Diffusion of mobile Internet services
95
0
0
Full text
(2) &$0/0.: "35
(3) %&4*(/
(4) "3$)*5&$563& 4$*&/$&
(5) 5&$)/0-0(: $304407&3 %0$503"- %*44&35"5*0/4. "BMUP6OJWFSTJUZ. #$ %)(%'.. *4#/ QEG *4#/ *44/- *44/ QEG *44/ "BMUP6OJWFSTJUZ 4DIPPMPG&MFDUSJDBM&OHJOFFSJOH %FQBSUNFOUPG$PNNVOJDBUJPOTBOE/FUXPSLJOH XXXBBMUPGJ. "BMUP%%. ) #& ŗ (. ,( .ŗ#-ŗ(ŗ)/. )' ŗ) ŗ." ŗ ' ,!#(!ŗ) ŗ.1)ŗ-#!(#ð (.ŗ )'#(-ŗ) ŗ . "()&)!# &ŗ#(()0.#)(ŗ)0 ,ŗ, (.ŗ3 ,-Ćŗ ') #& Ğ1#, & --ŗ( ŗ." ŗ (. ,( .Ąŗ"#-ŗ ' ,!#(!ŗ1#&&ŗ& ŗ.)ŗ( 1ŗ ),'-ŗ) ŗ ( Ě/- ,ŗ "0#)/,ŗ( ŗ&-)ŗ*,)0# ŗ /-#( --ŗ )**),./(#.# -ŗ ),ŗ )'*(# -ŗ ,)'ŗ." ŗ )(0 ,!#(!ŗ. & )''/(# .#)(-ąŗ Ğ (. ,( .ąŗ( ŗ' #ŗ#( /-.,# -Ąŗ" ŗ # /-#)(ŗ) ŗ. "()&)!# &ŗ#(()0.#)(-ŗ#-ŗ 1# &3ŗ #- /-- ŗ#(ŗ." ŗ&#. ,./, Ąŗ)1 0 ,ąŗ **&# .#)(-ŗ) ŗ." ŗ # /-#)(ŗ." ),3ŗ.)ŗ ') #& ŗ- ,0# -ŗ"0 ŗ')-.&3ŗ )( (.,. ŗ )(ŗ') #& ŗ. & *")(3ąŗ( ŗ )(-# , ŗ."#-ŗ # /-#)(ŗ.)ŗ, -/&.ŗ ,)'ŗ ( Ě/- ,ŗ )*.#)(ŗ #-#)(-ŗ.".ŗ, ŗ' ŗ#( * ( (.&3ŗ) ŗ )." ,ŗ#(()0.#)(-Ąŗ (ŗ )(.,-.ąŗ." ŗ." -#-ŗ) ŗ ."#-ŗ #-- ,..#)(ŗ#-ŗ.".ŗ." ŗ # /-#)(ŗ) ŗ ') #& ŗ (. ,( .ŗ- ,0# -ŗ-ŗ-3-. '# ŗ . "()&)!# &ŗ#(()0.#)(-ŗ * ( -ŗ)(ŗŗ &/-. ,ŗ) ŗ- *,. ŗ /.ŗ#(. ,, &. ŗ . "()&)!3ŗ )'*)( (.-ŗ.".ŗ # /- ŗ #(. , * ( (.&3ŗ / ŗ.)ŗ )."ŗ '( Ě ,#0 (ŗ )*.#)(ŗ( ŗ-/**&3Ě ,#0 (ŗ #-- '#(.#)(Ąŗ. # /-#)(ŗ) ŗ ) #& ŗ (. ,( .ŗ ,0# -ŗ "OUFSP,JWJ. %0$503"- %*44&35"5*0/4.
(6)
(7) Aalto University publication series DOCTORAL DISSERTATIONS 90/2011. Diffusion of Mobile Internet Services Antero Kivi. Doctoral dissertation for the degree of Doctor of Science in Technology to be presented with due permission of the School of Electrical Engineering for public examination and debate in Auditorium S1 at the Aalto University School of Electrical Engineering (Espoo, Finland) on the 4th of November 2011 at 12 noon.. Aalto University School of Electrical Engineering Department of Communications and Networking.
(8) Supervisor Professor Heikki Hämmäinen Instructor Professor Heikki Hämmäinen Preliminary examiners Professor Harry Bouwman, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands Professor Dimitris Varoutas, University of Athens, Greece Opponent Professor Doctor Burkhard Stiller, University of Zürich, Switzerland. Aalto University publication series DOCTORAL DISSERTATIONS 90/2011 © Antero Kivi ISBN 978-952-60-4303-6 (pdf) ISBN 978-952-60-4302-9 (printed) ISSN-L 1799-4934 ISSN 1799-4942 (pdf) ISSN 1799-4934 (printed) Aalto Print Helsinki 2011 Finland The dissertation can be read at http://lib.tkk.fi/Diss/.
(9) Abstract Aalto University, P.O. Box 11000, FI-00076 Aalto www.aalto.fi. Author Antero Kivi Name of the doctoral dissertation Diffusion of Mobile Internet Services Publisher School of Electrical Engineering Unit Department of Communications and Networking Series Aalto University publication series DOCTORAL DISSERTATIONS 90/2011 Field of research Network Economics Manuscript submitted 10 August 2010 Date of the defence 4 November 2011 Monograph. Manuscript revised 28 August 2011 Language English. Article dissertation (summary + original articles). Abstract Mobile Internet is an outcome of the merging of two significant domains of technological innovation over recent years: mobile/wireless and the Internet. This merging will lead to new forms of end-user behaviour and also provide business opportunities for companies from the converging telecommunications, IT/Internet, and media industries. The diffusion of technological innovations is widely discussed in the literature. However, applications of the diffusion theory to mobile services have mostly concentrated on mobile telephony, and considered this diffusion to result from end-user adoption decisions that are made independently of other innovations. In contrast, the thesis of this dissertation is that the diffusion of mobile Internet services as systemic technological innovations depends on a cluster of separate but interrelated technology components that diffuse interdependently due to both demand-driven adoption and supply-driven dissemination. This research was conducted using quantitative research data on mobile handsets and services collected from Finland during the years 2005-2009. The diffusion of mobile Internet services was found to depend on the generic technology components of mobile services: devices, applications, networks, and content. These components form an interrelated cluster of technologies. Consequently, direct market actor influence over a specific technology component has indirect effects on the other generic components, and, thereby, also influences the diffusion of mobile Internet services. This dissertation contributes to the fields of innovation diffusion and mobile services research. Firstly, a general approach for planning and forecasting technology product evolution and new product feature diffusion was developed by isolating the previously unexplored phenomenon of product feature dissemination and linking it to the known phenomena of product category diffusion and product unit replacement. Secondly, observations on the diffusion of systemic technological innovations were made in the context of mobile Internet services related to component technology interdependence, market actor dissemination efforts, and end-user assimilation gaps. Thirdly, the fundamental differences of alternative methods to measure mobile service usage as well as the data provided by them were identified, and a holistic framework for analysing the usage of mobile services was developed. Fourthly, novel research methods and data were utilised. Keywords Diffusion, mobile, Internet, dissemination, technology cluster, systemic innovation. ISBN (printed) 978-952-60-4302-9 ISBN (pdf) 978-952-60-4303-6 ISSN-L 1799-4934 Location of publisher Espoo Pages 200. ISSN (printed) 1799-4934. ISSN (pdf) 1799-4942 Location of printing Helsinki Year 2011 The dissertation can be read at http://lib.tkk.fi/Diss/.
(10)
(11) Tiivistelmä Aalto-yliopisto, PL 11000, 00076 Aalto www.aalto.fi. Tekijä Antero Kivi Väitöskirjan nimi Mobiilin Interneting palveluiden diffuusio Julkaisija Sähkötekniikan korkeakoulu Yksikkö Tietoliikenne- ja tietoverkkotekniikan laitos Sarja Aalto University publication series DOCTORAL DISSERTATIONS 90/2011 Tutkimusala Tietoverkkotalous Käsikirjoituksen pvm 10.08.2010 Väitöspäivä 04.11.2011 Monografia. Korjatun käsikirjoituksen pvm 28.08.2011 Kieli Englanti. Yhdistelmäväitöskirja (yhteenveto-osa + erillisartikkelit). Tiivistelmä Mobiili Internet on seurausta liikkuvuuden/langattomuuden ja Internetin, kahden merkittävän viimeaikaisen teknologisen innovaation alueen yhdistymisestä. Tämä yhdistyminen johtaa uusiin kuluttajakäyttäytymisen muotoihin ja tarjoaa liiketoimintamahdollisuuksia yrityksille lähentyviltä tietoliikenteen, tietotekniikan, ja median toimialoilta. Teknologisten innovaatioiden leviämistä yhteisöissä, eli niin kutsuttua diffuusion ilmiötä on tutkittu laajalti. Diffuusioteorioiden sovellukset mobiilipalveluihin ovat kuitenkin pääasiassa keskittyneet puhepalveluihin ja käsitelleet tällaisten palveluiden diffuusiota erillisenä ilmiönä, joka on riippumaton loppukäyttäjien muista omaksumispäätöksistä. Tämän työn väite sitä vastoin on, että mobiilin Internetin palveluiden diffuusio systeemisinä teknologisina innovaatioina riippuu ryppäästä erillisiä mutta toisiinsa liittyneitä teknologisia komponenteja, jotka leviävät toisistaan riippuvasti sekä kysyntäpohjaisen loppukäyttäjien omaksumisen että tarjontapohjaisen komponenttien levittämisen seurauksena. Tässä tutkimuksessa käytettiin matkapuhelimista ja matkapuhelinpalveluista Suomessa vuosina 2005-2009 kerättyä kvantitatiivista tutkimusaineistoa. Mobiilin Internetin palveluiden diffuusion havaittiin riippuvan mobiilipalveluiden yleisistä teknologisista komponenteista, jotka ovat: päätelaitteet, sovellukset, verkot, ja sisällöt. Nämä komponentit muodostavat toisiinsa liittyneiden teknologioiden ryppään. Siten markkinatoimijoiden suora vaikutus yhteen teknologiseen komponenttiin vaikuttaa epäsuorasti myös muihin komponentteihin, ja myös mobiilin Internetin palveluiden diffuusioon. Tämä väitöskirja kontribuoi innovaatioiden diffuusion ja mobiilipalveluiden tutkimusaloihin. Ensiksi, työssä kehitettiin yleinen menettelytapa teknologiatuotteiden evoluution ja uusien tuoteominaisuuksien diffuusion ennustamiseen eristämällä aiemmin tutkimaton tuoteominaisuuksien levittämisen ilmiö ja yhdistämällä se tunnettuihin tuotekategorioiden diffuusion ja tuoteyksilöiden korvaamisen ilmiöihin. Toiseksi, työssä tehtiin havaintoja systeemisten teknologisten innovaatioiden diffuusiosta mobiilipalveluiden tapauksessa liittyen komponenttiteknologioiden keskinäisiin riippuvuuksiin, markkinatoimijoiden levittämispyrkimyksiin, ja loppukäyttäjien omaksumiskuiluihin. Kolmanneksi, työssä tunnistettiin vaihtoehtoisten aineistonkeruumenetelmien ja niiden tuottaman aineiston perustavanlaatuiset eroavaisuudet, ja kehitettiin holistinen viitekehys mobiilipalveluiden käytön analysointiin. Neljänneksi, työssä käytettiin uusia tutkimusmenetelmiä ja -aineistoja. Avainsanat Diffuusio, mobiili, Internet, levittäminen, teknologiarypäs, systeeminen innovaatio. ISBN (painettu) 978-952-60-4302-9 ISBN (pdf) 978-952-60-4303-6 ISSN-L 1799-4934 Julkaisupaikka Espoo Sivumäärä 200. ISSN (painettu) 1799-4934 Painopaikka Helsinki. ISSN (pdf) 1799-4942 Vuosi 2011. Luettavissa verkossa osoitteessa http://lib.tkk.fi/Diss/.
