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BENEFIT-COST ANALYSIS
Prepared for City of Ottumwa, Iowa
West Main Multimodal Corridor Revitalization Project
2020 BUILD Grant Application
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Introduction
A Benefit-Cost Analysis (BCA) was performed for the City of Ottumwa “West Main Multimodal Corridor Revitalization Project” for submission to the U.S. Department of Transportation (U.S. DOT). Benefit-cost analysis is required as part of the grant application for the 2020 BUILD program. The analysis was completed to determine the possible benefit cost ratios of proposed street, bicycle, pedestrian, and transit improvements providing multi-modal connections to Ottumwa’s Downtown/Riverfront. Recommended U.S. DOT methodologies for benefit-cost analysis were followed in order to provide the department with “apples-to-apples” comparisons and to make analysis strategy transparent. Benefit-cost methodologies were captured in The Guide to Preparing Benefit-Cost Analysis for BUILD grants1. Additional categories of monetized benefits and costs that are not shown in the guide have been developed using alternative strategies. Sources, detailed calculations and rational are identified in this report for determining these monetized benefits/costs.
This Benefit-Cost Analysis is based on the difference between the “no-build” scenario and the proposed improvements scenario. The “no-build” scenario is for baseline projections if the project were not to take place and is to go without improvements to the existing road and flood area. The baseline
projections were then used to estimate the proposed scenario where improvements for flood protection and roadways were taken into account.
General Assumptions
Constant Dollar Values and Discount Rates
Benefit-cost investments for the projects are shown in constant 2018 dollar values. Most benefit valuations and some costs were expressed in dollar values in a past year dollar value amount. In order to adjust and translate these monetized historical year values into 2018 dollars, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Urban Consumers2 was applied to historical values. Analyzing everything in a single base year of 2018 dollar values helps to further establish an “apples-to-apples” comparison of monetized benefits and costs for the U.S. DOT.
Real discount rates of 7.0 percent were used in this BCA as recommended by the U.S. DOT guidance for BUILD grants and the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB Circular A-94)3.
“As a default position, OMB Circular A-94 states that a real discount rate of 7 percent should be used as a base-case for regulatory analysis. The 7 percent rate is an estimate of the average before-tax rate of return to private capital in the U.S. economy. It is a broad measure that reflects the returns to real estate and small business capital as well as corporate capital. It approximates the opportunity cost of capital, and it is the appropriate discount rate whenever the main effect of a regulation is to displace or
1 US Department of Transportation: Benefit-Cost Analysis Guidance for Discretionary Grant Programs, January
2020; http://www.dot.gov/build/guidance.
2 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers, U.S. City Average, Series
CUSR0000SA0. 1982-1984=100.
3 White House Office of Management and Budget, Circular A-94, Guidelines and Discount Rates for Benefit-Cost
Analysis of Federal Programs (October 29, 1992).
3 alter the use of capital in the private sector… The effects of regulation do not always fall exclusively or primarily on the allocation of capital. When regulation primarily and directly affects private
consumption (e.g., through higher consumer prices for goods and services), a lower discount rate is appropriate. The alternative most often used is sometimes called the “social rate of time preference.” This simply means the rate at which “society” discounts future consumption flows to their present value. If we take the rate that the average saver uses to discount future consumption as our measure of the social rate of time preference, then the real rate of return on long-term government debt may provide a fair approximation. Over the last thirty years, this rate has averaged around 3 percent in real terms on a pre-tax basis.4”
Evaluation Period
The evaluation period for the City of Ottumwa “West Main Multimodal Corridor Revitalization Project” includes both the construction period and the post-construction period. The post-construction period considered included 20-years of operations and allows for benefit accrual to take place. The
construction period is considered to be when capital investment costs are used. This study has assumed the construction period to take place during years 2022-2027. Operations are assumed to begin in year 2027 and designed for 20 years of operations through 2047.
Results & Methodology
The analysis results in a positive return on investment for 7 percent discount rates over the evaluation period. These discounted net present values are based upon undiscounted costs and undiscounted benefits for the period. Undiscounted costs totaled $17.45 million dollars over the evaluation period and include both capital costs and operations/maintenance costs. Total undiscounted benefits were $96.7 million dollars over the 20-year period. Analysis yielded a benefit-cost ratio of 2.77 discounted at 7 percent. The cost table summary is in Appendix D – Page 16. It should be noted that benefits do not include O&M cost savings from doing proposed roads, buildings, and parking lots. The O&M costs for a “no-build” situation would likely create an even larger savings benefit for the proposed improvements situation, further increasing the Benefit-Cost Ratio.
Benefit-Cost Summary in 2018 Dollars
7% Discount
Total Benefits $ 32,255,136 Total Costs $ 11,660,104 Benefit-Cost
Ratio 2.77
Impacts from proposed improvements that created the largest benefit were from additional annual revenue from increased business attraction, and increased property value.
