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(1)

What if BAU would come true?

Scanning transport CO 2 emissions in the EU

Petri Tapio & Jyrki Luukkanen

Finland Futures Research Centre

(2)

The approach

„

Introduction of general trends on EU15 level – GDP

– Transport CO

2

emissions

„

Historical CO

2

data by country – 1960-1999

„

Future extrapolations CO

2

by country – 2000-2012

„

Historical transport CO

2

intensity of the economy by country – CO

2

/GDP 1960-1999

„

Future extrapolation of intensity by country – 2000-2012

„

Comparison with USA and Japan – history 1960-1999

– 2000-2012

„

Discussion

(3)

CO 2 emissions by sector in EU15 1985-1999

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

1985 1990 1995 2000

CO2

Emissions /106tn

Electricity & Heat Production

Transport

Household &

Commerce Industry

Energy Branch

Source of Data:

Eurostat 2000; 2002

(4)

GDP, passenger traffic, freight and traffic

CO 2 in EU15 in 1970-2000, scanning for 2012

Source: Eurostat

Passenger km R2 = 0,994 CO2 R2 = 0,977

Freight R2 = 0,954 GDPmer R2 = 0,991

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

1970 1980 1990 2000 2012

Real GDPmer, passenger transport and freight transport/

(index 1970=100);

CO

2

emissions from transport/

(index 1985=150)

Passenger km CO2 from transport Freight (tnkm) GDPmer

(5)

Transport CO 2 emissions by country – EU15

„ Big countries

– France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK

„ Little central and southern countries

– Austria, Belgium, Greece, Ireland, Luxemburg, Netherlands, Portugal

„ Nordic countries

– Denmark, Finland, Sweden

(6)

History 1960-1999: Big EU countries

„

Source: IEA

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Time/ Year

Transport CO2

emissions / Tg

Germany

France

UK

Italy

Spain

(7)

Future 2012 – big countries

„

Source: IEA

Linear extrapolation - big EU countries

R2 = 0,9762

R2 = 0,9701 R2 = 0,9912

R2 = 0,9958 R2 = 0,9446

0 50 100 150 200 250

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012

Transport CO2

emissions / Tg Germany

France

UK Italy

Spain

(8)

Future 2012 – big countries

„

Source: IEA

Second order polynomial extrapolation - big EU countries

R2 = 0,9804 R2 = 0,9804 R2 = 0,9912 R2 = 0,9959 R2 = 0,975

0 50 100 150 200 250

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

2012

Transport CO2

emissions / Tg Germany

UK

France Italy

Spain

(9)

History: Little central and southern countries (1960-1999)

„

Source: IEA

Transport CO

2

in the little central and southern EU countries

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Time/Year

Transport CO2 emissions / Tg

Netherlands

Belgium

Greece

Austria

Portugal

Ireland

Luxembourg

(10)

Future 2012 – little central and southern countries

„

Source: IEA

Linear extrapolation - little central and southern EU countries

R2 = 0,9731

R2 = 0,9822 R2 = 0,9835 R2 = 0,9795

R2 = 0,8785 R2 = 0,886 R2 = 0,9434

0 10 20 30 40

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012

Transport CO

2

emissions / Tg

Netherlands

Belgium

Greece

Austria

Portugal

Ireland

Luxembourg

(11)

Future 2012 – little central and southern countries

„

Source: IEA

Second order polynomial extrapolation - little central and southern EU countries

R2 = 0,9731 R2 = 0,9865 R2 = 0,9885

R2 = 0,9798

R2 = 0,8923 R2 = 0,9833 R2 = 0,9839

0 10 20 30 40

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

2012

Transport CO2 emissions / Tg

Netherlands

Belgium

Greece

Austria

Portugal

Ireland

Luxembourg

(12)

History 1960-1999: Nordic countries

„

Source IEA

0 10 20 30

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Time/ Year

Transport CO2

emissions / Tg

Sweden

Denmark

Finland

(13)

Future 2012 – nordic countries

„

Source: IEA

Linear extrapolation - nordic EU countries

R2 = 0,9543

R2 = 0,9742 R2 = 0,9085

0 10 20 30

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

2012

Transport CO2 emissions / Tg

Sweden

Denmark

Finland

(14)

Future 2012 – nordic countries

„

Source: IEA

Second order polynomial extrapolation - nordic EU countries

R2 = 0,9755

R2 = 0,9832

R2 = 0,9462

0 10 20 30

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

2012

Transport CO2 emissions / Tg

Sweden

Finland

Denmark

(15)

History 1960-1999: USA, Japan and EU15

„

Source: IEA

Transport CO

2

in USA, EU15 and Japan in 1960-1999

0 500 1000 1500 2000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Time / Year

Transport CO

2

emissions / Tg

USA

EU15

Japan

(16)

Future 2012 - EU15, USA and Japan

„

Source: IEA

Transport CO

2

in USA, EU15 and Japan in 1960-1999; linear extrapolation for 2000-2012

R2 = 0,9329

R2 = 0,9916

R2 = 0,9858 0

500 1000 1500 2000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012

Transport CO2 emissions / Tg

USA

EU15

Japan

(17)

Future 2012 - EU15, USA and Japan

„

Source: IEA

Transport CO

2

in USA, EU15 and Japan in 1960-1999; second order polynomial extrapolation for 2000-2012

R2 = 0,9519

R2 = 0,9921

R2 = 0,9858

0 500 1000 1500 2000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012

Transport CO2 emissions / Tg

USA

EU15

Japan

(18)

Transport CO 2 intensity of the economy

„ Grouping as above

„ CO

2

/GDP by country

„ History 1960-1999

„ Future 2000-2012

(19)

