DEFINING CONCEPTS OF 5
THGENERATION WARFARE
BY
MAJOR I-R MINHAS , PAKISTAN ARMY
DEFINING CONCEPTS OF 5
THGENERATION WARFARE
―If we acknowledge that the new principles of war are no longer "using armed force to compel the enemy to submit to one's will," but rather are "using all means, including armed force or non-armed force, military and non-military, and lethal and non-lethal means to compel the enemy to accept one's interests."
(Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui, PLA)1
1. Introduction. Technology today has benefited mankind more then science itself and is becoming increasingly dazzling and uncontrollable. As all fields of life have been revolutionized by the technology, much deeper effects have been left on warfare and conduct of war. The technologically defined gap between conduct of war by two belligerents is evident from Gulf War and US invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan. As difference in war technology increases, the methods to tackle each other have increased manifold. Resultantly, an ambiguous and uncertain, though comparatively less lethal, phenomenon of waging war emerges; which is commonly described as Fifth Generation Warfare (5th GW).
2. Some see the Fifth Generation as a product of new technologies, such as nanotechnology. Others define it as the state's struggle to maintain its monopoly on war and social organization in the face of Fourth Generation challengers. One correspondent defined it as terrorist acts done by one group in such a manner
1 Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui, Unrestricted Warfare. (PLA Literature and Arts Publishing House.
that they are blamed on another, something traditionally known as "pseudo-operations." 2
3. Information warfare, electronic warfare, high-tech warfare, media, economic sanctions and ties, terrorism etc, etc are so diverse aspect of modern warfare that one really confuses its kind, type and sensitivity. 9/11 was another such incident which has brought generational shift in warfare. Whoever is first to recognize, understand, and implement a generational change can gain a decisive advantage. Conversely, a nation that is slow to adapt to generational change opens itself to catastrophic defeat3.
4. Aim. To carryout an analysis of recent happening in the world confirming
various definitions and concepts of 5GW spelled by various think tanks, with a view to determine future trends in warfare.
5. Scope. The paper will though refer all generations of warfare and its genesis; an exclusive analysis will be carried out of recent world happenings in 21st century.
2
William S. Lind, Fifth Generation Warfare, Discussion [online available] http://www.military.com/NewContent/0,13190,Lind_020304,00.htm
3William S. Lind and Colonel Nightingale, The Changing Face of War: Into the Fourth Generation (US
PART I
EVOLUTION OF WARFARE
6. Genesis of Warfare4. Thinking about future of war requires careful reflection on its past. The modern fascination with cutting edge technology and its undeniable impact of war often obscures our view of war‘s other dimensions. Historians have widely noticed the social, political and economic factors in shaping the evolution of conflict. Cultural and intellectual changes have played a powerful role as thinking about the future have influenced the way we speculate about war so much that we often use them.
7. Defining Generations of Warfare. If we look into historical prospective we observe that the generational evolution in warfare was so abrupt in one hand like advent of muskets or nuclear weapons and so smooth on the other hand like terrorism. Thus global academia also differs widely in defining border lines of these generational shifts. Above all some elements of one may carry over to other generation.
a. First Generation. First generation warfare reflects tactics of the
era of the smoothbore musket, the tactics of line and column. These tactics were developed partially in response to technological factors — the line maximized firepower, rigid drill was necessary to generate a high rate of fire, etc.— and partially in response to social conditions and ideas, e.g., the columns of the French revolutionary armies reflected both the élan of the revolution and the low training levels of conscripted troops. Although rendered obsolete with the
replacement of the smoothbore by the rifled musket, vestiges of first generation tactics survive today, especially in a frequently encountered desire for linearity on the battlefield5.
