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http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/jmf.2013.33040 Published Online August 2013 (http://www.scirp.org/journal/jmf)

A Liability Tracking Approach to Long Term

Management of Pension Funds

Masashi Ieda1, Takashi Yamashita2, Yumiharu Nakano1 1

Graduate School of Innovation Management, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan

2

The Government Pension Investment Fund, Tokyo, Japan Email: ieda@craft.titech.ac.jp

Received May 28, 2013; revised July 2, 2013; accepted July 11, 2013

Copyright © 2013 Masashi Ieda et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

ABSTRACT

We propose a long term portfolio management method which takes into account a liability. Our approach is based on the LQG (Linear, Quadratic cost, Gaussian) control problem framework and then the optimal portfolio strategy hedges the liability by directly tracking a benchmark process which represents the liability. Two numerical results using em- pirical data published by Japanese organizations are served: simulations tracking an artificial liability and an estimated liability of Japanese organization. The latter one demonstrates that our optimal portfolio strategy can hedge his or her liability.

Keywords: Pension Fund Management; Long Term Portfolio Optimization; Quadratic Hedging; Stochastic Optimal Control; Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman Equations; LQG Control

1. Introduction

In the management of pension funds, a long term portfo- lio strategy taking into account a liability is one of the most significant issues. The main reason is the demo- graphic changes in the developed countries: if the work- ing-age population is enough to provide for old age, the liability is a minor issue in the portfolio management of pension funds. Since the life expectancy has increased in recent decades, it becomes insufficient to provide for old age. Furthermore, the low birth rate continues and drives up this problem for decades. Thus pension funds face a challenging phase to construct long term portfolio strate- gies which hedge their liabilities.

A lot of pension funds except a few ones [1] determine their portfolio strategies by the traditional single time period mean variance approach which excludes an eva- luation of a liability. Its intuitive criterion attracts man- agers of pension funds. However the single time period approach is unsuitable for a long term portfolio manage- ment in the sense that it is unable to change the strategy excepting the initial time. The multi time period ap- proach which arrows the change of the strategy has a problem that the computational complexity grows expo- nentially. Hence if we employ this approach, we are usu- ally unable to obtain the optimal portfolio strategy in rea- listic time.

Therefore the aim of this paper is to propose a long term portfolio strategy which 1) involves an evaluation of a liability, 2) admits changes of the strategy at any time, and 3) is obtained in realistic time. To tackle this problem, we employ the LQG (Linear, Quadratic cost, Gaussian) control problem (see, e.g., Fleming and Rishel [2]). The LQG control problem is a class of stochastic control problem and is able to provide the control mini- mizing the mean square error of a benchmark process and a controlled process. Roughly speaking our tactic is that we compute the optimal portfolio strategy with the benchmark process which represents the liability. Then we can track the liability by using our optimal portfolio strategy. Although it is difficult to obtain the solution of stochastic control problem in general, the LQG control problem has the analytical solution which assures that we are able to obtain the solution in realistic time and thus it meets our purpose.

(2)

sion scheme including the de-cumulation phase. Our stu- dy is on the cutting edge in the sense that deals with tracking liabilities directly and constructs a suitable long term portfolio at the same time.

The organization of the present paper is as follows. We introduce continuous time models of assets and a benchmark in Section 2. To fit in the LQG control prob- lem, they are defined by the linear stochastic differential equations (SDEs). We mention that our portfolio strategy is represented by the amounts of assets. In Section 3, we define a criterion of the investment performance and provide the optimal portfolio strategy explicitly. Several numerical results are served in Section 4 Throughout the section the parameters related to the assets are deter- mined by an empirical data provided by the Government Pension Investment Fund in Japan. The simulation using an artificial data is discussed in Section 4.1 and this re-sult gives conditions that our optimal portfolio strategy works well. Section 4.2 provides a case study using an empirical estimation published by the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. It demonstrates that our strategy is able to hedge the liability well.