4 White House Office of Management and Budget, Circular A-94, Guidelines and Discount Rates for Benefit-Cost
Analysis of Federal Programs (October 29, 1992).
4 Benefits Summary in Constant 2018 Dollars
Type of Impact Benefit Undiscounted Benefit Value @ 7% Discount Livability Increased Property Value $ 3,200,000 $ 1,992,799
New Properties - Values $ 37,501,000 $ 14,677,042 Economic
Competitiveness
Increased Business/Tourism $ 43,827,494 $ 12,300,518 Vehicle Operating Costs
(VMT Reduction) $ 6,981,481 $ 1,892,814 Safety Crash Reduction $ 3,752,252 $ 1,010,380 Environmental Reduced Emissions $ 1,470,433 $ 381,583.08
Total Benefits $ 96,732,660 $ 32,255,136
The categorical pie chart below gives a conceptual look at the percentages that each benefit provided compared to the overall improvement benefits.
Human health benefits were not estimated with monetary values such as the ones shown above. With the “Complete Streets” initiative and apart of the proposed improvements, increased physical activity is linked to improved health and will benefit and have a positive impact on the community of Ottumwa.
5 Increased Property Value
Improved roadway/pedestrian-based infrastructure along Ottumwa’s Downtown/Riverfront is likely to increase property value in the downtown. The proposed implementation of “Complete Streets” along Main Street, 2nd Street, and at the Riverfront will help make these areas more accessible for people on foot or riding bikes. The National Complete Streets Coalition states that increased walkability leads to increased property values and has showed cases where property value increased $3,000-$9,000 as a result of Complete Street type projects (added trees, bike paths, sidewalks, green spaces, increased walkability, etc.)5. A conservative estimate of 10 percent increase in property value due to accessibility for pedestrian travel and enhanced multi-modal infrastructure as a result of “Complete Streets” was applied to the existing downtown property value in Ottumwa. An existing property value of $32M in the downtown area was obtained from the Wapello County Assessors office.
For this analysis, the current value of property is considered the “no-build” scenario where improvements would not take place. Overall, the improvements are estimated to result in a 10% increase in downtown properties. The increased property value benefit was considered a one-time "stock" benefit applied in 2028 (first year post-construction) in this analysis and led to a total
undiscounted benefit of $3,200,000. Property value benefits of $1.99 million were calculated for the 7 percent discounts, respectively.
Also, the project will bring new commercial buildings for retail, office, residential, and restaurants to Downtown/Riverfront once built. These six properties would create 146,700 square feet of mixed-use development as new businesses will be expanded on these properties. The City is confident that this will happen after this public investment. The City has been talking with developers and these are projects that are in the planning phase. The six new properties will fill in over a 7-year period after construction. This analysis led to a total undiscounted benefit of $37,501,000. Property value benefits of $5.36 million were calculated for the 7 percent discounts, respectively.
New Commercial/Residential Properties Square Feet Value/Square Foot Property Value Increased Increased Average Increased Property Value (7yr)
Washington Lot Mix Use Commercial/
Residential 48,000.00 $ 125.00 $ 6,000,000.00 $ 857,142.86 Market Lot Mix Use Commercial 84,200.00 $ 285.00 $ 23,997,000.00 $ 3,428,142.86 Townhomes East of Market Residential 9,000.00 $ 110.00 $ 990,000.00 $ 141,428.57 Restaurant on Market Lot 2,500.00 $ 600.00 $ 1,500,000.00 $ 214,285.71 Cigar Building 23,000.00 $ 218.00 $ 5,014,000.00 $ 716,285.71
Converted from 2019 values to 2018 dollar values: $ 37,501,000.00 $ 5,357,285.71
Increased Spending (Business/Tourism)
Improved transportation infrastructure is seen as a way to improve economic development in the City of Ottumwa. Multi-modal “Complete Streets” improvements along with riverfront and reconditioning are estimated to increase visitor spending by $2.09 million (undiscounted 2018 dollars) annually. For this
5 "Economic Development." Smart Growth America. (2016).
6 analysis, the $2.09 million was assumed to stay constant over the 20-year post-construction period and applied at discounts of 7 percent. Total benefits from increased spending were calculated to be $12.3 million for 7% discounts, respectively. In this case, the “no-build” scenario assumes that no annual increase is seen during the evaluation period.
Additional visitors to the Ottumwa Downtown/Riverfront are estimated at 56,436 which are mainly based on large and small event attendance and increased business. The following table shows projections on additional visitors.
