What if BAU would come true?
Scanning transport CO 2 emissions in the EU
Petri Tapio & Jyrki Luukkanen
Finland Futures Research Centre
The approach
Introduction of general trends on EU15 level – GDP
– Transport CO
2emissions
Historical CO
2data by country – 1960-1999
Future extrapolations CO
2by country – 2000-2012
Historical transport CO
2intensity of the economy by country – CO
2/GDP 1960-1999
Future extrapolation of intensity by country – 2000-2012
Comparison with USA and Japan – history 1960-1999
– 2000-2012
Discussion
CO 2 emissions by sector in EU15 1985-1999
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
1985 1990 1995 2000
CO2
Emissions /106tn
Electricity & Heat Production
Transport
Household &
Commerce Industry
Energy Branch
Source of Data:
Eurostat 2000; 2002
GDP, passenger traffic, freight and traffic
CO 2 in EU15 in 1970-2000, scanning for 2012
Source: Eurostat
Passenger km R2 = 0,994 CO2 R2 = 0,977
Freight R2 = 0,954 GDPmer R2 = 0,991
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
1970 1980 1990 2000 2012
Real GDPmer, passenger transport and freight transport/
(index 1970=100);
CO
2emissions from transport/
(index 1985=150)
Passenger km CO2 from transport Freight (tnkm) GDPmer
Transport CO 2 emissions by country – EU15
Big countries
– France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK
Little central and southern countries
– Austria, Belgium, Greece, Ireland, Luxemburg, Netherlands, Portugal
Nordic countries
– Denmark, Finland, Sweden
History 1960-1999: Big EU countries
Source: IEA
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Time/ YearTransport CO2
emissions / Tg
Germany
France
UK
Italy
Spain
Future 2012 – big countries
Source: IEA
Linear extrapolation - big EU countries
R2 = 0,9762
R2 = 0,9701 R2 = 0,9912
R2 = 0,9958 R2 = 0,9446
0 50 100 150 200 250
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012
Transport CO2
emissions / Tg Germany
France
UK Italy
Spain
Future 2012 – big countries
Source: IEA
Second order polynomial extrapolation - big EU countries
R2 = 0,9804 R2 = 0,9804 R2 = 0,9912 R2 = 0,9959 R2 = 0,975
0 50 100 150 200 250
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
2012
Transport CO2
emissions / Tg Germany
UK
France Italy
Spain
History: Little central and southern countries (1960-1999)
Source: IEA
Transport CO
2in the little central and southern EU countries
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Time/Year
Transport CO2 emissions / Tg
Netherlands
Belgium
Greece
Austria
Portugal
Ireland
Luxembourg
Future 2012 – little central and southern countries
Source: IEA
Linear extrapolation - little central and southern EU countries
R2 = 0,9731
R2 = 0,9822 R2 = 0,9835 R2 = 0,9795
R2 = 0,8785 R2 = 0,886 R2 = 0,9434
0 10 20 30 40
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012
Transport CO
2emissions / Tg
Netherlands
Belgium
Greece
Austria
Portugal
Ireland
Luxembourg
Future 2012 – little central and southern countries
Source: IEA
Second order polynomial extrapolation - little central and southern EU countries
R2 = 0,9731 R2 = 0,9865 R2 = 0,9885
R2 = 0,9798
R2 = 0,8923 R2 = 0,9833 R2 = 0,9839
0 10 20 30 40
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
2012
Transport CO2 emissions / Tg
Netherlands
Belgium
Greece
Austria
Portugal
Ireland
Luxembourg
History 1960-1999: Nordic countries
Source IEA
0 10 20 30
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Time/ Year
Transport CO2
emissions / Tg
Sweden
Denmark
Finland
Future 2012 – nordic countries
Source: IEA
Linear extrapolation - nordic EU countries
R2 = 0,9543
R2 = 0,9742 R2 = 0,9085
0 10 20 30
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
2012
Transport CO2 emissions / Tg
Sweden
Denmark
Finland
Future 2012 – nordic countries
Source: IEA
Second order polynomial extrapolation - nordic EU countries
R2 = 0,9755
R2 = 0,9832
R2 = 0,9462
0 10 20 30
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
2012
Transport CO2 emissions / Tg
Sweden
Finland
Denmark
History 1960-1999: USA, Japan and EU15
Source: IEA
Transport CO
2in USA, EU15 and Japan in 1960-1999
0 500 1000 1500 2000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Time / Year
Transport CO
2emissions / Tg
USA
EU15
Japan
Future 2012 - EU15, USA and Japan
Source: IEA
Transport CO
2in USA, EU15 and Japan in 1960-1999; linear extrapolation for 2000-2012
R2 = 0,9329
R2 = 0,9916
R2 = 0,9858 0
500 1000 1500 2000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012
Transport CO2 emissions / Tg
USA
EU15
Japan
Future 2012 - EU15, USA and Japan
Source: IEA
Transport CO
