Talking Tech:
Understand today,
plan for peak
weeks ahead
Analyzing the drivers and shapers
of tech and durables markets
GfK Webinar: September 30, 2020
Tatjana Wismeth
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Detect potential challenges on all touchpoints of the supply chain
DIS as “sell-through”
Insights on sales from distributors/
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POS as “sell-out”
Insights on sales from retailers & resellers
to end-customers (B2B/B2C).
Get access to the sourcing behavior of retailers/
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what will happen next at the POS.
Get familiar with consumers behavior
and discover what consumers are buying,
▪
Markets move from
“want” to “need”
▪
@home focus emerges
as a huge business
opportunity
Peak season 2020 is likely to
remain stable, but disruption
and volatility is in the detail
Disruption accelerates change
and creates opportunities
Disruption
Acceleration
Business 2.0
▪
Consumer demand
is not where it was before
▪
Business digitization
Disruption
From “I want it now”
to “I need it now”
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2,0
Q1/18
Q2/18
Q3/18
Q4/18
Q1/19
Q2/19
Q3/19
Q4/19
Q1/20
Q2/20
Q3/20
Supply chains under pressure – distributors as
key partners to compensate shortages
Source: GfK Distribution Intelligence, WEU, share of goods supplied via distributors to POS Retailers & Resellers
Western
Europe
Share of goods
supplied via
distribution
Sha
re
in
1
00
%
Retailers & resellers buy more from distributors
Source: GfK Distribution Intelligence, WEU, growth YoY of share of goods supplied via distributors to POS Retailers & Resellers
Smartphones
+9
%
Mobile computing
+4
%
POS retailers
POS resellers
Smartphones
+40
%
Mobile computing
+25
%
Cartridges
+16
%
Desk computing
+8
%
Keying & pointing
+40
%
Monitors
+30
%
From “I want it now” to I need it now”
Impact on consumer demand
Source: GfK Market Intelligence, All countries excl. China, Value EUR growth
12
-26
26
10
-50
-25
0
25
50
TCG
Small Domestic Appliances
Information Technology
I need it now
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
I want it now
TCG
–
All countries ex.
China | Value
Growth % YoY |
CW 1 – 35 2020
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
1,4
1,6
Mi
lli
ar
den
B2B 2020
B2B 2019
From planned investments to disruption
Impact on distributor sales to B2B channels
Source: GfK Distribution Intelligence, Global 47 excl. China, Value EUR
Disruption
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
Planned investment
B2B
Hardware
–
Global 47 | Value
in EUR | CW 1 –
38 2020
in
bill
ion
s
+6%
growth YoY
IT B2B sales 2020 YTD vs.
4% B2B total market
@home
emerges as a huge
business opportunity
Accelerated demand for digital transformation
@home
Eat & clean@home
Work@home
Health &
hygiene@home
+11
%
Digital transformation @ Enterprises
more goods were sold from distributors
to small & medium resellers in 2020
54%
38%
35%
29%
19%
17%
16%
16%
13%
7%
Visual
Cams
Mobile
PCs
Media-tablets
Mainboards
Inkjet-cartridges
Headsets
Processors
Multimedia
Devices
Comm.
Cards
Pointing
Devices
Increased need for digital readiness
Growth sales units YTD vs. 2019 in %
Source: GfK Distribution Intelligence, EU5 sales units, B2B channels only, growth Jan-Aug 2020 compared to previous year period by product category
EU5
top demanded
high-tech
categories by
IT/Office market continuously expands,
while other TCG markets recover from crisis
Source: GfK Market Intelligence, all tracked countries, Sales EUR Value Growth % Year-on-Year
Monthly
EUR value
growth % YoY,
all countries
TCG excl. IT/Office
IT/Office
4%
18%
27%
21%
-1%
-15%
-24%
3%
6%
Jan 20
Feb 20
Mar 20
Apr 20
May 20
Jun 20
Jul 20
Aug 20
Sep 20
IT/Office
TCG excl. IT/Office
Expectation of
>15% growth
for IT/Office
70
%
of those employed
or are students globally
worked from home at
least weekly this summer
Shifting demand patterns and consumer trends
Source: GfK Consumer Life 2020, global, core 18 countries
@home
Eat & clean@home
Work@home
Health &
hygiene@home
69
%
Focus on in-home
of global consumers who cook
for fun at least weekly
Panic, adapt and reopening phase – COVID-19
Impact on TCG sales
Source: GfK Market Intelligence, All countries excl. China, Value EUR growth
TCG
All countries ex.
