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Daily FX Focus. 31-Dec-2014

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Daily FX Focus

31-Dec-2014

FX Pick:AUD/USD

AUD

BEARISH

Market Highlights and Technical Analysis

31-Dec vs SGD 1.0810 vs USD 0.8180

Daily change: 0.52%

Support*: 1.0630 vs USD 0.8052

Resistance*: 1.0970 vs USD 0.8343

(~) RBA kept its interest rate unchanged in Dec at 2.5%, in line with market expectation (~) Australia Q3 CPI rose 2.3% YoY, as expected, in line with market expectation (+) Australia employment increased by 42.7k in Nov, better than market expectation (-) Australia Q3 GDP rose 2.7% YoY, worse than market expectation

USD/SGD

BULLISH

USD/SGD was hovering in a range of 1.3210-1.3262. The market is waiting for Friday’s GDP data.

Australia Nov private sector credit rose 5.9% YoY, as expected. AUD/USD was consolidating in a range of 0.8122-0.8203 levels. AUD/USD’s short-term support is at 0.8070, and resistance is at 0.8200.

USD/JPY

BEARISH

JPY was supported by pre-holiday’s profit taking positions. USD/JPY once retraced to 118.87 level. USD/JPY's short-term support level is at 115.57 and resistance at 122.

USD/CHF

BULLISH

USD/CAD

BEARISH

USD/CAD once rose to 1.1651 as oil prices continued to fall. The market is waiting for Friday’s manufacturing PMI data. USD/CAD's support level is at 1.15 and resistance level is at 1.1725.

NZD/USD

NEUTRAL

NZD was supported by lowered US bond yields. NZD/USD once rose to 0.7848 level. NZD/USD's short-term support level is at 0.7457 and resistance is at 0.7900.

USD/RMB

BULLISH

China Nov leading index arrived at 99.17, lower than last month. USD/CNH once rose to 6.2397 level. USD/CNH's short-term support is at 6.17, and the resistance level remains at 6.2397.

GBP/USD

BEARISH

UK Dec house price index rose 7.2% YoY, lower than last month. GBP/USD once dropped to 1.5501 level. GBP/USD’s short-term resistance is at 1.5620, and support is at 1.5430.

AUD/USD

BEARISH

Australia Nov private sector credit rose 5.9% YoY, as expected. AUD/USD was consolidating in a range of 0.8122-0.8203 levels. AUD/USD’s short-term support is at 0.8070, and resistance is at 0.8200.

EUR/USD

BEARISH

EUR/USD was hovering in a range of 1.2122-1.2188 levels. The market is waiting for the release of Germany retail sales data. EUR/USD’s short-term resistance is at 1.2300, and support is at 1.2043.

Australia Nov private sector credit rose 5.9% YoY, as expected. AUD/USD was

consolidating in a range of 0.8122-0.8203 levels. AUD/USD’s short-term support is at

0.8070, and resistance is at 0.8200.

Currency

This Week

Comment

1.00 1.10 1.20

Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14

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Daily FX Focus

31-Dec-2014

EUR

BEARISH

Market Highlights and Technical Analysis

31-Dec vs SGD 1.6060 vs USD 1.2160

Daily change: -0.06%

Support*: 1.5940 vs USD 1.1996

Resistance*: 1.6290 vs USD 1.2443

GBP

BEARISH

Market Highlights and Technical Analysis

31-Dec vs SGD 2.0560 vs USD 1.5560

Daily change: 0.18%

Support*: 2.0370 vs USD 1.5432

Resistance*: 2.0700 vs USD 1.5733

NZD

NEUTRAL

Market Highlights and Technical Analysis

31-Dec vs SGD 1.0340 vs USD 0.7830

Daily change: 0.41%

Support*: 1.0140 vs USD 0.7714

Resistance*: 1.0460 vs USD 0.7905

(~) RBNZ kept interest rate unchanged at 3.5% in Dec (-) New Zealand Q3 CPI rose 1% YoY, below market expectations

(-) New Zealand Oct trade deficit was NZD 908 million, worse than expected (+) New Zealand Q3 GDP(S.A) rose 1% QoQ, better than expected

NZD was supported by lowered US bond yields. NZD/USD once rose to 0.7848 level. NZD/USD's short-term support level is at 0.7457 and resistance is at 0.7900.

(-) UK Q3 GDP rose 2.6% YoY, worse than expectation (-) UK Nov CPI rose 1% YoY, worse than expectation

(~) Bank of England kept its monetary policy unchanged in Dec

(-) UK Oct 3-month unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6%, worse than market expectations

UK Dec house price index rose 7.2% YoY, lower than last month. GBP/USD once dropped to 1.5501 level. GBP/USD’s short-term resistance is at 1.5620, and support is at 1.5430.

(+) Eurozone 3Q GDP (Seasonally Adjusted) rose 0.2% QoQ, better than expected (~) Eurozone Nov CPI final reading came in at 0.3% YoY, in line with market expectation (+) Germany Nov unemployment rate arrived at 6.6%, better than expected

(+) Eurozone Dec manufacturing PMI arrived at 50.8, better than expected

EUR/USD was hovering in a range of 1.2122-1.2188 levels. The market is waiting for the release of Germany retail sales data. EUR/USD’s short-term resistance is at 1.2300, and support is at 1.2043.

