acidify, and global mean sea level to rise.
o Increasing magnitudes of warming increase the
Severe, pervasive, and irreversible impacts
impacts
The Climate Challenge: Global 2
OC pathways
pathways
With limits to technology
•
Emission (E) = Population (P) x Consumption (C) x Emission intensity of Technology(T)Emission intensity of Technology(T)
The Technology Conundrum
•
Emission (E) = Population (P) x Consumption (C) x Emission intensity of Technology(T)Emission intensity of Technology(T)
•
P2050 = 1.67 P2000 ( 6 billion to 10 billion)The Technology Conundrum
•
Emission (E) = Population (P) x Consumption (C) x Emission intensity of Technology(T)Emission intensity of Technology(T)
•
P2050 = 1.67 P2000 ( 6 billion to 10 billion)•
C2050 = 4 C2000 (2‐3% annual increase)The Technology Conundrum
•
Emission (E) = Population (P) x Consumption (C) x Emission intensity of Technology(T)Emission intensity of Technology(T)
•
P2050 = 1.67 P2000 ( 6 billion to 10 billion)•
C2050 = 4 C2000 (2‐3% annual increase)•
EE20502050 = 1/7 E 1/7 E20002000 (85% below 2000 level)(85% below 2000 level)The Technology Conundrum
•
Emission (E) = Population (P) x Consumption (C) x Emission intensity of Technology(T)•
P2050 = 1.67 P2000 ( 6 billion to 10 billion)•
C2050 = 4 C2000 (2‐3% annual increase)•
E2050 = 1/7 E2000 (85% below 2000 level)• T2050 = 1/47 T
2000 (7.5%/yr. improvement)
Efficiency is not sufficiency
The true climate challenge
The Development Challenges
• 2 billion people without access to clean cooking f l
fuels
• More than 1.5 billion people without electricity
• More than 1 billion have no access to clean water
• About 800 million people chronicallyAbout 800 million people chronically undernourished
• 2 million children die every year from diarrhea
• 2 million children die every year from diarrhea
• 30,000 deaths each day from preventable diseases
In a world with rising inequality
In a truly unequal world
• In 2016, for the first time in human history 1%
people will own more wealth than remaining 99%
people will own more wealth than remaining 99%
• Inequality rising everywhere
• Poorest half of population in both developed and developing world controls less than 10% of wealth
• Income inequality equals inequality of opportunity and extends to gender, ethnicity, disability, and
age.
Recap
• We are changing the climatic system with disastrous results for the poor and the ecosystem
results for the poor and the ecosystem
• Climate change is eroding development gains
• Urgent action required to reduce emissions to keep global temperature rise below 2OC.
• Technology alone can not reduce emissions
• 20% of the world consumes 80% of resources
• Large parts of the world is “under developed” and a large part of humanity is poor and yet to start
large part of humanity is poor and yet to start consuming
Flawed economic model
• Current growth model; highly capital, resource and pollution intensive
pollution intensive
• Small populations; use disproportionate share of
t h ll ti i t i
resources; create huge pollution; invest massive
amounts in containing adverse impacts of growth; but continue to stay behind the problem
continue to stay behind the problem
• Current model of environmental management not able to contain pollution Current economic model able to contain pollution. Current economic model not working to meet the needs of all
A new economic‐environment model?
model?
• How to eradicate poverty?o to e ad cate po e ty?
• How to achieve sustainable models of consumption and production?
consumption and production?
• How to provide for development for all in a carbon‐constrained world?
carbon constrained world?
• How to build resilient economies – especially for the most vulnerable?
the most vulnerable?
• How to get to a green economy?
Narrative 1: A new economic
indicator to measure prosperity indicator to measure prosperity
• GDP does not provide the right signals for valuing G does ot p o de t e g t s g a s o a u g growth, which is just and sustainable (many
perverse incentives) p
• Bhutan: Gross National Happiness
• France: Commission on the Measurement ofFrance: Commission on the Measurement of economic Performance and Social Progress
• Set of indicators to that promotes not growth but
• Set of indicators to that promotes not growth but welfare, inclusive development, equality and
Narrative 2: Equal rights &
entitlement to global commons to all entitlement to global commons to all
• Create a global and national framework for equal C eate a g oba a d at o a a e o o equa rights and entitlement to global atmospheric
space for all, which will in turn build conditions for p limits on consumption and production
• Without this framework, it is clear that the world , has no real incentive to move away from its
current unsustainable economic growth model.
Apportioning global commons
Narrative 3: Build ecological assets &
the resilience of local ecosystems the resilience of local ecosystems
• Availability of water for drinking, irrigation & a ab ty o ate o d g, gat o &
ecosystem will be key for improving livelihoods and well being of peopleg p p
• The way to build a water resilient society is to
promote community‐owned decentralised water
p y
management assets; every drop of water is harvested and recycled and reused.
• Global right to work programme (MNREGA in
India) to build ecological assets – employment &
resilient ecosystem
Narrative 4: Leapfrog the technology treadmill
treadmill
• From fossil fuel and centralised grid to renewable o oss ue a d ce t a sed g d to e e ab e energy and decentralised grid
• From resource and energy inefficient buildings andFrom resource and energy inefficient buildings and cities to sustainable cities and green buildings
• From personal mobility to most advanced publicFrom personal mobility to most advanced public transport
• From energy inefficient appliances to most
• From energy inefficient appliances to most efficient gadgets (incandescent to LEDs)
Narrative 5: From products to services
services
• We need mobility not cars; communication and not mobile phones; cooling & heating and not air
mobile phones; cooling & heating and not air conditioners; shelter and not buildings
• We need services and not products
• We need services and not products
• Our businesses, therefore, have to move from selling products to selling services
products to selling services
• Selling products is about selling increasing numbers each year – this is growth every year – more material each year this is growth every year more material each year – more resource extraction & pollution
• Selling services is about saving material – increasing g g g the life of products – less resources
Narrative 6: From global to local production & consumption
production & consumption
• Direct investment and policy and fiscal incentives ect est e t a d po cy a d sca ce t es for local production and local consumption
• High value export‐led, mechanised production andHigh value export led, mechanised production and consumption gets dollars, taxes and few wealthy people; not jobs, equality and sustainability
p p ; j , q y y
• Localization is the new development paradigm – building local grids, small industries, organic g g , , g
argiculture, smart cities