Detached Single Family September 2021
Please Note
The contents of this report only reflect detached single family (DSF), unless where otherwise noted to include detached single family (DSF) or (ASF+DSF) homes in the 7 Metro Denver Counties: Adams, Arapahoe, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas, Elbert and Jefferson.
This representation is based in whole or in part on content supplied by REcolorado®, Inc. REcolorado®, Inc.
does not guarantee nor is it in any way responsible for its accuracy. Content maintained by REcolorado®, Inc. may not reflect all real estate activity in the market. Dates shown on graphs for timeframes included.
For additional sourcing references please refer to the back of the report.
We highly encourage you to review reports published by your REALTOR® Board and REcolorado®. Each report covers a different geography and will report different values for all metrics.
MARKET DYNAMICS.
ONE PAGE SNAPSHOT
DSF ASF
Sep-21 MOM YOY Sep-21 MOM YOY
Active * 2,240 10.5% -20.6% 1,022 0.5% -49.7%
Pending * 3,727 -11.1% -11.0% 1,544 -7.6% 20.0%
Closed * 3,636 -7.2% -11.0% 1,544 -7.6% -8.5%
Expired * 358 22.6% -10.1% 138 20.0% -54.3%
Odds of Selling 73.9% -3.8% 1.9% 84.2% 9.0% 25.9%
Close/List Price Ratio 102.0% -0.9% 1.5% 101.8% -0.2% 2.0%
Close/Original Price Ratio 97.7% -2.8% -1.9% 98.0% -3.3% -0.9%
Average Sold Price $ 686,475 0.6% 16.1% $ 441,638 1.1% 16.0%
Median Sold Price $ 575,000 -0.9% 13.9% $ 375,584 1.5% 13.8%
% of Closed Transactions with Reduced Prices * 19.4% 5.3% -8.1% 10.0% 1.9% -10.4%
Average Price Reduction from Original Price * -5.3% -0.2% -1.0% -4.7% -0.2% -0.6%
% Transactions Under Asking Price 24.5% 4.3% -7.0% 22.2% -12.0% -14.8%
% Closed Trasactions Full Price Offer 18.9% 3.3% -4.8% 25.8% -15.9% -6.3%
% Closed Transactions Over Asking Price 56.6% -7.6% 11.8% 52.0% 26.1% 21.1%
Average DOM * 12 20.0% -42.9% 15 7.1% -46.4%
Median DOM * 5 0.0% -16.7% 5 -16.7% -37.5%
Pending in 7 Days or Less (Flash Sale) 62.3% -5.5% 10.8% 25.4% -38.1% 25.9%
Months of Inventory * 0.4 0.0% -42.0% 0.3 -53.8% -76.7%
Dirstressed Transactions 0.2% 0.0% -0.1% 0.3% -1.4% 0.1%
Average Interest Rate 2.90% 0.06% -0.01% 2.90% 0.06% -0.01%
Average P&I Payment (based on median) $ 2,612 1.5% 16.5% $ 2,612 1.5% 16.5%
Greater Metro Denver Update September 2021
Metric Detached Single Family Attached Single Family
This representation is based in whole or in part on content supplied by REcolorado®, Inc. REcolorado®, Inc. does not guarantee nor is it in any way responsible for its accuracy. Content maintained by REcolorado®, Inc. may not reflect all real estate activity in the market. Dates shown on graphs for timeframes included. Adams, Arapahoe, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas, Elbert, Jefferson. Average Interest Rate and Average P&I Payments are based on the value from FreddieMac.com using a 10% down payment on a 30 year fixed term. Mortgage calculations are for informational use only and not a guaratnee. Please speak with licensed Loan Officer for details. Metrics containing ( * ) indicated this measurement can be tracked weekly and have more current values in the COVID-19 Weekly Report available from First American Title.