2028 Proposed Additional Visitors to Downtown/Riverfront
Event Attendance Estimated # of Days Economic Impact Notes Riverfront (the
landing/bike trail) 5,200 0.5 $118,950 additional daily use including residents
Festivals 5,000 2 $457,500 additional attendees
Shopping/Dinner 7,800 1 $356,850 150 people each week
New Weekly Music during late spring,
Summer, Fall 2,500 0.5 $57,188
100 people each week for 25 weeks
Relocated Farmers
Market 3,000 0.5 $68,625 100 people each week for 30 weeks
New Events Using
Downtown 6,000 1.5 $411,750 proposing 2 new events to the space
New Residents in
Downtown 18,356 0.5 $419,894
353 New Residents spending at least once a week
Transit Ridership 8,580 0.5 $196,268
165 Transit Riders per week spending in area due to adjacent better facilities
Total 56,436 $2,087,024
In the calculated spending increase estimate, it is assumed that the additional attendance spent an average amount of $45.75 dollars per visitor and was multiplied by the estimated number of days spent in the community. Projections were obtained from the Ottumwa Convention & Visitors Bureau. Also, the Federal per diem per day was checked and used for Ottumwa. Appendix D – Page 9 shows calculated present value benefits for increased spending.
Reduced Average Daily Traffic (ADT)
A travel-related improvement expected as a result of the improved road infrastructure and pedestrian-based infrastructure is the reduction in ADT along Main Street and 2nd Street. Impacts to ADT along these roads create a reduction benefit for vehicle operation costs (VOC’s) and emissions reductions.
7 VOC is directly related to the amount of vehicle miles traveled (VMT). In this analysis, it was assumed that there would be a 20 percent decrease in ADT. U.S.DOT FHWA Road Diet case studies showed cases for "Complete Streets" programs with 18-29 percent volume reduction6, as well as a case with
36 percent reduction. A value of 20 percent decrease for the proposed improvements project in Ottumwa is considered conservative. The 20 percent reduction is based on the assumption that 20 percent of the traveling vehicle population will use walking, biking and other modes of transit in this area. ADT traffic information in these corridors was found on 2018 IDOT AADT mapping and averaged 2670 vehicles/day along Main Street and 3770 and 5800 vehicles/day on 2nd Street and Market Street in this downtown area. The vehicles/day counts were multiplied by 365 to give an annual estimate for the “no-build” scenario. The “no-build” was based on current ADT rates and is assumed to increase
1 percent per year over the project period. The reduction benefit of 20 percent of the current “no-build” rate was used. This benefit of vehicles/year was then multiplied by the distances of Main Street, 2nd Street, and Market Street within the project corridor to get VMT reductions. Total distance in this area is 1.05 miles and was considered the total trip length. These reductions were multiplied by the IRS 2018 Standard Mileage Rates7 used for cost/mile ($0.545/mile) to create the VOC savings.
An undiscounted VOC benefit savings of $6.98 million was calculated, while present benefit values of $1.89 million were calculated for 7 percent discount, respectively. The detailed VOC cost savings table is shown in Appendix D – Page 10.
Reduced ADT also created emission reductions in the project area. Emission rates were analyzed at the current speed limit of 25 MPH. The speed is assumed to stay the same with the improvements project. The following table summarizes monetary values of emissions in accordance with the benefit-cost analysis values as recommended by the U.S. DOT and emissions rates taken from Iowa, ICAAP emissions tables8.
Monetary Values of Emissions
Emission Rate at 30
MPH1
(gram/VMT) $ / Metric Ton (2018 Dollars)
CO2 563.19 Varies2
VOC 1.71 $ 2,100.00 NOx 1.796 $ 8,600.00 PM 0.0327 $ 387,300.00 SOx 0.0091 $ 50,100.00
6 "Case Studies - Safety | Federal Highway Administration." Case Studies - Safety | Federal Highway Administration.
(http://safety.fhwa.dot.gov/road_diets/case_studies/).
7 "2018 Standard Mileage Rates for Business, Medical and Moving Announced." 2018 Standard Mileage Rates for
Business, Medical and Moving Announced. (https://www.irs.gov/uac/Newsroom/2018-Standard-Mileage-Rates-for-Business-Medical-and-Moving-Announced).
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1Source: Iowa DOT, ICAAP emissions tables
2 7 % Social Cost of Carbon as outlined in 2019 Benefit-Cost Analysis Guidance for BUILD
Grant Applicants. Dollar values were converted to 2018 dollars.
Present benefit values for emissions totaled $0.38 million were calculated for 7 percent discount, respectively. The detailed emissions reduction benefit savings table is shown in Appendix D – Page 11. Reduction in Accidents
The Benefit-Cost Analysis assumes a 40 percent reduction in the number of accidents as a result of safety improvements along the roadway. The “Complete Streets” improvements include bicycle lanes and enhanced pedestrian walkways. The U.S.DOT FHWA Road Diet “Complete Streets” case studies showed strong reinforcement of crash reduction as a result of complete streets programs. Most studies found between 20 percent and 70 percent reduction for crash/injury incidents9. A conservative
estimate of 40 percent was used for the analysis due to evidence through “Road Diet” documentation. The case studies show decreased speeding in these improved traffic areas.