(12)
(13) Preface 7KH UHSXWDWLRQ , PD\ KDYH DFTXLUHG RQ WKLV DFFRXQW E\ ZKLFK , VKDOO UHFHLYH SURPRWLRQ FDOOV WR P\ PLQG WKH YHU\ JUHDW DVVLVWDQFH , UHFHLYHG WKHUHLQIURP\RXZKLFKZLOOHYHUEHUHPHPEHUHGZLWKWKHPRVWJUDWHIXOO $FNQRZOHGJHPHQWV . . . . . . . &DSWDLQ-DPHV&RRN. )LUVW DQG IRUHPRVW , ZDQW WR WKDQN 3URIHVVRU +HLNNL +lPPlLQHQ IRU VXSHUYLVLQJ P\ GRFWRUDO GLVVHUWDWLRQ DQG IRU SURYLGLQJ WKH FRQWH[W IRU P\ UHVHDUFK,DPWKDQNIXOWR3URIHVVRU%XUNKDUG6WLOOHUIURPWKH8QLYHUVLW\RI =ULFK IRU DFWLQJ DV WKHRSSRQHQWRIP\ GLVVHUWDWLRQ DQG 3URIHVVRU +DUU\ %RXZPDQ IURP 'HOIW 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 7HFKQRORJ\ DQG 3URIHVVRU 'LPLWULV 9DURXWDVIURP8QLYHUVLW\RI$WKHQVIRUDFWLQJDVWKHH[WHUQDOH[DPLQHUVRI P\GLVVHUWDWLRQ,DOVRZDQWWRWKDQN3URIHVVRU-XXVR7|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i.
(14) ii.
(15) Contents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iii.
(16) 'LIIXVLRQRI0RELOH+DQGVHWV . 'LIIXVLRQRI0RELOH+DQGVHW)HDWXUHV. . 3URGXFW(YROXWLRQ3URFHVV. 'LIIXVLRQRI0RELOH'DWD6HUYLFHV . 0RELOH'HYLFHV. . 0RELOH'HYLFH$SSOLFDWLRQV. . 0RELOH1HWZRUNV . . 0RELOH&RQWHQW. 'LVFXVVLRQ . 6XPPDU\RI)LQGLQJV. . *HQHUDOLVDWLRQV. . /LPLWDWLRQV. &RQFOXVLRQV . 6XPPDU\RI&RQWULEXWLRQV . )XUWKHU5HVHDUFK 5HIHUHQFHV . iv.
(17) List of Publications 7KLV GLVVHUWDWLRQ FRQVLVWV RI D VXPPDU\ DQG RI WKH IROORZLQJ RULJLQDO DUWLFOHVZKLFKDUHUHIHUUHGWRLQWKHWH[WE\WKHLU5RPDQQXPHUDOV ,. .LYL $
(18) 0HDVXULQJ PRELOH VHUYLFH XVDJH PHWKRGV DQG PHDVXUHPHQWV SRLQWV ,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXUQDO RI 0RELOH &RPPXQLFDWLRQV
(19) SS. ,,. 6PXUD 7 .LYL $ DQG 7|\OL -
(20) $ )UDPHZRUN IRU $QDO\VLQJ WKH 8VDJH RI 0RELOH 6HUYLFHV ,1)2 7KH MRXUQDO RI SROLF\ UHJXODWLRQ DQG VWUDWHJ\ IRU WHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV LQIRUPDWLRQDQGPHGLD
(21) SS. ,,,. .LYL $ 6PXUD 7 DQG 7|\OL -
(22) 'LIIXVLRQ RI 0RELOH +DQGVHW)HDWXUHVLQ)LQODQG(LJKWK,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RQIHUHQFHRQ 0RELOH%XVLQHVV ,&0%
(23) 'DOLDQ&KLQD-XQH. ,9. .LYL $ 6PXUD 7 DQG 7|\OL -
(24) 7HFKQRORJ\ 3URGXFW (YROXWLRQ DQG WKH 'LIIXVLRQ RI 3URGXFW )HDWXUHV DFFHSWHG IRU SXEOLFDWLRQDWWKH7HFKQRORJLFDO)RUHFDVWLQJDQG6RFLDO&KDQJH. 9. .LYL $
(25) 'LIIXVLRQ RI 0RELOH 'DWD LQ )LQODQG 1(7120,&6 (FRQRPLF 5HVHDUFK DQG (OHFWURQLF 1HWZRUNLQJ
(26) SS. 9,. 6PXUD 7 .LYL $ DQG 7|\OL -
(27) 0RELOH 'DWD 6HUYLFHV LQ )LQODQG 8VDJHRI1HWZRUNV'HYLFHV$SSOLFDWLRQVDQG&RQWHQW ,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI(OHFWURQLF%XVLQHVV
(28) SS. v.
(29) vi.
(30) Author's Contribution 7KHDXWKRUFRQWULEXWHGWR$UWLFOHV,WR9,DVIROORZV , ,,. 7KHDXWKRULVWKHVROHFRQWULEXWRUWRWKLVDUWLFOH 7KH LGHD IRU WKLV DUWLFOH ZDV IRUPHG MRLQWO\ ZLWK 6PXUD DQG WKH IUDPHZRUN ZDV DOVR GHYHORSHG MRLQWO\ ZLWK 6PXUD 6PXUD DVVHPEOHG WKH PDQXVFULSW ZKLOH WKH DXWKRU ZDV UHVSRQVLEOH IRU ZULWLQJ &KDSWHUV DQG 7KH PDQXVFULSW ZDV HGLWHG LWHUDWLYHO\ WRJHWKHUZLWK6PXUDDQG7|\OL. ,,,. 7KH LGHD IRU WKLV DUWLFOH ZDV IRUPHG MRLQWO\ ZLWK 6PXUD 7KH DXWKRU ZDV UHVSRQVLEOH IRU FROOHFWLQJ DQG DQDO\VLQJ WKH UHVHDUFK GDWD 7KH DXWKRU ZURWH WKH PDQXVFULSW ZKLOH 6PXUD DQG 7|\OL SURYLGHGFRPPHQWV. ,9. 7KH LGHD IRU WKLV DUWLFOH ZDV IRUPHG MRLQWO\ ZLWK 6PXUD 7KH SODQQLQJ DQG IRUHFDVWLQJ DSSURDFK ZDV GHYHORSHG MRLQWO\ ZLWK 6PXUD 7KH DXWKRU ZDVUHVSRQVLEOH IRU FRQGXFWLQJ WKH OLWHUDWXUH UHVHDUFK DQG IRU FROOHFWLQJ WKH UHVHDUFK GDWD ZKHUHDV GDWD DQDO\VLVZDVFRQGXFWHGMRLQWO\ZLWK6PXUDDQG7|\OL7KHDXWKRU DVVHPEOHG WKH PDQXVFULSW DQG ZDV UHVSRQVLEOH IRU ZULWLQJ &KDSWHUV DQG 7KH PDQXVFULSW ZDV HGLWHG LWHUDWLYHO\ WRJHWKHUZLWK6PXUDDQG7|\OL. 9 9,. 7KHDXWKRULVWKHVROHFRQWULEXWRUWRWKLVDUWLFOH 7KH LGHD IRU WKLV DUWLFOH ZDV IRUPHG MRLQWO\ ZLWK 6PXUD 7KH DXWKRU ZDV UHVSRQVLEOH IRU FROOHFWLQJ WKH UHVHDUFK GDWD ZKHUHDV GDWD DQDO\VLV ZDV FRQGXFWHG MRLQWO\ ZLWK 6PXUD 6PXUD DVVHPEOHG WKH PDQXVFULSW ZKLOH WKH DXWKRU ZDV UHVSRQVLEOH IRU ZULWLQJ &KDSWHUV DQG 6PXUD DQG WKH DXWKRU HGLWHG WKH PDQXVFULSWLWHUDWLYHO\WRJHWKHUZKLOH7|\OLSURYLGHGFRPPHQWV. vii.
(31) viii.
(32) List of Abbreviations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ix.
(33) x.
(34) List of Figures )LJXUH. 6WUXFWXUHRIWKHGLVVHUWDWLRQ. )LJXUH. $GRSWLRQDQGGLIIXVLRQFXUYHVDQGDGRSWHUFDWHJRULVDWLRQV. )LJXUH. 5HODWLYH SRVLWLRQV RI GLIIXVLRQ DQG UHODWHG WKHRUHWLFDO GRPDLQV. )LJXUH. 'DWD VRXUFHV DQG WKHLU OLQNV WR WKH FRPSRQHQWV RI PRELOH VHUYLFHV. )LJXUH. 6RXUFHVRIGDWDRQPRELOHVHUYLFHXVDJH $UWLFOH,
(35) . )LJXUH. $ IUDPHZRUN IRU DQDO\VLQJ WKH XVDJH RI PRELOH VHUYLFHV $UWLFOH,,
(36) . )LJXUH. +LVWRULFDO GLIIXVLRQ RI PRELOH KDQGVHW IHDWXUHV LQ )LQODQG $UWLFOH,,,
(37) . )LJXUH. 1RUPDOLVHGGLIIXVLRQRIPRELOHKDQGVHWIHDWXUHVLQ)LQODQG $UWLFOH,,,
(38) . )LJXUH . (YROXWLRQSURFHVVRISURGXFWSRSXODWLRQ $UWLFOH,9
(39) . )LJXUH (IIHFW RI D VFUDSSLQJ ERQXV FDPSDLJQ DQG FKDQJHV LQ KDQGVHWPHDQOLIHWLPHRQIHDWXUHGLIIXVLRQ $UWLFOH,9
(40) )LJXUH 6KDUHRIQRQEXQGOHGDQGEXQGOHG*KDQGVHWVLQ)LQODQG $UWLFOH9,
(41) )LJXUH 0RELOHGDWDWUDIILFE\GHYLFHW\SHLQ)LQODQG $UWLFOH9
(42) )LJXUH 0RELOH GDWD WUDIILF E\ DSSOLFDWLRQ W\SH LQ )LQODQG $UWLFOH9,
(43) )LJXUH 8VDJH RI GLIIHUHQW VPDUW SKRQH DSSOLFDWLRQV LQ )LQODQG $UWLFOH9,
(44) )LJXUH *QHWZRUNFRYHUDJHLQ)LQODQG $UWLFOH9,
(45) )LJXUH 0RELOHGDWDWUDIILFYROXPHLQ)LQODQG $UWLFOH9
(46) . xi.