MARKET DYNAMICS HISTORIC
DSF
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0
- 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
1/1/2005 5/1/2005 9/1/2005 1/1/2006 5/1/2006 9/1/2006 1/1/2007 5/1/2007 9/1/2007 1/1/2008 5/1/2008 9/1/2008 1/1/2009 5/1/2009 9/1/2009 1/1/2010 5/1/2010 9/1/2010 1/1/2011 5/1/2011 9/1/2011 1/1/2012 5/1/2012 9/1/2012 1/1/2013 5/1/2013 9/1/2013 1/1/2014 5/1/2014 9/1/2014 1/1/2015 5/1/2015 9/1/2015 1/1/2016 5/1/2016 9/1/2016 1/1/2017 5/1/2017 9/1/2017 1/1/2018 5/1/2018 9/1/2018 1/1/2019 5/1/2019 9/1/2019 1/1/2020 5/1/2020 9/1/2020 1/1/2021 5/1/2021 9/1/2021
Greater Metro Denver Detached Residential Market Dynamics
MSI Active New Listings Pending Sold Expired Predictive MSI
Current 0.4 2,240 4,103 3,727 3,636 358 0.4
MOM 0.0% 10.5% 4% -11.1% -7.2% 22.6% 0.0%
YOY -42.0% -20.6% -27% -11.0% -11.0% -10.1% -42.0%
Predictive Metric MSI Active New Listings Pending Sold Expired MSI
MARKET DYNAMICS ACTIVE BASELINE
DSF
Active inventory for sale is typically at it’s highest in the late summer and the lowest inventory in the coldest winter months.
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MARKET DYNAMICS PENDING BASELINE
DSF
The most units transitioning to the under contract status is typically from March through July.
2,610 2,968 3,649 3,868 4,099 3,932 3,662 3,513 3,293 3,175 2,537 2,009
2,776 3,059 3,973 3,846 4,527 4,466 4,042 4,191 2,240
3,064 3,176 3,280 2,284 4,652 4,988 4,595 4,808 4,188 3,983 3,069 2,266
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Greater Metro Denver Single Family Detached
Pending Unit Historic Baseline as compared to Pre and Post COVID-19
Average 2013-2019 2021
2020
MARKET DYNAMICS CLOSED BASELINE
DSF
Closed transactions follow behind the units being placed under contract by approximately 30-35 days with the heaviest closing months from May to August.
1,974 2,157 3,006 3,377 3,859 4,084 3,893 3,736 3,276 3,186 2,765 2,842 1,975 2,419 3,356 3,610 3,657 4,327 3,330 3,918 3,727
1,986 2,316 2,988 2,555 2,298 4,099 4,669 4,173 4,087 4,241 3,394 3,198
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Greater Metro Denver Single Family Detached
Closed Unit Historic Baseline as compared to Pre and Post COVID-19
Average 2013-2019 2021
2020
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MONTHS OF INVENTORY BY PRICE RANGE
The Metro Denver Real Estate Market continues to be drastically under-
supplied of homes at the current rate of demand. A market in balance would be closer to a 6 month supply of inventory. Values below 1.0 month indicate a high likelihood of multiple offers.
DSF
0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4
0.7 1.0 1.0
1.2 1.8
1.9
9.7 7.5
All Prices 0-199K 200-399K 400-599K 600-799K 800-999K 1.0-1.5M 1.5-2.0M 2.0-3.0M 3.0-4.0M 4.0-5.0M 5.0M+
Greater Metro Denver Single Family Detached Supply in Months by Price Range September 2021
2.95 0.63 0.18
MONTHS OF INVETORY BY ZIP CODE
The suburban surge and demand for larger homes with more room continues into 2021. More urban densely populated areas are still far from a balanced market but are slightly less competitive than the outer ring suburbs.