The “no-build” scenario considers current crash data obtained from the Iowa DOT’s Crash Mapping Analysis Tool. Through CMAT, historical data of crashes of the past 10 years along Main Street, 2nd Street, Market Street, and Wapello Street were found, and data was used to create average incidents per year for baseline projections. The table below shows ICAT data.
2010-2019 IDOT ICAT Crash Injury Summary Crash Type Incidents Avg. Incidents/Yr
Unknown 0 0 Possible 17 1.7 Minor Injury 14 1.4 Major Injury 1 0.1 Fatal 0 0 Total Injury 32 3.2 PDO 96 9.6
For the improvement scenario, the average incidents/year was calculated by multiplying 40 percent to the incidents/year values in the ICAT table shown. In order to get monetized values, the obtained data was converted to U.S. DOT recommended AIS scale which allows to give “apples-to-apples”
comparisons. The AIS scale conversion table is on Page 12 of this Appendix. Annual cost reduction benefits of approximately $187,612 were calculated and used for the 20-year post construction period. An undiscounted accident cost savings of $3.75 million was calculated, while present benefit values of $1.01 million were calculated for 7 percent discount, respectively. The detailed crash reduction benefits table is shown in Appendix D – Page 13.
9 "Case Studies - Safety | Federal Highway Administration." Case Studies - Safety | Federal Highway Administration.
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Increased Spending Benefits Table (2018 Dollars)
Economic Increase Benefit 2018 Dollars Project
Year Analysis Year Increased Business & Tourism Total Benefits @ 7% Discount 1 2018 $ - $ - 2 2019 $ - $ - 3 2020 $ - $ - 4 2021 $ - $ - 5 2022 $ - $ - 6 2023 $ - $ - 7 2024 $ - $ - 7 2025 $ - $ - 8 2026 $ - $ - 9 2027 $ - $ - 10 2028 $ 1,907,775.00 $ 969,816.07 11 2029 $ 1,907,775.00 $ 906,370.16 12 2030 $ 1,907,775.00 $ 847,074.92 13 2031 $ 1,907,775.00 $ 791,658.80 14 2032 $ 1,907,775.00 $ 739,868.04 15 2033 $ 1,907,775.00 $ 691,465.46 16 2034 $ 1,907,775.00 $ 646,229.40 17 2035 $ 1,907,775.00 $ 603,952.71 18 2036 $ 1,907,775.00 $ 564,441.78 19 2037 $ 1,907,775.00 $ 527,515.69 20 2038 $ 1,907,775.00 $ 493,005.31 21 2039 $ 1,907,775.00 $ 460,752.63 22 2040 $ 1,907,775.00 $ 430,609.93 23 2041 $ 1,907,775.00 $ 402,439.19 24 2042 $ 1,907,775.00 $ 376,111.39 25 2043 $ 1,907,775.00 $ 351,505.97 26 2044 $ 1,907,775.00 $ 328,510.26 27 2045 $ 1,907,775.00 $ 307,018.93 28 2046 $ 1,907,775.00 $ 286,933.58 29 2047 $ 1,907,775.00 $ 268,162.23 30 2048 $ 1,907,775.00 $ 250,618.90 Totals $ 40,063,275.00 $ 11,244,061.34
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Reduced ADT - Vehicle Operating Costs Savings Benefits Table (2018 Dollars)
ProjectYear Analysis Year ADT 1 x 365 (No-Build)
365*ADT After (20%
Reduction2) Reduction Benefit
Main Street Annual VMT Savings ADT 1 x 365 (No-Build) 365*ADT After (20%
Reduction2) Reduction Benefit
Market &2nd Street Annual VMT
Savings Total Annual VMT Savings $/Mile3 Undiscounted Cost Savings