b. Second Generation. Second generation warfare was a response
to the rifled musket, breechloaders, barbed wire, the machinegun, and indirect fire. Tactics were based on fire and movement, and they remained essentially linear. The defense still attempted to prevent all penetrations, and in the attack a laterally dispersed line advanced by rushes in small groups. Perhaps the principal change from first generation tactics was heavy reliance on indirect fire; second generation tactics were summed up in the French maxim, "the artillery conquers, the infantry occupies." Massed firepower replaced massed manpower. While ideas played a role in the development of second generation tactics (particularly the idea of lateral dispersion), technology was the principal driver of change.6. c. Second Generation. Third generation warfare was also a
response to the increase in battlefield firepower. However, the driving force was primarily ideas. Aware they could not prevail in a contest of materiel because of their weaker industrial base in World War I, the Germans developed radically new tactics. Based on maneuver rather than attrition, third generation tactics were the first truly nonlinear tactics. The attack relied on infiltration to bypass and
5 Ibid. 6 Ibid.
collapse the enemy's combat forces rather than seeking to close with and destroy them. The defense was in depth and often invited penetration, which set the enemy up for a counterattack. While the basic concepts of third generation tactics were in place by the end of 1918, the addition of a new technological element-tanks-brought about a major shift at the operational level in World War II. That shift was blitzkrieg7.
d. Fourth Generation. This is perhaps the shortest era and can be easily defined as transitional in nature. Where states took on non-state actors or vice versa. A non-national or transnational base, such as an ideology or religion; highly sophisticated psychological warfare, especially through manipulation of the media, are key characteristics of this generation. In-fact, as W.S. Lind and Colonel Nightingale predicted, it is idea of poor and low-tech nations / groups fighting against low-technology of westernized and developed nations.
e. Fourth generation warfare uses all available networks—political, economic, social, and military—to convince the enemy‘s political decision makers that their strategic goals are either unachievable or too costly for the perceived benefit. It is an evolved form of insurgency8.
7 Ibid.
8 Colonel T. X. Hammes, Fourth Generation Warfare Evolves, Fifth Emerges, (Military Review May-June
8. While concluding above discussion one can safely say that first three generations were technology or its anti-dote driven state VS state affairs. The fourth generation saw active participation of non-state actors and other less lethal means of combat. However, as this threatened civilian targets while bypassing military it has urged for more rapid response and thus transform itself quickly. 9. Transition to next Generation9. Current events suggest that there are a number of ongoing major developments in 4GW: a strategic shift, an organizational shift, and a shift in type of participants.
a. Strategic Shift10. Strategically, insurgent campaigns have shifted from military campaigns supported by information operations to strategic communications campaigns supported by guerrilla and terrorist operations.
b. Organizational Shift11. The emergence of civil war as a part of insurgency is based on the major organizational shift that has occurred since Mao formulated his concept. It reflects the continuous, worldwide shift from hierarchical to networked organizations. While the Chinese and Vietnamese insurgencies were hierarchies that reflected both the social organizations of those societies and the dominant business and military organizations of the time, recent insurgencies have been networked coalitions of the willing.
9 Ibid, P.14
10 Ibid, P.15 11 Ibid, P.15-16
c. Shift in Participants12. Even within a single country, the highly diverse armed groups that make up a modern insurgency have widely differing motivations. These motivations can be reactionary, opportunistic and ideological as well.
10. Fifth Generation Warfare. Evolution of 4th GW was comparatively quick and has been the dominant form of warfare for many years, it‘s time for 5th
GW to make an appearance. We should be able to get some idea of what this new form of war will be by examining how political, social, and economic systems have changed since 4th GW became dominant. To deal with the numerous changes in 4th GW, we will have to find new ways to provide that essential security while building the political coalitions. First we must define what 5th GW will look like, here are some explanations from different military thinkers:-
a. Fifth-generation warfare will result from the continued shift of political and social loyalties to causes rather than nations. It will be marked by the increasing power of smaller and smaller entities and the explosion of biotechnology. 5GW will truly be a nets-and-jets war: networks will distribute the key information, provide a source for the necessary equipment and material, and constitute a field from which to recruit volunteers; the jets will provide for worldwide, inexpensive, effective dissemination of the weapons.13
b. Mark my post: this century is all about biology, rising food demand - and thus dependencies exacerbated by climate change (see the
12 Ibid, P.16-17 13 Ibid, P. 23
buying-up of arable land in Africa by Arab and Asian nations), and thus biological terror comes to the fore. Forget about energy nets, because they all go far more localized with smart grids, co-located generation/distribution, etc. It's food that will be the most vulnerable global network in the future14.