2. Continuous Time Models of Assets and a

Benchmark

In this section, we present mathematical models of assets and a benchmark. The market which we are considering consists of only one risk-free asset and -risky assets and we have -benchmark component processes.

n m

Let t0 be a filtered probability space be a -dimensional Brownian motion where

and be a space of stochastic

processes which satisfy

 

, , t ,

0 d

m 2

T

 

Zt t0

 

Wt t

d n

2

0 d < . T t Z t    

 

We denote price process of the risk-free asset, those of the risky assets and the benchmark component processes

by , and respec-

tively, where the asterisk means transposition. To fit in the LQG control problem, we assume that , and

are governed by the following SDEs:

0 t

S St

S1t,,Stn

*

* 1

, , m

t t t

YYY

0 t

S St

t Y

 

0 0 0 0 0 d d , , t t S

r t t S S s          (1)

 

 

1 0 0 d

d d , 1, 2, , ,

,

i d

i ij j

t S t i j t i i S

b t t t W i n

S S s           

  (2)

 

 

 

0 0 d d ,

t t Y

m

Y t Y h t t t

Y y            

 

: 0,

r T , b: 0,

 

T n, S: 0,

 

T n d ,

dWt,

(3)

where

 

: 0

 ,T m m , h: 0,

 

T m and

 

: 0,T

m d

Y

  nd T <

are deterministic continuous func-

tions a  r

r, bi and S

epresents the maturity. Coefficients

pected return rate o

stand for the risk-free rate and the ex-

ss of ed

f the i-th asset and the volatility. Let a cla portfolio strategy  be the collection of n -valu t -adapted process

 

ut 0 t T which

satisfies 

2

0 d < , T t u t    

 

 n t

nvestor at t

be the amount of the risky asset held by an

i ime t, and Xt

ount

be the va e of our portfolio . Then e am of the ris ree asset held by th

lu k-f at time t

e invest th

or is represented by Xt i1t ni

. Hence,

 

Xt 0 t T is gov rned bye

 

0 0 1 1 0 * d d d , , i n n

i t i t

0

0 0 0 0

,

t t t t T

X x

 

where . To emphasize the initial w

and th may write

t t

i

i t i t

S S X X S S s s         

1  (4)

*

1, ,1 n

 

1  

e control variable, we

ealth 0,

x t t

XX .

The solution Xt of the SDE (4) is w:

s

given as follo

    d d 0 t t

r u u  

   

0 d *

0 0

e e d

t

sr u u

t

 

*

e d .

t s

t r u u

s S s

X x b s r s s

s W     

 

 

1

Moreover since r, b, and S are continuous func-

tions on

 

0,T and , Xt is in

2 T    :  

 

   

 

 

0 2 d 2 * d 0 0 2 d * 0 0

2 2 * * * *

0 0 1 0 2 0

e d

e d d

e d d

d d < , t t s t s

T T r u u

T t r u u

s

T t r u u

s S s

T T

s s s s

b s r s s t

s W t

TK x T K s TK s

                        2 0

0Xtdt 0 x t

               

 

 

1 11 11    

  

where K0, K1 and K2 are constants.

3. Optimal Investment Strategy

ine he n erformance

We def t criterio of investment p J

by

 

T

 

* x,

2 2 , * 0 2 d , , x T T 0 1

0 t t

J a t Y X t

A Y X

              

(3)

are constants, Am

where  1 0 and  2 0 is a

constant vector, and : 0

 

Hence

, m

a T 

our invest is

contin ction. ment

find the l

a determin p

istic roblem is to uous fun

contro ˆ s.t. J   ˆ J

 

 ,   by

. Sinc quadratic f

LQG co e the

performance cri unc-

ur inve

terion is re t probl e

presented

 

a t ,

tions, o stmen em becomes the ntrol

problem. We determin AT

t

and the parameters of Yt to be able to regard

 

*

a t Y and A YT* T as a li-

ability.

