Sustainable cities
– from Masdar City to ”Our City” of Carlsberg
29. september 2009
Lise-Lotte Pade, Pöyry
y y
Agenda
•
Background and Challanges
•
Around the world
•
Pöyry Projects
•
Conclusions
Population development and the cities
•
World population today: 6,7 bill.
World population; 1980-2050
8 000 000 9.000.000 10.000.000
•
World population in 2050: 9,2 bill.
•
In 30 years, 80% of the world’s urban
4 000 000 5.000.000 6.000.000 7.000.000 8.000.000 1000 pers. Oceania Northern America Latin America and the Caribbean EuropeAsia Af i
y
,
population will live in developing
countries
0 1.000.000 2.000.000 3.000.000 4.000.000 Africa•
In 30 years, 70% of the world’s
population will live in cities
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
•
In 2015 there will be 22 megacities, each
with more than 10 mill. inhabitants
Ch ll
Cit
l
i
ill b
•
Challenge: City planning will be
decisive for the energy consumption
and environmental impact in the
future
future
Changes in energy consumption and investments in the energy sector
Source: WEC B scenario, IIASA 2002
•
Industrial countries’ share of the world’s
energy consumption is today 65%. In 2050
it will only be 40%
500 600 700
36 % af total
•
In 2050, Asia is expected to be responsible
for 36% of the world’s primary energy
consumption
300 400 S am le t en er g if o rb ru g i E JAfrika & Mellemøsten Asien
Latinamerika
18% af total
•
Fast growing economies demand very large
investments
0 100 200
S
Europa & det tidligere Sovjetunion
Nordamerika & oversøisk OECD
•
Energy consumption in households, and
business and public buildings is account for
35% of the world’s energy consumption
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
75 90
Asien
Mellemøsten + Afrika
35% of the world s energy consumption
•
Need to get focus on energy saving
potentials and development of new
45 60 lione r U S $ Mellemøsten Afrika Oversøiske lande Latinamerika Tidligere Sovjetunion Eropa Nordamerikaproducts
•
Challenge: Getting technologies on to
the market
15 30 bil October 29, 2009the market
0 1990-2020 2020-2050 2050-2100Changes in electricity production og fuel composition
Source: IEA International Energy Outlook 2007, reference case; IEA Energy Statistics 2005
•
Almost 40% of the world’s CO
2
-emissions
come from electricity and heat sectors
25 30
Kul 85%
•
Electricity demand is expected to increase
with 85% untill 2030
15 20 T u si n d e T W h Kul Naturgas•
Under BAU, energy related CO
2
-emissions
are expected to rise with another 60%
before 2030
5 10 Oile g A-kraft Vedvarende energi•
Challenge: Focusing on energy
efficiency (old and new buildings)
0
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Oile
•
Limit the use of fossil fuels, use more
RE, and improve production efficiency
7% 26% 55% Transport Andet Opvarmning
•
New technologies: CCS, fuel cells,
fusion energy, IV generation nuclear
power, biomass, wind energy, solar
35% 32% 19% 19% Industri Bygninger Varmt vand Elektriske apparater Lys og madlavning 7%
The transport of the future
Source: Resources For The Future, www.rff.org; IEA, World Energy Outlook, 2006
•
The future growth in the world’s vehicle
stock will primary take place in
developing countries
•
Necessary to meet the rising transport
d
ith
t i
i
i
i
ith
needs without increasing emissions with
the same amount
•
Energy consumption and CO emissions
•
Energy consumption and CO
2
-emissions
in the transport sector are expected to
rise with 50-60% until 2030
3000 3500 7000 8000 9000 Luftfart Andet Vejtransport CO2
•
Challenges: Efficiency improvement
in motors, alternative fuels, more
flexible transport systems, more
15002000 2500 g i forbrug, Mtoe 4000 5000 6000 7000 m issio n er , Mio to n
awareness about transportation in
relation to society planning,
re-thinking of the role of public
transport efficient traffic planning
500 1000 1500 Ener g 1000 2000 3000 CO 2 e m October 29, 2009
transport, efficient traffic planning
0
2004 2015 2030
År
Agenda
•
Background and Challanges
•
Around the world
•
Pöyry Projects
Masdar City
Sources: http://www.fosterandpartners.com/Projects/1515/Default.aspx,
http://www.masdaruae.com/index.aspx
•
Carbon- and waste-neutral city
•
Located in the desert, uses solar power
p
and wind energy
•
First phase: Solar power station
generating electricity for the rest of the
t
ti
construction
•
No cars
•
Easily accessible public transport
Dongtan eco-city
Sources: http://www.dongtan.biz/english/zhdt/plan06.php, http://www.dongtan.biz/english/zhdt/plan05.php,
http://www.popsci.com/environment/gallery/2007-07/dongtan-city.
