REPUBLIC OF THE PHILIPPINES DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION LEARNING GUIDE

GRADE VI - MATHEMATICS

SIMPLE PROBABILITY

MODULE 17: PREDICTION AND OUTCOME

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Mind Map

The Mind Map displays the organization and relationship between the concepts and activities in this Learning Guide in a visual form. It is included to provide visual clues on the structure of the guide and to provide an opportunity for you, the teacher, to reorganize the guide to suit your particular context.

Stages of Learning

The following stages have been identified as optimal in this unit. It should be noted that the stages do not represent individual lessons. Rather, they are a series of stages over one or more lessons and indicate the suggested steps in the development of the targeted competencies and in the achievement of the stated objectives.

Assessment

All six Stages of Learning in this Learning Guide may include some advice on possible formative assessment ideas to assist you in determining the effectiveness of that stage on student learning. It can also provide information about whether the learning goals set for that stage have been achieved. Where possible, and if needed, you can use the formative assessment tasks for summative assessment purposes i.e as measures of student performance. It is important that your students know what they will be assessed on.

1. Activating Prior Learning

This stage aims to engage or focus the learners by asking them to call to mind what they know about the topic and connect it with their past learning. Activities could involve making personal connections.

Background or purpose

In this stage, students' will guess possibilities of an event to occur using a sunshine wheel.

Strategy

GRAPHIC ORGANIZERS. These are maps that represent student thinking. They involve students in skills like sequencing, comparing and classifying to create representations of concepts and processes. These mental maps depict complex relationships and can become “blue prints” that make abstract ideas more visible and concrete.

Materials

• enlarged sunshine wheel (refer to Teacher Resource Sheet 1 on page 9)

• marking pen

• manila or cartolina paper

• masking tape

Activity 1: “Flying Fork”

1. Prior to the activity, enlarge the sunshine wheel and the situation separately on a manila paper or cartolina.

2. Organize the students into 4 groups or as desired. 3. Distribute the materials to each group.

4. Present the sunshine wheel so they will have uniformity in the presentation of answers in visuals.

5. Post the situation and questions on the board for them to answer. Let them write their idea on a sheet of paper. Instruct them to arrange and paste the sheets like a sunshine on a manila paper. Let them refer to the enlarged sunshine wheel so that they will be guided.

6. Ask them to present their outputs for comparison and discussion.

Formative Assessment

Ensure the involvement of each student during the group activity.

Roundup

Students would have guessed possibilities of an event to occur using a sunshine wheel.

2. Setting the Context

This stage introduces the students to what will happen in the lessons. The teacher sets the objectives/expectations for the learning experience and an overview how the learning experience will fit into the larger scheme.

Background or purpose

Students will enumerate possible ways of finding the solutions to the given problems.

Strategy

BRAINSTORMING. This is a process used for generating many ideas to be written down or recorded.

Material

• problem strips (refer to Teacher Resource Sheet 2 on pages 10-11)

Imagine dropping a plastic fork. What do

you think will be the position of the fork as it

lands? Give your guess.

Activity 2: “Let's Brainstorm”

1. Organize the students into 8 groups. Provide one strip to each group.

2. Ask them to brainstorm the possible ways of finding the solutions to each problem at a given time. Let them write their ideas.

3. Then, instruct them to keep their notes as these shall be checked on the next activity.

Formative Assessment

Encourage and monitor the involvement of each member in sharing their ideas.

Roundup

Students would have enumerated possible ways of finding the solutions to the given problems.

3. Learning Activity Sequence

This stage provides the information about the topic and the activities for the students. Students should be encouraged to discover their own information.

Background or purpose

Students will make simple predictions and tell the favorable outcomes/chances.

Strategies

GAME. This is a strategy in which players' decision-making skills are highly significant in

determining outcomes. This strategy attempts to capture the decisions and processes inherent to some real-world situations. (en. wikipedia.org/wiki/Stategy_game)

MODELING. This explicitly demonstrates the cognitive processes and skills required of a learner for a particular task.

Materials

• activity sheet (refer to Student Activity 3 on pages 12-14)

• problem strips used in stage 2

• four-colored spinner (red, green, blue, and yellow)

• number strips with numbers 1 to 5

• die

• marbles (6 red, 5 green, 8 blue, and 3 yellow)

• jar

Activity 3: “Prediction and Outcome”

1. Prior to the activity, reproduce six sets of the problem strips used in activity 2. 2. Organize the students into six groups and distribute the materials.

