Aditya Birla Money Limited

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JUNE 2013

Major Index Symbol Spot % Change (M-O-M) Future Basis R1 S1 June. Roll Over Last 6 mth avg Cost Last 6 mth Cost RANK BANKNIFTY 11,235.75 -12.26 11,287.65 51.9 11,800 11,040 62.04 62.38 0.46 0.3 CNXIT 6,587.15 3.08 6,550.95 -36.2 6,750 6,298 76.21 55.88 -0.55 -0.06 NFTYMCAP50 1,833.20 -11.58 1,844.85 11.65 1,925 1,725 0 58.67 0.64 0.7 NIFTY 5,682.35 -7.21 5,687.05 4.7 5,920 5,530 47.24 59.16 0.08 0.39 0 15 30 45 60 75 90

BANKNIFTY CNXIT NFTYMCAP50 NIFTY

June. Roll Over 6mth AVG.

Rolls in NIFTY futures lower than last month with NIFTY rolls at 47%, lower than 6-month average of 59%, also in value terms, it is at 7275 Cr. versus 11308 Cr. (NIFTY was down by 7% in last series, number of shares also have decreased to 127 lakh versus 185 lakh shares). On other hand, market wide roll also lower at 74% in value terms 25449 Cr which is more than last month 28602 Cr., (in share terms also decline, along with stocks have lost 5-10 % on price chart) leading to overall position of 32724 Cr Vs 41765 Cr. (lower than last month, and also lowest in last six month) in futures positions, however Roll Cost is at 0.13 which is lower than last month even after adjusting dividend cost is declining, also lower than 6mth avg. of 0.46, with NIFTY cost at 0.08 (which is much lower than 0.39 avg. of 6 months),as a result Arbitrage trades have seen unwinding. Also, NIFTY/STOCK Fut. ratio has come down to 0.22 (last month 0.26), implies market participants have taken bets on individual stocks and not on Index.

Nifty front PCR_OI opened at 1.08 above 1 (last month 1.07), highest level at open in last 6 months (stable zones); with 5600 PE having highest OI across options as 60 lakh, (19 lakh shares add on Thursday), implying PE writers are convinced NIFTY will find support around 5530-5600; on resistance side CE OI is at 5800 and 5900 (37 and 33 lakh shares), implying 5850-5930 will be crucial resistance zone; Index options positions also has reduced to 56183 Cr (last month 58954 Cr) clearly can be attributed to hedging being reduced positive for market. We feel in short term Nifty trading range would be 5530-5850, as we enter the JULY Series.

Among stock futures lot of sectors have shown mixed sentiment, implying it will be Stock Specific market with in a sector also some stocks are showing more strength than others; some of the sectors that can help Index to gain further in the JULY. Series, Overall OIL & GAS (heavy weights), FINANCE (HSG. FIN.) and IT should be watched carefully as they have shown C-o-C improve heavy weights. On other hand, sectors which might underperform

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JUNE 2013

Sectors Data

Sector June. Rolls 6mth Avg. Rank

Automobile 77 77 4 Banking 76 77 3 Capital Goods 81 80 4 Cement 69 75 3 Fertilisers 89 84 4 Finance 77 78 2 FMCG 70 77 3 Infrastructure 92 87 5 Media 77 80 3 Metals 82 80 4

Oil & Gas 74 77 1

Pharma 69 77 3 Power 70 72 3 Realty 80 79 3 Technology 78 75 1 Telecom 69 78 3 Textile 85 87 4 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Au to m o b ile Ba n k in g C a p ita l G o ods Ce m e n t F e rt ilis e rs Fi n a n ce FM C G In fr as tr uc tur e Me d ia Met a ls O il & G a s Ph a rma Po w e r R eal ty T e c hno lo g y Te le c o m T e xt ile

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JUNE 2013

AUTOMOBILE Symbol Spot % Change (M-O-M) Future Basis TGT JUNE. Roll Over 6 mth avg Cost 6 mth Cost RANK APOLLOTYRE 56.45 (37.24) 56.45 - 53 81.48 77.75 - 0.86 4 ASHOKLEY 19.75 (18.89) 19.30 (0.45) 18 85.10 82.82 (2.28) 0.87 5 BAJAJ-AUTO 1,838.20 0.02 1,796.95 (41.25) 1,950 63.64 74.51 (2.24) 0.48 2 BHARATFORG 219.95 (8.26) 220.35 0.40 235 95.47 91.35 0.18 0.55 2 EXIDEIND 120.20 (13.12) 121.20 1.00 110 82.13 69.52 0.83 0.69 5 HEROMOTOCO 1,648.45 (5.88) 1,599.80 (48.65) 1,720 75.60 77.86 (2.95) (0.07) 2 M&M 933.65 (7.07) 924.95 (8.70) 900 56.73 64.28 (0.93) 0.50 3 MARUTI 1,521.20 (7.10) 1,525.85 4.65 1,650 76.53 75.96 0.31 0.54 2 MRF 12,524.10 (16.54) 12,623.80 99.70 11,200 75.57 80.08 0.80 0.87 5 TATAMOTORS 270.30 (14.75) 272.75 2.45 290 64.55 72.89 0.91 0.55 3 TATAMTRDVR 135.10 (21.86) 136.00 0.90 142 86.10 76.88 0.67 0.74 2 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 AP O L L O T Y R E A S H O KL EY BA J A J -AU T O B H AR AT F O R G EXI D E IN D HE RO M O T O CO M& M M A RUT I MR F TA T A M O TOR S T A T A M T RDV R

