ING Economic Forecasts

(1)

1

ING Economic Forecasts

Bloomberg: RESP INGX<GO>

GDP Forecasts

%YoY 2Q21F 3Q21F 4Q21F 1Q22F 2021F 2022F 2023F

World (USD) 10.7 4.9 4.8 4.5 6.0 4.2 3.8

US 13.1 6.7 7.1 6.5 6.7 4.6 3.0

Japan 7.1 2.6 0.5 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.3

Germany 9.8 4.7 5.3 7.7 4.1 4.7 1.6

France 17.5 1.3 4.0 4.9 5.6 3.8 2.0

UK 22.7 6.6 6.9 9.8 6.7 5.2 1.1

Italy 15.1 1.3 4.3 4.9 4.6 4.1 2.4

Canada 13.6 6.2 5.4 5.0 6.2 4.6 2.3

Australia 9.6 6.5 4.1 3.0 5.2 2.9 2.7

New Zealand 14.6 1.1 3.2 2.6 5.4 2.8 2.9

Eurozone 13.1 2.5 4.6 5.7 4.5 3.9 1.7

Austria 10.7 1.5 5.3 5.9 3.0 4.3 2.5

Spain 7.0 12.6 6.1 3.6 5.6 5.0 2.0

Netherlands 9.2 3.2 4.0 5.3 3.4 3.1 1.6

Belgium 13.7 2.7 3.4 3.0 4.5 2.8 2.1

Ireland 12.8 13.6 3.9 9.6 9.8 2.9 2.3

Greece 8.5 7.0 5.4 1.5 4.4 3.5 2.6

Portugal 13.9 2.9 4.1 8.5 3.5 5.0 2.0

Switzerland 8.6 2.4 2.8 - 3.3 2.6 1.3

Sweden 9.1 2.2 2.7 2.2 3.4 2.0 1.4

Norway 7.4 3.2 1.8 3.6 3.0 2.8 2.0

Bulgaria 10.3 6.7 5.6 4.1 5.4 3.9 3.2

Croatia 14.8 10.5 7.4 5.0 8.0 4.1 4.0

Czech Republic 8.27 2.91 3.33 - 3.10 4.06 3.0

Hungary 17.4 8.2 6.2 5.5 7.4 4.4 3.9

Poland 10.6 5.1 6.8 5.4 5.4 5.0 5.3

Romania 14.5 9.5 5.8 4.6 7.5 5.0 4.5

Turkey 19.0 -1.6 1.0 - 5.5 4.0 4.0

Serbia 13.5 7.0 6.1 4.8 7.0 5.0 5.0

Russia 9.5 4.0 3.3 2.5 3.8 2.2 3.0

Kazakhstan 4.2 4.4 4.3 2.6 3.2 3.7 4.0

Ukraine 9.6 4.1 2.7 6.5 3.7 4.7 4.0

Azerbaijan 2.2 1.9 2.5 2.3 2.7 2.1 2.5

China 6.0 5.0 5.5 3.0 8.7 4.6 6.0

Hong Kong 8.5 6.0 5.0 2.0 6.9 3.1 4.3

India 17.1 4.9 4.3 7.1 7.8 6.7 6.4

Indonesia 7.1 4.3 4.5 4.6 3.7 4.3 5.0

Korea 6.1 4.8 4.4 3.3 4.3 3.1 3.2

Malaysia 11.0 2.2 5.8 4.0 4.4 4.8 4.5

Philippines 11.0 5.8 5.0 4.8 4.3 4.3 4.5

Singapore 12.2 4.5 2.5 2.6 4.9 3.5 3.0

Taiwan 6.1 1.0 0.5 1.8 4.1 2.3 3.5

Thailand 6.2 2.3 3.1 2.4 2.1 2.8 3.0

¹ Norway: Forecasts are mainland GDP

*World GDP figure calculated from countries covered in INGF Source: ING estimates

Page 2 CPI and Oil Price Forecasts Page 5 Bond Yield Forecasts Page 3 Central Bank Policy Rate Forecasts Page 6 FX Forecasts Page 4 3M Interest Rate Forecasts