c. Things would be bad enough with just fourth generation opponents but as the research on global guerrillas has borne out, a new more dangerous generation is forming: potentially a 5th generation of warfare. Much of this new generation was derived and accelerated in cauldron of Iraq, just as the basis for 3rd generation of warfare was proved out in the Spanish Civil war15.
d. Welcome to 5G warfare. There's a war going on in America today: an information war, being waged digitally. It's not physically violent — but it's culturally, socially, and economically violent. And its ultimate goal is that of any war: political defeat. 4G war was network against state. Think Al-Qaeda vs America. 5G war is network against network, market against market, community against community.16 14 http://battleland.blogs.time.com/2011/06/08/the-future-of-5th-generation-warfare-follow-the-food/#ixzz1aaS2mITi 15
W.B.Lind, THE CHANGING FACE OF WAR: Into the 5th Generation (5GW) [online available] http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/2006/10/the_changing_fa.html
16 Umair Haqque, Ten Rules of 5th GW,( Havard Business Review August, 2009), [online available]
PART II
21ST CENTURY ENVIRONMENT
“Military institutions and the manner in which they employ violence depended on the economic, social and political conditions of their respective states.”
Clausewitz17
11. The Gulf War. Everyone who has lived through the last decade of the 20th century will have a profound sense of the changes in the world. We don't believe that there is anyone who would claim that there has been any decade in history in which the changes have been greater than those of this decade. Naturally, the causes behind the enormous changes are too numerous to mention, but there are only a few reasons that people bring up repeatedly. One of those is the Gulf War. A war which changed the world ultimately changed war itself. From this point on, war will no longer be what it was originally. Which is to say that, if in the days to come mankind has no choice but to engage in war, it can no longer be carried out in the ways with which we are familiar?18
12. The Century’s Trigger. No doubts, 9/11 can be called as an event that triggers most of the happenings in the world in new century. It brought a revolutionized change in global politics, economics, and relations and even in definition and conduct of warfare. This event can also be defined as evolution stage of fifth generation warfare from fourth one. In 1989, W.S Lind and his fellow
17
Carl von Clausewitz, On War, ed. Michael Howard and Peter Paret (Princeton, NJ: Princeton UP, 1989), P6.
18 Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui, Unrestricted Warfare. (PLA Literature and Arts Publishing House.
writers predicted; ―We are not suggesting terrorism is the fourth generation. It is not a new phenomenon, and so far it has proven largely ineffective. However, what do we see if we combine terrorism with some of the new technology we have discussed? For example, that effectiveness might the terrorist have if his car bomb were a product of genetic engineering rather than high explosives?‖19
13. Ingredients of 5th GW. While we take a look at global developments and military academia, it is obvious that elements of older generations of warfare may continue in refined, modified, or original shape in new evolving generations. This should not be surprising that countries those lack the political, social, and economic systems to support new forms of war will continue to use the older forms. Yet a new generation must also evolve and, given the fact that 4th GW has been the dominant form of warfare for over 50 years, it‘s time for 5th
GW to make an appearance. We should be able to get some idea of what this new form of war will be by examining how political, social, and economic systems have changed since 4th GW became dominant.20 Some prominent features of this generation are:-
a. Participants. There have been major changes in who fights wars. The trend has been and continues to be downward from nation-states using huge, uniformed armies to small groups of like-minded people with no formal organization who simply choose to fight. We have slid so far away from national armies that often it is impossible to differentiate fighters from simple criminal elements.