JUNE. Roll Over 6 mth avg

AUTOMOBILE sector in line with 6-month avg. at 77%, above market wide limit of 74%. Both Two Wheeler stocks worth watching are:

 BAJAJAUTO rolls well below avg. at 64% with Cost better than 6mth avg. technically, the stock is trying to form a

bottom around 1780-1790 will act as support (20 DMA.), one should accumulate on dips till holds above it, stock to retest levels of 1894-1895 i.e. 200 DMA, any technical correction should be used to enter.

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BANKING Symbol Spot % Change (M-O-M) Future Basis TGT JUNE. Roll Over Last 6 mth avg Cost Last 6 mth Cost Rank ALBK 88.05 (29.39) ANDHRABANK 78.40 (10.81) AXISBANK 1,275.05 (11.00) BANKBARODA 566.35 (17.38) BANKINDIA 221.10 (25.59) CANBK 348.55 (18.18) DENABANK 66.00 (23.79) FEDERALBNK 398.40 (11.64) HDFCBANK 646.50 (10.85) ICICIBANK 1,030.55 (12.87) IDBI 68.25 (16.62) INDUSINDBK 455.65 (13.84) IOB 48.30 (22.10) KOTAKBANK 702.10 (12.22) KTKBANK 108.60 (23.74) ORIENTBANK 198.40 (22.32) PNB 635.75 (20.33) SBIN 1,912.50 (8.43) SYNDIBANK 105.10 (20.23) UCOBANK 58.10 (26.13) UNIONBANK 178.00 (23.09) VIJAYABANK 43.15 (17.42) YESBANK 443.30 (11.34) 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 AL BK A NDHRA B A NK AXI SBA N K BAN KB AR O D A BAN K IN D IA CA NB K D E N ABA N K F E DE RA L B N K H D F C BAN K IC ICI B A N K IDB I INDUS INDB K IO B K O T AKB AN K K T KBAN K O R IE N T BAN K PN B SBI N S Y NDIB A NK UCO B A NK UN IO NB A N K VI J A YABAN K YE SBAN K th

JUNE 2013

88.80 0.75 98 85.45 78.98 0.85 (0.79) 3 73.95 (4.45) 84 89.48 79.59 (5.68) 0.83 3 1,262.65 (12.40) 1,310 62.52 69.84 (0.97) 0.24 1 570.30 3.95 614 70.06 66.19 0.70 (0.20) 2 222.65 1.55 250 81.87 80.13 0.70 (0.24) 3 337.80 (10.75) 374 82.60 76.62 (3.08) 0.30 3 66.55 0.55 75 84.54 84.45 0.83 (0.24) 3 394.20 (4.20) 425 58.04 78.99 (1.05) 0.52 2 649.55 3.05 655 49.57 57.95 0.47 0.45 2 1,038.55 8.00 1,080 57.59 61.81 0.78 0.40 2 68.80 0.55 73 69.39 83.05 0.81 0.83 2 459.25 3.60 480 66.98 68.24 0.79 0.25 3 48.60 0.30 51 80.82 84.01 0.62 0.11 3 703.60 1.50 720 71.86 67.29 0.21 0.14 2 109.10 0.50 120 81.12 90.36 0.46 0.32 2 200.00 1.60 210 81.91 74.64 0.81 (0.23) 3 640.30 4.55 680 79.23 84.33 0.72 0.07 3 1,925.80 13.30 2,000 77.96 74.45 0.70 0.06 2 105.95 0.85 117 80.65 82.82 0.81 (0.24) 3 58.65 0.55 62 86.11 84.74 0.95 0.67 3 179.35 1.35 195 79.77 73.90 0.76 (0.23) 3 43.55 0.40 46 75.90 85.86 0.93 (0.03) 3 446.65 3.35 465 88.25 84.75 0.76 0.66 3

JUNE. Roll Over 6mth avg.