14 July 2021

www.ing.com/THINK James Knightley Chief International Economist [email protected] ING Global Economics Team

(2)

2

CPI Forecasts, pa

%YoY 2Q21F 3Q21F 4Q21F 1Q22F 2021F 2022F 2023F

World 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.1 2.3 2.9 2.6

US 4.6 4.8 4.9 4.6 4.1 3.4 2.6

Japan -0.2 0.0 0.7 0.6 0.0 0.7 0.6

Germany 2.3 3.6 4.4 2.2 3.0 1.7 1.8

France 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.2 1.6 1.3 1.3

UK 1.9 2.1 2.7 2.7 1.8 2.1 1.8

Italy 1.2 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.3 1.2 1.2

Canada 3.3 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.1 2.9 2.3

Australia 3.5 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.5

New Zealand 3.4 3 2.3 2.1 2.9 2.4 2.2

Eurozone 1.9 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6

Austria 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.7

Spain 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7

Netherlands 2.0 1.7 2.2 1.6 1.9 1.7 1.8

Belgium 1.4 2.0 2.1 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.8

Ireland 0.1 1.7 2.1 2.1 1.5 1.7 1.5

Greece -0.8 0.6 1.0 1.3 -0.3 0.9 0.8

Portugal 0.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.0 1.7 1.7

Switzerland 0.6 1.0 0.5 - 0.4 0.6 0.6

Sweden 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.6

Norway 2.8 2.6 2.9 2.0 2.8 2.2 2.0

Bulgaria 2.3 3.2 3.7 3.0 2.3 3.0 3.0

Croatia 2.1 1.7 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5

Czech Republic 2.4 2.5 2.9 - 2.2 1.9 2.4

Hungary 5.2 4.4 4.9 4.0 4.5 3.3 3.1

Poland 4.5 4.4 4.8 4.5 4.1 3.5 3.1

Romania 3.5 4.4 4.7 3.8 3.9 3.3 3.0

Turkey 17.0 17.0 14.5 - 16.2 12.2 9.9

Serbia 2.9 2.9 3.6 3.5 2.7 2.9 3.0

Russia 6.5 6.5 5.7 5.1 6.0 4.6 5.0

Kazakhstan 7.9 9.2 7.5 7.3 7.8 6.3 5.5

Ukraine¹ 9.5 9.2 7.5 5.8 8.7 6.0 5.0

Azerbaijan 5.1 5.7 5.1 2.8 4.9 3.3 3.5

China 1.1 1.4 2.5 2.5 1.2 2.4 2.0

Hong Kong 1.0 2.4 3.5 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.5

India 5.7 6.0 5.2 6.3 5.8 5.4 5.1

Indonesia 1.5 2.5 3.0 3.1 2.2 3.3 3.2

Korea 2.5 2.1 2.4 1.5 2.0 1.6 1.7

Malaysia 4.0 3.0 2.8 1.5 2.6 1.5 1.7

Philippines 4.4 3.7 3.4 4.0 3.0 3.4

Singapore 2.0 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.3

Taiwan 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.5 2.00

Thailand 2.3 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.50

Oil Price Forecasts, avg (US$/bbl)

Brent 61 67 70 70 67 70 75

¹ Quarterly forecasts are eop; yearly forecasts are average over the year Updated 16 July 2021

Source: ING estimates

(3)

3

Policy Rate Forecasts (end period)

(%) 3Q21F 4Q21F 1Q22F 2Q22F 3Q22F 4Q22F 4Q23F

US¹ 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.50

Eurozone 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Japan -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10

UK 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.50

Switzerland -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75

Sweden 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Norway 0.25 0.50 0.75 0.75 1.00 1.00 1.50