The optimal portfolio strategy is represented in the following form:

Theorem 1 We define the p tfolio strategy or ˆ as follows:

 

   

1 * 00

1 ˆ

2

t S t S t

F t

   

b t r t

     

 

 

 

     

00 0* 0

* 0

2 2

2

t t

S Y

F t X F t Y G t

t t F t

 

  

 

where

1

(6)

 

00, 0: 0,

F G T  and F0: 0,

 

T

nary differential equations

m

 are

solutions

(ODEs):

of following ordi

 

 

*

   

*

1

 

00 00

d

0,

S S

b ttt b t F

 

 

 (7)

 

00 00

1

2

d

2

,

F r t F

t

F T

 

 



 

     

 

 

 

   

   

 

*

0 0

1

1

* * 0

0

2

d d

0, 2 ,

S S

0

F t a t r t F t t

t

b t t t b t F t

F T A

 

 

 

 

 

  



 

 

(8)

Ft

     

 

 

 

   

   

 

   

     

 

*

0 0 0

1

* * 0

1

* * * 0

0

d

2 d

0,

0.

S S

S S S Y

G t r t G t h t F t t

b t t t b t G t

b t t t t t F t

G T

 

   

        

 

(9)

Here we have written b t

 

b t

   

r t 1.

Then ˆ satisfies ˆ and J   ˆ J

 

 , . The proof of Theorem 1 is given in the appendix. We note that ˆt has feedback terms of Xt and

mal strategy has to catch up the the benchmark process . Hence the pref-

er tu ying o tegy is the case th

4.

R

pirical section

cial liab ted by the estima-

nistry of Health, Labour and er one suggests the situation

t

Y.

This implies that our opti delays

 

* t

a t Y

able si ation appl ur stra at

*

 

a t Yt does not fluctuate violently.

Numerical esults

We apply our method to an em data provided by the Japanese organizations. This is divided to two subsections according to the type of liabilities: an artifi-

ility and the liability construc tions published by the Mi

Welfare of Japan. The form

that our optimal strategy works well and the latter one demonstrates that our portfolio strategy is able to hedge the liability.

Before we move on the each subsection, we determine the common parameters in following subsections. The first task is to determine the parameters relating to the benchmark component processes. They consist of the income of a pension fund Ct and his or her expense

t

B and thus n2 and 

,B

*. We set the pa- ra

t t t

Y C

meters constructing the benchmark process as follows:

  

*

*

1 2 1, 1,1 , a t A 1,1 .

      

Hence, the benchmark process is BtCt which

represents a shortfall of the come and then we regard

t is shortfall as liabilit s the performance

of the strategy, we introduce a hedging error function of the i-th sample path i

and its average in

h the y. To discus

t

E Et as fol-

lows:

1

, ,

N

i i

t t t t t

i

E

E B C X E

N

   

where ti

i t

X is the i-th sample path of Xt and N

is the number of the sample paths. We set N1000

except as otherwise noted The

.

next task is to determine the risk-free rate and the expected return rates and volatilities of risky assets. We invest the following four assets: indices of the domestic

he ond he for

ording to the Gov- bond, t domestic stock, the foreign b and t - eign stock; we number them sequentially. Acc

the estimations of return rate and volatilities by

ernment Pension Investment Fund in Japan [7], we con- struct b t

 

and S

 

t as follows:

 

1

3%

b t  ,

 

2

4.8%

b t  , b3

 

t 3.5% and b4

 

t 5.0%;

 

,

1, ,

,

0 otherwise,

ij ij

S

i j n

t

  



(10)

where  the Cholesky decomposition of , a vari-

ance-co ance m f the assets:

29.7 4.39

vari atrix o

4

10 . 18.2 5.41 18.2 495 77.8 119

4.39 77.8 181 147 5.41 119 147 394

 

 

 

 

  

 

(4)

We choose a money market account as the risk-free asset and we set

4.1. Simulation with an Artificial Liability

In this subsection, we consider the following an artificial deterministic liability model:

(11)

i.e., we set

 

0.0%

r t  .