2in USA, EU15 and Japan in 1960-1999; second order polynomial extrapolation for 2000-2012
R2 = 0,9519
R2 = 0,9921
R2 = 0,9858
0 500 1000 1500 2000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012
Transport CO2 emissions / Tg
USA
EU15
Japan
Transport CO 2 intensity of the economy
Grouping as above
CO
2/GDP by country
History 1960-1999
Future 2000-2012
History 1960-1999: Big countries
Source: IEA
Transport CO
2intensity of the economy 1960-1999 - big EU countries
0 0,05 0,1 0,15 0,2
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Time/ Year
Transport CO2 / GDPppp
(Tg/109US$2000)
Spain UK France Germany Italy
Future 2012 – big countries
Source: IEA
Transport CO
2intensity of the economy 1960-1999 and linear extrapolation for 2000-2012 - big EU countries
R2 = 0,5144 R2 = 0,3884
R2 = 0,8532 R2 = 0,788 R2 = 0,8714
0 0,05 0,1 0,15 0,2
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012
Transport CO2 / GDPppp
(Tg/109US$2000)
Spain UK France Germany Italy
Future 2012 – big countries
Source: IEA
Transport CO
2intensity of the economy 1960-1999 and second order polynomial extrapolation for 2000-2012 - big EU countries
R2 = 0,7522
R2 = 0,4404 R2 = 0,8535
R2 = 0,8034 R2 = 0,9142
0 0,05 0,1 0,15 0,2
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012
Transport CO2 / GDPppp
(Tg/109US$2000)
Spain UK France Germany Italy
History 1960-1999: Little central and southern countries
Source: IEA
Transport CO
2intensity of the economy 1960-1999 - little central and southern EU countries
0 0,05 0,1 0,15 0,2 0,25
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Time/Year
Transport CO2 / GDPppp
(Tg/109US$2000)
Luxembourg Greece Ireland Portugal Belgium Netherlands Austria
Future 2012 – little central and southern countries
Source: IEA
Transport CO
2intensity of the economy 1960-1999 and linear extrapolation for 2000-2012 - little central and southern EU countries
R2 = 0,9352 R2 = 0,9072
R2 = 0,0376
R2 = 0,8452
R2 = 0,7673
R2 = 0,0123 R2 = 0,7449
0 0,05 0,1 0,15 0,2 0,25
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012
Transport CO2 / GDPppp
(Tg/109US$2000)
Luxembourg
Greece
Ireland
Portugal
Belgium
Netherlands
Austria
Future 2012 – little central and southern countries
Source: IEA
Transport CO2 intensity of the economy 1960-1999 and second order polynomial extrapolation for 2000-2012 - little central and southern EU countries
R2 = 0,9407
R2 = 0,926
R2 = 0,5666 R2 = 0,928
R2 = 0,8125 R2 = 0,0165 R2 = 0,8628
0 0,05 0,1 0,15 0,2 0,25
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012
Transport CO2 / GDPppp
(Tg/109US$2000)
Luxembourg
Greece
Portugal
Belgium
Austria
Netherlands
Ireland
History 1960-1999: Nordic countries
Source: IEA
Transport CO
2intensity of the economy 1960-1999 - nordic EU countries
0 0,05 0,1 0,15 0,2
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Time/ Year
Transport CO2 / GDPppp
(Tg/109US$2000)
Sweden Finland Denmark
Future 2012 – nordic countries
Source: IEA
Transport CO
2intensity of the economy 1960-1999 and linear extrapolation for 2000-2012 - nordic EU countries
R2 = 0,1638 R2 = 0,3574
R2 = 0,1265
0 0,05 0,1 0,15 0,2
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012
Transport CO2 / GDPppp
(Tg/109US$2000)
Finland
Sweden Denmark
Future 2012 – nordic countries
Source: IEA
Transport CO
2intensity of the economy 1960-1999 and second order polynomial extrapolation for 2000-2012 - nordic EU countries
R2 = 0,374
R2 = 0,664
R2 = 0,651
0 0,05 0,1 0,15 0,2
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012
Transport CO2 / GDPppp
(Tg/109US$2000)
Sweden
Finland
Denmark
Comparison of EU15, USA and Japan
Transport CO
2intensity of the economy
History 1960-1999
Future 2000-2012
History 1960-1999: EU15, USA and Japan
Source: IEA
0 0,05 0,1 0,15 0,2 0,25 0,3
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Time/ Year
Transport CO2 / GDPppp
(Tg/109US$2000)
USA
EU15
Japan
Future 2012 - EU15, USA and Japan
Source: IEA
Transport CO
2intensity of the economy 1960-1999 and linear extrapolation for 2000-2012 - EU15, USA and Japan
R2 = 0,7669 R2 = 0,9171
R2 = 0,338
0 0,05 0,1 0,15 0,2 0,25 0,3
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012
Transport CO2 / GDPppp
(Tg/109US$2000)
USA
EU15
Japan
Future 2012 - EU15, USA and Japan
Source: IEA
Transport CO
2intensity of the economy 1960-1999 and linear extrapolation for 2000-2012 - EU15, USA and Japan
R2 = 0,8605 R2 = 0,9173
R2 = 0,3506
0 0,05 0,1 0,15 0,2 0,25 0,3
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012
Transport CO2 / GDPppp
(Tg/109US$2000)
EU15
Japan
USA