Canada 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.50

Australia 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.50

New Zealand 0.5 0.5 0.75 0.75 1 1 1.5

Czech Republic 0.25 0.75 1.00 1.00 - 1.50 2.00

Hungary 1.35 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.25

Poland 0.10 0.35 0.60 0.60 1.00 1.25 1.50

Romania 1.25 1.25 1.50 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.00

Turkey 19.00 16.00 15.00 14.00 - 12.00 10.00

Serbia 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.50 1.50

Russia 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.50 6.25 6.25 6.50

Kazakhstan 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.25 9.25 9.00 8.50

Ukraine 7.75 7.50 7.50 7.25 7.25 7.00 6.00

Azerbaijan 6.25 6.25 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50

China* 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20

India 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.25 4.25 4.50

Indonesia 3.50 3.50 3.75 3.75 4.00 4.00 4.50

Korea 0.5 0.75 0.75 1 1 1 1.25

Malaysia 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.00

Philippines 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.25 2.50 3.00

Taiwan 1.125 1.125 1.125 1.125 1.125 1.125 1.125

Thailand 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75

¹Upper level of 25bp range, *PBOC 7-day reverse repo rate Updated 16 July 2021

(4)

4

3-month Interest Rate Forecasts (end period)

(%) 3Q21F 4Q21F 1Q22F 2Q22F 3Q22F 4Q22F 4Q23F

US 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.60 0.90 1.70

Eurozone -0.55 -0.50 -0.50 -0.45 -0.40 -0.40 -0.20

Japan -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10

UK 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.20 0.25 0.35 0.70

Switzerland -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75

Sweden 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.20

Norway 0.30 0.60 0.90 1.00 1.20 1.30 1.40

Canada 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.60 0.70 1.80

Australia 0.05 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.60

New Zealand 0.7 0.8 1 1.1 1.25 1.3 1.7

Czech Republic 0.37 0.90 1.15 1.15 - 1.65 2.15

Hungary 1.50 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.25

Poland 0.31 0.46 0.80 0.90 1.22 1.40 1.67

Romania 1.70 1.75 1.75 1.85 2.00 2.00 2.25

Turkey 18.43 16.11 15.25 14.03 - 12.63 10.91

Serbia 0.90 0.90 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.50 1.60

Russia 7.25 7.05 7.05 6.80 6.55 6.55 6.80

Kazakhstan 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.25 10.25 10.00 9.50

China* 2.70 2.90 3.00 3.10 3.20 3.30 3.70

Hong Kong 0.19 0.23 0.28 0.35 0.45 0.60 1.15

India 3.50 3.55 3.60 3.70 3.80 3.80 4.00

Indonesia 3.82 3.90 4.24 4.28 4.69 4.81 5.08

Korea 0.8 1 1.1 1.25 1.25 1.3 1.5

Malaysia 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 2.05 2.15

Philippines* 1.64 1.90 2.22 2.27 2.70 2.89 3.14

Singapore 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.80

Taiwan* 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.48

Thailand 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.70 0.90

*3-month CD rate for Korea, T-bill rate for the Philippines and CP rate for Taiwan; 3-month bank acceptance futures for Canada; 3-month bank bill for Australia and 3-month interbank rates for others.

(5)

5

10Y Bond Yield Forecasts (end period 10Y unless stated)