3. Let them perform the task in each problem strip at a given time.

Formative Assessment

Encourage each student to participate actively. Monitor the progress of each group by roaming around.

Check their outputs.

Roundup

Students would have made simple predictions and given favorable outcomes/chances.

4. Check for Understanding of the Topic or Skill

This stage is for teachers to find out how much students have understood before they apply it to other learning experiences.

Background or purpose

In this stage, students' learning on simple probability will be checked.

Strategy

GAME. This is a strategy in which players' decision-making skills are highly significant in

determining outcomes. This strategy attempts to capture the decisions and processes inherent to some real-world situations. (en. wikipedia.org/wiki/Stategy_game)

Materials

• sets of playing cards (refer to Teacher Resource Sheet 3 on page 15)

• activity sheet (refer to Student Activity 4, “Probabilities”, on page 16)

Activity 4: “Probabilities”

Instructions:

1. Prior to the activity, prepare the playing cards. 2. Organize the students into 5 groups or as desired.

3. Distribute the materials and let them perform the activity at a given time. 4. Process the activity through an interactive discussion.

Formative Assessment

Monitor the involvement of each student during the activity. Check their outputs.

Roundup

Students' learning on simple probability would have been checked.

5. Practice and Application

In this stage, students consolidate their learning through independent or guided practice and transfer their learning to new or different situations.

Background or purpose

Strategy

ROTATING STATIONS. This strategy allows each group to perform the task in each station. Post the tasks in 6 different stations or distinct parts of the classroom. Each group will move from one station to another in any order. (Adopted from Learning Stations)

Materials

• enlarged problem (refer to Teacher Resource Sheet 4 on page 17)

• masking tape

• marking pen

Activity 5: “Chances”

1. Post each problem in a distinct station/area in the classroom.

2. Organize the students into 4 groups. Assign each group to a specific station. 3. Let them discuss the problem at a given time.

4. After which, let each group move to the next station in a clockwise direction. 5. Instruct them to do steps 3 and 4 until they have visited all the stations.

6. Then, ask each group to present their outputs on the first station where they were assigned for comparison and discussion.

Formative Assessment

Ensure the participation of each student during the activity. Check their outputs.

Roundup

Students' learning on simple probability would have been applied through real-life situations.

6. Closure

This stage brings the series of lessons to a formal conclusion. Teachers may refocus the objectives and summarize the learning gained. Teachers can also foreshadow the next set of learning

experiences and make the relevant links.

Background or purpose

Students' learning on simple probability will be summarized through journal writing.

Strategy

JOURNAL. This provides a good opportunity for students to demonstrate and reflect on their learning. This serves as a good source of assessment for teachers.

Material

• journal (refer to Student Activity 4, “My Reflection”, on page 18)

Activity 6: “My Reflection”

Instructions:

2. Give 10 to 20 minutes or as desired for them to reflect their learning on the journal. 3. Ask volunteers to share their outputs to the class.

Formative Assessment

Assess their journal using the suggested rubric on page 19.

Roundup

Students' learning on simple probability would have been summarized through journal writing.

Teacher Evaluation

(To be completed by the teacher using this Teacher’s Guide) The ways I will evaluate the success of my teaching this unit are: 1.

TEACHER RESOURCE SHEET 1

SUNSHINE WHEEL

Directions:

Enlarge the sunshine wheel on a manila paper.

SUNSHINE WHEEL

TEACHER RESOURCE SHEET 2

WORD PROBLEMS

Directions

: Reproduce and cut each problem. Give a set to each

group.

A single die is rolled.

What is the chance of

getting each number? an

even number? an odd

number?

Choose a number at random

from 1 to 5. What is the

chance of getting each

number? What is the chance

that the number chosen is

even? What is the probability

that the number chosen is

odd?

A spinner has 4 equal

sections

colored

yellow, blue, green

and

red.

After

spinning the spinner,

what

is

the

probability of landing

on each color?

blue

red

STUDENT ACTIVITY 3

PREDICTION AND OUTCOME

Objectives:

Make simple predictions and tell the number of favorable

outcomes/chances.

Directions:

1. Make simple predictions for the possible outcomes/chances for the situation in

each strip. Record your answer under the

prediction

column in each

corresponding table.

2. After which, perform each task using the given materials.

3. Then, complete each table.

Roll the die

Face

Number of

Chances/Outcome _{Total Number of} Faces

Probability

(Actual/Total number of faces)

Prediction Actual

Note: Actual

face of a die

2

3

4

5

6

Odd numbers

Even numbers

Question:

•

Are there equal chances to get each face? Support your answer.