BANKING sector witnessed below avg.76% Vs. 77%, better than market wide rolls, with Banking stocks showing C-o-C mixed sentiments, above avg. rolls, implying one has to do stock picking, stocks showing signs of Long Roll Over, with stocks such as AXISBK saw below average roll of 62% (with cost improving, imply Short Squeeze) versus avg. of

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JUNE 2013

CEMENT Symbol Spot % Change (M-O-M) Future Basis TGT JUNE Roll Over Last 6 mth avg Cost Last 6 mth Cost Rank ACC 1,202.70 (3.32) 1,199.15 (3.55) 1,240 54.53 61.74 (0.30) 0.28 2 AMBUJACEM 181.90 (0.11) 181.85 (0.05) 172 56.34 62.34 (0.03) 0.32 4 CENTURYTEX 251.45 (13.41) 248.20 (3.25) 230 89.07 88.35 (1.29) 0.81 5 GRASIM 2,754.90 (6.66) 2,751.15 (3.75) 2,870 65.65 76.78 (0.14) 0.74 3 INDIACEM 55.75 (18.79) 56.20 0.45 60 84.46 79.79 0.81 0.63 2 JPASSOCIAT 51.05 (23.64) 51.40 0.35 47 76.00 81.47 0.69 0.64 5 ULTRACEMCO 1,877.60 (5.56) 1,843.80 (33.80) 1,950 56.23 70.81 (1.80) 0.17 2 0 25 50 75 100 AC C AMBU J A C E M CE NT URY T E X GR A S IM INDI A C E M J P ASSO C IA T UL T R A C E M CO

JUNE Roll Over Last 6 mth avg

CEMENT sector below 6-month avg. rolls at 69%, also below market wide rolls of 75% (with cost improve) implying stocks have seen short covering:

 AMBUJArolls at 56% well below avg. of 62%; however with cost improve implying short squeeze, technically the

stock has formed a strong support 177-178 band, once it crosses above 183-184 buy on dips expect to retest 194-195 levels, i.e. 200 DMA.

 ACC counter which saw below avg. rolls at 54% (below last month) with C-o-C improve short squeeze,

Technically, the stock has formed a strong bottom 1140-1147, managed to close above resistance level 1190-1204 (20 DMA is placed), once moves above 1220-1225 i.e. 50 DMA expect a run up to 1284-1315.

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CAPITAL GOODS Symbol Spot % Change (M-O-M) Future Basis TGT JUNE Roll Over Last 6 mth avg Cost Last 6 mth Cost Rank BHEL 162.95 (20.72) 163.75 0.80 176 85.38 84.46 0.5 (0.86) 3 CROMPGREAV 80.20 (16.80) 80.50 0.30 86 89.97 85.98 0.4 0.70 2 LT 1,350.40 _{(5.40) 1,356.05 5.65 1,290 55.44 70.90} 0.4 _0.57 3 PUNJLLOYD 33.20 (26.14) 33.55 0.35 30 87.35 81.97 1.1 _(0.41) 5 SIEMENS 530.15 (10.89) 532.50 2.35 550 84.95 72.88 0.4 _0.66 2 VOLTAS 78.75 _{(7.46) 79.40 0.65 72 80.67 81.72} 0.8 _0.76

₄

0 20 40 60 80 100 BH EL CR O M P G RE A V _LT P U N J LLOYD SI EM E N S VO LT A S

JUNE Roll Over Last 6 mth avg

CAPITAL GOODS sector saw a pickup in rolls at 6-month avg. rolls at 80%, however above the market wide rolls of 75%. Stocks that should be kept on radar are:

 LARSEN rolls at 55% below its avg. of 71%, with roll cost decline, implying long unwind Technically, stock has

closed below 20 DMA at 1398-1400 zones, one should sell on rise till holds below these levels, once it breaks below 1335-1136, can retest 1310-1290 levels.

 SIEMENS witness above avg. rolls at 85%, with C-o-C improve, implying long Rolls with stock forming a strong

support around 502-505 and closing at 10 DMA levels 530-536, In short-term if it manages to cross and sustain above it can retest 558-559 levels i.e. 50 DMA, will touch 617 in short term

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FERTILIZER Symbol Spot % Change (M-O-M) Future Basis TGT JUNE. Roll Over Last 6 mth avg Cost Last 6 mth Cost Rank CHAMBLFERT 33.55 -26.18 33.85 0.30 37 86.76 85.2 0.89 0.9 3 TATACHEM 270.05 -10.55 272.30 2.25 250 87.23 81.7 0.83 0.7 2 UNIPHOS 135.10 -12.95 133.65 -1.45 148 93.62 86.0 -1.07 0.8 3 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96

CHAMBLFERT TATACHEM UNIPHOS

JUNE. Roll Over 6mth Avg.