(47) xii.
(48) List of Tables 7DEOH. 6XPPDU\RIUHVHDUFKDUWLFOHV. 7DEOH. 5HVHDUFK VFRSH E\ PHDVXUHPHQW SRLQW DQG PHWKRG PRGIURP$UWLFOH,
(49) . 7DEOH. 'DWD FKDUDFWHULVWLFV E\ PHDVXUHPHQW SRLQW DQG PHWKRG PRGIURP$UWLFOH,
(50) . 7DEOH. 0RVW SRSXODU ZHE VLWHV DFFHVVHG E\ )LQQLVK VPDUW SKRQH XVHUV $UWLFOH9,
(51) . 7DEOH. 6XPPDU\RIFRQWULEXWLRQV. . . xiii.
(52) . xiv.
(53) 1 Introduction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
(54) DQG WKH GLIIXVLRQ WKHRU\ KDV DOVR EHHQ DSSOLHG WR WKH GLIIXVLRQ RI PRELOH VHUYLFHV VHH 6HFWLRQ IRU D UHYLHZ
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
(56) SUHVV UHOHDVHV DQG*HQHUDO0RWRUV&RUSRUDWLRQDQQXDOUHSRUW ,QIRUPDWLRQRQ,QWHUQHWDQGQHZVSDSHUFRQVXPSWLRQZDVREWDLQHGIURP,QWHUQHW 8VDJH 6WDWLVWLFV KWWS ZZZLQWHUQHWZRUOGVWDWVFRPVWDWVKWP
(57) DQG :RUOG $VVRFLDWLRQRI1HZVSDSHUV KWWS ZZZZDQSUHVVRUJ
(58) . 1.
(59) 7KLV UHVHDUFK TXHVWLRQ LV DSSURDFKHG ZLWK UHVHDUFK REMHFWLYHV WKDW DUH UHODWHG WR WKUHH FRPSOHPHQWDU\ WRSLF DUHDV PHDVXULQJ DQG DQDO\VLQJ PRELOHVHUYLFHXVDJHGLIIXVLRQRIPRELOHKDQGVHWVDQGGLIIXVLRQRIPRELOH GDWDVHUYLFHV )LUVW UHVHDUFK GDWD RQ WKH XVDJH RI PRELOH VHUYLFHV FDQ EH FROOHFWHG IURP QXPHURXVVRXUFHVXVLQJPDQ\DOWHUQDWLYHPHWKRGV,QIDFWWKHFRQFHSWRI ³PRELOH VHUYLFH´ LV TXLWH DPELJXRXV 7KH XVDJH RI D SDUWLFXODUO\ PRELOH WHFKQRORJ\ FRPSRQHQW VXFK DV D SRUWDEOH GHYLFH HJ PRELOH KDQGVHW RU ODSWRSFRPSXWHU
(60) DZLUHOHVVQHWZRUN HJ**FHOOXODUQHWZRUN:/$1 RU :L0$;
(61) RU KDQGVHWDGDSWHG FRQWHQW HJ :$3 SDJHV
(62) LV RIWHQ FRQVLGHUHG DV XVDJH RI PRELOH VHUYLFHV ,Q DGGLWLRQ WKH DPRXQW DQG FRPSOH[LW\ RI GLJLWDO LQIRUPDWLRQ DYDLODEOH RQ WKH XVDJH RI YDULRXV WHFKQRORJ\FRPSRQHQWVRIPRELOHVHUYLFHVLVLQFUHDVLQJUDSLGO\ *DQW]HWDO
(63) PDNLQJ ODUJHVFDOH GDWD FROOHFWLRQ DQG DQDO\VLV DQ LQFUHDVLQJO\ UHOHYDQW UHVHDUFK WRSLF 7KLV EURDG WRSLF DUHD LV QDUURZHG GRZQ ZLWK WKH IROORZLQJUHVHDUFKREMHFWLYH 2 ,GHQWLI\WKHDOWHUQDWLYHPHWKRGVWRPHDVXUHWKHXVDJHRIPRELOH GHYLFHV DQG VHUYLFHV DQG GHWHUPLQH WKH IXQGDPHQWDO VLPLODULWLHV DQG GLIIHUHQFHV RI WKHVH PHWKRGV DQG WKH GDWD SURYLGHGE\WKHP 6HFRQG WKH PRELOH KDQGVHW LV D FHQWUDO WHFKQRORJ\ FRPSRQHQW IRU WKH DGRSWLRQ DQG XVDJH RI PRELOH ,QWHUQHW VHUYLFHV 7KH KDQGVHW DQG QHZ KDQGVHW IHDWXUHV DUH SUHUHTXLVLWHV IRU WKH DGRSWLRQ RI PDQ\ RWKHU VHUYLFH FRPSRQHQWVDQGQHHGWRXQGHUJRWKHWLPHFRQVXPLQJGLIIXVLRQSURFHVVWR VSUHDGWKURXJKWKHSRSXODWLRQRIDGRSWHUV0RUHRYHUWKHKDQGVHWLVRIWHQ EXQGOHG ZLWK RWKHU WHFKQRORJ\ FRPSRQHQWV VXFK DV PRELOH QHWZRUNV HJ EXQGOLQJ RI VXEVFULSWLRQV DQG KDQGVHWV
(64) KDQGVHW DSSOLFDWLRQV HJ SODWIRUPVSHFLILF DQG IDFWRU\LQVWDOOHG WKLUG SDUW\ VRIWZDUH DSSOLFDWLRQV
(65) DQG FRQWHQW HJ RSHUDWRU SRUWDOV
(66) 0RELOH KDQGVHWV DOVR LQFOXGH PDQ\ IHDWXUHV HJ GLJLWDO FDPHUD *36 UHFHLYHU -DYD VRIWZDUH SODWIRUP
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
(68) UHJXODWLRQ 7KHUHIRUH D KROLVWLF UHVHDUFK DSSURDFK LV QHHGHG LQ RUGHU WR XQGHUVWDQGWKHQDWXUHRIPRELOH,QWHUQHWVHUYLFHGLIIXVLRQ$FFRUGLQJO\WKH WKLUGUHVHDUFKREMHFWLYHUHDGV 2 ,GHQWLI\WKHJHQHULFWHFKQRORJ\FRPSRQHQWVRIPRELOHVHUYLFHV DQGGHWHUPLQHWKHIDFWXDOGLIIXVLRQDQGXVDJHSDWWHUQVRIWKHVH FRPSRQHQWVLQDQH[DPSOHPDUNHW 7KH VFRSH RI WKLV GLVVHUWDWLRQ LV GHILQHG E\ LWV WLWOH GLIIXVLRQ RI PRELOH ,QWHUQHWVHUYLFHV7KHFRQFHSWRI³GLIIXVLRQ´UHIHUVWRWKHSURFHVVLQZKLFK DQ LQQRYDWLRQ VSUHDGV LQ D KXPDQ VRFLHW\ RYHU WLPH 7KH IRFXV RI WKLV GLVVHUWDWLRQ LV RQ WKH DJJUHJDWH OHYHO SKHQRPHQRQ LH GLIIXVLRQ
(69) QRW RQ WKHOHYHORILQGLYLGXDOHQGXVHUVDQGWKHLUGHFLVLRQPDNLQJ LHDGRSWLRQ
(70) 0RELOH ,QWHUQHW VHUYLFHV DUH VHHQ DV ³V\VWHPLF LQQRYDWLRQV´ LQ WKDW WKHLU EHQHILWV DUH DWWDLQHG RQO\ LQ FRQMXQFWLRQ ZLWK UHODWHG FRPSOHPHQWDU\ WHFKQRORJLHV 7KH FRQFHSW RI ³PRELOH´ LV XQGHUVWRRG EURDGO\ LQ WKLV GLVVHUWDWLRQ DQG HQFRPSDVVHV DOO W\SHV RI PRELOHZLUHOHVV GHYLFHV DSSOLFDWLRQV QHWZRUNV FRQWHQW DQG VHUYLFHV 1HYHUWKHOHVV WKH SULPDU\ LQWHUHVWRIWKHUHVHDUFKLVRQPRELOHKDQGVHWVDQGWKHLUUROHDVSODWIRUPVIRU FRQVXPLQJPRELOH VHUYLFHV )XUWKHUPRUH WKH FRQFHSWRI³PRELOHKDQGVHW´ LV XVHG LQVWHDGRI³PRELOH WHOHSKRQH´ WKURXJKRXW WKH GLVVHUWDWLRQ LQRUGHU WR GLVWLQJXLVK EHWZHHQ WKH VLPSOH PRELOH WHOHSKRQHV RI WKH V DQG WKH PRUH DGYDQFHG ³VPDUW SKRQHV´ DQG ³PRELOH FRPSXWHUV´ RI WKH V )LQDOO\ WKH GLVVHUWDWLRQ FRQFHQWUDWHV RQ WKH LQQRYDWLYH XVH RI PRELOH KDQGVHWV HVSHFLDOO\ FRQFHUQLQJ VHUYLFHV DQG FRQWHQW SURYLGHG LQ WKH ,QWHUQHW 7KHUH LV QR SDUWLFXODU IRFXV WRZDUGV PRELOH RSHUDWRUV DV VHUYLFH SURYLGHUV H[FHSW DV SURYLGHUV RI WKH PRELOH GDWD DFFHVV DND ³ELWSLSH´
(71) VHUYLFH 7KHUHIRUHWUDGLWLRQDO PRELOH WHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV VHUYLFHV VXFK DV YRLFHFDOOLQJDQGVKRUWPHVVDJHVHUYLFHV 606
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
(73) )LUVWO\DJHQHUDODSSURDFKIRU SODQQLQJ DQG IRUHFDVWLQJ WHFKQRORJ\ SURGXFW HYROXWLRQ DQG QHZ SURGXFW. 3.
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
(75) )LJXUH. 6WUXFWXUHRIWKHGLVVHUWDWLRQ. . 5.
