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Earthquake forecasting and its verification

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Figure

Table 1. Earthquakes with M≥5 that occurred in the California testregion since 1 January 2000
Fig. 2. Application of the PI method to central Japan. Coloredareas are the forecast hotspots for the occurrence of M≥5 earth-quakes during the period 2000-2010 derived using the PI method.The color scale gives values of the log10(P/Pmax)
Fig. 4.Retrospective application of the PI and RI methods forearthquakes that occurred in this region during the forecast period.Insouthern California as a function of false alarm rate
Table 2. Contingency tables as a function of false alarm rate. In(a), a threshold value was chosen such that F ≈ 0.005
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