Total VMT Benefits @ 7% Discount 1 2018 974,550 779,640 194,910 68,219 3,493,050 2,794,440 698,610 489,027 557,246 0.545 2 2019 984,296 787,436 196,859 68,901 3,527,981 2,822,384 705,596 493,917 562,818 0.545 3 2020 994,138 795,311 198,828 69,590 3,563,260 2,850,608 712,652 498,856 568,446 0.545 4 2021 1,004,080 803,264 200,816 70,286 3,598,893 2,879,114 719,779 503,845 574,131 0.545 5 2022 1,014,121 811,297 202,824 70,988 3,634,882 2,907,905 726,976 508,883 579,872 0.545 6 2023 1,024,262 819,409 204,852 71,698 3,671,231 2,936,985 734,246 513,972 585,671 0.545 7 2024 1,034,504 827,604 206,901 72,415 3,707,943 2,966,354 741,589 519,112 591,527 0.545 8 2025 1,044,850 835,880 208,970 73,139 3,745,022 2,996,018 749,004 524,303 597,443 0.545 9 2026 1,055,298 844,238 211,060 73,871 3,782,473 3,025,978 756,495 529,546 603,417 0.545 10 2027 1,065,851 852,681 213,170 74,610 3,820,297 3,056,238 764,059 534,842 609,451 0.545 11 2028 1,076,509 861,208 215,302 75,356 3,858,500 3,086,800 771,700 540,190 615,546 0.545 $ 335,472.41 $ 159,380.53 12 2029 1,087,275 869,820 217,455 76,109 3,897,085 3,117,668 779,417 545,592 621,701 0.545 $ 338,827.14 $ 150,443.30 13 2030 1,098,147 878,518 219,629 76,870 3,936,056 3,148,845 787,211 551,048 627,918 0.545 $ 342,215.41 $ 142,007.23 14 2031 1,109,129 887,303 221,826 77,639 3,975,417 3,180,333 795,083 556,558 634,197 0.545 $ 345,637.56 $ 134,044.21 15 2032 1,120,220 896,176 224,044 78,415 4,015,171 3,212,137 803,034 562,124 640,539 0.545 $ 349,093.94 $ 126,527.71 16 2033 1,131,422 905,138 226,284 79,200 4,055,323 3,244,258 811,065 567,745 646,945 0.545 $ 352,584.88 $ 119,432.70 17 2034 1,142,737 914,189 228,547 79,992 4,095,876 3,276,701 819,175 573,423 653,414 0.545 $ 356,110.72 $ 112,735.54 18 2035 1,154,164 923,331 230,833 80,791 4,136,835 3,309,468 827,367 579,157 659,948 0.545 $ 359,671.83 $ 106,413.92 19 2036 1,165,706 932,564 233,141 81,599 4,178,203 3,342,562 835,641 584,948 666,548 0.545 $ 363,268.55 $ 100,446.78 20 2037 1,177,363 941,890 235,473 82,415 4,219,985 3,375,988 843,997 590,798 673,213 0.545 $ 366,901.24 $ 94,814.25 21 2038 1,189,136 951,309 237,827 83,240 4,262,185 3,409,748 852,437 596,706 679,945 0.545 $ 370,570.25 $ 89,497.56 22 2039 1,201,028 960,822 240,206 84,072 4,304,807 3,443,845 860,961 602,673 686,745 0.545 $ 374,275.95 $ 84,479.01 23 2040 1,213,038 970,430 242,608 84,913 4,347,855 3,478,284 869,571 608,700 693,612 0.545 $ 378,018.71 $ 79,741.87 24 2041 1,225,168 980,135 245,034 85,762 4,391,333 3,513,067 878,267 614,787 700,548 0.545 $ 381,798.90 $ 75,270.36 25 2042 1,237,420 989,936 247,484 86,619 4,435,247 3,548,197 887,049 620,935 707,554 0.545 $ 385,616.89 $ 71,049.59 26 2043 1,249,794 999,835 249,959 87,486 4,479,599 3,583,679 895,920 627,144 714,629 0.545 $ 389,473.05 $ 67,065.50 27 2044 1,262,292 1,009,834 252,458 88,360 4,524,395 3,619,516 904,879 633,415 721,776 0.545 $ 393,367.79 $ 63,304.82 28 2045 1,274,915 1,019,932 254,983 89,244 4,569,639 3,655,711 913,928 639,749 728,994 0.545 $ 397,301.46 $ 59,755.02 29 2046 1,287,664 1,030,131 257,533 90,136 4,615,335 3,692,268 923,067 646,147 736,283 0.545 $ 401,274.48 $ 56,404.27 30 2047 1,300,541 1,040,433 260,108 91,038 4,661,489 3,729,191 932,298 652,608 743,646 0.545 $ 405,287.22 $ 53,241.41 VMT Savings along Main Street (0.35 miles) VMT Savings along Market & 2nd Street (0.7 miles) $6,981,481.14 $ 1,892,814.16 1 Average Daily Traffic (ADT) values were averaged along both Main Street, Market Street and 2nd Street with Iowa DOT AADT Maps. 1% annual increase in traffic was applied.
(http://www.iowadot.gov/maps/msp/traffic/2018/cities/Ottumwa.pdf).
2 U.S.DOT FHWA Road Diet case studies showed cases for "Complete Streets" programs with 18-29% volume reduction, as well as a case with 36% reduction. A conservative estimate of 20% reduction was estimated due to increased use of other modes of transportation. (http://safety.fhwa.dot.gov/road_diets/case_studies/roaddiet_cs.pdf).