DSF ASF
% OF BALANCE HISTORIC
DSF
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
140.0%
160.0%
180.0%
- 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000
1/1/2005 5/1/2005 9/1/2005 1/1/2006 5/1/2006 9/1/2006 1/1/2007 5/1/2007 9/1/2007 1/1/2008 5/1/2008 9/1/2008 1/1/2009 5/1/2009 9/1/2009 1/1/2010 5/1/2010 9/1/2010 1/1/2011 5/1/2011 9/1/2011 1/1/2012 5/1/2012 9/1/2012 1/1/2013 5/1/2013 9/1/2013 1/1/2014 5/1/2014 9/1/2014 1/1/2015 5/1/2015 9/1/2015 1/1/2016 5/1/2016 9/1/2016 1/1/2017 5/1/2017 9/1/2017 1/1/2018 5/1/2018 9/1/2018 1/1/2019 5/1/2019 9/1/2019 1/1/2020 5/1/2020 9/1/2020 1/1/2021 5/1/2021 9/1/2021
Greater Metro Denver Detached Residential Active vs. Balanced Market
Active Active Units for Balance % of Balance
Current 2,240 22,362 10.0%
MOM 10.5% -11.1% 2.0%
YOY -20.6% -11.0% -1.2%
Metric Active Active for
Balance % of Balance
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% OF BALANCE BY PRICE RANGE
The Metro Denver Real Estate Market currently has only 9.1% of the homes
required to offset demand. The red bar represents how many homes would need to be actively listed to create a 6.0 month supply of homes, or a balanced market.
DSF
22,362 12
1,836
10,530 5,904
2,058 1,278 450 180 60 30 24
2,240 2
94 712 648 309 214 90 81 31 29 30
All Prices 0-199K 200-399K 400-599K 600-799K 800-999K 1.0-1.5M 1.5-2.0M 2.0-3.0M 3.0-4.0M 4.0-5.0M 5.0M+
Greater Metro Denver Single Family Detached
Active Unit Count vs. Active Required for Balance by Price Range September 2021
10.2%
43.5% 2.0%
% OF BALANCE BY ZIP CODE
Zip codes in red are the most undersupplied areas in Metro Denver. At most in LoDo there is still only 57.5% of the amount of inventory to offset demand. A market in balance would display a value of 100%.
DSF ASF
ODDS OF SELLING.
ODDS OF SELLING HISTORIC
DSF
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
1/1/2005 5/1/2005 9/1/2005 1/1/2006 5/1/2006 9/1/2006 1/1/2007 5/1/2007 9/1/2007 1/1/2008 5/1/2008 9/1/2008 1/1/2009 5/1/2009 9/1/2009 1/1/2010 5/1/2010 9/1/2010 1/1/2011 5/1/2011 9/1/2011 1/1/2012 5/1/2012 9/1/2012 1/1/2013 5/1/2013 9/1/2013 1/1/2014 5/1/2014 9/1/2014 1/1/2015 5/1/2015 9/1/2015 1/1/2016 5/1/2016 9/1/2016 1/1/2017 5/1/2017 9/1/2017 1/1/2018 5/1/2018 9/1/2018 1/1/2019 5/1/2019 9/1/2019 1/1/2020 5/1/2020 9/1/2020 1/1/2021 5/1/2021 9/1/2021
Greater Metro Denver Detached Residential Odds of Selling
Current 73.9%
MOM -3.8%
YOY 1.9%
Metric Odds of Selling
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The Odds of Selling is a ratio of homes for sale in each month, those that went under contract and closed vs those that remained in the market and did not sell. Since this is a direct ratio of the
buyers and sellers in a market, the higher this number is the more likely it is that a home will sell. If this number is lower, that means that buyers will have more negotiating power and be less likely to compete against multiple offers.
ODDS OF SELLING BASELINE
DSF
49.6% 53.5% 58.5% 58.1% 58.2% 55.1% 52.0% 50.7% 47.8% 49.4% 49.8% 49.6%
75.1% 79.3% 84.2% 87.2% 80.0% 81.5% 74.9% 77.8% 73.9%
62.4% 62.1% 60.1% 52.6% 61.4% 70.8% 72.9% 73.4% 72.0% 77.9% 76.4% 79.0%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Greater Metro Denver Single Family Detached
Odds of Selling Baseline as compared to Pre and Post COVID-19
Average 2013-2019 2021
2020
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ODDS OF SELLING BY ZIP CODE
73.6%
39.4% 89.8%
Zip codes in red are the most competitive for buyers looking to purchase.
There is correlation to lower priced homes having a higher amount of demand and increased odds of selling.
DSF ASF
SHOWING DATA.