19 W.S. Lind and others; The Changing Face of War: Into the Fourth Generation
20 Colonel T. X. Hammes, Fourth Generation Warfare Evolves, Fifth Emerges, (Military Review May-June
Many of the former are, in fact, criminal elements–either they use crime to support their cause or they use their cause to legitimize their crime.21
b. Communication. we have seen a steady increase in the power
of information. Insurgent groups have seized on the improving information grid to execute the strategic communications campaigns that are central to their victories. The content and delivery of information has accordingly shifted from the mass propaganda of Mao to highly tailored campaigns enabled by the new methods of communication and new social patterns. Insurgents have been quick to exploit such powerful communication tools as the cell phone and the Internet for recruiting, training, communicating, educating, and controlling new members. They have shifted from mass mobilization to targeted individual mobilization.22
c. Network Economics. As the economic of investors, corporations and states has evolved into an interlinked complex network; the clash of their interest is likely. This clash is not likely to stage a physical and expensive show down; rather a cheaper and discreet attack is more likely.
d. Cyber Wars. Today‘s growing non-kinetic threats emerge from the
virtual, digital world of the Internet and social media. Consider the
21 Ibid. P 21 22 Ibid. P.21
potency of the data that Google houses. It has better data concerning the virtual world than the U.S. intelligence community does.23 Anwar Awlaki, a Yemni leader of Al Qaeda is a great example inthis regard. He demonstrated how effectively cyber media could be used to radicalize susceptible audiences.
e. Shift in Social Sector. A major shift can be observed in formation of communities. People are changing allegiance from nations to causes, a trend dramatically accelerated by Internet connectivity. In fact, many people are much more engaged in their online causes than in their real-world communities.
f. Open Source Warfare. This is an ability to decentralize beyond the
limits of a single group (way beyond cell structures) using new development and coordination methodologies. This new structure doesn't only radically expand the number of potential participants, it shrinks the group size well below any normal measures of viability. This organizational structure creates a dynamic whereby new entrants can appear anywhere. In London, Madrid, Berlin, and New York.24
g. Systems Disruption. A method of sabotage that goes beyond the
simple destruction of physical infrastructure. This method of warfare, which can burst onto the scene as a black swan, uses network dynamics (a new form of leveraged manoeuvre) to
23http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/decades-terrorist-threat-5849
24 W.B.Lind, THE CHANGING FACE OF WAR: Into the 5th Generation (5GW) [online available]
undermine and reorder global systems. It is through this Schumpeterian "creative destruction" that new environments favourable to opposition forces are built (often due to a descent into primary loyalties and pressure from global markets).25
h. Virtual States. Unlike the guerrilla movements of the past, many of
the 5th GW forces we are fighting today have found a way to integrate their activities with global "crime." No longer are guerrilla movements or terrorists aimed at taking control of the reigns of the state or merely proxies for states. A new form of economic sustenance has been found. This black globalization is already vast and gains momentum through weakening and disruption of states. This military/economic integration creates a virtuous feedback loop that allows groups to gain greater degrees of independence and financial wealth through the warfare they conduct.26
i. Another New Player: Private Military Companies. A largely overlooked development in warfare is the exceptional increase in the use of private military companies (PMCs). These organizations have always been around, but during the last two decades they have become central to the way the United States wages war. There has been very little consideration given to how PMCs might impact international relations in general and war in particular. While US has focused on the monetary and political cost-cutting benefits
25 Ibid 26 Ibid
of PMCs, other nations are discovering creative ways to use them to avoid normal international constraints on the use of force.27
j. HAARP Technology. High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program (HAARP) is a scientific endeavour [by US] aimed at studying the properties and behaviour of the ionosphere, with particular emphasis on being able to understand and use it to enhance communications and surveillance systems for both civilian and defence purposes. The HAARP antenna array consists of 180 antennas on a total land area of about 35 acres. The array, along with its integrated transmitters, has a total radiated power capability of about 3,600 kilowatts.28 Many scientists have researched and displayed that this programme is making unprecedented changes in climate and practically is a directed energy weapon.
k. Food as Weapon. Arab uprisings are clearly evident that food
prices and availability of food is going to be a major point of conflict among communities and nations. Everybody thinks that the future is going to see fights over energy, when it's far more likely to be primarily over food.29 It is rightly said that next war in Indo-Pak scenario would be on water disputes.