China | Value
Growth % YoY |
CW 1 – 35 2020
12
-26
26
10
-50,0
-25,0
0,0
25,0
50,0
TCG
Small Domestic Appliances
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
In-home focus
+102
%
Kitchen machines
+31
%
Handstick vacuum cleaner
+40
%
Espresso full automatic
+16
%
Dishwasher
All countries
May–July 2020,
Shifting demand patterns and consumer trends
Source: GfK Consumer Life 2020
@home
Eat & clean@home
Work@home
Health &
hygiene@home
49
%
Global respondents' agreement
I actively look for products and services
that help me live a healthy lifestyle
+12%
Well-being has gained extra focus due
to COVID-19
Source: GfK Market Intelligence; product groups for Well-being: BPM, Digital Thermometer, Personal Scales, Hot Air Fryers, Juicers/Presses, Liquidizers, Hot Air Fryers, Air Treatment, Water filter, Dental Care, Personal Care: Hair Stylers, hair dryers, Hair clippers, Shavers, El. Cosmetics YTD: Jan-Jun 2020 vs Jan-Jun 2017
SDA global
26%
29%
Health &
well-being
2017
Well-being
Personal care
Rest of SDA
2020
+6
%
Water filter
+20
%
Air treatment
+32
%
Washing machines
with steam
All countries
May–July 2020,
value USD fix growth
Categories
like digital
thermometer
saw
400%
growth
in
April 2020
across EU4
Acceleration
Business demand for
infrastructure stronger than
ever; consumer demand not
where it was before
-3,6
1,8
-6,5
8,4
-16,5
0,9
-0,6
-4,1
-0,2
-12,0
22,3
9,4
24,0
25,8
22,7
69,0
29,6
9,4
5,1
16,0
Consumers in need – online sales disrupt usual
buying patterns with sustainable effect
Source: GfK Distribution panel, Traditional vs. Online, Sales units growth in % by week compared to previous year period
Global
sales units
growth
in % (PYP)
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August September
Traditional
Online
Development underlies pandemic situation
Source: GfK Distribution, Global, WEU, LATAM, sales units, Sales value EUR growth per period compared to PY
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
Total
WEU
LATAM
Challenges:
▪
WEU countries lifted
lockdown measures
already
▪
LATAM still faces
lockdowns and
restrictions for
traditional sales
▪
However, second wave
could change situation
in WEU
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
Online sales
(Sales units)
TCG
online
Value share %
online sales
Jul 20 Jun 20 May 20 Apr 20 Mar 20Consumer demand: Not where it was before;
sustainable increase in e-commerce
Source: GfK Market Intelligence, Panelmarket, International coverage (excl. North America & South Africa), Sales Value USD with a fixed exchange rate, Value Growth % Year-on-Year
Technical Consumer Goods (TCG): Consumer Electronics, IT, Office Equipment, Multifunctional Technical Goods, Photo, Telecom, Small & Major Domestic Appliances (incl. Aircon), Personal Diagnosis Devices PRJ 101566/206542 - RG 5481054 - RP 37600691 - ID 569248389
2019 YTD
41% 53% 39% 33% 32%Eastern Europe
34% 64% 51% 40% 39%CIS Countries
12% 16% 14% 13% 13%Developed Asia
6% 15% 13% 7% 6%Middle East &
Africa
13% 28% 16% 11% 11%Emerging Asia
20%
27%
37%
48% 42% 40% 52% 40%China
39% 58% 46% 38% 35%Western Europe
31% 58% 49% 41% 41%LATAM
Consumer demand: Click & mortar growth is a
game changer – omnichannel experience matters
Source: GfK Market Intelligence, EU5, CW1 – CW 34 2020 sales value growth % YoY, Technical consumer goods include: Telecom: Smartphones, headsets – IT: Mobile/Desk computing (excl. Media sticks/boxes), media tablets, monitors, keying devices, pointing devices – Office: Laser and inkjet printers – Consumer Electronics (CE): TVs, audio home systems, soundbars – Major domestic appliances (MDA):
Cooling and washing machines – Small domestic appliances (SDA): Vacuum cleaners, shavers, food preparation, dental care, hot beverage makers; Value is in EUR NSP (non-subsidized price) fix.
