• No results found

Energia ª parte. António Costa e Silva Presidente da Comissão Executiva do Grupo Partex Oil and Gas

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2021

Share "Energia ª parte. António Costa e Silva Presidente da Comissão Executiva do Grupo Partex Oil and Gas"

Copied!
26
0
0

Loading.... (view fulltext now)

Full text

(1)

Energia 2030 – 1ª parte

António Costa e Silva

(2)

1. AS MUDANÇAS ESTRATÉGICAS e

ESTRUTURAIS nos MERCADOS da ENERGIA

2. UMA VISÃO para o FUTURO: ENERGIA 2030

APREN

António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva

(3)

1.

AS MUDANÇAS ESTRATÉGICAS e

ESTRUTURAIS nos MERCADOS da ENERGIA

APREN

António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva

(4)

APREN

António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva

(5)

THE AGE OF OIL

STAGNATION/DECLIN

E?

•Oil share in world energy

matrix 39% in 2002 vs.

32% in 2014

RISE of GAS and COAL

•Gas will succeed oil in the

dominance of world energy

matrix?

INVESTMENTS and OIL PRICE

•In spite of duplication of

investment last decade and 4

times increase in oil price, oil

world supply increased just

2 to 3%

5 3 Dezembro 2015

Demand for global electricity

in the world much ahead of oil

•Next 2 to 3 decades world

electricity demand may double the

oil demand

TREND for ELECTRIFICATION

•Growing urbanization, new

technologies and change in

habits may lead to a growing

electrification of energy matrix

Western culture focused on

oil voracity may be replaced

by:

More electric cars

More natural gas

More biofuels

APREN

António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva

(6)

APREN

António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva

(7)

3 Dezembro 2015 7

UNCONVENTIONAL

GAS

INSTABILITY in PRODUCING COUNTRIES and THREATS

to SUPPLY

FUKUSHIMA NUCLEAR ACCIDENT

CLIMATE CHANGE and ENVIRONMENTAL REVOLUTION EMERGENCE of PACIFIC

BASIN as TOP ENERGY CONSUMER INDUSTRY CATASTROPHIC ACCIDENTS (e.g. OFFSHORE OIL

Spills) and PUBLIC IMAGE

ENERGY GAME CHANGERS

in XXI CENTURY

APREN

António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva

(8)

WORLD TOTAL GAS RESERVES

APREN

António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva

(9)

3 Dezembro 2015 9

APREN

António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão

Executiva

GAS

DRIVERS

DECARBONIZATION OF

ECONOMY

. Gas is the least poluent of

fossil fuels

. May play key role in transition

of energy paradigm

APPLICATIONS

. Gas is most versatile of fossil fuels

. Used both in power generation and

transportation

. GTL may be competitive solution

for transport in Medium Term

EFFECTS OF JAPAN NUCLEAR CRISIS

.

Decision of some countries to

slowdown nuclear power (Germany,

Italy, Japan)

.

Opens a more decisive role for Gas

D R I V E R S F O R F U R T H E R G A S D E V E L O P M E N T S D R I V E R S F O R F U R T H E R G A S D E V E L O P M E N T S

(10)

3 Dezembro 2015 10

Ciberterrorismo

•Ataques Sistema Informático Qatar Gas, Saudi Aramco e

NIOC

•Ataque a 15 de Agosto 2012 contra a Saudi Aramco paralisou

30 000 computadores

•Vírus Shamoon / Stuxnet / Flame

•“Novo Pear Harbour Cibernético?”

•Novas Dimensões da Guerra: o ESPAÇO DIGITAL

APREN

António Costa Silva –

Presidente da Comissão

Executiva

Consequências

Espécie de Lei de Moore acelerada para a informação

A informação passou da escassez à superabundância em pouco

tempo

A gestão da informação é crucial para o exercício da Engenharia

moderna

Transformar informação em conhecimento

Minas digitais e campos digitais de petróleo e gás

As implicações para a compreensão dos sistemas complexos e

para o processo

(11)

THE CLIMATIC THREAT

Concentration of CO

2

in atmosphere

before the Industrial Revolution: 280 ppm

Current concentration : 400 ppm

Projection at the end of the XXI Century:

560 ppm (“Business as usual”)

Increase of Earth temperature: 3 – 4 C

Instability of life on Earth

Citizenship Issue

- Mobilization

- Change of behaviour

- Global economy vs local governance

- Multilateral institutions

- Restructuring of world economy

CLIMATIC CHANGE

- Is an issue of Security

and survival

NEED BUILD a Low-Carbon

ECONOMY

- Till today action led to poor

results

- New Action Plans

Need of action focused on

polluter centers:

- Power stations

- Electricity System

- Transport System

Reduction of CO

2

Emissions

To be successful needs to be

linked to MARKET mechanisms

(12)

GROWTH

and

SUSTAINABILITY

MAJOR ROLE of GAS

•Increasing share of world energy matrix

•Shale Gas revolution and magnitude of reserves •Gas is most versatile of fossil fuels and least poluent

•Used both in power generation and transportation (GTL)

•“Gaseification” of economy

LNG and EFFECTS of JAPAN

NUCLEAR CRISIS

•Decision of some countries to slowdown nuclear power (Germany, Italy, Japan) •Open more decisive role for gas and specially LNG

OIL & GAS INDUSTRY PUBLIC IMAGE

• Recent record of catastrophic accidents does not help

•Need to improve risk management to address public concerns

•Industry engaged in environmental and emissions cutting technologies

•Better communication with the public •Better environmental regulations without jeopardizing expansion of required projects

Clean Technologies and

Reduction of CO2 Emissions

•Tolerance zero for Gas Flaring

•CO

2

sequestration and injection into

oil reservoirs (win-win approach)

• Control/reduction of VOC emissions

(surface facilities)

•Improve Market “design mechanisms” to

promote energy efficiency

LOW CARBON SOLUTIONS

•Buildings

•Electric/Thermal Generation

•Transportation systems

FOUR MAJOR TRENDS

CHANGING WORLD ENERGY

MATRIX

•Growing electrification

•Decarbonization

•Localization

•Optimization

ENERGY and WATER

MANAGEMENT

•Optimal use of local resources •Optimization of energy used in

oil/gas operations

•Efficiency and minimization of

environmental impact

•Solution of increased volumes of

water

•Bacterial Treatment •Re-utilization of water

12 3 Dezembro 2015

(13)

2.

UMA VISÃO para o FUTURO: ENERGIA 2030

APREN

António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva

(14)

14

ENERGY 2030

•A VISION of the 2030 WORLD from the MANY “POSSIBLE WORLDS” CONTAINED in TODAY’s REALITY •4 MAJOR TRENDS: - Electrification - Decarbonization - Optimization - Localization

CLIMATE CHANGE

• Decarbonization • Clean technologies • Role of China • Post-Paris • Strategic responses to low carbon agenda

TRANSPORTATION

• Penetration of gas in boats (LNG), trucks and taxi fleets (US)

• Growing share of electric cars

• Internal combustion engines fighting for survival

• Similar to telecommunications revolution • Self-driving cars with technologies of

information

POWER GENERATION

• Innovation and Emerging Technologies

• Distributed Generation

• Evolving power business models • New services on demand

response, supply, storage, energy efficiency

• Competition based on algorithms, sensors, processing power – the internet model

TECHNOLOGIES and RISKS

• Disruptive technologies on storage, intelligent consumption, energy efficiency

• Batteries

• Cyber and Energy Infrastructure Security • A New Face of Risks

MARKETS and

BUSINESS MODELS

• Globalization of gas market • Improve capital efficiency

• Capital markets and Energy Investment

RENEWABLES

• Growing share of world energy mix

• 5% in 2015 to 20/25% in 2050 • Solar costs reduced : 75% in 6

years

• Role of venture capital • Ocean power: “a hidden”

energy machine

WORLD ENERGY MATRIX

• More gas • More renewables • Less coal

GAS MARKET

• Ascension of gas • LNG as a driving force of gas market globalization • Gas less polluent of fossil

fuels

OIL MARKET

• Declining oil share

• Ability to reduce and control costs

• How to compete in a low oil price world

(15)

3 Dezembro 2015

15

ENERGY 2030

NEW BUSINESS MODELS

• Old Vertical Model of “Old

Utilities” under pressure • Smart consumption • No need of peak generation

capacity

DOWNSTREAM/REFINING

• Persistent supply growth despite

existing refining surpluses • Increasing share of Fuel Mix by

pass refining

• Only 55% of liquid fuels, in next 20 years, will come from refined

products

• Big challenges for the sector • Remaining 45% from NLG’s

(LPG/Natural Gas), Biofuels and CTL/GTL

BIG-DATA

• Increasing volumes, variety and velocity of data

• Key to economic success in XXI century

• Big Data will change cities in this century as electricity changed in

the XX century • Algorithms and Processing

Power may create the difference

TWO-SPEED WORLD

• 90% of all growth in energy demand

coming from non-OECD countries • OECD energy demand stagnation

or decline

VIRTUALIZATION/

/AUTOMATION

• Growing speed in the digital space • New threats

• Automation of facilities • Cyber attacks

TECHNOLOGY

DISRUPTION

• Storage: flow batteries

• Electric batteries • Internet of Energy • Smart consumption • Energy efficiency • Algorithms