0

0.01 d , 80 trillion yen ,

t t

C

  

dC C t

 

0 100 trillion yen ,

t t

B

 (12)

dB 0.01 d ,B t



 

t 0.01 ij

ij

  

wealth coincides wi

0 0 0

and . We assume

that our th the

tial time:

 

0

h t

benchmark at the ini-

XBC . We over three deca

functions 00

const ptimal port-

folio strategy des, . Then we

determ

ruct the o

i.e., T: 30

ine the F , F0

d simulate and G0

by solving

the ODEs (7)-(9) numerically. an N paths of

S Yt, t

on

 

0,T accordin

Figure 1 de

g to E (1)-(3) using

a standard Euler-Maruyama scheme with time-step

0.25

t

  . scribes an investment result of a

sample path. The black and red lines ure 1 re- present BtCt and t

quations

in Fig

X respectively.

The most significant issue it indicates is that the per-

form rategy is quite poor near the maturity.

Figure 2 describing ance of the st

t

E implies that this poor perform- a not depend on the sample path. Figure 3 sug-gests a key factor of this phenomenon: values of func- tions 00

nce does

F , F0 and G0 change drastically between

25 and t30; this time period coincides with the term the hedging error becomes large rapidly. Figure 3

also implies that the existence of the stationary solutions of the ODEs (7)-(9). As described in Figure 2, the strat- egy relatively works well on the time period when the

functi 00

t

ons F , F0

an G0

reach the stationary state.

H the st will be improved by using the sta-

tionary solutions of the ODEs (7)-(9) on entire region. d

ence rategy

Figure 1. A sample path of BtCt and Xt

Figure 2. Averaged hedging error E . t

Figure 3. . The

lack, red

The time evolution of F , F and , green and blue lines represent

000 0

G 01

b 00

F , F ,02 F and respectively.

To obtain the stationary solutions of the ODEs (7)-(9), we replace to a value large enough. We denote it by

and set

0 G

T T

T 50. Figure 4 shows values of F00, F0

pa-and

ram

0

G

eter

obtained by solving the ODEs can find that the functions

(9) with

00

T. We F , 0

F

and G0 take the stationary solutions on

 

0,T .

proved strategy are Results of simulations using the im

described as follows.

Figures 5 and 6 indicate that the performance near the maturity is improved and it does not depend on the sam

the onc th

the ol

-ple paths. This result leads us to c lusion at we should construct the strategy with stationary s utions of the functions F00, F0 and G0 if ey xi .

At e end of this s

th e sts

th b n, ntion about our

portfolio com tio

st ed by ec

th rke

bench-m

d the foreign stock, high risk

u sectio we me

position. Figure 7 displays the asset alloca- n on the sample path described in Figure 5. The mon-ey market account, the domestic bond and the for- eign

ock indicat light blue, black and blue lines resp -tively dominate our portfolio. The optimal strategy is that we keep e most part of the wealth as the money ma t account and compensate for the increment of the

. The black and red lines represent BtCt and Xt

ark by the investment for the domestic bond, low risk and low return asset, an

(5)
[image:5.595.67.280.85.218.2]

Figure 4. The time evolution of 00 F , 0

F and 0

G (improved case). The black, red, green and blue lines represent F00

, F ,0102

[image:5.595.100.247.277.419.2]

F and G respectively. 0

Figure 5. A sample path of BtCt and Xt (improved

version). The ackbl and red lin represent es BtCt and t

X respectively.

gure 6. Averaged

Fi hedging error E (improved version). t

nd high return asset. If

a Xt is deficient in BtCt, the

strategy increases the p tion of the do and the foreign stock.

4.2. Simulation with an Empirical Liability

According to the Japanese actuarial valuation published

in 2009 [8], the estimated income and expense of the welfare pension are showed in the Figure 8.

We regard these estimations as and and

si-mulate the three decades investme n optimal

strategy from 2040 when the shortfall of the p fund starts to expand drastically. The following r s sup- port that this situation is a valid dy: 1 a phase expanding

ropor mestic bond

t

C

nts usi

case stu

t

B

g our ension eason

)

t t

BC , the shortfall of pe fund, is

the most typical one expressing the dem ;

2) the beha

the nsion ographic changes viour of BtCt

optima on. Th

in this meets the con-

dition to apply l strategy: increas-

ing in the entire roughout t we

2 term

h 0 our

regi

t t

BC is is subsection set the start point as the year 40, i.e., t0 and

15

t represent the year 2040 and the year 2055 respec- tively.