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Reduced ADT - Emission Reduction Benefits Table (2018 Dollars)
Project
Year Analysis Year Savings/Yr Total VMT
CO2 (Metric
Tons/Yr) CO2 ($/Metric Ton)
VOC (Metric Tons/Yr) VOC ($/Metric Ton) NOx (Metric Tons/Yr) NOx ($/Metric Ton) PM (Metric Tons/Yr) PM ($/Metric Ton) SOx (Metric Tons/Yr) SOx ($/Metric Ton) Undiscounted Total Non-CO2
Emissions NPV CO2 at 3% Avg SCC
Total Emissions Benefits @ 7% Discount 1 2018 893,520 503.22 1.53 1.60 0.029 0.008 2 2019 902,455 508.25 1.54 1.62 0.030 0.008 3 2020 911,480 513.34 1.56 1.64 0.030 0.008 4 2021 920,595 518.47 1.57 1.65 0.030 0.008 5 2022 929,800 523.65 1.59 1.67 0.030 0.008 6 2023 939,098 528.89 1.61 1.69 0.031 0.009 7 2024 948,489 534.18 1.62 1.70 0.031 0.009 8 2025 957,974 539.52 1.64 1.72 0.031 0.009 9 2026 967,554 544.92 1.65 1.74 0.032 0.009 10 2027 977,230 550.37 1.67 1.76 0.032 0.009 11 2028 987,002 555.87 $ 31,128.70 1.69 $ 3,475.13 1.77 $ 14,385.10 0.032 $ 11,982.11 0.009 $ 430.81 $ 30,273.15 $ 14,789.02 $ 29,171.57 12 2029 996,872 561.43 $ 32,001.41 1.70 $ 3,509.88 1.79 $ 14,528.95 0.033 $ 12,101.93 0.009 $ 435.12 $ 30,575.88 $ 14,209.01 $ 27,785.07 13 2030 1,006,841 567.04 $ 32,888.47 1.72 $ 3,544.98 1.81 $ 14,674.24 0.033 $ 12,222.95 0.009 $ 439.47 $ 30,881.64 $ 13,647.55 $ 26,462.33 14 2031 1,016,909 572.71 $ 33,790.07 1.74 $ 3,580.43 1.83 $ 14,820.98 0.033 $ 12,345.18 0.009 $ 443.86 $ 31,190.45 $ 13,104.37 $ 25,200.57 15 2032 1,027,078 578.44 $ 34,706.41 1.76 $ 3,616.23 1.84 $ 14,969.19 0.034 $ 12,468.63 0.009 $ 448.30 $ 31,502.36 $ 12,579.20 $ 23,997.10 16 2033 1,037,349 584.22 $ 35,637.70 1.77 $ 3,652.39 1.86 $ 15,118.88 0.034 $ 12,593.32 0.009 $ 452.78 $ 31,817.38 $ 12,071.72 $ 22,849.37 17 2034 1,047,722 590.07 $ 36,584.14 1.79 $ 3,688.92 1.88 $ 15,270.07 0.034 $ 12,719.25 0.010 $ 457.31 $ 32,135.55 $ 11,581.60 $ 21,754.90 18 2035 1,058,200 595.97 $ 37,545.95 1.81 $ 3,725.80 1.90 $ 15,422.77 0.035 $ 12,846.45 0.010 $ 461.88 $ 32,456.91 $ 11,108.49 $ 20,711.32 19 2036 1,068,782 601.93 $ 38,523.34 1.83 $ 3,763.06 1.92 $ 15,577.00 0.035 $ 12,974.91 0.010 $ 466.50 $ 32,781.48 $ 10,652.02 $ 19,716.38 20 2037 1,079,470 607.95 $ 39,516.52 1.85 $ 3,800.69 1.94 $ 15,732.77 0.035 $ 13,104.66 0.010 $ 471.17 $ 33,109.29 $ 10,211.82 $ 18,767.89 21 2038 1,090,264 614.03 $ 41,139.74 1.86 $ 3,838.70 1.96 $ 15,890.10 0.036 $ 13,235.71 0.010 $ 475.88 $ 33,440.39 $ 9,935.78 $ 18,012.08 22 2039 1,101,167 620.17 $ 42,171.30 1.88 $ 3,877.09 1.98 $ 16,049.00 0.036 $ 13,368.06 0.010 $ 480.64 $ 33,774.79 $ 9,518.62 $ 17,142.03 23 2040 1,112,179 626.37 $ 43,219.38 1.90 $ 3,915.86 2.00 $ 16,209.49 0.036 $ 13,501.74 0.010 $ 485.45 $ 34,112.54 $ 9,116.99 $ 16,312.93 24 2041 1,123,300 632.63 $ 44,284.20 1.92 $ 3,955.02 2.02 $ 16,371.59 0.037 $ 13,636.76 0.010 $ 490.30 $ 34,453.66 $ 8,730.48 $ 15,522.90 25 2042 