History 1960-1999: Big countries

„

Source: IEA

Transport CO

2

intensity of the economy 1960-1999 - big EU countries

0 0,05 0,1 0,15 0,2

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Time/ Year

Transport CO2 / GDPppp

(Tg/109US$2000)

Spain UK France Germany Italy

(20)

Future 2012 – big countries

„

Source: IEA

Transport CO

2

intensity of the economy 1960-1999 and linear extrapolation for 2000-2012 - big EU countries

R2 = 0,5144 R2 = 0,3884

R2 = 0,8532 R2 = 0,788 R2 = 0,8714

0 0,05 0,1 0,15 0,2

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012

Transport CO2 / GDPppp

(Tg/109US$2000)

Spain UK France Germany Italy

(21)

Future 2012 – big countries

„

Source: IEA

Transport CO

2

intensity of the economy 1960-1999 and second order polynomial extrapolation for 2000-2012 - big EU countries

R2 = 0,7522

R2 = 0,4404 R2 = 0,8535

R2 = 0,8034 R2 = 0,9142

0 0,05 0,1 0,15 0,2

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012

Transport CO2 / GDPppp

(Tg/109US$2000)

Spain UK France Germany Italy

(22)

History 1960-1999: Little central and southern countries

„

Source: IEA

Transport CO

2

intensity of the economy 1960-1999 - little central and southern EU countries

0 0,05 0,1 0,15 0,2 0,25

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Time/Year

Transport CO2 / GDPppp

(Tg/109US$2000)

Luxembourg Greece Ireland Portugal Belgium Netherlands Austria

(23)

Future 2012 – little central and southern countries

„

Source: IEA

Transport CO

2

intensity of the economy 1960-1999 and linear extrapolation for 2000-2012 - little central and southern EU countries

R2 = 0,9352 R2 = 0,9072

R2 = 0,0376

R2 = 0,8452

R2 = 0,7673

R2 = 0,0123 R2 = 0,7449

0 0,05 0,1 0,15 0,2 0,25

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012

Transport CO2 / GDPppp

(Tg/109US$2000)

Luxembourg

Greece

Ireland

Portugal

Belgium

Netherlands

Austria

(24)

Future 2012 – little central and southern countries

„

Source: IEA

Transport CO2 intensity of the economy 1960-1999 and second order polynomial extrapolation for 2000-2012 - little central and southern EU countries

R2 = 0,9407

R2 = 0,926

R2 = 0,5666 R2 = 0,928

R2 = 0,8125 R2 = 0,0165 R2 = 0,8628

0 0,05 0,1 0,15 0,2 0,25

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012

Transport CO2 / GDPppp

(Tg/109US$2000)

Luxembourg

Greece

Portugal

Belgium

Austria

Netherlands

Ireland

(25)

History 1960-1999: Nordic countries

„

Source: IEA

Transport CO

2

intensity of the economy 1960-1999 - nordic EU countries

0 0,05 0,1 0,15 0,2

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Time/ Year

Transport CO2 / GDPppp

(Tg/109US$2000)

Sweden Finland Denmark

(26)

Future 2012 – nordic countries

„

Source: IEA

Transport CO

2

intensity of the economy 1960-1999 and linear extrapolation for 2000-2012 - nordic EU countries

R2 = 0,1638 R2 = 0,3574

R2 = 0,1265

0 0,05 0,1 0,15 0,2

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012

Transport CO2 / GDPppp

(Tg/109US$2000)

Finland

Sweden Denmark

(27)

Future 2012 – nordic countries

„

Source: IEA

Transport CO

2

intensity of the economy 1960-1999 and second order polynomial extrapolation for 2000-2012 - nordic EU countries

R2 = 0,374

R2 = 0,664

R2 = 0,651

0 0,05 0,1 0,15 0,2

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012

Transport CO2 / GDPppp

(Tg/109US$2000)

Sweden

Finland

Denmark

(28)

Comparison of EU15, USA and Japan

„ Transport CO

2

intensity of the economy

„ History 1960-1999

„ Future 2000-2012

(29)

History 1960-1999: EU15, USA and Japan

„

Source: IEA

0 0,05 0,1 0,15 0,2 0,25 0,3

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Time/ Year

Transport CO2 / GDPppp

(Tg/109US$2000)

USA

EU15

Japan

(30)

Future 2012 - EU15, USA and Japan

„

Source: IEA

Transport CO

2

intensity of the economy 1960-1999 and linear extrapolation for 2000-2012 - EU15, USA and Japan

R2 = 0,7669 R2 = 0,9171

R2 = 0,338

0 0,05 0,1 0,15 0,2 0,25 0,3

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012

Transport CO2 / GDPppp

(Tg/109US$2000)

USA

EU15

Japan

(31)

Future 2012 - EU15, USA and Japan

„

Source: IEA

Transport CO

2

intensity of the economy 1960-1999 and linear extrapolation for 2000-2012 - EU15, USA and Japan

R2 = 0,8605 R2 = 0,9173

R2 = 0,3506

0 0,05 0,1 0,15 0,2 0,25 0,3

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012

Transport CO2 / GDPppp

(Tg/109US$2000)

EU15

Japan

USA

(32)

Discussion

„ Substance

– Transport is an exceptional sector as the CO

2

intensity of the economy has not decreased – The countries receiving a lot of EU structural

funding have had high CO

2

growth rates

– USA has had decreasing transport CO

2

intensity figures but was still twice as high as EU15 in 1999

„ Methodology

– Extrapolation should be used very cautiously

even in what…if studies and even with BAU

analyses

(33)

References

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