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saturations of the colours, but we still recommend these second to darkest ones
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Forget about estimation!
May 13th 2014
Jesper Boeg, Process Development Lead, Creuna
Owner, www.AgileUpgrade.com
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2
VP –
Trifo
rk Ag
ile Ex
celle
nce
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Agenda
1
What not to do
2
How estimates really work
3
The simple alternative
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Kort om Creuna
Type
Nyere bureautype.
Digitalt udspring.
Full-service.
Størrelse
Alder
340+ ansatte. 7 kontorer i alle 4
nordiske lande. Største bureau
af vores art i Norden.
Ca. 90 i Danmark.
Født digital i 2001.
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Click Increase Indent button to get predefined ‘quote-name’ font
Creuna helps clients build brands,
grow business and harness change
in the connected world.
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Forretning, design og teknologi – under ét tag.
Communication
Technology
Business
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Vores kompetencer
© Creuna
St
Strategy
services
Ic
Ideation &
concepts
Ux
User
Experience
Bd
Branding
& Design
Ct
Content
production
Sd
System
development
Ia
Insights &
Analytics
Pm
Project
management
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Du finder os her
Aarhus
Helsinki
Helsingborg
Oslo
Gøteborg
Stockholm
Stavanger
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Darker colours You’re basically free to use the different saturations of the colours, but we still recommend these second to darkest ones Change background colour 1. Click on slide 2. Choose Format Background 3. Select Fill and choose your colour and click OK
Vores kunder
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Why estimate?
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Our five basic colours Yellow, Blue, Red, Green and Grey These are the colours we use for backgrounds Change background colour 1. Click on slide 2. Choose Format Background 3. Select Fill and choose your colour 4. Click OK
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2 User Stories, 3 hours, 5 people
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Why do we make the same mistakes
again and again and again
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The blame game
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Why don’t we just ask the tech-lead?
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Using time
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Could I borrow two days of your
time for estimation?
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Tasks are not for planning and
reporting
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3. Select image and click OK Size of image=1500x844 px (2000x1126 px for even better quality)
How estimates
really work
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Estimates are a distribution
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http://
softwaredevelopmenttoday.blogspot
.co.uk/2012/01/story-points-considered-harmful-or-why.html
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#NoEstimates - problems
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Distribution with overlapping tails
Small
Medium
Large
Frequenc
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Variability pooling – the good news
© Creuna
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Variability pooling
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Our five basic colours Yellow, Blue, Red, Green and Grey These are the colours we use for backgrounds Change background colour 1. Click on slide 2. Choose Format Background 3. Select Fill and choose your colour 4. Click OK
The simple
alternative
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T-shirt Sizes and story points
1
3
20
8
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•
New items in the backlog are estimated at the daily standup-meeting
•
ALL estimates are comparative and in story points
•
User Stories are ONLY re-estimated if they drastically change or are broken
down
•
All defects are assigned the same estimate (in our case XS) and only count if
they are found on functionality that has been more than 1 month in production
•
Completed points are based on features deployed to the production
environment (or similar)
Point -> $ is based on data (as soon as it becomes available)
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Roughly 0.4 percent is spent on
estimation – that is 1/250
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New team on a new project IS
di
ff
erent
Gut feeling
Comparison with
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If you need estimates to push
team-performance
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Our five basic colours Yellow, Blue, Red, Green and Grey These are the colours we use for backgrounds Change background colour 1. Click on slide 2. Choose Format Background 3. Select Fill and choose your colour 4. Click OK
Tracking and
reporting
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Predictability
Backlog Specification Sprint Ready Sprint Backlog Develop-ment Test Demo QA Prod Accepted
44
Easy from here
Too many focus here
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Velocity is the easiest metric to
game
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CFD
46
WIP
Cycle Time
Arrival Rate
Velocity
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Choose among many Layouts Right-click on slide and select Layout
Data beats detail
© Creuna
DKK 4500
DKK 5875
DKK 3250
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Improvement
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Probabilistic forecasting
F
requenc
y
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Don’t forget the vision
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•
Don’t use estimates for blame games and don’t expect the team to know
•
Estimates are a distribution – NOT a single number
•
#NoEstimates is an interesting movement but with a narrow focus on
predictability
•
Story Points and T-shirt sizes can make it much easier to acknowledge
uncertainty
•
Data beats detail every time!
•
Don’t make output velocity goals. Velocity is far too easy to game and you will