EU5
TCG | value
growth % YoY |
CW 1 – 34 2020
213
81
78
42
-71
5
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
Trad. Retail online shops
Pure Player online
Traditional sales
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
YTD:
-13
%
Traditional
retail only
YTD:
+33
%
Pure Player
online
YTD:
+88
%
Trad. Retail
online shops
Support omnichannel retail to become consultative,
educational and trusted
Consumers expect the same level
of consultation online as in-store
Safe and secure payment
and delivery options
Apps, videos, images (and beyond)
creating awareness of the products
and its use cases
New reality
Business reality 2.0 –
outlook Q4 2020
Recovery is to continue, but at slower pace. End of
year peak season is likely to be stable overall
GfK Point of Sales Tracking, CW1 – CW 35 2020 sales units growth % YoY, *AR, BE, BR, CL, CZ, FR, DE, GB, GR, HU, IT, JP, KZ, NL, PE, PT, RU, ES, TW, TH, TR, UA, VN
TCG
All countries
ex. China | Value
EU Growth %
YoY | CW 15 – 35
2020
-25
26
3
11
-50
-25
0
25
50
TCG benchmark
Post lock-down
recovery
“Revenge
shopping”
continued
@home focus
stable peak season
Softening growth &
Recovery is to continue, but at slower pace. End of
year peak season is likely to be stable overall.
Source: GfK Market Intelligence, Global ex. North America, Sales USD Value Growth % fix Year-on-Year ; GfK Distribution Radar study, Europe 9, 2019/20
Tech &
durables
total
Cumulated value
growth % YoY,
all countries
0%
-5%
-8%
-11%
-8%
-6%
-4%
Jan 20
Jan-Feb 20
Jan-Mar 20
Jan-Apr 20
Jan-May 20
Jan-Jun 20
Jan-Jul 20
Jan-Dec 20
TCG total
Expectation of
0
%
for 2020
84
% of EU retailers &
resellers expect stable or
slightly growing revenue in
2020
New reality in tech & durables markets – surging
IT/Office while smartphones are not a priority
Source: GfK Market Intelligence and total market estimation incl. North America, based on a fixed currency exchange rate Forecasting date: Sept 18, 2020 , not assuming 2ndlockdowns | Huge sector/regional volatility in a disrupted yet resilient market
Telecom
Major Domestic
Appliances
IT incl. Office
Products
Small Domestic
Appliances
Consumer Electronics
incl. Photo
9,3%
10,1%
14,6%
14,3%
15,7%
18,0%
17,9%
17,5%
42,6%
40,1%
2019
2020F
+0.4%
+0.0%
-6%
-2%
+15%
-1%
Sales Value total
€1,038bn
+0%
2020 (forecast)
+9%
Value
Growth %
The current
21% growth
corresponds to just
4% of
households
with add on demand
(i.e. purchasing one additional device)
There is more IT demand potential in Europe
A more long-term growth trend becomes visible
Source: Eurostat, GfK Market Intelligence, Computers and Mediatablets
~300m
households
in Europe
(incl. CIS)
~60m
computing
devices
sold a year
work@home
learn@home
The rise of
Millennial
workers
will
drive
demand further
50
% of Millennials find
new
technology exciting
and use
it as much as they can, vs.
46% of Gen Z,
39% of Gen X, and
32% of Boomers
GfK Consumer Life Global 2020
~100m
households
with children
Future areas for growth
Security Software & Hardware as
upcoming revenue potential for
2020+ for both, B2C & B2B
Rising demand for (un)managed
services to complement hardware &
software sales in 2020+
Consumers spending more time at
home increasingly trigger sales for
Home Automation & Smart Home
Security
Home automation
Services
▪
Markets move from
“want” to “need”.
▪
@home focus emerges
as a huge business
opportunity
Peak season 2020 is likely to
remain stable, but disruption
and volatility is in the detail.
Disruption accelerates change
and creates opportunities
Disruption
Acceleration
Business 2.0
▪
Consumer demand
is not where it was before,
omnichannel experience
matters more than ever.
▪
Business digitalization
accelerates need for fast
adaption and strong
partnerships
Get ready for this
year’s peak season
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This year’s peak weeks will be more challenging than ever. Expect fierce
competition as manufacturers and retailers will look to make up lost
revenue in a tough economic climate, amidst rapidly changing consumer
behavior and attitudes.
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and when, is going to be vital to success.
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