(76) 2 Theory on the Diffusion of Innovations 7KH SKHQRPHQRQ RI LQQRYDWLRQ GLIIXVLRQ LV DV ROG DV KXPDQ KLVWRU\ 1HZ LGHDV SUDFWLFHV DQG REMHFWV KDYH VSUHDG WKURXJK KXPDQ VRFLHWLHV VLQFH SUHKLVWRULFWLPHV7KHVHLQFOXGHWKHGRPHVWLFDWLRQRISODQWVDQGDQLPDOV OLWHUDF\DVZHOODVYDULRXVWHFKQRORJLFDOLQQRYDWLRQVUHODWHGWRIRULQVWDQFH YHKLFOHV DQG ZHDSRQU\ 'LDPRQG
(77) ,Q PRGHUQ WLPHV LQQRYDWLRQ GLIIXVLRQKDVEHFRPHDSRSXODUUHVHDUFKWRSLFLQVRFLDOVFLHQFHV7KHPRVW VLJQLILFDQW ILQGLQJV DQG WKHRULHV RQ GLIIXVLRQ KDYH EHHQ V\QWKHVLVHG E\ (YHUHWW 0 5RJHUV
(78) LQ KLV ERRN 'LIIXVLRQ RI ,QQRYDWLRQV ILUVW SXEOLVKHG LQ 'LIIXVLRQ RI LQQRYDWLRQV LV QRW D ZHOOGHILQHG XQLILHG DQG FRPSUHKHQVLYH WKHRU\ ,QVWHDG LW GHILQHV D EURDG WKHRUHWLFDO GRPDLQ 6WLQFKFRPEH
(79) FRQVLVWLQJ RI XQLWV RI DQDO\VLV HQYLURQPHQWV ZLWKLQ ZKLFKWKHWKHRU\LVVXSSRVHGWRKROGDQGDVXEVWDQWLYHIRFXVGHVFULEHGE\D VHW RI FRQFHSWV DQG UHODWLRQV EHWZHHQ WKHVH FRQFHSWV 'LIIXVLRQ RI LQQRYDWLRQV LV WKH WRSLF RI D YDVW ERG\ RI VRFLDO VFLHQFH OLWHUDWXUH 7KH QXPEHU RI LQWHUQDWLRQDO SHHUUHYLHZHG LQQRYDWLRQ GLIIXVLRQ UHODWHG DFDGHPLF SXEOLFDWLRQV LV FRXQWHG LQ WKRXVDQGV 5RJHUV
(80) ZKLOH QHZ H[WHQVLRQVDQGDSSOLFDWLRQVRIWKHWKHRU\DUHSXEOLVKHGFRQWLQXRXVO\ $ VHOHFWLYH UHYLHZ RI GLIIXVLRQ WKHRULHV UHODWHG WR WKH WRSLF RI WKLV GLVVHUWDWLRQ LV SUHVHQWHG LQ WKLV FKDSWHU )LUVW WKH UHOHYDQW FODVVLFDO LQQRYDWLRQGLIIXVLRQWKHRULHVDQGUHODWHGFRQFHSWVDUHLQWURGXFHG6HFRQG WKHPRVWFRPPRQPDWKHPDWLFDOLQQRYDWLRQGLIIXVLRQPRGHOVDUHSUHVHQWHG 7KLUGWKHUHODWLRQEHWZHHQGLIIXVLRQDQGRWKHUUHODWHGWKHRUHWLFDOGRPDLQV LV GLVFXVVHG )RXUWK DSSOLFDWLRQV WR WKH GLIIXVLRQ RI PRELOH VHUYLFHV DUH UHYLHZHG. 2.1. Classical Innovation Diffusion Theories. $FFRUGLQJ WR 5RJHUV
(81) GLIIXVLRQ LV ³WKH SURFHVV LQ ZKLFK DQ LQQRYDWLRQ LV FRPPXQLFDWHG WKURXJK FHUWDLQ FKDQQHOV RYHU WLPH DPRQJ WKHPHPEHUVRIDVRFLDOV\VWHP´7KLVSURFHVVLVGLVFXVVHGQH[W . $GRSWLRQDQG'LIIXVLRQ. 7KH GHFLVLRQ WR DGRSW DQ LQQRYDWLRQ E\ DQ LQGLYLGXDO RU RWKHU GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ XQLW LV QRW DQ LQVWDQWDQHRXV DFW ,QVWHDG LW LV D SURFHVV ZKLFK RFFXUV RYHU WLPH 7KLV SURFHVV DOVR NQRZQ DV WKH LQQRYDWLRQGHFLVLRQ SURFHVVFDQEHVHHQDVKDYLQJILYHGLVWLQFWVWDJHV NQRZOHGJHSHUVXDVLRQ GHFLVLRQLPSOHPHQWDWLRQDQGFRQILUPDWLRQ 5RJHUV
(82) ,QRWKHUZRUGV WKH LQGLYLGXDO JRHV WKURXJK D SURFHVV IURP KDYLQJ ILUVW NQRZOHGJH RI DQ LQQRYDWLRQ WR WKH IRUPDWLRQ RI DQ DWWLWXGH WRZDUG WKH LQQRYDWLRQ WR D. 6.
(83) GHFLVLRQWRDGRSWRUUHMHFWWKHLQQRYDWLRQWRWKHLPSOHPHQWDWLRQDQGXVHRI WKHLQQRYDWLRQDQGILQDOO\WRWKHFRQILUPDWLRQRIWKLVGHFLVLRQ$GRSWLRQ RUUHMHFWLRQ
(84) WDNHVSODFHLQWKHGHFLVLRQVWDJHRIWKLVSURFHVVDQGUHIHUVWR D GHFLVLRQ ³WR PDNH IXOO XVH RI DQ LQQRYDWLRQ E\ D VLQJOH GHFLVLRQPDNLQJ VRFLDO XQLW´ 5RJHUV
(85) 7KH DFWXDO XVH RI WKH LQQRYDWLRQ WDNHV SODFH DIWHUWKLVSURFHVV$WDODWHUVWDJHDQDGRSWHUFDQDOVRGLVFRQWLQXHWKHXVH RIWKHLQQRYDWLRQ ,Q FRQWUDVW WR DGRSWLRQ GLIIXVLRQ LV D V\VWHPOHYHO SKHQRPHQRQ LQ ZKLFK PHPEHUV RI WKH VRFLDO V\VWHP DGRSW WKH LQQRYDWLRQ RYHU WLPH 7KH UDWH RI DGRSWLRQ RUGLIIXVLRQUDWH
(86) LVWKHUHODWLYHVSHHGZLWKZKLFKPHPEHUVRID VRFLDO V\VWHP DGRSW DQ LQQRYDWLRQ 5RJHUV
(87) $GRSWLRQV RI DQ LQQRYDWLRQ LQ D VRFLDO V\VWHP DUH W\SLFDOO\ QRUPDOO\ GLVWULEXWHG LH DGRSWLRQVIROORZDEHOOVKDSHGFXUYHZKHQSORWWHGRYHUWLPHRQDIUHTXHQF\ EDVLV ZKHUHDV FXPXODWLYH DGRSWLRQV IRUP WKH FODVVLFDO 6VKDSHG GLIIXVLRQ FXUYH $FFRUGLQJO\ WKH GLIIXVLRQ RI DQ LQQRYDWLRQ LQ D VRFLDO V\VWHP JRHV WKURXJK D SHULRG RI VORZ EXW DFFHOHUDWLQJ
(88) JURZWK EHIRUH H[SHULHQFLQJ D SHULRG RI UHODWLYHO\ UDSLG JURZWK ZKLFK DJDLQ VORZV GRZQ GHFHOHUDWHV
(89) QHDU VDWXUDWLRQ (YHQWXDOO\ VXFFHVVIXO LQQRYDWLRQV DUH RIWHQ IROORZHG E\ DQRWKHUVXSHULRULQQRYDWLRQWKDWOHDGVWRGLVFRQWLQXDQFHDQGGHFOLQHLQWKH QXPEHU RI DGRSWHUV RI WKH SULRU LQQRYDWLRQ 7KLV GLVFRQWLQXDQFH LV QRW VKRZQE\WKHEDVLFGLIIXVLRQFXUYH7KHDGRSWLRQDQGGLIIXVLRQFXUYHVDUH LOOXVWUDWHGLQ)LJXUH. )LJXUH. $GRSWLRQDQGGLIIXVLRQFXUYHVDQGDGRSWHUFDWHJRULVDWLRQV. 7KHFRQFHSWRIDGRSWLRQ LHGHFLVLRQWRPDNHIXOOXVHRIDQLQQRYDWLRQ
(90) LV DFWXDOO\ TXLWH DPELJXRXV DQG GHSHQGV RQ WKH QDWXUH RI WKH LQQRYDWLRQ LQ TXHVWLRQ 7KH FODVVLFDO GHILQLWLRQ RI GLIIXVLRQ DV WKH FRPPXQLFDWLRQ RI DQ LQQRYDWLRQ RYHU VRFLDO OLQNV LPSOLHV WKDW DGRSWLRQ HVVHQWLDOO\ UHIHUV WR WKH WUDQVIHU RI LQIRUPDWLRQ (SLGHPLF GLIIXVLRQ PRGHOV VHH 6HFWLRQ
(91) DUH EXLOWRQWKHVDPHSUHPLVHRILQIRUPDWLRQGLIIXVLRQ HJ*HURVNL
(92) ,Q QHZ SURGXFW GLIIXVLRQ UHVHDUFK DGRSWLRQ LV W\SLFDOO\ GHILQHG DV WKH. 7.