1,134,533 638.96 $ 45,366.00 1.94 $ 3,994.57 2.04 $ 16,535.30 0.037 $ 13,773.13 0.010 $ 495.20 $ 34,798.20 $ 8,358.65 $ 14,770.19 26 2043 1,145,879 645.35 $ 46,465.01 1.96 $ 4,034.51 2.06 $ 16,700.65 0.037 $ 13,910.86 0.010 $ 500.15 $ 35,146.18 $ 8,001.07 $ 14,053.08 27 2044 1,157,337 651.80 $ 46,929.66 1.98 $ 4,074.86 2.08 $ 16,867.66 0.038 $ 14,049.97 0.011 $ 505.16 $ 35,497.64 $ 7,552.41 $ 13,265.06 28 2045 1,168,911 658.32 $ 47,398.96 2.00 $ 4,115.61 2.10 $ 17,036.34 0.038 $ 14,190.47 0.011 $ 510.21 $ 35,852.62 $ 7,128.91 $ 12,521.22 28 2045 1,168,911 658.32 $ 47,398.96 2.00 $ 4,115.61 2.10 $ 17,036.34 0.038 $ 14,190.47 0.011 $ 510.21 $ 35,852.62 $ 7,128.91 $ 12,521.22 30 2047 1,180,600 664.90 $ 47,872.95 2.02 $ 4,156.76 2.12 $ 17,206.70 0.039 $ 14,332.37 0.011 $ 515.31 $ 36,211.15 $ 6,288.93 $ 11,045.89 Totals $ 804,568.88 $ 76,436.07 $316,403.13 $263,548.96 $ 9,475.71 $ 665,863.88 $205,715.56 $ 381,583.08
12
AIS Crash Data Conversion Calculations
NO-BUILD
No Injury Possible Injury Non-incapacitating Incapacitating Killed Injured Severity Unknown Property Damage Only
AIS Accident Counts 0 2018 $ Value 1.4 2018 $ Value 0.1 2018 $ Value 0 2018 $ Value 0 2018 $ Value 1.7 2018 $ Value 9.6 2018 $ Value 0 0.000000 $ - 0.328118 $ - 0.008347 $ - 0 $ - 0.000000 $ - 0.366146 $ - N/A N/A 1 0.000000 $ - 0.965244 $27,799.03 0.076843 $ 2,213.08 0 $ - 0.000000 $ - 1.066376 $ 30,711.63 N/A N/A 2 0.000000 $ - 0.089474 $40,370.67 0.010898 $ 4,917.18 0 $ - 0.000000 $ - 0.176800 $ 79,772.16 N/A N/A 3 0.000000 $ - 0.014994 $15,113.95 0.003191 $ 3,216.53 0 $ - 0.000000 $ - 0.065586 $ 66,110.69 N/A N/A 4 0.000000 $ - 0.001988 $ 5,076.56 0.00062 $ 1,583.23 0 $ - 0.000000 $ - 0.007514 $ 19,187.75 N/A N/A 5 0.000000 $ - 0.000182 $ 1,036.09 0.000101 $ 574.97 0 $ - 0.000000 $ - 0.017578 $ 100,068.04 N/A N/A Fatality 0.000000 $ - 0.000000 $ - 0.00000 $ - 0 $ - 0.000000 $ - 0.000000 $ - N/A N/A
0.0 $ - 1.4 $89,396.29 0.1 $12,504.99 0.0 $ - 0.0 $ - 1.7 $ 295,850.27 16.2 $71,280.00 $ 469,031.55
Notes: This case assumes that improvements are NOT built and crash/injury stays consistent with historical data given by Iowa Department of Transportation crash data from 2010-2019.
This table has converted available IDOT crash data (shown on a KABCO scale) into AIS Data in accordance to the U.S. DOT'S BUILD BENEFIT-COST ANALYSIS RESOURCE GUIDE. This table, provided by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), makes a conversion from available reported data into re-interpreted AIS data for apples-to-apples comparisons for the U.S. DOT.
Property Damage Only (PDO) - This is not originally part of the AIS conversion table, but has been added to this table to account for PDO damage costs. Monetary values for injury/pdo are given by U.S. DOT's BUILD BENEFIT-COST ANALYSIS GUIDE and amounts have been converted to 2018 dollars.