(%) 3Q21F 4Q21F 1Q22F 2Q22F 3Q22F 4Q22F 4Q23F

US: Fed funds 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.50

3M 0.10 0.14 0.14 0.18 0.49 0.77 1.70

2Y 0.20 0.40 0.40 0.65 0.75 1.00 2.00

5Y 1.00 1.25 1.25 1.50 1.60 1.85 2.25

10Y 1.75 2.00 2.00 2.25 2.25 2.50 2.50

30Y 2.35 2.55 2.55 2.75 2.75 2.90 2.75

EU12: ECB refi* 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

3M -0.50 -0.50 -0.50 -0.45 -0.40 -0.40 -0.20

2Y -0.70 -0.70 -0.70 -0.65 -0.65 -0.60 -0.45

5Y -0.50 -0.45 -0.40 -0.35 -0.30 -0.25 -0.05

10Y -0.10 0.00 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.40

30Y 0.60 0.75 0.75 0.80 0.80 0.85 0.95

Japan 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

France 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.65

Italy 0.90 0.90 1.00 1.05 1.10 1.15 1.30

Spain 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 1.00

UK 0.85 1.00 1.00 1.10 1.20 1.30 1.50

Netherlands 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.50

Belgium 0.15 - 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.65

Austria 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.60

Ireland 0.25 0.35 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.75

Portugal 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 1.00

Switzerland -0.15 -0.10 -0.05 0.00 - 0.00 0.10

Sweden 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.60 0.70 0.80 1.00

Norway 1.70 2.00 2.10 2.30 2.30 2.50 2.50

Finland 0.15 0.25 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.65

Canada 1.70 2.00 2.00 2.25 2.25 2.50 2.50

Australia 1.50 1.60 1.65 1.70 1.80 2.00 2.50

New Zealand 1.90 2.00 2.05 2.10 2.20 2.40 2.60

Bulgaria 0.20 0.20 0.30 0.30 0.40 0.40 0.80

Croatia 0.60 0.65 0.75 0.75 0.80 0.85 1.00

Czech Rep 2.20 2.30 2.30 2.30 - 2.40 2.50

Hungary 3.10 3.20 3.30 3.35 3.35 3.40 3.60

Poland 1.75 1.85 1.95 2.00 2.05 2.15 2.60

Romania 3.40 3.50 3.60 3.60 3.50 3.50 3.50

Russia 7.40 7.20 7.30 7.40 7.50 7.50 7.50

Turkey 18.66 15.98 15.76 14.61 - 13.45 12.55

China 3.20 3.40 3.45 3.55 3.65 3.70 4.00

Hong Kong 1.30 1.45 1.60 1.70 1.80 1.90 2.30

India 6.15 6.20 6.30 6.40 6.50 6.60 7.10

Indonesia 6.56 6.67 6.91 6.97 7.19 7.26 7.65

Korea 2.1 2.25 2.25 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5

Malaysia 3.30 3.35 3.40 3.45 3.50 3.50 3.80

Philippines 4.05 4.20 4.42 4.61 5.26 5.40 5.92

Singapore 1.65 1.75 1.85 1.95 2.00 2.10 2.30

Taiwan 0.45 0.50 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.80 1.20

Thailand 1.80 1.85 1.90 1.95 2.00 2.10 2.50

*Apart from ECB refi rate, all Eurozone bond yield forecasts refer to German bund yields Updated 16 July 2021

(6)

6

Foreign Exchange Forecasts (end period)

3Q21F 4Q21F 1Q22F 2Q22F 3Q22F 4Q22F 4Q23F

Euro EUR/USD 1.20 1.23 1.23 1.20 1.18 1.15 1.10

Japan USD/JPY 111.00 112.00 113.00 115.00 118.00 120.00 125.00

UK GBP/USD 1.41 1.45 1.46 1.45 1.44 1.40 1.34

Japan EUR/JPY 133.00 138.00 139.00 138.00 139.00 138.00 138.00

UK EUR/GBP 0.85 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.82 0.82

Canada USD/CAD 1.20 1.18 1.19 1.20 1.21 1.22 1.20

Australia AUD/USD 0.77 0.79 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.73

New Zealand NZD/USD 0.73 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.74 0.73 0.70

Switzerland EUR/CHF 1.12 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.15