(93) SXUFKDVH RU SK\VLFDO DFTXLVLWLRQ RI WKH LQQRYDWLRQ HJ %DVV DQG 0HDGH ,VODP
(94) 6XFK GHILQLWLRQ RI DGRSWLRQ GRHV QRW DSSO\ ZHOO WR SURGXFWV WKDW KDYH KLJK NQRZOHGJH EDUULHUV HJ LQIRUPDWLRQ V\VWHPV
(95) RU KDYH PXOWLSOH SXUSRVHV RI XVH HJ SHUVRQDO FRPSXWHUV
(96) 7KLV GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ LQQRYDWLRQ DFTXLVLWLRQ SXUFKDVH
(97) DQG GHSOR\PHQW DGRSWLRQ
(98) LV VRPHWLPHVFDOOHGWKH³DVVLPLODWLRQJDS´ )LFKPDQ .HPHUHU
(99) 7KHFRQFHSWRIGLIIXVLRQLVDOVRVRPHWLPHVXVHGDPELJXRXVO\6RPHDXWKRUV XVHWKHWHUP³GLIIXVLRQ´WRUHIHUWRWKHVSRQWDQHRXVXQSODQQHGVSUHDGRIDQ LQQRYDWLRQ ZKHUHDV ³GLVVHPLQDWLRQ´ UHIHUV WR D SURFHVV GLUHFWHG DQG PDQDJHG E\ FKDQJH DJHQFLHV 5RJHUV
(100) 6LPLODUO\ WKH UHODWLYH LPSRUWDQFH RI VXSSO\SXVK DND WHFKQRORJ\ SXVK
(101) DQG GHPDQGSXOO DND PDUNHW RU EXVLQHVV SXOO
(102) RQ WHFKQRORJ\ GLIIXVLRQ KDV DOVR EHHQ VWXGLHG HJ=PXG
(103) 7KHGLIIXVLRQRILQQRYDWLRQVFDQDOVREHVHHQWRUHVXOWIURPGLIIHUHQWLGHDO W\SHV RI LQQRYDWLRQGHFLVLRQV LH GHFLVLRQV WR DGRSW RU UHMHFW WKH LQQRYDWLRQ
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
(105) LQQRYDWLRQGHFLVLRQVDUHGHFLVLRQVWKDWFDQEHPDGHRQO\DIWHU DSULRULQQRYDWLRQGHFLVLRQKDVEHHQPDGH 5RJHUV
(106) . ,QQRYDWLYHQHVVDQG$GRSWHU&DWHJRULHV. ,QQRYDWLYHQHVVLVRQHRIWKHFRQFHSWVRIEHKDYLRXUDOVFLHQFHVZLWKWKHPRVW LPPHGLDWH UHOHYDQFH WR FRQVXPHU EHKDYLRXU +LUVFKPDQ
(107) 5RJHUV
(108) GHILQHV LQQRYDWLYHQHVV DV WKH GHJUHH WR ZKLFK DQ LQGLYLGXDO LV UHODWLYHO\ HDUOLHU LQ DGRSWLQJ QHZ LGHDV WKDQ RWKHU PHPEHUV LQ WKH VRFLDO V\VWHP ,QQRYDWLYHQHVV LV D FRQWLQXRXV YDULDEOH WKDW LV RIWHQ SDUWLWLRQHG LQWR GLVFUHWH FDWHJRULHV DV D FRQFHSWXDO VLPSOLILFDWLRQ &RQVHTXHQWO\ PHPEHUV LQ D VRFLDO V\VWHP DUH WUDGLWLRQDOO\ FDWHJRULVHG LQWR ILYH DGRSWHU FDWHJRULHV EDVHG RQ WKHLU LQQRYDWLYHQHVV LQQRYDWRUV HDUO\ DGRSWHUV HDUO\ PDMRULW\ODWHPDMRULW\DQGODJJDUGV 5RJHUV
(109) $GRSWHUFDWHJRULHVDUH W\SLFDOO\FKDUDFWHULVHGE\GLIIHUHQFHVLQVRFLRHFRQRPLFVWDWXVSHUVRQDOLW\ YDOXHV DQG FRPPXQLFDWLRQ EHKDYLRXU RI WKHLU PHPEHUV 0RRUH
(110) . 8.
(111) DUJXHVWKHUHLVDGLVFRQWLQXLW\ RU³FKDVP´
(112) EHWZHHQHDUO\DGRSWHUVDQGWKH HDUO\ PDMRULW\ WKDW H[SODLQV WKH GHOD\V RU IDLOXUHV LQ WKH GLIIXVLRQ RI VRPH LQQRYDWLRQV 6LPLODUO\ 'H 0DUH] DQG 9HUOH\H
(113) VXJJHVW WKDW WKH DGRSWLRQ FXUYH RI ,&7 LQQRYDWLRQV LV GRXEOHSHDNHG UDWKHU WKDQ EHOO VKDSHG+RZHYHUSDVWUHVHDUFKGRHVQRWVKRZFRQFOXVLYHVXSSRUWIRUWKHVH FODLPVPRUHJHQHUDOO\ 5RJHUV
(114) $ VLPSOH PHWKRG WR LPSOHPHQW WKH DGRSWHU FDWHJRULVDWLRQ SURSRVHG E\ 5RJHUV
(115) LV WR DVVXPH WKDW LQGLYLGXDO LQQRYDWLYHQHVV LH DGRSWLRQV RYHU WLPH
(116) LV QRUPDOO\ GLVWULEXWHG DQG WKHQ XVH WZR EDVLF VWDWLVWLFDO SDUDPHWHUVWKHPHDQWLPHRIDGRSWLRQDQGLWVVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQWRGLYLGH DGRSWHUV LQWR WKH FDWHJRULHV DV GHSLFWHG LQ )LJXUH 0RUH FRPSOH[ H[WHQVLRQV DOORZ IRU D IOH[LEOH QXPEHU RI DGRSWHU FDWHJRULHV DV ZHOO DVWKH XVHRIRWKHUGLIIXVLRQPRGHOVEHVLGHVWKHQRUPDOGLVWULEXWLRQ HJ3HWHUVRQ DQG0DKDMDQHWDO
(117) 5RJHUV¶VLPSOHGHILQLWLRQRILQQRYDWLYHQHVVKDVEHHQVWURQJO\FULWLFLVHGIRU ERWKWKHRUHWLFDODQGPHWKRGRORJLFDOUHDVRQV HJ0LGJOH\ 'RZOLQJ +XUW HW DO
(118) &RQVXPHU LQQRYDWLYHQHVV LV JHQHUDOO\ VHHQ DV D SHUVRQDOLW\ WUDLW SRVVHVVHG E\ DOO PHPEHUV RI WKH VRFLHW\ HJ 0LGJOH\ 'RZOLQJ 5RHKULFK
(119) ZKHUHDV WLPH RI DGRSWLRQ LV REVHUYDEOH EHKDYLRXU WKDW LV VXSSRVHG WR RSHUDWLRQDOLVH WKH ODWHQW FRQVWUXFW RI LQQRYDWLYHQHVV )XUWKHUPRUH UHO\LQJ RQ WKH WLPH RI DGRSWLRQ PHWKRG LQWURGXFHV SUREOHPV UHODWHG WR WKH UHOLDELOLW\ DQG YDOLGLW\ FRPSDUDELOLW\ DQG JHQHUDOLVDELOLW\ RI WKH UHVXOWV +XUW HW DO
(120) 7KH FURVVVHFWLRQDO PHWKRG LV DQ DOWHUQDWLYH IRU PHDVXULQJ FRQVXPHU LQQRYDWLYHQHVV ,Q WKLV PHWKRG LQQRYDWLYHQHVV LV PHDVXUHG E\ GHWHUPLQLQJ KRZ PDQ\ RI D SUH VSHFLILHG OLVW RI QHZ SURGXFWV D SDUWLFXODU LQGLYLGXDO KDV SXUFKDVHG DW WKH WLPHRIWKHVXUYH\ 0LGJOH\ 'RZOLQJ
(121) +RZHYHUWKHFURVVVHFWLRQDO PHWKRGVXIIHUVIURPPDQ\RIWKHPHWKRGRORJLFDOOLPLWDWLRQVRIWKHWLPHRI DGRSWLRQ PHWKRG 0RUHRYHU WKLV PHWKRG PHDVXUHV LQQRYDWLYHQHVV DV D JOREDO SHUVRQDOLW\ WUDLW DQG WKHUHIRUH LV QRW RI PXFK XVH ZKLOH VWXG\LQJ LQQRYDWLYHQHVVZLWKLQDVSHFLILFGRPDLQ *ROGVPLWK +RIDFNHU
(122) 7KH WKHRUHWLFDO DQG PHWKRGRORJLFDO LVVXHV RI WLPH RI DGRSWLRQ DQG FURVV VHFWLRQDO PHWKRGV FDQ EH DYRLGHG E\ XVLQJ VWDQGDUGLVHG PXOWLLWHP VHOI UHSRUWVFDOHV HJ*ROGVPLWK +RIDFNHU *ROGVPLWKHWDO
(123) WKDW PHDVXUH FRQVXPHU LQQRYDWLYHQHVV E\ WDNLQJ LQWR DFFRXQW YDULRXV WKHRUHWLFDO SHUVSHFWLYHV VXFK DV QRYHOW\ VHHNLQJ LQGHSHQGHQFH RI RWKHUV¶ H[SHULHQFHV DQG QHHG IRU XQLTXHQHVV 5RHKULFK
(124) 6XFK VFDOHV KDYH EHHQ GHYHORSHG DW GLIIHUHQW OHYHOV RI JHQHUDOLW\ LQ RUGHU WR PHDVXUH ERWK JHQHUDO RU LQQDWH
(125) LQQRYDWLYHQHVV DV ZHOO DV GRPDLQVSHFLILF. 9.