27 Colonel T. X. Hammes, Fourth Generation Warfare Evolves, Fifth Emerges, (Military Review May-June
2007), P.25
28
http://www.haarp.alaska.edu/haarp/gen.html
29 Thomas, P.M Barnett; the Future of Fifth Generation Warfare: Follow the Food [online]
http://battleland.blogs.time.com/2011/06/08/the-future-of-5th-generation-warfare-follow-the-food/#ixzz1aaSAnMyG
PART III 5GW IN PAKISTAN
14. Environments for Pakistan. India, US, Afghanistan, NATO, Kashmir, War on terror, fundamentalists, sectarian divide, nuclear proliferation, derailed economy, corruption, food and energy crisis, natural disasters, bad governance, water crisis, sub-nationals, Raymond Davis, Osama operation, and off late NATO attack on Salala check post. What else complexities are needed to define a nation right into the most complicated war of the world. Present day challenges for Pakistan are unprecedented among the nations. Pakistan is combating against own allies of one front on another front. Are we in a 5th GW?
15. Challenges Ahead. The realization of this emerging/evolving dimension of warfare can not be seen at any tier, whether political, economic, or military. One argument could be that it does not matter whether it is 4th GW or 5th GW we should be adequate in our response. True even if we don‘t name this phenomenon as 5th GW, response to all emerging sit is warranted before hand. We will take a look that today, our nation is confronted with what all specific and non specific challenges:-
a. War on Terror vs National Interest. Former President Pervez Musharraf has said that decision to join US-led war on terror was taken in the larger interest of country and Pakistan would have been ruined if it had chosen not to side with the United States post-9/11 attacks. ―I did not change our national policy merely on a phone call, instead the decision was a ‗very thoughtful‘ one,‖ he
added.30 The question arises, whether we are not ruined even after taking that deliberate decision. Imran Khan, crickter turned politician said, "The danger with America's war on terror in Afghanistan was always that Pakistan, a nuclear-armed country of 170 million people, could be destabilised in the process, and that is what's happening‖31
.
b. Water War. Per capita water availability in Pakistan has
decreased from 5,000 cubic meters per annum 1951 to 1,10032. India is working on ‗Water Bomb‘ strategy to strangle Pakistan economically. Bhagliar dam has deprived Pakistan from 321,000 acres feet of water and adversely affected some 13 millions acres of land around Ravi and Chenab rivers. It has become a defense security concern as a number of canals, drains and artificial distributaries used for irrigation are crucial during war time.33
c. Natural Disasters? Pakistan has recently seen few great natural
disasters in a row. Earthquake followed by floods ruined the economy of war torn country. Many believe that HAAPR is responsible for this sudden, unpredicted and unprecedented change in climate. ―We have investigated this matter and concluded that HAARP is being used in Pakistan and of course how can we 30 http://pakobserver.net/detailnews.asp?id=94878 31 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/cricket/international/pakistan/6711498/Imran-Khan-on-how-the-war-on-terror-is-damaging-Pakistan.html 32
Water and Health Related issues in Pakistan, A special report published by: Freshwater & Toxics Program, WWF – Pakistan, P.1
33 Tufail Ahmed, Water Disputes between India and Pakistan, IPRI fact file 127 Pakistan water Concerns,
ignore India‘s Baglihar & Kabul‘s Sarobi ams contribution in this perfect plan This lood isaster is ore anmade than atural . The choice of starting point was perfect.‖34
d. Economy of War. During the last 10 years the direct and indirect
cost of war on terror incurred by Pakistan amounted to $ 67.93 billion or Rs.5037 billion. The events that transpired after 9/11 in Afghanistan worsened the security environment in the country. As a result, the western countries including the United States continued to impose travel ban for their citizen (investor, importers etc.) to visit Pakistan. This has affected Pakistan‘s exports, prevented the inflows of foreign investment, affected the pace of privatization program, slowed the overall economic activity, reduced import demand, reduced tax collection, expenditure over-run on additional security spending, domestic tourism industry suffered badly, destruction of physical infrastructure (military and civil) massive surge in security related spending; migration of thousands of people from war affected areas and the associated rise in expenditure to support internally displaced persons.35
34http://www.pakalertpress.com/2010/08/06/pakistan-flood-photos-haarp-fingerprints-found-allover/ 35 Cost of War on Terror for Pakistan Economy; Economic Survey 2010-11 by Ministry of Finance, Govt
PART IV
RECOMMENDATIONS
16. Realization. As we have seen that global environment, after Gulf War
and 9/11 has taken a dramatic change. Whether it is implementation of her New World Order by world‘s sole superpower or efforts to maintain their hegemony over global economy by developed nations; an era of new warfare has begun. It is imperative for the Government, scholars, economists, strategists, and above all for military men to understand the change and adapt accordingly.