•
First purpose-built eco-city
•
Designed for sustainability
Designed for sustainability
•
64% lower energy use
•
Environmentally firendly transport og
infrastructure green buildings
infrastructure, green buildings,
recycling of waste to energy, wind
energy, protection against flooding
Phase I complete in 2010
Hammarby Sjöstad
Sources: http://www.stockholm.se/Extern/Templates/PageWide.aspx?id=191251,
http://www.hammarbysjostad.se/
•
Old industrial area
•
Sustainable city
•
Fast and efficient public transport shared cars
Fast and efficient public transport, shared cars,
bicycle tracks
•
Environmentally adjusted building materials
•
Renewable energy, recycling of waste heat, biogas
gy
y
g
g
•
90% of household waste will be recycled for energy
generation
•
Water saving and purification of waste water
Agenda
•
Background and Challanges
•
Around the world
•
Pöyry Projects
Pöyry projects
Miljø Energi Vand ØkonomiRating tool
Fredericia C
Social/sundhed Økonomi Transport Affald Fysiske rammer Socialt liv og byliv Sundhed Mangfoldighed Energi 3 4 5 Fysiske rammer Vand Transport Affald 0 1 2Socialt liv og byliv
Sundhed
Mangfoldighed
Carlsberg’s ”Our City”
Køge Kyst
Amager Fælled Neighbourhood
Pöyry projects
Rating tool
Miljø Energi Vand ØkonomiRating tool
Transport Affald Sundhed Mangfoldighed Social/sundhedØkonomi Socialt liv og byliv Fysiske rammer
Energi 2 3 4 5 Fysiske rammer Vand Affald 0 1 2
Socialt liv og byliv Mangfoldighed
Pöyry projects – rating tool
•
Proces tool
–
evaluating and adjusting
Energy
Building
g
j
g
sustainability in urban development
projects
–
identify where and how to focus on
Transport
Water
Waster
Urban life
Health
Diversity
sustainability
•
Three sustainability
dimensions
Environment
Social/health
y
–
Eight
elements
representing the
dimensions
•
For each element a number of
i di
t
d
ib
t
Economy
indicators
describe sust.
•
Review/grade each element with
Economy
Energy
Transport
Buildings
Urban life
point of departure in the indicators
–
sustainability profile
Transport
Water
Waste
Urban life
Health
Diversity
October 29, 2009Pöyry projects
Fredericia C
Køge Kyst
Køge Kyst
Pöyry projects – Fredericia C and Køge Kyst
•
Sustainability experts
•
Competition Brief
specify sustainability in urban development
–
specify sustainability in urban development
•
three dimensions
–
environment, social/health, economy
i ht l
t
•
eight elements
–
energy, transport, water, waste, buildings, urban life, health, diversity
–
define targets – eg.
•
energy consumption, CO2-neutrality, water consumption, sports facilities,
cultural facilities
•
Review proposals
Pöyry projects
A
F ll d N i hb
h
d
Pöyry projects – Amager Fælled Neighbourhood
•
CO2-neutral and sustainable neighbourhood
–
means to reduce CO2-emissions
–
means to reduce CO2-emissions
•
energy (electricity and heat), transport, water consumption, waste
management, planning, behaviour
reduce CO2-emissions by 65 percent compared to business as usual
–
reduce CO2-emissions by 65 percent compared to business as usual
14000 16000 18000 14000 16000 18000 8000 10000 12000 Emissionskoefficient, varme Emissionskoefficient, el Adfærd Transport Affald Vand Varme El, byg El hus erhverv 8000 10000 12000 Transport Affald Vand Varme El, bygningsdrift El, erhverv 2000 4000 6000
El, hus, erhverv El, hus bolig Footprint 0 2000 4000 6000 El, bolig October 29, 2009 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Pöyry projects
Pöyry projects – Our City – CO2-neutral City
•
Optimisation of CO
2
-neutrality
•
energy standard
energy standard
•
energy production
•
off shore wind mill farms
•
green electricity
green electricity
Agenda
•
Background and Challanges
•
Around the world
•
Pöyry Projects
Conclusions
•
Lots of things going on
–
In Denmark as well as abroad
–
In Denmark as well as abroad
•
more is needed
•
Based on known technologies
–
No man on Mars
•
but is it still too expensive?
p
•
Need for further specification of sustainable urban development
–
Open discussion of definitions
•
Is it possible to make clear definitions?
•
Dynamic process
Nansensgade 19 6th floor
Copenhagen
Nansensgade 19, 6th floor
DK-1366 COPENHAGEN Denmark
Telephone: +45 33 91 40 45
Fax: +45 33 91 40 46
e mail: copenhagen ecdk@poyry com
e-mail: copenhagen.ecdk@poyry.com