(126) LQQRYDWLYHQHVV ,Q JHQHUDO D EURDGO\ GHILQHG FRQVWUXFW HJ JHQHUDO LQQRYDWLYHQHVV
(127) KDVORZHUSUHGLFWLYHYDOLGLW\RYHUVSHFLILFEHKDYLRXUEXWLV DEOHWRSUHGLFWGLYHUVHEHKDYLRXUV,QFRQWUDVWDQDUURZO\GHILQHGFRQVWUXFW HJ GRPDLQVSHFLILF LQQRYDWLYHQHVV
(128) SUHGLFWV ZLWK KLJK DFFXUDF\ ZLWKLQ D OLPLWHGUDQJHRIEHKDYLRXUV 0RVNRZLW] *ROGVPLWKHWDO
(129) $IXUWKHUGLVWLQFWLRQFDQEHPDGHEHWZHHQDGRSWLYHLQQRYDWLYHQHVVDQGXVH LQQRYDWLYHQHVVDVWKHIRUPHUUHIHUVWRH[SORUDWRU\SXUFKDVHEHKDYLRXUDQG WKHODWWHUWRYDULHW\VHHNLQJLQSURGXFWXVDJH HJ3ULFH 5LGJZD\
(130) . 'LIIXVLRQDQG6RFLDO6WUXFWXUH. 7KH VWUXFWXUH RI WKH VRFLDO V\VWHP KDV D SURIRXQG LPSDFW RQ IORZ RI FRPPXQLFDWLRQ DQG WKH UHVXOWLQJ LQQRYDWLRQ GLIIXVLRQ ZLWKLQ WKH V\VWHP 7KH QDWXUH RI FRPPXQLFDWLRQ IORZ WKURXJK VRFLDO QHWZRUNV FDQ EH XQGHUVWRRG E\ WKH FRQFHSWV RI KRPRSKLO\ DQG KHWHURSKLO\ +RPRSKLO\ LV WKH GHJUHH WR ZKLFK WZR LQGLYLGXDOV ZKR FRPPXQLFDWH DUH VLPLODU LQ HJ VRFLRHFRQRPLFVWDWXVDQGHGXFDWLRQ
(131) ZKHUHDVKHWHURSKLO\LVWKHRSSRVLWH RIKRPRSKLO\,QQRYDWLRQVGLIIXVHUDSLGO\ZLWKLQKRPRSKLORXVQHWZRUNVDV FRPPXQLFDWLRQ LV PRUH HIIHFWLYH ZKHQ VRXUFH DQG UHFHLYHU DUH KRPRSKLORXV 5RJHUV
(132) +RZHYHU FRPSOHWHO\ QHZ LQQRYDWLRQV DUH PRUHOLNHO\WREHLQWURGXFHGE\DKHWHURSKLORXVFRQWDFW7KLVLVFRQVLVWHQW ZLWK*UDQRYHWWHU¶V
(133) WKHRU\RQWKHVWUHQJWKRIZHDNWLHVWKDWSRVWXODWHV WKDWZHDNVRFLDOOLQNV LHWLHV
(134) HQDEOHUHDFKLQJSRSXODWLRQVDQGDXGLHQFHV WKDWDUHQRWDFFHVVLEOHYLDVWURQJOLQNV 7KH DFWLRQV RI FHUWDLQ NLQGV RI LQGLYLGXDOV FDQ DFFHOHUDWH DGRSWLRQ $Q ³RSLQLRQ OHDGHU´ LV DQ LQGLYLGXDO ZKR LV DEOH WR LQIOXHQFH RWKHU SHRSOH¶V DWWLWXGHV RU EHKDYLRXU 2QFH RSLQLRQ OHDGHUV DGRSW WKH\ VWDUW LQIOXHQFLQJ RWKHUSHRSOH¶VRSLQLRQVDQGWKHGLIIXVLRQDFFHOHUDWHV2SLQLRQOHDGHUVKLSLV IRXQGWREHKLJKHVWDPRQJHDUO\DGRSWHUVRILQQRYDWLRQV$³OHDGXVHU´LVD VLPLODUFRQFHSWUHIHUULQJWRDXVHUZKRVHSUHVHQWQHHGVZLOOEHFRPHJHQHUDO LQ WKH PDUNHW LQ WKH IXWXUH YRQ +LSSHO
(135) 7KHUHIRUH XQGHUVWDQGLQJ OHDG XVHUV¶ QHHGV LV EHQHILFLDO LQ SURGXFW GHYHORSPHQW )LQDOO\ D ³FKDQJH DJHQW´ LV DQ LQGLYLGXDO ZKR DWWHPSWV WR LQIOXHQFH RWKHU LQGLYLGXDOV¶ LQQRYDWLRQ GHFLVLRQV LQ D GLUHFWLRQ GHVLUHG E\ D FKDQJH DJHQF\ 5RJHUV
(136) 0RGHOV RI FRPPXQLFDWLRQ IORZV FDQ DOVR EH XVHG WR DQDO\VH WKH IORZ RI LQIRUPDWLRQ IURP PDVV PHGLD WR RSLQLRQ OHDGHUV DQG RQZDUGV 7KH K\SRGHUPLFQHHGOHPRGHOLVDPRGHORIFRPPXQLFDWLRQVFODLPLQJWKDWWKH PDVV PHGLD KDV D GLUHFW DQG LPPHGLDWH HIIHFW RQ PDVV DXGLHQFHV 7KLV PRGHO ZDV SRSXODU XQWLO WKH V DIWHU ZKLFK LW ZDV VXSHUVHGHG E\ WKH. 10.
(137) WZRVWHSIORZPRGHO /D]DUVIHOGHWDO
(138) 8QOLNHWKHK\SRGHUPLFQHHGOH PRGHO WKH WZRVWHS IORZ PRGHO HPSKDVLVHV KXPDQ DJHQF\ $FFRUGLQJO\ PDVVPHGLDLQIRUPDWLRQLVFKDQQHOOHGWRWKHPDVVPDUNHWWKURXJKRSLQLRQ OHDGHUV 7KHFULWLFDOPDVV RUWLSSLQJSRLQW
(139) LQWKHGLIIXVLRQRIDQLQQRYDWLRQRFFXUV DW WKH SRLQW DW ZKLFK HQRXJK LQGLYLGXDOV LQ D V\VWHP KDYH DGRSWHG DQ LQQRYDWLRQ VR WKDW WKH LQQRYDWLRQ¶V IXUWKHU UDWH RI DGRSWLRQ EHFRPHV VHOI VXVWDLQLQJ 5RJHUV
(140) 7KHFULWLFDOPDVVLVSDUWLFXODUO\LPSRUWDQWLQWKH FDVH RI LQWHUDFWLYH LQQRYDWLRQV VXFK DV HPDLO ZKHUH HDFK DGGLWLRQDO DGRSWHU LQFUHDVHV WKH XWLOLW\ RI DGRSWLQJ WKH LQQRYDWLRQ IRU DOO DGRSWHUV 6XFK EHQHILWV DUH RIWHQ FDOOHG QHWZRUN H[WHUQDOLWLHV RU QHWZRUN HIIHFWV
(141) EHFDXVH WKH XWLOLW\ RI WKH LQQRYDWLRQ LV H[WHUQDO WR WKH LQGLYLGXDO DGRSWHU 6KDSLUR 9DULDQ
(142) . 7KH,QQRYDWLRQ. 7KH FRQFHSW RI WHFKQRORJLFDO LQQRYDWLRQ FDQ EH GHILQHG JHQHUDOO\ DV ³DQ LWHUDWLYHSURFHVVLQLWLDWHGE\WKHSHUFHSWLRQRIDQHZPDUNHWDQGRUQHZ VHUYLFH RSSRUWXQLW\ IRU D WHFKQRORJ\EDVHG LQYHQWLRQ ZKLFK OHDGV WR GHYHORSPHQWSURGXFWLRQDQGPDUNHWLQJWDVNVVWULYLQJIRUWKHFRPPHUFLDO VXFFHVV RI WKH LQYHQWLRQ´ )UHHPDQ
(143) 7KLV GHILQLWLRQ KLJKOLJKWV WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI WHFKQRORJLFDO GHYHORSPHQW WKH PDUNHW LQWURGXFWLRQ RI WKH LQYHQWLRQWRHQGXVHUVDQGWKHVXEVHTXHQWDGRSWLRQDQGGLIIXVLRQ *DUFLD &DODQWRQH
(144) +RZHYHU LQ WKH GLIIXVLRQ RI LQQRYDWLRQV WKHRU\ DQ LQQRYDWLRQ UHIHUV PRUH UHVWULFWLYHO\ WR DQ LGHD SUDFWLFH RU REMHFW WKDW LV SHUFHLYHG DV QHZ E\ DQ LQGLYLGXDO RU RWKHU GHFLVLRQPDNLQJ VRFLDO XQLW 5RJHUV
(145) 7KHFRQFHSWRI³LQQRYDWLRQ´LVRIWHQUHSODFHGZLWKWKDWRI³QHZSURGXFW´LQ WKH GLIIXVLRQ RI LQQRYDWLRQV FRQWH[W 7\SLFDOO\ D QHZ SURGXFW UHIHUV WR D QHZSURGXFWFDWHJRU\VXFKDVWKHPRELOHKDQGVHWRUWKHWHOHYLVLRQUHFHLYHU +RZHYHUWKHFRQFHSWRI³UHDOO\QHZSURGXFW´LVDOVRVRPHWLPHVXVHG HJ 8UEDQ HW DO *DUFLD &DODQWRQH
(146) WR PDNH WKH GLVWLQFWLRQ EHWZHHQFRPSOHWHO\QHZSURGXFWFDWHJRULHVRUUHYROXWLRQDULO\QHZSURGXFW PRGHOV DQG PRUH LQFUHPHQWDO LQQRYDWLRQ PDQLIHVWLQJ LQ QHZ SURGXFW PRGHOV DQG YDULDQWV 1HZ XQLWV DUH W\SLFDOO\ QRW UHIHUUHG WR DV QHZ SURGXFWVLQWKHGLIIXVLRQOLWHUDWXUHDOWKRXJKWKHVDOHRIQHZXQLWVZLWKLQD SURGXFWFDWHJRU\LVWKHWRSLFRILQWHUHVWLQUHSODFHPHQWVDOHVPRGHOOLQJ VHH 6HFWLRQIRUGHWDLOV
(147) 7KHFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRILQQRYDWLRQVDVSHUFHLYHGE\LQGLYLGXDOVFDQDOVRKHOS WR H[SODLQ WKHLU GLIIHUHQW UDWHV RI DGRSWLRQ 5RJHUV
(148) LGHQWLILHV ILYH. 11.
(149) VXFKDWWULEXWHV³5HODWLYHDGYDQWDJH´LVWKHGHJUHHWRZKLFKDQLQQRYDWLRQLV SHUFHLYHG VXSHULRU WR WKH LQQRYDWLRQ LW VXSHUVHGHV ³&RPSDWLELOLW\´ LV WKH GHJUHH WR ZKLFK DQ LQQRYDWLRQ LV SHUFHLYHG FRQVLVWHQW ZLWK WKH H[LVWLQJ YDOXHV KDELWV SDVW H[SHULHQFHV DQG QHHGV RI D SRWHQWLDO DGRSWHU ³&RPSOH[LW\´ LV WKH GHJUHH WR ZKLFK DQ LQQRYDWLRQ LVSHUFHLYHG GLIILFXOWWR XQGHUVWDQG DQG XVH ³7ULDODELOLW\´ LV WKH SHUFHLYHG GHJUHH WR ZKLFK DQ LQQRYDWLRQPD\EHH[SHULPHQWHGZLWKRQDOLPLWHGEDVLV³2EVHUYDELOLW\´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
(150) FRQVLVWVRI ³RQHRUPRUHGLVWLQJXLVKDEOHHOHPHQWVRIWHFKQRORJ\WKDWDUHSHUFHLYHGDV EHLQJ FORVHO\ LQWHUUHODWHG´ 5RJHUV
(151) 7KH GLIIXVLRQ RI WHFKQRORJLHV EHORQJLQJ WR D WHFKQRORJ\ FOXVWHU LV LQWHUGHSHQGHQW ,Q IDFW LW KDV EHHQ DUJXHG WKDW WKH RZQHUVKLS RI UHODWHG WHFKQRORJ\ SURGXFWV SUHGLFWV WKH DGRSWLRQ RI D QHZ SURGXFW EHWWHU WKDQ 5RJHUV¶
(152) FODVVLF SHUFHLYHG LQQRYDWLRQ FKDUDFWHULVWLFV HJ 5HDJDQ 9LVKZDQDWK &KHQ
(153) :KLOH WKH WHFKQRORJLHV IRUPLQJ D FOXVWHU WHQG WR EH FRPSDWLEOH ZLWK HDFK RWKHU DQG SRVVHVV RWKHU VLPLODU FKDUDFWHULVWLFV LW KDV DOVR EHHQ VXJJHVWHG WKDW WHFKQRORJ\ FOXVWHUV DUH QRW IRUPHG E\ WKHLU SHUFHLYHG DWWULEXWHV EXW UDWKHU GXH WR WKHLU VKDUHG LQIUDVWUXFWXUH $WNLQ /D5RVH
(154) &KDQJH DJHQFLHVRIWHQEXQGOHWHFKQRORJLHVLQRUGHUWRIDFLOLWDWHDGRSWLRQ 0DQ\ WHFKQRORJLFDO LQQRYDWLRQV DUH IXQGDPHQWDOO\ V\VWHPLF VR WKDW WKHLU EHQHILWV FDQ EH DWWDLQHG RQO\ LQ FRQMXQFWLRQ ZLWK UHODWHG FRPSOHPHQWDU\ WHFKQRORJLHV &KHVEURXJK 7HHFH
(155) 6LPLODUO\ ³FRPSOH[ JRRGV´ RU SURGXFWV FDQ EH GHILQHG DV V\VWHPV ZLWK FRPSRQHQWV WKDW KDYH PXOWLSOH LQWHUUHODWLRQV DQG FRQVWLWXWH D QRQGHFRPSRVDEOH ZKROH 7KH RYHUDOO SHUIRUPDQFH RI VXFK JRRGV GHSHQGV RQ WKH SHUIRUPDQFH RI LQGLYLGXDO FRPSRQHQWV WKDW DOVRUHTXLUH FORVH FRQILJXUDWLRQ 0LWFKHOO 6LQJK
(156) ,QFUHDVHG SURGXFW FRPSOH[LW\ LV DOVR UHFRJQLVHG DV DQ HPHUJLQJ WRSLF RI GLIIXVLRQ UHVHDUFK 5HQDQD HW DO
(157) $ IXUWKHU GLVWLQFWLRQ RI V\VWHPLF WHFKQRORJ\ LQQRYDWLRQ FDQ EH PDGH EHWZHHQ WKH FRPSRQHQWVRI D SURGXFW DQGWKHZD\VWKH\DUHLQWHJUDWHGLQWRWKHV\VWHP,Q³PRGXODULQQRYDWLRQ´ RQO\ WKH WHFKQRORJ\ FRPSRQHQWV RI D V\VWHP DUH FKDQJHG ZKHUHDV LQ ³DUFKLWHFWXUDO LQQRYDWLRQ´ WKH UHODWLRQVKLSV EHWZHHQ WKH FRPSRQHQWV RI D. 12.