FERTILIZERS sector has seen short rolls, above 6-month avg. 89%, with C-o-C giving signals of selling pressure emerging

 UNIPHOS roll well above avg. at 94% (short rolls as cost decline) with stock closing below 147 -148 levels, i.e. 50

DMA which will act as resistance zone, if stays below can retest a target of 129-130 i.e. 200 DMA.

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JUNE 2013

FINANCE Symbol Spot % Change (M-O-M) Future Basis TGT JUNE. Roll Over Last 6 mth avg Cost Last 6 mth cost Rank HDFC 837.15 (9.62) 841.15 4.00 856 49.76 59.94 0.48 0.40 1 IDFC 125.95 (17.71) 124.40 (1.55) 135 73.45 76.00 (1.23) 0.57 5 IFCI 22.20 (14.94) 22.30 0.10 20 78.17 87.55 0.45 0.77 5 LICHSGFIN 248.40 (8.00) 247.20 (1.20) 265 91.82 88.41 (0.48) 0.74 3 PFC 138.70 (27.48) 139.75 1.05 150 89.49 81.67 0.76 0.08 2 RELCAPITAL 324.15 (3.70) 326.50 2.35 340 82.50 83.33 0.72 0.75 3 SRTRANSFIN 719.75 (10.73) 724.50 4.75 690 74.03 68.99 0.66 0.35 2 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 HDF C ID F C IF C I L ICHS G F IN PF C R E L C API T A L SR T R AN S F IN

JUNE. Roll Over 6mth Avg.

FINANCE sector saw a drop in rolls at 77% below avg. 78%, above market wide rolls, with C-o-C flat to positive, showing sector seeing supportive buying:

 SRITRANSFIN for 3rd

month has seen above avg. rolls at 76% (lower than last month, above 6mth avg. with higher cost), implying long rolled, stock has consolidated and managed to hold above levels of 702-703, where 200 DMA is placed, if holds above these levels, expect to test 750-751 levels.

 HDFC has witnessed below average roll 50% with Cost pos M-o-M, with stock rebounding from 810-815, will act

a strong bottom, immediate resistance 837-840 (i.e. 50 DMA), if manages to cross expect to test 905-910 levels.

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FMCG Symbol Spot % Change (M-O-M) Future Basis TGT JUNE Roll Over Last 6 mth avg Cost Last 6 mth Cost Rank ASIANPAINT 4,538.10 (7.64) 4,564.95 26.85 4,250 40.73 56.96 0.59 0.50 4 BATAINDIA 804.65 (2.52) 811.45 6.80 760 79.29 93.35 0.85 0.66 4 COLPAL 1,336.80 (8.39) 1,344.60 7.80 1,406 81.26 78.14 0.58 0.71 1 DABUR 153.85 (1.94) 154.60 0.75 142 74.78 71.59 0.49 0.58 2 GODREJIND 306.20 (0.13) 305.90 (0.30) 320 70.65 75.40 (0.10) 0.66 2 HINDUNILVR 588.95 (1.11) 566.60 (22.35) 585 49.55 65.02 (3.79) 0.46 4 ITC 321.70 (9.20) 323.80 2.10 330 42.96 57.89 0.65 0.31 3 MCDOWELL-N 2,222.00 (8.93) 2,240.00 18.00 2,100 92.41 92.94 0.81 0.87 4 MCLEODRUSS 271.55 (8.91) 267.40 (4.15) 290 82.28 94.70 (1.53) 0.65 3 TATAGLOBAL 129.30 (12.64) 130.40 1.10 122 74.05 87.54 0.85 0.48 4 TITAN 222.80 (25.98) 222.10 (0.70) 202 88.42 76.36 (0.31) 0.51 5 0 20 40 60 80 100 AS IA N P AI N T BA T A IN D IA CO L P A L DA B U R GO D R E J IN D HI NDU NI L V R IT C MCD O WE L L -N MC L E O D R U S S TA TA G L O B A L TI TA N

JUNE Roll Over 6mth Avg.

FMCG sector saw a decline in rolls, well below 6-month avg. 71% well below market wide, with Cost of Carry of counters mixed:

 COLPAL saw rolls of 81% (better than last month) with cost showing a jump, technically stock has formed a

strong bottom 1305-1310 levels, one should trade with positive bias once it cross and sustain above 1368-1370 i.e. 200 DMA levels expect to retest further north levels of 14121-1415 levels.

 GODREJIND has seen below avg. roll 71% with increase in Cost implying shorts squeeze, stock has given fresh

break out above 302-304 levels, i.e. 20 and 50 DMA, expect to retest 315-318 levels with a SL of 290. Overall the sector may be a market performer, Mid Caps looking much strong.