Sweden EUR/SEK 10.00 9.90 9.75 9.70 9.70 9.70 9.90

Norway EUR/NOK 10.00 9.90 9.75 9.75 9.70 9.70 10.00

Denmark EUR/DKK 7.45 7.45 7.45 7.46 7.46 7.47 7.47

Croatia EUR/HRK 7.50 7.51 7.53 7.51 7.49 7.53 7.53

Serbia EUR/RSD 117.55 117.55 117.60 117.60 117.55 117.50 117.40

Czech Republic EUR/CZK 25.50 25.30 25.30 25.20 25.20 25.00 24.60

Hungary EUR/HUF 340.00 345.00 350.00 350.00 355.00 355.00 365.00

Poland EUR/PLN 4.45 4.38 4.40 4.42 4.43 4.44 4.44

Romania EUR/RON 4.92 4.92 4.95 4.95 4.95 4.95 4.95

Turkey USD/TRY

South Africa USD/ZAR 14.25 14.50 15.25 16.00 16.25 16.50 17.00

Israel USD/ILS 3.20 3.20 3.25 3.30 3.35 3.40 3.50

Russia USD/RUB 75.00 73.00 72.00 74.00 76.00 74.00 75.00

EUR/RUB 90.00 89.79 88.56 88.80 89.68 85.10 82.50

Kazakhstan USD/KZT 425.00 420.00 415.00 420.00 415.00 425.00 430.00

Ukraine USD/UAH 27.50 27.50 27.75 28.00 28.25 28.50 28.50

Azerbaijan USD/AZN 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70

Brazil USD/BRL 5.00 5.25 5.50 5.75 5.85 6.00 6.50

Mexico USD/MXN 19.93 19.75 19.75 20.25 20.30 20.50 21.00

Chile USD/CLP 734.00 725.00 750.00 775.00 785.00 800.00 850.00

China USD/CNY 6.55 6.45 6.40 6.30 6.20 6.10 5.90

Hong Kong USD/HKD 7.755 7.755 7.760 7.770 7.800 7.800 7.800

India USD/INR 75.30 75.80 76.20 76.40 76.00 75.50 74.00

Indonesia USD/IDR 14865 14987 15092 15198 15121 15149 15525

Korea USD/KRW 1130 1110 1090 1080 1130 1140 1160

Malaysia USD/MYR 4.19 4.22 4.20 4.18 4.15 4.12 4.00

Philippines USD/PHP 49.82 49.96 50.28 51.05 51.22 51.38 51.85

Singapore USD/SGD 1.36 1.37 1.35 1.33 1.32 1.31 1.30

Taiwan USD/TWD 27.80 28.00 28.10 28.10 28.05 28.05 28.00

Thailand USD/THB 32.60 33.00 32.80 32.50 32.20 31.80 31.00

Updated 16 July 2021 Source: ING estimates

(7)

7

Disclaimer

This publication has been prepared by the Economic and Financial Analysis Division of ING Bank N.V. (“ING”) solely for information purposes without regard to any particular user's investment objectives, financial situation, or means. ING forms part of ING Group (being for this purpose ING Group N.V. and its subsidiary and affiliated companies). The information in the publication is not an investment recommendation and it is not investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Reasonable care has been taken to ensure that this publication is not untrue or misleading when published, but ING does not represent that it is accurate or complete. ING does not accept any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication. Unless otherwise stated, any views, forecasts, or estimates are solely those of the author(s), as of the date of the publication and are subject to change without notice.

The distribution of this publication may be restricted by law or regulation in different jurisdictions and persons into whose possession this publication comes should inform themselves about, and observe, such restrictions.

Copyright and database rights protection exists in this report and it may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose without the prior express consent of ING. All rights are reserved. ING Bank N.V. is authorised by the Dutch Central Bank and supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB), the Dutch Central Bank (DNB) and the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM). ING Bank N.V. is incorporated in the Netherlands (Trade Register no. 33031431 Amsterdam). In the United Kingdom this information is approved and/or communicated by ING Bank N.V., London Branch.

ING Bank N.V., London Branch is deemed authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and is subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority. The nature and extent of consumer protections may differ from those for firms based in the UK. Details of the Temporary Permissions Regime, which allows EEA-based firms to operate in the UK for a limited period while seeking full authorisation, are available on the Financial Conduct Authority’s website. ING Bank N.V., London branch is registered in England (Registration number BR000341) at 8-10 Moorgate, London EC2 6DA. For US Investors: Any person wishing to discuss this report or effect transactions in any security discussed herein should contact ING Financial Markets LLC, which is a member of the NYSE, FINRA and SIPC and part of ING, and which has accepted responsibility for the distribution of this report in the United States under applicable requirements.

ING Economic Forecasts