(158) V\VWHP DUH UHFRQILJXUHG +HQGHUVRQ &ODUN
(159) 7KH VHUYLFH VFLHQFH WDNHVDEURDGHUYLHZRQWKHWRSLFDQGGHILQHV³VHUYLFHV\VWHPV´DVYDOXHFR FUHDWLRQ FRQILJXUDWLRQV RI SHRSOH WHFKQRORJ\ RWKHU LQWHUQDO DQG H[WHUQDO VHUYLFHV\VWHPVDQGVKDUHGLQIRUPDWLRQ 0DJOLR 6SRKUHU6SRKUHU HWDO
(160) )LQDOO\$GRPDYLFLXVHWDO
(161) SURSRVHDFRQFHSWXDO PRGHORI³WHFKQRORJ\HFRV\VWHPV´FRQVLVWLQJRISRSXODWLRQVRIWHFKQRORJLHV RUJDQLVHG. DV. RYHUODSSLQJ. KLHUDUFKLHV. DQG. KDYLQJ. PXOWLSOH. LQWHUUHODWLRQVKLSV 7KH QDWXUH RI WHFKQRORJLFDO LQQRYDWLRQ KDV EHHQ ZLGHO\ GLVFXVVHG LQ WKH OLWHUDWXUH $FFRUGLQJO\ LQQRYDWLRQV DQG WHFKQRORJLHV KDYH EHHQ FKDUDFWHULVHG. DV. LQFUHPHQWDOUDGLFDO. FRQWLQXRXVGLVFRQWLQXRXV. HYROXWLRQDU\UHYROXWLRQDU\ HJ $EHUQDWK\ 8WWHUEDFN 7XVKPDQ $QGHUVRQ DQG 3RUWHU
(162) DQG VXVWDLQLQJGLVUXSWLYH %RZHU &KULVWHQVHQ &KULVWHQVHQ
(163) 7KHVH SDUWO\ RYHUODSSLQJ FRQFHSWV DUH W\SLFDOO\ UHODWHG WR SHUIRUPDQFH LPSURYHPHQW SURYLGHG E\ WKH QHZ WHFKQRORJLFDOLQQRYDWLRQV6LPLODUO\GLIIXVLRQUHVHDUFKKDVEHHQFRQGXFWHG RQ VXFFHVVLYH JHQHUDWLRQV RI WHFKQRORJLHV ,Q VXFK UHVHDUFK D QHZ JHQHUDWLRQ LV GHILQHG E\ D VLJQLILFDQW SHUIRUPDQFH LPSURYHPHQW RI WKH GLIIXVLQJWHFKQRORJ\ HJ,VODP 0HDGH
(164) . 2.2. Mathematical Innovation Diffusion Models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
(165) FXUYH $OWHUQDWLYH WKHRUHWLFDO PRGHOV KDYH EHHQ SURSRVHG WR H[SODLQ WKLV IRUP DQG PXFK RI GLIIXVLRQ UHVHDUFK FRQFHQWUDWHV RQ WKH PDWKHPDWLFDO PRGHOOLQJ RI WKH GLIIXVLRQSURFHVV7KHHSLGHPLFPRGHODQGWKHSURELWPRGHODUHDPRQJWKH PRVW SRSXODU W\SHV RI GLIIXVLRQ PRGHOV DOWKRXJK OHVV ZHOONQRZQ DOWHUQDWLYHV VXFK DV SODQW JURZWK PRGHOV DUH DOVR VRPHWLPHV DSSOLHG 0DULQDNLV
(166) 7KHHSLGHPLFPRGHORIGLIIXVLRQQDPHGDIWHULWVDQDORJ\ZLWKWKHVSUHDGRI FRQWDJLRXV GLVHDVHV LV WKH PRVW SRSXODU H[SODQDWLRQ RI WKH 6FXUYH. 13.
(167) *HURVNL
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
(169) ,Q VXFK PRGHOVXVHUVDUHGLYLGHGLQWRWZRW\SHVWKRVHPRUHVXVFHSWLEOHWRFHQWUDO VRXUFHLQIRUPDWLRQ VRPHWLPHVFDOOHG³LQQRYDWRUV´
(170) DQGWKRVHZKRLQVLVWRQ UHFHLYLQJ ZRUGRIPRXWK LQIRUPDWLRQ EHIRUH DGRSWLRQ VRPHWLPHV FDOOHG ³LPLWDWRUV´
(171) 7KH HSLGHPLF PRGHO LV SUHGRPLQDQW ZLWKLQ PDUNHWLQJ DQG VRFLRORJ\DPRQJRWKHUGLVFLSOLQHV 7KH SURELW PRGHO RI GLIIXVLRQ 'DYLG
(172) LVWKH SULPH DOWHUQDWLYH WRWKH HSLGHPLF PRGHO ,Q SURELW PRGHOV WKH GLIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ DGRSWHUV HJ LQGLYLGXDOV KRXVHKROGV FRPSDQLHV
(173) H[SODLQ SDWWHUQV RI GLIIXVLRQ ,Q VXFK PRGHOV WKH SRWHQWLDO DGRSWHUV GLIIHU LQ VRPH FKDUDFWHULVWLF HJ FRPSDQ\ VL]H
(174) WKDW DIIHFWV WKH EHQHILW IURP DGRSWLQJ WKH QHZ WHFKQRORJ\ 7KLV FKDUDFWHULVWLF LV GLVWULEXWHG DFURVV WKH SRSXODWLRQ DFFRUGLQJ WR VRPH IXQFWLRQ HJ QRUPDO GLVWULEXWLRQ
(175) $GRSWLRQ ZLOO WDNH SODFH ZKHQ WKH FKDUDFWHULVWLF H[FHHGV D WKUHVKROG OHYHO HJ FRVW RI DGRSWLRQ
(176) 'LIIXVLRQ SURJUHVVHV ZKHQ WKH WKUHVKROG RU WKH EHQHILW IURP DGRSWLRQ FKDQJH LH ZKHQ WKH FRVW GHFUHDVHV DQGRU WKH EHQHILW LQFUHDVHV 7KH SURELW PRGHO IRFXVHV RQWKHSRWHQWLDO GHWHUPLQDQWVRI GLIIXVLRQ DQG WKHUHIRUH HQDEOHV WKH DQDO\VLV RI WKH DFWLRQV RI VSHFLILF DGRSWHUV HJ FRPSDQLHV
(177) XQOLNH HSLGHPLF PRGHOV WKDW FRQFHUQ WKHPVHOYHV ZLWK WKH PDUNHW RQ DJJUHJDWH *HURVNL
(178) 7KHSURELWPRGHOLVSDUWLFXODUO\SRSXODUDPRQJHFRQRPLVWV 6WRQHPDQ
(179) $OO LQ DOO WKH FKRLFH EHWZHHQ HSLGHPLF PRGHOV DQG SURELW PRGHOV LV QRW GHFLVLYH (SLGHPLF PRGHOV FDQ EH H[WHQGHG ZLWK GHFLVLRQ YDULDEOHV HJ PDUNHWLQJPL[
(180) WRDOORZIRUKHWHURJHQHRXVSRSXODWLRQVZKHUHDVDOOGULYHUV RI GLIIXVLRQ IHDWXULQJ LQ HSLGHPLF PRGHOV FDQ DOVR EH H[SUHVVHG LQ SURELW IRUP *HURVNL
(181) . 'LIIXVLRQ6XEVWLWXWLRQDQG5HSODFHPHQW0RGHOV. 'LIIXVLRQ PRGHOV KDYH EHHQ H[WHQGHG WR IRUHFDVW WKH XQLW VDOHV RI QHZ SURGXFWV EH\RQG ILUVW SXUFKDVHV 6XFK PRGHOV KDYH LQFRUSRUDWHG SURGXFW. 14.