To construct the optimal strategy, we first calibrate

 

t

 , Y

 

t and h t

 

to fit the estimations. Setting

 

t Y

 

t 0

   and h t

 

as a numerical differentia- plish cades tion of the estimations is a simple method to accom the purpose. Since we are discussing the three de portfolio, we determine T 30. As suggested in Section

Figure 7. An amount of each asset on the sample path de- d in Figure 5. The black, red, green, blue and light blue lin

scribe

es represent the amount of a domestic bond, a do- m

mark c n tive

estic stock, a foreign bond, a foreign stock and money et a cou t respec ly.

[image:5.595.313.537.352.479.2] [image:5.595.95.250.475.622.2] [image:5.595.354.493.551.685.2]
(6)

4.1, we set T50 to obtain the stationary F00 and

0

F . We are unable to expect the stationary G0 because

 

h t explicitly depends on t . We assume that our wealth coincide with the benchmark at the initial time:

0 0 0

XBC . Then we simu te la N paths of

S Yt, t

on

 

0,T

Euler-according to Equations

a sc e-ste

(1)-(3) using a p

stan-

0.25

dard Maruyam heme with tim  t

which means that we can rearrange our portfolio every quarter. Results of the simulations are as follows.

We are able to argue that our strategy hedges the shortfall well since Figure 9 suggests that Et, the aver-

aged hedging error, is approximately 3% of BtCt, the

shortfall, in every quarter.

Figure 10 displays the asset allocation on the sample path described in Figure 11. In the same manner as in the case of the artificial liabilities discussed in Section 4.1, our optimal portfolio is dominated by the money

ncr

ing p

[image:6.595.350.495.86.222.2]

market account, the domestic bond and the foreign stock. However the proportion of the domestic bond and the foreign stock is much higher. We can understand this phenomenon intuitively: since the shortfall i eases more rapid than that discussed in Section 4.1, the hedg- ortfolio is rearranged to become more profitable. The practical suggestion from this fact is that we have to take a risk to track the increasing liability and this is

Figure 9. Averaged hedging error E . t

Figure 10. An amount of each asset on the sample path de- scribed in Figure 11. The black, red, green, blue and light blue lines represent the amount of a domestic bond, a do- mestic stock, a foreign bond, a foreign stock and money market account respectively.

Figure 11. A sample path of BtCt and Xt. The black

and red lines represent BtCt and Xt res ectively. quite natural.

5. Summary

We have proposed a long term portfolio management method which takes into account a liability. The LQG control approach allows us to construct a more suitable long term portfolio strategy than myopic one obtained by the single time period mean variance approach in th

d hence it is intuitive. Two numerical simulations are served: the former one sug- gests the situation that our portfolio strategy works well; the latter one provides the result with the empirical data published by Japanese organizations. The result demon- strates that our portfolio strategy is able to hedge the li- ability, the shortfall of the income of the Japanese wel- fare pension, over three decades.

This study leaves ample scope for further research. Since our criterion is the mean square error, our portfolio strategy inhibits that our wealth exceeds a liability. This is the similar problem with the traditional mean variance

to avoi ha

liability. Then he

putability as mentioned in the introduc-

gements

p

e sense that we are able to change the strategy at any time. Our optimal portfolio strategy hedges the liability by directly tracking the benchmark process which represents the liability. The strategy is evaluated by the mean square error from the benchmark an

approach. One of approaches d it is t t we extend criterion which is able to hedge only the case that our

wealth goes under the we again face t

problem of com tory section.

6. Acknowled

This work is partially supported by a collaboration re- search project with the Government Pension Investment Fund in Japan in 2011-2012.