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INFRASTRUCTURE Symbol Spot % Change (M-O-M) Future Basis TGT JUNE Roll Over Last 6 mth avg Cost Last 6 mth Cost Rank GMRINFRA 16.95 (16.91) 17.05 0.10 19 88.93 86.51 0.59 0.77 4 IRB 94.45 (21.97) 95.10 0.65 86 94.91 89.39 0.69 0.72 3 80 100 G M RINF RA _IRB

JUNE Roll Over 6mth AVG.

INFRASTRUCTURE stocks saw a pickup in rolls at 92%, well above its 6-month average, with the majority of counters C-o-C dip, implying short Rolls.

 GMRINFRA showing above avg. rolls of 89% with C-o-C decline, implying short rolls, with stock closing at 52

week low 16.5-17 levels, if continues to remain below and face resistance at 19 next test below 16.5, 14 levels.

We continue our stance on the sector to market underperformer with majority stocks witnessing short Rolls; in short term expect more correction.

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JUNE 2013

MEDIA Symbol Spot % Change (M-O-M) Future Basis TGT JUNE Roll Over Last 6 mth avg Cost Last 6 mth Cost Rank DISHTV 60.40 (8.21) 60.95 0.55 62 65.89 79.80 0.91 0.63 3 SUNTV 368.85 (12.40) 371.30 2.45 446 78.47 80.43 0.66 0.67 1 ZEEL 236.10 0.47 235.75 (0.35) 212 85.72 80.17 (0.15) 0.59 2 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

DISHTV SUNTV ZEEL

JUNE Roll Over

MEDIA sector has seen a decline below 6mth avg. rolls at 77%, in line with market wide.

 ZEETV have seen aggressive above avg. rolls of 86% also with cost showing a jump with stock managing to

move and sustain above 233-234 level closing above 50 DMA 233, till it trades above 224 one should accumulate for a price target of 246-253.

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JUNE 2013

METALS Symbol Spot % Change (M-O-M) Future Basis TGT JUNE. Roll Over Last 6 mth avg Cost Last 6 mth Cost Rank HINDALCO 95.80 (10.34) 96.45 0.65 99 77.12 83.91 0.68 0.66 3 HINDZINC 96.95 (17.84) 97.85 0.90 106 87.80 79.64 0.93 0.62 3 JINDALSTEL 201.25 (32.08) 202.75 1.50 215 78.43 78.59 0.75 0.62 3 JSWSTEEL 643.40 (10.40) 637.40 (6.00) 610 83.67 83.25 (0.93) 0.25 5 NMDC 100.55 (15.68) 101.50 0.95 108 78.13 81.57 0.94 0.60 2 SAIL 48.45 (17.95) 48.80 0.35 54 84.50 76.82 0.72 0.35 4 SESAGOA 138.40 (12.21) 138.05 (0.35) 144 79.29 76.87 (0.25) 0.44 3 STER 79.15 (13.17) 79.90 0.75 83 89.08 87.83 0.95 0.72 2 TATASTEEL 264.15 (12.43) 258.00 (6.15) 285 77.15 76.36 (2.33) 0.64 3 70 75 80 85 90 95 HINDA L C O HI ND Z INC J INDA L S T E L J S W S T EEL NM DC SA IL SE SAG O A ST E R T A T AST EEL

JUNE. Roll Over 6mth AVG.

METALS have shown an increase in rolls above 6-month average at 82%.

 JSWSTEEL saw better than avg. rolls at 84% (decline M-o-M), with cost decline, with stock closing below 649-650

levels weekly support, sell on rise it stays below 675-690 zone, expect it to retest next support level of 585-587 levels.

 Another stock to watch for STER rolls above avg. at 89% with cost improving stock has formed a strong bottom support 75-76 zone, manage to close at 80 levels, once it sustains above it expect to retest 90-91 levels.

Overall the sector has seen cost decline shorts rolled, expect some pull back as oversold in short term, technical rebound should be used to exit, we expect sector to be underperforming.

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JUNE 2013

OIL & GAS

Symbol Spot % Change (M-O-M) Future Basis TGT JUNE. Roll Over Last 6 mth avg Cost Last 6 mth Cost Rank BPCL 345.65 (9.92) 348.05 2.40 334 68.88 81.16 0.69 0.68 5 CAIRN 288.45 1.35 283.90 (4.55) 300 68.91 82.51 (1.58) 0.79 2 GAIL 299.05 (6.68) 300.75 1.70 310 81.23 62.26 0.57 0.40 1 GSPL 53.05 (8.38) 53.60 0.55 59 88.79 83.69 1.04 0.70 2 HINDPETRO 244.05 (14.61) 246.10 2.05 260 72.65 86.81 0.84 0.77 3 IGL 265.90 (5.27) 267.65 1.75 248 87.92 80.51 0.66 0.70 2 IOC 223.45 (24.13) 225.10 1.65 240 88.33 82.05 0.74 0.75 2 ONGC 320.25 (4.09) 321.90 1.65 340 46.04 62.27 0.52 0.48 1 PETRONET 119.75 (16.29) 120.60 0.85 127 82.03 80.36 0.71 0.53 2 RELIANCE 830.00 (0.81) 835.15 5.15 860 56.64 68.16 0.62 0.54 1 0 25 50 75 100 BP C L CA IR N GA IL GS P L HI NDP E T RO _IGL _IOC ON G C PE T R O N E T RE L IA NCE