SHOWING DATA HISTORIC
DSF
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0
- 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000
1/1/2011 5/1/2011 9/1/2011 1/1/2012 5/1/2012 9/1/2012 1/1/2013 5/1/2013 9/1/2013 1/1/2014 5/1/2014 9/1/2014 1/1/2015 5/1/2015 9/1/2015 1/1/2016 5/1/2016 9/1/2016 1/1/2017 5/1/2017 9/1/2017 1/1/2018 5/1/2018 9/1/2018 1/1/2019 5/1/2019 9/1/2019 1/1/2020 5/1/2020 9/1/2020 1/1/2021 5/1/2021 9/1/2021
Greater Metro Denver Detached Residential Showing Data
Total Showings Shows per Listing Total Showable Properties
Current 97,048 15.3 6,343
MOM 0.2 14.2% 5.9%
YOY -0.2 10.1% -25.1%
Total Showable Properties Metric Total
Showings
Shows per Listing
SHOWS TO PENDING HISTORIC
DSF
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
- 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000
1/1/2011 5/1/2011 9/1/2011 1/1/2012 5/1/2012 9/1/2012 1/1/2013 5/1/2013 9/1/2013 1/1/2014 5/1/2014 9/1/2014 1/1/2015 5/1/2015 9/1/2015 1/1/2016 5/1/2016 9/1/2016 1/1/2017 5/1/2017 9/1/2017 1/1/2018 5/1/2018 9/1/2018 1/1/2019 5/1/2019 9/1/2019 1/1/2020 5/1/2020 9/1/2020 1/1/2021 5/1/2021 9/1/2021
Greater Metro Denver Detached Residential Showings vs. Contracts
Total Showings Pending Average Shows to Pending Median Shows to Pending
Current 97,048 3,727 23.3
MOM 0.2 -11.1% 11.0%
YOY -0.2 -11.0% -5.3%
Metric Total
Showings Pending Average Shows to Pending
DAYS TO PENDING.
DAYS TO PENDING HISTORIC
DSF
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
1/1/2005 5/1/2005 9/1/2005 1/1/2006 5/1/2006 9/1/2006 1/1/2007 5/1/2007 9/1/2007 1/1/2008 5/1/2008 9/1/2008 1/1/2009 5/1/2009 9/1/2009 1/1/2010 5/1/2010 9/1/2010 1/1/2011 5/1/2011 9/1/2011 1/1/2012 5/1/2012 9/1/2012 1/1/2013 5/1/2013 9/1/2013 1/1/2014 5/1/2014 9/1/2014 1/1/2015 5/1/2015 9/1/2015 1/1/2016 5/1/2016 9/1/2016 1/1/2017 5/1/2017 9/1/2017 1/1/2018 5/1/2018 9/1/2018 1/1/2019 5/1/2019 9/1/2019 1/1/2020 5/1/2020 9/1/2020 1/1/2021 5/1/2021 9/1/2021
Greater Metro Denver Detached Residential Average and Median Days to Pending
Average Days on Market Median DOM % Pending 7 Days or Less
Current 12.0 5 2,267
MOM 20.0% 0.0% -14.7%
YOY -42.9% -16.7% 7.7%
Metric Average Days on Market
Median Days on Market
Pending in 7 Days or Less
Average Days on Market is the average length of time it takes from the date the property is listed until the property receives a contract for purchase from a buyer, and the property is shifted to a Pending status. This metric does not include the time from being placed in the pending status to the closing date.
DAYS TO PENDING AVERAGE BASELINE
DSF
45 43 36 29 25 23 23 25 28 31 34 39
21 18 15 9 12 8 8 10 12
43 35 27 18 21 22 23 21 21 22 19 18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Greater Metro Denver Single Family Detached
Average DOM Baseline as compared to Pre and Post COVID-19 Average 2013-2019
2021 2020
DAYS TO PENIDNG MEDIAN BASELINE
Median Days on Market is the length of time it takes for 50% of homes receives a contract for
purchase from a buyer, and the property is shifted to a Pending status. This metric does not include the time from being placed in the Pending status to the Closing date.