CITIES

• 2% of surface • More 50% of population • 75% of energy consumption • 80% of emissions • New challenges

(16)

3 Dezembro 2015 16

FINANCE ENERGY FORUM

(17)

3 Dezembro 2015

17

Source: ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy

Electricity Demand

APREN

António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva

(18)

18

THE NEED of a PARADIGM

SHIFT for WORLD CITIES

• Cities occupy 2% of planet surface

• 50% of world population

• Consume 75% of energy produced

• Responsible for 80% of CO

2

emissions

CITIES with CURRENT

LANDSCAPE IMPLY HUGE

RISKS

•Frenetic urban growth

•Difficulties in resources management

•Drivers of atmospheric pollution

•“Heat-Islands”

•Negative impact on earth climatic

system

•Key issue: transport system

CITIES are BEST INVENTION of

MAN

•Mark death of distance

•Rotating platform for markets and

cultures

•Connect human capital

•Cities are main drivers of innovation

NEW MODEL for CITIES

• Water management

• Energy management

• Residuals treatment

• New role of transport system based on

public transport + electric cars +

evaporation of traffic jams

• New modes of access and distribution of

resources

CHALLENGES for FUTURE CITIES

•More sustainable models

•Address energy security

•Smart grids

•New model for mobility

•There is no sustainability for future

without a new vision for the

development of more intelligent

cities

•Sustainability is a multidimensional

concept and needs to question the

excess of the constant growth logic

and fight the waste of resources

(19)

19 3 Dezembro 2015

APREN

António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão

Executiva

ELECTRICAL AND THERMAL

GENERATION

.

Sequestration and storage of CO2:

- Post-Combustion

- Pre-Combustion

- Oxy-Fuel

. Electricity 30% plus expensive

"CLEAN COAL" FutureGen (USA):

1

st

Integrated Central

- Electricity Production

+ Hydrogen with CO2 sequestration

. Coal Gasification: Conversion in gas

(H + OC)

. Hydrogen Production

. Renewables: Wind / Solar / Waves/

Geothermal / Biomass/

Nuclear Energy: 3rd and 4th Generation

BUILDINGS

. Lighting 20% of world electricity . LED / SSL . Buildings: context . Energetic Performance . "Zero-Energy Homes" - Micro-generation

NANOTECHNOLOGIES

. Production / Storage of Energy

. Energy Efficiency

. New techniques to process

hydrocarbons

Emerging Technologies:

Decarbonisation Economy

. Energy Efficiency

. Economic Competitiveness

. Security

. Environmental Sustainability

TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS

. Batteries and plug-in cars . Electric vehicles

. Advanced biofuels . Natural gas vehicles . Evolving smart grids

. Advances in internal combustion . Increasing fuel efficiency . Advanced diesels . New lighter materials . Chemical Propulsion: - Space Industry

“SMART GRIDS”

. Producer / Consumer

. Decentralized and distributed

networks

(20)

3 Dezembro 2015 20

• Send high voltages over long-

-distances to passive

customers

• Main concerns: supply

electricity and meet peaks in

demand

• Vertical Integrated

• Big

• Centralized

• Regulated

• High Costs

• Deal with the most inefficient

part of the power industry:

the generating capacity that

is held in reserves to meet

Peak Demand

• Old Business Model of

delivering through the grid

over long-distances is in

retreat

• Need to take a long view

• Model under pressure: new

entrants and new forms of

STORAGE and GENERATION

are “eating” the OLD

Business Model

• Analogy to computing

industry: switch from main

frames and terminals to

CLOUD STORAGE and the

Internet

• Need to do new things and

respond to COMPETITION

NEW ENERGY LANDSCAPE

•Era of abundance in Energy

•Revolution of shale gas and

shale oil

•Abundant gas reserves (2 to 3 x

conventional)

•Renewables playing an

increasing role

•Solar energy impressive cost

reduction (75% decline last 6

years)