(182) UHSODFHPHQWV DQG VXEVWLWXWLRQV DV ZHOO DV PXOWLSOH JHQHUDWLRQV DQG FDWHJRULHVRIWKHSURGXFWV %DVLFGLIIXVLRQPRGHOVVXFKDVWKHFODVVLFDO%DVVPRGHO %DVV
(183) GHSLFW WKHJURZWKRIWKHQXPEHURILQQRYDWLRQDGRSWHUVDQGVHUYHWKHSXUSRVHRI IRUHFDVWLQJWKHILUVWSXUFKDVHVDOHVRIQHZSURGXFWV 0DKDMDQHWDO
(184) +RZHYHU DV GLIIXVLRQ SURJUHVVHV DQG WKH SURGXFW PDWXUHV ILUVW SXUFKDVH XQLWV DUH UHSODFHG E\ QHZHU XQLWV DQG WRWDO XQLW VDOHV HYHQWXDOO\ EHFRPH GRPLQDWHG E\ UHSODFHPHQW SXUFKDVHV 5HSODFHPHQW SXUFKDVH PRGHOV HJ 2OVRQ &KRL DQG .DPDNXUD %DODVXEUDPDQLDQ
(185) GHFRPSRVH WRWDOXQLWVDOHVLQWRILUVWSXUFKDVHVDQGUHSODFHPHQWSXUFKDVHV(PSKDVLVLV SODFHGRQPRGHOOLQJWKHSURFHVVWKDWGULYHVFXUUHQWRZQHUVRIWKHSURGXFW WRGLVFDUGWKHZRUQRXWRUREVROHWHXQLWVDQGUHSODFHWKHPZLWKQHZXQLWV ZKLFK LV W\SLFDOO\ DFKLHYHG E\ PDNLQJ DVVXPSWLRQV DERXW WKH OLIHWLPH RI VROGSURGXFWV ,VODP 0HDGH
(186) 0RGHOVRIWHFKQRORJLFDOVXEVWLWXWLRQ HJ )LVKHU 3U\
(187) DVVXPH WKDW D QHZ WHFKQRORJ\ RU SURGXFW FRPSOHWHO\ VXEVWLWXWHV LWV SUHGHFHVVRU DQG HQDEOH WKH HVWLPDWLRQ RI WKH PDUNHWVKDUHVRIWKHDOWHUQDWLYHWHFKQRORJLHVDWDJLYHQWLPH 7HFKQRORJ\ GLIIXVLRQ DQG VXEVWLWXWLRQ KDYH EHHQ FRPELQHG LQ FDWHJRULFDO DQG JHQHUDWLRQDO PRGHOV 'LIIXVLRQ PRGHOV LQFRUSRUDWLQJ SURGXFW VXE FDWHJRULHVKDYHEHHQXVHGWRDQDO\VHWKHHIIHFWRIIRULQVWDQFHFRPSHWLQJ VWDQGDUGVDQGEUDQGVRQSURGXFWGLIIXVLRQUDWHVDQGPDUNHWSRWHQWLDO HJ 0DKDMDQHWDO .ULVKQDQHWDO
(188) 0XOWLJHQHUDWLRQDOPRGHOVKDYH EHHQ GHYHORSHG IRU PRGHOOLQJ WKH GLIIXVLRQ RI VXFFHVVLYH JHQHUDWLRQV RI WHFKQRORJ\ SURGXFWV ,Q VXFK PRGHOV WKH GLIIXVLRQ RI D QHZ SURGXFW JHQHUDWLRQUHVXOWVQRWRQO\IURPILUVWSXUFKDVHVEXWDOVRIURPVXEVWLWXWLRQV RI SUHYLRXV JHQHUDWLRQV¶ XQLWV (YHQWXDOO\ WKH QHZ SURGXFW JHQHUDWLRQ GLIIXVHV WR D ZLGHU SRSXODWLRQ RI XVHUV DQG WKH VDOHV RI WKH SUHYLRXV JHQHUDWLRQV¶ XQLWV HQG 7KH ZRUN E\ 1RUWRQ %DVV
(189) RQ PXOWLJHQHUDWLRQDO PRGHOV KDV EHHQ ODWHU H[WHQGHG DQG DSSOLHG E\ IRU LQVWDQFH 0DKDMDQ 0XOOHU
(190) DQG ,VODP 0HDGH
(191) .LP HW DO
(192) DQG &KX 3DQ
(193) FRPELQH JHQHUDWLRQDO PRGHOV ZLWK FDWHJRULFDO PRGHOV WR DQDO\VH WKH GLIIXVLRQ RI PXOWLSOH SURGXFWV WKDW FRPSHWH WR IXOILO WKH VDPH IXQFWLRQ HJ DQDORJXH DQG GLJLWDO PRELOH WHOHSKRQHVDQGSDJHUV
(194) . 2.3. Diffusion and Related Theoretical Domains. 7UDGLWLRQDO GLIIXVLRQ UHVHDUFK PHDVXUHV DGRSWLRQ DV D VLPSOH ELQDU\ GHFLVLRQ RI DGRSWLRQ RU UHMHFWLRQ (YHQ VR WKH SRVWDGRSWLRQ XVH RI WKH WHFKQRORJ\ LV LPSRUWDQW LQ GHVFULELQJ WKH VXFFHVV DQG IDLOXUH RI IRUPDOO\. 15.
(195) DGRSWHG WHFKQRORJLHV DQG WKH WUXH H[WHQW RI GLIIXVLRQ HJ 5REHUWVRQ *DWLJQRQ
(196) 3DUWV RI WKH RYHUDOO SURFHVV FRYHULQJ ERWK DGRSWLRQ DQG SRVWDGRSWLRQSKDVHVDUHLQWKHIRFXVRIVHYHUDOWKHRUHWLFDOLQWHUGLVFLSOLQDU\ GRPDLQV LQFOXGLQJ GLIIXVLRQ DGRSWLRQ GRPHVWLFDWLRQ XVHV DQG JUDWLILFDWLRQDQGFRQVXPHUEHKDYLRXU7KHVHGRPDLQVYDU\EDVHGRQWKHLU SULPDU\ IRFXV RQ WKH DGRSWLRQ RU WKH SRVWDGRSWLRQ SKDVH DQG RQ WKH DJJUHJDWH RU LQGLYLGXDO YLHZ WDNHQ RQ DGRSWHUV DQG XVHUV 7KH GLIIHUHQW GRPDLQV FDQ EH SRVLWLRQHG URXJKO\ EDVHG RQ WKHVH WZR GLPHQVLRQV DV LOOXVWUDWHGLQ)LJXUH /(9(/2) $1$/<6,6 $JJUHJDWH PDFUR. 'LIIXVLRQ &RQVXPHU EHKDYLRXU. 'RPHVWLFDWLRQ. ,QGLYLGXDO PLFUR. $GRSWLRQ 1RQDGRSWHUV. )LJXUH. 8VHVDQG *UDWLILFDWLRQ $GRSWHUV. 8VHUV. 3+$6(2) ,17(5(67. . 5HODWLYHSRVLWLRQVRIGLIIXVLRQDQGUHODWHGWKHRUHWLFDOGRPDLQV. 'LIIXVLRQ UHVHDUFK LWVHOI LV FRQGXFWHG LQ D UDQJH RI DFDGHPLF GLVFLSOLQHV LQFOXGLQJ VRFLRORJ\ PDUNHWLQJ DQG FRPPXQLFDWLRQ 'LIIXVLRQ VWXGLHV FRQFHQWUDWHRQWKHDJJUHJDWHGLIIXVLRQRIDWHFKQRORJ\ZLWKLQIRULQVWDQFH DQRUJDQLVDWLRQDFRPPXQLW\RUWKHVRFLHW\LQJHQHUDO 5RJHUV
(197) 7KH ³XVHGLIIXVLRQ PRGHO´ 6KLK 9HQNDWHVK
(198) DWWHPSWV WR FRPSOHPHQW WKLV FODVVLFDO DGRSWLRQGLIIXVLRQ SHUVSHFWLYH E\ LQVSHFWLQJ SRVWDGRSWLRQ XVH RI DQ LQQRYDWLRQ 7KH IRFXV RI WKH XVHGLIIXVLRQ PRGHO LV RQ UDWH DQG YDULHW\RIXVHLQVWHDGRIWLPLQJDQGUDWHRIDGRSWLRQ&RQVHTXHQWO\WKHXVHU SRSXODWLRQLVGLYLGHGLQWRLQWHQVHVSHFLDOLVHGQRQVSHFLDOLVHGDQGOLPLWHG XVHUV IROORZLQJ WKHVH GLPHQVLRQV LQVWHDG RI 5RJHUV¶
(199) FODVVLFDO VHJPHQWV LQQRYDWRUVHDUO\DGRSWHUVHWF
(200) $GRSWLRQ UHVHDUFK EHORQJV WR WKH GRPDLQ RI LQIRUPDWLRQ V\VWHPV VFLHQFH 7\SLFDOO\ LW IRFXVHV RQ WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ DQG FRPPXQLFDWLRQ WHFKQRORJ\ DGRSWLRQGHFLVLRQVRILQGLYLGXDOVLQWKHRUJDQLVDWLRQDOFRQWH[WE\DSSO\LQJ. 16.
(201) WKHRULHVDQGPRGHOVRIGHFLVLRQPDNLQJ7KHPRVWSRSXODUVXFKPRGHOVDUH WKHWKHRU\RIUHDVRQHGDFWLRQRU75$ )LVKEHLQ $M]HQ
(202) WKHWKHRU\RI SODQQHG EHKDYLRXURU 73% $M]HQ
(203) WKH WHFKQRORJ\ DFFHSWDQFH PRGHO RU 7$0 'DYLV
(204) DQG WKH XQLILHG WKHRU\ RI DFFHSWDQFH DQG XVH RI WHFKQRORJ\ RU 87$87 9HQNDWHVK HW DO
(205) 6HYHUDO KXQGUHG VWXGLHV H[WHQGLQJDQGDSSO\LQJWKHVHWKHRULHVKDYHEHHQSXEOLVKHG 'RPHVWLFDWLRQ UHVHDUFK LV D WRSLF RI VRFLDO VFLHQFHV VWXG\LQJ WKH VRFLHWDO FRQVHTXHQFHVRIWKHGRPHVWLFDWLRQ LHWDPLQJ
(206) RIWHFKQRORJ\WKHSURFHVV LQZKLFKWKHXVHRIDFHUWDLQWHFKQRORJ\EHFRPHVLQWHJUDWHGLQWRHYHU\GD\ OLIH 7KURXJKRXW WKLV SURFHVV WKH WHFKQRORJLHV DUH DGDSWHG WR XVHUV¶ HYHU\GD\ SUDFWLFHV WKH XVHUV DQG WKHLU HQYLURQPHQW DGDSW WR WKH WHFKQRORJ\ DQG WKHVH DGDSWDWLRQV XOWLPDWHO\ VKDSH WKH QH[W JHQHUDWLRQ RI WKH WHFKQRORJ\ 6LOYHUVWRQH +LUVFK
(207) 'RPHVWLFDWLRQ VWXGLHV KDYH EHHQ FRQGXFWHG RQ ERWK LQGLYLGXDOV DQG DJJUHJDWHV DQG FRYHUHG WHFKQRORJLHV VXFK DV IL[HG WHOHSKRQ\ WHOHYLVLRQ DQG KRPH FRPSXWHUV 3HGHUVHQ /LQJ
(208) 8VHVDQG*UDWLILFDWLRQVUHVHDUFKKDVLWVRULJLQLQPHGLDDQGFRPPXQLFDWLRQ WKHRU\ DQG VWXGLHV WKH JUDWLILFDWLRQ LH VDWLVIDFWLRQ
(209) VRXJKW E\ XVHUV RI GLIIHUHQW PHGLD 7KH SULQFLSOH LQ XVHV DQG JUDWLILFDWLRQV UHVHDUFK LV WKDW LQGLYLGXDO XVHUV VHHN JUDWLILFDWLRQ LQ WHFKQRORJ\ XVH EDVHG RQ WKHLU LQGLYLGXDO QHHGV RU PRWLYDWLRQV .DW] HW DO
Related documents