REFERENCES

[image:6.595.63.284.396.675.2]
(7)

http://www.cppib.ca/Investments/Total_Portfolio_View/ [2] W. H. Fleming and R. W. Rishel, “Deterministic and Sto-

chastic Optimal Control,” Springer-Verlag, New York, 1975. doi:10.1007/978-1-4612-6380-7

[3] G. Deelstra, M. Grasselli and P.-F. Koehl, “Optimal In- vestment Strategies in the Presence of a Minimum Guar- antee,” Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Vol. 33, No. 1, 2003, pp. 189-207.

doi:10.1016/S0167-6687(03)00153-7

[4] M. Di Giacinto, S. Federico and F. Gozzi, “Pension Funds with a Minimum Guarantee: A Stochastic Control Ap- proach,” Finance and Stochastics, Vol. 15, No. 2, 2010, pp. 297-342. doi:10.1007/s00780-010-0127-7

[5] F. Menoncin and O. Scaillet, “Optimal Asset Manage-

ment for Pension Funds,” Manageri

No. 4, 2006, pp. 347.

al Finance, Vol. 32,

doi:10.1108/03074350610652260

[6] R. Gerrard, B. Højgaard and E. Vigna, “Choosing the Optimal Annuitization Time Postretirement,” Quantita- tive Finance, Vol. 12, No. 7, 2012, pp. 1143-1159.

doi:10.1080/14697680903358248

[7] The Government Pension Investment Fund in Japan, 2013. http://www.gpif.go.jp/operation/committee/pdf/h191001_ appendix_05.pdf

[8] The Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, 2013.

(8)

Appendix

roof of Theorem 1

he value function corresponding to our problem (5) is efined by P T d

 

 

0 0 0 2 * , 1 2 , , * 2

, inf d

, .

T x

t t s s

x x

T T t t

V x y a s Y X s

A Y X X x Y y

                

 

Hence the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman JB) equation is given by

0,

(13) (H

 

 

 

* 2

1

, ,

inf tV x yt V x yt a t y x

  L  

with terminal condition

m

 

2

* 2

,

T

V x y  A yx ,

 

x y,    , where t is partial differential opera-

tor with respect to t and L is the infinitesimal gen- erator of the process

X Yt, t

:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

* 2 * , 2  t S tS t  t x x y

 (i)

 

 

   

 

* * * * 2 , , , 1 2 ,

Tr , ,

t x

y

t S Y y x

Y Y y

x y r t x b t x y

t y h t x y

t t x y

t t x y

                         L

for . Here

* 

2 m

C

    j

x

 and yj are the

l operators with respect

j-th

order partial differentia to x

and y. As S

  

tS t

*

 

is positive ni fim

defi te, the in- um of (13) is attained at

   

 

 

   

*

 

, , S S x t

x t S Y y x t

t t

b t V x y t t V x y

 

 

   

and hence (13) can be written as

1 * 2 1 ˆ , t

V x y

      ,

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

   

   

 

 

   

* 1 2 * * 2 * 1 2 2 * * * * * 2 * , , 1 , 2 , , , 2 , , , 2 0

t t x t

S S x t

x t x t

S S x t

x t

y x t Y S S Y y x t

V x y r t x V x y t y h t

b t t t b t V x y

V x y V x y

t

b t t t b t V x y

V x y

V x y t t t t V x

c x xa t y y a t a t y

                                  . (ii)

Let us try a value function of the form

where 2 1 * * * * , , 1 x t

S S S Y y x t

V x y

b tt tt V x y

 

  

,

yV x yt

y

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*

00 2 0 *

* 0

, 2

,

t

V x y F t x xF t y y F t y

G t x G t y g t

  

  

 

 

00, 0, : 0,

F G g T , F G0,: 0,

 

T m

and

F is a time-dependant symmetric matrix. It is straight- forward to see that

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

00 00

1

* * 00

00 d 2 d 0, , S S

F t c r t F t

t

b t t t b t F t

F T C

               (14)

 

     

 

 

 

   

   

 

* 0 0 1

* * 0

0 d d 0, 2 , S S 0

F t ca t r t F t t F t

t

b t t t b t F t

F T CA

                    (15)