•The “Hawaii” core example

•Technological breakthroughs in

Storage, Energy Efficiency,

Management of Demand,

Intelligent Consumption

•The revolution of “NegaWatts”:

the unused electricity

•Clever technology with

increased efficiency is shaping

the future

•Capital markets more tilted in

financing solar, storage, energy

efficiency

•Costs of pollution:

“decarbonisation”

•Demand for energy: increase

37% over next 25 years

(“Internet of the Things” ; new

devices to be connected)

Services provided:

•Demand response

•Supply

•Storage

•Energy efficiency

•Algorithms

•Sensors

•Processing power

•Good Marketing

•Cheaper power + better storage +

increased resilience: shape the grid

of the future

•Transmission costs for electricity are

declining

•Energy efficiency + Renewables +

shale gas provide abundance of

energy, accessible with new

technologies

•More effective management of

supply and demand: sensors,

computer power and algorithms

•Pressure and changes on Business

Models: Management of demand

response; microgrids; “Prosumers”

•Storage business is booming: biggest

advantage avoids need of generating

capacity held in reserves to meet

peak demand

•1 Mw of storage replaces 10 Mw of

such generating capacity

•Batteries approaching crucial

benchmark: cost of storage 100

US$/Kwh

P

RE

SE

NT

/FUTURE

New Entrants

PAS

T/PRE

SENT

Competitive Advantages

(the Internet Model”

Traditional Utilities

(21)

TRANSPORTATION FUELS TO SEE RISING DEMAND

APREN

António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva

(22)

Natural Gas

Corn

Crude Oil

Ethanol

Gasoline

Diesel

Internal

Combustion

Engine

TURN

WHEELS

Electricity

Motor

Wind

Water

Uranium

Nuclear

(Power)

Electricity

Hydrogen

Battery

Fuel Cell

Air

(Oxygen)

Energy Road Map and Solutions:

Many Possible Paths Leading to Same “Destination””

APREN

António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva

(23)

3 Dezembro 2015 23

APREN

António Costa Silva –

Presidente da Comissão

Executiva

RISE OF THE AUTOMOTIVE PATENT TECH WARS

APREN

António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva

(24)

3 Dezembro 2015 24

ENERGY

COMPANIES in

the FUTURE

ADDRESS FINANCIAL and REGULATORY RISKS

• Carbon price uncertainty

• Increasing legislation and standards on

emissions

• Consumer pressure for CO2 emissions reduction

• Government policies on energy pricing

• Impact of pricing fluctuations on investment

decisions

• Renewal energy policy uncertainty

REPUTATIONAL RISKS

• Environment pollution and liabilities

• Delivery of services compromised by energy

disruptions

• Increasing control on emissions performance

standards

• Cost and stability of services

TECHNOLOGICAL RISKS

•Uncertain political commitment to

technological incentives

•Policy change undermining the

viability of investment

•New technology revolution may

change all aspects of energy

services from sources to storage

•Impact on user-technologies

(light/vehicles/electric motors)

•Impact on investment structure

OPERATIONAL and

SUPPLY CHAIN RISKS

•Future demand uncertainties

•Fuel and electricity supply

disruptions

•Infrastructure failure in

changing

climatic conditions

•Transition to cleaner

technologies

making infrastructure

obsolete

(25)

OBRIGADO

António Costa e Silva

Presidente da Comissão Executiva do Grupo Partex Oil and Gas

CONFERÊNCIA da APREN

(26)

References

Related documents

Respondents from ‘very vulnerable’ households were less likely to report satisfaction with the government sewage service, taking into account province, compared with those from

Why Do Teachers Design Courses to Integrate Language and Content? Reflecting on the genesis of a particular course, each author in this section shares the rationale for using

The director of the mentoring program recruits mentors at community meetings, by meeting with people who have expressed an interest in helping One Hope United and who seem

purposes, social language and the content of interactions, the communicative approach, the patterns of discourse, and the teacher interventions – helped to characterize the

QuickSpecs HP EliteDesk 800 G1 Series Business Desktop Technical Specifications – Core vPro Processors.. NOTE 3: Technical telephone support applies only to HP-configured

The epigenetics controlling the alteration in gene expression which influence on many different human cardiac, hepatic and renal diseases. Epigenetics helps to explain

Contingency management for alcohol dependence Treatment • Contingency Management Treatment Ingredient • Abstinence- contingent Reinforcers • Frequency • Immediacy of

benthamiana leaves expressing HA-tagged RipE1, RipE1 C172A , and RipE1 H203A and analyzed the accumulation levels of RipE1 and its mutants by immunoblotting.. RipE1 H203A was