A Global Forecast

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2052 2052 2052 - A Global Forecast 2052 - A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years for the Next Forty Years

J R d

Jorgen Randers Professor Center for Climate Strategygy Norwegian Business School BI Pioneers of Energy Transition Conference

NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL

J Randers 1 J Randers 1

Pioneers of Energy Transition - Conference Vienna, Austria October 10^th, 2012

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12 scenarios for the 21^st century

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Limits Scenario 1: Resource crisis

3: Industrial output

1 2 3 1

5

5: Nonrenewable resources

2: Food

4 5

2: Food output

1

2

2 3

4

5

1: Population

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

0

2

3 3

4 4 4

5

Year

4: Pollution level

J Randers 3

Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 30 year update, 2004

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Limits Scenario 9: Sustainability

5 5

5: Nonrenewable resources 5

1 2

3

3: Industrial output

1

1 2

5

2: Food 5

4

2: Food 5

output

1

1 2

3

1: Population 4

4: Pollution level

1900 1950 2000 2050 Year 2100

0

2 3

4

4 4

NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 30 year update, 2004

900 950 000 050 ea 00

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Limits to Growth: A small and fragile world

J Randers 5

Source: KPMG, 2010

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Overshoot: Emissions is twice absorption

NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Source: Global Carbon Project, Carbon Budget 2009

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For all numerical data and the forecast model,

consult consult

the book website www.2052.info

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The five regions used in the 2052 forecast

Region Population GDP GDP per person

2010 (billion

2010 (trillion

2010 (1000

people) $ pr year) $ pr person-year)

US 0,3 13 41

China 1 3 10 7

China 1,3 10 7

OECD-less-US (1) 0,7 22 30

BRISE (2)( ) 2,4 14 6

ROW (3) 2,1 8 4

Sum world 6,9 67 10

(1) Old industrial world, including EU, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand etc (2) Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and the ten biggest emerging economies (3) The remaining ca 140 countries of the world

NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012

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World population will peak in 2040

% / yr Gpersons

5,0 10

Population

( l )

% / yr Gpersons

4,0

8 (←scale)

3,0 6

2,0

4 Birth rate

(scale →)

1,0 2

Death rate

g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 1

Figure 4-1 Population – World 1970 to 2050

0,0 0

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

J Randers 9

Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012

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10,000$ / person-yr

G$ / yr Gp

World GDP growth will slow down

6,0

150 6.0

4,8 120

W ld GDP Population

aged 15 to 65 (scale → →)

4.8

3,6

90 World GDP

(←scale)

( )

3.6

2,4 60

Gross labor productivity

2.4

1,2

30 productivity

(scale →)

g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 3a

1.2

0,0 0

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

g p

0.0 Figure 4-3b: Gross Domestic product – World 1970 to 2050

Definition: GDP = Population aged 15 to 65 years multiplied with Gross labour productivity

p g y p p y

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Share of GDP in investment will grow

G$ / yr

%

150 40

World GDP

( l )

G$ / yr

%

120

32 (scale →)

Investment share in GDP

90 24 (←scale)

Consumption

60

16 Consumption

(scale →)

30 8

Figure 4-4: Production and Consumption – World 1970 to 2050

0 0

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

J Randers 11

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Energy use will peak in 2040

G$

300 20

World

toe / M$

Gtoe / yr

G$

/ yr 300

240 16

energy use (←scale) Energy intensity

= Energy use

240

180 12

= Energy use per unit of GDP

(scale →) ¹⁸⁰

120 8

World GDP (scale →→)

120

60 4

(scale )

60

Figure 5-1: Energy Use – World 1970 to 2050

0 0

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

0

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Fossil fuels will prevail

Gtoe / yr 6,5

y

5,2 Coal use

3,9 Oil use

2,6

Gas use

1,3

N l

Renewable energy use

Figure 5-2: Energy Uses – World 1970 to 2052 0,0

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Nuclear use

J Randers 13

Figure 5 2: Energy Uses World 1970 to 2052

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World CO

₂

emissions will peak in 2030

tCO2 / toe

GtCO2 / yr Gtoe/yr

5 50

CO2 emissions

tCO2 / toe

GtCO2 / yr Gtoe/yr

25

4

40 Climate intensity (←scale)

= CO2 per unit of energy

( l )

20

3

30 (scale →) ₁₅

2 20

Energy use (scale →→)

10

1

10 (scale →→)

5

Figure 5-3: CO2 Emissions from Energy Use – World 1970 to 2050

0 0

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

0

g p

Figure 5 3: CO2 Emissions from Energy Use World 1970 to 2050.

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Temperature and sea-level will rise

deg C

ppm m

2,5 500

deg C

ppm m

1.5

2,0 400 CO2 in atmosphere

(←scale)

Temperature rise (scale →)

1.2

1,5 300

(scale )

0.9

1,0 200

Sea level rise (scale →→)

0.6

0,5

100 0.3

Figure 5-4: Climate Change – World 1970 to 2050

0,0 0

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

0

g p

J Randers 15

g g

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Average disposable income – 1970 to 2050

40.000

(in 2005 PPP $ per person-year)

WORLD

30.000 35.000

BRISE

China 25.000

China

OECD less US

15.000

20.000 USA

RoW Residual

5.000 10.000

Residual

0

1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

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Democratic decision making takes time

J Randers 17

COP 15 meeting in December 2009

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What should be done? – Globally

1 Sl l ti th H f

1. Slow population growth: Have fewer children, particularly in the rich world

2. Reduce the footprint: Eliminate fossil fuels first in the rich world

fuels, first in the rich world

3. Help the poor: Build a climate-friendly 3. Help the poor: Build a climate friendly

energy system in the poor world

4. Temper short-termism: Establish supra- national institutions

5. Establish new goals: Increase societal wellbeing in a world without growth

wellbeing in a world without growth

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What should be done? – Pioneer regions

1. Be in favour of small families and optimal degree of centralisation

2. Increase energy efficiency (GDP/energy) and fraction renewable energy (GDP/CO2)

3. Focus on climate-friendly transport, housing and air travel – individually or collectively

4. Remember this is primarily a political

challenge: To make voters support wise policy even if expensive in the short term

J Randers 19

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I don’t like what I see!

NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL [email protected] www.2052.info