     

 

 

 

   

   

 

 

   

     

 

*

0 0 0

1

* * 0

1 * * 0 d 2 d 0, 0, S S

G t r t G t h t F t

t

b t t t b t r t G t

t G T           

* 0

S S S Y

b ttttt F

     1  (16)   

 

   

   

     

* * * 0 0 d 2 d 1 0, F

 

* , 00

t ca t a t t F t

t

F t F t

          F t

F T CAA

 

 (17)

     

   

   

 

   

   

   

 

   

   

     

 

* * 0 1

* * 0

00 0 1 * * 00 * 0 d 2 d 0, 0, S S S S S Y

G t r t G t t G t h t F t

t

G t

b t t t b t G t

F t

F t

b t t t

F t

t t F t

(9)

     

 

 

   

   

 

   

   

     

 

* 2 0 1 * * 00 0 1 * * 00 * 0 d Tr d 4 2 0, 0, Y Y S S S S S Y

g t h t G t F t

t

G t

b t t t b t

F t

G

b t t t

F t

t t F t

g T                                (19)

and then the associated candidate strategy is represented by

 

   

 

 

 

   

 

1 * 00

00 0 0

* 0

1 ˆ

2

( ) 2 2

2 .

t S S

S Y

t t

F t

b t F t F t G t

t t F t

                (iii)

Since (14) and (15) are linear ODEs, they have solutions on

unique

 

0,T . The existence of unique F0

 

t

nce (16) suggests that (1 d (17) are linear ODEs. He

and (17) also nique solutions on

6) an

have u

 

0,T

utions  si

. In the of (18) nce t

same ma existence of unique sol

and (19) are nteed. Therefore

nner, the

guara ˆt X

ow that

and in

the verification, t Y We

 . now start 2 T  

i.e., we sh

 

0 0, 0

V x yJ  ,  and V0

x y0, 0

  J ˆ

nce of stopping tim . To

que es

this end, we

 

l l s.t.

introduce a se

u 2 u 2

0 0

inf 0 : d , d .

l u Xt t t l Yt t t l

  

 

 

Applying the Ito formula to

l

taking expectation, we have

d

,

T l T l T

V  X  Y and

 

 

0 0 0 0 * 0 * 0 , , , , , d

, d .

T l

t t t t t t t

T l

x t t t S t T l

x t t t Y t

V x y

V X Y L V X Y t

V X Y

V X Y t W

V X Y t W

                        

  

T Tl Tl  (iv)

As Xt and Y are in

2 T  

 and Y ,

0

F ,

F and G are continuous functions on

 

0,T , the last term vanishes: * 0 , T l

 

 

   

 

 

0 0 * 0 * 0 2 d d 0.

 

d 2

*

d

y t t t Y t

T l

t Y t

t Y t

T l

Y t

V X Y t W

X F t W

Y F t t W

G t t W

     T l t                       

       

 

(v)

 

By the definition of l, the continuity of the functions 00

F , F0

and G0

, and the fact that 

so vanishes:

, the al

maining stochastic integral term

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

* 0 00 * 0 * 0 * 0 0 * 0 , d 2 d 2 d d 0. T l

x t t t t S t

T l

t t S t

T l

t t S t

T l

t S t

V X Y t W

F t X t W

F t Y t W

G t t W

                                     

     (vi) e

Sinc l when l goes to infinity, we get

0, 0

T

V x y

0

0 , ,

, .

t t t t t t t

T T T

V X Y L V X Y t

V X Y

 





 d (vii)

By the HJB Equation (13) and its term we obtain

inal condition,

 

*

2

*

2

0 0, 0 0 1 d 2 T

V x y  a t yx t A yx,

which means that V0

x y0, 0

J

 

 ,  . In the

me manner we find that V0

x y0, 0

J ˆ

sa    and then

Figure

Figure 4. The time evolution of F00, F0 and G  0(improved case). The black, red, green and blue lines represent F00, F01,F02 and G  respectively
Figure 9. Averaged hedging error

References

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