JUNE. Roll Over 6mth AVG.

OIL & GAS saw shade below avg. rolls, at 74% with the stocks seeing C-O-C improve sector witness stock specific supportive buying from lower levels

 ONGC saw below avg. rolls at 46% with cost increase, the stock has managed to hold and rebound from crucial

support levels 313-314 and managed to close at 320, with 50 DMA present at 323, till it trades above 300 i.e. 200 DMA support level, expect stock to move higher levels 336-337.

 RIL also saw below avg. rolls at 56% with positive C-O-C, implying short squeeze, stock managed close above

crucial resistance levels 825-826 zones coinciding point of 20 and 200 DMA placed there, if continues to hold above support levels expect to test next stiff resistance levels of 860-880.

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JUNE 2013

PHARMA Symbol Spot % Change (M-O-M) Future Basis TGT JUNE Roll Over Last 6 mth avg Cost Last 6 mth Cost Rank AUROPHARMA 176.95 - 178.20 1.25 167 88.35 87.74 0.71 0.80 3 BIOCON 274.85 1.05 269.70 (5.15) 264 82.44 81.40 (1.87) 0.74 3 CIPLA 387.70 1.23 388.80 1.10 404 71.70 81.19 0.28 0.72 2 DIVISLAB 972.95 0.02 977.80 4.85 1,019 68.85 76.49 0.50 0.68 1 DRREDDY 2,159.25 2.45 2,158.10 (1.15) 2,250 47.51 63.07 (0.05) 0.70 2 LUPIN 771.95 0.85 776.35 4.40 740 60.08 66.16 0.57 0.64 3 OPTOCIRCUI 19.30 (62.01) 19.45 0.15 17 63.06 77.64 0.78 (1.58) 4 RANBAXY 317.70 (16.81) 320.10 2.40 280 75.58 82.26 0.76 0.77 5 SUNPHARMA 971.60 (9.55) 977.95 6.35 1,020 66.95 72.61 0.65 0.49 1 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 A U R O PH AR M A BI O C O N CI P L A D IVI SL AB DRRE DDY LU P IN O P T O CIRCUI RA NB A X Y S U N P HA RM A

JUNE Roll Over 6mth AVG

PHARMA stocks have seen a pickup in rolls at 69% with C-o-C of the majority of stocks positive suggesting stock have seen short covering:

 SUNPHARMA rolls at 67% versus 73% (6-month avg.) with C-o-C improve imply long rolls, technically, the stock

has rebounded from 936-940 zone thus forming a strong bottom, one should buy aggressively till it holds and sustains above 980-981 for a target of 1047-1048.

 CIPLA also saw below average rolls to the tune of 72% (much lower than last month) with C-o-C improving,

implying short squeeze with price charts suggesting strength, with stock holding above 386-387 levels (where 10 and 20 DMA is placed), immediate target 393-396 where 50 and 200 DMA is placed.

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POWER Symbol Spot % Change (M-O-M) Future Basis TGT June. Roll Over Last 6 mth avg Cost Last 6 mth Cost Rank ADANIPOWER 40.15 (31.43) 40.05 (0.10) 44 85.08 81.71 (0.25) 0.62 2 CESC 331.35 0.05 326.00 (5.35) 316 68.20 80.90 (1.61) 0.70 5 JPPOWER 18.65 (24.80) 18.80 0.15 21 83.44 78.98 0.80 0.75 2 JSWENERGY 43.55 (23.60) 41.70 (1.85) 46 86.08 83.78 (4.25) 0.81 2 NHPC 17.75 (8.27) 17.85 0.10 19 82.91 81.43 0.56 0.79 3 NTPC 140.30 (10.41) 141.45 1.15 148 59.77 68.68 0.82 (0.31) 5 POWERGRID 106.55 (6.86) 107.05 0.50 100 53.84 65.28 0.47 0.54 3 PTC 45.25 (20.89) 45.65 0.40 51 79.72 81.87 0.88 0.64 4 RECLTD 192.70 (16.47) 193.70 1.00 206 87.28 77.81 0.52 0.22 2 RELINFRA 329.05 (13.88) 331.40 2.35 350 83.89 82.15 0.71 0.72 3 RPOWER 61.15 (14.89) 61.65 0.50 57 86.32 88.76 0.82 0.89 3 TATAPOWER 81.40 (9.71) 81.80 0.40 88 52.50 63.10 0.49 0.81 3 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 AD AN IP O W ER CE S C J PPO W E R J S W E NE RG Y NHP C NT P C P O W E RG RI D PT C RE CL T D R E L INF RA RP O W E R TA TA P O W E R