DSF
23 16 10 7 7 7 8 11 13 14 17 20
5 5 4 4 5 4 4 5 5
23 10 6 5 8 7 6 6 6 6 5 5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Greater Metro Denver Single Family Detached
Median DOM Baseline as compared to Pre and Post COVID-19
Average 2013-2019 2021
2020
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AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET BY PRICE RANGE
Average Days on Market by price range shows that nearly all homes under $1,000,000 are pending within 2 weeks. Buyers need to move quickly as demand remains at historically high levels.
DSF
12
40 8
10 12
14 12
23
39
80 3
205
All Prices 0-199K 200-399K 400-599K 600-799K 800-999K 1.0-1.5M 1.5-2.0M 2.0-3.0M 3.0-4.0M 4.0-5.0M 5.0M+
Greater Metro Denver Single Family Detached
Average Days on Market by Price Range September 2021
43 13 4
AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET BY ZIP CODE
Zip codes in red are the most competitive for buyers looking to purchase. Days to Pending have reached as low as 3-5 days in many zip codes.
DSF ASF
This is the percentage of units that went under contract within one week of being listed.
Again, the faster homes sell, the larger and more competitive the pool of potential
buyers is for properties in Metro Denver. Historically the fastest months are represented by those homes listed in March, April and May.
DAYS TO PENDING AVERAGE BASELINE
DSF
30.4% 40.0% 48.4% 54.8% 56.1% 53.9% 49.1% 43.5% 38.3% 35.8% 33.7% 31.0%
62.6% 52.9% 77.8% 83.1% 83.9% 82.8% 92.9% 67.8% 62.3%
29.5% 45.8% 56.6% 62.3% 50.3% 51.4% 53.8% 56.7% 58.4% 57.8% 59.5% 59.4%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Greater Metro Denver Single Family Detached
% Properties Pending in 7 Days or Less Baseline as compared to Pre and Post COVID-19
Average 2013-2019 2021
2020
PENDING IN 7 DAYS OR LESS BASELINE
DSF
It is more likely than not to see properties up to $4,000,000 under contract in less than 1 week.
62.3%
0.0%
73.4%
64.6%
59.5%
57.6%
62.8%
56.2%
39.1%
31.3%
100.0%
25.0%
All Prices 0-199K 200-399K 400-599K 600-799K 800-999K 1.0-1.5M 1.5-2.0M 2.0-3.0M 3.0-4.0M 4.0-5.0M 5.0M+
Greater Metro Denver Single Family Detached
Pending in 7 Days or Less by Price Range September 2021
61.6%
22.7% 80.5
PENDING IN 7 DAYS OR LESS BY ZIP CODE
In Metro Denver there are zip codes where over 90% of homes are likely to sell in less than 7 days when reviewing all zip codes 74.9% are pending after the first weekend of being on market.
DSF ASF
SOLD PRICE & RATIOS.
SOLD PRICE
DSF
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
1/1/2005 4/1/2005 7/1/2005 10/1/2005 1/1/2006 4/1/2006 7/1/2006 10/1/2006 1/1/2007 4/1/2007 7/1/2007 10/1/2007 1/1/2008 4/1/2008 7/1/2008 10/1/2008 1/1/2009 4/1/2009 7/1/2009 10/1/2009 1/1/2010 4/1/2010 7/1/2010 10/1/2010 1/1/2011 4/1/2011 7/1/2011 10/1/2011 1/1/2012 4/1/2012 7/1/2012 10/1/2012 1/1/2013 4/1/2013 7/1/2013 10/1/2013 1/1/2014 4/1/2014 7/1/2014 10/1/2014 1/1/2015 4/1/2015 7/1/2015 10/1/2015 1/1/2016 4/1/2016 7/1/2016 10/1/2016 1/1/2017 4/1/2017 7/1/2017 10/1/2017 1/1/2018 4/1/2018 7/1/2018 10/1/2018 1/1/2019 4/1/2019 7/1/2019 10/1/2019 1/1/2020 4/1/2020 7/1/2020 10/1/2020 1/1/2021 4/1/2021 7/1/2021
Greater Metro Denver Detached Residential Average and Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price Median Sold Price
Current $686,475 $575,000
MOM 0.6% -0.9%
YOY 16.1% 13.9%
Median Sold Price Metric Average Sold
Price