REDUCTION OF 40%1
No Injury Possible Injury Non-incapacitating Incapacitating Killed Injured Severity Unknown Property Damage Only AIS Accident Scale 0 2018 $ Value 0.56 2018 $ Value 0.04 2018 $ Value 0 2018 $ Value 0 2018 $ Value 0.68 2018 $ Value 3.84 2018 $ Value 0 0.000000 $ - 0.1312472 $ - 0.0033388 $ - 0 $ - 0.000000 $ - 0.1464584 $ - N/A N/A 1 0.000000 $ - 0.3860976 $11,119.61 0.0307372 $ 885.23 0 $ - 0.000000 $ - 0.4265504 $ 12,284.65 N/A N/A 2 0.000000 $ - 0.0357896 $16,148.27 0.0043592 $ 1,966.87 0 $ - 0.000000 $ - 0.070720 $ 31,908.86 N/A N/A 3 0.000000 $ - 0.0059976 $ 6,045.58 0.0012764 $ 1,286.61 0 $ - 0.000000 $ - 0.0262344 $ 26,444.28 N/A N/A
4 0.000000 $ - 0.0007952 $ 2,030.62 0.000248 $ 633.29 0 $ - 0.000000 $ - 0.0030056 $ 7,675.10 N/A N/A Annual
Reduction Savings
5 0.000000 $ - 0.0000728 $ 414.44 0.0000404 $ 229.99 0 $ - 0.000000 $ - 0.0070312 $ 40,027.22 N/A N/A Fatality 0.000000 $ - 0.000000 $ - 0.000000 $ - 0 $ - 0.000000 $ - 0 $ - N/A N/A
0.0 $ - 0.56 $35,758.52 0.04 $ 5,002.00 0.00 $ - 0.0 $ - 0.68 $ 118,340.11 6.48 $28,512.00 $ 187,612.62 1 Assumption: U.S.DOT FHWA Road Diet "Complete Street" case studies showed strong support for crash reduction as a result of the complete streets program. Most case studies found reductions between 20% and 70%
for crash/injury incidents. A conservative estimate of 40% reduction was used for analysis of crash reduction due to improvements project and is strongly reinforced by "Road Diet" documentation. (http://safety.fhwa.dot.gov/road_diets/case_studies/roaddiet_cs.pdf)
13
Crash Reduction Benefits (2018 Dollars)
Crash Reduction Savings Benefits in 2018 Dollars Project
Year Analysis Year
Crash Reduction
(40%) @ 7% Discount Total Benefits 1 2018 $ - $ - 2 2019 $ - $ - 3 2020 $ - $ - 4 2021 $ - $ - 5 2022 $ - $ - 6 2023 $ - $ - 7 2024 $ - $ - 8 2025 $ - $ - 9 2026 $ - $ - 10 2027 $ - $ - 11 2028 $ 187,612.62 $ 89,133.40 12 2029 $ 187,612.62 $ 83,302.25 13 2030 $ 187,612.62 $ 77,852.57 14 2031 $ 187,612.62 $ 72,759.41 15 2032 $ 187,612.62 $ 67,999.45 16 2033 $ 187,612.62 $ 63,550.89 17 2034 $ 187,612.62 $ 59,393.35 18 2035 $ 187,612.62 $ 55,507.80 19 2036 $ 187,612.62 $ 51,876.45 20 2037 $ 187,612.62 $ 48,482.67 21 2038 $ 187,612.62 $ 45,310.90 22 2039 $ 187,612.62 $ 42,346.64 23 2040 $ 187,612.62 $ 39,576.30 24 2041 $ 187,612.62 $ 36,987.19 25 2042 $ 187,612.62 $ 34,567.47 26 2043 $ 187,612.62 $ 32,306.05 27 2044 $ 187,612.62 $ 30,192.57 28 2045 $ 187,612.62 $ 28,217.35 29 2046 $ 187,612.62 $ 26,371.36 30 2047 $ 187,612.62 $ 24,646.13 Totals $3,752,252.39 $1,010,380.19
14
Costs Summary Table (2018 Dollars)
Note: O&M costs savings due to improvements and not having a “no-build” situation would further increase benefits. An annual O&M savings was not used due to lack of available information on current cost of operations and maintenance on the roadways.
Cost Summary in Constant 2018 Dollars
Project
Year Analysis Year
Cost of Improvements Maintenance NPV of Costs
Capital Costs
Undiscounted Undiscounted O&M Costs Undiscounted Total Costs Total Costs @ 7% Discount
1 2018 2 2019 3 2020 4 2021 $ 1,200,000.00 - $ 1,200,000.00 $ 915,474.25 5 2022 $ 3,100,000.00 - $ 3,100,000.00 $ 2,210,257.16 6 2023 $ 4,200,000.00 - $ 4,200,000.00 $ 2,798,637.34 7 2024 $ 4,500,000.00 - $ 4,500,000.00 $ 2,802,373.84 8 2025 $ 3,300,000.00 - $ 3,300,000.00 $ 1,920,630.05 9 2026 $ 1,861,865.00 - $ 1,861,865.00 $ 1,012,731.20 10 2027 - - $ - $ - 11 2028 - - $ - $ - 12 2029 - - $ - $ - 13 2030 - - $ - $ - 14 2031 - - $ - $ - 15 2032 - - $ - $ - 16 2033 - - $ - $ - 17 2034 - - $ - $ - 18 2034 - - $ - $ - 19 2035 - - $ - $ - 20 2036 - - $ - $ - 21 2037 - - $ - $ - 22 2038 - - $ - $ - 23 2039 - - $ - $ - 24 2040 - - $ - $ - 25 2041 - - $ - $ - 26 2042 - - $ - $ - 27 2043 - - $ - $ - 28 2044 - - $ - $ - 29 2045 - - $ - $ - 30 2046 - - $ - $ - 31 2047 - - $ - $ - 32 2048 - - $ - $ - Totals $ 18,161,865.00 $ - $ 18,161,865.00 $11,660,103.83