17. Response. In case, right realization is there it will bring out right
response. This evolving generation of warfare demands something extra then routine strategic and military planning and preparation:-
a. National Strategy. Evolution of national strategy must take place
side by side with evaluating trends in warfare. National institutions like National Security Council (NSC) and Defence Cabinet Committee must evolve a mechanism which should provide constant feed back to these institutions. Independent think tanks like Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI) and Islamabad Strategic Studies Institute (ISSI) are best suited for the task. Suggested feed back and response mechanism is shown in figure 1.
b. Speed of Information. Communication infrastructure and tools
should allow transmission of faster information: as close to real-time as possible. A country should develop all modern and primitive modes of communication to build a strategic economy. A forum be formed to produce inter-ministerial level coordination in this field. c. Strategic Economy. Economic infrastructure should be able
to defend itself against global recessions, enemies‘ sabotage and natural disasters. Economy should ensure continuous supply of food and energy, as both will ensure sound economy in turn. It is recommended that DCC or NSC should also consider such matters as vital for country‘s defence and must suggest policy guidelines to all institutes, govt. departments and private sector as well.
d. Poly-Resource Ability. Resources of a nation must not only be available in abundance but also be able to replace it with each other. For example, if country is in shortage of food, its military or
diplomatic resource should be able to ensure uninterrupted supply from other nations.
e. Information Control. Media policy and instrument has to be designed that it should ensure national interest and also appear as free and unbiased. As major chunk of this war is information warfare, media and its use has to be given due importance.
f. Adaptable Military Muscle. Last but not the least, military muscle should be strong, flexible enough to absorb and respond to evolving trends in warfare.
18. Military Response. As discussed above, military muscle must be robust
and strong enough to respond to emerging threats. There is a large debate among defence circles about conventional and unconventional responses. It is immaterial, whether threat is conventional or unconventional we have to respond. Rather it is suggested that today 5th GW threats are conventions of the day and more focus be placed on these.
19. Conclusion. Drawing on changes in the political, economic, social, and
technical fields, 1GW culminated in the massed-manpower armies of the Napoleonic era. In the same way, 2GW used the evolution to an industrial society to make firepower the dominant form of war. Next, 3GW took advantage of the political, economic, and social shifts from an industrial to a mechanical era to make mechanized warfare dominant. Fourth-generation warfare uses all the shifts from a mechanical to an information/electronic society to maximize the power of insurgency. It continues to evolve along with our society as a whole,
thus making 4th GW increasingly dangerous and difficult for Western nations to deal with.
20. Fifth-generation warfare will result from the continued shift of political and social loyalties to causes rather than nations. It will be marked by the increasing power of smaller and smaller entities and the explosion of biotechnology. 5GW will truly be a nets-and-jets war. Whoever is first to recognize, understand, and implement a generational change can gain a decisive advantage. Conversely, a nation that is slow to adapt to generational change opens itself to catastrophic defeat.