0.90 1.00 1.10 1.20

Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14

NZD/SGD 6-month

1.90 2.00 2.10 2.20

Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14

GBP/SGD 6-month

1.50 1.60 1.70 1.80

Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14

(3)

Daily FX Focus

31-Dec-2014

RMB

BEARISH

Market Highlights and Technical Analysis

31-Dec vs SGD 0.2130 vs USD 6.2020

Daily change: 0.24%

Support*: 0.2110 vs USD 6.1683

Resistance*: 0.2140 vs USD 6.2344

CAD

BEARISH

Market Highlights and Technical Analysis

31-Dec vs SGD 1.1380 vs USD 1.1610

Daily change: 0.10%

Support*: 1.1200 vs USD 1.1478

Resistance*: 1.1510 vs USD 1.1707

JPY

BEARISH

Market Highlights and Technical Analysis

31-Dec vs SGD 1.1060 vs USD 119.5000

Daily change: 0.89%

Support*: 1.0910 vs USD 116.4067

Resistance*: 1.1230 vs USD 121.6667

(+) Japan Dec Manufacturing PMI flash reading arrived at 52.1, better than last month

(~) Japan Nov nationwide CPI ex fresh food (VAT included) arrived at 2.7% YoY, in line with market expectation

(-) Japan Nov industrial production dropped 0.6% MoM, worse than market expectation (-) Japan Q3 annualised GDP fell by 1.9%, worse than market expectation

(+) Canada Q3 annualised GDP rose 2.3%, better than expected (-) Canada Nov CPI rose 2% YoY, lower than market expectation

(~) Canada Nov unemployment rate was 6.6%, in line with market expectation (+) Canada Oct retail sales held steady MoM, better than expected

JPY was supported by pre-holiday’s profit taking positions. USD/JPY once retraced to 118.87 level. USD/JPY's short-term support level is at 115.57 and resistance at 122.

USD/CAD once rose to 1.1651 as oil prices continued to fall. The market is waiting for Friday’s manufacturing PMI data. USD/CAD's support level is at 1.15 and resistance level is at 1.1725. (-) China Nov industrial production rose 7.2% YoY, lower than expected

(-) HSBC China Manufacturing PMI flash reading for Dec arrived at 49.5, worse than expected (+) China Q3 GDP rose 7.3% YoY, higher than expected

(+) China Nov exports rose 4.7% YoY, better than expected

China Nov leading index arrived at 99.17, lower than last month. USD/CNH once rose to 6.2397 level. USD/CNH's short-term support is at 6.17, and the resistance level remains at 6.2397.

1.05 1.10 1.15 1.20

Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14

CAD/SGD 6-month

1.00 1.20 1.40

Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14

JPY/SGD 6-month

0.19 0.20 0.21 0.22

Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14

(4)

Daily FX Focus

31-Dec-2014

CHF

BEARISH

Market Highlights and Technical Analysis

31-Dec vs SGD 1.3360 vs USD 0.9890

Daily change: -0.04%

Support*: 1.3250 vs USD 0.9653

Resistance*: 1.3550 vs USD 1.0021

SGD

BEARISH

Market Highlights and Technical Analysis

31-Dec vs USD 1.3210

Daily change: -0.11%

Support*: vs USD 1.3055

Resistance*: vs USD 1.3315

(-) Singapore Q3 unemployment rate arrived at 2% YoY, worse than expected (-) Singapore Nov industrail production dropped 2.8% YoY, worse than expected (+) Singapore Oct retail sales rose 8.1% YoY, better than market expectation (+) Singapore Q3 GDP final read up 2.8% YoY, better than market expectation

USD/SGD was hovering in a range of 1.3210-1.3262. The market is waiting for Friday’s GDP data. (~) Switzerland Nov CPI fell 0.1% YoY, in line with market expectation

(+) Switzerland Oct trade balance at 3.26B, higher than market expectation (-) SNB lowered interest rate to -0.25% in Dec, out of market expectation (~) Switzerland Oct unemployment rate at 3.1%, in line with market expectation

1.25 1.30 1.35 1.40 1.45

Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14

CHF/SGD 6-month 1.15 1.20 1.25 1.30 1.35

Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14

(5)

Daily FX Focus

31-Dec-2014

HSBC forecasts

5-Dec-14

Current rate Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 North America US 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25 0.25-0.5 Canada 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Asia-pacific Japan 0-0.10 0-0.10 0-0.10 0-0.10 0-0.10 0-0.10 Australia 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 New Zealand 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.75 Western Europe EMU 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 UK 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

*Support Levels are normally defined as where market participants see good value and start to push prices higher again. *Resistance Levels are normally regarded as a ceiling, as the price levels prevent the market from moving prices upward.

Please note that the indicative support and resistance level are given for general reference only. Customers should not rely on this information to buy or sell currency.

This information is only for a reference and does not represent recommendation from HSBC for customer to buy or sell based on the information provided. Customer should not rely on the views or information expressed in this document solely to make investment decisions. HSBC shall not be held liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. Customer should make his/her buy and sell decision based on his/her own view. Also, past performance is not indicative of future performance.

^ Time deposit rates are for reference only and quoted as of 31-12-2014. RMB and exchange rate offers are available at any HSBC branches and through 24-hour manned phonebanking services only. Terms and Conditions apply.

Risk Disclosure:

Currency conversion risk – the value of your RMB deposit will be subject to the risk of exchange rate fluctuation. If you choose to convert your RMB deposit to other currencies at an exchange rate that is less favorable than the exchange rate in which you made your original conversion to RMB, you may suffer loss in principal. RMB is currently not freely convertible and subject to regulatory restrictions.

This document is issued by The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited (HSBC). The information contained herein is derived from sources we believe to be reliable, but which we have not independently verified. HSBC makes no representation or warranty (express or implied) of any nature nor is any responsibility of any kind accepted with respect to the completeness or accuracy of any information, projection, representation or warranty (expressed or implied) in, or omission from, this document. No liability is accepted whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from the use of this document. Any examples given are

for the purposes of illustration only. The opinions in this document constitute our present judgement, which is subject to change without notice. The document is intended to be distributed in its entirety. Copyright. The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited 2012. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, on any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited.

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