POWER stocks saw below six month avg. rolls at 70%, below than the market wide, with stocks C-o-C mixed, clearly suggesting stock specific approach required:

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REALITY Symbol Spot % Change (M-O-M) Future Bais TGT JUNE Roll Over Last 6 mth avg Cost Last 6 mth Cost Rank DLF 176.20 (14.36) 177.30 1.10 186 76.61 72.85 0.62 0.56 1 HDIL 35.20 (21.08) 34.65 (0.55) 35 81.24 75.65 (1.56) (0.54) 2 IBREALEST 60.05 (19.77) 60.50 0.45 64 81.74 86.19 0.75 0.23 3 UNITECH 19.95 (16.70) 20.15 0.20 21 83.22 81.33 1.00 0.69 4 65 70 75 80 85 90

DLF HDIL IBREALEST UNITECH

REALTY Sector has seen above avg. rolls at 81%, with C-O-C recovering from lower levels suggesting supportive buying emerging in some stocks:

 HDIL 81% positions rolled, above avg. along with cost improve, long rolled and bottoming out on chart as stock

closing above 34-35 10-20 DMA, if manages to cross above 37 buy aggressively, expect to retest higher levels 47-48 levels.

 DLF also saw roll of 77% above avg. with cost improve month on month; with a stock rebounding from a long term

support of 161-162, if moves above and sustain 179-180, expect it to move north to 188-197 levels. Overall expect the sector seeing some supportive buying, expect perform in line with NIFTY.

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TECHNOLOGY Symbol Spot % Change (M-O-M)

Future Basis TGT JUNE Roll Over Last 6 mth avg Cost Last 6 mth Cost Rank FINANTECH 756.40 (10.05) 762.10 5.70 770 83.77 83.18 0.75 0.64 3 HCLTECH 795.40 7.20 799.85 4.45 735 71.75 70.45 0.56 0.59 2 HEXAWARE 82.60 1.29 83.25 0.65 87 86.08 83.31 0.79 0.33 1 INFY 2,482.80 6.04 2,490.10 7.30 2,600 57.74 60.52 0.29 0.33 2 OFSS 2,667.20 0.79 2,689.75 22.55 3,000 81.22 89.52 0.85 0.77 2 TCS 1,491.90 (0.50) 1,486.15 (5.75) 1,535 79.56 68.85 (0.39) 0.16 2 TECHM 1,080.80 10.42 1,074.05 (6.75) 1,127 81.68 79.59 (0.62) 0.35 3 WIPRO 347.10 3.27 349.80 2.70 360 82.77 69.15 0.78 0.38 2 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 F INA NT E C H HCL T E CH H E XAW A R E IN F Y OF S S TC S T E CHM WI P R O

JUNE Roll Over 6mth ROLLS

TECHNOLOGY sector rolls higher than market wide at 78%, better than its 6-month average, two stocks worth looking at

 HEXAWARE has shown 86% in line with six month avg. with C-o-C improve (higher than last month), implying

long rolled, Technically, the stock has rebounded from crucial support levels 79-80 i.e. 20 DMA, and closed above 81-82 i.e. 50 DMA, buy on dips with Target price of 94 i.e. 200 DMA

 Large Cap TCS saw above avg. rollover of 80% with Cost improve; signals of Long roll technically stock has closed above crucial resistance zone levels of 1447-1454 20 and 50 DMA, till it hold above these support levels it can head towards 1553-1560.

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TELECOM Symbol Spot % Change (M-O-M) Future Basis TGT June. Roll Over Last 6 mth avg Cost Last 6 mth Cost Rank BHARTIARTL 280.75 (10.99) 282.80 2.05 335 58.40 61.37 0.73 0.61 4 IDEA 139.85 4.76 140.40 0.55 136 53.76 81.81 0.39 0.29 3 RCOM 115.75 5.32 113.45 (2.30) 101 75.14 79.58 (1.99) 0.65 3 TATACOMM 152.85 (27.82) 151.60 (1.25) 200 89.05 89.41 (0.82) 0.68 3 0 20 40 60 80 100 B H AR T IAR T L ID E A RCO M TA TA C O M M

TELECOM sector showing a drop in roll, below 6-month average and, also below the market wide at 69% rolls.