•

Based on the above data, define

prediction

in your own words.

Spin

Color

Number of

Chances/Outcome _{Total Number of Sections (Actual/Total number of} Probability sections)

Prediction Actual RED

BLUE YELLOW GREEN

Question:

•

Are there equal chances to land on red, blue, yellow, and green sections? Justify your

answer.

Pick a marble

Marbles Number of Chances/Outcome Total Number of Marbles

Probability (Actual/number of

marbles) Prediction Actual

RED BLUE YELLOW GREEN

Question:

•

Are there equal chances to get red and blue marbles? Why?

TASK 2

Pick a number

Number Outcome Total Number of

numbers Probability Prediction Actual

1

2

3

4

5

Questions:

•

Are the outcomes from 1-5 equally likely to occur? How about the even and the odd?

Why?

TEACHER RESOURCE SHEET 3: PLAYING CARDS

Directions:

Reproduce each card based on the number of copies in each set as

indicated below. Paste it on a hard paper or cartolina and cut.

•

bee - 2 cards

•

mosquito – 3 cards

•

beetle – 1 card

STUDENT ACTIVITY 4

PROBABILITIES

Objective

: Give the ratio of favorable outcomes or probabilities from a given set.

Directions:

•

Lay the cards on the floor or on your armchair.

•

Use the cards to determine your answers and test/check

them.

•

What is the probability of picking the following cards out of

the given cards:

•

dragonfly

•

bee

•

mosquito

•

bettle

•

fly

_____________________

_____________________

_____________________

_____________________

_____________________

TEACHER RESOURCE SHEET 4

PROBLEMS

Directions: Enlarge each problem on a manila paper or cartolina.

What is the probability of

choosing a vowel from the

English

alphabet?

a

consonant?

A number from 1 to 20 is

chosen at random. What is the

probability of choosing an odd

number?

There are 5 lollipops and 2

candy bars in a bag. What is the

probability of picking a lollipop? a

candy bar?

STUDENT ACTIVITY 6

MY REFLECTION

Name: ________________________________________________Date: ____________________

Topic: ________________________________________________Rating: ___________________

Things I learned

Probability is

__________________________________________________________________

__________________________________________________________________.

The outcomes are equally likely to occur when

__________________________________________________________________

__________________________________________________________________.

The outcomes are not equally likely to occur when

__________________________________________________________________

__________________________________________________________________.

I can apply what I have learned in solving problems involving simple probability

through:

__________________________________________________________________

__________________________________________________________________

__________________________________________________________________

__________________________________________________________________

The things I encountered difficulty while finding the simple probability are the

following (if there are any):

TEACHER RESOURCE SHEET 5: RUBRIC FOR JOURNAL

Scale Score

CRITERIA

Reflection Grammar Concepts/Topics _Discussed Technical/Writing Skill Organization of Ideas

Excellent 5 Learning is fully reflected and relating to many real-life situations or daily encounters.

No single grammatical error

committed. All concepts are discussed clearly and in detail. Observe writing standards with no erasures and neat Ideas presented in an organized and convincing approach

Very

Satisfactory 4

Learning is fully reflected and relating to few real-life situations or daily

encounters.

One or two grammatical

errors committed. All concepts are discussed clearly but not in detail. Observe writing standards with one or two erasures but neat

Ideas presented in an organized but not convincing

Satisfactory 3 Learning is quite reflected and relating to few real-life situations or daily

encounters.

More than two but less than six grammatical errors committed.

One or two concepts are not

discussed . Observe writing standards with more than two erasures but less than ten and quite neat

Ideas presented are poorly organized and not

convincing

Fair 2 Learning is poorly reflected and relating to only one real-life situation or daily encounter

More than six grammatical

errors committed. More than two concepts are not discussed. Poorly observe writing standards with more than ten erasures and not neat

Ideas presented are very poorly organized and not convincing

Needs

Improvement 1

Learning is not reflected. Intolerable grammatical

errors committed. Only one or two concepts are discussed but not clear and not in detail OR no discussion at all.

Does not observe writing standards with more than ten erasures and not neat.

Ideas presented are totally disorganized and not convincing.

For the Teacher:

Translate the information in this Learning Guide into the following matrix to help you prepare your lesson plans.

Stage

_1.

Activating Prior Learning

2.

Setting the

Context

3.

Learning

Activity Sequence

4.

Check for

Understanding

5.

Practice and

Application

6.

Closure

Strategies

Activities from the Learning Guide

Extra activities you may wish to include

Materials and planning needed

Estimated time for this Stage