 BHARTI saw below avg. roll of 58% (with cost flat), imply long unwind with stock has facing stiff resistance around

levels of 300-303 where 50 and 200 DMA was placed, till holds below this zone, will retest 275-268 levels, below 268 weakness will persist and BHARTI

With stocks in sector suggesting long unwind, Telecom may be market under performer as long formed seen to be exiting at higher levers any exposure towards telecom one should trim down position on rise.

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TEXTILES Symbol Spot % Change (M-O-M) Future Basis TGT June Roll Over Last 6 mth avg Cost Last 6 mth Cost Rank ABIRLANUVO 1,027.30 (3.81) 1,035.05 7.75 996 80.44 89.06 0.75 0.84 2 ARVIND 76.50 (6.65) 75.40 (1.10) 70 85.24 81.50 (1.44) 0.80 4 PANTALOONR 89.60 (35.10) 90.00 0.40 100 80.45 81.75 0.45 0.59 1 RAYMOND 237.65 (16.11) 239.65 2.00 220 93.97 87.97 0.84 0.71 3 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

ABIRLANUVO ARVIND PANTALOONR RAYMOND

June Roll Over 6mth AVG.

TEXTILE sector saw flat rolls at 84% however, well above market wide at 75%, mainly due to pure textile play stocks like:

 ARVIND saw better below avg. rolls of 85% (Cost decline.) some selling pressure with stock receding from

resistance 80-81; and closed at crucial support 74-75 where 52 week low is placed; if it move below this level expect sell off to test 71-66 levels.

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DIVERSIFIED Symbol Spot % Change M-O-M Future Basis TGT JUNE Roll Over Last 6 mth avg Cost Last 6 mth Cost Rank ADANIENT 191.85 (13.64) 192.40 0.55 202 57.8 82.6 0.3 0.6 1 ADANIPORTS 149.75 (3.17) 150.35 0.60 139 55.9 68.4 0.4 0.8 5 COALINDIA 287.30 (12.33) 289.25 1.95 312 63.2 63.5 0.7 0.3 1 HAVELLS 712.35 (1.74) 712.95 0.60 715 69.9 60.6 0.1 (3.3) 3 INDHOTEL 47.50 (9.95) 47.45 (0.05) 59 84.9 91.1 (0.1) 1.0 3 JISLJALEQS 52.50 (25.05) 52.80 0.30 56 87.5 88.5 0.6 0.9 1 JUBLFOOD 1,036.15 (6.27) 1,040.70 4.55 1,080 87.9 78.5 0.4 0.5 2 RENUKA 15.30 (29.49) 15.45 0.15 17 91.0 88.2 1.0 1.2 1 SINTEX 37.85 (21.39) 38.15 0.30 40 85.0 86.0 0.8 1.0 2 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 AD AN IE N T AD A N IP O R T S CO A L INDI A H AVEL L S INDHO T E L JI S L J A L E QS JU B L F O OD

AmongDiversified as we can see, stocks have seen in line with avg. rolls, with cost flat to positive implying short covering and supportive buying seen in stocks like ADANIENT, which have seen below above avg. M-O-M to the tune of 58% versus 83%, with C-o-C improve, suggesting short squeeze, also with stock closing at resistance zone 192-194, immediate support 182-183 treat as a SL expect to retest resistance levels 213.

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Research Team

Vivek Mahajan Hemant Thukral

Head of Research Head – Derivatives Desk

022-61802820 022-61802870

vivek.mahajan@adityabirla.com hemant.thukral@adityabirla.com

Fundamental Team

Akhil Jain Metals & Mining/Mid Caps 022-61802827 akhil.jain@adityabirla.com Sunny Agrawal FMCG/Cement/Mid Caps 022-61802831 sunny.agrawal@adityabirla.com Sumit Jatia Banking & Finance 022-61802833 sumit.jatia@adityabirla.com Shreyans Mehta Construction/Real Estate 022-61802829 shreyans.m@adityabirla.com Dinesh Kumar Information Technology/Auto 022-61802834 dinesh.kumar.k@adityabirla.com Pradeep Parkar Database Analyst 022-61802839 pradeep.parkar@adityabirla.com

Quantitative Team

Jyoti Nangrani Sr. Technical Analyst 022-61802838 jyoti.nangrani@adityabirla.com Sudeep Shah Technical Analyst 022-61802837 sudeep.shah@adityabirla.com

Advisory Support

Indranil Dutta Advisory Desk – HNI 022-61802824 indranil.dutta@adityabirla.com Suresh Gardas Advisory Desk 022-61802835 suresh.gardas@adityabirla.com Sandeep Pandey Advisory Desk 022-61802832 sandeep.pandey@adityabirla.com

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